Opinion Poll by Kantar, 9–15 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.6–31.7% 28.2–32.1% 27.9–32.5% 27.2–33.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 225 214–235 211–238 207–242 203–247
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 134 125–143 123–147 121–148 116–154
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 117 110–127 108–130 105–134 103–138
Alternative für Deutschland 94 67 60–74 59–77 56–78 55–82
Die Linke 69 60 54–67 52–69 50–70 48–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 47–58 44–61 43–62 41–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 46–58 45–60 43–62 40–66

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.8% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.7%  
203 0.1% 99.6%  
204 0.3% 99.4%  
205 0.2% 99.1%  
206 0.8% 99.0%  
207 1.0% 98%  
208 0.7% 97%  
209 0.2% 96%  
210 1.0% 96%  
211 2% 95%  
212 2% 94%  
213 1.3% 91%  
214 1.2% 90%  
215 1.3% 89%  
216 5% 87%  
217 3% 83%  
218 7% 80%  
219 2% 73%  
220 7% 71%  
221 2% 64%  
222 2% 63%  
223 8% 60%  
224 2% 52%  
225 3% 50% Median
226 3% 47%  
227 6% 45%  
228 8% 39%  
229 3% 31%  
230 3% 29%  
231 5% 25%  
232 6% 20%  
233 3% 14%  
234 0.2% 11%  
235 2% 10%  
236 1.0% 9%  
237 2% 8%  
238 1.0% 6%  
239 0.4% 5%  
240 1.0% 5%  
241 0.4% 4%  
242 1.5% 3%  
243 0.4% 2%  
244 0.2% 1.2%  
245 0.2% 1.0%  
246 0.2% 0.7%  
247 0.3% 0.6%  
248 0% 0.3%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0.1% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.4% 99.7%  
117 0.4% 99.3%  
118 0.3% 98.9%  
119 0.2% 98.6%  
120 0.3% 98%  
121 1.2% 98%  
122 1.0% 97%  
123 5% 96%  
124 0.6% 91%  
125 2% 91%  
126 0.5% 89%  
127 3% 88%  
128 6% 86%  
129 5% 80%  
130 6% 75%  
131 3% 68%  
132 3% 65%  
133 2% 62%  
134 14% 60% Median
135 3% 47%  
136 9% 43%  
137 1.2% 35%  
138 3% 34%  
139 1.2% 31%  
140 5% 30%  
141 6% 24%  
142 2% 19%  
143 8% 17%  
144 0.3% 8%  
145 1.5% 8%  
146 0.9% 6%  
147 3% 5%  
148 0.9% 3%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.1% 1.4%  
151 0.1% 1.3%  
152 0.5% 1.2%  
153 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
154 0.4% 0.6%  
155 0% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.6%  
103 0.1% 99.5%  
104 0.9% 99.4%  
105 1.3% 98%  
106 0.8% 97%  
107 1.1% 96%  
108 4% 95%  
109 0.5% 91%  
110 2% 91%  
111 0.5% 88%  
112 3% 88%  
113 5% 85%  
114 11% 80%  
115 3% 69%  
116 5% 66%  
117 11% 60% Median
118 3% 50%  
119 2% 47%  
120 0.9% 45%  
121 10% 44%  
122 5% 34%  
123 4% 29%  
124 2% 25%  
125 10% 23%  
126 1.3% 13%  
127 2% 12%  
128 1.3% 10%  
129 2% 9%  
130 1.4% 6%  
131 1.3% 5%  
132 0.2% 4%  
133 0.6% 3%  
134 2% 3%  
135 0.4% 1.4%  
136 0.3% 0.9%  
137 0.1% 0.7%  
138 0.3% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0% 99.7%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 0.9% 97%  
58 0.4% 96%  
59 3% 96%  
60 7% 93%  
61 2% 87%  
62 0.9% 84%  
63 8% 84%  
64 8% 76%  
65 2% 68%  
66 3% 66%  
67 19% 64% Median
68 8% 45%  
69 1.2% 37%  
70 5% 36%  
71 15% 31%  
72 2% 16%  
73 0.8% 14%  
74 4% 13%  
75 4% 10%  
76 0.8% 6%  
77 0.5% 5%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.1% 1.2%  
81 0.1% 1.1%  
82 0.6% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.5%  
49 0.6% 99.3%  
50 1.4% 98.7%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 95%  
53 1.3% 93%  
54 5% 91%  
55 5% 86%  
56 6% 81%  
57 4% 75%  
58 6% 71%  
59 15% 65%  
60 10% 51% Median
61 5% 40%  
62 6% 35%  
63 3% 29%  
64 9% 27%  
65 4% 18%  
66 2% 14%  
67 2% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 3% 6% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.2% 2%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 98.9%  
43 1.4% 98.6%  
44 3% 97%  
45 1.0% 95%  
46 3% 94%  
47 9% 91%  
48 4% 82%  
49 7% 78%  
50 9% 71%  
51 7% 62%  
52 8% 55% Median
53 13% 47%  
54 3% 34%  
55 4% 31%  
56 10% 27%  
57 4% 17%  
58 3% 13%  
59 2% 10%  
60 3% 8%  
61 1.0% 5%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.3%  
65 0.7% 1.1%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.6%  
41 0.5% 99.5%  
42 0.7% 99.0%  
43 1.2% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 95%  
46 7% 93% Last Result
47 4% 86%  
48 8% 83%  
49 10% 74%  
50 11% 64%  
51 6% 54% Median
52 9% 48%  
53 4% 38%  
54 5% 34%  
55 5% 29%  
56 5% 24%  
57 6% 19%  
58 6% 13%  
59 1.5% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 0.8% 4%  
62 0.9% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.7%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 529 100% 518–540 516–543 513–545 508–549
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 461 100% 453–474 447–476 445–479 439–486
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 448 100% 438–459 431–460 430–466 423–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 411 100% 399–422 396–425 393–429 386–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 395 100% 385–407 380–410 377–414 373–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 395 100% 384–406 380–410 377–413 372–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 14% 333–356 329–359 326–362 321–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 327 0.2% 317–340 314–343 311–346 305–352
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 314 0% 302–324 299–329 295–332 291–336
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 306 0% 294–319 290–322 289–323 281–330
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 253 0% 242–265 239–268 236–272 231–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 194 0% 184–204 181–208 178–210 173–216
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 186 0% 176–196 174–199 171–203 165–208

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0.1% 99.9%  
504 0% 99.9%  
505 0% 99.8%  
506 0.1% 99.8%  
507 0.1% 99.7%  
508 0.1% 99.6%  
509 0.2% 99.5%  
510 0.2% 99.3%  
511 0.8% 99.1%  
512 0.5% 98%  
513 0.4% 98%  
514 0.7% 97%  
515 1.0% 97%  
516 0.8% 96%  
517 1.4% 95%  
518 6% 93%  
519 1.2% 87%  
520 3% 86%  
521 3% 83%  
522 2% 80%  
523 1.3% 79%  
524 6% 77%  
525 5% 71%  
526 4% 67%  
527 2% 62% Median
528 8% 60%  
529 3% 53%  
530 2% 49%  
531 2% 47%  
532 3% 45%  
533 10% 41%  
534 3% 32%  
535 5% 29%  
536 4% 24%  
537 4% 20%  
538 3% 16%  
539 2% 13%  
540 3% 11%  
541 2% 8%  
542 0.6% 6%  
543 2% 6%  
544 0.3% 4%  
545 0.9% 3%  
546 0.9% 2%  
547 0.4% 1.5%  
548 0.2% 1.1%  
549 0.5% 0.9%  
550 0.1% 0.4%  
551 0.1% 0.3%  
552 0% 0.2%  
553 0% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0.1% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.2% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.6%  
440 0.1% 99.5%  
441 0.4% 99.3%  
442 0.2% 99.0%  
443 1.0% 98.8%  
444 0.2% 98%  
445 0.7% 98%  
446 1.1% 97%  
447 2% 96%  
448 0.6% 94%  
449 1.0% 94%  
450 0.9% 93%  
451 0.9% 92%  
452 0.6% 91%  
453 0.8% 90%  
454 5% 89%  
455 3% 85%  
456 4% 82%  
457 8% 77%  
458 3% 69%  
459 5% 66%  
460 3% 60%  
461 9% 58%  
462 0.6% 49% Median
463 3% 48%  
464 2% 46%  
465 2% 44%  
466 2% 42%  
467 0.8% 40%  
468 6% 39%  
469 9% 34%  
470 2% 25%  
471 4% 23%  
472 4% 19%  
473 0.7% 15%  
474 7% 14%  
475 1.1% 8%  
476 3% 7%  
477 0.3% 3%  
478 0.3% 3%  
479 0.4% 3% Last Result
480 0.2% 2%  
481 0.2% 2%  
482 0.3% 2%  
483 0.2% 1.4%  
484 0.7% 1.3%  
485 0.1% 0.6%  
486 0.2% 0.5%  
487 0.1% 0.3%  
488 0.1% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0.3% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.6%  
423 0% 99.5%  
424 0% 99.5%  
425 0% 99.4%  
426 0% 99.4%  
427 0.2% 99.4%  
428 0% 99.2%  
429 0.5% 99.2%  
430 3% 98.7%  
431 2% 96%  
432 0.5% 94%  
433 0.6% 94%  
434 0.2% 93%  
435 0% 93%  
436 0.3% 93%  
437 0.5% 93%  
438 2% 92%  
439 7% 90%  
440 15% 82%  
441 2% 67%  
442 1.3% 65%  
443 2% 64%  
444 0% 62%  
445 0.1% 62% Median
446 1.2% 62%  
447 5% 61%  
448 8% 56%  
449 16% 48%  
450 6% 32%  
451 2% 26%  
452 2% 23%  
453 0.2% 21%  
454 0.1% 21%  
455 0.8% 21%  
456 3% 20%  
457 2% 17%  
458 4% 15%  
459 5% 11%  
460 2% 6%  
461 0.3% 4%  
462 0.2% 3%  
463 0% 3%  
464 0.1% 3%  
465 0.2% 3%  
466 0.5% 3%  
467 0.8% 2%  
468 0.8% 2%  
469 0.3% 0.7%  
470 0.2% 0.4%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.2% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.5%  
387 0.4% 99.4%  
388 0.1% 99.0%  
389 0.1% 98.8%  
390 0.2% 98.7%  
391 0.2% 98%  
392 0.5% 98%  
393 1.4% 98%  
394 0.4% 96%  
395 0.6% 96%  
396 2% 95%  
397 1.1% 93%  
398 2% 92%  
399 1.2% 90% Last Result
400 2% 89%  
401 7% 87%  
402 1.3% 80%  
403 5% 78%  
404 1.4% 73%  
405 2% 72%  
406 2% 70%  
407 4% 68%  
408 8% 64%  
409 2% 56%  
410 2% 54% Median
411 3% 52%  
412 4% 49%  
413 4% 45%  
414 4% 41%  
415 5% 37%  
416 3% 33%  
417 4% 30%  
418 2% 26%  
419 8% 24%  
420 1.0% 16%  
421 0.8% 15%  
422 5% 14%  
423 0.7% 10%  
424 4% 9%  
425 0.5% 5%  
426 0.3% 5%  
427 1.2% 5%  
428 0.7% 3%  
429 1.0% 3%  
430 0.6% 2%  
431 0.2% 1.1%  
432 0.2% 1.0%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0.3% 0.6%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.8%  
369 0% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.4% 99.5%  
374 0.5% 99.1%  
375 0.1% 98.6%  
376 0.6% 98.5%  
377 1.4% 98%  
378 0.7% 97%  
379 0.4% 96%  
380 0.5% 95%  
381 0.8% 95%  
382 1.2% 94%  
383 0.6% 93%  
384 2% 92%  
385 4% 90%  
386 3% 87%  
387 2% 84%  
388 1.0% 83%  
389 6% 82%  
390 2% 76%  
391 2% 74%  
392 2% 72%  
393 8% 70%  
394 10% 62%  
395 4% 52% Median
396 1.1% 47%  
397 6% 46%  
398 5% 40%  
399 2% 35%  
400 4% 33%  
401 1.1% 28%  
402 3% 27%  
403 3% 24%  
404 5% 21%  
405 2% 16%  
406 3% 14%  
407 3% 11%  
408 1.5% 8%  
409 1.1% 6%  
410 0.6% 5%  
411 0.3% 4%  
412 0.5% 4%  
413 1.0% 4%  
414 0.5% 3%  
415 0.2% 2%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 1.0% 2%  
418 0.3% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.2% 99.7%  
372 0.4% 99.6%  
373 0.2% 99.2%  
374 0.1% 99.0%  
375 0.3% 98.9%  
376 0.7% 98.6%  
377 0.9% 98%  
378 1.0% 97%  
379 0.4% 96%  
380 1.1% 96%  
381 0.5% 95%  
382 0.3% 94%  
383 2% 94%  
384 7% 92%  
385 2% 85%  
386 1.3% 83%  
387 4% 82%  
388 1.4% 78%  
389 1.4% 76%  
390 9% 75%  
391 4% 66%  
392 5% 62%  
393 4% 57% Median
394 1.0% 52%  
395 4% 51%  
396 5% 48%  
397 3% 43%  
398 6% 40%  
399 6% 34%  
400 3% 29%  
401 2% 26%  
402 4% 24%  
403 1.4% 20%  
404 2% 19%  
405 5% 17%  
406 3% 12%  
407 2% 9%  
408 1.1% 7%  
409 0.2% 6%  
410 1.5% 6%  
411 0.6% 4%  
412 0.9% 4%  
413 0.5% 3%  
414 0.8% 2%  
415 0.1% 1.3%  
416 0% 1.3%  
417 0.2% 1.2%  
418 0.4% 1.0%  
419 0.2% 0.6%  
420 0.2% 0.4%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.2% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.7%  
319 0% 99.6%  
320 0% 99.6%  
321 0.6% 99.6%  
322 0.4% 98.9%  
323 0.4% 98.5%  
324 0% 98%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 0.9% 98%  
327 0.6% 97%  
328 0.5% 96%  
329 2% 96%  
330 2% 94%  
331 1.0% 92%  
332 0.4% 91%  
333 6% 90%  
334 3% 85%  
335 2% 82%  
336 0.8% 80%  
337 1.0% 79%  
338 7% 78%  
339 6% 71%  
340 2% 65% Last Result
341 1.2% 63%  
342 2% 62%  
343 13% 60% Median
344 3% 47%  
345 2% 44%  
346 8% 42%  
347 5% 34%  
348 0.6% 29%  
349 1.5% 28%  
350 4% 27%  
351 6% 23%  
352 2% 17%  
353 0.3% 15%  
354 0.5% 15%  
355 3% 14% Majority
356 5% 11%  
357 0.5% 6%  
358 0.2% 5%  
359 2% 5%  
360 0.9% 4%  
361 0.1% 3%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 1.1% 2%  
364 0.1% 1.0%  
365 0.1% 0.9%  
366 0.1% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.3% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.5% 99.5%  
307 0.1% 99.0%  
308 0.9% 98.9%  
309 0.3% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 1.1% 97%  
313 0.4% 96%  
314 2% 96%  
315 2% 93%  
316 0.7% 91%  
317 0.9% 90%  
318 5% 89%  
319 1.3% 84%  
320 1.5% 83%  
321 1.5% 81%  
322 1.2% 80%  
323 6% 79%  
324 7% 72%  
325 2% 65%  
326 9% 63% Last Result
327 5% 54%  
328 3% 49% Median
329 0.8% 46%  
330 4% 45%  
331 3% 41%  
332 2% 39%  
333 8% 37%  
334 5% 29%  
335 4% 24%  
336 3% 21%  
337 4% 17%  
338 0.3% 14%  
339 2% 13%  
340 3% 11%  
341 1.3% 9%  
342 1.3% 8%  
343 2% 6%  
344 0.5% 4%  
345 0.5% 4%  
346 1.0% 3%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.9% 2%  
350 0.4% 1.2%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.3% 99.6%  
292 1.0% 99.3%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 1.0% 97%  
297 0.5% 96%  
298 0.3% 96%  
299 0.6% 96%  
300 1.1% 95%  
301 1.5% 94%  
302 3% 92%  
303 3% 89%  
304 2% 86%  
305 5% 84%  
306 3% 79%  
307 3% 76%  
308 1.1% 73%  
309 4% 72%  
310 2% 67%  
311 5% 65% Median
312 6% 60%  
313 1.1% 54%  
314 4% 53%  
315 10% 48%  
316 8% 38%  
317 2% 30%  
318 2% 28%  
319 2% 26%  
320 6% 24%  
321 1.0% 18%  
322 2% 17%  
323 3% 16%  
324 4% 13%  
325 2% 10%  
326 0.6% 8%  
327 1.2% 7%  
328 0.8% 6%  
329 0.5% 5%  
330 0.4% 5%  
331 0.7% 4%  
332 1.4% 3%  
333 0.6% 2%  
334 0.1% 1.5%  
335 0.5% 1.4%  
336 0.4% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.2% 99.9%  
281 0.3% 99.6%  
282 0.3% 99.3%  
283 0.2% 99.0%  
284 0.3% 98.8%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.6% 98%  
289 3% 98%  
290 0.5% 95%  
291 1.1% 95%  
292 1.4% 93%  
293 2% 92%  
294 0.5% 90%  
295 2% 90%  
296 3% 88%  
297 8% 85%  
298 3% 78%  
299 5% 75%  
300 1.1% 70% Last Result
301 0.5% 69%  
302 1.2% 68%  
303 3% 67% Median
304 5% 64%  
305 5% 59%  
306 9% 54%  
307 12% 45%  
308 2% 33%  
309 1.3% 30%  
310 1.3% 29%  
311 2% 28%  
312 3% 25%  
313 3% 22%  
314 5% 19%  
315 1.1% 14%  
316 1.1% 13%  
317 0.7% 12%  
318 0.4% 11%  
319 1.3% 11%  
320 2% 9%  
321 2% 7%  
322 3% 5%  
323 0.5% 3%  
324 0.6% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.5%  
326 0.1% 1.3%  
327 0.3% 1.2%  
328 0.1% 1.0%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.3% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.6% 99.7%  
232 0.3% 99.1%  
233 0.3% 98.8%  
234 0.1% 98%  
235 0.8% 98%  
236 0.6% 98%  
237 0.6% 97%  
238 0.5% 96%  
239 1.4% 96%  
240 3% 94%  
241 0.8% 91%  
242 4% 91%  
243 0.6% 87%  
244 5% 86%  
245 0.8% 81%  
246 4% 81%  
247 1.1% 77%  
248 4% 75%  
249 2% 71%  
250 5% 69%  
251 6% 64% Median
252 2% 58%  
253 8% 56%  
254 2% 48%  
255 8% 46%  
256 3% 38%  
257 8% 35%  
258 2% 27%  
259 3% 25%  
260 2% 22%  
261 2% 20%  
262 3% 18%  
263 2% 15%  
264 1.4% 13%  
265 2% 11%  
266 3% 10%  
267 1.4% 7%  
268 1.3% 6%  
269 0.7% 5%  
270 0.8% 4%  
271 0.4% 3%  
272 1.2% 3%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.4% 1.2%  
275 0% 0.8%  
276 0.2% 0.8%  
277 0.2% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0.1% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.6%  
174 0.3% 99.5%  
175 0.2% 99.2%  
176 0.5% 99.0%  
177 0.2% 98%  
178 0.9% 98%  
179 0.1% 97%  
180 2% 97%  
181 0.7% 95%  
182 2% 94%  
183 0.5% 92%  
184 3% 92%  
185 0.5% 89%  
186 3% 89%  
187 3% 86%  
188 3% 83%  
189 4% 80%  
190 9% 76%  
191 0.7% 67%  
192 9% 67%  
193 4% 57%  
194 6% 53% Median
195 2% 47%  
196 3% 46%  
197 3% 42%  
198 11% 39%  
199 0.8% 29%  
200 4% 28%  
201 0.7% 24%  
202 8% 23%  
203 3% 15%  
204 2% 12%  
205 1.1% 9%  
206 0.9% 8%  
207 2% 7%  
208 2% 6%  
209 1.0% 4%  
210 1.0% 3%  
211 0.3% 2%  
212 0.5% 2%  
213 0.3% 1.5%  
214 0.4% 1.1%  
215 0.2% 0.8%  
216 0.2% 0.6%  
217 0.1% 0.4%  
218 0% 0.3%  
219 0.1% 0.3%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.4% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.4%  
167 0.2% 99.1%  
168 0.4% 99.0%  
169 0.3% 98.6%  
170 0.4% 98%  
171 2% 98%  
172 0.3% 96%  
173 0.9% 96%  
174 2% 95%  
175 1.3% 93%  
176 3% 92%  
177 2% 89%  
178 2% 87%  
179 3% 85%  
180 2% 82%  
181 8% 81%  
182 3% 73%  
183 7% 69%  
184 6% 62%  
185 3% 57%  
186 4% 54% Median
187 3% 50%  
188 2% 47%  
189 3% 46%  
190 6% 43%  
191 4% 36%  
192 5% 33%  
193 10% 28%  
194 3% 18%  
195 2% 15%  
196 3% 12%  
197 1.1% 9%  
198 0.8% 8%  
199 3% 7%  
200 0.7% 5%  
201 0.4% 4%  
202 0.6% 3%  
203 0.9% 3%  
204 0.6% 2%  
205 0.3% 1.4%  
206 0.2% 1.1%  
207 0.2% 0.9%  
208 0.4% 0.7%  
209 0% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations