Opinion Poll by Forsa, 14–17 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 31.7% 30.2–33.3% 29.8–33.7% 29.4–34.1% 28.7–34.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.6% 8.1–12.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.3% 6.5–8.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.7–9.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 248 233–265 229–268 227–272 220–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 126 115–137 112–139 110–140 106–147
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 117 107–126 104–131 102–133 98–138
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 72–86 68–87 66–91 63–95
Die Linke 69 63 56–70 54–72 53–74 50–79
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 56 51–63 50–66 48–69 45–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 0 0–44 0–45 0–47 0–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.6%  
220 0.1% 99.6%  
221 0.1% 99.4%  
222 0.3% 99.3%  
223 0.2% 99.0%  
224 0.2% 98.9%  
225 0.5% 98.7%  
226 0.7% 98%  
227 0.5% 98%  
228 0.5% 97%  
229 2% 97%  
230 0.4% 95%  
231 1.0% 95%  
232 0.9% 94%  
233 4% 93%  
234 3% 89%  
235 2% 86%  
236 6% 84%  
237 1.2% 78%  
238 3% 77%  
239 3% 74%  
240 5% 71%  
241 2% 66%  
242 2% 63%  
243 2% 61%  
244 3% 59%  
245 1.4% 57%  
246 3% 55%  
247 2% 52%  
248 3% 50% Median
249 3% 48%  
250 2% 45%  
251 9% 43%  
252 0.5% 35%  
253 6% 34%  
254 4% 28%  
255 1.2% 24%  
256 0.5% 23%  
257 5% 23%  
258 2% 17%  
259 0.4% 16%  
260 1.2% 15%  
261 1.1% 14%  
262 0.3% 13%  
263 0.3% 13%  
264 2% 12%  
265 3% 11%  
266 0.4% 8%  
267 0.2% 8%  
268 3% 8%  
269 0.3% 5%  
270 0.7% 4%  
271 0.3% 4%  
272 1.0% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.1% 2%  
275 1.3% 2%  
276 0.1% 0.8%  
277 0% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.6%  
279 0.4% 0.5%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.5% 99.6%  
107 0.1% 99.1%  
108 0.3% 99.0%  
109 0.8% 98.7%  
110 0.9% 98%  
111 0.9% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 0.9% 94%  
114 3% 93%  
115 2% 90%  
116 2% 88%  
117 2% 87%  
118 5% 85%  
119 4% 80%  
120 4% 77%  
121 3% 73%  
122 6% 70%  
123 4% 64%  
124 2% 60%  
125 4% 59%  
126 8% 55% Median
127 2% 47%  
128 7% 46%  
129 2% 39%  
130 3% 37%  
131 10% 34%  
132 1.1% 24%  
133 5% 23%  
134 3% 18%  
135 3% 15%  
136 1.1% 12%  
137 4% 11%  
138 1.4% 7%  
139 1.3% 6%  
140 2% 4%  
141 0.2% 2%  
142 0.4% 2%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.1% 1.3%  
145 0.7% 1.3%  
146 0% 0.5%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.4%  
100 1.4% 99.3%  
101 0.4% 98%  
102 0.3% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 0.7% 95%  
105 1.3% 95%  
106 0.7% 93%  
107 5% 93%  
108 2% 88%  
109 2% 86%  
110 2% 84%  
111 4% 82%  
112 6% 78%  
113 2% 72%  
114 6% 70%  
115 0.8% 64%  
116 9% 63%  
117 8% 54% Median
118 3% 47%  
119 11% 44%  
120 2% 33%  
121 8% 31%  
122 4% 22%  
123 2% 18%  
124 4% 16%  
125 0.9% 12%  
126 2% 11%  
127 0.4% 10%  
128 2% 9%  
129 2% 8%  
130 0.7% 6%  
131 1.3% 5%  
132 0.2% 4%  
133 1.5% 4%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.1% 2%  
136 0.7% 1.5%  
137 0.1% 0.7%  
138 0.4% 0.7%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.3%  
65 0.7% 98.9%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 0.6% 97%  
68 2% 97%  
69 0.7% 94%  
70 2% 94%  
71 1.0% 92%  
72 2% 91%  
73 1.1% 89%  
74 7% 88%  
75 5% 81%  
76 13% 76%  
77 8% 63%  
78 6% 55% Median
79 4% 50%  
80 7% 46%  
81 2% 39%  
82 3% 37%  
83 9% 34%  
84 4% 25%  
85 8% 20%  
86 5% 13%  
87 4% 8%  
88 0.7% 4%  
89 0.7% 4%  
90 0.2% 3%  
91 0.2% 3%  
92 0.2% 2%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
95 0.4% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.7%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.3%  
52 0.9% 98.6%  
53 1.3% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 2% 94%  
56 5% 91%  
57 3% 86%  
58 4% 83%  
59 6% 79%  
60 5% 73%  
61 6% 68%  
62 10% 62%  
63 5% 53% Median
64 10% 48%  
65 6% 37%  
66 3% 31%  
67 5% 28%  
68 2% 23%  
69 5% 21% Last Result
70 7% 16%  
71 1.4% 9%  
72 3% 8%  
73 1.5% 4%  
74 0.5% 3%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.1% 1.1%  
78 0.2% 1.0%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.1% 99.6%  
46 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
47 0.3% 98.7%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 0.9% 97%  
50 3% 96%  
51 5% 93%  
52 3% 89%  
53 15% 86%  
54 4% 71%  
55 14% 67%  
56 4% 53% Median
57 8% 50%  
58 9% 42%  
59 4% 33%  
60 9% 29%  
61 4% 21%  
62 5% 16%  
63 4% 12%  
64 2% 8%  
65 0.8% 6%  
66 1.0% 6%  
67 0.6% 5%  
68 1.1% 4%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.2%  
72 0.2% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Median
1 0% 47%  
2 0% 47%  
3 0% 47%  
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0% 47%  
7 0% 47%  
8 0% 47%  
9 0% 47%  
10 0% 47%  
11 0% 47%  
12 0% 47%  
13 0% 47%  
14 0% 47%  
15 0% 47%  
16 0% 47%  
17 0% 47%  
18 0% 47%  
19 0% 47%  
20 0% 47%  
21 0% 47%  
22 0% 47%  
23 0% 47%  
24 0% 47%  
25 0% 47%  
26 0% 47%  
27 0% 47%  
28 0% 47%  
29 0% 47%  
30 0% 47%  
31 0% 47%  
32 0% 47%  
33 0% 47%  
34 0% 47%  
35 0% 47%  
36 0% 47%  
37 0% 47%  
38 2% 47%  
39 8% 45%  
40 6% 37%  
41 10% 31%  
42 8% 22%  
43 3% 14%  
44 4% 11%  
45 3% 8%  
46 1.4% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 552 100% 526–570 522–573 515–575 512–582
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 449 100% 435–465 429–469 426–471 419–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 442 100% 426–457 425–463 424–467 412–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 430 100% 407–451 406–455 401–458 395–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 425 100% 400–444 399–447 398–449 388–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 406 100% 386–420 383–428 377–430 373–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 386 98% 365–400 363–409 359–413 349–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 326 1.3% 308–345 302–349 297–353 293–358
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 303 0% 289–323 281–326 279–332 277–336
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 260 0% 244–282 236–285 231–288 229–298
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 241 0% 227–257 223–262 220–266 216–272
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 176–202 171–204 169–206 162–213
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 140 0% 123–169 119–172 115–175 111–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0.1% 100%  
510 0.1% 99.9%  
511 0.2% 99.8%  
512 0.2% 99.6%  
513 0.4% 99.5%  
514 0.7% 99.1%  
515 1.0% 98%  
516 1.3% 97%  
517 0.5% 96%  
518 0.3% 96%  
519 0.2% 95%  
520 0.1% 95%  
521 0.1% 95%  
522 0.3% 95%  
523 0.3% 95%  
524 2% 94%  
525 3% 93%  
526 3% 90%  
527 4% 87%  
528 9% 83%  
529 4% 73%  
530 1.1% 69%  
531 1.2% 68%  
532 3% 67%  
533 2% 63%  
534 0.9% 62%  
535 0.5% 61%  
536 0.6% 60%  
537 0.2% 60%  
538 0.7% 60%  
539 1.1% 59%  
540 1.1% 58%  
541 0.4% 57%  
542 1.2% 56%  
543 1.1% 55%  
544 0.2% 54%  
545 0.2% 54%  
546 0.4% 54%  
547 0.2% 53% Median
548 0.7% 53%  
549 0.2% 52%  
550 0.1% 52%  
551 0.4% 52%  
552 3% 52%  
553 0.8% 48%  
554 0.5% 48%  
555 3% 47%  
556 6% 44%  
557 0.3% 38%  
558 0.3% 38%  
559 4% 38%  
560 0.6% 34%  
561 0.6% 34%  
562 2% 33%  
563 2% 32%  
564 5% 30%  
565 0.7% 25%  
566 3% 24%  
567 3% 21%  
568 6% 19%  
569 2% 13%  
570 1.1% 10%  
571 4% 9%  
572 0.2% 5%  
573 2% 5%  
574 0.4% 4%  
575 2% 3%  
576 0.2% 2%  
577 0.1% 2%  
578 0.4% 1.4%  
579 0.2% 1.0%  
580 0.3% 0.9%  
581 0.1% 0.6%  
582 0.1% 0.5%  
583 0.1% 0.5%  
584 0.2% 0.4%  
585 0.1% 0.2%  
586 0% 0.1%  
587 0% 0.1%  
588 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.8%  
419 0.3% 99.8%  
420 0% 99.4%  
421 0.1% 99.4%  
422 0.2% 99.4%  
423 0.1% 99.2%  
424 1.1% 99.1%  
425 0.1% 98%  
426 2% 98%  
427 0.4% 96%  
428 0.1% 96%  
429 0.8% 96%  
430 0.1% 95% Median
431 0.4% 95%  
432 0.3% 94%  
433 0.7% 94%  
434 2% 93%  
435 2% 91%  
436 0.4% 90%  
437 1.2% 89%  
438 3% 88%  
439 1.2% 85%  
440 7% 84%  
441 1.1% 77%  
442 0.5% 76%  
443 4% 76%  
444 5% 71%  
445 3% 67%  
446 7% 64%  
447 2% 57%  
448 1.1% 56%  
449 5% 54%  
450 2% 49%  
451 3% 47%  
452 4% 44%  
453 5% 40%  
454 0.5% 35%  
455 2% 34%  
456 2% 32%  
457 3% 30%  
458 1.5% 27%  
459 1.0% 25%  
460 4% 24%  
461 0.4% 20%  
462 6% 20%  
463 1.1% 14%  
464 2% 12%  
465 1.1% 10%  
466 1.0% 9%  
467 0.9% 8%  
468 2% 7%  
469 2% 5%  
470 0.3% 3%  
471 0.7% 3%  
472 0.5% 2%  
473 0.4% 2%  
474 0.2% 2%  
475 0.5% 1.3%  
476 0.3% 0.9%  
477 0.1% 0.6%  
478 0.1% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0.1% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0% 99.7%  
410 0.1% 99.7%  
411 0.1% 99.6%  
412 0.1% 99.5%  
413 0% 99.4%  
414 0% 99.4%  
415 0% 99.4%  
416 0% 99.4%  
417 0% 99.4%  
418 0% 99.4%  
419 0.1% 99.3%  
420 0.1% 99.3%  
421 0.3% 99.2% Median
422 0.3% 98.9%  
423 0.1% 98.6%  
424 1.2% 98%  
425 7% 97%  
426 3% 90%  
427 3% 87%  
428 3% 84%  
429 1.4% 81%  
430 0.6% 80%  
431 10% 79%  
432 3% 69%  
433 1.3% 67%  
434 2% 65%  
435 0.3% 63%  
436 0.1% 63%  
437 0.1% 62%  
438 0.1% 62%  
439 0.9% 62%  
440 2% 61%  
441 5% 60%  
442 8% 55%  
443 2% 47%  
444 1.4% 45%  
445 10% 44%  
446 3% 34%  
447 6% 31%  
448 9% 26%  
449 1.3% 16%  
450 1.5% 15%  
451 1.0% 14%  
452 0.6% 13%  
453 0.3% 12%  
454 0.9% 12%  
455 0.2% 11%  
456 0.5% 11%  
457 0.2% 10%  
458 0.2% 10%  
459 0.1% 10%  
460 2% 9%  
461 1.1% 7%  
462 0.7% 6%  
463 0.7% 6%  
464 0.5% 5%  
465 0.6% 4%  
466 0.2% 4%  
467 2% 4%  
468 0.7% 1.4%  
469 0.1% 0.7%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.2% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
390 0.1% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.8%  
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0.3% 99.7%  
396 0% 99.4%  
397 0.3% 99.4%  
398 0.2% 99.1%  
399 0.1% 98.9% Last Result
400 0.3% 98.8%  
401 1.0% 98.5%  
402 0.2% 97%  
403 0.2% 97%  
404 1.0% 97%  
405 0.6% 96%  
406 2% 96%  
407 4% 93%  
408 0.3% 90%  
409 1.0% 89%  
410 2% 88%  
411 5% 86%  
412 0.6% 81%  
413 0.4% 81%  
414 1.0% 80%  
415 2% 79%  
416 2% 77%  
417 0.6% 75%  
418 1.3% 74%  
419 1.4% 73%  
420 2% 72%  
421 6% 69%  
422 1.1% 63%  
423 2% 62%  
424 3% 61%  
425 1.0% 58%  
426 2% 57%  
427 0.9% 54%  
428 0.4% 53%  
429 2% 53%  
430 1.4% 51% Median
431 0.7% 50%  
432 0.7% 49%  
433 0.9% 48%  
434 2% 47%  
435 2% 45%  
436 0.4% 43%  
437 1.0% 43%  
438 3% 42%  
439 1.1% 39%  
440 7% 38%  
441 1.1% 32%  
442 0.2% 30%  
443 4% 30%  
444 4% 26%  
445 0.6% 22%  
446 4% 22%  
447 1.5% 18%  
448 0.3% 16%  
449 5% 16%  
450 0.4% 11%  
451 1.1% 11%  
452 4% 10%  
453 0.6% 6%  
454 0.4% 6%  
455 1.3% 5%  
456 0.2% 4%  
457 1.2% 4%  
458 0.3% 3%  
459 0.2% 2%  
460 0.2% 2%  
461 0.2% 2%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.1% 1.0%  
464 0.5% 0.9%  
465 0% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.6%  
389 0% 99.5%  
390 0.1% 99.5%  
391 0% 99.4%  
392 0% 99.4%  
393 0.2% 99.3%  
394 0% 99.1%  
395 0.2% 99.1%  
396 1.0% 98.9%  
397 0.1% 98%  
398 2% 98%  
399 2% 96%  
400 5% 95%  
401 2% 89%  
402 2% 87%  
403 3% 85%  
404 3% 82%  
405 1.2% 79%  
406 8% 78%  
407 2% 70%  
408 3% 68%  
409 0.5% 65%  
410 0.2% 65%  
411 0.5% 64%  
412 0.2% 64%  
413 0.3% 64%  
414 0.2% 63%  
415 0.7% 63%  
416 0.6% 62%  
417 0.2% 62%  
418 0.8% 62%  
419 0.9% 61%  
420 2% 60%  
421 1.3% 58% Median
422 0.8% 57%  
423 0.9% 56%  
424 2% 55%  
425 8% 53%  
426 3% 45%  
427 3% 42%  
428 3% 39%  
429 1.4% 35%  
430 0.6% 34%  
431 10% 33%  
432 3% 23%  
433 1.1% 20%  
434 2% 19%  
435 0.3% 17%  
436 0.1% 17%  
437 0% 17%  
438 0.1% 17%  
439 0.3% 16%  
440 1.4% 16%  
441 0.4% 15%  
442 2% 14%  
443 2% 12%  
444 0.7% 10%  
445 2% 10%  
446 2% 8%  
447 2% 6%  
448 0.8% 4%  
449 1.1% 3%  
450 0.5% 2%  
451 0.5% 1.2%  
452 0.2% 0.8%  
453 0.1% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.7%  
374 0.4% 99.4%  
375 0.3% 99.0%  
376 0.2% 98.7%  
377 1.0% 98%  
378 0.2% 97%  
379 0.1% 97%  
380 2% 97%  
381 0.2% 96%  
382 0.4% 95% Median
383 0.1% 95%  
384 0.5% 95%  
385 0.5% 94%  
386 7% 94%  
387 0.5% 87%  
388 0.8% 86%  
389 0.4% 85%  
390 2% 85%  
391 2% 83%  
392 6% 81%  
393 4% 75%  
394 2% 71%  
395 4% 70%  
396 2% 65%  
397 2% 63%  
398 3% 61%  
399 3% 58%  
400 2% 55%  
401 0.3% 53%  
402 0.4% 53%  
403 1.2% 52%  
404 0.5% 51%  
405 0.5% 51%  
406 4% 50%  
407 1.4% 46%  
408 10% 45%  
409 4% 36%  
410 6% 32%  
411 3% 26%  
412 1.2% 23%  
413 2% 22%  
414 3% 19%  
415 0.8% 17%  
416 1.5% 16%  
417 2% 15%  
418 2% 12%  
419 0.5% 11%  
420 1.1% 10% Last Result
421 0.1% 9%  
422 0.5% 9%  
423 0.7% 9%  
424 0.3% 8%  
425 0.5% 8%  
426 0.6% 7%  
427 1.0% 7%  
428 2% 6%  
429 1.0% 4%  
430 1.1% 3%  
431 0.7% 1.5%  
432 0.3% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.5%  
434 0.1% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0.1% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100% Last Result
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.6%  
349 0.1% 99.6%  
350 0.1% 99.5%  
351 0.3% 99.3%  
352 0.1% 99.0%  
353 0.2% 98.9%  
354 0.2% 98.7%  
355 0.3% 98% Majority
356 0.2% 98%  
357 0% 98%  
358 0.4% 98%  
359 0.8% 98%  
360 0.3% 97%  
361 0.4% 96%  
362 0.3% 96%  
363 1.2% 96%  
364 3% 94%  
365 2% 91%  
366 5% 89%  
367 3% 84%  
368 2% 82%  
369 7% 80%  
370 1.2% 73%  
371 2% 72%  
372 2% 70%  
373 1.3% 68%  
374 2% 67%  
375 0.6% 66%  
376 1.2% 65%  
377 3% 64%  
378 0.8% 60%  
379 0.5% 60%  
380 2% 59%  
381 0.9% 57%  
382 0.8% 56% Median
383 0.7% 55%  
384 1.4% 55%  
385 0.9% 53%  
386 9% 52%  
387 0.7% 44%  
388 2% 43%  
389 0.8% 41%  
390 2% 40%  
391 2% 38%  
392 6% 36%  
393 4% 30%  
394 2% 26%  
395 4% 24%  
396 2% 20%  
397 2% 18%  
398 3% 16%  
399 2% 13%  
400 2% 11%  
401 0.1% 9%  
402 0.2% 9%  
403 0.2% 9%  
404 0.1% 8%  
405 0.2% 8%  
406 0.3% 8%  
407 0.3% 8%  
408 2% 7%  
409 1.0% 6%  
410 0.2% 5%  
411 1.4% 5%  
412 0.1% 3%  
413 1.4% 3%  
414 0.1% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.8% 1.3%  
417 0% 0.4%  
418 0.2% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0.1% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.4% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.2%  
295 1.2% 99.1%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.3% 97%  
299 0.3% 97%  
300 0.6% 97%  
301 0.9% 96%  
302 0.4% 95%  
303 1.3% 95%  
304 0.6% 94% Median
305 0.4% 93%  
306 1.2% 93%  
307 1.2% 91%  
308 4% 90%  
309 7% 87%  
310 5% 79%  
311 0.6% 74%  
312 5% 74%  
313 2% 69%  
314 2% 67%  
315 2% 65%  
316 0.7% 63%  
317 0.8% 63%  
318 1.4% 62%  
319 0.6% 60%  
320 2% 60%  
321 2% 58%  
322 0.6% 56%  
323 1.0% 55%  
324 1.5% 54%  
325 0.5% 53%  
326 3% 52% Last Result
327 0.7% 49%  
328 6% 49%  
329 1.4% 42%  
330 2% 41%  
331 9% 39%  
332 2% 30%  
333 0.3% 28%  
334 9% 28%  
335 1.2% 19%  
336 0.4% 18%  
337 3% 17%  
338 0.2% 15%  
339 0.5% 14%  
340 0.8% 14%  
341 0.3% 13%  
342 2% 13%  
343 1.0% 11%  
344 0.1% 10%  
345 1.4% 10%  
346 0.9% 9%  
347 0.1% 8%  
348 2% 8%  
349 0.5% 5%  
350 0.1% 5%  
351 2% 5%  
352 0.4% 3%  
353 0.5% 3%  
354 0.7% 2%  
355 0% 1.3% Majority
356 0.2% 1.3%  
357 0.5% 1.1%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0.2% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.3% 99.5%  
278 0.7% 99.2%  
279 1.1% 98.5%  
280 1.0% 97%  
281 2% 96%  
282 1.0% 94%  
283 0.6% 93%  
284 0.5% 93%  
285 0.3% 92%  
286 0.7% 92%  
287 0.5% 91%  
288 0.1% 91%  
289 1.1% 91% Last Result
290 0.5% 90%  
291 2% 89%  
292 2% 88%  
293 1.5% 85%  
294 0.8% 84%  
295 3% 83%  
296 2% 81%  
297 1.2% 78%  
298 3% 77%  
299 6% 74%  
300 4% 68%  
301 10% 64%  
302 1.4% 55%  
303 4% 54%  
304 0.5% 50%  
305 0.5% 49%  
306 1.2% 49% Median
307 0.4% 48%  
308 0.3% 47%  
309 2% 47%  
310 3% 45%  
311 3% 42%  
312 2% 39%  
313 2% 37%  
314 4% 35%  
315 2% 30%  
316 4% 29%  
317 6% 25%  
318 2% 19%  
319 2% 17%  
320 0.4% 15%  
321 0.8% 15%  
322 0.5% 14%  
323 7% 13%  
324 0.5% 6%  
325 0.5% 6%  
326 0.1% 5%  
327 0.4% 5%  
328 0.2% 5%  
329 2% 4%  
330 0.1% 3%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 1.0% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.3%  
335 0.4% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.2% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.6%  
229 0.9% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 98.7%  
231 1.2% 98.6%  
232 0.2% 97%  
233 0.3% 97%  
234 0.3% 97%  
235 1.3% 97%  
236 0.9% 95%  
237 0.3% 94%  
238 0.3% 94%  
239 1.2% 94%  
240 0.5% 93%  
241 0.4% 92%  
242 0.3% 92%  
243 0.5% 91% Median
244 2% 91%  
245 1.0% 89%  
246 1.4% 88%  
247 6% 86%  
248 2% 80%  
249 4% 78%  
250 0.7% 73%  
251 0.4% 73%  
252 3% 72%  
253 0.5% 69%  
254 6% 68%  
255 0.7% 62%  
256 5% 61%  
257 3% 56%  
258 1.3% 53%  
259 2% 52%  
260 0.9% 51%  
261 0.4% 50%  
262 0.9% 49%  
263 0.3% 49%  
264 5% 48%  
265 0.6% 43%  
266 1.0% 42%  
267 0.2% 41%  
268 2% 41%  
269 1.4% 39%  
270 0.6% 38%  
271 0.5% 37%  
272 0.5% 37%  
273 2% 36%  
274 0.7% 35%  
275 0.4% 34%  
276 9% 34%  
277 4% 25%  
278 1.4% 21%  
279 0.8% 20%  
280 1.5% 19%  
281 8% 18%  
282 0.6% 10%  
283 2% 10%  
284 0.7% 8%  
285 3% 7%  
286 0.3% 4%  
287 0.6% 4%  
288 1.0% 3%  
289 0.1% 2%  
290 0.1% 2%  
291 0% 2%  
292 0.3% 2%  
293 0.2% 1.5%  
294 0.4% 1.3%  
295 0% 0.9%  
296 0.1% 0.9%  
297 0.3% 0.8%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
301 0.1% 0.2%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0% 99.5%  
217 0.3% 99.5%  
218 0.4% 99.2%  
219 0.8% 98.8%  
220 0.8% 98% Last Result
221 0.6% 97%  
222 1.0% 97%  
223 2% 96%  
224 2% 94%  
225 0.8% 91%  
226 0.4% 90%  
227 0.5% 90%  
228 0.5% 90%  
229 2% 89%  
230 1.4% 87%  
231 1.2% 86%  
232 1.0% 84%  
233 0.8% 83%  
234 0.7% 83%  
235 6% 82%  
236 4% 76%  
237 5% 72%  
238 3% 67%  
239 7% 64%  
240 5% 57%  
241 2% 52%  
242 0.6% 50%  
243 0.7% 49% Median
244 3% 48%  
245 2% 45%  
246 2% 44%  
247 6% 42%  
248 2% 35%  
249 4% 33%  
250 1.1% 29%  
251 0.6% 27%  
252 4% 27%  
253 0.5% 23%  
254 6% 23%  
255 1.0% 16%  
256 5% 15%  
257 3% 10%  
258 1.3% 7%  
259 0.5% 6%  
260 0.2% 6%  
261 0.3% 5%  
262 0.6% 5%  
263 0.1% 4%  
264 1.4% 4%  
265 0.1% 3%  
266 0.7% 3%  
267 0.2% 2%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.1% 1.0%  
271 0.3% 0.9%  
272 0.2% 0.6%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0.3% 0.3%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.3% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.5%  
163 0.3% 99.5%  
164 0.2% 99.1%  
165 0.1% 98.9%  
166 0.2% 98.8%  
167 0.3% 98.6%  
168 0.4% 98%  
169 2% 98%  
170 0.9% 96%  
171 0.4% 95%  
172 0.6% 95%  
173 0.7% 94%  
174 2% 93%  
175 0.9% 91%  
176 2% 91%  
177 2% 88%  
178 1.2% 86%  
179 2% 85%  
180 0.9% 83%  
181 3% 82%  
182 5% 79%  
183 2% 74%  
184 9% 72%  
185 1.2% 63%  
186 5% 62%  
187 5% 57%  
188 1.5% 52%  
189 2% 51% Median
190 3% 49%  
191 3% 46%  
192 6% 43%  
193 2% 36%  
194 3% 34%  
195 2% 31%  
196 3% 29%  
197 2% 26%  
198 2% 25%  
199 1.2% 22%  
200 2% 21%  
201 6% 20%  
202 5% 14%  
203 0.8% 8%  
204 4% 7%  
205 0.4% 3%  
206 0.5% 3%  
207 0.5% 2%  
208 0.1% 2%  
209 0.2% 2%  
210 0.6% 1.5%  
211 0.1% 0.8%  
212 0.1% 0.7%  
213 0.2% 0.7%  
214 0% 0.4%  
215 0.1% 0.4%  
216 0.1% 0.3%  
217 0% 0.2%  
218 0.1% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.1% 99.4%  
113 0.3% 99.3%  
114 1.2% 99.0%  
115 0.4% 98%  
116 0.4% 97%  
117 0.4% 97%  
118 0.6% 97%  
119 1.2% 96%  
120 1.3% 95%  
121 2% 94%  
122 0.7% 91%  
123 1.0% 90%  
124 0.6% 89%  
125 1.3% 89%  
126 5% 87% Median
127 0.8% 82%  
128 2% 81%  
129 0.4% 80%  
130 3% 79%  
131 9% 76%  
132 0.2% 67%  
133 5% 67%  
134 2% 62%  
135 3% 60%  
136 0.7% 58%  
137 4% 57%  
138 1.4% 53%  
139 1.2% 52%  
140 2% 51%  
141 0.1% 49%  
142 0.4% 49%  
143 0.5% 48%  
144 0.1% 48%  
145 0.8% 48%  
146 0.1% 47%  
147 0.3% 47%  
148 0.9% 47%  
149 0.4% 46%  
150 0.2% 46%  
151 0.3% 45%  
152 3% 45%  
153 0.9% 43%  
154 0.4% 42%  
155 0.8% 41%  
156 1.5% 40%  
157 3% 39%  
158 3% 36%  
159 1.3% 33%  
160 1.2% 32%  
161 2% 31%  
162 1.2% 29%  
163 0.4% 27%  
164 7% 27%  
165 3% 20%  
166 1.3% 18%  
167 0.9% 16%  
168 1.4% 16%  
169 5% 14%  
170 1.0% 9%  
171 3% 8%  
172 0.3% 5%  
173 1.2% 5%  
174 0.4% 4%  
175 1.3% 3%  
176 0.2% 2%  
177 0.7% 2%  
178 0.1% 0.9%  
179 0.1% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations