Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 24–27 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.8–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.5% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 219 210–229 207–230 205–233 200–237
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 120 113–127 111–129 109–132 107–137
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 118 110–125 108–127 106–129 102–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 73–85 71–87 70–90 68–93
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 68 62–74 60–76 59–77 57–80
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 55 49–59 46–59 46–62 43–65
Die Linke 69 52 48–58 47–60 45–61 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
201 0.6% 99.5%  
202 0.3% 98.9%  
203 0.3% 98.6%  
204 0.5% 98%  
205 0.8% 98%  
206 2% 97%  
207 2% 96%  
208 0.5% 94%  
209 1.4% 93%  
210 2% 92%  
211 3% 90%  
212 5% 87%  
213 2% 82%  
214 1.4% 79%  
215 7% 78%  
216 15% 72%  
217 2% 56%  
218 2% 54%  
219 6% 51% Median
220 11% 45%  
221 4% 33%  
222 1.4% 30%  
223 2% 28%  
224 4% 26%  
225 7% 22%  
226 2% 15%  
227 0.7% 14%  
228 1.5% 13%  
229 5% 11%  
230 3% 7%  
231 0.5% 4%  
232 0.7% 3%  
233 1.2% 3%  
234 0.4% 2%  
235 0.3% 1.1%  
236 0.2% 0.8%  
237 0.2% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.5%  
239 0.2% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.4% 99.6%  
108 1.4% 99.2%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 0.4% 97%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 92%  
114 0.5% 89%  
115 4% 89%  
116 15% 85%  
117 7% 70%  
118 0.9% 63%  
119 8% 62%  
120 8% 54% Median
121 5% 46%  
122 2% 41%  
123 14% 39%  
124 10% 25%  
125 4% 15%  
126 0.8% 11%  
127 2% 11%  
128 2% 9%  
129 2% 6%  
130 0.8% 5%  
131 0.6% 4%  
132 1.0% 3%  
133 1.0% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.4%  
135 0.1% 0.8%  
136 0.2% 0.8%  
137 0.3% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.5%  
103 0.2% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 99.1%  
105 0.7% 98.5%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 1.5% 97%  
108 1.2% 95%  
109 3% 94%  
110 3% 91%  
111 2% 89%  
112 5% 87%  
113 2% 82%  
114 2% 80%  
115 9% 78%  
116 3% 69%  
117 1.5% 66%  
118 23% 64% Median
119 8% 42%  
120 1.4% 34%  
121 10% 32%  
122 6% 23%  
123 2% 16%  
124 4% 14%  
125 4% 10%  
126 1.1% 6%  
127 2% 5%  
128 0.5% 3%  
129 0.5% 3%  
130 1.2% 2%  
131 0.1% 1.1%  
132 0.2% 1.0%  
133 0.6% 0.8%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 1.0% 99.2%  
70 1.1% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 2% 92%  
74 8% 90%  
75 5% 82%  
76 6% 76%  
77 7% 70%  
78 18% 63% Median
79 9% 45%  
80 3% 36%  
81 13% 33%  
82 2% 19%  
83 4% 17%  
84 2% 13%  
85 3% 11%  
86 3% 8%  
87 1.2% 6%  
88 0.9% 4%  
89 0.7% 3%  
90 1.0% 3%  
91 0.3% 2%  
92 0.9% 1.4%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 0.4% 99.0%  
59 1.3% 98.6%  
60 4% 97%  
61 2% 93%  
62 3% 91%  
63 10% 88%  
64 1.4% 78%  
65 12% 77%  
66 4% 65%  
67 9% 60%  
68 15% 51% Median
69 5% 36%  
70 6% 31%  
71 6% 25%  
72 3% 19%  
73 4% 16%  
74 5% 12%  
75 0.8% 7%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.3%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 0% 98.8%  
45 0.9% 98.8%  
46 4% 98%  
47 0.4% 94%  
48 1.2% 94%  
49 13% 92%  
50 2% 80%  
51 0.5% 78%  
52 14% 78%  
53 10% 64%  
54 0.3% 54%  
55 34% 54% Median
56 4% 20%  
57 0.1% 16%  
58 4% 16%  
59 7% 12%  
60 0.2% 5%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.1% 0.9%  
64 0.1% 0.8%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 0.7% 99.3%  
45 2% 98.7%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 9% 93%  
49 4% 84%  
50 5% 80%  
51 20% 74%  
52 8% 54% Median
53 4% 46%  
54 17% 42%  
55 8% 25%  
56 2% 17%  
57 3% 15%  
58 4% 11%  
59 1.1% 7%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 525 100% 516–533 512–534 510–538 506–542
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 461 100% 451–469 448–473 445–475 440–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 458 100% 449–465 443–465 439–467 436–475
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 418 100% 410–428 407–430 403–433 398–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 397–416 394–419 391–423 386–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 404 100% 394–411 390–414 387–417 383–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 365 95% 359–373 355–380 348–381 343–386
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 339 3% 332–350 328–353 325–356 318–358
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 291 0% 281–299 279–302 276–306 271–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 292 0% 281–300 279–303 276–305 269–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 239 0% 228–246 226–250 223–252 219–257
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 162–178 159–181 157–184 153–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 173 0% 162–178 158–180 156–183 153–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.9%  
504 0.2% 99.8%  
505 0% 99.6%  
506 0.1% 99.6%  
507 0.3% 99.4%  
508 0.4% 99.1%  
509 0.7% 98.8%  
510 0.7% 98%  
511 0.9% 97%  
512 2% 97%  
513 0.7% 95%  
514 1.4% 94%  
515 2% 93%  
516 2% 91%  
517 2% 89%  
518 3% 87%  
519 10% 85%  
520 3% 74%  
521 2% 71%  
522 6% 69%  
523 5% 63%  
524 5% 57%  
525 14% 52% Median
526 5% 38%  
527 5% 32%  
528 2% 27%  
529 2% 25%  
530 4% 23%  
531 8% 20%  
532 1.0% 12%  
533 4% 11%  
534 2% 7%  
535 1.1% 5%  
536 0.4% 4%  
537 0.4% 3%  
538 0.5% 3%  
539 1.2% 2%  
540 0.2% 1.1%  
541 0.3% 0.9%  
542 0.3% 0.6%  
543 0.1% 0.3%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0.2% 99.7%  
440 0.1% 99.5%  
441 0.1% 99.5%  
442 0.4% 99.4%  
443 0.1% 99.0%  
444 1.1% 98.9%  
445 0.5% 98%  
446 0.4% 97%  
447 0.6% 97%  
448 2% 96%  
449 0.8% 95%  
450 4% 94%  
451 1.4% 90%  
452 0.9% 89%  
453 2% 88%  
454 4% 86%  
455 7% 82%  
456 12% 75%  
457 0.6% 63%  
458 3% 63%  
459 4% 59%  
460 2% 55%  
461 11% 53%  
462 14% 42% Median
463 4% 29%  
464 3% 25%  
465 0.9% 22%  
466 2% 21%  
467 5% 19%  
468 5% 15%  
469 1.0% 10%  
470 2% 9%  
471 0.8% 7%  
472 1.4% 7%  
473 1.3% 5%  
474 1.2% 4%  
475 0.6% 3%  
476 0.3% 2%  
477 0.2% 2%  
478 0.7% 2%  
479 0.5% 1.0%  
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0.2% 0.4%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0.1% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
434 0% 100%  
435 0.1% 99.9%  
436 0.9% 99.8%  
437 0.3% 98.9%  
438 0.8% 98.6%  
439 0.3% 98%  
440 0.4% 97%  
441 0.5% 97%  
442 2% 97%  
443 2% 95%  
444 0.7% 93%  
445 0.7% 93%  
446 0.7% 92%  
447 0.4% 91%  
448 0.5% 91%  
449 0.9% 90%  
450 2% 90%  
451 1.5% 88%  
452 2% 87%  
453 1.3% 84%  
454 0.7% 83%  
455 2% 82%  
456 2% 81%  
457 14% 78%  
458 18% 64%  
459 8% 46%  
460 12% 38% Median
461 3% 26%  
462 4% 24%  
463 4% 20%  
464 5% 16%  
465 6% 11%  
466 2% 5%  
467 0.5% 3%  
468 0.3% 2%  
469 0.3% 2%  
470 0.1% 2%  
471 0.2% 1.5%  
472 0.1% 1.3%  
473 0.3% 1.1%  
474 0.2% 0.8%  
475 0.2% 0.6%  
476 0.1% 0.5%  
477 0% 0.4%  
478 0% 0.4%  
479 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0.1% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.8%  
398 0.3% 99.6%  
399 0.3% 99.4%  
400 0.3% 99.1%  
401 0.3% 98.7%  
402 0.3% 98%  
403 0.8% 98%  
404 0.8% 97%  
405 0.7% 97%  
406 0.7% 96%  
407 0.5% 95%  
408 1.1% 95%  
409 2% 94%  
410 2% 91%  
411 1.1% 89%  
412 2% 88%  
413 2% 86%  
414 7% 85%  
415 6% 77%  
416 7% 72%  
417 14% 65%  
418 6% 51%  
419 2% 45%  
420 6% 43% Last Result, Median
421 10% 37%  
422 2% 27%  
423 6% 25%  
424 2% 19%  
425 1.2% 17%  
426 3% 16%  
427 3% 13%  
428 2% 10%  
429 2% 9%  
430 1.3% 6%  
431 1.2% 5%  
432 0.9% 4%  
433 0.7% 3%  
434 0.5% 2%  
435 0.7% 2%  
436 0.2% 1.0%  
437 0.2% 0.7%  
438 0.2% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0.2% 0.3%  
441 0.1% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.3% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.4%  
388 0.1% 99.3%  
389 0.2% 99.2%  
390 0.3% 98.9%  
391 2% 98.7%  
392 0.2% 96%  
393 0.5% 96%  
394 2% 96%  
395 3% 94%  
396 0.9% 91%  
397 1.1% 90%  
398 1.1% 89%  
399 1.2% 88%  
400 0.8% 87%  
401 15% 86%  
402 4% 71%  
403 5% 67%  
404 2% 62%  
405 2% 61%  
406 7% 59%  
407 13% 53% Median
408 6% 39%  
409 2% 33%  
410 3% 31%  
411 3% 28%  
412 6% 25%  
413 3% 19%  
414 2% 16%  
415 0.6% 14%  
416 4% 14%  
417 3% 10%  
418 2% 7%  
419 2% 5%  
420 0.5% 4%  
421 0.4% 3%  
422 0.2% 3%  
423 0.8% 3%  
424 0.8% 2%  
425 0.3% 1.0%  
426 0.1% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.2% 99.7%  
383 0.2% 99.5%  
384 0.3% 99.3%  
385 0.3% 98.9%  
386 0.6% 98.6%  
387 0.6% 98%  
388 0.5% 97%  
389 0.8% 97%  
390 1.1% 96%  
391 0.6% 95%  
392 1.4% 94%  
393 1.2% 93%  
394 2% 92%  
395 0.4% 90%  
396 1.4% 89%  
397 2% 88%  
398 0.9% 86%  
399 2% 85% Last Result
400 2% 83%  
401 1.3% 81%  
402 14% 80%  
403 15% 66%  
404 2% 51%  
405 8% 49% Median
406 5% 41%  
407 9% 36%  
408 3% 27%  
409 6% 24%  
410 2% 17%  
411 6% 16%  
412 1.2% 10%  
413 3% 9%  
414 1.2% 5%  
415 0.6% 4%  
416 0.6% 4%  
417 1.1% 3%  
418 0.4% 2%  
419 0.2% 2%  
420 0.3% 1.4%  
421 0.2% 1.1%  
422 0.1% 0.9%  
423 0.1% 0.8%  
424 0.2% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0.1% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
339 0% 100%  
340 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.2% 99.8%  
343 0.5% 99.6%  
344 0.2% 99.1%  
345 0.1% 98.9%  
346 0% 98.8%  
347 0.6% 98.7%  
348 1.1% 98%  
349 0.2% 97%  
350 0.1% 97%  
351 0.4% 97%  
352 0.4% 96%  
353 0.2% 96%  
354 0.2% 96%  
355 0.5% 95% Majority
356 0.7% 95%  
357 2% 94%  
358 0.9% 92%  
359 2% 91%  
360 3% 90%  
361 14% 87%  
362 13% 73%  
363 4% 61%  
364 4% 57%  
365 7% 52% Median
366 16% 46%  
367 2% 29%  
368 7% 27%  
369 4% 21%  
370 3% 16%  
371 2% 13%  
372 0.7% 11%  
373 2% 11%  
374 0.6% 9%  
375 0.4% 8%  
376 0.8% 8%  
377 0.6% 7%  
378 0.3% 6%  
379 0.6% 6%  
380 2% 6%  
381 1.3% 4%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.7% 1.2%  
386 0.2% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.1% 99.5%  
320 0.2% 99.4%  
321 0.5% 99.3%  
322 0.1% 98.8%  
323 0.4% 98.7%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 1.4% 97% Last Result
327 0.7% 96%  
328 1.3% 95%  
329 2% 94%  
330 0.6% 92%  
331 1.1% 92%  
332 2% 91%  
333 3% 89%  
334 1.1% 86%  
335 5% 85%  
336 5% 79%  
337 7% 74%  
338 2% 68%  
339 17% 65%  
340 11% 48%  
341 4% 37%  
342 3% 32% Median
343 3% 29%  
344 5% 26%  
345 5% 22%  
346 1.3% 17%  
347 2% 16%  
348 1.1% 13%  
349 1.2% 12%  
350 3% 11%  
351 2% 8%  
352 0.5% 6%  
353 2% 6%  
354 1.1% 4%  
355 0.2% 3% Majority
356 1.4% 3%  
357 0.4% 1.3%  
358 0.5% 1.0%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0.1% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.2% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.2% 99.6%  
272 0.2% 99.4%  
273 0.2% 99.3%  
274 0.7% 99.0%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.7% 98%  
277 0.9% 97%  
278 1.2% 96%  
279 1.3% 95%  
280 2% 94%  
281 2% 91%  
282 3% 90%  
283 3% 87%  
284 1.2% 84%  
285 2% 83%  
286 6% 81%  
287 2% 75%  
288 10% 73%  
289 6% 63% Last Result
290 2% 57% Median
291 6% 55%  
292 14% 49%  
293 7% 35%  
294 6% 28%  
295 7% 23%  
296 2% 15%  
297 2% 14%  
298 1.1% 12%  
299 2% 11%  
300 2% 9%  
301 1.1% 6%  
302 0.5% 5%  
303 0.7% 5%  
304 0.7% 4%  
305 0.8% 3%  
306 0.8% 3%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.3%  
310 0.3% 0.9%  
311 0.3% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.4% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0.1% 99.3%  
272 0.2% 99.2%  
273 0.6% 99.0%  
274 0.3% 98%  
275 0.1% 98%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.9% 97%  
278 2% 97%  
279 1.5% 95%  
280 3% 94%  
281 1.4% 91%  
282 2% 89%  
283 2% 87%  
284 2% 85%  
285 0.8% 83%  
286 2% 82%  
287 4% 79%  
288 5% 75%  
289 11% 70%  
290 1.3% 59%  
291 7% 57%  
292 3% 51%  
293 4% 48% Median
294 6% 44%  
295 3% 38%  
296 13% 36%  
297 4% 22%  
298 3% 18%  
299 2% 15%  
300 5% 13% Last Result
301 1.1% 8%  
302 2% 7%  
303 0.4% 5%  
304 2% 5%  
305 0.9% 3%  
306 0.7% 2%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.3% 1.4%  
309 0.4% 1.2%  
310 0.1% 0.8%  
311 0.2% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.5%  
313 0.3% 0.4%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.2% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.6%  
219 0.1% 99.6%  
220 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
221 0.9% 99.2%  
222 0.3% 98%  
223 0.8% 98%  
224 0.8% 97%  
225 0.5% 96%  
226 1.5% 96%  
227 2% 94%  
228 4% 93%  
229 0.8% 89%  
230 0.9% 88%  
231 2% 87%  
232 8% 85%  
233 1.3% 77%  
234 12% 76%  
235 1.3% 64%  
236 3% 63%  
237 3% 60%  
238 4% 57% Median
239 10% 53%  
240 1.4% 43%  
241 16% 41%  
242 1.4% 26%  
243 5% 24%  
244 4% 20%  
245 6% 16%  
246 1.0% 10%  
247 1.3% 9%  
248 0.8% 8%  
249 1.3% 7%  
250 2% 6%  
251 1.2% 4%  
252 1.1% 3%  
253 0.6% 2%  
254 0.2% 1.4%  
255 0.4% 1.2%  
256 0.2% 0.8%  
257 0.4% 0.6%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.2%  
156 1.1% 99.0%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 1.2% 97%  
159 1.2% 96%  
160 2% 95%  
161 1.4% 93%  
162 2% 91%  
163 2% 89%  
164 2% 87%  
165 5% 84%  
166 2% 79%  
167 5% 78%  
168 3% 73%  
169 17% 71%  
170 6% 53% Median
171 3% 47%  
172 12% 44%  
173 4% 32%  
174 6% 28%  
175 2% 22%  
176 8% 20%  
177 1.4% 12%  
178 2% 10%  
179 0.9% 8%  
180 2% 7%  
181 1.2% 6%  
182 0.7% 5%  
183 0.9% 4%  
184 0.9% 3%  
185 1.1% 2%  
186 0.3% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.6%  
188 0.2% 0.4%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.9% 98.9%  
156 0.5% 98%  
157 0.7% 97%  
158 2% 97%  
159 2% 95%  
160 1.1% 92%  
161 1.3% 91%  
162 1.1% 90%  
163 1.2% 89%  
164 3% 88%  
165 2% 85%  
166 2% 83%  
167 6% 82%  
168 6% 76%  
169 0.9% 70%  
170 3% 69%  
171 3% 65%  
172 3% 62%  
173 22% 59% Median
174 5% 36%  
175 5% 31%  
176 9% 26%  
177 4% 17%  
178 3% 13%  
179 3% 10%  
180 3% 7%  
181 0.7% 5%  
182 1.2% 4%  
183 1.2% 3%  
184 0.5% 1.5%  
185 0.3% 1.0%  
186 0.1% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations