Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 1–4 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.0% 28.7–31.3% 28.4–31.7% 28.1–32.0% 27.5–32.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 227 218–235 214–238 211–239 206–247
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 120–136 118–138 116–141 112–144
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–120 104–123 101–126 98–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 75–91 73–94 71–97
Die Linke 69 57 51–63 49–64 49–66 46–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 57 52–62 50–64 49–66 47–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 41–50 39–52 38–53 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.2% 99.8%  
206 0.2% 99.7%  
207 0.4% 99.5%  
208 0.6% 99.1%  
209 0.2% 98%  
210 0.6% 98%  
211 0.3% 98%  
212 1.4% 97%  
213 0.8% 96%  
214 0.7% 95%  
215 2% 94%  
216 1.0% 93%  
217 1.1% 92%  
218 0.6% 91%  
219 1.2% 90%  
220 3% 89%  
221 5% 86%  
222 9% 81%  
223 7% 72%  
224 5% 65%  
225 4% 60%  
226 3% 56%  
227 4% 53% Median
228 7% 49%  
229 9% 42%  
230 7% 32%  
231 5% 25%  
232 6% 20%  
233 2% 14%  
234 1.5% 13%  
235 2% 11%  
236 3% 9%  
237 1.0% 6%  
238 2% 5%  
239 0.9% 3%  
240 0.5% 2%  
241 0.2% 2%  
242 0.3% 2%  
243 0.1% 1.4%  
244 0.3% 1.3%  
245 0.1% 1.0%  
246 0.3% 0.9%  
247 0.1% 0.6%  
248 0% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.4%  
250 0% 0.3%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.4%  
114 0.2% 99.2%  
115 0.3% 99.0%  
116 2% 98.7%  
117 0.8% 97%  
118 3% 96%  
119 2% 93%  
120 2% 91%  
121 3% 89%  
122 3% 86%  
123 2% 84%  
124 4% 82%  
125 5% 78%  
126 7% 73%  
127 18% 67% Median
128 5% 49%  
129 5% 44%  
130 4% 39%  
131 3% 35%  
132 9% 32%  
133 6% 22%  
134 3% 17%  
135 3% 13%  
136 3% 11%  
137 0.9% 7%  
138 2% 6%  
139 0.5% 4%  
140 0.5% 4%  
141 1.3% 3%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.6% 1.3%  
144 0.3% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.6% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.2%  
100 0.2% 99.1%  
101 2% 98.9%  
102 0.3% 97%  
103 0.8% 97%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 94%  
106 1.3% 92%  
107 6% 90%  
108 5% 84%  
109 0.9% 79%  
110 14% 78%  
111 4% 64%  
112 2% 60%  
113 8% 59%  
114 9% 51% Median
115 3% 42%  
116 9% 39%  
117 11% 30%  
118 0.7% 19%  
119 6% 18%  
120 3% 12%  
121 2% 10%  
122 2% 8%  
123 1.3% 5%  
124 1.1% 4%  
125 0.1% 3%  
126 1.5% 3%  
127 0.1% 1.3%  
128 0.2% 1.2%  
129 0.6% 0.9%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.5%  
72 0.6% 98.7%  
73 0.6% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 96%  
76 4% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 4% 85%  
79 10% 81%  
80 4% 70%  
81 6% 66%  
82 10% 60% Median
83 11% 50%  
84 4% 39%  
85 5% 35%  
86 6% 30%  
87 9% 24%  
88 2% 15%  
89 4% 13%  
90 3% 10%  
91 3% 7%  
92 1.1% 4%  
93 0.5% 3%  
94 1.5% 3% Last Result
95 0.2% 1.2%  
96 0.4% 1.1%  
97 0.2% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 0.2% 99.3%  
48 0.3% 99.0%  
49 4% 98.7%  
50 1.0% 94%  
51 8% 93%  
52 4% 86%  
53 3% 81%  
54 3% 78%  
55 8% 75%  
56 15% 68%  
57 16% 53% Median
58 6% 37%  
59 2% 31%  
60 6% 29%  
61 8% 23%  
62 3% 15%  
63 7% 12%  
64 1.4% 5%  
65 1.0% 4%  
66 0.6% 3%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 95%  
51 1.1% 93%  
52 5% 92%  
53 18% 87%  
54 4% 69%  
55 8% 65%  
56 4% 57%  
57 6% 52% Median
58 5% 46%  
59 12% 42%  
60 14% 30%  
61 5% 15%  
62 0.7% 10%  
63 2% 10%  
64 4% 8%  
65 1.1% 4%  
66 0.6% 3%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 0% 98.5%  
2 0% 98.5%  
3 0% 98.5%  
4 0% 98.5%  
5 0% 98.5%  
6 0% 98.5%  
7 0% 98.5%  
8 0% 98.5%  
9 0% 98.5%  
10 0% 98.5%  
11 0% 98.5%  
12 0% 98.5%  
13 0% 98.5%  
14 0% 98.5%  
15 0% 98.5%  
16 0% 98.5%  
17 0% 98.5%  
18 0% 98.5%  
19 0% 98.5%  
20 0% 98.5%  
21 0% 98.5%  
22 0% 98.5%  
23 0% 98.5%  
24 0% 98.5%  
25 0% 98.5%  
26 0% 98.5%  
27 0% 98.5%  
28 0% 98.5%  
29 0% 98.5%  
30 0% 98.5%  
31 0% 98.5%  
32 0% 98.5%  
33 0% 98.5%  
34 0% 98.5%  
35 0% 98.5%  
36 0% 98.5%  
37 0% 98.5%  
38 2% 98.5%  
39 3% 97%  
40 3% 94%  
41 9% 91%  
42 5% 82%  
43 7% 77%  
44 16% 70%  
45 9% 54% Median
46 16% 45%  
47 5% 29%  
48 7% 24%  
49 4% 17%  
50 3% 12%  
51 2% 9%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.2%  
56 0.2% 0.8%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 525 100% 516–534 513–536 511–539 505–561
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 449–468 442–469 439–471 435–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 441 100% 432–451 428–454 426–456 417–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 410 100% 402–422 400–427 395–427 391–440
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 410 100% 401–420 398–424 394–427 386–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 387–407 384–409 381–412 375–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 365 94% 356–376 353–380 350–383 345–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 328 0% 318–339 315–341 311–345 299–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 299 0% 289–308 285–311 282–315 279–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 287 0% 277–297 273–299 270–303 256–307
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 243 0% 232–250 229–255 226–256 223–263
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 171 0% 160–179 158–182 156–184 153–190
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 150–167 147–169 143–171 120–176

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0.1% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.8%  
504 0.1% 99.8%  
505 0.3% 99.7%  
506 0.2% 99.4%  
507 0.4% 99.2%  
508 0.3% 98.8%  
509 0.3% 98.5%  
510 0.5% 98%  
511 1.1% 98%  
512 1.0% 97%  
513 1.0% 96%  
514 1.5% 95%  
515 1.0% 93%  
516 5% 92%  
517 3% 87%  
518 2% 84%  
519 8% 82%  
520 3% 74%  
521 2% 71%  
522 3% 69%  
523 8% 65%  
524 5% 57%  
525 6% 52% Median
526 6% 46%  
527 8% 40%  
528 6% 32%  
529 5% 26%  
530 2% 20%  
531 4% 18%  
532 2% 15%  
533 2% 13%  
534 2% 10%  
535 2% 9%  
536 3% 7%  
537 0.6% 4%  
538 0.5% 3%  
539 0.6% 3%  
540 0.4% 2%  
541 0.1% 2%  
542 0.1% 2%  
543 0.1% 2%  
544 0.1% 2%  
545 0% 1.5%  
546 0% 1.4%  
547 0% 1.4%  
548 0% 1.4%  
549 0% 1.4%  
550 0% 1.4%  
551 0% 1.3%  
552 0% 1.3%  
553 0% 1.3%  
554 0.1% 1.3%  
555 0.1% 1.2%  
556 0% 1.1%  
557 0% 1.1%  
558 0.1% 1.0%  
559 0.4% 1.0%  
560 0% 0.5%  
561 0.1% 0.5%  
562 0.1% 0.4%  
563 0% 0.4%  
564 0% 0.3%  
565 0.1% 0.3%  
566 0.1% 0.2%  
567 0% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0.1% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.8%  
427 0% 99.7%  
428 0% 99.7%  
429 0% 99.7%  
430 0% 99.7%  
431 0% 99.7%  
432 0% 99.7%  
433 0% 99.6%  
434 0% 99.6%  
435 0.7% 99.6%  
436 0.2% 98.9%  
437 0.5% 98.7%  
438 0.5% 98%  
439 0.3% 98%  
440 1.5% 97%  
441 0.6% 96%  
442 1.0% 95%  
443 0.5% 94%  
444 0.6% 94%  
445 0.2% 93%  
446 0.5% 93%  
447 0.7% 92%  
448 2% 92%  
449 2% 90%  
450 2% 88%  
451 4% 86%  
452 9% 83%  
453 9% 73%  
454 11% 64%  
455 15% 53%  
456 2% 38% Median
457 5% 36%  
458 3% 30%  
459 2% 27%  
460 0.5% 26%  
461 0.5% 25%  
462 1.0% 25%  
463 2% 24%  
464 1.2% 22%  
465 3% 21%  
466 5% 18%  
467 3% 13%  
468 4% 11%  
469 3% 7%  
470 2% 4%  
471 1.0% 3%  
472 1.1% 2%  
473 0.2% 0.6%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0% 0.3%  
476 0.1% 0.3%  
477 0% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.8%  
410 0% 99.8%  
411 0% 99.8%  
412 0% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.7%  
415 0% 99.7%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.6%  
418 0% 99.4%  
419 0.2% 99.4%  
420 0.1% 99.2%  
421 0.1% 99.2%  
422 0.3% 99.1%  
423 0.2% 98.8%  
424 0.4% 98.6%  
425 0.4% 98%  
426 0.3% 98%  
427 2% 97%  
428 0.3% 95%  
429 2% 95%  
430 2% 93%  
431 0.9% 91%  
432 1.5% 90%  
433 2% 89%  
434 3% 87%  
435 3% 84%  
436 6% 81%  
437 8% 75%  
438 8% 67%  
439 5% 59%  
440 2% 54%  
441 4% 51%  
442 3% 48%  
443 6% 45% Median
444 7% 39%  
445 3% 32%  
446 3% 29%  
447 6% 26%  
448 3% 20%  
449 2% 17%  
450 1.2% 15%  
451 4% 14%  
452 2% 10%  
453 1.4% 8%  
454 3% 7%  
455 0.5% 4%  
456 0.9% 3%  
457 0.4% 2%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.1% 1.1%  
460 0.7% 1.0%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0.1% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.2% 99.8%  
391 0.2% 99.6%  
392 0.7% 99.4%  
393 0.2% 98.7%  
394 0.4% 98%  
395 0.8% 98%  
396 0.3% 97%  
397 0.7% 97%  
398 0.3% 96%  
399 0.8% 96%  
400 3% 95%  
401 2% 93%  
402 2% 90%  
403 2% 88%  
404 3% 86%  
405 5% 83%  
406 1.3% 79%  
407 1.2% 77%  
408 3% 76%  
409 21% 73%  
410 7% 53%  
411 5% 46% Median
412 6% 41%  
413 3% 34%  
414 2% 31%  
415 2% 29%  
416 0.4% 27%  
417 2% 26%  
418 3% 24%  
419 4% 21%  
420 2% 17%  
421 3% 15%  
422 2% 12%  
423 3% 10%  
424 1.0% 7%  
425 0.2% 6%  
426 0.7% 6%  
427 3% 5%  
428 0.5% 2%  
429 0.2% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.1% 1.5%  
432 0.1% 1.4%  
433 0% 1.3%  
434 0% 1.3%  
435 0.4% 1.2%  
436 0% 0.8%  
437 0.2% 0.8%  
438 0.1% 0.6%  
439 0% 0.6%  
440 0.1% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.4%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0% 99.7%  
382 0% 99.7%  
383 0% 99.7%  
384 0% 99.7%  
385 0.1% 99.6%  
386 0.1% 99.5%  
387 0.1% 99.4%  
388 0.1% 99.3%  
389 0.2% 99.2%  
390 0.2% 99.0%  
391 0.2% 98.8%  
392 0.6% 98.6%  
393 0.1% 98%  
394 0.3% 98%  
395 0.3% 97%  
396 0.6% 97%  
397 0.6% 97%  
398 2% 96%  
399 2% 94%  
400 2% 93%  
401 4% 91%  
402 5% 87%  
403 1.2% 83%  
404 7% 81%  
405 2% 74%  
406 3% 72%  
407 2% 69%  
408 3% 67%  
409 12% 64%  
410 3% 52%  
411 3% 50% Median
412 4% 46%  
413 5% 43%  
414 5% 38%  
415 6% 33%  
416 6% 27%  
417 4% 21%  
418 3% 17%  
419 3% 14%  
420 2% 12% Last Result
421 1.2% 10%  
422 0.8% 9%  
423 0.6% 8%  
424 2% 7%  
425 1.0% 5%  
426 0.8% 4%  
427 0.7% 3%  
428 0.8% 2%  
429 1.0% 1.5%  
430 0.1% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0.1% 0.2%  
435 0.1% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.2% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0.2% 99.5%  
377 0.2% 99.3%  
378 0.5% 99.0%  
379 0.2% 98.6%  
380 0.6% 98%  
381 0.7% 98%  
382 0.4% 97%  
383 1.3% 97%  
384 0.6% 95%  
385 2% 95%  
386 0.9% 93%  
387 3% 92%  
388 2% 90%  
389 2% 87%  
390 5% 85%  
391 8% 80%  
392 6% 72%  
393 6% 66%  
394 2% 60%  
395 3% 58%  
396 5% 55%  
397 3% 49%  
398 4% 46% Median
399 6% 42% Last Result
400 9% 36%  
401 5% 27%  
402 3% 22%  
403 3% 20%  
404 2% 17%  
405 2% 15%  
406 1.3% 13%  
407 2% 12%  
408 3% 9%  
409 2% 7%  
410 0.8% 4%  
411 0.8% 3%  
412 0.4% 3%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.2% 2%  
416 0.3% 2%  
417 0.2% 1.4%  
418 0.1% 1.2%  
419 0.1% 1.2%  
420 0% 1.0%  
421 0.1% 1.0%  
422 0% 0.9%  
423 0% 0.9%  
424 0.1% 0.9%  
425 0.1% 0.8%  
426 0% 0.7%  
427 0.4% 0.7%  
428 0% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.3%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0.1% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
339 0% 100%  
340 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.2% 99.3%  
348 0.4% 99.0%  
349 0.4% 98.7%  
350 2% 98%  
351 0.6% 97%  
352 0.4% 96%  
353 2% 96%  
354 0.3% 94%  
355 3% 94% Majority
356 5% 90%  
357 2% 86%  
358 3% 84%  
359 4% 81%  
360 2% 77%  
361 2% 75%  
362 3% 73%  
363 7% 69%  
364 3% 62%  
365 10% 59%  
366 2% 49% Median
367 6% 47%  
368 3% 41%  
369 10% 39%  
370 4% 29%  
371 2% 25%  
372 2% 22%  
373 4% 20%  
374 3% 16%  
375 2% 13%  
376 2% 11%  
377 1.0% 9%  
378 1.5% 8%  
379 0.5% 7%  
380 2% 6%  
381 0.9% 4%  
382 0.1% 3%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.7% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.1% 1.4%  
387 0.1% 1.3%  
388 0.2% 1.1%  
389 0% 0.9%  
390 0.1% 0.9%  
391 0% 0.8%  
392 0.4% 0.8%  
393 0% 0.4%  
394 0% 0.4%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0.4% 99.4%  
304 0% 99.0%  
305 0.2% 98.9%  
306 0.1% 98.8%  
307 0.1% 98.7%  
308 0.2% 98.7%  
309 0.1% 98.5%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.7% 98%  
312 0.4% 97%  
313 0.5% 97%  
314 0.5% 97%  
315 1.3% 96%  
316 3% 95%  
317 2% 92%  
318 1.4% 90%  
319 0.7% 89%  
320 2% 88%  
321 5% 86%  
322 6% 81%  
323 6% 75%  
324 0.9% 69%  
325 3% 68%  
326 5% 65% Last Result
327 9% 60%  
328 9% 51%  
329 6% 41% Median
330 2% 35%  
331 3% 33%  
332 3% 31%  
333 4% 28%  
334 5% 24%  
335 3% 19%  
336 0.8% 16%  
337 2% 16%  
338 3% 14%  
339 3% 11%  
340 0.7% 9%  
341 3% 8%  
342 0.9% 5%  
343 0.6% 4%  
344 0.9% 3%  
345 0.5% 3%  
346 1.3% 2%  
347 0.1% 0.8%  
348 0.3% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 1.0% 99.5%  
281 0.8% 98.5%  
282 0.7% 98%  
283 0.8% 97%  
284 1.0% 96%  
285 2% 95%  
286 0.6% 93%  
287 0.8% 92%  
288 1.2% 91%  
289 2% 90% Last Result
290 3% 88%  
291 3% 86%  
292 4% 83%  
293 6% 79%  
294 6% 73%  
295 5% 67%  
296 5% 62%  
297 4% 57%  
298 3% 54% Median
299 3% 50%  
300 12% 48%  
301 3% 36%  
302 2% 33%  
303 3% 31%  
304 2% 28%  
305 7% 26%  
306 1.2% 19%  
307 5% 17%  
308 4% 13%  
309 2% 9%  
310 2% 7%  
311 2% 6%  
312 0.6% 4%  
313 0.6% 3%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.6% 2%  
318 0.2% 1.4%  
319 0.2% 1.2%  
320 0.2% 1.0%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0% 0.3%  
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.4% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.2%  
258 0% 99.0%  
259 0.1% 99.0%  
260 0% 99.0%  
261 0% 98.9%  
262 0.1% 98.9%  
263 0% 98.8%  
264 0.1% 98.8%  
265 0% 98.7%  
266 0.1% 98.7%  
267 0.3% 98.6%  
268 0.4% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.6% 97%  
272 0.9% 97%  
273 1.3% 96%  
274 0.9% 94%  
275 1.2% 93%  
276 0.7% 92%  
277 5% 91%  
278 5% 87%  
279 2% 82%  
280 1.1% 80%  
281 3% 79%  
282 5% 76%  
283 7% 71%  
284 5% 65%  
285 3% 59%  
286 5% 56% Median
287 1.2% 51%  
288 13% 50%  
289 6% 36%  
290 3% 30%  
291 2% 27%  
292 6% 25%  
293 5% 20%  
294 2% 15%  
295 2% 13%  
296 0.6% 11%  
297 3% 10%  
298 2% 8%  
299 0.9% 6%  
300 0.8% 5% Last Result
301 0.4% 4%  
302 1.0% 4%  
303 0.4% 3%  
304 1.4% 2%  
305 0.1% 0.9%  
306 0.2% 0.8%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0.3% 0.5%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0.1% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0% 99.6%  
223 0.5% 99.6%  
224 0.6% 99.1%  
225 0.8% 98%  
226 0.6% 98%  
227 0.5% 97%  
228 0.3% 97%  
229 2% 96%  
230 2% 95%  
231 2% 93%  
232 4% 91%  
233 2% 87%  
234 2% 85%  
235 1.2% 83%  
236 5% 82%  
237 9% 76%  
238 5% 67%  
239 3% 62%  
240 3% 60%  
241 3% 57% Median
242 2% 54%  
243 7% 52%  
244 14% 45%  
245 2% 32%  
246 4% 30%  
247 3% 26%  
248 7% 22%  
249 1.2% 15%  
250 4% 14%  
251 2% 9%  
252 1.2% 8%  
253 0.4% 6%  
254 0.3% 6%  
255 1.0% 6%  
256 3% 5%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0.6% 2%  
259 0.1% 1.2%  
260 0.2% 1.1%  
261 0.1% 0.9%  
262 0.2% 0.9%  
263 0.2% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.4%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.2% 99.8%  
153 0.7% 99.6%  
154 0.4% 98.8%  
155 0.5% 98%  
156 0.9% 98%  
157 0.1% 97%  
158 2% 97%  
159 0.7% 95%  
160 4% 94%  
161 0.5% 90%  
162 3% 89%  
163 0.5% 86%  
164 6% 85%  
165 1.4% 79%  
166 4% 78%  
167 10% 74%  
168 3% 64%  
169 6% 61%  
170 2% 55%  
171 8% 52% Median
172 0.2% 44%  
173 17% 44%  
174 0.2% 27%  
175 8% 27%  
176 3% 19%  
177 4% 16%  
178 0.9% 12%  
179 5% 11%  
180 1.0% 7%  
181 0.3% 6%  
182 1.3% 5%  
183 0.2% 4%  
184 1.4% 4%  
185 0.6% 2%  
186 0.8% 2%  
187 0.1% 1.0%  
188 0.2% 0.9%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.2% 0.5%  
191 0% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.7%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.6%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0% 99.4%  
122 0% 99.4%  
123 0.1% 99.4%  
124 0.5% 99.3%  
125 0% 98.9%  
126 0% 98.9%  
127 0% 98.8%  
128 0.1% 98.8%  
129 0.1% 98.7%  
130 0.1% 98.6%  
131 0% 98.6%  
132 0% 98.5%  
133 0% 98.5%  
134 0% 98.5%  
135 0% 98.5%  
136 0% 98.5%  
137 0% 98.5%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0.1% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0.4% 98%  
142 0.5% 98%  
143 0.1% 98%  
144 0.6% 97%  
145 0.5% 97%  
146 1.0% 96%  
147 1.3% 95%  
148 2% 94%  
149 1.1% 92%  
150 2% 91%  
151 4% 89%  
152 6% 86%  
153 3% 79%  
154 3% 77%  
155 4% 74%  
156 10% 70%  
157 8% 60%  
158 4% 52%  
159 4% 48% Median
160 7% 44%  
161 10% 37%  
162 2% 27%  
163 2% 25%  
164 4% 23%  
165 4% 19%  
166 3% 14%  
167 3% 12%  
168 2% 8%  
169 2% 6%  
170 1.3% 4%  
171 0.5% 3%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.6% 2%  
174 0.2% 1.3%  
175 0.4% 1.1%  
176 0.2% 0.7%  
177 0.3% 0.5%  
178 0% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations