Opinion Poll by Kantar, 14–19 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.5–32.3% 29.2–32.6% 28.8–33.0% 28.2–33.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.2% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 233 223–243 219–245 217–248 213–253
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–129 111–131 108–133 105–137
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 113 106–121 104–123 101–125 98–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–82 67–84 66–86 63–89
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 53–68 52–70 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 48–60 47–61 45–63 43–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–59 46–60 45–62 42–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.3% 99.6%  
214 0.3% 99.2%  
215 0.4% 99.0%  
216 0.5% 98.6%  
217 0.6% 98%  
218 1.1% 97%  
219 1.5% 96%  
220 1.4% 95%  
221 1.4% 94%  
222 2% 92%  
223 2% 90%  
224 3% 88%  
225 5% 85%  
226 2% 81%  
227 4% 78%  
228 5% 74%  
229 4% 69%  
230 6% 65%  
231 4% 60%  
232 4% 55%  
233 5% 51% Median
234 5% 46%  
235 6% 41%  
236 4% 36%  
237 4% 32%  
238 4% 28%  
239 5% 25%  
240 4% 20%  
241 2% 15%  
242 2% 13%  
243 2% 11%  
244 3% 9%  
245 1.2% 6%  
246 1.2% 5%  
247 0.7% 4%  
248 0.5% 3%  
249 0.6% 2%  
250 0.5% 2%  
251 0.4% 1.2%  
252 0.2% 0.8%  
253 0.2% 0.6%  
254 0.2% 0.5%  
255 0.1% 0.3%  
256 0.1% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 99.0%  
108 0.9% 98%  
109 0.9% 97%  
110 1.5% 97%  
111 2% 95%  
112 3% 93%  
113 4% 90%  
114 3% 86%  
115 3% 83%  
116 5% 80%  
117 5% 74%  
118 6% 69%  
119 7% 63%  
120 7% 56% Median
121 5% 49%  
122 6% 44%  
123 7% 38%  
124 5% 31%  
125 4% 26%  
126 4% 22%  
127 4% 17%  
128 4% 14%  
129 2% 10%  
130 2% 8%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.2% 4%  
133 0.9% 3%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.4%  
136 0.4% 1.0%  
137 0.2% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.5%  
99 0.3% 99.2%  
100 0.7% 98.9%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 0.9% 97%  
103 1.4% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 2% 93%  
106 3% 90%  
107 5% 87%  
108 6% 82%  
109 5% 76%  
110 6% 70%  
111 6% 64%  
112 6% 58%  
113 6% 52% Median
114 4% 46%  
115 5% 42%  
116 7% 37%  
117 3% 30%  
118 6% 27%  
119 7% 21%  
120 2% 14%  
121 4% 12%  
122 3% 8%  
123 1.2% 5%  
124 1.1% 4%  
125 1.0% 3%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.3% 1.1%  
129 0.3% 0.8%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.7% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 3% 91%  
70 5% 88%  
71 6% 83%  
72 7% 77%  
73 7% 70%  
74 7% 64%  
75 9% 56% Median
76 7% 47%  
77 7% 40%  
78 7% 33%  
79 6% 27%  
80 6% 21%  
81 3% 15%  
82 3% 12%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.5% 4%  
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.7% 99.4%  
51 1.1% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 5% 90%  
56 6% 86%  
57 7% 79%  
58 5% 72%  
59 8% 68%  
60 10% 60% Median
61 11% 50%  
62 7% 38%  
63 6% 31%  
64 5% 25%  
65 6% 21%  
66 5% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.3% 5% Last Result
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.7% 99.2%  
45 1.1% 98.6%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 3% 96%  
48 4% 92%  
49 5% 89%  
50 6% 83%  
51 9% 77%  
52 8% 69%  
53 9% 60%  
54 10% 52% Median
55 8% 42%  
56 7% 34%  
57 7% 27%  
58 5% 20%  
59 4% 14%  
60 3% 11%  
61 3% 7%  
62 1.5% 4%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.0%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.5%  
44 0.8% 98.8%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 4% 90%  
49 8% 85%  
50 7% 77%  
51 8% 70%  
52 10% 62%  
53 8% 52% Median
54 9% 44%  
55 7% 35%  
56 7% 28%  
57 5% 21%  
58 6% 17%  
59 3% 11%  
60 2% 7%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 510–529 508–532 505–534 501–539
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 460 100% 450–470 447–473 444–475 440–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 452 100% 442–463 439–466 436–468 431–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 415 100% 404–425 401–428 398–431 394–436
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 407 100% 396–418 393–420 391–423 386–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 400 100% 389–410 386–413 383–415 378–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 362 80% 351–372 348–375 345–378 340–383
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 339 3% 329–350 326–353 323–356 318–361
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 294 0% 284–305 281–308 278–311 273–315
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 287 0% 276–297 273–300 271–303 266–308
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 234 0% 224–244 221–247 218–249 214–254
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 172–191 169–193 167–196 162–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 173 0% 164–183 162–185 160–188 155–193

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.9%  
499 0.1% 99.8%  
500 0.1% 99.7%  
501 0.2% 99.6%  
502 0.3% 99.3%  
503 0.2% 99.0%  
504 0.6% 98.8%  
505 0.8% 98%  
506 1.1% 97%  
507 0.9% 96%  
508 1.5% 95%  
509 1.1% 94%  
510 3% 93%  
511 2% 90%  
512 3% 88%  
513 4% 85%  
514 3% 81%  
515 3% 77%  
516 6% 74%  
517 4% 68%  
518 4% 64%  
519 5% 60%  
520 7% 56% Median
521 4% 49%  
522 7% 45%  
523 5% 39%  
524 6% 34%  
525 3% 28%  
526 5% 25%  
527 4% 19%  
528 4% 16%  
529 3% 12%  
530 2% 9%  
531 1.1% 7%  
532 2% 6%  
533 1.0% 4%  
534 0.7% 3%  
535 0.8% 2%  
536 0.5% 2%  
537 0.2% 1.2%  
538 0.4% 0.9%  
539 0.1% 0.5%  
540 0.1% 0.4%  
541 0.1% 0.3%  
542 0.1% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.8%  
438 0.1% 99.7%  
439 0.1% 99.6%  
440 0.3% 99.5%  
441 0.3% 99.2%  
442 0.4% 98.9%  
443 0.3% 98%  
444 0.7% 98%  
445 1.2% 97%  
446 1.1% 96%  
447 0.9% 95%  
448 1.0% 94%  
449 3% 93%  
450 3% 90%  
451 2% 87%  
452 2% 85%  
453 4% 84%  
454 6% 80%  
455 4% 74%  
456 2% 70%  
457 4% 68%  
458 6% 64%  
459 4% 57%  
460 4% 53% Median
461 4% 49%  
462 6% 44%  
463 5% 39%  
464 5% 33%  
465 3% 28%  
466 4% 25%  
467 4% 21%  
468 3% 17%  
469 2% 14%  
470 3% 12%  
471 2% 9%  
472 1.3% 7%  
473 1.4% 6%  
474 0.9% 4%  
475 1.0% 3%  
476 0.7% 2%  
477 0.4% 2%  
478 0.3% 1.3%  
479 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
480 0.2% 0.6%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.8%  
430 0.2% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0.1% 99.5%  
433 0.4% 99.4%  
434 0.3% 99.0%  
435 0.3% 98.6%  
436 0.8% 98%  
437 0.7% 97%  
438 0.7% 97%  
439 1.3% 96%  
440 2% 95%  
441 1.1% 93%  
442 2% 92%  
443 3% 90%  
444 2% 86%  
445 4% 85%  
446 5% 81%  
447 2% 77%  
448 6% 74%  
449 4% 68%  
450 4% 65%  
451 6% 61%  
452 5% 55%  
453 3% 50% Median
454 6% 47%  
455 5% 41%  
456 3% 36%  
457 6% 32%  
458 4% 27%  
459 2% 22%  
460 5% 20%  
461 2% 15%  
462 2% 13%  
463 3% 11%  
464 2% 8%  
465 1.1% 7%  
466 2% 6%  
467 1.1% 4%  
468 0.6% 3%  
469 0.7% 2%  
470 0.5% 2%  
471 0.3% 1.1%  
472 0.3% 0.8%  
473 0.2% 0.6%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7%  
394 0.2% 99.5%  
395 0.3% 99.3%  
396 0.3% 99.0%  
397 0.5% 98.7%  
398 0.7% 98%  
399 0.7% 97%  
400 1.0% 97%  
401 1.2% 96%  
402 1.4% 95%  
403 2% 93%  
404 3% 91%  
405 2% 89%  
406 3% 87%  
407 3% 84%  
408 3% 81%  
409 5% 78%  
410 3% 73%  
411 4% 70%  
412 5% 66%  
413 5% 62%  
414 5% 57%  
415 5% 52% Median
416 5% 47%  
417 5% 42%  
418 4% 38%  
419 5% 33%  
420 5% 28% Last Result
421 3% 24%  
422 4% 21%  
423 3% 17%  
424 2% 14%  
425 3% 12%  
426 2% 10%  
427 2% 8%  
428 1.3% 6%  
429 1.0% 5%  
430 0.9% 4%  
431 0.7% 3%  
432 0.4% 2%  
433 0.4% 2%  
434 0.3% 1.1%  
435 0.2% 0.8%  
436 0.2% 0.6%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0.1% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.6%  
386 0.2% 99.5%  
387 0.3% 99.3%  
388 0.3% 99.0%  
389 0.5% 98.7%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 0.9% 98%  
392 1.1% 97%  
393 0.9% 96%  
394 1.1% 95%  
395 1.3% 94%  
396 3% 92%  
397 2% 90%  
398 4% 88%  
399 2% 84% Last Result
400 3% 83%  
401 4% 79%  
402 5% 75%  
403 3% 69%  
404 4% 66%  
405 5% 62%  
406 5% 58%  
407 5% 53% Median
408 4% 48%  
409 5% 44%  
410 4% 39%  
411 6% 35%  
412 3% 29%  
413 5% 26%  
414 2% 21%  
415 3% 19%  
416 3% 15%  
417 2% 12%  
418 2% 10%  
419 1.5% 8%  
420 2% 7%  
421 0.7% 5%  
422 1.0% 4%  
423 0.8% 3%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.4% 2%  
426 0.2% 1.2%  
427 0.3% 1.0%  
428 0.1% 0.7%  
429 0.2% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.2% 99.6%  
379 0.2% 99.4%  
380 0.4% 99.2%  
381 0.4% 98.8%  
382 0.5% 98%  
383 0.6% 98%  
384 0.7% 97%  
385 1.1% 97%  
386 0.9% 96%  
387 2% 95%  
388 2% 93%  
389 2% 91%  
390 4% 89%  
391 2% 86%  
392 3% 83%  
393 4% 80%  
394 4% 76%  
395 4% 73%  
396 4% 69%  
397 5% 65%  
398 4% 59%  
399 5% 55%  
400 4% 50% Median
401 4% 46%  
402 6% 42%  
403 4% 36%  
404 3% 32%  
405 4% 28%  
406 5% 24%  
407 3% 20%  
408 2% 17%  
409 3% 15%  
410 3% 12%  
411 1.3% 9%  
412 2% 8%  
413 1.1% 6%  
414 1.2% 5%  
415 0.8% 3%  
416 0.6% 2%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.4% 1.5%  
419 0.3% 1.1%  
420 0.2% 0.8%  
421 0.1% 0.6%  
422 0.2% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
335 0% 100%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
341 0.2% 99.4%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.4% 99.0%  
344 0.5% 98.7%  
345 0.7% 98%  
346 1.1% 97%  
347 1.2% 96%  
348 1.2% 95%  
349 0.8% 94%  
350 2% 93%  
351 2% 92%  
352 2% 89%  
353 4% 88%  
354 3% 83%  
355 3% 80% Majority
356 3% 77%  
357 4% 74%  
358 4% 70%  
359 4% 66%  
360 5% 62%  
361 5% 57%  
362 6% 52% Median
363 5% 46%  
364 5% 41%  
365 4% 37%  
366 3% 33%  
367 3% 29%  
368 4% 27%  
369 5% 22%  
370 3% 17%  
371 2% 14%  
372 2% 11%  
373 1.4% 10%  
374 2% 8%  
375 2% 7%  
376 1.2% 5%  
377 0.9% 4%  
378 0.8% 3%  
379 0.5% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.3% 1.3%  
382 0.2% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.4%  
320 0.4% 99.2%  
321 0.5% 98.8%  
322 0.5% 98%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 1.1% 97%  
325 1.1% 96%  
326 1.0% 95% Last Result
327 2% 94%  
328 2% 92%  
329 2% 90%  
330 3% 88%  
331 2% 85%  
332 3% 83%  
333 3% 80%  
334 4% 77%  
335 6% 73%  
336 4% 67%  
337 5% 64%  
338 4% 59%  
339 6% 55%  
340 4% 49% Median
341 5% 45%  
342 4% 40%  
343 3% 36%  
344 4% 32%  
345 6% 29%  
346 3% 23%  
347 3% 19%  
348 2% 16%  
349 2% 14%  
350 3% 12%  
351 2% 9%  
352 2% 7%  
353 1.2% 5%  
354 0.8% 4%  
355 0.7% 3% Majority
356 0.6% 3%  
357 0.6% 2%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.3% 1.1%  
360 0.2% 0.8%  
361 0.2% 0.6%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.3% 99.2%  
276 0.4% 98.9%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.7% 98%  
279 0.9% 97%  
280 1.0% 96%  
281 1.3% 95%  
282 2% 94%  
283 2% 92%  
284 3% 90%  
285 2% 88%  
286 3% 86%  
287 4% 83%  
288 3% 79%  
289 5% 76% Last Result
290 5% 72%  
291 4% 67%  
292 5% 62%  
293 5% 58% Median
294 5% 53%  
295 5% 48%  
296 5% 43%  
297 5% 38%  
298 4% 34%  
299 3% 30%  
300 5% 27%  
301 3% 22%  
302 3% 19%  
303 3% 16%  
304 2% 13%  
305 3% 11%  
306 2% 9%  
307 1.4% 7%  
308 1.2% 5%  
309 1.0% 4%  
310 0.7% 3%  
311 0.7% 3%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.3%  
314 0.3% 1.0%  
315 0.2% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.2% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.5%  
267 0.2% 99.3%  
268 0.4% 99.1%  
269 0.4% 98.7%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.8% 98%  
272 1.1% 97%  
273 1.0% 96%  
274 1.4% 95%  
275 2% 93%  
276 2% 91%  
277 3% 90%  
278 3% 87%  
279 4% 84%  
280 4% 81%  
281 4% 77%  
282 3% 73%  
283 5% 70%  
284 4% 65%  
285 5% 61%  
286 5% 56% Median
287 6% 51%  
288 4% 45%  
289 4% 41%  
290 4% 37%  
291 5% 33%  
292 4% 28%  
293 4% 24%  
294 4% 20%  
295 2% 16%  
296 3% 14%  
297 3% 12%  
298 2% 9%  
299 2% 8%  
300 1.1% 6% Last Result
301 1.1% 5%  
302 0.9% 4%  
303 0.7% 3%  
304 0.5% 2%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.4% 1.2%  
307 0.2% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0.2% 99.6%  
215 0.3% 99.3%  
216 0.4% 99.0%  
217 0.7% 98.7%  
218 0.9% 98%  
219 0.5% 97%  
220 1.2% 97% Last Result
221 1.4% 95%  
222 2% 94%  
223 2% 92%  
224 3% 91%  
225 3% 88%  
226 3% 85%  
227 3% 82%  
228 5% 79%  
229 4% 74%  
230 5% 71%  
231 5% 66%  
232 6% 61%  
233 4% 56% Median
234 6% 52%  
235 6% 46%  
236 4% 40%  
237 4% 36%  
238 4% 32%  
239 5% 28%  
240 4% 23%  
241 3% 19%  
242 4% 17%  
243 2% 13%  
244 2% 11%  
245 2% 9%  
246 1.3% 7%  
247 1.1% 5%  
248 1.1% 4%  
249 0.8% 3%  
250 0.6% 2%  
251 0.6% 2%  
252 0.3% 1.1%  
253 0.2% 0.8%  
254 0.2% 0.6%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0.1% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.5%  
164 0.2% 99.3%  
165 0.5% 99.0%  
166 0.8% 98.6%  
167 0.6% 98%  
168 0.7% 97%  
169 2% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 2% 93%  
172 2% 91%  
173 5% 90%  
174 4% 84%  
175 2% 81%  
176 5% 78%  
177 6% 73%  
178 5% 68%  
179 3% 63%  
180 7% 59% Median
181 6% 53%  
182 4% 47%  
183 4% 42%  
184 7% 38%  
185 5% 31%  
186 2% 26%  
187 4% 23%  
188 5% 20%  
189 2% 15%  
190 2% 12%  
191 2% 11%  
192 3% 9%  
193 0.8% 5%  
194 0.8% 5%  
195 1.3% 4%  
196 0.9% 3%  
197 0.3% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.4%  
199 0.4% 1.0%  
200 0.1% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.3% 99.5%  
157 0.2% 99.1%  
158 0.4% 98.9%  
159 0.8% 98.6%  
160 1.3% 98%  
161 1.0% 96%  
162 1.1% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 4% 92%  
165 2% 89%  
166 2% 86%  
167 4% 85%  
168 5% 80%  
169 5% 75%  
170 3% 70%  
171 4% 67%  
172 7% 62%  
173 7% 56% Median
174 5% 49%  
175 5% 45%  
176 5% 40%  
177 7% 34%  
178 3% 28%  
179 3% 24%  
180 4% 21%  
181 4% 17%  
182 3% 13%  
183 2% 11%  
184 2% 9%  
185 2% 7%  
186 1.2% 5%  
187 0.6% 4%  
188 0.8% 3%  
189 0.8% 2%  
190 0.4% 1.3%  
191 0.2% 0.9%  
192 0.2% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations