Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 17–20 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.5% 28.2–30.8% 27.9–31.2% 27.6–31.5% 27.0–32.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 221 212–231 208–234 207–236 201–241
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 120 111–128 110–129 109–131 105–137
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–119 103–122 102–125 98–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 79 73–85 71–87 70–89 66–93
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 67 61–74 60–76 58–77 56–80
Die Linke 69 56 51–62 50–64 48–65 46–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–59 46–60 44–62 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.7%  
202 0.3% 99.5%  
203 0.4% 99.2%  
204 0.2% 98.8%  
205 0.5% 98.6%  
206 0.4% 98%  
207 1.3% 98%  
208 2% 96%  
209 0.7% 94%  
210 2% 94%  
211 1.1% 92%  
212 2% 91%  
213 4% 89%  
214 3% 85%  
215 3% 82%  
216 4% 80%  
217 8% 75%  
218 5% 67%  
219 6% 62%  
220 6% 56%  
221 5% 51% Median
222 2% 46%  
223 10% 43%  
224 3% 34%  
225 6% 30%  
226 3% 25%  
227 4% 22%  
228 2% 18%  
229 2% 15%  
230 3% 13%  
231 1.4% 11%  
232 2% 9%  
233 2% 7%  
234 2% 6%  
235 1.3% 4%  
236 0.5% 3%  
237 0.5% 2%  
238 0.5% 2%  
239 0.4% 1.2%  
240 0% 0.8%  
241 0.6% 0.8%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.4% 99.4%  
107 0.8% 98.9%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 2% 98%  
110 1.5% 96%  
111 4% 94%  
112 2% 90%  
113 5% 88%  
114 2% 83%  
115 5% 81%  
116 6% 76%  
117 3% 71%  
118 5% 68%  
119 9% 62%  
120 5% 53% Median
121 10% 49%  
122 3% 39%  
123 9% 36%  
124 3% 27%  
125 5% 24%  
126 3% 19%  
127 6% 16%  
128 2% 10%  
129 3% 8%  
130 2% 5%  
131 0.8% 3%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.4%  
135 0.2% 1.0%  
136 0.1% 0.8%  
137 0.4% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.2% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.5%  
99 0.3% 99.2%  
100 0.7% 98.9%  
101 0.6% 98%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 96%  
104 3% 93%  
105 1.5% 90%  
106 4% 89%  
107 4% 85%  
108 4% 81%  
109 7% 77%  
110 6% 70%  
111 8% 64%  
112 6% 55% Median
113 4% 49%  
114 14% 45%  
115 3% 30%  
116 6% 27%  
117 4% 21%  
118 3% 17%  
119 4% 14%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 8%  
122 2% 6%  
123 1.1% 4%  
124 0.3% 3%  
125 2% 3%  
126 0.3% 1.1%  
127 0.2% 0.8%  
128 0.1% 0.6%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 99.1%  
69 0.4% 98%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 4% 94%  
73 4% 91%  
74 8% 87%  
75 5% 79%  
76 7% 75%  
77 10% 67%  
78 6% 58%  
79 9% 52% Median
80 6% 43%  
81 5% 37%  
82 7% 33%  
83 7% 26%  
84 6% 19%  
85 4% 13%  
86 3% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 0.6% 4%  
89 1.1% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.4%  
92 0.6% 1.2%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 2% 98.5%  
59 1.4% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 3% 93%  
62 7% 89%  
63 5% 82%  
64 4% 77%  
65 8% 73%  
66 7% 65%  
67 8% 58% Median
68 5% 49%  
69 9% 44%  
70 4% 35%  
71 8% 31%  
72 4% 23%  
73 6% 18%  
74 4% 12%  
75 2% 9%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.4% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.2% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 1.1% 99.2%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 1.3% 97%  
50 2% 96%  
51 5% 94%  
52 7% 89%  
53 8% 82%  
54 14% 73%  
55 8% 59%  
56 4% 51% Median
57 7% 47%  
58 10% 40%  
59 7% 31%  
60 8% 24%  
61 5% 16%  
62 2% 11%  
63 4% 9%  
64 1.3% 5%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.3%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 1.4% 99.5%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 1.5% 97%  
46 3% 96%  
47 3% 93%  
48 9% 90%  
49 8% 82%  
50 4% 73%  
51 7% 69%  
52 12% 62%  
53 8% 50% Median
54 6% 42%  
55 11% 36%  
56 4% 25%  
57 2% 21%  
58 6% 18%  
59 7% 13%  
60 2% 6%  
61 0.6% 4%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 521 100% 513–529 509–533 506–536 501–540
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 462 100% 452–470 448–475 446–476 442–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 453 100% 445–464 441–466 439–468 433–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 421 100% 410–430 407–433 405–435 400–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 408 100% 398–419 396–422 393–423 388–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 400 100% 391–410 389–414 385–418 381–422
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 368 96% 357–377 355–380 351–383 346–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 342 4% 332–352 327–354 326–356 320–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 288 0% 279–299 276–302 274–304 268–309
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 285 0% 275–295 272–298 270–300 265–306
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 233 0% 223–242 220–245 218–247 214–252
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 159–178 158–180 156–181 152–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 156–174 154–176 151–178 148–182

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0.1% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.8%  
501 0.3% 99.7%  
502 0.1% 99.4%  
503 0.4% 99.4%  
504 0.5% 98.9%  
505 0.2% 98%  
506 0.8% 98%  
507 0.4% 97%  
508 0.3% 97%  
509 2% 97%  
510 2% 94%  
511 0.5% 92%  
512 2% 92%  
513 3% 90%  
514 4% 87%  
515 0.7% 83%  
516 5% 83%  
517 7% 78%  
518 1.0% 71%  
519 7% 70%  
520 11% 62% Median
521 3% 51%  
522 10% 49%  
523 11% 39%  
524 3% 28%  
525 4% 25%  
526 4% 21%  
527 1.4% 17%  
528 2% 15%  
529 4% 14%  
530 0.7% 10%  
531 1.4% 9%  
532 1.2% 7%  
533 1.3% 6%  
534 1.0% 5%  
535 0.7% 4%  
536 1.4% 3%  
537 0.5% 2%  
538 0.4% 1.3%  
539 0.3% 0.9%  
540 0.1% 0.6%  
541 0.1% 0.4%  
542 0.2% 0.3%  
543 0.1% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0.1% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.2% 99.6%  
443 0.3% 99.4%  
444 0.4% 99.1%  
445 0.5% 98.7%  
446 2% 98%  
447 0.4% 96%  
448 2% 95%  
449 0.5% 94%  
450 0.4% 93%  
451 2% 93%  
452 3% 91%  
453 4% 88%  
454 4% 84%  
455 2% 80%  
456 3% 78%  
457 6% 75%  
458 9% 70%  
459 4% 61%  
460 2% 57%  
461 4% 55% Median
462 2% 50%  
463 3% 48%  
464 8% 46%  
465 6% 38%  
466 7% 32%  
467 4% 25%  
468 2% 21%  
469 7% 19%  
470 2% 12%  
471 0.8% 10%  
472 1.5% 9%  
473 0.8% 7%  
474 1.0% 7%  
475 2% 6%  
476 2% 4%  
477 0.4% 2%  
478 0.3% 1.3%  
479 0.4% 1.0%  
480 0.2% 0.6%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0% 0.2%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
428 0% 100%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.8%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.2% 99.7%  
434 0.2% 99.4%  
435 0.4% 99.2%  
436 0.1% 98.9%  
437 0.2% 98.7%  
438 0.8% 98.6%  
439 0.5% 98%  
440 1.0% 97%  
441 1.4% 96%  
442 0.4% 95%  
443 2% 94%  
444 1.3% 92%  
445 3% 91%  
446 7% 88%  
447 1.4% 81%  
448 1.1% 80%  
449 4% 79%  
450 3% 75%  
451 13% 72%  
452 6% 59%  
453 4% 53% Median
454 6% 49%  
455 5% 43%  
456 5% 38%  
457 4% 33%  
458 2% 29%  
459 5% 27%  
460 3% 22%  
461 2% 19%  
462 5% 17%  
463 0.6% 12%  
464 2% 11%  
465 3% 9%  
466 0.7% 6%  
467 2% 5%  
468 0.6% 3%  
469 0.4% 2%  
470 0.2% 2%  
471 0.3% 2%  
472 0.6% 1.4%  
473 0.3% 0.9%  
474 0.3% 0.5%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0.1% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.7%  
400 0.2% 99.6%  
401 0.3% 99.4%  
402 0.4% 99.1%  
403 0.4% 98.7%  
404 0.5% 98%  
405 0.9% 98%  
406 1.1% 97%  
407 0.9% 96%  
408 2% 95%  
409 1.4% 93%  
410 2% 92%  
411 3% 90%  
412 3% 87%  
413 1.2% 84%  
414 4% 82%  
415 3% 79%  
416 5% 76%  
417 7% 71%  
418 4% 64%  
419 2% 61%  
420 8% 59% Last Result, Median
421 8% 50%  
422 3% 43%  
423 7% 39%  
424 3% 32%  
425 5% 29%  
426 3% 24%  
427 4% 21%  
428 3% 17%  
429 3% 14%  
430 2% 12%  
431 3% 10%  
432 2% 7%  
433 1.4% 5%  
434 0.6% 4%  
435 1.4% 3%  
436 0.3% 2%  
437 0.6% 2%  
438 0.2% 1.1%  
439 0.2% 0.9%  
440 0.1% 0.7%  
441 0.2% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.4%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0.1% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.2% 99.8%  
387 0% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.6%  
389 0.1% 99.4%  
390 0.3% 99.3%  
391 0.5% 98.9%  
392 0.4% 98%  
393 1.0% 98%  
394 0.5% 97%  
395 1.5% 97%  
396 2% 95%  
397 1.4% 93%  
398 2% 92%  
399 1.1% 89%  
400 3% 88%  
401 6% 85%  
402 3% 79%  
403 2% 76%  
404 2% 74%  
405 3% 71%  
406 12% 68%  
407 1.5% 57%  
408 5% 55% Median
409 7% 50%  
410 3% 43%  
411 7% 41%  
412 2% 34%  
413 4% 32%  
414 4% 28%  
415 2% 24%  
416 5% 22%  
417 2% 17%  
418 2% 15%  
419 3% 13%  
420 4% 10%  
421 0.8% 6%  
422 1.2% 5%  
423 2% 4%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.6% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.8% 1.4%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0.2% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.7%  
380 0% 99.6%  
381 0.6% 99.5%  
382 0.2% 98.9%  
383 0.3% 98.7%  
384 0.1% 98%  
385 0.8% 98%  
386 0.4% 97%  
387 0.7% 97%  
388 0.6% 96%  
389 0.7% 96%  
390 1.4% 95%  
391 5% 94%  
392 0.8% 89%  
393 1.4% 88%  
394 6% 86%  
395 3% 81%  
396 2% 78%  
397 4% 76%  
398 3% 72%  
399 16% 69% Last Result
400 3% 53% Median
401 5% 49%  
402 5% 45%  
403 7% 40%  
404 5% 33%  
405 4% 28%  
406 3% 23%  
407 2% 21%  
408 3% 19%  
409 4% 16%  
410 3% 12%  
411 1.0% 10%  
412 2% 9%  
413 1.3% 7%  
414 1.3% 6%  
415 0.3% 4%  
416 0.5% 4%  
417 0.5% 3%  
418 1.5% 3%  
419 0.2% 1.5%  
420 0.1% 1.3%  
421 0.2% 1.2%  
422 0.5% 0.9%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0.1% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100% Last Result
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.3% 99.7%  
347 0.2% 99.4%  
348 0.1% 99.2%  
349 0.6% 99.1%  
350 0.4% 98.5%  
351 0.8% 98%  
352 0.5% 97%  
353 0.6% 97%  
354 0.6% 96%  
355 3% 96% Majority
356 0.7% 92%  
357 4% 92%  
358 3% 88%  
359 2% 86%  
360 3% 84%  
361 2% 81%  
362 6% 78%  
363 0.9% 72%  
364 3% 71%  
365 7% 69%  
366 3% 62%  
367 6% 59% Median
368 9% 53%  
369 4% 44%  
370 5% 40%  
371 2% 35%  
372 5% 33%  
373 8% 28%  
374 0.9% 20%  
375 5% 19%  
376 3% 14%  
377 2% 12%  
378 2% 9%  
379 0.6% 8%  
380 2% 7%  
381 1.4% 5%  
382 0.1% 3%  
383 1.2% 3%  
384 0.7% 2%  
385 0.1% 1.4%  
386 0.4% 1.3%  
387 0.1% 0.9%  
388 0.4% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0.2% 99.8%  
320 0.2% 99.6%  
321 0.1% 99.5%  
322 0.2% 99.3%  
323 0.4% 99.1%  
324 0.2% 98.7%  
325 0.6% 98.6%  
326 0.7% 98% Last Result
327 3% 97%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 1.2% 94%  
330 1.1% 93%  
331 1.4% 91%  
332 4% 90%  
333 2% 86%  
334 2% 85%  
335 4% 82%  
336 1.5% 78%  
337 8% 77%  
338 6% 69%  
339 3% 63%  
340 2% 59%  
341 5% 57% Median
342 8% 52%  
343 7% 44%  
344 3% 37%  
345 4% 34%  
346 3% 30%  
347 3% 27%  
348 4% 23%  
349 2% 19%  
350 4% 17%  
351 3% 13%  
352 3% 10%  
353 2% 7%  
354 1.0% 6%  
355 1.1% 4% Majority
356 0.9% 3%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.6% 2%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.3% 1.1%  
361 0.3% 0.8%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.2% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.2% 99.3%  
271 0.2% 99.1%  
272 0.6% 98.9%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 1.4% 98%  
275 0.6% 97%  
276 1.4% 96%  
277 2% 95%  
278 3% 93%  
279 2% 90%  
280 3% 88%  
281 3% 86%  
282 4% 83%  
283 3% 79%  
284 5% 76%  
285 3% 71%  
286 7% 68%  
287 3% 61%  
288 8% 57% Median
289 8% 50% Last Result
290 2% 41%  
291 4% 39%  
292 7% 36%  
293 5% 29%  
294 3% 24%  
295 4% 21%  
296 1.2% 18%  
297 3% 16%  
298 3% 13%  
299 2% 10%  
300 1.4% 8%  
301 2% 7%  
302 0.9% 5%  
303 1.1% 4%  
304 0.9% 3%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.4% 1.3%  
308 0.3% 0.9%  
309 0.2% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.3% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.3%  
267 0.1% 99.2%  
268 0.5% 99.0%  
269 0.3% 98.5%  
270 2% 98%  
271 0.7% 96%  
272 1.1% 95%  
273 0.4% 94%  
274 3% 94%  
275 0.8% 91%  
276 5% 90%  
277 0.4% 85%  
278 6% 84%  
279 0.9% 78%  
280 2% 77%  
281 6% 76%  
282 7% 70%  
283 3% 62%  
284 5% 59%  
285 5% 55% Median
286 1.3% 49%  
287 11% 48%  
288 2% 37%  
289 8% 35%  
290 0.8% 27%  
291 8% 26%  
292 0.8% 18%  
293 5% 17%  
294 1.1% 12%  
295 4% 11%  
296 0.6% 8%  
297 0.7% 7%  
298 2% 6%  
299 2% 5%  
300 0.8% 3% Last Result
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0.6% 2%  
303 0.1% 1.3%  
304 0.4% 1.3%  
305 0% 0.8%  
306 0.5% 0.8%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
208 0% 100%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0.4% 99.6%  
215 0.3% 99.3%  
216 0.4% 98.9%  
217 1.0% 98.5%  
218 0.6% 98%  
219 0.5% 97%  
220 2% 96% Last Result
221 2% 95%  
222 2% 93%  
223 4% 91%  
224 1.2% 86%  
225 2% 85%  
226 4% 84%  
227 5% 80%  
228 7% 75%  
229 5% 68%  
230 4% 64%  
231 4% 59%  
232 2% 55% Median
233 6% 54%  
234 8% 47%  
235 7% 39%  
236 6% 32%  
237 2% 26%  
238 4% 23%  
239 3% 20%  
240 4% 16%  
241 2% 12%  
242 2% 10%  
243 0.8% 8%  
244 1.4% 7%  
245 1.2% 5%  
246 1.0% 4%  
247 0.8% 3%  
248 0.8% 2%  
249 0.7% 2%  
250 0.1% 1.0%  
251 0.3% 0.8%  
252 0.2% 0.6%  
253 0.1% 0.4%  
254 0.1% 0.3%  
255 0.1% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.1% 99.4%  
154 0.3% 99.3%  
155 0.3% 98.9%  
156 1.2% 98.7%  
157 2% 97%  
158 4% 95%  
159 4% 92%  
160 2% 88%  
161 4% 86%  
162 2% 82%  
163 0.4% 80%  
164 1.3% 80%  
165 2% 79%  
166 6% 77%  
167 9% 71%  
168 15% 62% Median
169 14% 47%  
170 5% 33%  
171 3% 28%  
172 1.3% 26%  
173 0.5% 25%  
174 0.9% 24%  
175 4% 23%  
176 3% 20%  
177 3% 16%  
178 4% 13%  
179 3% 9%  
180 2% 5%  
181 1.1% 3%  
182 0.3% 2%  
183 0.2% 2%  
184 0.1% 1.4%  
185 0.4% 1.3%  
186 0.3% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.7%  
188 0.3% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.6%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.5% 99.2%  
151 1.4% 98.7%  
152 0.3% 97%  
153 1.4% 97%  
154 1.3% 96%  
155 2% 94%  
156 3% 92%  
157 3% 89%  
158 6% 86%  
159 2% 81%  
160 3% 78%  
161 3% 75%  
162 10% 72%  
163 3% 62%  
164 2% 59%  
165 4% 57% Median
166 13% 53%  
167 5% 40%  
168 2% 35%  
169 3% 32%  
170 8% 29%  
171 5% 21%  
172 1.3% 17%  
173 3% 15%  
174 3% 12%  
175 4% 9%  
176 0.7% 6%  
177 1.3% 5%  
178 1.4% 4%  
179 0.7% 2%  
180 0.3% 2%  
181 0.5% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.8%  
183 0.1% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations