Opinion Poll by Forsa, 6–9 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.0% 28.7–31.4% 28.4–31.8% 28.1–32.1% 27.5–32.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 233 220–247 218–254 217–257 211–260
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 133 122–145 120–146 120–148 116–150
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 125 116–134 114–138 111–140 108–145
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 72–86 69–88 68–90 65–94
Die Linke 69 62 57–68 55–70 54–71 52–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 55 49–61 47–62 46–64 44–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 39 0–43 0–45 0–46 0–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0.1% 99.7%  
210 0.1% 99.6%  
211 0.1% 99.5%  
212 0.1% 99.4%  
213 0.2% 99.3%  
214 0.1% 99.1%  
215 0.4% 98.9%  
216 0.8% 98.6%  
217 2% 98%  
218 3% 96%  
219 2% 93%  
220 5% 91%  
221 2% 87%  
222 2% 84%  
223 2% 82%  
224 2% 80%  
225 1.2% 78%  
226 1.1% 76%  
227 2% 75%  
228 2% 73%  
229 5% 71%  
230 4% 66%  
231 4% 62%  
232 6% 58%  
233 3% 52% Median
234 4% 50%  
235 5% 46%  
236 3% 41%  
237 3% 38%  
238 3% 36%  
239 5% 33%  
240 4% 28%  
241 3% 24%  
242 3% 21%  
243 3% 18%  
244 2% 16%  
245 1.4% 14%  
246 1.2% 12%  
247 2% 11%  
248 0.7% 10%  
249 0.6% 9%  
250 0.8% 8%  
251 0.7% 8%  
252 0.8% 7%  
253 0.4% 6%  
254 2% 6%  
255 0.8% 4%  
256 0.5% 3%  
257 0.9% 3%  
258 0.9% 2%  
259 0.5% 1.0%  
260 0.2% 0.5%  
261 0.1% 0.3%  
262 0.1% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0% 99.7%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0.1% 99.6%  
116 0.1% 99.5%  
117 0.2% 99.4%  
118 0.6% 99.1%  
119 0.8% 98.6%  
120 3% 98%  
121 3% 95%  
122 4% 92%  
123 7% 88%  
124 5% 80%  
125 0.7% 75%  
126 0.9% 74%  
127 1.2% 74%  
128 2% 72%  
129 3% 71%  
130 2% 68%  
131 5% 66%  
132 9% 60%  
133 9% 52% Median
134 8% 42%  
135 7% 34%  
136 7% 27%  
137 3% 21%  
138 0.9% 18%  
139 0.7% 17%  
140 0.6% 17%  
141 1.3% 16%  
142 0.7% 15%  
143 0.9% 14%  
144 2% 13%  
145 3% 11%  
146 3% 8%  
147 2% 5%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 0.6% 1.4%  
150 0.2% 0.7%  
151 0.1% 0.5%  
152 0% 0.4%  
153 0% 0.4% Last Result
154 0% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.6% 99.5%  
109 0.3% 98.9%  
110 0.7% 98.6%  
111 0.8% 98%  
112 1.1% 97%  
113 0.9% 96%  
114 2% 95%  
115 3% 93%  
116 2% 90%  
117 3% 88%  
118 4% 85%  
119 5% 81%  
120 5% 76%  
121 5% 71%  
122 5% 66%  
123 4% 61%  
124 5% 57%  
125 4% 52% Median
126 4% 47%  
127 7% 44%  
128 5% 37%  
129 6% 32%  
130 3% 26%  
131 3% 23%  
132 5% 20%  
133 3% 14%  
134 2% 11%  
135 1.2% 9%  
136 2% 8%  
137 1.2% 6%  
138 0.8% 5%  
139 1.1% 4%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 0.8% 2%  
142 0.3% 2%  
143 0.5% 1.3%  
144 0.2% 0.8%  
145 0.3% 0.6%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 99.3%  
67 0.9% 98.7%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 2% 94%  
71 2% 92%  
72 5% 91%  
73 5% 86%  
74 7% 81%  
75 7% 75%  
76 6% 68%  
77 6% 61%  
78 6% 55% Median
79 6% 49%  
80 6% 43%  
81 8% 37%  
82 7% 29%  
83 4% 21%  
84 3% 17%  
85 3% 14%  
86 3% 11%  
87 2% 8%  
88 1.4% 6%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 0.3% 2%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.5% 99.6%  
53 0.8% 99.1%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 94%  
57 4% 91%  
58 6% 86%  
59 8% 80%  
60 10% 73%  
61 9% 63%  
62 10% 54% Median
63 9% 44%  
64 7% 35%  
65 7% 28%  
66 7% 21%  
67 3% 15%  
68 4% 12%  
69 3% 8% Last Result
70 1.5% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 0.9% 99.2%  
46 1.3% 98% Last Result
47 2% 97%  
48 3% 95%  
49 3% 91%  
50 6% 88%  
51 6% 82%  
52 8% 76%  
53 10% 68%  
54 8% 58%  
55 8% 50% Median
56 9% 43%  
57 7% 34%  
58 7% 26%  
59 4% 19%  
60 3% 16%  
61 4% 13%  
62 4% 9%  
63 1.3% 5%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.2%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 0% 55%  
8 0% 55%  
9 0% 55%  
10 0% 55%  
11 0% 55%  
12 0% 55%  
13 0% 55%  
14 0% 55%  
15 0% 55%  
16 0% 55%  
17 0% 55%  
18 0% 55%  
19 0% 55%  
20 0% 55%  
21 0% 55%  
22 0% 55%  
23 0% 55%  
24 0% 55%  
25 0% 55%  
26 0% 55%  
27 0% 55%  
28 0% 55%  
29 0% 55%  
30 0% 55%  
31 0% 55%  
32 0% 55%  
33 0% 55%  
34 0% 55%  
35 0% 55%  
36 0% 55%  
37 0% 55%  
38 3% 55%  
39 13% 52% Median
40 10% 39%  
41 8% 30%  
42 6% 22%  
43 6% 15%  
44 3% 10%  
45 3% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.4% 1.0%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 539 100% 525–570 522–574 520–576 516–580
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 445 100% 428–457 426–462 423–465 419–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 436 100% 421–451 417–453 414–456 408–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 420 100% 403–443 401–447 398–449 391–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 412 100% 394–433 391–437 389–441 384–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 390 99.9% 373–404 369–408 366–411 359–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 365 80% 349–386 346–389 343–392 338–398
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 319 0.1% 305–336 301–340 298–343 293–350
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 292–329 288–332 284–334 279–340
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 283 0% 260–298 256–302 253–304 248–309
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 257 0% 243–272 240–276 236–280 232–285
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 195 0% 182–207 180–210 178–213 174–218
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 132–176 131–177 128–179 121–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.9%  
513 0.1% 99.8%  
514 0.1% 99.8%  
515 0.1% 99.7%  
516 0.1% 99.5%  
517 0.4% 99.4%  
518 0.4% 99.0%  
519 0.8% 98.6%  
520 0.4% 98%  
521 0.7% 97%  
522 2% 97%  
523 2% 95%  
524 2% 93%  
525 2% 91%  
526 2% 88%  
527 5% 86%  
528 4% 81%  
529 1.0% 77%  
530 3% 76%  
531 3% 72%  
532 6% 69%  
533 2% 63%  
534 3% 62%  
535 2% 59%  
536 3% 57%  
537 1.0% 54%  
538 1.5% 53%  
539 2% 52%  
540 0.5% 50%  
541 1.1% 49%  
542 0.8% 48%  
543 1.0% 47%  
544 0.3% 46%  
545 0.3% 46%  
546 0.2% 46% Median
547 0.4% 46%  
548 0.3% 45%  
549 0.3% 45%  
550 0.5% 44%  
551 0.3% 44%  
552 0.6% 44%  
553 0.8% 43%  
554 0.6% 42%  
555 1.4% 42%  
556 1.4% 40%  
557 2% 39%  
558 1.0% 37%  
559 3% 36%  
560 2% 33%  
561 4% 31%  
562 2% 28%  
563 3% 26%  
564 2% 23%  
565 2% 21%  
566 2% 19%  
567 2% 18%  
568 2% 15%  
569 2% 13%  
570 2% 11%  
571 1.5% 9%  
572 2% 8%  
573 0.6% 6%  
574 2% 5%  
575 0.7% 3%  
576 0.9% 3%  
577 0.3% 2%  
578 0.6% 1.5%  
579 0.3% 0.9%  
580 0.2% 0.5%  
581 0.1% 0.3%  
582 0.1% 0.2%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.2% 99.5%  
420 0.5% 99.3%  
421 0.6% 98.9%  
422 0.7% 98%  
423 1.1% 98%  
424 0.9% 96%  
425 0.5% 96%  
426 2% 95%  
427 2% 93%  
428 3% 91%  
429 3% 88%  
430 2% 85%  
431 2% 83%  
432 2% 81%  
433 0.9% 79%  
434 2% 78%  
435 3% 77%  
436 2% 74%  
437 1.2% 72%  
438 2% 71%  
439 1.4% 69%  
440 2% 68%  
441 3% 66%  
442 3% 63%  
443 3% 60%  
444 6% 57%  
445 5% 51%  
446 3% 46%  
447 6% 43%  
448 3% 37%  
449 4% 34%  
450 5% 30%  
451 2% 24%  
452 3% 22%  
453 4% 19%  
454 2% 15%  
455 1.4% 13%  
456 0.7% 11%  
457 1.3% 10%  
458 0.7% 9%  
459 1.3% 9%  
460 1.4% 7% Median
461 0.7% 6%  
462 0.6% 5%  
463 1.0% 5%  
464 0.5% 4%  
465 0.8% 3%  
466 0.7% 2%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.0%  
469 0.3% 0.7%  
470 0.2% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0.1% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.7%  
408 0.1% 99.6%  
409 0.3% 99.5%  
410 0.2% 99.2%  
411 0.7% 98.9%  
412 0.2% 98%  
413 0.5% 98%  
414 0.7% 98%  
415 0.5% 97%  
416 1.0% 96%  
417 0.7% 95%  
418 0.8% 95%  
419 2% 94%  
420 2% 92%  
421 2% 91%  
422 1.2% 89%  
423 2% 88%  
424 2% 85%  
425 2% 84%  
426 3% 82%  
427 2% 79%  
428 5% 76%  
429 2% 71%  
430 2% 69%  
431 3% 68%  
432 2% 64%  
433 4% 62%  
434 2% 59%  
435 3% 57%  
436 4% 53%  
437 3% 50%  
438 2% 46%  
439 3% 44%  
440 2% 41%  
441 4% 40%  
442 2% 36%  
443 4% 33%  
444 4% 29%  
445 2% 26%  
446 2% 23%  
447 5% 21%  
448 2% 17%  
449 2% 15%  
450 1.2% 13%  
451 2% 11%  
452 3% 9% Median
453 1.2% 6%  
454 1.3% 5%  
455 0.3% 4%  
456 1.3% 3%  
457 0.3% 2%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.3% 1.2%  
460 0.3% 0.9%  
461 0.1% 0.6%  
462 0.2% 0.5%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.8%  
388 0% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.1% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.5%  
392 0.1% 99.5%  
393 0.2% 99.4%  
394 0.1% 99.1%  
395 0.2% 99.1%  
396 0.2% 98.8%  
397 0.3% 98.6%  
398 0.8% 98%  
399 1.5% 97% Last Result
400 1.0% 96%  
401 2% 95%  
402 2% 93%  
403 2% 91%  
404 2% 89%  
405 8% 87%  
406 4% 79%  
407 2% 75%  
408 3% 73%  
409 2% 69%  
410 4% 67%  
411 3% 63%  
412 2% 61%  
413 3% 59%  
414 0.6% 56%  
415 0.6% 55%  
416 1.1% 55%  
417 0.7% 54%  
418 1.0% 53%  
419 1.0% 52%  
420 2% 51%  
421 1.3% 49% Median
422 1.2% 48%  
423 1.5% 47%  
424 2% 45%  
425 1.4% 43%  
426 2% 42%  
427 2% 40%  
428 4% 37%  
429 3% 34%  
430 2% 30%  
431 2% 28%  
432 2% 26%  
433 0.8% 25%  
434 2% 24%  
435 2% 22%  
436 2% 20%  
437 0.8% 18%  
438 0.8% 17%  
439 0.9% 17%  
440 1.5% 16%  
441 1.0% 14%  
442 1.4% 13%  
443 2% 12%  
444 2% 10%  
445 1.4% 8%  
446 0.9% 7%  
447 2% 6%  
448 1.4% 4%  
449 0.8% 3%  
450 0.6% 2%  
451 0.4% 1.4%  
452 0% 0.9%  
453 0.3% 0.9%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.2% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.2% 99.6%  
385 0.3% 99.4%  
386 0.3% 99.1%  
387 0.7% 98.8%  
388 0.4% 98%  
389 1.4% 98%  
390 0.7% 96%  
391 0.7% 96%  
392 1.4% 95%  
393 1.3% 93%  
394 3% 92%  
395 3% 90%  
396 1.4% 87%  
397 2% 85%  
398 1.3% 83%  
399 2% 82%  
400 2% 80%  
401 1.3% 78%  
402 3% 77%  
403 3% 74%  
404 3% 70%  
405 3% 67%  
406 2% 64%  
407 3% 62%  
408 3% 60%  
409 3% 57%  
410 2% 54%  
411 2% 52%  
412 2% 51%  
413 2% 48% Median
414 1.5% 46%  
415 0.7% 45%  
416 2% 44%  
417 1.0% 42%  
418 1.3% 41%  
419 2% 40%  
420 2% 38%  
421 2% 36%  
422 1.3% 34%  
423 2% 33%  
424 2% 31%  
425 2% 29%  
426 3% 27%  
427 2% 25%  
428 5% 23%  
429 0.7% 18%  
430 1.2% 17%  
431 2% 16%  
432 0.9% 14%  
433 3% 13%  
434 1.3% 10%  
435 1.2% 9%  
436 2% 7%  
437 0.8% 6%  
438 1.1% 5%  
439 0.5% 4%  
440 0.4% 3%  
441 0.6% 3%  
442 0.4% 2%  
443 0.4% 2%  
444 0.4% 1.1%  
445 0.2% 0.8%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.2%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.2% 99.8%  
359 0.2% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.4%  
361 0.1% 99.3%  
362 0.3% 99.2%  
363 0.5% 98.9%  
364 0.2% 98%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 0.6% 98%  
367 0.5% 97%  
368 0.7% 96%  
369 1.3% 96%  
370 2% 94%  
371 1.1% 93%  
372 1.1% 92%  
373 0.9% 91%  
374 2% 90%  
375 2% 88%  
376 2% 85%  
377 3% 83%  
378 4% 81%  
379 1.4% 77%  
380 2% 75%  
381 3% 74%  
382 2% 71%  
383 2% 69%  
384 2% 67%  
385 3% 65%  
386 2% 62%  
387 2% 60%  
388 2% 58%  
389 4% 56%  
390 3% 52%  
391 3% 49%  
392 2% 47%  
393 2% 45%  
394 2% 42%  
395 3% 40%  
396 3% 37%  
397 3% 34%  
398 2% 31%  
399 4% 29%  
400 3% 25%  
401 3% 22%  
402 3% 19%  
403 3% 16%  
404 4% 14%  
405 1.2% 10% Median
406 1.2% 9%  
407 2% 7%  
408 1.3% 6%  
409 0.3% 4%  
410 1.1% 4%  
411 0.6% 3%  
412 0.9% 2%  
413 0.4% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.1%  
415 0.1% 0.8%  
416 0.2% 0.6%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0.3% 99.6%  
339 0.1% 99.3%  
340 0.1% 99.2% Last Result
341 0.5% 99.1%  
342 0.4% 98.6%  
343 0.8% 98%  
344 0.5% 97%  
345 1.3% 97%  
346 1.4% 96%  
347 1.2% 94%  
348 0.8% 93%  
349 2% 92%  
350 2% 90%  
351 1.0% 87%  
352 2% 86%  
353 4% 85%  
354 0.9% 81%  
355 3% 80% Majority
356 1.5% 77%  
357 4% 75%  
358 3% 71%  
359 3% 69%  
360 2% 65%  
361 3% 63%  
362 2% 60%  
363 3% 58%  
364 3% 55%  
365 4% 53%  
366 1.3% 49% Median
367 2% 48%  
368 2% 46%  
369 2% 44%  
370 2% 42%  
371 2% 40%  
372 1.5% 38%  
373 1.1% 37%  
374 2% 36%  
375 2% 33%  
376 2% 31%  
377 3% 29%  
378 4% 26%  
379 1.2% 22%  
380 2% 21%  
381 3% 20%  
382 1.3% 17%  
383 2% 16%  
384 2% 14%  
385 1.2% 12%  
386 2% 11%  
387 1.3% 9%  
388 1.1% 7%  
389 1.4% 6%  
390 1.0% 5%  
391 0.7% 4%  
392 0.5% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.4% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.6% 1.4%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0.1% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 0.3% 99.2%  
296 0.4% 98.9%  
297 0.9% 98%  
298 0.6% 98%  
299 1.1% 97%  
300 0.3% 96%  
301 1.3% 96%  
302 2% 94%  
303 1.2% 93%  
304 1.2% 91%  
305 4% 90%  
306 3% 86%  
307 3% 84%  
308 3% 81%  
309 3% 78%  
310 4% 75%  
311 2% 71%  
312 3% 69%  
313 3% 66%  
314 3% 63%  
315 2% 60%  
316 2% 58%  
317 2% 55%  
318 3% 53%  
319 3% 51%  
320 4% 48% Median
321 2% 44%  
322 2% 42%  
323 2% 40%  
324 3% 38%  
325 2% 35%  
326 2% 33%  
327 2% 31%  
328 3% 29%  
329 2% 26%  
330 1.4% 25%  
331 4% 23%  
332 3% 19%  
333 2% 17%  
334 2% 15%  
335 2% 12%  
336 0.9% 10%  
337 1.1% 9%  
338 1.1% 8%  
339 2% 7%  
340 1.3% 6%  
341 0.7% 4%  
342 0.5% 4%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.7% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.7%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0.2% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.6%  
279 0.3% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.2%  
282 0.5% 99.0%  
283 0.4% 98%  
284 0.6% 98%  
285 0.5% 97%  
286 0.6% 97%  
287 1.2% 96%  
288 0.9% 95%  
289 0.7% 94%  
290 1.5% 94%  
291 1.0% 92%  
292 2% 91%  
293 3% 89%  
294 1.1% 87%  
295 1.1% 86%  
296 4% 84%  
297 2% 80%  
298 2% 78%  
299 2% 76%  
300 3% 74%  
301 1.4% 71%  
302 2% 70%  
303 3% 68%  
304 2% 65%  
305 1.1% 64%  
306 1.1% 62%  
307 1.4% 61%  
308 2% 60%  
309 2% 58%  
310 2% 56%  
311 2% 54%  
312 1.1% 51%  
313 1.2% 50%  
314 2% 49%  
315 4% 47%  
316 2% 43%  
317 2% 42%  
318 3% 40%  
319 2% 37%  
320 2% 35%  
321 2% 33%  
322 4% 30%  
323 3% 26%  
324 3% 23%  
325 1.3% 20%  
326 2% 18% Last Result
327 4% 16% Median
328 2% 13%  
329 3% 11%  
330 2% 8%  
331 1.0% 6%  
332 0.9% 5%  
333 1.0% 4%  
334 0.9% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.2%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.3%  
250 0.2% 99.1%  
251 0.6% 98.9%  
252 0.6% 98%  
253 1.0% 98%  
254 0.7% 97%  
255 0.6% 96%  
256 0.5% 95%  
257 1.1% 95%  
258 1.3% 94%  
259 2% 92%  
260 3% 90%  
261 1.2% 87%  
262 1.0% 86%  
263 2% 85%  
264 1.1% 83%  
265 4% 82%  
266 2% 78%  
267 2% 76%  
268 2% 74%  
269 1.3% 72%  
270 0.9% 71%  
271 2% 70%  
272 4% 68%  
273 2% 64%  
274 1.1% 62%  
275 1.2% 61%  
276 1.1% 60%  
277 2% 59%  
278 2% 57%  
279 0.8% 55%  
280 2% 54%  
281 0.6% 52%  
282 1.1% 51%  
283 5% 50%  
284 2% 45%  
285 1.5% 43%  
286 1.3% 42%  
287 2% 40%  
288 2% 38%  
289 4% 37%  
290 5% 33%  
291 2% 28%  
292 2% 26%  
293 1.2% 24%  
294 3% 23%  
295 4% 20%  
296 3% 16%  
297 2% 13% Median
298 0.7% 11%  
299 0.8% 10%  
300 0.6% 9% Last Result
301 3% 9%  
302 1.4% 6%  
303 2% 4%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.8% 2%  
308 0.6% 1.3%  
309 0.2% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.2% 99.8%  
232 0.2% 99.6%  
233 0.2% 99.4%  
234 0.4% 99.2%  
235 0.7% 98.9%  
236 0.8% 98%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 0.6% 97%  
239 1.3% 96%  
240 1.1% 95%  
241 0.8% 94%  
242 0.8% 93%  
243 4% 92%  
244 2% 88%  
245 2% 86%  
246 4% 84%  
247 3% 81%  
248 2% 78%  
249 2% 76%  
250 3% 74%  
251 5% 71%  
252 2% 66%  
253 3% 64%  
254 6% 62%  
255 3% 56%  
256 2% 53%  
257 3% 50%  
258 3% 47% Median
259 3% 45%  
260 4% 41%  
261 2% 37%  
262 3% 36%  
263 2% 33%  
264 1.3% 30%  
265 5% 29%  
266 3% 24%  
267 2% 22%  
268 2% 20%  
269 2% 18%  
270 0.9% 16%  
271 2% 15%  
272 4% 13%  
273 2% 10%  
274 1.0% 8%  
275 0.8% 7%  
276 0.9% 6%  
277 1.2% 5%  
278 0.7% 4%  
279 0.4% 3%  
280 1.0% 3%  
281 0.3% 2%  
282 0.2% 1.3%  
283 0.1% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 0.9%  
285 0.2% 0.7%  
286 0.2% 0.4%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.2% 99.6%  
175 0.3% 99.4%  
176 0.6% 99.1%  
177 0.4% 98%  
178 0.8% 98%  
179 1.5% 97%  
180 2% 96%  
181 2% 94%  
182 3% 92%  
183 3% 89%  
184 3% 86%  
185 3% 84%  
186 2% 80%  
187 3% 78%  
188 3% 75%  
189 4% 72%  
190 2% 68%  
191 3% 65%  
192 4% 62%  
193 4% 58%  
194 3% 54%  
195 6% 50% Median
196 4% 45%  
197 5% 41%  
198 4% 36%  
199 5% 33%  
200 4% 28%  
201 2% 25%  
202 4% 22%  
203 3% 19%  
204 2% 16%  
205 2% 14%  
206 2% 13%  
207 1.2% 11%  
208 2% 9%  
209 2% 7%  
210 1.0% 6%  
211 1.1% 5%  
212 0.3% 4%  
213 0.9% 3%  
214 0.8% 2%  
215 0.2% 2%  
216 0.3% 1.3%  
217 0.4% 1.0%  
218 0.2% 0.6%  
219 0.2% 0.5%  
220 0.1% 0.3%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.8%  
121 0.4% 99.5%  
122 0.3% 99.1%  
123 0.3% 98.9%  
124 0.2% 98.6%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 0.2% 98%  
128 0.7% 98%  
129 0.3% 97%  
130 0.6% 97%  
131 3% 96%  
132 4% 93%  
133 6% 89%  
134 4% 83%  
135 3% 78%  
136 2% 75%  
137 1.4% 73%  
138 0.8% 71%  
139 0.6% 71%  
140 0.4% 70%  
141 1.2% 70%  
142 0.5% 68%  
143 0.8% 68%  
144 2% 67%  
145 3% 65%  
146 3% 62%  
147 2% 59%  
148 1.0% 57%  
149 0.6% 56%  
150 0.3% 56%  
151 0.1% 55%  
152 0.1% 55%  
153 0.2% 55%  
154 0.1% 55%  
155 0.1% 55%  
156 0.1% 55%  
157 0.1% 55%  
158 0.1% 55%  
159 0.3% 54%  
160 1.0% 54%  
161 3% 53%  
162 5% 50%  
163 4% 45%  
164 4% 41%  
165 4% 36%  
166 2% 33%  
167 0.7% 31%  
168 0.4% 30%  
169 0.2% 29%  
170 0.2% 29%  
171 0.9% 29%  
172 2% 28% Median
173 5% 26%  
174 5% 21%  
175 6% 17%  
176 4% 11%  
177 3% 7%  
178 1.2% 4%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.1% 2%  
181 0.1% 2%  
182 0% 2%  
183 0.1% 2%  
184 0.1% 1.5%  
185 0.2% 1.3%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.4% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations