Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 8–11 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.5% 28.2–30.8% 27.9–31.2% 27.6–31.5% 27.0–32.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 15.0–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.1–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 223 215–234 213–237 210–239 206–244
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 126 118–134 116–135 114–138 110–141
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 107 101–114 99–115 97–117 94–122
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–90 76–93 75–94 71–97
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 59 57–68 55–69 54–70 50–72
Die Linke 69 57 52–64 51–64 49–66 47–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 50 45–55 43–56 42–57 40–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.7%  
206 0.2% 99.7%  
207 0.3% 99.4%  
208 0.3% 99.1%  
209 0.5% 98.8%  
210 1.1% 98%  
211 0.8% 97%  
212 1.2% 96%  
213 1.5% 95%  
214 1.4% 94%  
215 4% 92%  
216 4% 89%  
217 5% 85%  
218 6% 80%  
219 2% 74%  
220 6% 72%  
221 7% 66%  
222 5% 59%  
223 5% 54% Median
224 4% 49%  
225 3% 46%  
226 8% 42%  
227 4% 34%  
228 3% 30%  
229 5% 27%  
230 2% 23%  
231 3% 20%  
232 2% 17%  
233 5% 15%  
234 2% 10%  
235 1.5% 8%  
236 1.3% 7%  
237 2% 6%  
238 0.5% 3%  
239 1.3% 3%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.3% 1.3%  
242 0.3% 1.0%  
243 0.2% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.2% 0.4%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.4% 99.5%  
112 0.3% 99.1%  
113 0.5% 98.8%  
114 1.4% 98%  
115 2% 97%  
116 3% 95%  
117 2% 92%  
118 1.3% 90%  
119 3% 89%  
120 6% 86%  
121 9% 80%  
122 4% 71%  
123 3% 67%  
124 7% 64%  
125 7% 57%  
126 8% 51% Median
127 6% 43%  
128 9% 36%  
129 7% 28%  
130 4% 21%  
131 1.4% 17%  
132 4% 16%  
133 2% 12%  
134 5% 10%  
135 2% 6%  
136 0.5% 4%  
137 0.8% 3%  
138 0.3% 3%  
139 1.3% 2%  
140 0.2% 0.9%  
141 0.4% 0.7%  
142 0% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.5% 99.5%  
95 0.8% 99.1%  
96 0.4% 98%  
97 0.4% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 1.4% 96%  
100 1.1% 95%  
101 6% 94%  
102 3% 88%  
103 2% 85%  
104 7% 82%  
105 11% 76%  
106 5% 64%  
107 15% 59% Median
108 3% 44%  
109 9% 41%  
110 5% 31%  
111 5% 26%  
112 8% 22%  
113 3% 14%  
114 1.4% 10%  
115 5% 9%  
116 0.6% 3%  
117 0.2% 3%  
118 0.6% 2%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 0.2% 1.2%  
121 0.2% 1.0%  
122 0.5% 0.8%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0.2% 0.3%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 0.7% 98.6%  
74 0.3% 98%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 3% 92%  
78 3% 89%  
79 4% 86%  
80 4% 82%  
81 4% 77%  
82 12% 73%  
83 9% 62%  
84 3% 53% Median
85 4% 50%  
86 17% 46%  
87 7% 29%  
88 2% 23%  
89 5% 20%  
90 7% 15%  
91 1.2% 9%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.1% 6%  
94 3% 5% Last Result
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.3%  
97 0.4% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.1%  
52 0.5% 98%  
53 0.3% 98%  
54 0.9% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 2% 94%  
57 6% 92%  
58 26% 86%  
59 13% 60% Median
60 9% 48%  
61 6% 39%  
62 7% 32%  
63 1.4% 25%  
64 0.9% 24%  
65 2% 23%  
66 4% 21%  
67 4% 17%  
68 4% 13%  
69 5% 9%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.6% 1.4%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.7% 99.3%  
49 1.4% 98.7%  
50 2% 97%  
51 5% 95%  
52 4% 91%  
53 6% 87%  
54 11% 81%  
55 4% 70%  
56 12% 66%  
57 5% 54% Median
58 8% 49%  
59 11% 42%  
60 5% 31%  
61 3% 26%  
62 11% 23%  
63 2% 12%  
64 6% 11%  
65 1.0% 5%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 99.2%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 3% 97%  
44 3% 94%  
45 4% 91%  
46 5% 87%  
47 9% 82%  
48 14% 73%  
49 6% 59%  
50 12% 53% Median
51 8% 41%  
52 4% 33%  
53 8% 28%  
54 10% 20%  
55 3% 10%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.7% 1.2%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 517 100% 509–527 508–530 504–533 500–536
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 461 100% 451–470 451–474 447–476 442–479
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 443 100% 431–451 430–454 428–456 423–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 419 100% 409–429 406–432 403–434 398–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 408 100% 403–422 400–425 397–427 391–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 393 100% 381–402 380–406 377–409 374–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 370 97% 359–380 356–383 354–385 349–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 334 0.7% 325–345 322–348 319–350 315–355
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 290 0% 280–300 277–303 275–306 270–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 283 0% 273–293 269–295 267–297 263–302
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 233 0% 224–241 221–245 219–248 214–252
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 165 0% 157–171 154–175 153–177 148–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 157 0% 149–164 146–167 145–169 140–174

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 99.9%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.8%  
499 0.1% 99.7%  
500 0.4% 99.6%  
501 0.1% 99.2%  
502 0.6% 99.1%  
503 0.8% 98%  
504 0.7% 98%  
505 0.6% 97%  
506 0.7% 96%  
507 0.5% 96%  
508 2% 95%  
509 4% 93%  
510 1.4% 89%  
511 10% 88%  
512 1.1% 78%  
513 9% 77%  
514 4% 68%  
515 9% 65% Median
516 2% 56%  
517 6% 54%  
518 8% 48%  
519 3% 39%  
520 3% 37%  
521 9% 34%  
522 3% 25%  
523 3% 22%  
524 3% 19%  
525 3% 17%  
526 1.3% 14%  
527 3% 13%  
528 0.5% 10%  
529 3% 9%  
530 2% 6%  
531 1.0% 5%  
532 0.5% 4%  
533 2% 3%  
534 0.5% 1.5%  
535 0.2% 1.0%  
536 0.5% 0.8%  
537 0% 0.3%  
538 0.1% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.7%  
441 0.1% 99.6%  
442 0.2% 99.6%  
443 0.6% 99.3%  
444 0.4% 98.7%  
445 0.3% 98%  
446 0.4% 98%  
447 0.3% 98%  
448 0.2% 97%  
449 0.7% 97%  
450 0.5% 96%  
451 6% 96%  
452 8% 90%  
453 3% 81%  
454 6% 79%  
455 9% 73%  
456 2% 64%  
457 1.0% 62%  
458 0.7% 61% Median
459 5% 61%  
460 5% 56%  
461 10% 51%  
462 8% 41%  
463 5% 33%  
464 5% 28%  
465 2% 23%  
466 2% 21%  
467 5% 19%  
468 2% 14%  
469 0.8% 13%  
470 3% 12%  
471 1.3% 9%  
472 1.0% 8%  
473 1.1% 7%  
474 2% 5%  
475 0.7% 4%  
476 2% 3%  
477 0.1% 0.8%  
478 0.1% 0.6%  
479 0.1% 0.5%  
480 0.1% 0.4%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0.1% 0.2%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0.1% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.3% 99.6%  
424 0.1% 99.3%  
425 0.3% 99.2%  
426 0.3% 99.0%  
427 0.3% 98.6%  
428 1.0% 98%  
429 1.3% 97%  
430 2% 96%  
431 4% 94%  
432 3% 90%  
433 1.0% 86%  
434 4% 85%  
435 6% 82%  
436 1.2% 76%  
437 5% 74%  
438 5% 69%  
439 2% 65% Median
440 3% 63%  
441 4% 60%  
442 3% 56%  
443 10% 53%  
444 3% 43%  
445 4% 41%  
446 10% 37%  
447 4% 28%  
448 2% 23%  
449 8% 22%  
450 2% 14%  
451 2% 12%  
452 2% 9%  
453 1.2% 7%  
454 0.9% 6%  
455 2% 5%  
456 0.2% 3%  
457 0.5% 2%  
458 0.6% 2%  
459 0.3% 1.2%  
460 0.1% 1.0%  
461 0.4% 0.8%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0.2% 0.4%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0.1% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0.2% 99.8%  
398 0.1% 99.6%  
399 0.2% 99.4%  
400 0.2% 99.3%  
401 0.4% 99.1%  
402 0.3% 98.7%  
403 2% 98%  
404 0.1% 97%  
405 0.9% 96%  
406 0.9% 96%  
407 1.0% 95%  
408 0.9% 94%  
409 7% 93%  
410 2% 86%  
411 3% 84%  
412 1.3% 81%  
413 0.7% 80%  
414 14% 79%  
415 4% 65%  
416 2% 61% Median
417 4% 60%  
418 2% 56%  
419 4% 54%  
420 12% 50% Last Result
421 4% 38%  
422 4% 34%  
423 2% 30%  
424 6% 28%  
425 1.4% 22%  
426 4% 20%  
427 2% 16%  
428 2% 14%  
429 2% 12%  
430 1.0% 10%  
431 4% 9%  
432 1.0% 5%  
433 0.9% 4%  
434 0.7% 3%  
435 0.4% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 1.0% 2%  
438 0.2% 0.7%  
439 0.1% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0.1% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0% 99.7%  
390 0.1% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.5%  
392 0.1% 99.5%  
393 0.2% 99.4%  
394 0.5% 99.2%  
395 0.5% 98.7%  
396 0.3% 98%  
397 0.8% 98%  
398 0.8% 97%  
399 1.0% 96%  
400 0.5% 95%  
401 2% 95%  
402 0.9% 93%  
403 3% 92%  
404 10% 89%  
405 8% 79%  
406 11% 71%  
407 4% 60%  
408 13% 56% Median
409 1.5% 43%  
410 3% 42%  
411 1.5% 39%  
412 2% 38%  
413 3% 35%  
414 7% 32%  
415 5% 25%  
416 1.1% 21%  
417 3% 20%  
418 1.3% 17%  
419 2% 15%  
420 0.4% 13%  
421 2% 13%  
422 2% 10%  
423 0.9% 8%  
424 1.5% 7%  
425 1.5% 6%  
426 1.2% 4%  
427 0.7% 3%  
428 1.4% 2%  
429 0.4% 1.1%  
430 0.3% 0.7%  
431 0% 0.4%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.6%  
374 0.8% 99.5%  
375 0.2% 98.7%  
376 0.2% 98%  
377 0.7% 98%  
378 0.6% 97%  
379 1.2% 97%  
380 1.2% 96%  
381 5% 95%  
382 0.6% 89%  
383 5% 89%  
384 4% 83%  
385 1.4% 79%  
386 1.0% 78%  
387 6% 77%  
388 0.6% 70%  
389 6% 70% Median
390 3% 64%  
391 5% 61%  
392 1.5% 55%  
393 8% 54%  
394 3% 45%  
395 9% 43%  
396 9% 34%  
397 4% 26%  
398 3% 22%  
399 5% 19% Last Result
400 2% 14%  
401 1.5% 12%  
402 1.2% 10%  
403 1.3% 9%  
404 2% 8%  
405 0.7% 6%  
406 2% 5%  
407 0.4% 4%  
408 0.2% 3%  
409 2% 3%  
410 0.5% 1.3%  
411 0.3% 0.8%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.2% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100% Last Result
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.2% 99.7%  
350 0.3% 99.5%  
351 0.4% 99.2%  
352 0.9% 98.9%  
353 0.2% 98%  
354 0.7% 98%  
355 0.1% 97% Majority
356 4% 97%  
357 0.2% 93%  
358 2% 93%  
359 0.3% 90%  
360 7% 90%  
361 0.3% 83%  
362 6% 83%  
363 3% 77%  
364 0.9% 73%  
365 2% 73%  
366 12% 70% Median
367 2% 58%  
368 3% 56%  
369 0.5% 54%  
370 15% 53%  
371 0.7% 38%  
372 6% 37%  
373 6% 31%  
374 2% 25%  
375 3% 23%  
376 4% 20%  
377 4% 16%  
378 1.1% 13%  
379 0.4% 12%  
380 4% 11%  
381 0.7% 7%  
382 2% 7%  
383 1.2% 5%  
384 1.3% 4%  
385 0.7% 3%  
386 0.5% 2%  
387 0.2% 1.3%  
388 0.3% 1.1%  
389 0.2% 0.8%  
390 0.2% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.9% 99.3%  
317 0.1% 98%  
318 0.4% 98%  
319 0.6% 98%  
320 0.8% 97%  
321 0.4% 96%  
322 4% 96%  
323 0.9% 92%  
324 0.6% 91%  
325 1.4% 90%  
326 1.5% 89% Last Result
327 5% 88%  
328 10% 83%  
329 1.4% 73%  
330 1.2% 72%  
331 5% 70%  
332 7% 66% Median
333 4% 58%  
334 10% 54%  
335 0.9% 45%  
336 4% 44%  
337 3% 39%  
338 5% 36%  
339 5% 31%  
340 3% 26%  
341 1.5% 23%  
342 5% 22%  
343 3% 17%  
344 3% 14%  
345 2% 11%  
346 2% 9%  
347 0.8% 7%  
348 2% 6%  
349 0.9% 5%  
350 1.3% 4%  
351 0.7% 2%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.2% 1.4%  
354 0.5% 1.2%  
355 0.2% 0.7% Majority
356 0.2% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.5%  
272 1.0% 99.3%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.7% 98%  
276 0.9% 97%  
277 1.0% 96%  
278 4% 95%  
279 1.0% 91%  
280 2% 90%  
281 2% 88%  
282 2% 86%  
283 4% 84%  
284 1.4% 80%  
285 6% 78%  
286 2% 72%  
287 4% 70%  
288 4% 66%  
289 12% 62% Last Result
290 4% 50% Median
291 2% 46%  
292 4% 44%  
293 2% 40%  
294 4% 39%  
295 14% 35%  
296 0.7% 21%  
297 1.3% 20%  
298 3% 19%  
299 2% 16%  
300 7% 14%  
301 0.9% 7%  
302 1.0% 6%  
303 0.9% 5%  
304 0.9% 4%  
305 0.1% 4%  
306 2% 3%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.4% 1.3%  
309 0.2% 0.9%  
310 0.2% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.2% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0.1% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.5% 99.5%  
264 0.2% 99.0%  
265 0.3% 98.8%  
266 0.4% 98.5%  
267 0.7% 98%  
268 0.3% 97%  
269 3% 97%  
270 0.7% 94%  
271 2% 93%  
272 1.1% 91%  
273 3% 90%  
274 1.3% 88%  
275 2% 86%  
276 6% 85%  
277 5% 79%  
278 1.3% 74%  
279 9% 73%  
280 4% 64%  
281 3% 60%  
282 3% 57%  
283 9% 54% Median
284 2% 44%  
285 9% 42%  
286 1.3% 33%  
287 8% 32%  
288 1.4% 24%  
289 6% 23%  
290 2% 17%  
291 1.3% 16%  
292 4% 14%  
293 1.2% 11%  
294 4% 9%  
295 1.2% 5%  
296 0.6% 4%  
297 1.3% 4%  
298 0.5% 2%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.8% 2% Last Result
301 0.2% 0.9%  
302 0.2% 0.7%  
303 0.2% 0.5%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0.1% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0.2% 99.8%  
213 0% 99.7%  
214 0.5% 99.6%  
215 0.1% 99.2%  
216 1.2% 99.1%  
217 0.2% 98%  
218 0.1% 98%  
219 1.3% 98%  
220 0.4% 96% Last Result
221 3% 96%  
222 0.3% 93%  
223 2% 92%  
224 4% 91%  
225 3% 87%  
226 4% 84%  
227 3% 80%  
228 3% 77%  
229 8% 74%  
230 2% 67%  
231 10% 65%  
232 3% 55%  
233 12% 53% Median
234 2% 40%  
235 2% 38%  
236 6% 36%  
237 2% 31%  
238 8% 29%  
239 2% 21%  
240 1.1% 19%  
241 9% 18%  
242 0.8% 10%  
243 2% 9%  
244 1.1% 7%  
245 0.8% 5%  
246 0.8% 5%  
247 1.2% 4%  
248 0.9% 3%  
249 0.7% 2%  
250 0.5% 1.1%  
251 0.1% 0.6%  
252 0.1% 0.5%  
253 0.1% 0.5%  
254 0.1% 0.4%  
255 0.2% 0.3%  
256 0.1% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0.1% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.3% 99.6%  
149 0.5% 99.3%  
150 0.4% 98.7%  
151 0.2% 98%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 1.0% 98%  
154 2% 97%  
155 2% 95%  
156 2% 93%  
157 0.7% 91%  
158 7% 90%  
159 2% 83%  
160 8% 80%  
161 2% 72%  
162 8% 70%  
163 0.8% 62%  
164 4% 62% Median
165 9% 58%  
166 7% 49%  
167 5% 42%  
168 7% 36%  
169 7% 29%  
170 0.7% 23%  
171 13% 22%  
172 0.4% 9%  
173 2% 8%  
174 0.4% 6%  
175 1.4% 6%  
176 1.0% 4%  
177 2% 4%  
178 0.6% 2%  
179 0.1% 1.2%  
180 0.1% 1.1%  
181 0.3% 0.9%  
182 0.4% 0.7%  
183 0% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0.4% 99.5%  
142 0.3% 99.0%  
143 0.3% 98.7%  
144 0.8% 98%  
145 1.2% 98%  
146 1.5% 96%  
147 1.1% 95%  
148 2% 94%  
149 3% 92%  
150 2% 90%  
151 2% 87%  
152 4% 85%  
153 3% 81%  
154 9% 78%  
155 9% 69%  
156 9% 60%  
157 3% 52% Median
158 3% 49%  
159 9% 46%  
160 8% 37%  
161 5% 29%  
162 7% 24%  
163 6% 17%  
164 1.4% 11%  
165 2% 10%  
166 1.3% 8%  
167 3% 7%  
168 0.9% 4%  
169 0.7% 3%  
170 0.8% 2%  
171 0.4% 1.2%  
172 0.2% 0.9%  
173 0.1% 0.6%  
174 0.1% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations