Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 3–6 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 223 210–233 206–236 204–241 198–241
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–147 125–151 124–152 119–153
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 113–129 111–132 109–134 106–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–83 67–85 65–87 63–90
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 66 62–75 61–77 59–78 57–81
Die Linke 69 53 48–59 45–61 45–62 43–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 40 0–45 0–47 0–49 0–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0.1% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.1% 99.4%  
200 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.0%  
202 0.6% 98.7%  
203 0.5% 98%  
204 0.9% 98%  
205 1.0% 97%  
206 2% 96%  
207 0.7% 94%  
208 1.3% 93%  
209 2% 92%  
210 2% 90%  
211 1.0% 88%  
212 1.0% 87%  
213 2% 86%  
214 5% 84%  
215 2% 79%  
216 0.5% 77%  
217 3% 76%  
218 3% 73%  
219 8% 70%  
220 1.4% 62%  
221 1.2% 61%  
222 3% 60%  
223 18% 56% Median
224 4% 39%  
225 1.2% 35%  
226 5% 34%  
227 6% 29%  
228 2% 23%  
229 0.8% 21%  
230 3% 20%  
231 2% 17%  
232 3% 15%  
233 3% 12%  
234 0.3% 9%  
235 0.4% 9%  
236 4% 8%  
237 2% 5%  
238 0.3% 3%  
239 0.1% 3%  
240 0.4% 3%  
241 2% 3%  
242 0% 0.4%  
243 0% 0.4%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0.3% 99.4%  
122 0.5% 99.1%  
123 0.7% 98.6%  
124 1.4% 98%  
125 2% 96%  
126 3% 95%  
127 2% 92%  
128 2% 90%  
129 1.2% 88%  
130 4% 87%  
131 5% 83%  
132 4% 78%  
133 15% 75%  
134 5% 60%  
135 8% 55% Median
136 3% 47%  
137 3% 44%  
138 4% 41%  
139 5% 37%  
140 4% 32%  
141 5% 28%  
142 4% 24%  
143 3% 20%  
144 3% 16%  
145 0.9% 14%  
146 2% 13%  
147 1.1% 10%  
148 0.8% 9%  
149 2% 8%  
150 2% 7%  
151 1.3% 5%  
152 3% 4%  
153 0.4% 0.9%  
154 0.1% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.4%  
108 0.5% 99.0%  
109 2% 98.5%  
110 1.3% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 2% 93%  
113 1.0% 91%  
114 3% 90%  
115 3% 86%  
116 4% 83%  
117 6% 80%  
118 3% 74%  
119 9% 71%  
120 5% 62%  
121 4% 57%  
122 15% 53% Median
123 3% 38%  
124 4% 35%  
125 4% 31%  
126 4% 28%  
127 5% 24%  
128 4% 19%  
129 5% 15%  
130 3% 10%  
131 2% 7%  
132 1.4% 5%  
133 1.2% 4%  
134 0.9% 3%  
135 0.2% 2%  
136 0.3% 2%  
137 0.6% 1.3%  
138 0.1% 0.8%  
139 0.3% 0.7%  
140 0.1% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 99.0%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 1.4% 95%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 91%  
70 3% 87%  
71 3% 85%  
72 5% 82%  
73 15% 77%  
74 5% 62%  
75 12% 57% Median
76 8% 45%  
77 4% 37%  
78 8% 33%  
79 2% 26%  
80 5% 23%  
81 3% 18%  
82 3% 15%  
83 3% 12%  
84 3% 9%  
85 1.4% 6%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.2% 1.1%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 5% 95%  
62 6% 91%  
63 11% 85%  
64 4% 74%  
65 17% 70%  
66 4% 53% Median
67 6% 49%  
68 4% 43%  
69 5% 39%  
70 4% 34%  
71 5% 30%  
72 5% 25%  
73 4% 20%  
74 4% 16%  
75 4% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.5% 2%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 1.2% 99.5%  
45 4% 98%  
46 1.0% 95%  
47 1.1% 94%  
48 5% 93%  
49 8% 87%  
50 6% 80%  
51 4% 73%  
52 7% 70%  
53 22% 63% Median
54 9% 40%  
55 5% 32%  
56 3% 27%  
57 10% 24%  
58 4% 14%  
59 2% 10%  
60 2% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.2%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 0% 78%  
2 0% 78%  
3 0% 78%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0% 78%  
7 0% 78%  
8 0% 78%  
9 0% 78%  
10 0% 78%  
11 0% 78%  
12 0% 78%  
13 0% 78%  
14 0% 78%  
15 0% 78%  
16 0% 78%  
17 0% 78%  
18 0% 78%  
19 0% 78%  
20 0% 78%  
21 0% 78%  
22 0% 78%  
23 0% 78%  
24 0% 78%  
25 0% 78%  
26 0% 78%  
27 0% 78%  
28 0% 78%  
29 0% 78%  
30 0% 78%  
31 0% 78%  
32 0% 78%  
33 0% 78%  
34 0% 78%  
35 0% 78%  
36 0% 78%  
37 0.1% 78%  
38 7% 78%  
39 5% 71%  
40 21% 66% Median
41 11% 45%  
42 8% 34%  
43 10% 26%  
44 6% 17%  
45 3% 11%  
46 2% 8%  
47 1.3% 6%  
48 2% 5%  
49 0.7% 3%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 543 100% 533–575 530–578 527–580 523–584
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 460 100% 446–470 444–475 440–478 433–482
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 446 100% 428–456 424–458 420–461 413–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 421 100% 410–449 409–453 406–457 401–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 410 100% 397–431 394–437 392–439 385–445
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 400 100% 384–411 379–414 376–416 368–422
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 361 81% 351–387 347–389 344–393 338–396
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 326 0% 304–336 298–339 296–341 287–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 309 0% 298–325 295–330 293–333 287–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 295 0% 265–307 263–309 262–312 258–317
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 255 0% 246–270 243–277 241–279 235–285
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 164–184 161–186 159–189 156–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 126–170 120–172 119–174 116–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 100%  
518 0% 99.9%  
519 0.1% 99.9%  
520 0.1% 99.8%  
521 0% 99.7%  
522 0.1% 99.7%  
523 0.1% 99.5%  
524 0.7% 99.4%  
525 0.2% 98.8%  
526 0.7% 98.6%  
527 0.9% 98%  
528 0.3% 97%  
529 0.4% 97%  
530 2% 96%  
531 2% 94%  
532 1.0% 92%  
533 1.4% 91%  
534 2% 90%  
535 3% 88%  
536 8% 86%  
537 2% 78%  
538 3% 76%  
539 7% 73%  
540 5% 66%  
541 1.0% 62%  
542 3% 61%  
543 15% 58%  
544 2% 43%  
545 2% 40%  
546 6% 39% Median
547 0.4% 33%  
548 1.3% 32%  
549 3% 31%  
550 1.4% 28%  
551 2% 26%  
552 0.5% 25%  
553 0.3% 24%  
554 0.8% 24%  
555 0.5% 23%  
556 0% 23%  
557 0.3% 23%  
558 0.2% 22%  
559 0.2% 22%  
560 0% 22%  
561 0.1% 22%  
562 0.3% 22%  
563 0.1% 21%  
564 2% 21%  
565 0.7% 19%  
566 0.2% 19%  
567 1.0% 19%  
568 0.6% 18%  
569 0.5% 17%  
570 0.7% 17%  
571 2% 16%  
572 2% 14%  
573 0.4% 11%  
574 0.8% 11%  
575 1.4% 10%  
576 0.1% 9%  
577 4% 9%  
578 2% 5%  
579 0.2% 3%  
580 0.9% 3%  
581 0.2% 2%  
582 0% 2%  
583 0.8% 2%  
584 0.5% 0.9%  
585 0% 0.5%  
586 0.1% 0.4%  
587 0.1% 0.3%  
588 0.1% 0.2%  
589 0% 0.2%  
590 0.1% 0.1%  
591 0% 0.1%  
592 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.1% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.7%  
432 0.1% 99.6%  
433 0.4% 99.6%  
434 0% 99.1%  
435 0.2% 99.1%  
436 0.1% 98.9%  
437 0.5% 98.8%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.2% 98%  
440 0.9% 98%  
441 0.8% 97%  
442 0.6% 96%  
443 0.2% 95%  
444 3% 95%  
445 2% 93%  
446 1.0% 91%  
447 0.6% 90%  
448 2% 89%  
449 5% 87%  
450 2% 82%  
451 4% 80%  
452 2% 76%  
453 4% 74%  
454 4% 69%  
455 2% 66%  
456 2% 64%  
457 3% 62%  
458 5% 60%  
459 3% 55%  
460 2% 51%  
461 16% 50%  
462 2% 34%  
463 4% 32%  
464 3% 28% Median
465 2% 25%  
466 2% 23%  
467 5% 21%  
468 0.8% 16%  
469 1.3% 15%  
470 4% 13%  
471 1.4% 10%  
472 0.4% 8%  
473 2% 8%  
474 0.6% 6%  
475 2% 5%  
476 0.1% 3%  
477 0.3% 3%  
478 1.3% 3%  
479 0.7% 1.4%  
480 0% 0.7%  
481 0.2% 0.7%  
482 0.3% 0.5%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0.1% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
409 0.1% 100%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.8%  
413 0.5% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.3%  
415 0.1% 99.2%  
416 0.3% 99.2%  
417 0.9% 98.8%  
418 0.1% 98%  
419 0.3% 98%  
420 0.3% 98%  
421 2% 97%  
422 0.2% 96%  
423 0.1% 95%  
424 1.0% 95%  
425 3% 94%  
426 0.3% 91%  
427 0.3% 91%  
428 2% 91%  
429 0.6% 89%  
430 2% 88%  
431 1.0% 87%  
432 1.2% 86%  
433 3% 85%  
434 0.7% 81%  
435 0.6% 81%  
436 1.4% 80%  
437 4% 79%  
438 0.7% 75%  
439 6% 74%  
440 1.1% 69%  
441 3% 68%  
442 6% 65%  
443 2% 59%  
444 1.2% 57%  
445 3% 56%  
446 6% 53%  
447 4% 47%  
448 2% 42%  
449 4% 41%  
450 15% 36%  
451 1.2% 22% Median
452 4% 20%  
453 4% 17%  
454 0.8% 13%  
455 0.6% 12%  
456 3% 11%  
457 2% 8%  
458 0.6% 5%  
459 1.2% 5%  
460 1.0% 4%  
461 0.4% 3%  
462 0.2% 2%  
463 1.1% 2%  
464 0.4% 1.1%  
465 0.1% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.5%  
467 0.2% 0.4%  
468 0.1% 0.3%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0.1% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.2% 99.7%  
401 0.3% 99.5%  
402 0.3% 99.2%  
403 0.3% 99.0%  
404 0.6% 98.7%  
405 0.2% 98%  
406 0.5% 98%  
407 0.9% 97%  
408 1.1% 97%  
409 1.1% 95%  
410 5% 94%  
411 2% 89%  
412 0.7% 88%  
413 2% 87%  
414 3% 85%  
415 2% 81%  
416 2% 79%  
417 7% 77%  
418 0.8% 70%  
419 4% 69%  
420 0.9% 66%  
421 17% 65%  
422 1.2% 48%  
423 2% 47%  
424 6% 45% Median
425 2% 39%  
426 0.3% 37%  
427 3% 37%  
428 2% 34%  
429 1.0% 32%  
430 2% 31%  
431 2% 29%  
432 0.6% 27%  
433 0.6% 26%  
434 0.7% 26%  
435 0.9% 25%  
436 1.2% 24%  
437 0.7% 23%  
438 0.6% 22%  
439 1.2% 22%  
440 0.9% 20%  
441 0.9% 20%  
442 0.5% 19%  
443 0.2% 18%  
444 2% 18%  
445 2% 16%  
446 0.2% 14%  
447 0.4% 14%  
448 2% 13%  
449 2% 12%  
450 2% 9%  
451 0.1% 7%  
452 2% 7%  
453 2% 5%  
454 0.1% 3%  
455 0.2% 3%  
456 0.1% 3%  
457 1.4% 3%  
458 0% 2%  
459 0.1% 2%  
460 0.1% 1.4%  
461 0.9% 1.3%  
462 0% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0.2% 0.3%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
380 0% 100%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0% 99.8%  
384 0% 99.8%  
385 0.4% 99.7%  
386 0.3% 99.3%  
387 0.2% 99.0%  
388 0.2% 98.8%  
389 0.4% 98.6%  
390 0.3% 98%  
391 0.3% 98%  
392 0.6% 98%  
393 1.4% 97%  
394 0.7% 96%  
395 2% 95%  
396 1.2% 93%  
397 3% 92%  
398 1.1% 89%  
399 1.2% 88% Last Result
400 2% 86%  
401 7% 84%  
402 3% 77%  
403 3% 74%  
404 1.1% 72%  
405 9% 71%  
406 2% 62%  
407 1.1% 60%  
408 2% 59%  
409 5% 57%  
410 14% 52%  
411 0.5% 38% Median
412 3% 38%  
413 4% 35%  
414 0.7% 31%  
415 0.4% 30%  
416 3% 30%  
417 2% 26%  
418 0.5% 24%  
419 1.1% 24%  
420 0.9% 22%  
421 2% 21%  
422 0.5% 19%  
423 0.3% 19%  
424 1.2% 19%  
425 3% 17%  
426 0.2% 14%  
427 0.3% 14%  
428 1.2% 14%  
429 0.6% 13%  
430 2% 12%  
431 0.6% 10%  
432 0.7% 10%  
433 3% 9%  
434 0.1% 6%  
435 0.3% 6%  
436 0.5% 6%  
437 2% 5%  
438 0.1% 3%  
439 2% 3%  
440 0.1% 1.5%  
441 0.3% 1.3%  
442 0.2% 1.1%  
443 0.1% 0.8%  
444 0.1% 0.8%  
445 0.3% 0.7%  
446 0.1% 0.4%  
447 0% 0.3%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0% 99.6%  
367 0% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.6%  
369 0% 99.5%  
370 0% 99.4%  
371 0.1% 99.4%  
372 0% 99.3%  
373 0.1% 99.2%  
374 0.3% 99.1%  
375 0.3% 98.8%  
376 2% 98%  
377 0.6% 96%  
378 0.1% 96%  
379 1.2% 96%  
380 1.2% 95%  
381 0.3% 93%  
382 0.7% 93%  
383 2% 92%  
384 2% 90%  
385 0.4% 88%  
386 2% 88%  
387 3% 86%  
388 3% 83%  
389 4% 80%  
390 0.9% 76%  
391 2% 75%  
392 3% 74%  
393 4% 70%  
394 1.1% 66%  
395 5% 65%  
396 3% 61%  
397 0.8% 58%  
398 6% 57%  
399 1.2% 52%  
400 3% 50%  
401 14% 47%  
402 2% 33%  
403 2% 31%  
404 3% 29% Median
405 4% 26%  
406 2% 23%  
407 4% 20%  
408 3% 17%  
409 1.3% 14%  
410 3% 13%  
411 3% 10%  
412 1.2% 8%  
413 0.9% 6%  
414 1.2% 5%  
415 1.1% 4%  
416 0.9% 3%  
417 0.3% 2%  
418 0.6% 2%  
419 0.3% 1.3%  
420 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
421 0.2% 0.8%  
422 0.3% 0.6%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0.1% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.2% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.6%  
339 0.2% 99.5%  
340 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
341 0.3% 99.1%  
342 0.1% 98.8%  
343 0.9% 98.7%  
344 0.9% 98%  
345 0.3% 97%  
346 0.9% 97%  
347 2% 96%  
348 0.7% 94%  
349 0.4% 93%  
350 1.4% 93%  
351 2% 92%  
352 5% 90%  
353 1.4% 84%  
354 2% 83%  
355 0.7% 81% Majority
356 2% 80%  
357 7% 78%  
358 3% 70%  
359 2% 68%  
360 4% 66%  
361 14% 63%  
362 3% 49%  
363 4% 46%  
364 3% 41% Median
365 3% 39%  
366 0.7% 35%  
367 3% 34%  
368 1.1% 32%  
369 0.3% 31%  
370 1.0% 30%  
371 2% 29%  
372 1.4% 27%  
373 1.3% 26%  
374 0.9% 25%  
375 0.7% 24%  
376 2% 23%  
377 2% 21%  
378 0.3% 19%  
379 1.2% 19%  
380 1.0% 17%  
381 0.4% 16%  
382 0.8% 16%  
383 1.1% 15%  
384 1.0% 14%  
385 0.3% 13%  
386 2% 13%  
387 3% 11%  
388 1.5% 9%  
389 3% 7%  
390 0.1% 5%  
391 0.4% 5%  
392 1.5% 4%  
393 0.3% 3%  
394 0.2% 2%  
395 2% 2%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.4% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.3%  
289 0% 99.1%  
290 0.1% 99.0%  
291 0% 98.9%  
292 0.4% 98.9%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.3% 97%  
298 2% 97%  
299 2% 95%  
300 0.4% 93%  
301 0.3% 93%  
302 2% 93%  
303 0.3% 90%  
304 1.4% 90%  
305 0.1% 89%  
306 2% 89%  
307 0.9% 87%  
308 2% 86%  
309 3% 84%  
310 0.3% 81%  
311 0.3% 80%  
312 0.6% 80%  
313 6% 79%  
314 0.6% 74%  
315 0.4% 73%  
316 1.0% 73%  
317 5% 72%  
318 3% 67%  
319 1.1% 65%  
320 0.6% 64%  
321 2% 63%  
322 1.5% 61%  
323 8% 60%  
324 1.1% 52%  
325 0.7% 51%  
326 2% 50% Last Result
327 4% 48%  
328 13% 44%  
329 2% 31% Median
330 1.0% 28%  
331 2% 27%  
332 6% 25%  
333 6% 19%  
334 1.0% 13%  
335 0.5% 12%  
336 3% 12%  
337 1.1% 8%  
338 2% 7%  
339 0.9% 5%  
340 0.8% 4%  
341 1.4% 4%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.2%  
345 0.3% 1.0%  
346 0.2% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.2% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.3% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
290 0.3% 99.0%  
291 0.6% 98.7%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.9% 98%  
294 1.1% 97%  
295 1.2% 96%  
296 0.9% 95%  
297 1.2% 94%  
298 3% 92%  
299 3% 90%  
300 1.3% 87%  
301 3% 86%  
302 4% 83%  
303 2% 80%  
304 4% 77%  
305 3% 74%  
306 2% 71%  
307 2% 69%  
308 14% 67%  
309 3% 53%  
310 1.2% 50% Median
311 6% 48%  
312 0.8% 43%  
313 3% 42%  
314 5% 39%  
315 1.1% 35%  
316 4% 34%  
317 3% 30%  
318 2% 26%  
319 0.9% 25%  
320 4% 24%  
321 3% 20%  
322 3% 17%  
323 2% 14%  
324 0.4% 12%  
325 2% 12%  
326 2% 10%  
327 0.7% 8%  
328 0.3% 7%  
329 1.2% 7%  
330 1.2% 5%  
331 0.1% 4%  
332 0.6% 4%  
333 2% 4%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.2%  
336 0.1% 0.9%  
337 0% 0.8%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0% 0.6%  
340 0% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.2% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.5%  
259 0% 99.4%  
260 0.4% 99.4%  
261 0.6% 98.9%  
262 1.4% 98%  
263 4% 97%  
264 2% 93%  
265 2% 91%  
266 0.2% 89%  
267 0.7% 89%  
268 2% 88%  
269 2% 87%  
270 0.5% 85%  
271 0.8% 85%  
272 0.2% 84%  
273 0.1% 84%  
274 0.1% 83%  
275 0.1% 83%  
276 0.4% 83%  
277 0.8% 83%  
278 0.4% 82%  
279 3% 82%  
280 0.3% 79%  
281 3% 79%  
282 0.3% 76%  
283 1.0% 76%  
284 0.6% 75%  
285 2% 74%  
286 0.4% 72%  
287 1.1% 72%  
288 1.3% 71%  
289 2% 70%  
290 3% 67%  
291 1.3% 64%  
292 5% 63%  
293 4% 58%  
294 2% 54%  
295 17% 52%  
296 3% 35%  
297 5% 32% Median
298 2% 27%  
299 3% 25%  
300 1.0% 22% Last Result
301 0.7% 21%  
302 0.5% 20%  
303 0.8% 20%  
304 4% 19%  
305 2% 15%  
306 0.9% 13%  
307 3% 12%  
308 2% 9%  
309 2% 7%  
310 0.5% 5%  
311 1.0% 4%  
312 1.2% 3%  
313 0.3% 2%  
314 0.6% 2%  
315 0.4% 1.3%  
316 0.2% 1.0%  
317 0.3% 0.8%  
318 0.2% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.3% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0.4% 99.3%  
239 0.2% 98.8%  
240 1.1% 98.6%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.3% 97%  
243 3% 97%  
244 0.8% 94%  
245 2% 93%  
246 2% 91%  
247 2% 89%  
248 4% 88%  
249 1.4% 83%  
250 3% 82%  
251 2% 79%  
252 0.8% 77%  
253 1.4% 76%  
254 11% 75%  
255 15% 64%  
256 6% 49%  
257 2% 43% Median
258 0.6% 41%  
259 0.4% 40%  
260 1.1% 40%  
261 1.1% 39%  
262 2% 38%  
263 8% 36%  
264 3% 28%  
265 5% 26%  
266 0.9% 21%  
267 1.1% 20%  
268 2% 19%  
269 5% 16%  
270 2% 11%  
271 2% 9%  
272 0.4% 7%  
273 0.1% 7%  
274 0.3% 7%  
275 0.4% 7%  
276 0.5% 6%  
277 0.9% 6%  
278 0.4% 5%  
279 3% 4%  
280 0.2% 2%  
281 0.7% 2%  
282 0% 0.8%  
283 0.2% 0.8%  
284 0.1% 0.6%  
285 0.2% 0.5%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0.1% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.2% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.6%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.2% 99.4%  
158 0.4% 99.2%  
159 2% 98.7%  
160 0.7% 97%  
161 2% 96%  
162 1.0% 95%  
163 2% 94%  
164 3% 92%  
165 2% 89%  
166 3% 87%  
167 0.4% 85%  
168 4% 84%  
169 3% 80%  
170 3% 78%  
171 6% 75%  
172 3% 69%  
173 4% 66%  
174 3% 62%  
175 16% 59% Median
176 7% 43%  
177 2% 36%  
178 4% 34%  
179 3% 30%  
180 5% 28%  
181 5% 23%  
182 5% 18%  
183 2% 13%  
184 2% 11%  
185 4% 9%  
186 0.5% 5%  
187 2% 5%  
188 0.4% 3%  
189 1.0% 3%  
190 0.4% 2%  
191 0.3% 1.3%  
192 0.1% 1.1%  
193 0.1% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.8%  
195 0.2% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.4% 99.7%  
117 0.7% 99.2%  
118 1.0% 98.6%  
119 2% 98%  
120 1.3% 96%  
121 1.0% 94%  
122 2% 93%  
123 0.4% 92%  
124 0.6% 91%  
125 0.6% 91%  
126 2% 90%  
127 3% 88%  
128 2% 84%  
129 0.8% 82%  
130 0.9% 81%  
131 0.6% 80%  
132 0.4% 80%  
133 0.1% 80%  
134 0.5% 79%  
135 0.1% 79%  
136 0.2% 79%  
137 0.4% 79%  
138 0.1% 78%  
139 0.3% 78%  
140 0% 78%  
141 0.1% 78%  
142 0.1% 78%  
143 0.1% 78%  
144 0.1% 78%  
145 0.1% 78%  
146 0.1% 77%  
147 0.2% 77%  
148 1.3% 77%  
149 0.2% 76%  
150 2% 76%  
151 0.4% 74%  
152 0.9% 74%  
153 1.0% 73%  
154 1.4% 72%  
155 3% 70%  
156 2% 68%  
157 3% 65%  
158 2% 62%  
159 3% 61%  
160 6% 58%  
161 4% 51%  
162 17% 47% Median
163 5% 30%  
164 0.6% 25%  
165 3% 24%  
166 3% 22%  
167 1.3% 19%  
168 3% 17%  
169 3% 15%  
170 5% 12%  
171 2% 7%  
172 2% 5%  
173 1.0% 4%  
174 0.8% 3%  
175 0.6% 2%  
176 0.3% 1.5%  
177 0.3% 1.1%  
178 0.1% 0.8%  
179 0.1% 0.6%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

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