Opinion Poll by Kantar, 16–22 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.6–32.2% 29.2–32.6% 28.9–32.9% 28.2–33.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.2% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 227 221–235 218–239 216–241 212–247
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 117 111–124 110–126 107–128 105–133
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 111 105–119 102–122 100–124 97–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–90 75–91 74–93 71–98
Die Linke 69 68 63–74 61–75 60–77 57–80
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 55 49–59 48–61 47–62 44–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 42–50 40–51 39–54 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0.1% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.2% 99.7%  
213 0.4% 99.5%  
214 0.1% 99.1%  
215 1.1% 99.0%  
216 0.7% 98%  
217 0.6% 97%  
218 3% 97%  
219 2% 93%  
220 0.9% 92%  
221 6% 91%  
222 3% 85%  
223 0.9% 81%  
224 16% 80%  
225 2% 65%  
226 1.2% 63%  
227 16% 62% Median
228 5% 46%  
229 0.8% 41%  
230 4% 40%  
231 13% 36%  
232 1.3% 23%  
233 4% 22%  
234 4% 17%  
235 4% 13%  
236 2% 10%  
237 2% 7%  
238 0.5% 6%  
239 2% 5%  
240 0.4% 3%  
241 0.4% 3%  
242 0.6% 2%  
243 0.4% 2%  
244 0.2% 1.1%  
245 0.3% 0.9%  
246 0.1% 0.6%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.4%  
250 0% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0.4% 99.7%  
106 0.8% 99.3%  
107 2% 98.6%  
108 0.3% 97%  
109 1.1% 97%  
110 4% 96%  
111 4% 91%  
112 2% 88%  
113 3% 85%  
114 1.2% 82%  
115 8% 81%  
116 15% 73%  
117 14% 58% Median
118 7% 44%  
119 3% 37%  
120 2% 34%  
121 5% 32%  
122 5% 27%  
123 9% 23%  
124 6% 14%  
125 2% 8%  
126 0.6% 5%  
127 1.1% 5%  
128 1.5% 4%  
129 0.6% 2%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.2% 1.1%  
132 0.3% 1.0%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.5% 99.4%  
99 0.4% 98.9%  
100 1.4% 98.5%  
101 0.6% 97%  
102 2% 97%  
103 1.0% 95%  
104 3% 94%  
105 4% 91%  
106 3% 87%  
107 5% 84%  
108 6% 79%  
109 8% 73%  
110 9% 65%  
111 7% 57% Median
112 4% 50%  
113 6% 45%  
114 2% 39%  
115 10% 37%  
116 3% 27%  
117 9% 24%  
118 4% 15%  
119 2% 12%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 8%  
122 2% 6%  
123 1.0% 4%  
124 0.7% 3%  
125 0.5% 2%  
126 0.3% 1.4%  
127 0.3% 1.1%  
128 0.4% 0.8%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.6%  
72 0.4% 99.3%  
73 1.2% 99.0%  
74 1.2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 5% 92%  
78 3% 87%  
79 4% 84%  
80 8% 81%  
81 4% 72%  
82 10% 68%  
83 7% 58%  
84 7% 51% Median
85 12% 44%  
86 8% 31%  
87 5% 24%  
88 4% 19%  
89 4% 15%  
90 4% 11%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.4% 4%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.8% 2% Last Result
95 0.3% 1.2%  
96 0.1% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.7%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.3%  
59 1.0% 98.9%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 4% 94%  
63 5% 90%  
64 9% 86%  
65 5% 77%  
66 6% 72%  
67 6% 66%  
68 13% 60% Median
69 7% 47% Last Result
70 10% 40%  
71 4% 30%  
72 11% 26%  
73 3% 15%  
74 7% 12%  
75 1.1% 5%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.2% 1.0%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 0.3% 99.4%  
46 1.4% 99.2% Last Result
47 1.1% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 6% 93%  
50 5% 88%  
51 9% 83%  
52 6% 75%  
53 15% 69%  
54 3% 54%  
55 15% 51% Median
56 5% 36%  
57 13% 31%  
58 2% 18%  
59 7% 16%  
60 1.3% 9%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.4%  
65 0.5% 1.0%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 0% 98.9%  
8 0% 98.9%  
9 0% 98.9%  
10 0% 98.9%  
11 0% 98.9%  
12 0% 98.9%  
13 0% 98.9%  
14 0% 98.9%  
15 0% 98.9%  
16 0% 98.9%  
17 0% 98.9%  
18 0% 98.9%  
19 0% 98.9%  
20 0% 98.9%  
21 0% 98.9%  
22 0% 98.9%  
23 0% 98.9%  
24 0% 98.9%  
25 0% 98.9%  
26 0% 98.9%  
27 0% 98.9%  
28 0% 98.9%  
29 0% 98.9%  
30 0% 98.9%  
31 0% 98.9%  
32 0% 98.9%  
33 0% 98.9%  
34 0% 98.9%  
35 0% 98.9%  
36 0% 98.9%  
37 0.1% 98.9%  
38 0.7% 98.7%  
39 1.2% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 3% 94%  
42 7% 91%  
43 13% 83%  
44 5% 70%  
45 12% 65%  
46 13% 53% Median
47 10% 41%  
48 10% 31%  
49 4% 20%  
50 9% 17%  
51 3% 8%  
52 1.2% 5%  
53 0.7% 4%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 1.0%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 511 100% 505–518 504–520 503–523 500–543
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 446 100% 438–453 435–457 432–459 419–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 439 100% 430–450 427–452 423–454 417–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 411 100% 401–420 398–424 395–427 388–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 400 100% 392–407 391–411 389–414 384–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 394 100% 385–404 382–407 380–410 374–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 365 93% 356–376 353–380 350–383 345–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 326 0.1% 319–336 314–342 311–344 299–347
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 298 0% 289–308 285–311 282–314 277–321
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 277 0% 266–284 262–287 259–290 240–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 231 0% 221–239 218–241 217–244 212–250
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 186 0% 177–195 175–198 172–200 169–206
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 163 0% 156–171 153–175 149–178 121–181

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0.2% 99.9%  
499 0.2% 99.7%  
500 0.2% 99.6%  
501 0.4% 99.4%  
502 0.9% 98.9%  
503 1.3% 98%  
504 3% 97%  
505 5% 94%  
506 3% 89%  
507 9% 87%  
508 4% 78%  
509 11% 74%  
510 5% 63% Median
511 10% 59%  
512 6% 49%  
513 8% 43%  
514 5% 35%  
515 10% 30%  
516 5% 20%  
517 3% 15%  
518 3% 12%  
519 4% 9%  
520 0.8% 5%  
521 1.0% 5%  
522 0.7% 4%  
523 0.7% 3%  
524 0.1% 2%  
525 0.1% 2%  
526 0.1% 2%  
527 0.1% 2%  
528 0% 2%  
529 0.1% 2%  
530 0.1% 2%  
531 0% 2%  
532 0% 1.5%  
533 0.1% 1.5%  
534 0.1% 1.4%  
535 0.1% 1.2%  
536 0% 1.1%  
537 0% 1.1%  
538 0.1% 1.1%  
539 0.2% 1.0%  
540 0.2% 0.7%  
541 0% 0.6%  
542 0% 0.5%  
543 0.2% 0.5%  
544 0% 0.3%  
545 0% 0.3%  
546 0% 0.3%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.2%  
549 0% 0.2%  
550 0% 0.2%  
551 0% 0.2%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.3% 99.9%  
419 0.3% 99.6%  
420 0% 99.4%  
421 0% 99.3%  
422 0.1% 99.3%  
423 0% 99.3%  
424 0% 99.2%  
425 0.1% 99.2%  
426 0.2% 99.1%  
427 0.1% 98.9%  
428 0.5% 98.8%  
429 0% 98%  
430 0.3% 98%  
431 0.2% 98%  
432 1.0% 98%  
433 0.3% 97%  
434 0.6% 96%  
435 2% 96%  
436 1.4% 94%  
437 2% 92%  
438 3% 90%  
439 10% 87%  
440 6% 77%  
441 5% 71%  
442 1.5% 66%  
443 1.3% 64%  
444 5% 63%  
445 3% 58% Median
446 7% 55%  
447 8% 47%  
448 3% 39%  
449 5% 36%  
450 7% 31%  
451 10% 25%  
452 4% 15%  
453 2% 11%  
454 2% 9%  
455 1.1% 7%  
456 1.0% 6%  
457 0.9% 5%  
458 0.9% 4%  
459 0.8% 3%  
460 0.4% 2%  
461 0.9% 2%  
462 0.4% 1.2%  
463 0.2% 0.8%  
464 0.2% 0.6%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0.1% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.8%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0.2% 99.8%  
415 0% 99.6%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0.1% 99.5%  
418 0.1% 99.4%  
419 0.3% 99.3%  
420 0.2% 99.0%  
421 0.2% 98.7%  
422 0.5% 98.5%  
423 0.6% 98%  
424 0.5% 97%  
425 1.4% 97%  
426 0.4% 95%  
427 0.6% 95%  
428 1.3% 94%  
429 1.3% 93%  
430 3% 92%  
431 4% 88%  
432 2% 85%  
433 7% 83%  
434 4% 76%  
435 2% 71%  
436 8% 70%  
437 2% 62%  
438 3% 60%  
439 12% 58% Median
440 3% 46%  
441 3% 42%  
442 4% 40%  
443 2% 36%  
444 5% 34%  
445 2% 28%  
446 6% 26%  
447 5% 20%  
448 1.2% 15%  
449 3% 13%  
450 0.7% 10%  
451 3% 9%  
452 2% 6%  
453 0.8% 4%  
454 1.3% 4%  
455 0.7% 2%  
456 0.6% 2%  
457 0.2% 1.0%  
458 0.1% 0.8%  
459 0.2% 0.7%  
460 0.3% 0.6%  
461 0.2% 0.3%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.6%  
389 0.1% 99.5%  
390 0.5% 99.4%  
391 0.1% 98.9%  
392 0.7% 98.8%  
393 0.2% 98%  
394 0.2% 98%  
395 0.6% 98%  
396 0.3% 97%  
397 1.3% 97%  
398 2% 95%  
399 1.2% 94%  
400 1.0% 93%  
401 2% 92%  
402 1.0% 90%  
403 3% 89%  
404 4% 86%  
405 2% 82%  
406 7% 80%  
407 6% 73%  
408 2% 67%  
409 8% 65%  
410 3% 57%  
411 5% 54%  
412 12% 50% Median
413 6% 38%  
414 4% 32%  
415 1.0% 28%  
416 3% 27%  
417 4% 24%  
418 7% 20%  
419 2% 13%  
420 1.3% 11% Last Result
421 1.0% 10%  
422 0.8% 9%  
423 1.3% 8%  
424 2% 7%  
425 2% 5%  
426 0.7% 3%  
427 0.8% 3%  
428 0.1% 2%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.4% 1.3%  
431 0.1% 0.9%  
432 0.5% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0.1% 100%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.3% 99.7%  
385 0.2% 99.4%  
386 0.4% 99.3%  
387 0.7% 98.9%  
388 0.6% 98%  
389 2% 98%  
390 0.5% 96%  
391 3% 95%  
392 3% 92%  
393 2% 89%  
394 5% 87%  
395 5% 82%  
396 13% 77%  
397 2% 64%  
398 2% 61%  
399 5% 59% Last Result, Median
400 6% 54%  
401 8% 48%  
402 8% 40%  
403 2% 32%  
404 12% 30%  
405 2% 18%  
406 6% 16%  
407 1.4% 10%  
408 1.3% 9%  
409 1.2% 7%  
410 1.1% 6%  
411 0.7% 5%  
412 0.7% 4%  
413 0.5% 4%  
414 0.8% 3%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.1% 2%  
417 0.1% 2%  
418 0.3% 2%  
419 0.3% 1.3%  
420 0.1% 1.0%  
421 0.2% 0.9%  
422 0.1% 0.7%  
423 0% 0.6%  
424 0% 0.6%  
425 0% 0.5%  
426 0.2% 0.5%  
427 0% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.2% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0.6% 99.4%  
377 0.2% 98.8%  
378 0.5% 98.5%  
379 0.4% 98%  
380 1.0% 98%  
381 0.7% 97%  
382 2% 96%  
383 2% 94%  
384 2% 93%  
385 4% 90%  
386 4% 86%  
387 2% 82%  
388 6% 80%  
389 0.9% 74%  
390 6% 73%  
391 2% 67%  
392 6% 66%  
393 9% 60% Median
394 6% 51%  
395 3% 45%  
396 6% 42%  
397 4% 36%  
398 3% 32%  
399 8% 29%  
400 3% 21%  
401 3% 18%  
402 2% 15%  
403 2% 13%  
404 2% 11%  
405 0.8% 9%  
406 2% 8%  
407 2% 6%  
408 0.7% 4%  
409 0.7% 3%  
410 0.8% 3%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.1% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.2% 1.3%  
415 0.1% 1.1%  
416 0.1% 1.0%  
417 0.1% 0.9%  
418 0% 0.8%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.1% 0.6%  
421 0% 0.5%  
422 0.3% 0.5%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9% Last Result
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.3% 99.5%  
347 0.5% 99.2%  
348 0.3% 98.7%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 1.4% 98%  
351 0.8% 97%  
352 0.9% 96%  
353 1.2% 95%  
354 0.9% 94%  
355 2% 93% Majority
356 2% 91%  
357 2% 90%  
358 3% 88%  
359 2% 85%  
360 7% 83%  
361 4% 76%  
362 7% 71%  
363 3% 65%  
364 10% 62%  
365 5% 52%  
366 9% 47% Median
367 2% 39%  
368 7% 36%  
369 2% 29%  
370 4% 26%  
371 4% 23%  
372 3% 19%  
373 0.9% 15%  
374 0.9% 15%  
375 3% 14%  
376 3% 11%  
377 2% 8%  
378 0.5% 7%  
379 0.9% 6%  
380 0.5% 5%  
381 1.1% 5%  
382 0.9% 4%  
383 0.5% 3%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.2% 1.4%  
388 0.1% 1.2%  
389 0.2% 1.1%  
390 0.3% 0.9%  
391 0% 0.7%  
392 0% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.6%  
394 0% 0.5%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0.2% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0.1% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.2% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0.2% 99.2%  
302 0% 99.0%  
303 0.1% 99.0%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.8%  
306 0.1% 98.7%  
307 0.1% 98.6%  
308 0.1% 98.5%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 1.2% 98%  
312 0.4% 97%  
313 0.4% 97%  
314 2% 96%  
315 1.1% 94%  
316 1.0% 93%  
317 0.5% 92%  
318 0.4% 91%  
319 1.1% 91%  
320 1.4% 90%  
321 3% 88%  
322 11% 86%  
323 6% 74%  
324 11% 68%  
325 2% 57%  
326 9% 55% Last Result
327 2% 46%  
328 1.2% 44% Median
329 0.8% 43%  
330 3% 43%  
331 2% 40%  
332 9% 38%  
333 3% 29%  
334 7% 25%  
335 5% 18%  
336 3% 13%  
337 0.8% 10%  
338 2% 9%  
339 0.5% 8%  
340 0.9% 7%  
341 0.2% 6%  
342 1.2% 6%  
343 1.2% 5%  
344 2% 4%  
345 0.6% 2%  
346 0.5% 1.2%  
347 0.3% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.5% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.2%  
279 0.4% 99.1%  
280 0.3% 98.7%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.8% 98%  
283 0.7% 97%  
284 2% 97%  
285 2% 95%  
286 1.3% 93%  
287 0.8% 92%  
288 1.0% 91%  
289 1.3% 90% Last Result
290 2% 89%  
291 7% 87%  
292 4% 80%  
293 3% 76%  
294 1.0% 73%  
295 4% 72%  
296 6% 68% Median
297 12% 62%  
298 5% 50%  
299 3% 46%  
300 8% 43%  
301 2% 35%  
302 6% 33%  
303 7% 27%  
304 2% 20%  
305 4% 18%  
306 3% 14%  
307 1.0% 11%  
308 2% 10%  
309 1.0% 8%  
310 1.2% 7%  
311 2% 6%  
312 1.3% 5%  
313 0.3% 3%  
314 0.6% 3%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.7% 2%  
318 0.1% 1.2%  
319 0.5% 1.1%  
320 0.1% 0.6%  
321 0.2% 0.5%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.3% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.4%  
242 0% 99.4%  
243 0% 99.4%  
244 0% 99.4%  
245 0% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 99.4%  
247 0% 99.1%  
248 0% 99.1%  
249 0% 99.1%  
250 0.1% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 99.0%  
252 0% 98.9%  
253 0.1% 98.9%  
254 0.2% 98.8%  
255 0.2% 98.5%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.6% 97%  
261 0.6% 97%  
262 2% 96%  
263 2% 94%  
264 0.1% 92%  
265 2% 92%  
266 3% 91%  
267 1.3% 88%  
268 3% 86%  
269 3% 83%  
270 0.5% 80%  
271 8% 80%  
272 6% 72%  
273 2% 66%  
274 8% 64% Median
275 5% 57%  
276 0.5% 52%  
277 17% 51%  
278 3% 34%  
279 0.6% 31%  
280 10% 30%  
281 1.3% 20%  
282 1.3% 19%  
283 6% 17%  
284 2% 11%  
285 0.7% 9%  
286 3% 9%  
287 1.5% 6%  
288 0.6% 5%  
289 1.2% 4%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.2% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.8% 2%  
294 0.1% 0.7%  
295 0.2% 0.6%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1% Last Result
301 0.1% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0.2% 99.8%  
212 0.6% 99.6%  
213 0.1% 98.9%  
214 0.3% 98.8%  
215 0.2% 98.6%  
216 0.6% 98%  
217 0.9% 98%  
218 2% 97%  
219 0.8% 94%  
220 1.5% 94% Last Result
221 5% 92%  
222 2% 87%  
223 2% 85%  
224 2% 83%  
225 6% 81%  
226 6% 75%  
227 10% 69%  
228 1.5% 59% Median
229 4% 58%  
230 3% 54%  
231 9% 50%  
232 6% 42%  
233 6% 35%  
234 7% 29%  
235 4% 22%  
236 5% 19%  
237 2% 13%  
238 0.9% 11%  
239 1.0% 10%  
240 3% 9%  
241 3% 7%  
242 0.8% 4%  
243 0.2% 3%  
244 0.6% 3%  
245 0.6% 2%  
246 0.5% 1.4%  
247 0.2% 0.9%  
248 0.1% 0.7%  
249 0.1% 0.6%  
250 0.2% 0.5%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.2% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0.2% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.5%  
170 0.4% 99.3%  
171 0.4% 99.0%  
172 1.2% 98.6%  
173 0.3% 97%  
174 2% 97%  
175 0.7% 95%  
176 2% 95%  
177 3% 92%  
178 3% 89%  
179 2% 86%  
180 2% 84%  
181 6% 82%  
182 7% 76%  
183 5% 69%  
184 4% 63%  
185 8% 60% Median
186 7% 51%  
187 7% 45%  
188 5% 37%  
189 3% 32%  
190 2% 29%  
191 4% 27%  
192 4% 23%  
193 5% 19%  
194 1.2% 14%  
195 4% 13%  
196 1.2% 9%  
197 3% 8%  
198 2% 5%  
199 0.8% 4%  
200 1.0% 3%  
201 0.4% 2%  
202 0.3% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.2%  
204 0.2% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.7%  
206 0.2% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.6%  
122 0% 99.3%  
123 0% 99.3%  
124 0% 99.3%  
125 0% 99.3%  
126 0.2% 99.2%  
127 0% 99.1%  
128 0% 99.1%  
129 0% 99.1%  
130 0.1% 99.1%  
131 0% 99.0%  
132 0% 99.0%  
133 0% 99.0%  
134 0% 99.0%  
135 0% 99.0%  
136 0% 99.0%  
137 0% 99.0%  
138 0% 98.9%  
139 0% 98.9%  
140 0% 98.9%  
141 0% 98.9%  
142 0% 98.9%  
143 0% 98.8%  
144 0.1% 98.8%  
145 0.1% 98.7%  
146 0.2% 98.6%  
147 0.2% 98%  
148 0.4% 98%  
149 1.3% 98%  
150 0.4% 96%  
151 0.2% 96%  
152 0.6% 96%  
153 0.9% 95%  
154 3% 94%  
155 0.6% 92%  
156 2% 91%  
157 3% 89%  
158 3% 86%  
159 5% 83%  
160 8% 78%  
161 6% 70%  
162 9% 64%  
163 8% 55% Median
164 3% 47%  
165 7% 44%  
166 7% 38%  
167 5% 31%  
168 7% 26%  
169 4% 19%  
170 3% 14%  
171 4% 12%  
172 0.6% 7%  
173 1.1% 7%  
174 0.3% 5%  
175 1.3% 5%  
176 0.8% 4%  
177 0.4% 3%  
178 0.6% 3%  
179 0.9% 2%  
180 0.4% 1.0%  
181 0.2% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.5%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations