Opinion Poll by Kantar, 30 April–6 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.3–32.5% 28.9–32.9% 28.5–33.3% 27.8–34.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.7–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.5–19.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 14.0% 12.9–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 9.9–14.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.2% 6.3–8.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 236 223–246 221–252 218–258 213–265
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 119–139 118–142 115–145 111–152
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 108 99–120 98–122 96–123 93–127
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 83–102 81–104 79–105 75–111
Die Linke 69 60 53–67 52–71 51–75 47–78
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 55 48–64 48–67 46–68 43–71
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 40 0–43 0–44 0–46 0–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0.1% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.8%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.1% 99.6%  
213 0.4% 99.6%  
214 0.2% 99.2%  
215 0.6% 98.9%  
216 0.2% 98%  
217 0.3% 98%  
218 0.5% 98%  
219 0.2% 97%  
220 2% 97%  
221 0.3% 95%  
222 1.1% 95%  
223 4% 94%  
224 0.8% 90%  
225 3% 89%  
226 1.2% 86%  
227 2% 85%  
228 3% 83%  
229 10% 80%  
230 4% 70%  
231 2% 66%  
232 2% 64%  
233 2% 61%  
234 3% 59%  
235 3% 56%  
236 16% 53% Median
237 2% 37%  
238 5% 35%  
239 4% 29%  
240 1.4% 25%  
241 0.5% 24%  
242 2% 23%  
243 1.3% 21%  
244 8% 19%  
245 0.6% 12%  
246 3% 11%  
247 0.5% 9%  
248 0.4% 8%  
249 0.6% 8%  
250 2% 7%  
251 0.4% 5%  
252 0.4% 5%  
253 0.5% 5%  
254 0.3% 4%  
255 0.4% 4%  
256 0.1% 4%  
257 0.6% 3%  
258 0.8% 3%  
259 0.3% 2%  
260 0.2% 2%  
261 0.3% 1.5%  
262 0.2% 1.2%  
263 0.2% 1.0%  
264 0.3% 0.8%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0.1% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.7%  
112 0.5% 99.4%  
113 0.9% 98.9%  
114 0.2% 98%  
115 1.1% 98%  
116 0.7% 97%  
117 0.3% 96%  
118 2% 96%  
119 7% 94%  
120 3% 87%  
121 1.3% 83%  
122 7% 82%  
123 3% 75%  
124 2% 72%  
125 0.6% 70%  
126 8% 69%  
127 12% 61% Median
128 2% 49%  
129 3% 48%  
130 4% 45%  
131 6% 41%  
132 2% 35%  
133 1.2% 33%  
134 11% 32%  
135 4% 22%  
136 1.4% 18%  
137 2% 16%  
138 2% 14%  
139 4% 12%  
140 0.5% 8%  
141 2% 8%  
142 2% 6%  
143 0.7% 4%  
144 0.5% 3%  
145 0.5% 3%  
146 0.8% 2%  
147 0.2% 2%  
148 0.2% 1.3%  
149 0.5% 1.2%  
150 0.1% 0.7%  
151 0.1% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.6%  
93 0.3% 99.5%  
94 0.4% 99.2%  
95 0.4% 98.8%  
96 0.9% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 0.6% 96%  
99 7% 95%  
100 2% 88%  
101 6% 87%  
102 2% 81%  
103 4% 78%  
104 3% 75%  
105 7% 71%  
106 4% 64%  
107 2% 60%  
108 16% 58% Median
109 1.2% 42%  
110 11% 40%  
111 4% 30%  
112 2% 26%  
113 2% 24%  
114 0.9% 22%  
115 1.4% 21%  
116 1.0% 20%  
117 3% 19%  
118 2% 16%  
119 3% 14%  
120 3% 10%  
121 2% 7%  
122 3% 6%  
123 0.6% 3%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.3%  
126 0.2% 0.8%  
127 0.3% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.8% 99.4%  
77 0.3% 98.6%  
78 0.2% 98%  
79 2% 98%  
80 0.4% 96%  
81 1.3% 96%  
82 2% 94%  
83 2% 92%  
84 3% 90%  
85 1.1% 87%  
86 20% 86%  
87 6% 67%  
88 1.0% 61%  
89 4% 60%  
90 4% 56%  
91 4% 52% Median
92 14% 48%  
93 3% 34%  
94 2% 32% Last Result
95 0.6% 29%  
96 2% 28%  
97 3% 26%  
98 7% 23%  
99 3% 16%  
100 1.1% 13%  
101 2% 12%  
102 2% 10%  
103 3% 8%  
104 0.1% 5%  
105 2% 5%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.5% 2%  
108 0.3% 2%  
109 0.1% 1.2%  
110 0.6% 1.1%  
111 0% 0.5%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.1% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.5%  
49 0.4% 99.3%  
50 1.2% 98.8%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 4% 94%  
54 0.6% 90%  
55 2% 89%  
56 1.0% 87%  
57 3% 86%  
58 9% 83%  
59 7% 74%  
60 19% 67% Median
61 7% 49%  
62 5% 41%  
63 4% 36%  
64 2% 32%  
65 10% 30%  
66 6% 20%  
67 4% 14%  
68 3% 10%  
69 0.5% 7% Last Result
70 1.1% 7%  
71 1.0% 6%  
72 0.6% 5%  
73 1.0% 4%  
74 0.3% 3%  
75 1.2% 3%  
76 0.6% 1.4%  
77 0.2% 0.8%  
78 0.1% 0.5%  
79 0% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.4%  
45 1.1% 98.6%  
46 0.4% 98% Last Result
47 2% 97%  
48 7% 95%  
49 2% 88%  
50 10% 86%  
51 2% 76%  
52 17% 75%  
53 2% 57%  
54 3% 55%  
55 11% 52% Median
56 8% 41%  
57 6% 33%  
58 5% 27%  
59 0.5% 22%  
60 5% 21%  
61 1.2% 16%  
62 1.4% 15%  
63 3% 14%  
64 0.4% 10%  
65 3% 10%  
66 2% 7%  
67 0.9% 5%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.2% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.5%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0% 70%  
7 0% 70%  
8 0% 70%  
9 0% 70%  
10 0% 70%  
11 0% 70%  
12 0% 70%  
13 0% 70%  
14 0% 70%  
15 0% 70%  
16 0% 70%  
17 0% 70%  
18 0% 70%  
19 0% 70%  
20 0% 70%  
21 0% 70%  
22 0% 70%  
23 0% 70%  
24 0% 70%  
25 0% 70%  
26 0% 70%  
27 0% 70%  
28 0% 70%  
29 0% 70%  
30 0% 70%  
31 0% 70%  
32 0% 70%  
33 0% 70%  
34 0% 70%  
35 0% 70%  
36 0% 70%  
37 0% 70%  
38 7% 70%  
39 12% 63%  
40 18% 52% Median
41 11% 34%  
42 10% 23%  
43 6% 14%  
44 3% 8%  
45 1.3% 5%  
46 1.4% 3%  
47 0.5% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.3%  
49 0.4% 0.8%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 523 100% 509–551 506–559 503–560 499–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 452 100% 428–461 426–465 421–467 414–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 415 100% 407–437 402–443 400–449 393–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 428 100% 410–442 407–444 401–446 394–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 414 100% 391–425 386–430 383–431 375–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 397 100% 382–420 376–427 375–429 368–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 379 99.4% 365–400 363–406 360–410 354–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 324 0% 295–336 291–339 287–342 280–349
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 295 0% 284–318 279–323 278–326 271–334
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 268 0% 246–283 240–285 235–289 228–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 235 0% 224–253 220–259 216–262 211–268
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 179–203 175–207 174–209 168–217
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 163 0% 131–176 126–179 123–183 116–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 99.9%  
493 0% 99.9%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.9%  
496 0% 99.8%  
497 0% 99.8%  
498 0.1% 99.7%  
499 0.2% 99.6%  
500 0.1% 99.4%  
501 0% 99.4%  
502 1.2% 99.3%  
503 1.2% 98%  
504 0.4% 97%  
505 0.2% 97%  
506 2% 96%  
507 0.5% 94%  
508 1.0% 94%  
509 5% 93%  
510 3% 88%  
511 0.2% 85%  
512 4% 84%  
513 1.5% 80%  
514 0.8% 79%  
515 1.0% 78%  
516 0.9% 77%  
517 5% 76%  
518 0.9% 72%  
519 4% 71%  
520 0.5% 67%  
521 0.3% 66%  
522 4% 66%  
523 19% 62%  
524 0.9% 43%  
525 0.3% 42%  
526 3% 42% Median
527 4% 39%  
528 0.3% 34%  
529 1.0% 34%  
530 2% 33%  
531 1.0% 31%  
532 0.2% 30%  
533 1.1% 30%  
534 0.3% 29%  
535 0.6% 29%  
536 0.3% 28%  
537 0.1% 28%  
538 0.6% 28%  
539 2% 27%  
540 0.3% 24%  
541 0.5% 24%  
542 0.4% 24%  
543 0.2% 23%  
544 0.3% 23%  
545 3% 23%  
546 0.2% 19%  
547 1.4% 19%  
548 3% 18%  
549 1.5% 15%  
550 0.8% 14%  
551 3% 13%  
552 0.2% 10%  
553 0.3% 10%  
554 0.8% 9%  
555 1.3% 9%  
556 0.9% 7%  
557 0.8% 6%  
558 0.2% 6%  
559 0.9% 5%  
560 2% 4%  
561 0.1% 2%  
562 0.2% 2%  
563 0.2% 2%  
564 0.1% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 1.0% 2%  
567 0.2% 0.5%  
568 0.1% 0.4%  
569 0.1% 0.3%  
570 0.1% 0.2%  
571 0% 0.2%  
572 0.1% 0.1%  
573 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.2% 99.9%  
413 0.2% 99.8%  
414 0.1% 99.6%  
415 0.4% 99.5%  
416 0.2% 99.1%  
417 0.4% 98.8%  
418 0.3% 98%  
419 0.4% 98%  
420 0.3% 98%  
421 0.1% 98%  
422 0.2% 97%  
423 1.1% 97%  
424 0.5% 96%  
425 0.3% 96%  
426 3% 95%  
427 2% 93%  
428 1.1% 90%  
429 2% 89%  
430 1.3% 87%  
431 0.3% 85%  
432 1.2% 85%  
433 0.9% 84%  
434 0.6% 83%  
435 0.8% 82%  
436 0.3% 82%  
437 2% 81%  
438 0.9% 79%  
439 2% 78%  
440 2% 77%  
441 1.1% 74%  
442 3% 73%  
443 1.0% 70%  
444 1.0% 69%  
445 4% 68%  
446 0.8% 65%  
447 0.7% 64%  
448 1.3% 63%  
449 0.6% 62%  
450 2% 61%  
451 4% 60%  
452 7% 56%  
453 8% 49%  
454 4% 40%  
455 15% 37%  
456 3% 22%  
457 1.2% 18%  
458 6% 17% Median
459 0.4% 11%  
460 0.7% 11%  
461 1.2% 10%  
462 0.7% 9%  
463 1.4% 8%  
464 1.0% 7%  
465 1.4% 6%  
466 1.1% 5%  
467 2% 4%  
468 0.4% 1.4%  
469 0.2% 1.0%  
470 0.3% 0.7%  
471 0.2% 0.5%  
472 0% 0.3%  
473 0% 0.3%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1% Last Result
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.8%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0.1% 99.7%  
391 0% 99.7%  
392 0.1% 99.6%  
393 0.1% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.1% 99.4%  
396 0% 99.3%  
397 0.3% 99.3%  
398 0.2% 99.1%  
399 1.0% 98.9% Last Result
400 0.7% 98%  
401 1.4% 97%  
402 1.1% 96%  
403 0.5% 95%  
404 0.1% 94%  
405 0.9% 94%  
406 0.2% 93%  
407 4% 93%  
408 0.1% 89%  
409 5% 89%  
410 6% 84%  
411 3% 79%  
412 2% 76%  
413 8% 74%  
414 6% 66%  
415 13% 60%  
416 0.8% 47%  
417 4% 46%  
418 4% 42% Median
419 2% 37%  
420 1.4% 35%  
421 1.2% 34%  
422 0.8% 32%  
423 3% 32%  
424 1.2% 29%  
425 2% 28%  
426 3% 26%  
427 3% 23%  
428 1.2% 20%  
429 2% 19%  
430 1.3% 17%  
431 0.3% 15%  
432 1.1% 15%  
433 0.8% 14%  
434 0.5% 13%  
435 0.8% 12%  
436 0.3% 12%  
437 2% 11%  
438 0.8% 10%  
439 0.7% 9%  
440 1.4% 8%  
441 0.7% 7%  
442 0.4% 6%  
443 0.9% 5%  
444 0.8% 4%  
445 0.2% 4%  
446 0.5% 4%  
447 0.1% 3%  
448 0.2% 3%  
449 0.3% 3%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0.4% 2%  
452 0.5% 2%  
453 0.1% 1.4%  
454 0.3% 1.4%  
455 0.2% 1.1%  
456 0% 0.9%  
457 0.1% 0.8%  
458 0.1% 0.8%  
459 0.1% 0.7%  
460 0% 0.6%  
461 0% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0.1% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.1% 99.4%  
396 0.2% 99.3%  
397 0.1% 99.2%  
398 0.2% 99.1%  
399 0.2% 98.9%  
400 0.9% 98.7%  
401 0.6% 98%  
402 0.3% 97%  
403 0.7% 97%  
404 0.5% 96%  
405 0.4% 96%  
406 0.4% 95%  
407 0.7% 95%  
408 1.3% 94%  
409 2% 93%  
410 3% 91%  
411 1.0% 88%  
412 1.1% 87%  
413 1.2% 86%  
414 0.4% 85%  
415 0.5% 84%  
416 2% 84%  
417 2% 82%  
418 3% 79%  
419 2% 76%  
420 3% 74%  
421 2% 71%  
422 0.8% 69%  
423 0.7% 68%  
424 3% 67%  
425 3% 64%  
426 4% 61%  
427 2% 57%  
428 8% 56%  
429 2% 48%  
430 1.4% 47%  
431 3% 45%  
432 0.9% 43%  
433 2% 42%  
434 2% 40%  
435 5% 38%  
436 12% 34%  
437 0.5% 21%  
438 2% 21%  
439 2% 19% Median
440 0.2% 17%  
441 6% 16%  
442 2% 10%  
443 0.2% 8%  
444 4% 8%  
445 0.4% 3%  
446 0.7% 3%  
447 0.1% 2%  
448 1.0% 2%  
449 0.1% 1.2%  
450 0.2% 1.1%  
451 0.2% 0.9%  
452 0.4% 0.7%  
453 0% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0.1% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.7%  
374 0% 99.6%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0.1% 99.5%  
377 0.1% 99.4%  
378 0.1% 99.3%  
379 0.3% 99.2%  
380 0.4% 99.0%  
381 0.2% 98.5%  
382 0.4% 98%  
383 0.9% 98%  
384 0.3% 97%  
385 2% 97%  
386 0.1% 95%  
387 0.6% 95%  
388 0.5% 94%  
389 0.5% 94%  
390 3% 93%  
391 0.9% 90%  
392 2% 89%  
393 0.7% 88%  
394 2% 87%  
395 0.9% 86%  
396 3% 85%  
397 0.5% 81%  
398 0.8% 81%  
399 0.8% 80%  
400 2% 79%  
401 1.3% 77%  
402 2% 76%  
403 2% 74%  
404 6% 72%  
405 0.8% 66%  
406 2% 66%  
407 2% 64%  
408 0.9% 62%  
409 3% 61%  
410 0.9% 58%  
411 1.4% 57%  
412 3% 56%  
413 3% 53%  
414 10% 50%  
415 0.6% 40%  
416 2% 40%  
417 4% 38%  
418 2% 33%  
419 4% 31%  
420 5% 27% Last Result
421 2% 22%  
422 2% 19% Median
423 3% 17%  
424 1.0% 15%  
425 4% 14%  
426 2% 10%  
427 1.3% 8%  
428 0.4% 6%  
429 0.9% 6%  
430 2% 5%  
431 1.0% 3%  
432 0.4% 2%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.6% 2%  
435 0.4% 1.3%  
436 0.1% 0.9%  
437 0.3% 0.8%  
438 0.1% 0.5%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.5% 99.7%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0% 98.9%  
371 0.2% 98.9%  
372 0.2% 98.7%  
373 0.5% 98.5%  
374 0.2% 98%  
375 1.5% 98%  
376 3% 96%  
377 1.0% 93%  
378 0% 92%  
379 0.7% 92%  
380 0.2% 91%  
381 0.9% 91%  
382 0.2% 90%  
383 7% 90%  
384 1.4% 83%  
385 0.4% 82%  
386 1.1% 81%  
387 2% 80%  
388 1.0% 78%  
389 7% 77%  
390 0.5% 70%  
391 3% 70%  
392 1.5% 67%  
393 0.2% 66%  
394 0.7% 66%  
395 2% 65%  
396 12% 63%  
397 5% 51%  
398 0.5% 46%  
399 0.8% 46% Median
400 9% 45%  
401 0.6% 36%  
402 0.4% 36%  
403 0.8% 35%  
404 5% 34%  
405 1.4% 29%  
406 0.6% 28%  
407 2% 27%  
408 1.4% 25%  
409 1.4% 24%  
410 3% 22%  
411 1.3% 19%  
412 0.8% 18%  
413 1.2% 17%  
414 0.3% 16%  
415 0.4% 16%  
416 1.4% 15%  
417 0.5% 14%  
418 0.5% 13%  
419 1.5% 13%  
420 2% 11%  
421 2% 9%  
422 0.5% 8%  
423 0.4% 7%  
424 0.9% 7%  
425 0.4% 6%  
426 0.2% 5%  
427 0.5% 5%  
428 1.0% 5%  
429 1.3% 4%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.6% 2%  
432 0.2% 1.4%  
433 0.3% 1.2%  
434 0% 0.9%  
435 0% 0.9%  
436 0.2% 0.9%  
437 0% 0.7%  
438 0% 0.7%  
439 0.4% 0.6%  
440 0% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0.1% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100% Last Result
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0.2% 99.8%  
354 0.2% 99.6%  
355 0.7% 99.4% Majority
356 0.2% 98.7%  
357 0.5% 98.5%  
358 0.1% 98%  
359 0.2% 98%  
360 0.8% 98%  
361 0.1% 97%  
362 1.1% 97%  
363 0.8% 96%  
364 0.3% 95%  
365 6% 95%  
366 0.2% 89%  
367 4% 89%  
368 1.0% 85%  
369 2% 84%  
370 2% 82%  
371 0.3% 81%  
372 2% 80%  
373 1.1% 78%  
374 10% 77%  
375 0.7% 67%  
376 5% 67%  
377 4% 62%  
378 0.9% 58%  
379 9% 57%  
380 0.6% 48%  
381 3% 47%  
382 2% 44% Median
383 2% 42%  
384 0.5% 40%  
385 6% 39%  
386 2% 33%  
387 2% 31%  
388 1.4% 29%  
389 2% 28%  
390 4% 26%  
391 1.0% 22%  
392 2% 21%  
393 1.3% 19%  
394 1.1% 18%  
395 1.0% 17%  
396 3% 16%  
397 0.4% 13%  
398 0.9% 12%  
399 0.5% 11%  
400 2% 11%  
401 0.4% 9%  
402 1.4% 9%  
403 1.5% 7%  
404 0.5% 6%  
405 0.1% 5%  
406 0.5% 5%  
407 1.3% 5%  
408 0.3% 3%  
409 0.4% 3%  
410 0.6% 3%  
411 0.1% 2%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.7% 2%  
414 0.1% 1.2%  
415 0% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 1.0%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.2% 0.6%  
419 0% 0.4%  
420 0% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.6%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.5% 99.3%  
283 0% 98.8%  
284 0.2% 98.8%  
285 0.7% 98.6%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.6% 97%  
289 0.7% 96%  
290 0.3% 96%  
291 0.9% 95%  
292 3% 95%  
293 0.3% 92%  
294 0.7% 92%  
295 2% 91%  
296 0.8% 89%  
297 0.4% 88%  
298 3% 88%  
299 0.6% 85%  
300 2% 85%  
301 1.2% 83%  
302 0.7% 82%  
303 0.8% 81%  
304 0.4% 80%  
305 1.4% 80%  
306 1.4% 79%  
307 0.9% 77%  
308 1.1% 76%  
309 2% 75%  
310 1.4% 74%  
311 0.9% 72%  
312 1.1% 71%  
313 1.3% 70%  
314 2% 69%  
315 1.1% 67%  
316 0.6% 66%  
317 3% 66%  
318 6% 63%  
319 0.8% 57%  
320 2% 56%  
321 1.0% 54%  
322 1.0% 53%  
323 1.5% 52%  
324 2% 51%  
325 3% 48%  
326 3% 45% Last Result
327 4% 42%  
328 11% 38%  
329 1.4% 26%  
330 1.1% 25%  
331 2% 24% Median
332 1.4% 22%  
333 5% 21%  
334 0.7% 15%  
335 4% 15%  
336 2% 11%  
337 0.9% 9%  
338 1.1% 9%  
339 4% 7%  
340 0.1% 3%  
341 0.3% 3%  
342 0.6% 3%  
343 0.7% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.4%  
345 0.3% 1.3%  
346 0% 1.0%  
347 0.2% 1.0%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.4% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0.3% 99.5%  
273 0.1% 99.2%  
274 0.4% 99.1%  
275 0.6% 98.7%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 1.0% 98%  
279 2% 97%  
280 0.9% 95%  
281 0.4% 94%  
282 1.3% 94%  
283 2% 92%  
284 4% 90%  
285 1.0% 86%  
286 3% 85%  
287 2% 83%  
288 2% 81%  
289 5% 78% Last Result
290 4% 73%  
291 2% 69%  
292 4% 67%  
293 2% 62%  
294 0.6% 60%  
295 10% 60% Median
296 3% 50%  
297 3% 47%  
298 1.4% 44%  
299 0.9% 43%  
300 3% 42%  
301 0.9% 39%  
302 2% 38%  
303 2% 36%  
304 0.8% 34%  
305 6% 34%  
306 2% 28%  
307 2% 26%  
308 1.3% 24%  
309 2% 23%  
310 0.8% 21%  
311 0.8% 20%  
312 0.5% 19%  
313 3% 19%  
314 0.9% 15%  
315 2% 14%  
316 0.7% 13%  
317 2% 12%  
318 0.9% 11%  
319 3% 10%  
320 0.5% 7%  
321 0.5% 6%  
322 0.6% 6%  
323 0.1% 5%  
324 2% 5%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.9% 3%  
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.4% 1.5%  
330 0.3% 1.0%  
331 0.1% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.5%  
336 0.2% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.5%  
230 0.2% 99.3%  
231 0.1% 99.1%  
232 0.3% 99.0%  
233 0.2% 98.7%  
234 0.7% 98.5%  
235 0.4% 98%  
236 0.5% 97%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 1.0% 97%  
239 0.3% 96%  
240 0.6% 95%  
241 0.8% 95%  
242 1.0% 94%  
243 0.6% 93%  
244 2% 92%  
245 0.4% 91%  
246 1.0% 90%  
247 0.9% 89%  
248 2% 88%  
249 1.4% 87%  
250 1.3% 85%  
251 1.1% 84%  
252 0.6% 83%  
253 4% 82%  
254 0.7% 78%  
255 0.2% 77%  
256 1.0% 77%  
257 2% 76%  
258 1.0% 74%  
259 3% 73%  
260 0.8% 70%  
261 2% 69%  
262 0.5% 67%  
263 1.2% 67%  
264 6% 65%  
265 0.5% 59%  
266 3% 59%  
267 0.8% 56%  
268 8% 55%  
269 2% 47%  
270 2% 46%  
271 4% 43%  
272 2% 39%  
273 0.7% 37%  
274 0.7% 36%  
275 10% 35% Median
276 3% 25%  
277 4% 22%  
278 0.8% 19%  
279 2% 18%  
280 0.6% 15%  
281 2% 15%  
282 1.0% 13%  
283 6% 12%  
284 0.6% 6%  
285 0.5% 6%  
286 0.2% 5%  
287 1.3% 5%  
288 0.8% 3%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0.1% 2%  
291 0.9% 2%  
292 0.2% 1.4%  
293 0.7% 1.2%  
294 0% 0.6%  
295 0.2% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1% Last Result
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0.1% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.2% 99.8%  
211 0.2% 99.6%  
212 0.1% 99.4%  
213 0.1% 99.3%  
214 0% 99.3%  
215 2% 99.2%  
216 0.5% 98%  
217 0.1% 97%  
218 0.4% 97%  
219 0.4% 97%  
220 3% 96% Last Result
221 1.1% 93%  
222 0.3% 92%  
223 0.5% 91%  
224 4% 91%  
225 5% 87%  
226 2% 82%  
227 0.5% 80%  
228 2% 79%  
229 1.1% 77%  
230 11% 76%  
231 1.3% 65%  
232 1.1% 64%  
233 0.8% 63%  
234 1.2% 62%  
235 13% 61% Median
236 2% 48%  
237 2% 46%  
238 2% 44%  
239 2% 42%  
240 5% 40%  
241 1.4% 36%  
242 2% 34%  
243 0.8% 33%  
244 7% 32%  
245 2% 25%  
246 1.3% 23%  
247 1.0% 22%  
248 2% 21%  
249 2% 19%  
250 3% 18%  
251 1.1% 15%  
252 0.6% 14%  
253 4% 13%  
254 1.2% 9%  
255 0.3% 8%  
256 0.8% 8%  
257 1.0% 7%  
258 0.1% 6%  
259 3% 6%  
260 0.2% 3%  
261 0.3% 3%  
262 0.4% 3%  
263 0.8% 2%  
264 0.3% 1.5%  
265 0.1% 1.2%  
266 0.1% 1.1%  
267 0.1% 1.0%  
268 0.5% 0.9%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0% 0.3%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0.1% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0.2% 99.7%  
168 0.1% 99.6%  
169 0.1% 99.4%  
170 0.2% 99.3%  
171 0.7% 99.2%  
172 0.4% 98%  
173 0.3% 98%  
174 1.1% 98%  
175 2% 97%  
176 0.4% 95%  
177 0.8% 94%  
178 2% 93%  
179 5% 91%  
180 0.8% 86%  
181 4% 86%  
182 5% 82%  
183 5% 76%  
184 1.4% 71%  
185 2% 70%  
186 2% 67%  
187 13% 65% Median
188 2% 53%  
189 2% 51%  
190 1.1% 49%  
191 8% 48%  
192 2% 40%  
193 2% 38%  
194 1.4% 37%  
195 8% 35%  
196 3% 27%  
197 2% 25%  
198 1.1% 22%  
199 5% 21%  
200 1.5% 17%  
201 3% 15%  
202 2% 13%  
203 2% 10%  
204 2% 9%  
205 0.6% 6%  
206 0.7% 6%  
207 1.1% 5%  
208 0.8% 4%  
209 0.8% 3%  
210 0.2% 2%  
211 0.4% 2%  
212 0.2% 2%  
213 0.3% 2%  
214 0.1% 1.2%  
215 0.4% 1.1%  
216 0.1% 0.7%  
217 0.1% 0.6%  
218 0.1% 0.5%  
219 0% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.4%  
221 0.1% 0.3%  
222 0% 0.2% Last Result
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.3% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.5%  
118 0.1% 99.5%  
119 0.4% 99.4%  
120 0.2% 98.9%  
121 0.1% 98.8%  
122 0.5% 98.7%  
123 2% 98%  
124 1.0% 96%  
125 0% 95%  
126 0.6% 95%  
127 1.4% 95%  
128 0.6% 93%  
129 0.1% 93%  
130 1.2% 92%  
131 5% 91%  
132 1.1% 87%  
133 0.3% 86%  
134 0.8% 85%  
135 3% 85%  
136 0.6% 81%  
137 0.5% 80%  
138 1.1% 80%  
139 4% 79%  
140 0.2% 75%  
141 0.6% 75%  
142 1.0% 75%  
143 0.5% 74%  
144 0.4% 73%  
145 0.4% 73%  
146 0.8% 72%  
147 0.2% 72%  
148 0.1% 71%  
149 0.4% 71%  
150 0.1% 71%  
151 1.0% 71%  
152 0.2% 70%  
153 0.6% 70%  
154 0.2% 69%  
155 0.3% 69%  
156 1.1% 68%  
157 0.3% 67%  
158 4% 67%  
159 4% 63%  
160 3% 59%  
161 2% 57%  
162 2% 55%  
163 4% 52%  
164 0.4% 48%  
165 4% 48%  
166 1.4% 44%  
167 10% 42% Median
168 1.1% 32%  
169 6% 31%  
170 1.1% 25%  
171 3% 24%  
172 0.4% 21%  
173 6% 20%  
174 1.3% 14%  
175 0.2% 13%  
176 5% 13%  
177 0.7% 8%  
178 0.5% 7%  
179 2% 6%  
180 0.3% 5%  
181 1.1% 5%  
182 0.4% 3%  
183 1.4% 3%  
184 0.3% 2%  
185 0.6% 1.4%  
186 0.2% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.6%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations