Opinion Poll by Kantar, 22–29 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.6–31.7% 28.1–32.1% 27.8–32.5% 27.0–33.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 9.9–14.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.1–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.4–8.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 227 215–238 211–243 209–246 203–253
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 104–123 102–125 100–128 96–133
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 113 104–122 102–125 99–128 95–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 82–99 80–102 78–104 75–108
Die Linke 69 68 61–76 59–78 58–80 54–84
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 46–59 45–61 43–63 40–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 40–52 39–54 0–55 0–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.6%  
204 0.1% 99.5%  
205 0.2% 99.3%  
206 0.3% 99.1%  
207 0.2% 98.8%  
208 0.8% 98.6%  
209 0.9% 98%  
210 1.0% 97%  
211 1.4% 96%  
212 1.1% 95%  
213 1.3% 93%  
214 1.0% 92%  
215 2% 91%  
216 2% 89%  
217 2% 87%  
218 4% 85%  
219 4% 81%  
220 3% 77%  
221 3% 74%  
222 3% 71%  
223 3% 67%  
224 3% 64%  
225 5% 61%  
226 6% 56%  
227 5% 51% Median
228 6% 46%  
229 5% 40%  
230 2% 35%  
231 3% 32%  
232 3% 30%  
233 3% 27%  
234 3% 24%  
235 5% 21%  
236 3% 16%  
237 2% 14%  
238 2% 11%  
239 1.1% 10%  
240 1.1% 9%  
241 1.0% 8%  
242 1.5% 7%  
243 0.8% 5%  
244 0.9% 4%  
245 0.8% 3%  
246 0.5% 3%  
247 0.2% 2%  
248 0.3% 2%  
249 0.3% 2%  
250 0.2% 1.3%  
251 0.3% 1.1%  
252 0.3% 0.8%  
253 0.2% 0.5%  
254 0.1% 0.4%  
255 0.1% 0.3%  
256 0.1% 0.3%  
257 0% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.4% 99.5%  
97 0.4% 99.1%  
98 0.5% 98.8%  
99 0.6% 98%  
100 0.8% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 3% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 2% 91%  
105 3% 88%  
106 3% 85%  
107 4% 83%  
108 5% 78%  
109 6% 74%  
110 6% 68%  
111 4% 61%  
112 4% 57%  
113 4% 53% Median
114 5% 48%  
115 6% 43%  
116 6% 37%  
117 6% 31%  
118 4% 25%  
119 3% 21%  
120 3% 18%  
121 3% 15%  
122 2% 12%  
123 3% 11%  
124 2% 8%  
125 1.2% 6%  
126 1.0% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.1%  
132 0.2% 0.8%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.5%  
97 0.5% 99.3%  
98 0.4% 98.8%  
99 1.0% 98%  
100 1.0% 97%  
101 1.4% 96%  
102 2% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 4% 92%  
105 3% 88%  
106 4% 85%  
107 3% 81%  
108 5% 78%  
109 4% 73%  
110 6% 68%  
111 6% 62%  
112 5% 56%  
113 6% 52% Median
114 4% 46%  
115 6% 42%  
116 5% 36%  
117 4% 31%  
118 6% 27%  
119 3% 21%  
120 4% 18%  
121 2% 15%  
122 3% 13%  
123 2% 9%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.3% 6%  
126 0.8% 5%  
127 1.2% 4%  
128 0.3% 3%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.5%  
131 0.3% 1.1%  
132 0.1% 0.8%  
133 0.3% 0.7%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 0.6% 98.9%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 1.2% 97%  
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 95%  
82 2% 92%  
83 4% 90%  
84 3% 86%  
85 4% 83%  
86 5% 79%  
87 5% 73%  
88 6% 69%  
89 6% 62%  
90 7% 56% Median
91 5% 49%  
92 7% 45%  
93 5% 38%  
94 6% 32% Last Result
95 4% 27%  
96 4% 22%  
97 3% 18%  
98 3% 15%  
99 2% 12%  
100 2% 9%  
101 2% 7%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.0% 4%  
104 0.8% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.3%  
107 0.3% 1.0%  
108 0.2% 0.7%  
109 0.1% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.3% 99.4%  
56 0.6% 99.1%  
57 0.9% 98.5%  
58 1.4% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 92%  
62 5% 89%  
63 4% 84%  
64 6% 80%  
65 6% 74%  
66 5% 68%  
67 7% 63%  
68 9% 56% Median
69 6% 47% Last Result
70 5% 41%  
71 7% 36%  
72 5% 29%  
73 6% 23%  
74 4% 18%  
75 3% 14%  
76 3% 11%  
77 2% 8%  
78 1.4% 6%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.8% 99.1%  
43 1.4% 98%  
44 1.5% 97%  
45 2% 95%  
46 4% 93% Last Result
47 5% 89%  
48 6% 84%  
49 7% 79%  
50 6% 72%  
51 7% 65%  
52 11% 58% Median
53 6% 47%  
54 6% 41%  
55 7% 35%  
56 6% 28%  
57 5% 22%  
58 5% 17%  
59 3% 12%  
60 2% 9%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 0.9% 3%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 0.9% 97%  
39 4% 96%  
40 7% 91%  
41 4% 85%  
42 3% 81%  
43 11% 78%  
44 9% 67%  
45 4% 57%  
46 6% 53% Median
47 13% 47%  
48 9% 34%  
49 3% 25%  
50 4% 22%  
51 7% 18%  
52 3% 11%  
53 1.4% 7%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.3% 1.4%  
58 0.4% 1.1%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 505 100% 493–517 490–522 487–537 482–551
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 437 100% 426–448 420–454 417–456 408–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 437 100% 424–449 420–453 417–456 408–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 415 100% 402–427 397–431 393–433 383–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 392 100% 380–405 376–410 373–416 367–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 391 100% 379–405 376–410 373–416 366–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 369 94% 357–383 354–387 351–393 345–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 324 0.1% 311–337 306–340 301–343 288–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 294 0% 282–307 278–312 276–316 270–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 271 0% 258–283 253–287 247–290 233–296
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 226 0% 214–238 211–242 209–246 203–254
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 182 0% 170–193 167–196 165–199 160–206
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 147–169 143–172 126–175 113–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 99.9%  
477 0% 99.9%  
478 0% 99.9%  
479 0.1% 99.8%  
480 0.1% 99.8%  
481 0.1% 99.6%  
482 0.1% 99.5%  
483 0.3% 99.4%  
484 0.4% 99.1%  
485 0.3% 98.7%  
486 0.4% 98%  
487 0.6% 98%  
488 0.7% 97%  
489 1.1% 97%  
490 1.2% 96%  
491 1.4% 94%  
492 1.4% 93%  
493 2% 92%  
494 2% 90%  
495 3% 88%  
496 3% 85%  
497 4% 82%  
498 2% 78%  
499 4% 76%  
500 5% 72%  
501 3% 67%  
502 6% 64%  
503 4% 58%  
504 4% 54%  
505 4% 50% Median
506 3% 46%  
507 5% 43%  
508 4% 37%  
509 5% 34%  
510 3% 29%  
511 2% 26%  
512 3% 24%  
513 3% 20%  
514 3% 17%  
515 2% 14%  
516 2% 12%  
517 2% 10%  
518 0.8% 9%  
519 2% 8%  
520 0.7% 7%  
521 0.6% 6%  
522 0.5% 5%  
523 0.4% 5%  
524 0.3% 4%  
525 0.2% 4%  
526 0.2% 4%  
527 0.2% 4%  
528 0.1% 3%  
529 0.1% 3%  
530 0.1% 3%  
531 0.1% 3%  
532 0.1% 3%  
533 0.1% 3%  
534 0.1% 3%  
535 0.1% 3%  
536 0.2% 3%  
537 0.1% 3%  
538 0.2% 2%  
539 0.2% 2%  
540 0.2% 2%  
541 0.1% 2%  
542 0.3% 2%  
543 0.1% 2%  
544 0.1% 1.5%  
545 0.2% 1.3%  
546 0.1% 1.2%  
547 0.1% 1.0%  
548 0.2% 0.9%  
549 0.2% 0.7%  
550 0% 0.6%  
551 0.1% 0.5%  
552 0% 0.4%  
553 0.1% 0.3%  
554 0.1% 0.3%  
555 0.1% 0.2%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.1% 99.6%  
408 0.1% 99.5%  
409 0.1% 99.4%  
410 0.1% 99.3%  
411 0.2% 99.2%  
412 0.2% 99.0%  
413 0.2% 98.9%  
414 0.2% 98.7%  
415 0.2% 98%  
416 0.3% 98%  
417 0.9% 98%  
418 0.8% 97%  
419 1.0% 96%  
420 1.1% 95%  
421 0.8% 94%  
422 0.7% 93%  
423 0.3% 93%  
424 0.7% 92%  
425 1.0% 92%  
426 2% 91%  
427 4% 89%  
428 6% 85%  
429 5% 79%  
430 3% 74%  
431 2% 71%  
432 1.0% 69%  
433 0.7% 68%  
434 1.1% 67%  
435 4% 66%  
436 6% 62%  
437 8% 56%  
438 8% 48% Median
439 6% 41%  
440 3% 35%  
441 2% 31%  
442 0.5% 29%  
443 0.7% 29%  
444 1.3% 28%  
445 4% 27%  
446 4% 23%  
447 6% 19%  
448 4% 14%  
449 2% 9%  
450 1.0% 7%  
451 0.3% 6%  
452 0.2% 6%  
453 0.2% 5%  
454 0.8% 5%  
455 1.0% 4%  
456 1.4% 3%  
457 0.7% 2%  
458 0.5% 1.3%  
459 0.2% 0.8%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0% 0.4%  
462 0% 0.4%  
463 0% 0.4%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.8%  
404 0% 99.8%  
405 0% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.1% 99.6%  
408 0.1% 99.5%  
409 0.1% 99.4%  
410 0.1% 99.3%  
411 0.2% 99.2%  
412 0.1% 99.0%  
413 0.4% 98.9%  
414 0.2% 98%  
415 0.3% 98%  
416 0.4% 98%  
417 0.3% 98%  
418 0.6% 97%  
419 0.7% 97%  
420 1.2% 96%  
421 0.9% 95%  
422 1.1% 94%  
423 1.2% 93%  
424 2% 91%  
425 2% 90%  
426 2% 88%  
427 2% 86%  
428 3% 84%  
429 2% 81%  
430 3% 78%  
431 3% 75%  
432 3% 72%  
433 4% 69%  
434 4% 65%  
435 4% 61%  
436 3% 57%  
437 4% 54%  
438 4% 49% Median
439 4% 45%  
440 4% 41%  
441 5% 37%  
442 4% 33%  
443 2% 28%  
444 4% 26%  
445 3% 22%  
446 2% 19%  
447 3% 16%  
448 2% 13%  
449 2% 12%  
450 1.5% 10%  
451 2% 8%  
452 1.1% 7%  
453 2% 5%  
454 0.4% 4%  
455 0.8% 3%  
456 0.5% 3%  
457 0.6% 2%  
458 0.4% 1.5%  
459 0.3% 1.1%  
460 0.1% 0.8%  
461 0.3% 0.7%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.8%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.1% 99.6%  
383 0.1% 99.5%  
384 0.1% 99.5%  
385 0.2% 99.4%  
386 0.1% 99.2%  
387 0.2% 99.1%  
388 0.2% 98.9%  
389 0.1% 98.7%  
390 0.2% 98.6%  
391 0.2% 98%  
392 0.3% 98%  
393 0.4% 98%  
394 0.5% 97%  
395 0.6% 97%  
396 0.6% 96%  
397 0.9% 96%  
398 0.8% 95%  
399 1.0% 94%  
400 2% 93%  
401 1.3% 92%  
402 1.3% 90%  
403 2% 89%  
404 2% 87%  
405 3% 86%  
406 3% 83%  
407 2% 80%  
408 3% 78%  
409 4% 74%  
410 4% 70%  
411 3% 66%  
412 5% 64%  
413 4% 59%  
414 4% 55%  
415 4% 51% Median
416 4% 48%  
417 4% 44%  
418 4% 40%  
419 4% 36%  
420 4% 32% Last Result
421 3% 28%  
422 4% 25%  
423 3% 22%  
424 2% 18%  
425 2% 16%  
426 3% 14%  
427 2% 11%  
428 1.4% 9%  
429 2% 8%  
430 1.0% 6%  
431 1.2% 5%  
432 0.6% 4%  
433 0.9% 3%  
434 0.6% 2%  
435 0.4% 2%  
436 0.4% 2%  
437 0.3% 1.1%  
438 0.2% 0.9%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0.4% 98.9%  
371 0.3% 98.5%  
372 0.5% 98%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 0.8% 97%  
375 0.9% 96%  
376 0.8% 95%  
377 1.1% 95%  
378 2% 93%  
379 2% 92%  
380 2% 90%  
381 2% 89%  
382 3% 87%  
383 3% 84%  
384 3% 81%  
385 4% 77%  
386 3% 73%  
387 3% 70%  
388 5% 67%  
389 4% 62%  
390 4% 58%  
391 3% 54%  
392 3% 50% Median
393 4% 47%  
394 3% 43%  
395 3% 40%  
396 3% 37%  
397 3% 33%  
398 4% 30%  
399 3% 26%  
400 3% 23%  
401 2% 20%  
402 3% 18%  
403 2% 15%  
404 1.4% 12%  
405 2% 11%  
406 1.2% 10%  
407 1.3% 8%  
408 1.0% 7%  
409 0.6% 6%  
410 0.6% 6%  
411 0.5% 5%  
412 0.6% 5%  
413 0.4% 4%  
414 0.4% 4%  
415 0.3% 3%  
416 0.3% 3%  
417 0.3% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.1% 2%  
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.1% 2%  
424 0.2% 1.4%  
425 0.2% 1.2%  
426 0.2% 0.9%  
427 0.1% 0.8%  
428 0.1% 0.7%  
429 0% 0.6%  
430 0% 0.6%  
431 0% 0.6%  
432 0% 0.6%  
433 0.2% 0.6%  
434 0.1% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.2% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.5%  
368 0.2% 99.3%  
369 0.1% 99.1%  
370 0.1% 99.0%  
371 0.5% 98.9%  
372 0.6% 98%  
373 1.3% 98%  
374 0.8% 97%  
375 0.4% 96%  
376 0.6% 95%  
377 0.9% 95%  
378 2% 94%  
379 3% 92%  
380 2% 89%  
381 1.2% 87%  
382 0.9% 85%  
383 2% 85%  
384 5% 83%  
385 5% 78%  
386 5% 73%  
387 2% 68%  
388 1.4% 66%  
389 2% 65%  
390 4% 63%  
391 9% 58%  
392 5% 50% Median
393 2% 45%  
394 2% 42%  
395 3% 41%  
396 5% 38%  
397 4% 33%  
398 6% 29%  
399 2% 23% Last Result
400 0.9% 21%  
401 1.0% 20%  
402 2% 19%  
403 3% 17%  
404 3% 14%  
405 1.1% 11%  
406 0.9% 10%  
407 0.5% 9%  
408 1.3% 8%  
409 1.4% 7%  
410 0.7% 5%  
411 0.7% 5%  
412 0.1% 4%  
413 0.4% 4%  
414 0.3% 3%  
415 0.4% 3%  
416 0.3% 3%  
417 0.1% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.3% 2%  
421 0.2% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.1% 1.3%  
424 0.1% 1.3%  
425 0.1% 1.2%  
426 0.1% 1.1%  
427 0.2% 1.0%  
428 0.1% 0.7%  
429 0.1% 0.7%  
430 0% 0.6%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0.1% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9% Last Result
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.6%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.2% 99.3%  
347 0.3% 99.2%  
348 0.4% 98.8%  
349 0.4% 98%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.7% 98%  
352 0.8% 97%  
353 1.1% 96%  
354 1.3% 95%  
355 1.0% 94% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 1.4% 91%  
358 2% 89%  
359 2% 87%  
360 3% 85%  
361 2% 82%  
362 4% 80%  
363 3% 76%  
364 3% 73%  
365 4% 70%  
366 3% 66%  
367 3% 62%  
368 4% 59%  
369 5% 55% Median
370 4% 49%  
371 3% 46%  
372 4% 42%  
373 4% 38%  
374 3% 35%  
375 4% 32%  
376 3% 27%  
377 3% 24%  
378 2% 21%  
379 3% 19%  
380 2% 17%  
381 2% 15%  
382 2% 13%  
383 2% 11%  
384 1.1% 10%  
385 1.3% 8%  
386 1.4% 7%  
387 0.9% 6%  
388 0.4% 5%  
389 0.5% 4%  
390 0.5% 4%  
391 0.4% 3%  
392 0.3% 3%  
393 0.2% 3%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.3% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.1% 2%  
399 0.2% 1.4%  
400 0.2% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 1.0%  
402 0.1% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.7%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.4%  
290 0.1% 99.2%  
291 0.1% 99.2%  
292 0.2% 99.0%  
293 0.1% 98.9%  
294 0.3% 98.8%  
295 0.1% 98.5%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.3% 97%  
303 0.5% 97%  
304 0.6% 96%  
305 0.5% 96%  
306 0.6% 95%  
307 0.7% 95%  
308 0.9% 94%  
309 1.3% 93%  
310 0.8% 92%  
311 1.2% 91%  
312 2% 90%  
313 2% 88%  
314 1.3% 85%  
315 2% 84%  
316 3% 82%  
317 3% 79%  
318 3% 75%  
319 4% 72%  
320 4% 68%  
321 4% 64%  
322 3% 61%  
323 4% 57%  
324 4% 53%  
325 3% 48% Median
326 4% 45% Last Result
327 3% 41%  
328 4% 38%  
329 3% 34%  
330 3% 30%  
331 4% 27%  
332 4% 23%  
333 2% 20%  
334 2% 18%  
335 3% 15%  
336 2% 12%  
337 2% 10%  
338 1.1% 8%  
339 2% 7%  
340 1.1% 6%  
341 0.6% 5%  
342 0.8% 4%  
343 0.8% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.4% 1.5%  
347 0.3% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.5%  
271 0.2% 99.4%  
272 0.3% 99.1%  
273 0.4% 98.9%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.6% 98%  
276 0.9% 98%  
277 0.6% 97%  
278 1.2% 96%  
279 1.0% 95%  
280 2% 94%  
281 1.4% 92%  
282 2% 91%  
283 3% 89%  
284 2% 86%  
285 2% 84%  
286 3% 82%  
287 4% 78%  
288 3% 75%  
289 4% 72% Last Result
290 4% 68%  
291 4% 64%  
292 4% 60%  
293 4% 56%  
294 4% 52% Median
295 4% 49%  
296 4% 45%  
297 5% 41%  
298 3% 36%  
299 4% 34%  
300 4% 30%  
301 3% 26%  
302 2% 22%  
303 3% 20%  
304 3% 17%  
305 2% 14%  
306 2% 13%  
307 1.3% 11%  
308 1.3% 10%  
309 2% 8%  
310 1.0% 7%  
311 0.8% 6%  
312 0.9% 5%  
313 0.6% 4%  
314 0.6% 4%  
315 0.5% 3%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 1.4%  
321 0.2% 1.3%  
322 0.2% 1.1%  
323 0.1% 0.9%  
324 0.2% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0% 99.6%  
233 0.1% 99.5%  
234 0.1% 99.4%  
235 0.1% 99.3%  
236 0.1% 99.2%  
237 0.1% 99.1%  
238 0.1% 99.1%  
239 0.1% 98.9%  
240 0.2% 98.8%  
241 0.2% 98.6%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0.2% 98%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.2% 98%  
248 0.4% 97%  
249 0.3% 97%  
250 0.4% 97%  
251 0.3% 96%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.5% 95%  
254 1.0% 95%  
255 0.9% 94%  
256 1.3% 93%  
257 1.1% 92%  
258 0.9% 91%  
259 2% 90%  
260 2% 88%  
261 2% 86%  
262 3% 84%  
263 3% 81%  
264 3% 78%  
265 3% 75%  
266 3% 72%  
267 4% 69%  
268 4% 65%  
269 3% 60%  
270 6% 57%  
271 3% 52%  
272 4% 49% Median
273 5% 45%  
274 4% 40%  
275 3% 36%  
276 4% 33%  
277 3% 28%  
278 3% 25%  
279 4% 22%  
280 2% 19%  
281 2% 17%  
282 3% 14%  
283 2% 12%  
284 2% 10%  
285 2% 8%  
286 0.9% 6%  
287 1.0% 6%  
288 1.0% 5%  
289 0.8% 3%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.5% 2%  
292 0.3% 2%  
293 0.2% 1.3%  
294 0.2% 1.0%  
295 0.3% 0.8%  
296 0.2% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2% Last Result
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.8%  
202 0.2% 99.7%  
203 0.1% 99.6%  
204 0.3% 99.4%  
205 0.2% 99.2%  
206 0.4% 99.0%  
207 0.5% 98.6%  
208 0.5% 98%  
209 1.2% 98%  
210 0.6% 96%  
211 1.1% 96%  
212 1.1% 95%  
213 2% 94%  
214 2% 92%  
215 3% 90%  
216 2% 87%  
217 3% 85%  
218 3% 83%  
219 4% 80%  
220 4% 76% Last Result
221 4% 72%  
222 3% 68%  
223 4% 65%  
224 5% 60%  
225 5% 55%  
226 4% 50% Median
227 4% 47%  
228 4% 43%  
229 4% 39%  
230 5% 35%  
231 3% 30%  
232 4% 27%  
233 2% 23%  
234 4% 21%  
235 2% 17%  
236 3% 15%  
237 2% 13%  
238 2% 11%  
239 1.3% 9%  
240 1.1% 8%  
241 1.0% 7%  
242 1.1% 6%  
243 0.7% 5%  
244 0.6% 4%  
245 0.6% 3%  
246 0.4% 3%  
247 0.5% 2%  
248 0.4% 2%  
249 0.2% 1.5%  
250 0.3% 1.3%  
251 0.1% 1.0%  
252 0.1% 0.9%  
253 0.1% 0.7%  
254 0.1% 0.6%  
255 0.1% 0.5%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0.3% 99.4%  
162 0.3% 99.1%  
163 0.3% 98.8%  
164 0.5% 98%  
165 0.6% 98%  
166 0.7% 97%  
167 2% 97%  
168 2% 95%  
169 1.3% 93%  
170 3% 92%  
171 2% 89%  
172 2% 87%  
173 4% 85%  
174 3% 81%  
175 2% 78%  
176 4% 76%  
177 4% 71%  
178 5% 68%  
179 6% 63%  
180 3% 57%  
181 4% 54% Median
182 7% 50%  
183 4% 43%  
184 3% 39%  
185 4% 36%  
186 4% 32%  
187 4% 28%  
188 5% 24%  
189 2% 19%  
190 3% 17%  
191 3% 14%  
192 1.2% 11%  
193 1.5% 10%  
194 2% 9%  
195 1.4% 7%  
196 0.7% 5%  
197 1.1% 5%  
198 0.7% 3%  
199 0.5% 3%  
200 0.4% 2%  
201 0.3% 2%  
202 0.3% 1.5%  
203 0.2% 1.2%  
204 0.2% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.7%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0% 0.2%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.2% 99.5%  
115 0.1% 99.3%  
116 0.1% 99.1%  
117 0.1% 99.0%  
118 0.1% 98.9%  
119 0.2% 98.7%  
120 0.1% 98.5%  
121 0.1% 98%  
122 0.2% 98%  
123 0.2% 98%  
124 0.2% 98%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.2% 97%  
128 0.2% 97%  
129 0.1% 97%  
130 0.1% 97%  
131 0% 97%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0.1% 96%  
138 0.2% 96%  
139 0.2% 96%  
140 0.3% 96%  
141 0.3% 96%  
142 0.3% 95%  
143 0.3% 95%  
144 0.7% 95%  
145 1.1% 94%  
146 1.1% 93%  
147 2% 92%  
148 3% 90%  
149 2% 87%  
150 3% 84%  
151 2% 81%  
152 3% 79%  
153 3% 76%  
154 3% 73%  
155 4% 70%  
156 5% 66%  
157 7% 61%  
158 5% 54%  
159 6% 49% Median
160 5% 43%  
161 4% 38%  
162 4% 34%  
163 2% 30%  
164 4% 28%  
165 4% 24%  
166 3% 20%  
167 3% 17%  
168 3% 14%  
169 2% 11%  
170 2% 8%  
171 1.1% 6%  
172 0.9% 5%  
173 0.7% 4%  
174 0.6% 3%  
175 0.6% 3%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.2%  
179 0.3% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations