Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 9–14 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.5% 28.2–30.8% 27.9–31.2% 27.6–31.5% 27.0–32.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.6% 9.2–11.9% 8.9–12.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 213–232 211–233 209–234 200–239
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 113–129 110–131 109–133 106–137
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 119 111–128 110–130 109–132 105–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 79 71–86 70–87 70–88 68–90
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 59 54–65 53–68 52–71 50–73
Die Linke 69 56 52–64 49–65 48–65 47–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–58 47–60 45–62 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.2% 99.9%  
200 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
201 0.4% 99.3%  
202 0.3% 98.9%  
203 0.1% 98.6%  
204 0% 98.6%  
205 0.1% 98.5%  
206 0.3% 98%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 0.1% 98%  
209 0.2% 98%  
210 1.4% 97%  
211 4% 96%  
212 2% 92%  
213 0.4% 90%  
214 0.1% 90%  
215 5% 90%  
216 15% 85%  
217 16% 70%  
218 10% 54% Median
219 2% 44%  
220 0.4% 42%  
221 7% 41%  
222 10% 34%  
223 4% 24%  
224 2% 20%  
225 2% 18%  
226 0.6% 17%  
227 1.5% 16%  
228 0.5% 15%  
229 0.1% 14%  
230 0.1% 14%  
231 0.8% 14%  
232 3% 13%  
233 5% 10%  
234 2% 4%  
235 0.5% 2%  
236 0.1% 2%  
237 0.2% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.7% 1.2%  
240 0.3% 0.5%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.7% 99.6%  
107 0.5% 98.8%  
108 0.5% 98%  
109 0.7% 98%  
110 3% 97%  
111 2% 94%  
112 2% 92%  
113 1.2% 90%  
114 6% 89%  
115 1.1% 83%  
116 6% 82%  
117 2% 76%  
118 7% 74%  
119 6% 67%  
120 6% 61%  
121 5% 55%  
122 5% 51% Median
123 7% 46%  
124 6% 38%  
125 8% 32%  
126 5% 24%  
127 3% 19%  
128 4% 16%  
129 4% 12%  
130 2% 8%  
131 1.1% 5%  
132 1.0% 4%  
133 2% 3%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.1% 0.9%  
136 0.2% 0.8%  
137 0.3% 0.6%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.2% 99.4%  
107 0.7% 99.2%  
108 0.8% 98.5%  
109 2% 98%  
110 2% 96%  
111 4% 94%  
112 4% 89%  
113 4% 85%  
114 8% 81%  
115 4% 74%  
116 4% 70%  
117 6% 66%  
118 5% 60%  
119 6% 55% Median
120 5% 49%  
121 7% 43%  
122 6% 36%  
123 5% 30%  
124 6% 25%  
125 3% 19%  
126 3% 17%  
127 3% 14%  
128 3% 11%  
129 2% 8%  
130 1.5% 6%  
131 0.7% 4%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.8% 1.4%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.2% 0.3%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 99.6%  
69 1.1% 98.7%  
70 3% 98%  
71 5% 94%  
72 4% 89%  
73 10% 85%  
74 5% 75%  
75 4% 70%  
76 6% 65%  
77 2% 59%  
78 3% 57%  
79 4% 54% Median
80 2% 50%  
81 9% 48%  
82 3% 38%  
83 14% 35%  
84 3% 22%  
85 7% 19%  
86 3% 12%  
87 4% 9%  
88 3% 5%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 0.9% 99.2%  
52 1.0% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 6% 95%  
55 13% 89%  
56 7% 76%  
57 5% 69%  
58 10% 65%  
59 14% 54% Median
60 12% 41%  
61 7% 29%  
62 2% 22%  
63 7% 20%  
64 2% 12%  
65 2% 10%  
66 1.4% 9%  
67 2% 7%  
68 1.4% 5%  
69 0.9% 4%  
70 0.3% 3%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 3% 97%  
50 2% 94%  
51 1.2% 91%  
52 1.4% 90%  
53 2% 89%  
54 6% 87%  
55 21% 81%  
56 21% 59% Median
57 5% 39%  
58 8% 34%  
59 5% 25%  
60 2% 21%  
61 1.2% 19%  
62 4% 18%  
63 2% 14%  
64 4% 11%  
65 5% 8%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.2% Last Result
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.7%  
43 0.1% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.4%  
45 1.3% 98.6%  
46 2% 97%  
47 2% 96%  
48 5% 93%  
49 1.2% 88%  
50 4% 87%  
51 7% 83%  
52 14% 76%  
53 12% 62% Median
54 8% 50%  
55 6% 41%  
56 6% 36%  
57 12% 29%  
58 8% 17%  
59 3% 9%  
60 1.3% 6%  
61 1.3% 4%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.9% 1.4%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 511–528 508–531 506–534 502–539
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 451 100% 444–464 441–467 440–469 433–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 455 100% 445–463 440–466 439–469 434–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 411 100% 402–422 398–424 397–427 393–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 397 100% 390–409 388–413 386–416 381–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 401 100% 390–409 387–413 385–415 381–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 357 67% 347–366 344–373 343–376 341–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 333 0.4% 324–347 323–348 320–349 311–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 298 0% 287–307 285–311 282–312 276–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 294 0% 283–305 281–308 279–309 274–312
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 240 0% 230–251 228–253 226–254 221–259
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 168–186 166–189 163–191 159–195
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 176 0% 166–183 163–185 160–187 155–190

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0.2% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.7%  
502 0.3% 99.6%  
503 0.6% 99.3%  
504 0.2% 98.8%  
505 0.2% 98.6%  
506 2% 98%  
507 0.8% 97%  
508 2% 96%  
509 2% 94%  
510 0.7% 92%  
511 3% 91%  
512 4% 89%  
513 2% 85%  
514 4% 83%  
515 5% 79%  
516 3% 74%  
517 7% 71%  
518 9% 65% Median
519 4% 56%  
520 10% 52%  
521 5% 42%  
522 3% 37%  
523 6% 34%  
524 8% 27%  
525 3% 20%  
526 2% 17%  
527 5% 15%  
528 0.8% 11%  
529 2% 10%  
530 1.4% 7%  
531 1.2% 6%  
532 0.6% 5%  
533 1.4% 4%  
534 0.6% 3%  
535 0.6% 2%  
536 0.5% 2%  
537 0.3% 1.0%  
538 0.2% 0.8%  
539 0.2% 0.5%  
540 0.2% 0.4%  
541 0.1% 0.2%  
542 0.1% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.7%  
433 0.2% 99.7%  
434 0.1% 99.5%  
435 0.4% 99.3%  
436 0.1% 99.0%  
437 0.2% 98.8%  
438 0.8% 98.7%  
439 0.3% 98%  
440 1.3% 98%  
441 1.5% 96%  
442 1.4% 95%  
443 3% 93%  
444 4% 91%  
445 6% 86%  
446 11% 80%  
447 6% 69%  
448 2% 63%  
449 5% 61% Median
450 4% 55%  
451 5% 52%  
452 2% 46%  
453 3% 45%  
454 5% 42%  
455 2% 37%  
456 4% 35%  
457 3% 31%  
458 6% 27%  
459 2% 21%  
460 3% 19%  
461 1.1% 16%  
462 1.2% 15%  
463 3% 14%  
464 1.4% 11%  
465 3% 10%  
466 1.0% 6%  
467 2% 5%  
468 0.6% 3%  
469 1.1% 3%  
470 0.2% 2%  
471 0.4% 1.4%  
472 0.4% 1.0%  
473 0.1% 0.5%  
474 0.3% 0.4%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0.1% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
429 0% 100%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.2% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.6%  
435 0.2% 99.5%  
436 0.3% 99.3%  
437 0.8% 99.0%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.3% 98%  
440 3% 97%  
441 0.3% 95%  
442 0.7% 95%  
443 2% 94%  
444 1.4% 92%  
445 5% 90%  
446 0.8% 86%  
447 2% 85%  
448 4% 83%  
449 7% 79%  
450 5% 73%  
451 4% 67%  
452 5% 63% Median
453 2% 57%  
454 4% 56%  
455 8% 52%  
456 7% 44%  
457 7% 37%  
458 3% 30%  
459 4% 27%  
460 3% 23%  
461 6% 21%  
462 3% 15%  
463 2% 11%  
464 2% 9%  
465 1.1% 8%  
466 3% 7%  
467 0.8% 4%  
468 0.6% 3%  
469 0.4% 3%  
470 0.3% 2%  
471 0.9% 2%  
472 0.2% 0.9%  
473 0.2% 0.7%  
474 0.2% 0.6%  
475 0.1% 0.4%  
476 0.1% 0.3%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1% Last Result
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.2% 99.7%  
393 0.3% 99.5%  
394 0.4% 99.2%  
395 1.0% 98.8%  
396 0.2% 98%  
397 2% 98%  
398 1.2% 96%  
399 2% 94%  
400 2% 93%  
401 0.4% 91%  
402 2% 90%  
403 3% 89%  
404 3% 86%  
405 3% 82%  
406 1.3% 79%  
407 6% 77%  
408 10% 72%  
409 5% 62% Median
410 7% 57%  
411 5% 50%  
412 0.9% 46%  
413 3% 45%  
414 4% 42%  
415 6% 38%  
416 3% 31%  
417 3% 29%  
418 3% 26%  
419 2% 23%  
420 4% 21% Last Result
421 5% 17%  
422 3% 12%  
423 2% 8%  
424 2% 7%  
425 0.9% 5%  
426 1.3% 4%  
427 0.9% 3%  
428 0.4% 2%  
429 0.2% 1.4%  
430 0.2% 1.2%  
431 0.2% 1.0%  
432 0.2% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.6%  
434 0.2% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.2% 99.6%  
382 0.2% 99.5%  
383 0.2% 99.2%  
384 0.5% 99.0%  
385 0.5% 98.6%  
386 0.8% 98%  
387 0.5% 97%  
388 2% 97%  
389 3% 95%  
390 3% 91%  
391 2% 88%  
392 9% 86%  
393 6% 77%  
394 8% 71%  
395 7% 63%  
396 5% 56% Median
397 3% 52%  
398 7% 49%  
399 3% 42%  
400 5% 39%  
401 6% 33%  
402 2% 28%  
403 1.5% 26%  
404 3% 25%  
405 0.6% 22%  
406 4% 21%  
407 1.4% 17%  
408 4% 16%  
409 3% 12%  
410 2% 9%  
411 2% 8%  
412 0.8% 6%  
413 1.0% 5%  
414 1.0% 4%  
415 0.5% 3%  
416 0.6% 3%  
417 0.2% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.5% 2%  
420 0.2% 1.2%  
421 0.4% 1.1%  
422 0.1% 0.7%  
423 0.1% 0.5%  
424 0.1% 0.4%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0.1% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.3% 99.6%  
382 0.6% 99.3%  
383 0.2% 98.7%  
384 0.3% 98%  
385 1.3% 98%  
386 2% 97%  
387 0.9% 95%  
388 1.0% 94%  
389 0.6% 93%  
390 3% 93%  
391 4% 90%  
392 3% 86%  
393 2% 83%  
394 3% 81%  
395 3% 78%  
396 3% 74%  
397 5% 72%  
398 8% 66%  
399 4% 59% Last Result, Median
400 4% 55%  
401 6% 51%  
402 5% 45%  
403 5% 40%  
404 8% 35%  
405 4% 27%  
406 4% 23%  
407 3% 19%  
408 1.4% 16%  
409 6% 15%  
410 1.2% 9%  
411 1.2% 8%  
412 2% 7%  
413 0.5% 5%  
414 0.5% 5%  
415 2% 4%  
416 0.3% 2%  
417 0.8% 2%  
418 0.2% 1.4%  
419 0.3% 1.2%  
420 0.5% 0.9%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
341 0.4% 99.7%  
342 0.9% 99.4%  
343 2% 98%  
344 2% 97%  
345 2% 95%  
346 3% 93%  
347 0.8% 90%  
348 0.5% 89%  
349 1.1% 89%  
350 1.4% 88%  
351 3% 86%  
352 7% 83%  
353 4% 76%  
354 5% 72%  
355 9% 67% Majority
356 7% 57% Median
357 4% 50%  
358 2% 47%  
359 2% 44%  
360 1.2% 43%  
361 3% 41%  
362 7% 39%  
363 8% 32%  
364 7% 24%  
365 5% 17%  
366 3% 13%  
367 1.2% 9%  
368 1.2% 8%  
369 0.3% 7%  
370 0.4% 6%  
371 0.6% 6%  
372 0.3% 5%  
373 0.3% 5%  
374 0.5% 5%  
375 0.9% 4%  
376 2% 3%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.7% 1.4%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0.1% 100%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.2% 99.7%  
312 0% 99.5%  
313 0.3% 99.4%  
314 0.2% 99.2%  
315 0.3% 98.9%  
316 0.1% 98.6%  
317 0.1% 98.5%  
318 0.2% 98%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 1.0% 97%  
322 0.6% 96%  
323 3% 96%  
324 5% 93%  
325 9% 87%  
326 6% 78% Last Result
327 3% 72%  
328 5% 69%  
329 1.4% 64%  
330 2% 63% Median
331 1.4% 61%  
332 6% 59%  
333 6% 54%  
334 10% 48%  
335 5% 38%  
336 6% 33%  
337 6% 27%  
338 3% 21%  
339 2% 18%  
340 2% 16%  
341 0.9% 15%  
342 0.5% 14%  
343 0.4% 13%  
344 1.3% 13%  
345 0.6% 12%  
346 0.6% 11%  
347 1.1% 10%  
348 6% 9%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.5% 2%  
351 1.0% 2%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.2% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.2% 99.4%  
278 0.2% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 99.0%  
280 0.2% 98.8%  
281 0.4% 98.6%  
282 0.9% 98%  
283 1.3% 97%  
284 0.9% 96%  
285 2% 95%  
286 2% 93%  
287 3% 92%  
288 5% 88%  
289 4% 83% Last Result
290 2% 79%  
291 3% 77%  
292 3% 74%  
293 3% 71%  
294 6% 69%  
295 4% 62%  
296 3% 58%  
297 0.9% 55% Median
298 5% 54%  
299 7% 50%  
300 5% 43%  
301 10% 38%  
302 6% 28%  
303 1.3% 23%  
304 3% 21%  
305 3% 18%  
306 3% 14%  
307 2% 11%  
308 0.4% 10%  
309 2% 9%  
310 2% 7%  
311 1.2% 6%  
312 2% 4%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 1.0% 2%  
315 0.4% 1.2%  
316 0.3% 0.8%  
317 0.2% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.4% 99.5%  
275 0.4% 99.1%  
276 0.3% 98.8%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.5% 98%  
280 1.3% 97%  
281 2% 96%  
282 2% 94%  
283 2% 92%  
284 2% 90%  
285 0.4% 88%  
286 0.8% 87%  
287 2% 87%  
288 4% 85%  
289 5% 81%  
290 10% 76%  
291 7% 66%  
292 4% 58%  
293 4% 54%  
294 0.9% 50% Median
295 2% 49%  
296 3% 47%  
297 4% 44%  
298 8% 40%  
299 9% 32%  
300 4% 23% Last Result
301 4% 20%  
302 2% 15%  
303 0.7% 13%  
304 2% 13%  
305 3% 11%  
306 2% 8%  
307 1.0% 7%  
308 2% 6%  
309 2% 4%  
310 0.9% 2%  
311 0.2% 1.0%  
312 0.3% 0.8%  
313 0% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
221 0.2% 99.6%  
222 0.1% 99.4%  
223 0.3% 99.3%  
224 0.4% 99.0%  
225 0.8% 98.6%  
226 0.4% 98%  
227 2% 97%  
228 2% 96%  
229 2% 94%  
230 2% 92%  
231 3% 90%  
232 4% 87%  
233 3% 83%  
234 5% 80%  
235 2% 75%  
236 7% 74%  
237 1.1% 67%  
238 9% 66%  
239 5% 57%  
240 2% 52%  
241 6% 49% Median
242 3% 44%  
243 4% 41%  
244 5% 37%  
245 2% 31%  
246 5% 29%  
247 1.3% 25%  
248 5% 23%  
249 4% 18%  
250 4% 15%  
251 3% 11%  
252 2% 8%  
253 2% 6%  
254 1.2% 3%  
255 0.5% 2%  
256 0.4% 2%  
257 0.6% 1.3%  
258 0.2% 0.7%  
259 0.1% 0.6%  
260 0.2% 0.5%  
261 0.1% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0.1% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.2% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.7%  
159 0.3% 99.6%  
160 0.2% 99.4%  
161 0.6% 99.2%  
162 0.6% 98.6%  
163 0.8% 98%  
164 0.7% 97%  
165 1.1% 97%  
166 2% 96%  
167 1.4% 93%  
168 2% 92%  
169 1.0% 90%  
170 5% 89%  
171 1.1% 84%  
172 5% 83%  
173 3% 78%  
174 4% 76%  
175 5% 71%  
176 4% 67%  
177 5% 62%  
178 5% 57% Median
179 6% 52%  
180 10% 46%  
181 6% 36%  
182 4% 30%  
183 7% 26%  
184 3% 20%  
185 6% 16%  
186 2% 11%  
187 3% 9%  
188 0% 5%  
189 3% 5%  
190 0.3% 3%  
191 1.2% 3%  
192 0.3% 1.4%  
193 0.5% 1.1%  
194 0.1% 0.7%  
195 0.3% 0.6%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.2% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.1% 99.6%  
156 0.3% 99.5%  
157 0.5% 99.1%  
158 0.2% 98.7%  
159 0.6% 98%  
160 1.2% 98%  
161 0.6% 97%  
162 1.0% 96%  
163 1.1% 95%  
164 1.3% 94%  
165 0.9% 93%  
166 3% 92%  
167 2% 89%  
168 3% 87%  
169 3% 84%  
170 6% 81%  
171 3% 75%  
172 1.5% 72%  
173 4% 71%  
174 10% 66%  
175 3% 57% Median
176 13% 54%  
177 4% 40%  
178 7% 37%  
179 3% 29%  
180 8% 26%  
181 3% 18%  
182 3% 15%  
183 5% 11%  
184 0.7% 7%  
185 2% 6%  
186 0.6% 4%  
187 1.2% 3%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.5% 1.2%  
190 0.3% 0.7%  
191 0.3% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations