Opinion Poll by Forsa, 27–30 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.4–32.5% 28.9–32.9% 28.6–33.3% 27.9–34.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.6% 8.1–12.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.4–8.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 235 223–247 220–251 217–255 212–263
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 130 120–139 117–142 115–145 111–150
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 107 98–116 96–118 94–122 90–127
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 69–84 67–86 65–88 62–93
Die Linke 69 61 55–69 53–71 51–72 49–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 55 48–61 47–64 45–65 42–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 40–52 38–54 0–56 0–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.2% 99.6%  
213 0.2% 99.4%  
214 0.3% 99.2%  
215 0.4% 98.9%  
216 0.5% 98.5%  
217 0.6% 98%  
218 0.9% 97%  
219 1.0% 97%  
220 1.1% 96%  
221 1.2% 94%  
222 2% 93%  
223 2% 91%  
224 2% 90%  
225 3% 88%  
226 3% 85%  
227 3% 82%  
228 3% 79%  
229 4% 76%  
230 4% 72%  
231 4% 69%  
232 4% 64%  
233 4% 61%  
234 6% 57%  
235 4% 51% Median
236 4% 47%  
237 4% 43%  
238 4% 39%  
239 4% 35%  
240 3% 30%  
241 4% 28%  
242 3% 24%  
243 3% 21%  
244 3% 18%  
245 2% 15%  
246 2% 13%  
247 2% 12%  
248 2% 10%  
249 1.3% 8%  
250 0.8% 7%  
251 1.3% 6%  
252 0.6% 5%  
253 0.8% 4%  
254 0.3% 3%  
255 0.6% 3%  
256 0.4% 2%  
257 0.3% 2%  
258 0.3% 1.4%  
259 0.1% 1.1%  
260 0.2% 1.0%  
261 0.2% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0.1% 0.5%  
264 0% 0.4%  
265 0.1% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0.1% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.4%  
113 0.4% 99.1%  
114 0.7% 98.7%  
115 0.8% 98%  
116 0.7% 97%  
117 2% 97%  
118 2% 95%  
119 2% 93%  
120 2% 91%  
121 3% 89%  
122 5% 86%  
123 3% 82%  
124 5% 79%  
125 4% 74%  
126 6% 71%  
127 5% 65%  
128 5% 60%  
129 4% 55%  
130 6% 50% Median
131 4% 44%  
132 5% 40%  
133 5% 35%  
134 4% 30%  
135 5% 26%  
136 2% 21%  
137 4% 19%  
138 3% 15%  
139 3% 12%  
140 2% 9%  
141 1.4% 7%  
142 1.3% 6%  
143 0.9% 5%  
144 1.0% 4%  
145 0.8% 3%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.4%  
148 0.3% 1.1%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 0.5% 99.1%  
93 0.8% 98.6%  
94 1.0% 98%  
95 1.0% 97%  
96 2% 96%  
97 3% 94%  
98 3% 91%  
99 2% 88%  
100 4% 86%  
101 6% 82%  
102 5% 76%  
103 3% 71%  
104 4% 68%  
105 8% 63%  
106 6% 56%  
107 4% 50% Median
108 4% 46%  
109 8% 42%  
110 5% 35%  
111 4% 30%  
112 3% 26%  
113 4% 23%  
114 6% 19%  
115 2% 14%  
116 2% 11%  
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 7%  
119 1.2% 5%  
120 0.5% 4%  
121 0.7% 3%  
122 0.7% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.2% 1.1%  
125 0.2% 0.9%  
126 0.1% 0.7%  
127 0.3% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 0.5% 99.3%  
64 0.8% 98.8%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 3% 91%  
70 4% 87%  
71 5% 83%  
72 5% 78%  
73 6% 73%  
74 6% 67%  
75 6% 61%  
76 7% 55% Median
77 6% 47%  
78 6% 42%  
79 6% 36%  
80 5% 30%  
81 5% 24%  
82 4% 19%  
83 3% 15%  
84 3% 12%  
85 2% 9%  
86 2% 7%  
87 1.4% 5%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 0.8% 99.1%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 1.4% 97%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 93%  
55 4% 90%  
56 4% 86%  
57 6% 82%  
58 5% 76%  
59 8% 71%  
60 6% 64%  
61 9% 58% Median
62 7% 49%  
63 7% 42%  
64 6% 35%  
65 6% 29%  
66 4% 23%  
67 4% 18%  
68 4% 14%  
69 3% 10% Last Result
70 2% 8%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.2% 4%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 0.7% 98.9%  
45 1.0% 98%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 3% 95%  
48 3% 92%  
49 4% 89%  
50 7% 85%  
51 5% 79%  
52 6% 73%  
53 6% 67%  
54 10% 61%  
55 8% 52% Median
56 6% 44%  
57 9% 38%  
58 5% 28%  
59 4% 23%  
60 5% 19%  
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 10%  
63 2% 7%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.0% 3%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.1%  
69 0.3% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0% 96%  
38 1.1% 96%  
39 3% 95%  
40 3% 92%  
41 6% 89%  
42 6% 83%  
43 7% 77%  
44 9% 70%  
45 8% 61%  
46 8% 53% Median
47 9% 45%  
48 8% 36%  
49 6% 29%  
50 5% 22%  
51 4% 17%  
52 5% 13%  
53 2% 8%  
54 2% 6%  
55 1.4% 4%  
56 1.0% 3%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 525 100% 515–538 511–544 509–559 503–571
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 465 100% 452–476 448–479 444–482 435–487
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 443 100% 429–453 424–457 421–460 412–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 419 100% 407–432 403–438 400–446 394–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 411 100% 398–424 393–427 389–430 380–436
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 397 100% 384–410 380–415 377–421 372–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 365 88% 354–380 350–385 347–390 341–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 335 2% 321–348 316–351 311–354 298–360
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 298 0% 285–311 282–316 279–320 273–329
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 282 0% 268–294 263–298 253–300 243–306
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 236 0% 224–249 221–253 219–256 214–264
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 191 0% 180–203 177–206 174–209 170–216
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 175 0% 163–186 157–189 140–192 131–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.8%  
502 0.1% 99.8%  
503 0.1% 99.6%  
504 0.1% 99.5%  
505 0.3% 99.4%  
506 0.3% 99.0%  
507 0.5% 98.7%  
508 0.4% 98%  
509 0.9% 98%  
510 1.0% 97%  
511 1.0% 96%  
512 0.9% 95%  
513 2% 94%  
514 2% 92%  
515 3% 90%  
516 2% 88%  
517 2% 85%  
518 4% 83%  
519 3% 79%  
520 3% 76%  
521 3% 73%  
522 5% 69%  
523 5% 65%  
524 5% 60%  
525 5% 55%  
526 4% 49%  
527 5% 46% Median
528 3% 40%  
529 3% 37%  
530 4% 34%  
531 4% 30%  
532 4% 25%  
533 2% 22%  
534 3% 19%  
535 3% 16%  
536 2% 14%  
537 1.2% 12%  
538 1.2% 10%  
539 1.3% 9%  
540 1.2% 8%  
541 0.4% 7%  
542 0.7% 6%  
543 0.6% 6%  
544 0.3% 5%  
545 0.2% 5%  
546 0.2% 5%  
547 0.1% 4%  
548 0.2% 4%  
549 0.2% 4%  
550 0.1% 4%  
551 0.1% 4%  
552 0.1% 4%  
553 0.1% 4%  
554 0.1% 3%  
555 0.1% 3%  
556 0.1% 3%  
557 0.4% 3%  
558 0.2% 3%  
559 0.2% 3%  
560 0.1% 2%  
561 0.2% 2%  
562 0.2% 2%  
563 0.2% 2%  
564 0.2% 2%  
565 0.2% 2%  
566 0.2% 1.4%  
567 0.2% 1.2%  
568 0.2% 1.0%  
569 0.1% 0.8%  
570 0% 0.6%  
571 0.2% 0.6%  
572 0.1% 0.4%  
573 0.1% 0.3%  
574 0.1% 0.3%  
575 0% 0.2%  
576 0.1% 0.2%  
577 0% 0.1%  
578 0% 0.1%  
579 0% 0.1%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.7%  
434 0% 99.7%  
435 0.1% 99.6%  
436 0.1% 99.5%  
437 0.1% 99.3%  
438 0.1% 99.2%  
439 0.2% 99.1%  
440 0.3% 99.0%  
441 0.2% 98.7%  
442 0.2% 98%  
443 0.3% 98%  
444 0.6% 98%  
445 0.8% 97%  
446 0.6% 97%  
447 0.5% 96%  
448 1.1% 95%  
449 1.1% 94%  
450 1.2% 93%  
451 1.1% 92%  
452 2% 91%  
453 2% 89%  
454 2% 87%  
455 2% 86%  
456 3% 83%  
457 4% 80%  
458 3% 76%  
459 3% 73%  
460 4% 70%  
461 5% 66%  
462 4% 61%  
463 2% 57%  
464 4% 55%  
465 5% 50%  
466 4% 46% Median
467 3% 42%  
468 4% 38%  
469 5% 34%  
470 4% 30%  
471 4% 26%  
472 3% 22%  
473 4% 19%  
474 3% 15%  
475 1.4% 12%  
476 2% 11%  
477 2% 9%  
478 1.4% 7%  
479 1.1% 6% Last Result
480 0.9% 5%  
481 1.2% 4%  
482 0.6% 3%  
483 0.6% 2%  
484 0.4% 2%  
485 0.5% 1.4%  
486 0.2% 0.9%  
487 0.2% 0.7%  
488 0.2% 0.5%  
489 0.1% 0.3%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0% 99.8%  
409 0% 99.7%  
410 0% 99.7%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0.2% 99.6%  
413 0.1% 99.4%  
414 0.3% 99.3%  
415 0.2% 99.1%  
416 0.2% 98.9%  
417 0.2% 98.7%  
418 0.2% 98%  
419 0.2% 98%  
420 0.4% 98%  
421 0.7% 98%  
422 0.7% 97%  
423 0.7% 96%  
424 0.9% 96%  
425 0.5% 95%  
426 0.7% 94%  
427 0.7% 94%  
428 1.5% 93%  
429 2% 91%  
430 3% 89%  
431 2% 86%  
432 3% 84%  
433 1.3% 82%  
434 2% 80%  
435 4% 79%  
436 3% 74%  
437 5% 72%  
438 6% 67%  
439 4% 61%  
440 3% 58%  
441 2% 55%  
442 2% 53%  
443 6% 50% Median
444 7% 45%  
445 4% 38%  
446 4% 34%  
447 2% 29%  
448 2% 27%  
449 3% 25%  
450 2% 22%  
451 3% 19%  
452 4% 16%  
453 2% 12%  
454 1.3% 9%  
455 0.8% 8%  
456 0.9% 7%  
457 2% 7%  
458 1.3% 5%  
459 0.8% 4%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.3%  
464 0.2% 1.0%  
465 0.2% 0.8%  
466 0.3% 0.6%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0.2% 99.6%  
395 0.2% 99.4%  
396 0.1% 99.3%  
397 0.3% 99.1%  
398 0.5% 98.9%  
399 0.6% 98% Last Result
400 0.4% 98%  
401 0.8% 97%  
402 0.8% 97%  
403 1.5% 96%  
404 1.3% 94%  
405 0.8% 93%  
406 2% 92%  
407 2% 91%  
408 3% 89%  
409 2% 86%  
410 1.5% 84%  
411 4% 83%  
412 3% 79%  
413 4% 76%  
414 4% 71%  
415 2% 68%  
416 6% 66%  
417 4% 60%  
418 4% 55%  
419 3% 51%  
420 3% 48% Median
421 5% 45%  
422 4% 40%  
423 4% 36%  
424 3% 32%  
425 3% 29%  
426 4% 26%  
427 2% 22%  
428 2% 19%  
429 2% 17%  
430 2% 15%  
431 2% 13%  
432 1.1% 11%  
433 0.9% 10%  
434 1.0% 9%  
435 0.8% 8%  
436 1.2% 7%  
437 0.4% 6%  
438 0.6% 5%  
439 0.6% 5%  
440 0.4% 4%  
441 0.3% 4%  
442 0.2% 4%  
443 0.1% 3%  
444 0.3% 3%  
445 0.2% 3%  
446 0.2% 3%  
447 0.1% 2%  
448 0.3% 2%  
449 0.3% 2%  
450 0.3% 2%  
451 0.2% 1.5%  
452 0.1% 1.3%  
453 0.2% 1.2%  
454 0.1% 1.0%  
455 0.2% 0.9%  
456 0.1% 0.8%  
457 0.1% 0.7%  
458 0% 0.6%  
459 0.1% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.1% 99.5%  
381 0.1% 99.5%  
382 0.1% 99.3%  
383 0.1% 99.2%  
384 0.2% 99.1%  
385 0.2% 98.9%  
386 0.2% 98.7%  
387 0.3% 98.6%  
388 0.6% 98%  
389 0.3% 98%  
390 0.6% 97%  
391 0.5% 97%  
392 0.7% 96%  
393 0.8% 96%  
394 0.7% 95%  
395 1.2% 94%  
396 0.9% 93%  
397 1.2% 92%  
398 2% 91%  
399 2% 89%  
400 2% 87%  
401 2% 85%  
402 3% 84%  
403 3% 80%  
404 3% 78%  
405 2% 75%  
406 5% 73%  
407 2% 67%  
408 3% 65%  
409 4% 62%  
410 5% 57%  
411 4% 53%  
412 4% 49% Median
413 5% 45%  
414 4% 41%  
415 3% 37%  
416 5% 34%  
417 3% 29%  
418 4% 26%  
419 3% 23%  
420 2% 19% Last Result
421 2% 17%  
422 3% 15%  
423 1.5% 12%  
424 2% 10%  
425 2% 9%  
426 1.2% 7%  
427 1.0% 5%  
428 1.0% 4%  
429 0.8% 3%  
430 0.5% 3%  
431 0.4% 2%  
432 0.5% 2%  
433 0.3% 1.2%  
434 0.2% 0.9%  
435 0.2% 0.7%  
436 0.1% 0.5%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0.1% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.6%  
372 0.2% 99.5%  
373 0.2% 99.4%  
374 0.3% 99.2%  
375 0.4% 98.9%  
376 0.4% 98.5%  
377 0.6% 98%  
378 0.7% 97%  
379 0.8% 97%  
380 1.0% 96%  
381 1.1% 95%  
382 1.4% 94%  
383 1.5% 92%  
384 2% 91%  
385 3% 89%  
386 2% 86%  
387 3% 85%  
388 2% 82%  
389 3% 79%  
390 3% 76%  
391 4% 73%  
392 4% 69%  
393 4% 65%  
394 4% 61%  
395 5% 58%  
396 3% 53%  
397 4% 50% Median
398 4% 46%  
399 4% 42%  
400 5% 38%  
401 3% 33%  
402 3% 31%  
403 4% 27%  
404 3% 24%  
405 2% 21%  
406 2% 18%  
407 2% 17%  
408 3% 15%  
409 2% 12%  
410 1.2% 10%  
411 1.3% 9%  
412 1.0% 8%  
413 0.7% 7%  
414 0.7% 6%  
415 0.7% 6%  
416 0.5% 5%  
417 0.4% 4%  
418 0.3% 4%  
419 0.4% 4%  
420 0.4% 3%  
421 0.4% 3%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.1% 2%  
424 0.2% 2%  
425 0.1% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.2% 2%  
429 0.2% 1.3%  
430 0.2% 1.1%  
431 0.1% 0.9%  
432 0% 0.8%  
433 0% 0.8%  
434 0.2% 0.7%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0.1% 0.5%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.1% 99.4%  
343 0.2% 99.2%  
344 0.5% 99.0%  
345 0.4% 98.6%  
346 0.3% 98%  
347 0.9% 98%  
348 0.7% 97%  
349 0.8% 96%  
350 0.5% 95%  
351 2% 95%  
352 1.3% 93%  
353 1.2% 91%  
354 2% 90%  
355 3% 88% Majority
356 2% 85%  
357 3% 83%  
358 4% 81%  
359 3% 77%  
360 3% 74%  
361 5% 72%  
362 4% 67%  
363 3% 63%  
364 3% 59%  
365 7% 56%  
366 3% 50% Median
367 3% 47%  
368 4% 44%  
369 5% 39%  
370 2% 35%  
371 3% 32%  
372 4% 30%  
373 3% 25%  
374 1.5% 22%  
375 3% 20%  
376 2% 17%  
377 2% 15%  
378 1.4% 13%  
379 2% 12%  
380 2% 10%  
381 0.9% 9%  
382 1.0% 8%  
383 0.7% 7%  
384 0.9% 6%  
385 0.5% 5%  
386 0.3% 5%  
387 0.7% 4%  
388 0.6% 4%  
389 0.2% 3%  
390 0.4% 3%  
391 0.3% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.1% 1.4%  
396 0.2% 1.4%  
397 0.2% 1.2%  
398 0.2% 1.1%  
399 0.1% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0.1% 99.2%  
303 0.2% 99.0%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0.2% 98.8%  
306 0.1% 98.5%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.2% 98%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.4% 97%  
313 0.3% 97%  
314 0.4% 96%  
315 0.6% 96%  
316 0.7% 95%  
317 0.9% 95%  
318 0.6% 94%  
319 0.7% 93%  
320 1.2% 92%  
321 1.4% 91%  
322 1.1% 90%  
323 2% 89%  
324 2% 87%  
325 3% 85%  
326 2% 83% Last Result
327 3% 80%  
328 3% 77%  
329 4% 75%  
330 4% 71%  
331 3% 67%  
332 4% 64%  
333 4% 60%  
334 4% 56%  
335 5% 53%  
336 2% 48% Median
337 5% 46%  
338 4% 41%  
339 4% 36%  
340 3% 33%  
341 3% 29%  
342 3% 26%  
343 4% 23%  
344 3% 19%  
345 2% 16%  
346 3% 14%  
347 1.2% 11%  
348 2% 10%  
349 1.3% 8%  
350 1.0% 7%  
351 1.1% 6%  
352 1.1% 5%  
353 0.8% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.4% 2% Majority
356 0.6% 2%  
357 0.3% 1.3%  
358 0.3% 1.0%  
359 0.2% 0.7%  
360 0.2% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.5%  
275 0.2% 99.3%  
276 0.3% 99.1%  
277 0.5% 98.8%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.5% 98%  
280 0.8% 97%  
281 1.0% 97%  
282 1.0% 96%  
283 1.2% 95%  
284 2% 93%  
285 2% 91%  
286 1.5% 90%  
287 3% 88%  
288 2% 85%  
289 2% 83% Last Result
290 3% 81%  
291 4% 77%  
292 3% 74%  
293 5% 71%  
294 3% 66%  
295 4% 63%  
296 5% 59%  
297 4% 55%  
298 4% 51% Median
299 5% 47%  
300 4% 43%  
301 3% 38%  
302 2% 35%  
303 5% 33%  
304 2% 27%  
305 3% 25%  
306 3% 22%  
307 3% 20%  
308 2% 16%  
309 2% 15%  
310 2% 13%  
311 2% 11%  
312 1.2% 9%  
313 0.9% 8%  
314 1.2% 7%  
315 0.7% 6%  
316 0.8% 5%  
317 0.7% 4%  
318 0.5% 4%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0.6% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.4%  
324 0.2% 1.3%  
325 0.2% 1.1%  
326 0.1% 0.9%  
327 0.1% 0.8%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0.1% 99.3%  
246 0.2% 99.2%  
247 0.2% 99.0%  
248 0.1% 98.8%  
249 0.2% 98.6%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 0.3% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0.1% 97%  
255 0.2% 97%  
256 0.1% 97%  
257 0.2% 97%  
258 0.2% 97%  
259 0.3% 97%  
260 0.3% 96%  
261 0.5% 96%  
262 0.5% 96%  
263 0.4% 95%  
264 0.8% 95%  
265 0.7% 94%  
266 0.9% 93%  
267 1.4% 92%  
268 1.5% 91%  
269 1.3% 89%  
270 2% 88%  
271 3% 86%  
272 1.5% 84%  
273 4% 82%  
274 2% 79%  
275 4% 76%  
276 3% 73%  
277 3% 70%  
278 4% 66%  
279 3% 62%  
280 5% 58%  
281 3% 54%  
282 4% 51%  
283 4% 47% Median
284 5% 43%  
285 3% 38%  
286 4% 35%  
287 3% 31%  
288 3% 28%  
289 3% 25%  
290 4% 22%  
291 2% 19%  
292 2% 16%  
293 2% 14%  
294 3% 12%  
295 1.0% 9%  
296 2% 8%  
297 1.2% 7%  
298 1.1% 5%  
299 0.9% 4%  
300 0.9% 3% Last Result
301 0.6% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.4% 1.5%  
304 0.3% 1.1%  
305 0.2% 0.8%  
306 0.1% 0.6%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.2% 99.7%  
214 0.2% 99.5%  
215 0.2% 99.3%  
216 0.3% 99.1%  
217 0.5% 98.8%  
218 0.6% 98%  
219 0.6% 98%  
220 1.0% 97% Last Result
221 1.2% 96%  
222 1.2% 95%  
223 1.4% 94%  
224 2% 92%  
225 2% 90%  
226 2% 88%  
227 3% 86%  
228 4% 83%  
229 3% 79%  
230 3% 76%  
231 4% 73%  
232 5% 69%  
233 3% 64%  
234 4% 60%  
235 5% 57%  
236 4% 51%  
237 3% 48% Median
238 3% 45%  
239 4% 41%  
240 3% 37%  
241 3% 34%  
242 5% 31%  
243 3% 26%  
244 2% 24%  
245 3% 21%  
246 3% 18%  
247 2% 15%  
248 2% 13%  
249 2% 11%  
250 2% 9%  
251 1.4% 7%  
252 0.9% 6%  
253 1.0% 5%  
254 0.6% 4%  
255 0.5% 3%  
256 0.6% 3%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0.3% 2%  
259 0.3% 2%  
260 0.2% 1.3%  
261 0.3% 1.1%  
262 0.2% 0.9%  
263 0.1% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.6%  
265 0.1% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.7%  
170 0.2% 99.5%  
171 0.4% 99.3%  
172 0.4% 99.0%  
173 0.6% 98.6%  
174 0.6% 98%  
175 0.7% 97%  
176 0.9% 97%  
177 1.4% 96%  
178 1.1% 94%  
179 2% 93%  
180 2% 91%  
181 2% 89%  
182 3% 87%  
183 3% 84%  
184 3% 81%  
185 3% 78%  
186 5% 75%  
187 4% 69%  
188 4% 65%  
189 5% 62%  
190 4% 56%  
191 5% 52% Median
192 4% 47%  
193 3% 43%  
194 6% 40%  
195 4% 34%  
196 3% 30%  
197 3% 26%  
198 5% 24%  
199 2% 19%  
200 2% 17%  
201 3% 15%  
202 2% 12%  
203 2% 10%  
204 1.4% 8%  
205 1.2% 7%  
206 1.3% 6%  
207 0.9% 4%  
208 0.7% 4%  
209 0.5% 3%  
210 0.6% 2%  
211 0.3% 2%  
212 0.3% 1.5%  
213 0.4% 1.2%  
214 0.1% 0.8%  
215 0.2% 0.7%  
216 0.1% 0.5%  
217 0.1% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.6%  
131 0.1% 99.6%  
132 0.1% 99.5%  
133 0.3% 99.4%  
134 0.2% 99.1%  
135 0.2% 98.9%  
136 0.2% 98.7%  
137 0.4% 98.5%  
138 0.4% 98%  
139 0.2% 98%  
140 0.3% 98%  
141 0.2% 97%  
142 0.2% 97%  
143 0.2% 97%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 0.1% 97%  
146 0.1% 97%  
147 0.1% 96%  
148 0.1% 96%  
149 0% 96%  
150 0.1% 96%  
151 0.1% 96%  
152 0.1% 96%  
153 0.1% 96%  
154 0.1% 96%  
155 0.2% 96%  
156 0.3% 96%  
157 0.5% 95%  
158 0.3% 95%  
159 0.7% 95%  
160 0.8% 94%  
161 0.9% 93%  
162 1.0% 92%  
163 2% 91%  
164 1.5% 90%  
165 2% 88%  
166 3% 86%  
167 3% 83%  
168 3% 80%  
169 4% 77%  
170 3% 74%  
171 4% 71%  
172 4% 67%  
173 5% 63%  
174 5% 58%  
175 5% 54%  
176 4% 49% Median
177 6% 45%  
178 5% 39%  
179 4% 34%  
180 5% 30%  
181 4% 25%  
182 3% 22%  
183 3% 19%  
184 3% 16%  
185 2% 13%  
186 2% 11%  
187 2% 8%  
188 1.4% 7%  
189 1.2% 5%  
190 0.9% 4%  
191 0.7% 3%  
192 0.8% 3%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.3% 1.1%  
196 0.3% 0.9%  
197 0.1% 0.6%  
198 0.2% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations