Opinion Poll by Forsa, 4–8 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 32.5% 31.3–33.7% 31.0–34.0% 30.7–34.4% 30.1–34.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–15.9% 13.8–16.2% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 14.1–15.9% 13.8–16.2% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.3–10.8% 9.0–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.5–11.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.9–8.2% 6.7–8.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–9.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 249 239–257 235–260 234–263 229–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 109–121 106–123 104–124 101–129
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 115 108–121 105–124 105–126 102–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 69–82 69–84 67–86 65–88
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 58 52–62 51–64 50–66 48–68
Die Linke 69 53 50–58 48–59 46–60 45–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–51 40–52 39–53 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0.2% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 99.5%  
231 0.5% 99.4%  
232 0.5% 98.9%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 0.8% 98%  
235 3% 97%  
236 0.8% 94%  
237 0.3% 93%  
238 3% 93%  
239 3% 90%  
240 1.1% 87%  
241 2% 86%  
242 6% 84%  
243 2% 78%  
244 1.3% 76%  
245 6% 74%  
246 11% 69%  
247 2% 58%  
248 2% 56%  
249 11% 54% Median
250 2% 43%  
251 2% 41%  
252 5% 39%  
253 12% 34%  
254 2% 22%  
255 0.9% 21%  
256 7% 20%  
257 5% 12%  
258 0.4% 8%  
259 1.4% 7%  
260 3% 6%  
261 0.2% 3%  
262 0.2% 3%  
263 2% 3%  
264 0.4% 1.3%  
265 0.1% 0.9%  
266 0.1% 0.8%  
267 0.2% 0.6%  
268 0.1% 0.5%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.5%  
102 0.7% 99.3%  
103 0.7% 98.6%  
104 0.9% 98%  
105 1.2% 97%  
106 1.0% 96%  
107 2% 95%  
108 3% 93%  
109 5% 90%  
110 11% 85%  
111 12% 74%  
112 9% 62%  
113 12% 53% Median
114 3% 41%  
115 6% 37%  
116 3% 32%  
117 3% 29%  
118 4% 26%  
119 5% 22%  
120 5% 16%  
121 4% 11%  
122 3% 8%  
123 1.3% 5%  
124 1.4% 4%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.3%  
128 0.2% 0.8%  
129 0.2% 0.6%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 1.1% 99.6%  
103 0.5% 98.6%  
104 0.2% 98%  
105 3% 98%  
106 1.0% 95%  
107 2% 94%  
108 3% 91%  
109 1.3% 88%  
110 12% 87%  
111 15% 75%  
112 1.5% 59%  
113 1.2% 58%  
114 1.4% 57%  
115 13% 55% Median
116 23% 42%  
117 0.6% 20%  
118 0.7% 19%  
119 1.1% 18%  
120 4% 17%  
121 7% 14%  
122 2% 7%  
123 0.4% 5%  
124 1.5% 5%  
125 0.5% 4%  
126 2% 3%  
127 0.1% 2%  
128 0.6% 1.4%  
129 0.6% 0.9%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.4% 99.2%  
67 1.4% 98.8%  
68 2% 97%  
69 6% 96%  
70 3% 90%  
71 4% 87%  
72 11% 83%  
73 3% 71%  
74 7% 68%  
75 4% 61%  
76 4% 57%  
77 15% 54% Median
78 3% 39%  
79 10% 36%  
80 6% 26%  
81 6% 19%  
82 5% 14%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.5% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 1.2% 99.4%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 3% 97%  
52 6% 94%  
53 9% 89%  
54 9% 80%  
55 8% 70%  
56 4% 63%  
57 5% 58%  
58 14% 53% Median
59 14% 39%  
60 8% 25%  
61 5% 17%  
62 3% 12%  
63 3% 9%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.1% 4%  
66 1.5% 3%  
67 0.9% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.7%  
45 1.0% 99.5%  
46 2% 98%  
47 1.1% 97%  
48 1.4% 96%  
49 3% 94%  
50 13% 92%  
51 10% 78%  
52 8% 68%  
53 12% 61% Median
54 12% 48%  
55 9% 36%  
56 10% 28%  
57 4% 17%  
58 3% 13%  
59 6% 10%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.3% 2%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.4%  
64 0.5% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0% 98.6%  
7 0% 98.6%  
8 0% 98.6%  
9 0% 98.6%  
10 0% 98.6%  
11 0% 98.6%  
12 0% 98.6%  
13 0% 98.6%  
14 0% 98.6%  
15 0% 98.6%  
16 0% 98.6%  
17 0% 98.6%  
18 0% 98.6%  
19 0% 98.6%  
20 0% 98.6%  
21 0% 98.6%  
22 0% 98.6%  
23 0% 98.6%  
24 0% 98.6%  
25 0% 98.6%  
26 0% 98.6%  
27 0% 98.6%  
28 0% 98.6%  
29 0% 98.6%  
30 0% 98.6%  
31 0% 98.6%  
32 0% 98.6%  
33 0% 98.6%  
34 0% 98.6%  
35 0% 98.6%  
36 0% 98.6%  
37 0% 98.6%  
38 0.4% 98.6%  
39 1.4% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 5% 95%  
42 4% 90%  
43 6% 85%  
44 8% 80%  
45 10% 71%  
46 18% 62% Median
47 10% 44%  
48 6% 33%  
49 10% 27%  
50 6% 17%  
51 3% 11%  
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.4% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 534 100% 525–541 524–543 522–547 518–569
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 466 100% 455–472 452–477 451–479 441–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 466 100% 456–474 452–476 450–478 445–482
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 428 100% 418–437 415–439 411–441 404–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 419 100% 410–428 407–431 405–436 401–449
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 419 100% 409–430 407–432 404–435 401–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 382 100% 373–391 369–394 366–397 363–411
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 351 36% 342–360 336–362 335–366 321–368
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 281 0% 272–291 270–294 268–298 263–305
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 273 0% 265–283 262–286 258–288 244–292
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 227 0% 220–236 218–240 215–243 211–249
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 161–176 158–178 156–180 152–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 159 0% 153–168 150–170 147–171 120–176

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 99.9%  
513 0% 99.9%  
514 0.1% 99.9%  
515 0% 99.8%  
516 0.1% 99.7%  
517 0.1% 99.7%  
518 0.1% 99.5%  
519 0.1% 99.5%  
520 0.9% 99.4%  
521 0.1% 98%  
522 2% 98%  
523 1.2% 97%  
524 4% 95%  
525 5% 92%  
526 2% 87%  
527 10% 85%  
528 3% 75%  
529 9% 73%  
530 2% 63%  
531 5% 62%  
532 1.1% 57%  
533 2% 56%  
534 5% 54%  
535 4% 49% Median
536 8% 45%  
537 3% 37%  
538 17% 34%  
539 1.2% 17%  
540 4% 16%  
541 5% 12%  
542 2% 7%  
543 1.0% 5%  
544 0.4% 4%  
545 0.7% 4%  
546 0.4% 3%  
547 0.3% 3%  
548 0.4% 2%  
549 0.2% 2%  
550 0.1% 2%  
551 0.1% 2%  
552 0% 2%  
553 0.1% 2%  
554 0% 1.5%  
555 0% 1.5%  
556 0% 1.4%  
557 0% 1.4%  
558 0% 1.4%  
559 0% 1.4%  
560 0% 1.4%  
561 0% 1.4%  
562 0% 1.4%  
563 0% 1.4%  
564 0% 1.4%  
565 0% 1.3%  
566 0% 1.3%  
567 0.3% 1.3%  
568 0.1% 1.0%  
569 0.5% 0.9%  
570 0.1% 0.4%  
571 0% 0.3%  
572 0% 0.3%  
573 0.1% 0.3%  
574 0.1% 0.3%  
575 0% 0.2%  
576 0% 0.2%  
577 0% 0.2%  
578 0% 0.1%  
579 0% 0.1%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.9%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0.4% 99.8%  
442 0.1% 99.4%  
443 0% 99.3%  
444 0% 99.3%  
445 0.4% 99.2%  
446 0.1% 98.9%  
447 0.2% 98.8%  
448 0.2% 98.7%  
449 0.4% 98%  
450 0.4% 98%  
451 1.2% 98%  
452 2% 96%  
453 2% 94%  
454 1.2% 92%  
455 4% 91%  
456 4% 87%  
457 1.0% 83%  
458 2% 82%  
459 4% 80%  
460 2% 76%  
461 2% 74%  
462 7% 73%  
463 4% 65%  
464 2% 61%  
465 5% 59%  
466 5% 54% Median
467 3% 50%  
468 10% 47%  
469 5% 37%  
470 6% 32%  
471 6% 26%  
472 10% 20%  
473 1.1% 10%  
474 1.0% 9%  
475 2% 8%  
476 1.0% 6%  
477 0.7% 5%  
478 1.5% 4%  
479 0.6% 3% Last Result
480 0.8% 2%  
481 0.2% 2%  
482 0.5% 1.3%  
483 0.2% 0.8%  
484 0.3% 0.6%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0.1% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.8%  
444 0.2% 99.8%  
445 0.4% 99.6%  
446 0.2% 99.2%  
447 0.3% 99.1%  
448 0.4% 98.8%  
449 0.8% 98%  
450 0.2% 98%  
451 1.0% 97%  
452 2% 96%  
453 0.3% 94%  
454 1.4% 94%  
455 2% 93%  
456 2% 91%  
457 3% 89%  
458 2% 86%  
459 4% 84%  
460 5% 80%  
461 2% 75%  
462 3% 73%  
463 5% 69%  
464 8% 64%  
465 2% 56%  
466 6% 53%  
467 6% 47%  
468 4% 41% Median
469 5% 37%  
470 9% 32%  
471 2% 23%  
472 2% 21%  
473 1.1% 19%  
474 10% 18%  
475 2% 8%  
476 2% 7%  
477 2% 5%  
478 0.5% 3%  
479 0.2% 2%  
480 0.7% 2%  
481 0.6% 1.3%  
482 0.3% 0.7%  
483 0.1% 0.4%  
484 0.1% 0.3%  
485 0.1% 0.2%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
396 0% 100%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.8%  
402 0% 99.8%  
403 0% 99.8%  
404 0.5% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.3%  
406 0% 99.2%  
407 0.4% 99.2%  
408 0.1% 98.8%  
409 0.4% 98.6%  
410 0.4% 98%  
411 0.5% 98%  
412 0.8% 97%  
413 0.4% 97%  
414 0.6% 96%  
415 2% 96%  
416 1.4% 94%  
417 2% 93%  
418 1.2% 90%  
419 2% 89%  
420 6% 87% Last Result
421 2% 81%  
422 4% 79%  
423 4% 75%  
424 4% 71%  
425 4% 67%  
426 4% 63%  
427 2% 58%  
428 6% 56%  
429 2% 50%  
430 11% 48% Median
431 5% 37%  
432 5% 31%  
433 5% 27%  
434 5% 22%  
435 2% 17%  
436 0.8% 14%  
437 7% 14%  
438 1.1% 6%  
439 1.0% 5%  
440 1.3% 4%  
441 0.5% 3%  
442 1.0% 2%  
443 0.2% 1.5%  
444 0.2% 1.3%  
445 0.4% 1.0%  
446 0.4% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.4% 99.6%  
402 0.4% 99.2%  
403 0.3% 98.9%  
404 1.0% 98.5%  
405 0.3% 98%  
406 0.8% 97%  
407 2% 96%  
408 1.0% 94%  
409 2% 93%  
410 3% 91%  
411 2% 88%  
412 2% 86%  
413 7% 84%  
414 1.0% 77%  
415 3% 76%  
416 8% 74%  
417 1.4% 65%  
418 11% 64%  
419 7% 53%  
420 3% 46%  
421 3% 43%  
422 4% 41% Median
423 2% 36%  
424 10% 35%  
425 1.1% 25%  
426 1.5% 23%  
427 1.5% 22%  
428 11% 21%  
429 2% 10%  
430 1.2% 8%  
431 2% 6%  
432 0.7% 4%  
433 0.7% 4%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.2% 3%  
436 0.5% 3%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.1% 2%  
440 0.2% 2%  
441 0.1% 1.5%  
442 0% 1.4%  
443 0.1% 1.4%  
444 0% 1.3%  
445 0.3% 1.3%  
446 0% 0.9%  
447 0% 0.9%  
448 0% 0.9%  
449 0.5% 0.9%  
450 0% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.4%  
452 0% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
396 0% 100%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
400 0.2% 99.7%  
401 0.3% 99.5%  
402 0.1% 99.2%  
403 0.2% 99.1%  
404 3% 98.9%  
405 0.1% 96%  
406 0.6% 96%  
407 1.5% 95%  
408 3% 94%  
409 1.0% 91%  
410 1.4% 90%  
411 5% 88%  
412 2% 83%  
413 7% 81%  
414 2% 74%  
415 4% 72%  
416 2% 68%  
417 8% 66%  
418 2% 58%  
419 6% 56%  
420 5% 50% Median
421 0.8% 45%  
422 10% 44%  
423 5% 33%  
424 2% 28%  
425 1.1% 26%  
426 8% 25%  
427 2% 17%  
428 1.1% 15%  
429 3% 13%  
430 4% 11%  
431 2% 7%  
432 0.7% 5%  
433 1.4% 5%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.7% 3%  
436 0.5% 2%  
437 0.1% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.2% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.4% 1.4%  
442 0.1% 1.0%  
443 0% 0.9%  
444 0% 0.9%  
445 0.3% 0.8%  
446 0% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.5%  
448 0% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0% 0.3%  
451 0% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100% Last Result
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0.1% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.6%  
363 0.3% 99.5%  
364 0.3% 99.3%  
365 0.9% 99.0%  
366 0.8% 98%  
367 1.3% 97%  
368 0.4% 96%  
369 0.8% 96%  
370 0.6% 95%  
371 2% 94%  
372 1.4% 92%  
373 7% 90%  
374 2% 83%  
375 4% 81%  
376 2% 77%  
377 4% 75%  
378 3% 71%  
379 9% 68%  
380 1.1% 59%  
381 4% 58%  
382 6% 54%  
383 2% 48%  
384 13% 46% Median
385 4% 34%  
386 6% 30%  
387 2% 24%  
388 0.7% 22%  
389 2% 21%  
390 0.9% 19%  
391 11% 18%  
392 1.1% 7%  
393 1.0% 6%  
394 0.4% 5%  
395 1.0% 5%  
396 0.4% 4%  
397 1.2% 4%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.1% 2%  
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.3% 2%  
402 0.2% 2%  
403 0.1% 1.4%  
404 0.4% 1.3%  
405 0.1% 0.9%  
406 0% 0.8%  
407 0.1% 0.8%  
408 0% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.7%  
410 0% 0.6%  
411 0.4% 0.6%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.5% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.4%  
323 0.3% 99.4%  
324 0% 99.1%  
325 0% 99.0%  
326 0% 99.0% Last Result
327 0.1% 99.0%  
328 0.1% 98.9%  
329 0.1% 98.8%  
330 0.2% 98.7%  
331 0.1% 98.5%  
332 0% 98%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.2% 98%  
335 0.5% 98%  
336 3% 97%  
337 0.7% 94%  
338 0.2% 93%  
339 0.5% 93%  
340 0.2% 93%  
341 0.3% 92%  
342 3% 92%  
343 7% 90%  
344 5% 83%  
345 4% 78%  
346 2% 74%  
347 2% 72%  
348 1.1% 70%  
349 0.9% 69%  
350 5% 68%  
351 14% 64%  
352 5% 50%  
353 5% 44% Median
354 4% 39%  
355 0.5% 36% Majority
356 1.4% 35%  
357 2% 34%  
358 12% 32%  
359 4% 20%  
360 8% 16%  
361 3% 8%  
362 0.5% 5%  
363 0.1% 5%  
364 0.3% 5%  
365 1.3% 4%  
366 1.1% 3%  
367 1.3% 2%  
368 0.5% 0.8%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.4% 99.8%  
264 0.4% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.0%  
266 0.2% 98.7%  
267 1.0% 98.5%  
268 0.5% 98%  
269 1.3% 97%  
270 1.0% 96%  
271 1.1% 95%  
272 7% 94%  
273 0.8% 86%  
274 2% 86%  
275 5% 83%  
276 5% 78%  
277 5% 73%  
278 5% 69%  
279 11% 63%  
280 2% 52%  
281 6% 50% Median
282 2% 44%  
283 4% 42%  
284 4% 37%  
285 4% 33%  
286 4% 29%  
287 4% 25%  
288 2% 21%  
289 6% 19% Last Result
290 2% 13%  
291 1.2% 11%  
292 2% 10%  
293 1.4% 7%  
294 2% 6%  
295 0.6% 4%  
296 0.4% 4%  
297 0.8% 3%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.1% 1.4%  
302 0.4% 1.2%  
303 0% 0.8%  
304 0.1% 0.8%  
305 0.5% 0.7%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0.1% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.3% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.3%  
246 0% 99.3%  
247 0% 99.2%  
248 0.4% 99.2%  
249 0.1% 98.8%  
250 0% 98.7%  
251 0% 98.7%  
252 0.1% 98.6%  
253 0.1% 98.6%  
254 0.1% 98%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.3% 97%  
260 0.7% 97%  
261 0.7% 96%  
262 2% 96%  
263 1.3% 94%  
264 0.6% 93%  
265 5% 92%  
266 1.2% 88%  
267 2% 86%  
268 9% 84%  
269 4% 75%  
270 2% 71%  
271 6% 69%  
272 9% 63%  
273 5% 54%  
274 0.3% 49% Median
275 8% 49%  
276 10% 41%  
277 4% 31%  
278 4% 28%  
279 2% 24%  
280 3% 22%  
281 6% 19%  
282 2% 13%  
283 1.0% 10%  
284 0.9% 9%  
285 3% 8%  
286 2% 5%  
287 0.9% 3%  
288 0.6% 3%  
289 0.7% 2%  
290 0.4% 1.3%  
291 0.2% 0.9%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0.1% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.2% 99.7%  
212 0.2% 99.5%  
213 0.5% 99.3%  
214 0.6% 98.8%  
215 0.8% 98%  
216 0.3% 97%  
217 2% 97%  
218 0.9% 95%  
219 1.1% 94%  
220 4% 93% Last Result
221 2% 90%  
222 8% 88%  
223 1.4% 80%  
224 11% 78%  
225 4% 67%  
226 10% 63%  
227 11% 53%  
228 3% 42% Median
229 3% 39%  
230 4% 36%  
231 2% 31%  
232 5% 29%  
233 3% 24%  
234 7% 21%  
235 0.8% 14%  
236 4% 13%  
237 2% 10%  
238 2% 8%  
239 1.0% 6%  
240 0.6% 5%  
241 0.6% 4%  
242 1.1% 4%  
243 0.3% 3%  
244 0.8% 2%  
245 0.2% 2%  
246 0.3% 1.5%  
247 0.1% 1.2%  
248 0.5% 1.0%  
249 0.1% 0.5%  
250 0.1% 0.4%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.4% 99.5%  
154 0.7% 99.0%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 0.9% 98%  
157 1.4% 97%  
158 0.7% 95%  
159 2% 95%  
160 3% 93%  
161 2% 90%  
162 8% 88%  
163 10% 80%  
164 4% 70%  
165 12% 66%  
166 6% 53% Median
167 9% 47%  
168 3% 38%  
169 4% 35%  
170 3% 31%  
171 4% 28%  
172 2% 25%  
173 2% 23%  
174 7% 21%  
175 0.6% 14%  
176 5% 14%  
177 2% 8%  
178 2% 6%  
179 1.4% 4%  
180 1.1% 3%  
181 0.5% 2%  
182 0.2% 1.3%  
183 0.3% 1.0%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.8%  
119 0% 99.7%  
120 0.4% 99.7%  
121 0% 99.3%  
122 0.4% 99.2%  
123 0% 98.9%  
124 0% 98.9%  
125 0% 98.8%  
126 0.1% 98.8%  
127 0% 98.7%  
128 0% 98.7%  
129 0% 98.7%  
130 0% 98.7%  
131 0% 98.7%  
132 0% 98.6%  
133 0% 98.6%  
134 0% 98.6%  
135 0% 98.6%  
136 0% 98.6%  
137 0% 98.6%  
138 0% 98.6%  
139 0% 98.6%  
140 0% 98.5%  
141 0% 98.5%  
142 0.1% 98.5%  
143 0.2% 98%  
144 0.2% 98%  
145 0.1% 98%  
146 0.4% 98%  
147 0.8% 98%  
148 0.4% 97%  
149 1.0% 96%  
150 0.4% 95%  
151 2% 95%  
152 1.4% 93%  
153 2% 92%  
154 5% 89%  
155 5% 84%  
156 9% 79%  
157 6% 70%  
158 12% 64%  
159 3% 52% Median
160 10% 49%  
161 4% 39%  
162 4% 35%  
163 4% 31%  
164 4% 28%  
165 4% 24%  
166 7% 20%  
167 3% 13%  
168 2% 10%  
169 1.0% 8%  
170 4% 7%  
171 1.4% 4%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.4% 2%  
174 0.7% 2%  
175 0.2% 1.0%  
176 0.3% 0.8%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.2% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations