Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 15–18 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.0% 28.7–31.3% 28.4–31.7% 28.1–32.0% 27.5–32.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 17.0–19.1% 16.7–19.5% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.1–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.5–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 228 219–240 217–241 213–245 209–251
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 139 130–147 128–149 127–152 121–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 108 99–113 97–115 96–119 92–122
Alternative für Deutschland 94 79 74–86 71–88 70–90 68–95
Die Linke 69 57 51–62 51–64 49–66 47–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 49–60 47–61 46–62 44–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 41–51 39–53 0–54 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0% 99.7%  
209 0.2% 99.6%  
210 0.1% 99.4%  
211 0.6% 99.3%  
212 1.1% 98.7%  
213 0.3% 98%  
214 0.8% 97%  
215 0.4% 97%  
216 0.8% 96%  
217 2% 95%  
218 3% 94%  
219 2% 90%  
220 2% 88%  
221 8% 86%  
222 1.3% 78%  
223 7% 77%  
224 3% 70%  
225 8% 66%  
226 1.4% 58%  
227 3% 57%  
228 6% 53% Median
229 11% 48%  
230 3% 37%  
231 4% 33%  
232 4% 30%  
233 1.2% 26%  
234 3% 25%  
235 4% 22%  
236 3% 17%  
237 0.9% 15%  
238 2% 14%  
239 1.2% 11%  
240 4% 10%  
241 2% 7%  
242 0.5% 4%  
243 0.4% 4%  
244 0.5% 3%  
245 1.3% 3%  
246 0.3% 1.4%  
247 0.3% 1.1%  
248 0.1% 0.8%  
249 0.1% 0.7%  
250 0.1% 0.6%  
251 0.2% 0.6%  
252 0.2% 0.4%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0.1% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.3% 99.5%  
123 0.3% 99.2%  
124 0.3% 98.8%  
125 0.5% 98.5%  
126 0.3% 98%  
127 1.1% 98%  
128 2% 97%  
129 3% 95%  
130 6% 92%  
131 4% 86%  
132 3% 82%  
133 4% 79%  
134 2% 75%  
135 2% 73%  
136 3% 71%  
137 7% 68%  
138 7% 61%  
139 4% 54% Median
140 8% 49%  
141 14% 41%  
142 9% 28%  
143 3% 19%  
144 3% 16%  
145 2% 14%  
146 1.1% 11%  
147 1.3% 10%  
148 3% 9%  
149 2% 6%  
150 1.0% 4%  
151 0.7% 3%  
152 1.5% 3%  
153 0.5% 1.2%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.5%  
94 0.9% 99.3%  
95 0.8% 98%  
96 1.1% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 3% 94%  
99 2% 91%  
100 4% 90%  
101 4% 86%  
102 3% 82%  
103 3% 79%  
104 5% 76%  
105 11% 72%  
106 4% 61%  
107 3% 57%  
108 5% 54% Median
109 13% 49%  
110 10% 35%  
111 7% 26%  
112 5% 19%  
113 4% 14%  
114 2% 10%  
115 2% 7%  
116 0.8% 5%  
117 0.8% 4%  
118 0.5% 3%  
119 0.4% 3%  
120 1.3% 2%  
121 0.1% 0.9%  
122 0.3% 0.8%  
123 0.1% 0.5%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 2% 99.3%  
70 0.3% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 2% 95%  
73 2% 93%  
74 4% 91%  
75 11% 87%  
76 3% 76%  
77 11% 73%  
78 3% 62%  
79 16% 60% Median
80 5% 44%  
81 5% 38%  
82 5% 34%  
83 8% 29%  
84 1.1% 21%  
85 9% 20%  
86 3% 11%  
87 2% 9%  
88 4% 7%  
89 0.1% 3%  
90 1.0% 3%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.2% 1.3%  
93 0.4% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.5%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 98.8%  
49 1.2% 98%  
50 1.2% 97%  
51 6% 96%  
52 9% 89%  
53 7% 81%  
54 4% 74%  
55 3% 70%  
56 13% 67%  
57 16% 54% Median
58 4% 38%  
59 10% 34%  
60 2% 24%  
61 9% 22%  
62 4% 13%  
63 3% 9%  
64 0.9% 5%  
65 1.1% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.3% 1.2%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 0.7% 99.5%  
45 0.7% 98.8%  
46 1.3% 98% Last Result
47 2% 97%  
48 3% 95%  
49 2% 92%  
50 9% 90%  
51 7% 80%  
52 7% 74%  
53 15% 66%  
54 8% 51% Median
55 7% 44%  
56 7% 37%  
57 12% 30%  
58 2% 18%  
59 6% 16%  
60 4% 10%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 0.9% 97%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 4% 92%  
42 4% 88%  
43 5% 84%  
44 11% 79%  
45 24% 68% Median
46 11% 45%  
47 4% 34%  
48 3% 30%  
49 10% 27%  
50 5% 17%  
51 4% 12%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.2%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 526 100% 518–536 514–539 513–552 506–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 466 100% 455–475 451–478 449–480 442–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 436 100% 424–445 420–447 417–450 409–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 421 100% 411–432 407–434 404–441 401–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 405 100% 397–417 391–420 387–422 384–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 390 100% 379–400 376–404 373–409 369–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 359 89% 353–373 348–374 343–384 342–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 327 0% 318–339 312–341 307–343 297–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 304 0% 292–312 289–318 287–322 282–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 292 0% 280–300 275–304 270–307 256–310
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 236–256 233–258 230–261 225–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 164 0% 155–172 153–175 150–178 147–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 154 0% 144–161 140–163 124–166 110–169

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0.1% 99.9%  
505 0.1% 99.9%  
506 0.4% 99.7%  
507 0.1% 99.4%  
508 0.2% 99.3%  
509 0.1% 99.1%  
510 0.7% 99.0%  
511 0.3% 98%  
512 0.6% 98%  
513 1.4% 98%  
514 1.2% 96%  
515 0.6% 95%  
516 0.7% 94%  
517 2% 94%  
518 2% 92%  
519 2% 90%  
520 3% 88%  
521 2% 85%  
522 0.9% 83%  
523 6% 82%  
524 5% 76%  
525 16% 70%  
526 5% 55%  
527 4% 49%  
528 3% 45%  
529 3% 43% Median
530 2% 39%  
531 8% 37%  
532 12% 29%  
533 3% 17%  
534 2% 14%  
535 1.4% 12%  
536 1.2% 11%  
537 0.7% 9%  
538 4% 9%  
539 1.1% 5%  
540 0.5% 4%  
541 0.2% 4%  
542 0.1% 3%  
543 0.3% 3%  
544 0.3% 3%  
545 0% 3%  
546 0.1% 3%  
547 0% 3%  
548 0% 3%  
549 0% 3%  
550 0% 3%  
551 0% 3%  
552 0.3% 3%  
553 0% 2%  
554 0% 2%  
555 0% 2%  
556 0% 2%  
557 0% 2%  
558 0.1% 2%  
559 0% 2%  
560 0.7% 2%  
561 0.1% 1.4%  
562 0.5% 1.3%  
563 0% 0.7%  
564 0.1% 0.7%  
565 0% 0.6%  
566 0.1% 0.6%  
567 0.1% 0.6%  
568 0.1% 0.5%  
569 0.2% 0.4%  
570 0.1% 0.2%  
571 0% 0.2%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0.1% 0.1%  
574 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0.3% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.6%  
442 0.1% 99.5%  
443 0% 99.5%  
444 0.1% 99.4%  
445 0% 99.4%  
446 0.3% 99.3%  
447 0.7% 99.0%  
448 0.1% 98%  
449 2% 98%  
450 1.1% 97%  
451 0.9% 96%  
452 0.5% 95%  
453 0.9% 94%  
454 1.2% 93%  
455 2% 92%  
456 1.5% 90%  
457 0.5% 88%  
458 2% 88%  
459 3% 86%  
460 14% 83%  
461 1.2% 69%  
462 1.4% 68%  
463 2% 67%  
464 4% 64%  
465 2% 60%  
466 9% 59% Median
467 5% 50%  
468 14% 44%  
469 5% 30%  
470 2% 25%  
471 4% 23%  
472 3% 19%  
473 1.2% 17%  
474 3% 15%  
475 4% 13%  
476 0.8% 8%  
477 2% 8%  
478 0.4% 5%  
479 1.1% 5%  
480 2% 4%  
481 0.2% 1.3%  
482 0.3% 1.1%  
483 0.2% 0.8%  
484 0.2% 0.6%  
485 0% 0.4%  
486 0.1% 0.3%  
487 0% 0.2%  
488 0% 0.2%  
489 0.1% 0.2%  
490 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
402 0% 100%  
403 0.3% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.7%  
405 0% 99.7%  
406 0% 99.7%  
407 0% 99.6%  
408 0.1% 99.6%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.7% 99.5%  
411 0.1% 98.8%  
412 0.1% 98.6%  
413 0.2% 98%  
414 0.2% 98%  
415 0.5% 98%  
416 0.1% 98%  
417 0.4% 98%  
418 0.2% 97%  
419 1.4% 97%  
420 1.1% 96%  
421 2% 95%  
422 2% 93%  
423 0.6% 91%  
424 2% 91%  
425 0.7% 89%  
426 2% 88%  
427 3% 86%  
428 3% 83%  
429 8% 81%  
430 11% 72%  
431 2% 61%  
432 1.5% 60%  
433 2% 58%  
434 2% 56%  
435 3% 54% Median
436 15% 51%  
437 3% 36%  
438 7% 33%  
439 3% 26%  
440 2% 24%  
441 0.9% 21%  
442 2% 20%  
443 5% 19%  
444 2% 13%  
445 3% 11%  
446 2% 8%  
447 2% 6%  
448 1.1% 4%  
449 0.9% 3%  
450 0.1% 3%  
451 1.0% 2%  
452 0.3% 1.4%  
453 0.5% 1.2%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.8%  
397 0% 99.8%  
398 0% 99.7%  
399 0% 99.7%  
400 0.1% 99.6%  
401 0.5% 99.6%  
402 0.3% 99.1%  
403 1.1% 98.7%  
404 0.9% 98%  
405 1.1% 97%  
406 0.5% 96%  
407 0.2% 95%  
408 0.3% 95%  
409 1.2% 95%  
410 2% 93%  
411 6% 92%  
412 2% 86%  
413 4% 84%  
414 2% 80%  
415 10% 78%  
416 1.4% 67%  
417 0.8% 66%  
418 0.6% 65%  
419 2% 64%  
420 11% 62%  
421 3% 51% Median
422 6% 48%  
423 16% 42%  
424 6% 26%  
425 2% 20%  
426 0.4% 18%  
427 1.1% 17%  
428 0.2% 16%  
429 1.1% 16%  
430 0.9% 15%  
431 3% 14%  
432 2% 11%  
433 2% 9%  
434 3% 7%  
435 0.4% 4%  
436 0.2% 4%  
437 0.3% 3%  
438 0.1% 3%  
439 0% 3%  
440 0.4% 3%  
441 0.1% 3%  
442 0.1% 2%  
443 0.1% 2%  
444 0% 2%  
445 0% 2%  
446 0.1% 2%  
447 0% 2%  
448 0.1% 2%  
449 1.4% 2%  
450 0.2% 0.6%  
451 0% 0.5%  
452 0% 0.4%  
453 0% 0.4%  
454 0% 0.4%  
455 0% 0.4%  
456 0% 0.4%  
457 0% 0.4%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.2% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.7%  
377 0% 99.7%  
378 0% 99.7%  
379 0% 99.7%  
380 0% 99.7%  
381 0% 99.7%  
382 0% 99.7%  
383 0.1% 99.6%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.3% 99.5%  
386 0.1% 99.2%  
387 2% 99.1%  
388 0.4% 97%  
389 1.5% 97%  
390 0.3% 96%  
391 0.7% 95%  
392 0.3% 95%  
393 0.2% 94%  
394 0.5% 94%  
395 0.9% 94%  
396 1.4% 93%  
397 2% 91%  
398 2% 90%  
399 2% 88%  
400 2% 86%  
401 3% 84%  
402 11% 81%  
403 14% 70%  
404 4% 55%  
405 3% 51%  
406 0.5% 48% Median
407 3% 48%  
408 5% 45%  
409 5% 40%  
410 4% 35%  
411 2% 31%  
412 2% 29%  
413 0.9% 27%  
414 3% 26%  
415 3% 23%  
416 6% 20%  
417 7% 14%  
418 1.2% 8%  
419 0.9% 7%  
420 1.1% 6% Last Result
421 1.0% 5%  
422 2% 4%  
423 0.5% 2%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.2% 1.1%  
426 0.2% 0.9%  
427 0.3% 0.7%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.4%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0.1% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.2% 99.7%  
368 0.1% 99.6%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.4% 99.3%  
371 0.3% 98.9%  
372 0.6% 98.6%  
373 0.8% 98%  
374 0.9% 97%  
375 1.0% 96%  
376 2% 95%  
377 2% 94%  
378 1.2% 92%  
379 1.2% 90%  
380 3% 89%  
381 0.8% 86%  
382 3% 85%  
383 10% 83%  
384 1.5% 73%  
385 10% 71%  
386 4% 62%  
387 2% 58%  
388 3% 56%  
389 1.2% 53%  
390 3% 51% Median
391 10% 48%  
392 7% 38%  
393 5% 31%  
394 4% 26%  
395 2% 21%  
396 1.1% 19%  
397 3% 18%  
398 1.2% 16%  
399 1.5% 14% Last Result
400 3% 13%  
401 3% 10%  
402 0.5% 7%  
403 1.1% 6%  
404 0.5% 5%  
405 0.6% 5%  
406 0.2% 4%  
407 0.8% 4%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.2% 3%  
410 0.8% 2%  
411 0.1% 2%  
412 0% 2%  
413 0.1% 1.5%  
414 0% 1.4%  
415 0.1% 1.3%  
416 0.1% 1.3%  
417 0.2% 1.2%  
418 0.1% 1.0%  
419 0.5% 0.9%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0.1% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9% Last Result
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 1.2% 99.8%  
343 1.1% 98.5%  
344 0.7% 97%  
345 0.3% 97%  
346 0.1% 96%  
347 0.6% 96%  
348 2% 96%  
349 1.2% 93%  
350 0.7% 92%  
351 0.3% 92%  
352 0.9% 91%  
353 0.7% 90%  
354 0.5% 90%  
355 0.7% 89% Majority
356 3% 88%  
357 19% 85%  
358 13% 66%  
359 9% 53%  
360 4% 43%  
361 0.4% 39% Median
362 2% 39%  
363 4% 37%  
364 2% 32%  
365 2% 30%  
366 0.6% 29%  
367 1.0% 28%  
368 2% 27%  
369 0.7% 25%  
370 0.4% 24%  
371 2% 24%  
372 5% 22%  
373 10% 16%  
374 1.5% 6%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 0% 4%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.4% 3%  
379 0.1% 3%  
380 0.1% 3%  
381 0% 3%  
382 0% 3%  
383 0.2% 3%  
384 0.1% 3%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 0.1% 2%  
387 2% 2%  
388 0.2% 0.6%  
389 0% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.2% 0.2%  
404 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.3% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.6%  
293 0% 99.6%  
294 0% 99.6%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0% 99.4%  
299 0.7% 99.4%  
300 0.1% 98.6%  
301 0.1% 98.6%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0% 98%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0% 98%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.6% 97%  
309 0.5% 97%  
310 0.2% 96%  
311 0.4% 96%  
312 1.0% 96%  
313 1.0% 95%  
314 0.3% 94%  
315 1.1% 94%  
316 1.0% 92%  
317 1.1% 91%  
318 1.4% 90%  
319 3% 89%  
320 8% 86%  
321 2% 79%  
322 2% 76%  
323 4% 75%  
324 10% 71%  
325 2% 61%  
326 2% 59% Last Result
327 13% 57% Median
328 3% 44%  
329 3% 40%  
330 4% 37%  
331 5% 33%  
332 3% 28%  
333 2% 25%  
334 1.4% 23%  
335 3% 21%  
336 3% 18%  
337 2% 15%  
338 1.2% 13%  
339 5% 12%  
340 1.3% 7%  
341 0.7% 5%  
342 1.4% 5%  
343 1.1% 3%  
344 0.5% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.2% 1.2%  
347 0.3% 1.0%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.3% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.3% 99.6%  
283 0.2% 99.3%  
284 0.2% 99.1%  
285 0.5% 98.9%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 2% 98%  
288 1.0% 96%  
289 1.1% 95% Last Result
290 0.9% 94%  
291 1.2% 93%  
292 7% 92%  
293 6% 86%  
294 3% 80%  
295 3% 77%  
296 0.9% 74%  
297 2% 73%  
298 2% 71%  
299 4% 69%  
300 5% 65%  
301 5% 60%  
302 3% 55%  
303 0.5% 52%  
304 3% 52% Median
305 4% 49%  
306 14% 45%  
307 11% 30%  
308 3% 19%  
309 2% 16%  
310 2% 14%  
311 2% 12%  
312 2% 10%  
313 1.4% 9%  
314 0.9% 7%  
315 0.5% 6%  
316 0.2% 6%  
317 0.3% 6%  
318 0.7% 5%  
319 0.3% 5%  
320 1.5% 4%  
321 0.4% 3%  
322 2% 3%  
323 0.1% 0.9%  
324 0.3% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.4%  
327 0% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.2% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0.1% 100%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0.5% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.2%  
258 0% 99.2%  
259 0% 99.1%  
260 0% 99.1%  
261 1.0% 99.1%  
262 0.2% 98%  
263 0% 98%  
264 0% 98%  
265 0% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0% 98%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.1% 97%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 0.1% 97%  
274 0.3% 97%  
275 2% 96%  
276 0.2% 95%  
277 0.5% 95%  
278 1.2% 94%  
279 0.3% 93%  
280 5% 92%  
281 1.5% 87%  
282 0.8% 86%  
283 5% 85%  
284 3% 80%  
285 4% 77%  
286 3% 73%  
287 0.9% 71%  
288 3% 70%  
289 6% 67%  
290 6% 60%  
291 0.7% 55%  
292 4% 54% Median
293 9% 50%  
294 2% 41%  
295 18% 39%  
296 2% 21%  
297 2% 19%  
298 4% 17%  
299 1.3% 12%  
300 3% 11% Last Result
301 0.2% 8%  
302 0.9% 8%  
303 1.1% 7%  
304 1.4% 6%  
305 1.2% 4%  
306 0.2% 3%  
307 0.4% 3%  
308 1.3% 2%  
309 0.1% 1.2%  
310 0.7% 1.1%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.2% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0% 99.6%  
225 0.1% 99.5%  
226 0.2% 99.4%  
227 0.7% 99.3%  
228 0.6% 98.5%  
229 0.4% 98%  
230 1.1% 98%  
231 0.8% 96%  
232 0.7% 96%  
233 0.6% 95%  
234 2% 94%  
235 2% 93%  
236 4% 91%  
237 2% 87%  
238 2% 86%  
239 5% 84%  
240 3% 79%  
241 4% 76%  
242 9% 72%  
243 4% 63%  
244 4% 58%  
245 2% 54%  
246 2% 52%  
247 7% 50% Median
248 4% 43%  
249 5% 39%  
250 17% 35%  
251 2% 18%  
252 0.6% 16%  
253 2% 15%  
254 1.2% 14%  
255 1.1% 12%  
256 5% 11%  
257 1.1% 7%  
258 2% 6%  
259 0.4% 4%  
260 0.2% 3%  
261 1.3% 3%  
262 0.4% 2%  
263 0.2% 2%  
264 0.6% 1.3%  
265 0% 0.7%  
266 0.1% 0.7%  
267 0.1% 0.5%  
268 0% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0% 0.3%  
272 0.2% 0.3%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0.1% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0.1% 100%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.2% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.5%  
148 0.3% 99.4%  
149 0.2% 99.1%  
150 2% 98.9%  
151 0.3% 97%  
152 1.2% 97%  
153 3% 96%  
154 3% 93%  
155 3% 90%  
156 5% 88%  
157 3% 83%  
158 3% 80%  
159 3% 77%  
160 5% 74%  
161 2% 69%  
162 4% 67%  
163 3% 63%  
164 11% 60%  
165 0.8% 49% Median
166 19% 48%  
167 2% 29%  
168 4% 27%  
169 4% 23%  
170 5% 19%  
171 1.5% 15%  
172 4% 13%  
173 2% 9%  
174 2% 8%  
175 0.3% 5%  
176 2% 5%  
177 0.9% 3%  
178 0.2% 3%  
179 0.9% 2%  
180 0.7% 1.5%  
181 0.1% 0.7%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.8%  
109 0% 99.7%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.8% 99.5%  
112 0.3% 98.7%  
113 0.5% 98%  
114 0.1% 98%  
115 0% 98%  
116 0% 98%  
117 0% 98%  
118 0.1% 98%  
119 0% 98%  
120 0.1% 98%  
121 0% 98%  
122 0% 98%  
123 0% 98%  
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0% 97%  
126 0% 97%  
127 0% 97%  
128 0% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0% 97%  
131 0% 97%  
132 0% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0.2% 97%  
137 0.5% 97%  
138 1.0% 96%  
139 0.2% 95%  
140 0.5% 95%  
141 1.2% 95%  
142 0.6% 94%  
143 2% 93%  
144 3% 91%  
145 2% 88%  
146 4% 86%  
147 5% 82%  
148 2% 77%  
149 5% 75%  
150 3% 70%  
151 9% 67%  
152 5% 58%  
153 2% 53% Median
154 12% 51%  
155 8% 39%  
156 6% 31%  
157 4% 25%  
158 3% 21%  
159 2% 18%  
160 3% 16%  
161 3% 13%  
162 5% 10%  
163 0.9% 5%  
164 0.9% 4%  
165 0.4% 4%  
166 1.2% 3%  
167 0.4% 2%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.1%  
170 0.1% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0.1% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations