Opinion Poll by Kantar, 2–8 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.7–31.4% 28.4–31.8% 28.1–32.2% 27.4–32.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.6–18.5% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.5% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.5–8.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 225 214–235 211–237 209–240 205–247
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 119–135 116–138 114–140 111–145
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 119 112–128 109–130 108–132 104–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 68–82 66–84 65–85 62–89
Die Linke 69 67 61–74 59–76 58–77 55–81
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 46–58 45–59 44–61 41–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–51 39–52 37–53 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 99.9% Last Result
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.2% 99.6%  
206 0.4% 99.4%  
207 0.2% 99.0%  
208 0.8% 98.8%  
209 1.0% 98%  
210 0.4% 97%  
211 2% 97%  
212 1.4% 94%  
213 2% 93%  
214 4% 91%  
215 2% 87%  
216 4% 85%  
217 4% 80%  
218 3% 76%  
219 5% 73%  
220 4% 68%  
221 3% 65%  
222 4% 62%  
223 3% 57%  
224 3% 55%  
225 4% 52% Median
226 3% 48%  
227 2% 45%  
228 6% 43%  
229 3% 37%  
230 4% 34%  
231 7% 31%  
232 2% 23%  
233 5% 21%  
234 4% 15%  
235 1.4% 11%  
236 4% 10%  
237 1.3% 6%  
238 0.8% 5%  
239 1.5% 4%  
240 0.6% 3%  
241 0.3% 2%  
242 0.5% 2%  
243 0.2% 1.1%  
244 0.2% 1.0%  
245 0.2% 0.8%  
246 0.1% 0.6%  
247 0.1% 0.6%  
248 0.1% 0.5%  
249 0% 0.3%  
250 0.1% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.4% 99.3%  
113 0.6% 98.9%  
114 0.9% 98%  
115 1.1% 97%  
116 1.5% 96%  
117 2% 95%  
118 3% 93%  
119 4% 90%  
120 3% 87%  
121 5% 84%  
122 4% 79%  
123 6% 74%  
124 7% 68%  
125 5% 61%  
126 6% 56%  
127 5% 50% Median
128 5% 46%  
129 6% 40%  
130 6% 34%  
131 4% 28%  
132 5% 24%  
133 4% 20%  
134 3% 16%  
135 3% 13%  
136 2% 10%  
137 2% 8%  
138 1.5% 5%  
139 0.9% 4%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.5%  
143 0.3% 1.1%  
144 0.2% 0.8%  
145 0.2% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.4% 99.3%  
106 0.5% 98.9%  
107 0.8% 98%  
108 1.5% 98%  
109 2% 96%  
110 2% 95%  
111 3% 93%  
112 4% 90%  
113 5% 86%  
114 4% 82%  
115 6% 78%  
116 5% 72%  
117 6% 67%  
118 6% 61%  
119 7% 55% Median
120 5% 48%  
121 6% 44%  
122 7% 38%  
123 6% 31%  
124 4% 25%  
125 5% 21%  
126 3% 16%  
127 3% 13%  
128 2% 11%  
129 2% 8%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.1% 4%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.5% 2%  
135 0.3% 1.1%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.6% 99.4%  
64 1.0% 98.8%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 3% 91%  
69 5% 88%  
70 5% 83%  
71 7% 78%  
72 7% 71%  
73 6% 64%  
74 7% 58%  
75 8% 51% Median
76 7% 42%  
77 7% 36%  
78 4% 29%  
79 5% 25%  
80 5% 19%  
81 4% 15%  
82 3% 11%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.3% 4%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.4%  
88 0.3% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 0.6% 98.8%  
58 1.4% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 5% 93%  
62 4% 88%  
63 8% 84%  
64 4% 77%  
65 10% 73%  
66 7% 63%  
67 7% 55% Median
68 8% 48%  
69 7% 40% Last Result
70 8% 33%  
71 4% 25%  
72 6% 21%  
73 3% 14%  
74 4% 11%  
75 2% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.5% 4%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.9%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.7% 99.4%  
43 1.1% 98.6%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 4% 93% Last Result
47 5% 88%  
48 9% 83%  
49 8% 74%  
50 7% 66%  
51 10% 59% Median
52 9% 49%  
53 7% 40%  
54 8% 33%  
55 6% 26%  
56 5% 20%  
57 4% 14%  
58 3% 11%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0.3% 98%  
38 2% 97%  
39 3% 96%  
40 6% 92%  
41 6% 87%  
42 9% 81%  
43 8% 72%  
44 9% 64%  
45 11% 55% Median
46 8% 44%  
47 7% 36%  
48 7% 29%  
49 6% 22%  
50 5% 16%  
51 4% 11%  
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.4%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 522 100% 511–533 509–536 507–542 502–563
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 448 100% 436–459 433–461 431–462 423–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 441 100% 429–450 425–454 422–456 415–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 403 100% 392–415 388–418 386–423 381–437
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 396 100% 385–407 381–411 379–416 374–428
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 396 100% 384–406 381–409 377–412 368–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 33% 340–362 337–366 334–371 329–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 321 0% 309–332 305–334 300–337 288–342
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 313 0% 303–325 300–328 297–332 292–341
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 291 0% 280–302 276–305 271–307 257–312
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 246 0% 236–257 233–260 231–263 226–271
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 194 0% 184–204 182–207 179–210 175–216
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 162–181 159–184 152–186 130–191

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0.1% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.8%  
502 0.2% 99.7%  
503 0.1% 99.5%  
504 0.4% 99.4%  
505 0.2% 99.0%  
506 0.9% 98.8%  
507 0.4% 98%  
508 2% 97%  
509 1.3% 96%  
510 2% 95%  
511 3% 93%  
512 2% 90%  
513 4% 88%  
514 2% 84%  
515 5% 82%  
516 2% 78%  
517 4% 76%  
518 4% 72%  
519 4% 68%  
520 7% 64%  
521 3% 58%  
522 8% 55% Median
523 2% 47%  
524 7% 45%  
525 3% 37%  
526 4% 35%  
527 4% 30%  
528 3% 26%  
529 3% 23%  
530 3% 20%  
531 4% 17%  
532 2% 13%  
533 3% 11%  
534 2% 8%  
535 0.8% 6%  
536 1.0% 5%  
537 0.4% 4%  
538 0.6% 4%  
539 0.2% 3%  
540 0.2% 3%  
541 0.1% 3%  
542 0.1% 3%  
543 0.1% 2%  
544 0.1% 2%  
545 0.1% 2%  
546 0% 2%  
547 0% 2%  
548 0% 2%  
549 0.1% 2%  
550 0.1% 2%  
551 0.1% 2%  
552 0.2% 2%  
553 0.1% 2%  
554 0.1% 2%  
555 0.3% 1.5%  
556 0.1% 1.2%  
557 0.1% 1.1%  
558 0.1% 1.0%  
559 0.1% 0.9%  
560 0.1% 0.8%  
561 0.1% 0.7%  
562 0.1% 0.6%  
563 0.1% 0.6%  
564 0.1% 0.4%  
565 0.1% 0.4%  
566 0.1% 0.3%  
567 0% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0% 99.7%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.6%  
423 0.2% 99.5%  
424 0.2% 99.3%  
425 0.2% 99.1%  
426 0.2% 99.0%  
427 0.2% 98.8%  
428 0.2% 98.6%  
429 0.3% 98%  
430 0.5% 98%  
431 0.7% 98%  
432 2% 97%  
433 1.1% 95%  
434 2% 94%  
435 1.4% 92%  
436 1.2% 90%  
437 0.9% 89%  
438 1.0% 88%  
439 3% 87%  
440 3% 84%  
441 4% 82%  
442 6% 78%  
443 7% 72%  
444 4% 66%  
445 2% 62%  
446 3% 59%  
447 2% 56%  
448 5% 54% Median
449 4% 49%  
450 6% 45%  
451 8% 39%  
452 5% 31%  
453 4% 27%  
454 3% 23%  
455 2% 20%  
456 1.4% 18%  
457 1.1% 17%  
458 4% 16%  
459 3% 11%  
460 2% 8%  
461 3% 6%  
462 1.2% 4%  
463 0.6% 2%  
464 0.4% 2%  
465 0.2% 1.5%  
466 0.2% 1.3%  
467 0.1% 1.1%  
468 0.4% 1.0%  
469 0.2% 0.6%  
470 0.2% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.1% 99.6%  
415 0.1% 99.5%  
416 0.1% 99.5%  
417 0.5% 99.4%  
418 0.3% 98.9%  
419 0.3% 98.6%  
420 0.2% 98%  
421 0.4% 98%  
422 0.7% 98%  
423 0.4% 97%  
424 0.8% 97%  
425 1.3% 96%  
426 0.8% 94%  
427 1.4% 94%  
428 1.3% 92%  
429 2% 91%  
430 3% 89%  
431 2% 87%  
432 3% 85%  
433 2% 82%  
434 3% 80%  
435 4% 77%  
436 4% 72%  
437 3% 68%  
438 6% 66%  
439 6% 60%  
440 3% 54% Median
441 5% 51%  
442 5% 46%  
443 6% 41%  
444 6% 36%  
445 4% 30%  
446 3% 26%  
447 3% 23%  
448 4% 21%  
449 5% 16%  
450 2% 12%  
451 2% 10%  
452 1.0% 8%  
453 2% 7%  
454 0.9% 5%  
455 0.9% 4%  
456 1.3% 3%  
457 0.2% 2%  
458 0.9% 2%  
459 0.4% 1.1%  
460 0.2% 0.7%  
461 0.1% 0.5%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.2% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.5%  
382 0.2% 99.4%  
383 0.3% 99.2%  
384 0.5% 98.9%  
385 0.8% 98%  
386 0.5% 98%  
387 0.7% 97%  
388 2% 96%  
389 2% 95%  
390 0.9% 93%  
391 1.5% 92%  
392 2% 90%  
393 4% 88%  
394 2% 84%  
395 3% 82%  
396 3% 79%  
397 4% 76%  
398 4% 72%  
399 3% 68% Last Result
400 4% 65%  
401 5% 61%  
402 5% 57%  
403 5% 51% Median
404 4% 46%  
405 3% 42%  
406 3% 39%  
407 3% 36%  
408 4% 33%  
409 5% 29%  
410 3% 23%  
411 3% 21%  
412 3% 18%  
413 3% 15%  
414 2% 12%  
415 2% 10%  
416 1.1% 8%  
417 0.9% 7%  
418 2% 6%  
419 0.6% 5%  
420 0.5% 4%  
421 0.4% 4%  
422 0.5% 3%  
423 0.3% 3%  
424 0.2% 2%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.2% 2%  
428 0.2% 1.5%  
429 0.2% 1.3%  
430 0% 1.2%  
431 0% 1.1%  
432 0% 1.1%  
433 0.2% 1.0%  
434 0% 0.8%  
435 0.2% 0.8%  
436 0.1% 0.6%  
437 0.2% 0.5%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0.1% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.7%  
374 0.2% 99.5%  
375 0.3% 99.3%  
376 0.4% 99.1%  
377 0.5% 98.7%  
378 0.4% 98%  
379 0.9% 98%  
380 1.2% 97%  
381 1.1% 96%  
382 1.4% 95%  
383 2% 93%  
384 1.4% 91%  
385 3% 90%  
386 3% 87%  
387 3% 85%  
388 3% 81%  
389 3% 78%  
390 4% 76%  
391 3% 72%  
392 5% 69%  
393 4% 63%  
394 5% 59%  
395 3% 54% Median
396 4% 51%  
397 6% 47%  
398 5% 41%  
399 4% 36%  
400 3% 32%  
401 4% 29%  
402 5% 26%  
403 3% 21%  
404 3% 18%  
405 2% 15%  
406 2% 13%  
407 3% 12%  
408 1.5% 9%  
409 1.4% 8%  
410 1.1% 6%  
411 0.7% 5%  
412 0.4% 5%  
413 0.6% 4%  
414 0.7% 4%  
415 0.3% 3%  
416 0.2% 3%  
417 0.6% 2%  
418 0.3% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.2% 1.4%  
421 0.1% 1.2%  
422 0.2% 1.1%  
423 0.1% 1.0%  
424 0.1% 0.9%  
425 0% 0.8%  
426 0.1% 0.7%  
427 0.1% 0.7%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0.1% 0.5%  
430 0% 0.4%  
431 0% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0.1% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.7%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.5%  
369 0.1% 99.4%  
370 0.1% 99.4%  
371 0.3% 99.3%  
372 0.3% 99.0%  
373 0.2% 98.7%  
374 0.1% 98.5%  
375 0.4% 98%  
376 0.5% 98%  
377 0.4% 98%  
378 1.2% 97%  
379 0.5% 96%  
380 0.4% 95%  
381 1.4% 95%  
382 1.2% 94%  
383 0.9% 92%  
384 3% 92%  
385 2% 88%  
386 1.4% 87%  
387 2% 85%  
388 4% 83%  
389 2% 79%  
390 5% 77%  
391 3% 72%  
392 4% 69%  
393 5% 65%  
394 6% 61%  
395 4% 55%  
396 5% 52% Median
397 4% 46%  
398 4% 43%  
399 6% 38%  
400 5% 32%  
401 3% 27%  
402 4% 25%  
403 3% 20%  
404 3% 18%  
405 2% 15%  
406 3% 13%  
407 2% 9%  
408 1.4% 8%  
409 1.4% 6%  
410 1.2% 5%  
411 0.8% 4%  
412 0.9% 3%  
413 0.6% 2%  
414 0.2% 1.4%  
415 0.3% 1.2%  
416 0.3% 0.9%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.2% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.5%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.4% 99.2%  
332 0.3% 98.8%  
333 0.8% 98.5%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.8% 97%  
336 0.9% 96%  
337 1.4% 96%  
338 2% 94%  
339 2% 92%  
340 3% 91% Last Result
341 2% 88%  
342 3% 86%  
343 4% 84%  
344 4% 80%  
345 4% 76%  
346 2% 72%  
347 5% 70%  
348 3% 64%  
349 6% 62%  
350 5% 56%  
351 4% 51% Median
352 5% 47%  
353 3% 42%  
354 6% 39%  
355 3% 33% Majority
356 5% 30%  
357 4% 25%  
358 1.5% 21%  
359 4% 20%  
360 2% 15%  
361 2% 14%  
362 3% 11%  
363 0.8% 9%  
364 2% 8%  
365 0.8% 6%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 0.9% 5%  
368 0.3% 4%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.2% 3%  
371 0.4% 3%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0% 1.4%  
376 0.3% 1.4%  
377 0.2% 1.1%  
378 0.2% 0.9%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.6%  
381 0% 0.5%  
382 0% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0.1% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.3%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0.2% 99.0%  
295 0.4% 98.8%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.3% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.4% 97%  
302 0.3% 97%  
303 0.6% 97%  
304 0.4% 96%  
305 1.1% 96%  
306 1.4% 95%  
307 0.7% 93%  
308 1.0% 92%  
309 1.4% 91%  
310 2% 90%  
311 3% 88%  
312 3% 85%  
313 3% 83%  
314 3% 80%  
315 3% 77%  
316 4% 74%  
317 4% 70%  
318 5% 66%  
319 3% 61%  
320 4% 58%  
321 5% 55% Median
322 6% 50%  
323 4% 44%  
324 5% 40%  
325 3% 34%  
326 3% 31% Last Result
327 4% 29%  
328 5% 25%  
329 4% 19%  
330 2% 15%  
331 3% 13%  
332 2% 10%  
333 2% 9%  
334 2% 7%  
335 0.8% 5%  
336 1.1% 4%  
337 0.8% 3%  
338 0.7% 2%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.5% 1.3%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.3% 99.1%  
295 0.2% 98.8%  
296 0.6% 98.6%  
297 0.9% 98%  
298 0.8% 97%  
299 1.2% 96%  
300 1.4% 95%  
301 1.4% 94%  
302 2% 92%  
303 3% 91%  
304 2% 87%  
305 3% 85%  
306 3% 82%  
307 4% 80%  
308 3% 75%  
309 5% 73%  
310 6% 68%  
311 4% 62%  
312 4% 57%  
313 5% 54% Median
314 4% 48%  
315 6% 45%  
316 5% 39%  
317 4% 35%  
318 3% 31%  
319 5% 28%  
320 2% 23%  
321 4% 21%  
322 2% 17%  
323 1.4% 15%  
324 2% 13%  
325 3% 12%  
326 0.9% 8%  
327 1.2% 8%  
328 1.4% 6%  
329 0.4% 5%  
330 0.5% 5%  
331 1.2% 4%  
332 0.4% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.5%  
337 0.3% 1.3%  
338 0.3% 1.0%  
339 0.1% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.1% 99.4%  
259 0.1% 99.3%  
260 0.3% 99.2%  
261 0.2% 99.0%  
262 0.1% 98.8%  
263 0.2% 98.7%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 0.4% 97%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 0.7% 96%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 1.3% 95%  
278 0.9% 94%  
279 2% 93%  
280 2% 90%  
281 1.1% 88%  
282 3% 87%  
283 3% 84%  
284 3% 81%  
285 4% 78%  
286 3% 74%  
287 4% 70%  
288 6% 66%  
289 4% 60%  
290 6% 56%  
291 3% 51% Median
292 3% 47%  
293 6% 44%  
294 3% 38%  
295 4% 34%  
296 6% 30%  
297 3% 25%  
298 4% 22%  
299 4% 18%  
300 1.3% 14% Last Result
301 2% 13%  
302 3% 11%  
303 1.3% 8%  
304 1.3% 7%  
305 1.4% 5%  
306 1.0% 4%  
307 0.7% 3%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.5% 2%  
310 0.3% 1.3%  
311 0.2% 1.0%  
312 0.3% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.2% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.5%  
227 0.2% 99.4%  
228 0.3% 99.2%  
229 0.7% 98.9%  
230 0.6% 98%  
231 0.9% 98%  
232 0.9% 97%  
233 1.2% 96%  
234 2% 95%  
235 2% 93%  
236 2% 91%  
237 3% 89%  
238 3% 86%  
239 4% 83%  
240 3% 78%  
241 3% 75%  
242 5% 72%  
243 7% 67%  
244 5% 61%  
245 4% 56%  
246 5% 52% Median
247 4% 48%  
248 4% 43%  
249 4% 39%  
250 4% 35%  
251 6% 31%  
252 3% 25%  
253 3% 22%  
254 3% 18%  
255 3% 16%  
256 2% 13%  
257 3% 11%  
258 1.2% 8%  
259 1.2% 7%  
260 1.0% 6%  
261 1.4% 5%  
262 0.8% 4%  
263 0.7% 3%  
264 0.3% 2%  
265 0.5% 2%  
266 0.2% 1.4%  
267 0.2% 1.2%  
268 0.2% 0.9%  
269 0.1% 0.7%  
270 0.1% 0.6%  
271 0.1% 0.5%  
272 0.1% 0.4%  
273 0% 0.4%  
274 0.1% 0.3%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0.1% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0.1% 100%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.7%  
175 0.3% 99.7%  
176 0.3% 99.4%  
177 0.2% 99.1%  
178 0.5% 98.9%  
179 0.9% 98%  
180 1.0% 97%  
181 0.8% 96%  
182 2% 96%  
183 2% 94%  
184 2% 92%  
185 2% 90%  
186 4% 88%  
187 5% 84%  
188 3% 80%  
189 2% 76%  
190 4% 74%  
191 8% 70%  
192 6% 63%  
193 3% 56%  
194 7% 54% Median
195 5% 46%  
196 5% 41%  
197 3% 36%  
198 6% 32%  
199 4% 27%  
200 3% 23%  
201 3% 20%  
202 2% 17%  
203 3% 15%  
204 2% 12%  
205 2% 10%  
206 2% 8%  
207 1.4% 6%  
208 0.8% 5%  
209 1.0% 4%  
210 0.7% 3%  
211 0.7% 2%  
212 0.5% 2%  
213 0.2% 1.2%  
214 0.3% 1.0%  
215 0.1% 0.7%  
216 0.2% 0.5%  
217 0% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0% 0.3%  
220 0.1% 0.2%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.7%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.6%  
130 0.1% 99.6%  
131 0.2% 99.5%  
132 0.1% 99.3%  
133 0.1% 99.2%  
134 0.2% 99.1%  
135 0.2% 98.9%  
136 0.1% 98.7%  
137 0.1% 98.7%  
138 0.3% 98.5%  
139 0% 98%  
140 0.1% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0% 98%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0.1% 98%  
146 0% 98%  
147 0% 98%  
148 0.1% 98%  
149 0% 98%  
150 0.1% 98%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0.1% 98%  
153 0.1% 97%  
154 0.2% 97%  
155 0.3% 97%  
156 0.3% 97%  
157 0.7% 97%  
158 0.7% 96%  
159 0.9% 95%  
160 1.3% 94%  
161 2% 93%  
162 2% 91%  
163 3% 89%  
164 3% 87%  
165 3% 83%  
166 4% 80%  
167 4% 77%  
168 5% 73%  
169 6% 67%  
170 5% 61%  
171 5% 56%  
172 6% 51% Median
173 6% 45%  
174 5% 39%  
175 5% 35%  
176 5% 30%  
177 4% 25%  
178 4% 22%  
179 3% 18%  
180 3% 15%  
181 3% 12%  
182 2% 9%  
183 1.4% 7%  
184 2% 6%  
185 1.1% 4%  
186 0.8% 3%  
187 0.6% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.5%  
189 0.3% 1.0%  
190 0.2% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations