Opinion Poll by YouGov, 23–27 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.6–31.6% 28.2–32.0% 27.9–32.3% 27.2–33.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.6% 9.1–13.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.8–8.2% 5.4–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 232 218–244 214–249 212–252 204–260
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 114–134 110–138 109–140 105–144
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 124 115–134 113–136 109–140 105–144
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 76–95 75–96 73–97 71–101
Die Linke 69 71 63–77 60–79 58–82 56–85
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 48–61 46–62 44–64 42–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 0 0–44 0–45 0–46 0–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0.1% 100% Last Result
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.5% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.4%  
206 0.1% 99.3%  
207 0% 99.2%  
208 0.3% 99.2%  
209 0.3% 98.9%  
210 0.4% 98.6%  
211 0.1% 98%  
212 0.7% 98%  
213 2% 97%  
214 2% 95%  
215 0.3% 94%  
216 0.7% 93%  
217 2% 93%  
218 3% 91%  
219 0.6% 87%  
220 0.8% 87%  
221 4% 86%  
222 3% 82%  
223 0.5% 79%  
224 3% 79%  
225 2% 76%  
226 4% 74%  
227 3% 70%  
228 3% 66%  
229 3% 63%  
230 4% 61%  
231 2% 57%  
232 7% 55% Median
233 5% 48%  
234 5% 43%  
235 1.1% 38%  
236 8% 37%  
237 0.6% 29%  
238 4% 28%  
239 3% 24%  
240 0.5% 21%  
241 2% 21%  
242 3% 19%  
243 0.5% 15%  
244 6% 15%  
245 1.0% 9%  
246 0.6% 8%  
247 0.8% 8%  
248 1.4% 7%  
249 0.8% 5%  
250 0.6% 5%  
251 0.8% 4%  
252 0.7% 3%  
253 0.3% 2%  
254 0.5% 2%  
255 0.1% 2%  
256 0.3% 2%  
257 0.2% 1.2%  
258 0.1% 1.0%  
259 0.3% 0.9%  
260 0.3% 0.6%  
261 0% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0.1% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0.1% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.6% 99.4%  
107 0.2% 98.7%  
108 1.0% 98.6%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 3% 97%  
111 0.5% 94%  
112 1.3% 94%  
113 2% 93%  
114 1.4% 91%  
115 2% 89%  
116 2% 87%  
117 8% 85%  
118 2% 78%  
119 4% 76%  
120 5% 72%  
121 4% 68%  
122 7% 63%  
123 8% 56% Median
124 3% 48%  
125 4% 45%  
126 5% 41%  
127 10% 35%  
128 2% 26%  
129 3% 24%  
130 2% 21%  
131 2% 19%  
132 1.0% 17%  
133 3% 16%  
134 5% 13%  
135 1.2% 8%  
136 0.8% 7%  
137 0.5% 6%  
138 2% 5%  
139 0.5% 3%  
140 0.8% 3%  
141 0.3% 2%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.1% 1.0%  
144 0.4% 0.8%  
145 0.1% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.9%  
105 0.6% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.0%  
107 0.3% 98.6%  
108 0.4% 98%  
109 0.7% 98%  
110 0.1% 97%  
111 1.1% 97%  
112 0.6% 96%  
113 2% 95%  
114 0.3% 93%  
115 3% 93%  
116 10% 90%  
117 0.8% 79%  
118 4% 78%  
119 3% 74%  
120 5% 71%  
121 2% 66%  
122 0.9% 64%  
123 5% 63%  
124 20% 58% Median
125 3% 38%  
126 4% 35%  
127 2% 31%  
128 4% 29%  
129 2% 25%  
130 1.4% 24%  
131 0.8% 22%  
132 9% 21%  
133 3% 13%  
134 0.2% 10%  
135 3% 10%  
136 2% 7%  
137 1.5% 5%  
138 0.3% 3%  
139 0.3% 3%  
140 0.3% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0% 2%  
143 0.2% 2%  
144 1.2% 2%  
145 0.2% 0.4%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.8%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 1.0% 99.2%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 0.7% 95%  
76 7% 94%  
77 4% 88%  
78 4% 84%  
79 6% 80%  
80 5% 74%  
81 5% 69%  
82 6% 64%  
83 6% 58%  
84 2% 52%  
85 7% 50% Median
86 3% 43%  
87 2% 41%  
88 4% 38%  
89 1.3% 34%  
90 3% 33%  
91 3% 29%  
92 6% 26%  
93 3% 21%  
94 3% 18% Last Result
95 8% 15%  
96 3% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.4% 1.4%  
100 0.3% 1.0%  
101 0.3% 0.7%  
102 0.1% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.3%  
58 2% 98.7%  
59 0.7% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 0.1% 90%  
63 4% 90%  
64 4% 86%  
65 1.0% 82%  
66 3% 81%  
67 10% 78%  
68 12% 68%  
69 0.3% 56% Last Result
70 5% 55%  
71 20% 51% Median
72 2% 30%  
73 1.4% 29%  
74 10% 27%  
75 4% 17%  
76 1.3% 13%  
77 2% 12%  
78 2% 10%  
79 4% 8%  
80 0.1% 4%  
81 1.2% 4%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 0.1% 1.4%  
84 0% 1.3%  
85 0.7% 1.2%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.7%  
42 0.3% 99.6%  
43 0.6% 99.3%  
44 1.2% 98.7%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 96% Last Result
47 3% 93%  
48 4% 90%  
49 3% 86%  
50 10% 83%  
51 9% 73%  
52 3% 65%  
53 8% 62%  
54 5% 54% Median
55 9% 48%  
56 15% 39%  
57 5% 24%  
58 3% 19%  
59 2% 16%  
60 2% 14%  
61 5% 12%  
62 3% 7%  
63 1.1% 4%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 1.1% 1.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 0% 50%  
8 0% 50%  
9 0% 50%  
10 0% 50%  
11 0% 50%  
12 0% 50%  
13 0% 50%  
14 0% 50%  
15 0% 50%  
16 0% 50%  
17 0% 50%  
18 0% 50%  
19 0% 50%  
20 0% 50%  
21 0% 50%  
22 0% 50%  
23 0% 50%  
24 0% 50%  
25 0% 50%  
26 0% 50%  
27 0% 50%  
28 0% 50%  
29 0% 50%  
30 0% 50%  
31 0% 50%  
32 0% 50%  
33 0% 50%  
34 0% 50%  
35 0% 50%  
36 0% 50%  
37 0% 50%  
38 10% 50%  
39 5% 40%  
40 9% 35%  
41 4% 26%  
42 6% 21%  
43 5% 16%  
44 5% 11%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 5%  
47 0.5% 2%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 533 100% 512–555 509–559 506–563 498–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 431 100% 413–446 411–450 408–454 400–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 431 100% 416–445 411–448 409–451 401–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 409 100% 389–427 387–434 384–435 378–442
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 410 100% 391–429 387–432 384–434 376–442
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 390 100% 372–409 369–414 366–416 360–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 372 85% 351–389 347–392 346–397 340–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 319 0% 300–337 295–340 293–343 286–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 307 0% 287–326 283–331 280–333 275–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 267 0% 248–290 244–294 242–296 235–301
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 248 0% 233–262 228–266 226–271 221–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 194 0% 179–208 177–213 175–215 170–220
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 144 0% 122–167 119–171 117–172 112–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.9%  
496 0.2% 99.9%  
497 0% 99.7%  
498 0.2% 99.7%  
499 0.1% 99.5%  
500 0.1% 99.4%  
501 0.4% 99.3%  
502 0.1% 98.9%  
503 0.3% 98.8%  
504 0.2% 98.5%  
505 0.5% 98%  
506 0.8% 98%  
507 0.4% 97%  
508 1.4% 97%  
509 1.1% 95%  
510 0.8% 94%  
511 2% 93%  
512 3% 91%  
513 3% 89%  
514 2% 85%  
515 0.5% 84%  
516 2% 83%  
517 2% 81%  
518 2% 80%  
519 7% 78%  
520 1.0% 71%  
521 3% 70%  
522 6% 67%  
523 1.3% 61%  
524 0.7% 60%  
525 2% 59%  
526 1.3% 58%  
527 1.3% 56%  
528 2% 55%  
529 0.3% 53%  
530 0.9% 53%  
531 0.3% 52%  
532 1.1% 51%  
533 0.5% 50% Median
534 0.3% 50%  
535 0.4% 50%  
536 0.5% 49%  
537 0.4% 49%  
538 0.6% 48%  
539 0.8% 48%  
540 2% 47%  
541 0.4% 45%  
542 1.3% 45%  
543 7% 43%  
544 2% 36%  
545 5% 34%  
546 0.7% 28%  
547 2% 28%  
548 2% 26%  
549 6% 24%  
550 2% 18%  
551 1.0% 16%  
552 0.7% 15%  
553 1.4% 15%  
554 2% 13%  
555 3% 12%  
556 0.7% 8%  
557 1.0% 8%  
558 1.2% 7%  
559 1.0% 5%  
560 0.9% 4%  
561 0.6% 4%  
562 0.2% 3%  
563 0.5% 3%  
564 0.1% 2%  
565 0.2% 2%  
566 1.3% 2%  
567 0.3% 0.6%  
568 0.1% 0.3%  
569 0% 0.2%  
570 0% 0.2%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0.1% 0.1%  
573 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.7%  
400 0.2% 99.7%  
401 0.1% 99.5%  
402 0% 99.3%  
403 0.3% 99.3%  
404 0.1% 99.0%  
405 1.0% 99.0%  
406 0.1% 98%  
407 0.2% 98%  
408 0.9% 98%  
409 0.6% 97%  
410 0.4% 96% Median
411 4% 96%  
412 2% 92%  
413 1.0% 90%  
414 1.2% 89%  
415 0.3% 88%  
416 9% 88%  
417 0.6% 79%  
418 0.9% 79%  
419 3% 78%  
420 3% 75%  
421 2% 72%  
422 1.1% 71%  
423 0.8% 70%  
424 1.3% 69%  
425 2% 68%  
426 1.3% 66%  
427 6% 65%  
428 0.9% 59%  
429 5% 58%  
430 1.1% 53%  
431 5% 52%  
432 4% 47%  
433 0.4% 43%  
434 3% 43%  
435 5% 40%  
436 2% 35%  
437 2% 32%  
438 2% 31%  
439 4% 29%  
440 1.2% 25%  
441 2% 24%  
442 5% 22%  
443 0.6% 17%  
444 0.8% 16%  
445 2% 15%  
446 3% 13%  
447 3% 10%  
448 0.4% 6%  
449 0.8% 6%  
450 0.7% 5%  
451 0.4% 5%  
452 0.3% 4%  
453 0.8% 4%  
454 0.7% 3%  
455 0.7% 2%  
456 0.2% 2%  
457 0.6% 2%  
458 0.3% 0.9%  
459 0% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.2% 0.4%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0.1% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.7%  
401 0.3% 99.7%  
402 0.2% 99.4%  
403 0.1% 99.2%  
404 0.1% 99.1%  
405 0.3% 99.0%  
406 0.2% 98.7%  
407 0.3% 98.6%  
408 0.3% 98%  
409 1.0% 98% Median
410 1.1% 97%  
411 1.3% 96%  
412 0.2% 94%  
413 0.9% 94%  
414 0.2% 93%  
415 1.4% 93%  
416 2% 92%  
417 7% 90%  
418 0.8% 83%  
419 8% 82%  
420 4% 74%  
421 6% 71%  
422 1.1% 64%  
423 1.1% 63%  
424 1.3% 62%  
425 2% 61%  
426 2% 59%  
427 1.4% 57%  
428 2% 55%  
429 1.2% 53%  
430 1.2% 52%  
431 4% 51%  
432 1.0% 46%  
433 1.0% 45%  
434 3% 44%  
435 3% 42%  
436 2% 38%  
437 3% 37%  
438 4% 33%  
439 0.6% 29%  
440 3% 28%  
441 5% 25%  
442 3% 20%  
443 4% 17%  
444 1.1% 13%  
445 2% 12%  
446 3% 10%  
447 0.6% 6%  
448 0.9% 6%  
449 0.5% 5%  
450 1.4% 4%  
451 0.7% 3%  
452 0.2% 2%  
453 0.5% 2%  
454 0.6% 2%  
455 0.1% 1.1%  
456 0.1% 1.0%  
457 0.1% 0.9%  
458 0.4% 0.9%  
459 0.1% 0.4%  
460 0% 0.3%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0% 99.7%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.1% 99.6%  
378 0.2% 99.6%  
379 0.1% 99.3%  
380 0.2% 99.3%  
381 0.1% 99.1%  
382 1.1% 99.0%  
383 0.3% 98%  
384 0.6% 98%  
385 0.3% 97%  
386 2% 97%  
387 2% 95%  
388 1.3% 94%  
389 3% 92%  
390 1.0% 90%  
391 0.4% 89%  
392 0.6% 88%  
393 4% 88%  
394 2% 84%  
395 3% 81%  
396 2% 79%  
397 0.5% 77%  
398 1.4% 76%  
399 0.9% 75% Last Result
400 2% 74%  
401 1.2% 72%  
402 3% 71%  
403 4% 68%  
404 2% 64%  
405 5% 62%  
406 3% 57%  
407 1.0% 54%  
408 1.5% 53%  
409 2% 51% Median
410 2% 50%  
411 2% 48%  
412 0.4% 46%  
413 1.1% 46%  
414 0.2% 45%  
415 1.5% 44%  
416 2% 43%  
417 7% 41%  
418 0.8% 34%  
419 8% 33%  
420 3% 25%  
421 6% 22%  
422 0.9% 16%  
423 0.7% 15%  
424 1.0% 15%  
425 2% 14%  
426 2% 12%  
427 0.2% 10%  
428 0.7% 10%  
429 0.9% 9%  
430 0.7% 8%  
431 0.6% 8%  
432 0.8% 7%  
433 0.4% 6%  
434 2% 6%  
435 2% 4%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.2% 1.4%  
440 0.4% 1.2%  
441 0.3% 0.8%  
442 0.2% 0.5%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.2% 99.7%  
377 0% 99.5%  
378 0.3% 99.4%  
379 0.3% 99.1%  
380 0.1% 98.8%  
381 0.5% 98.7%  
382 0.2% 98%  
383 0.3% 98%  
384 0.5% 98%  
385 0.7% 97%  
386 0.3% 97%  
387 2% 96%  
388 0.4% 94%  
389 2% 94%  
390 1.3% 92%  
391 0.8% 90%  
392 3% 89%  
393 2% 86%  
394 2% 85%  
395 0.8% 82%  
396 3% 82%  
397 2% 79%  
398 1.1% 77%  
399 5% 76%  
400 2% 71%  
401 0.6% 70%  
402 6% 69%  
403 0.5% 63%  
404 3% 63%  
405 3% 60%  
406 0.9% 57%  
407 0.5% 56%  
408 1.3% 55%  
409 3% 54%  
410 1.0% 51% Median
411 4% 50%  
412 2% 46%  
413 1.2% 44%  
414 2% 43%  
415 0.6% 40%  
416 8% 40%  
417 1.3% 31%  
418 1.0% 30%  
419 2% 29%  
420 3% 27%  
421 1.3% 24%  
422 1.0% 23%  
423 0.7% 22%  
424 1.0% 21%  
425 1.3% 20%  
426 1.0% 19%  
427 5% 18%  
428 0.5% 12%  
429 4% 12%  
430 0.1% 7%  
431 1.3% 7%  
432 2% 6%  
433 0.3% 4%  
434 1.5% 4%  
435 0.3% 2%  
436 0.9% 2%  
437 0.1% 1.3%  
438 0.1% 1.1%  
439 0.2% 1.0%  
440 0.1% 0.8%  
441 0% 0.7%  
442 0.2% 0.7%  
443 0.1% 0.5%  
444 0% 0.4%  
445 0.2% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.5% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.4%  
362 0.3% 99.4%  
363 0.2% 99.1%  
364 0.1% 98.8%  
365 0.4% 98.7%  
366 1.0% 98%  
367 0% 97%  
368 0.6% 97%  
369 2% 97%  
370 0.8% 95%  
371 0.3% 94% Median
372 4% 94%  
373 0.2% 90%  
374 0.9% 89%  
375 1.1% 88%  
376 0.3% 87%  
377 6% 87%  
378 0.4% 81%  
379 2% 81%  
380 2% 79%  
381 0.7% 77%  
382 0.5% 76%  
383 0.5% 76%  
384 3% 75%  
385 0.4% 72%  
386 0.8% 72%  
387 14% 71%  
388 0.3% 57%  
389 3% 57%  
390 5% 54%  
391 3% 49%  
392 1.5% 46%  
393 1.0% 45%  
394 1.1% 44%  
395 1.1% 42%  
396 1.5% 41%  
397 4% 40%  
398 2% 36%  
399 10% 34%  
400 0.8% 25%  
401 2% 24%  
402 4% 22%  
403 2% 18%  
404 0.7% 16%  
405 2% 16%  
406 0.4% 14%  
407 0.9% 14%  
408 2% 13%  
409 1.5% 11%  
410 0.2% 10%  
411 3% 9%  
412 0.2% 6%  
413 0.3% 6%  
414 1.0% 6%  
415 0.4% 5%  
416 3% 5%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.1% 1.4%  
420 0.2% 1.3% Last Result
421 0.3% 1.1%  
422 0.1% 0.8%  
423 0.5% 0.8%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0.1% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.2% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.6%  
339 0% 99.6%  
340 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
341 0.6% 99.5%  
342 0.3% 98.8%  
343 0.2% 98.5%  
344 0.1% 98%  
345 0% 98%  
346 0.9% 98%  
347 3% 97%  
348 0.3% 94%  
349 0.6% 94%  
350 2% 93%  
351 3% 91%  
352 2% 88%  
353 0.4% 86%  
354 1.1% 86%  
355 3% 85% Majority
356 4% 82%  
357 0.8% 78%  
358 0.3% 77%  
359 4% 77%  
360 2% 73%  
361 1.4% 71%  
362 1.3% 69%  
363 2% 68%  
364 4% 66%  
365 0.9% 62%  
366 2% 61%  
367 1.3% 59%  
368 0.8% 58%  
369 3% 57%  
370 2% 54%  
371 0.6% 52% Median
372 6% 52%  
373 2% 46%  
374 2% 44%  
375 1.3% 43%  
376 0.3% 41%  
377 6% 41%  
378 3% 35%  
379 2% 32%  
380 2% 31%  
381 0.7% 29%  
382 1.1% 28%  
383 0.5% 27%  
384 2% 26%  
385 0.3% 24%  
386 0.2% 24%  
387 13% 24%  
388 0.3% 10%  
389 0.5% 10%  
390 4% 9%  
391 0.1% 6%  
392 0.9% 6%  
393 0.2% 5%  
394 0.7% 5%  
395 0.3% 4%  
396 0.5% 4%  
397 1.0% 3%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 1.0% 2%  
400 0% 0.9%  
401 0.1% 0.8%  
402 0.3% 0.7%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.2% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.5% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.2%  
288 0.3% 99.2%  
289 0.2% 98.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 98.7%  
291 0.2% 98.6%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 3% 98%  
294 0.4% 95%  
295 1.0% 95%  
296 0.3% 94%  
297 0.2% 94%  
298 3% 94%  
299 0.2% 91%  
300 1.5% 90%  
301 2% 89%  
302 0.9% 87%  
303 0.4% 86%  
304 2% 86%  
305 0.7% 84%  
306 2% 84%  
307 4% 82%  
308 2% 78%  
309 0.8% 76%  
310 10% 75%  
311 2% 66%  
312 4% 64%  
313 1.5% 60%  
314 1.1% 59%  
315 1.1% 58%  
316 1.0% 56%  
317 1.5% 55%  
318 3% 54% Median
319 5% 51%  
320 3% 46%  
321 0.3% 43%  
322 14% 43%  
323 0.8% 29%  
324 0.4% 28%  
325 3% 28%  
326 0.5% 25%  
327 0.5% 24%  
328 0.7% 24%  
329 2% 23%  
330 2% 21%  
331 0.4% 19%  
332 6% 19%  
333 0.3% 13%  
334 1.1% 13%  
335 0.9% 12%  
336 0.2% 11%  
337 4% 10%  
338 0.3% 6%  
339 0.8% 6%  
340 2% 5%  
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0% 3%  
343 1.0% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.1% 1.3%  
346 0.2% 1.2%  
347 0.3% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0.5% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.2% 99.6%  
276 0.4% 99.4%  
277 0.3% 99.0%  
278 0.7% 98.8%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.5% 98%  
281 0.5% 97%  
282 0.8% 97%  
283 1.0% 96%  
284 1.4% 95%  
285 1.3% 94%  
286 0.6% 92% Median
287 4% 92%  
288 2% 88%  
289 1.0% 86%  
290 0.5% 85%  
291 0.9% 84%  
292 7% 83%  
293 1.2% 76%  
294 3% 75%  
295 5% 72%  
296 3% 66%  
297 1.2% 64%  
298 2% 63%  
299 2% 61%  
300 3% 59%  
301 1.1% 56%  
302 2% 55%  
303 0.2% 54%  
304 2% 54%  
305 0.8% 52%  
306 0.5% 51%  
307 1.3% 51%  
308 3% 49%  
309 2% 47%  
310 0.9% 45%  
311 2% 44%  
312 3% 42%  
313 0.9% 40%  
314 4% 39%  
315 0.7% 35%  
316 0.3% 34%  
317 6% 34%  
318 2% 28%  
319 2% 27%  
320 4% 25%  
321 3% 21%  
322 1.3% 18%  
323 3% 17%  
324 0.5% 13%  
325 0.5% 13%  
326 3% 12% Last Result
327 0.8% 9%  
328 0.6% 8%  
329 0.7% 8%  
330 0.1% 7%  
331 4% 7%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.3% 3%  
334 0.9% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.2% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0.3% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.3% 99.7%  
236 0.4% 99.4%  
237 0% 99.0%  
238 0.2% 99.0%  
239 0.4% 98.8%  
240 0.3% 98%  
241 0.1% 98%  
242 1.3% 98%  
243 0.6% 97%  
244 3% 96%  
245 0.2% 93%  
246 0.7% 93%  
247 0.9% 92% Median
248 2% 92%  
249 0.6% 90%  
250 1.0% 89%  
251 7% 88%  
252 0.4% 81%  
253 0.5% 80%  
254 6% 80%  
255 2% 74%  
256 0.3% 72%  
257 2% 72%  
258 5% 70%  
259 2% 65%  
260 0.5% 63%  
261 3% 62%  
262 1.5% 59%  
263 0.9% 58%  
264 3% 57%  
265 0.3% 54%  
266 3% 53%  
267 0.7% 50%  
268 0.9% 49%  
269 1.2% 49%  
270 0.7% 47%  
271 4% 47%  
272 0.6% 43%  
273 0.9% 42%  
274 1.3% 41%  
275 3% 40%  
276 1.4% 37%  
277 1.0% 35%  
278 0.3% 34%  
279 4% 34%  
280 0.7% 30%  
281 1.0% 29%  
282 5% 28%  
283 1.2% 23%  
284 2% 22%  
285 2% 21%  
286 2% 19%  
287 3% 16%  
288 3% 13%  
289 0.8% 11%  
290 2% 10%  
291 0.4% 8%  
292 3% 8%  
293 0.1% 5%  
294 2% 5%  
295 0.1% 3%  
296 0.8% 3%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0.2% 2%  
299 0.3% 1.4%  
300 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
301 0.2% 0.7%  
302 0.1% 0.5%  
303 0.2% 0.4%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0.1% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.2% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
221 0.2% 99.5%  
222 0.3% 99.3%  
223 0.1% 99.1%  
224 0.4% 99.0%  
225 0.5% 98.6%  
226 2% 98%  
227 0.5% 96%  
228 0.7% 95%  
229 1.2% 95%  
230 0.3% 93%  
231 0.5% 93%  
232 0.6% 93%  
233 4% 92%  
234 1.2% 88%  
235 1.2% 87%  
236 2% 86%  
237 2% 84%  
238 0.8% 82%  
239 6% 81%  
240 2% 75%  
241 2% 73%  
242 3% 71%  
243 4% 68%  
244 5% 65%  
245 2% 60%  
246 5% 58%  
247 1.5% 53% Median
248 4% 51%  
249 2% 47%  
250 2% 46%  
251 9% 44%  
252 0.9% 36%  
253 1.4% 35%  
254 6% 33%  
255 3% 27%  
256 0.7% 24%  
257 2% 24%  
258 5% 21%  
259 3% 17%  
260 0.4% 14%  
261 3% 14%  
262 1.3% 10%  
263 1.0% 9%  
264 1.0% 8%  
265 0.3% 7%  
266 3% 7%  
267 0.2% 4%  
268 0.1% 4%  
269 1.1% 4%  
270 0.2% 3%  
271 0.9% 3%  
272 0.1% 2%  
273 0.3% 1.5%  
274 0.2% 1.2%  
275 0.2% 1.0%  
276 0.3% 0.8%  
277 0.3% 0.5%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0.1% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.6%  
170 0.6% 99.5%  
171 0.1% 98.9%  
172 0.8% 98.8%  
173 0.3% 98%  
174 0.1% 98%  
175 0.7% 98%  
176 1.1% 97%  
177 2% 96%  
178 3% 93%  
179 0.5% 90%  
180 0.5% 90%  
181 0.9% 89%  
182 0.7% 89%  
183 3% 88%  
184 5% 85%  
185 2% 81%  
186 2% 79%  
187 4% 77%  
188 2% 73%  
189 3% 71%  
190 6% 68%  
191 3% 62%  
192 3% 59%  
193 3% 56%  
194 6% 53% Median
195 3% 47%  
196 3% 44%  
197 7% 40%  
198 9% 33%  
199 2% 24%  
200 2% 22%  
201 3% 20%  
202 0.9% 17%  
203 2% 17%  
204 1.3% 15%  
205 1.3% 14%  
206 1.2% 13%  
207 1.0% 11%  
208 1.5% 10%  
209 0.6% 9%  
210 0.9% 8%  
211 0.2% 7%  
212 0.4% 7%  
213 3% 7%  
214 0.5% 3%  
215 0.9% 3%  
216 0.5% 2%  
217 0.2% 1.2%  
218 0.2% 1.0%  
219 0.1% 0.8%  
220 0.4% 0.6%  
221 0.1% 0.3%  
222 0% 0.2% Last Result
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.5%  
114 0.2% 99.4%  
115 0.3% 99.2%  
116 1.2% 98.9%  
117 0.3% 98%  
118 0.5% 97%  
119 2% 97%  
120 2% 95%  
121 0.8% 93%  
122 6% 92%  
123 0.7% 86% Median
124 0.6% 85%  
125 2% 85%  
126 5% 83%  
127 8% 77%  
128 1.4% 70%  
129 1.4% 69%  
130 2% 67%  
131 1.4% 66%  
132 0.9% 64%  
133 3% 63%  
134 5% 61%  
135 0.3% 56%  
136 0.7% 56%  
137 0.4% 55%  
138 2% 55%  
139 0.3% 53%  
140 0.8% 52%  
141 0.2% 52%  
142 1.0% 52%  
143 0.1% 51%  
144 0.6% 50%  
145 0.5% 50%  
146 0.6% 49%  
147 0.3% 49%  
148 2% 49%  
149 0.5% 46%  
150 0.2% 46%  
151 0.3% 45%  
152 1.4% 45%  
153 1.0% 44%  
154 2% 43%  
155 3% 41%  
156 0.6% 38%  
157 1.0% 37%  
158 2% 36%  
159 2% 34%  
160 2% 32%  
161 4% 30%  
162 3% 26%  
163 4% 22%  
164 4% 19%  
165 4% 15%  
166 0.7% 11%  
167 0.7% 11%  
168 2% 10%  
169 2% 8%  
170 0.7% 6%  
171 1.3% 5%  
172 2% 4%  
173 0.4% 2%  
174 0.1% 2%  
175 0.6% 2%  
176 0.2% 1.4%  
177 0.1% 1.2%  
178 0.1% 1.1%  
179 0.7% 1.0%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations