Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 22–25 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.0% 28.7–31.3% 28.4–31.7% 28.1–32.0% 27.5–32.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.6% 8.3–10.9% 7.9–11.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 230 218–238 215–242 213–244 208–249
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 136 128–144 126–148 124–150 120–155
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–121 103–124 101–126 98–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 72 66–78 64–80 63–82 60–86
Die Linke 69 60 56–67 54–68 52–70 50–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 47–58 45–60 44–62 42–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 48 41–52 39–54 0–55 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.2% 99.6%  
209 0.2% 99.4%  
210 0.4% 99.2%  
211 0.5% 98.8%  
212 0.6% 98%  
213 1.3% 98%  
214 1.0% 96%  
215 1.2% 95%  
216 1.0% 94%  
217 2% 93%  
218 2% 91%  
219 1.3% 89%  
220 2% 88%  
221 3% 86%  
222 2% 83%  
223 2% 81%  
224 5% 79%  
225 3% 74%  
226 5% 71%  
227 5% 66%  
228 5% 61%  
229 4% 57%  
230 8% 53% Median
231 5% 44%  
232 7% 39%  
233 7% 32%  
234 3% 26%  
235 7% 23%  
236 2% 17%  
237 2% 15%  
238 3% 13%  
239 2% 10%  
240 2% 8%  
241 1.3% 7%  
242 1.1% 5%  
243 1.0% 4%  
244 1.0% 3%  
245 0.5% 2%  
246 0.3% 2%  
247 0.5% 2%  
248 0.3% 1.0%  
249 0.2% 0.7%  
250 0.2% 0.5%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.2%  
253 0.1% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.6%  
121 0.2% 99.5%  
122 0.6% 99.3%  
123 0.9% 98.7%  
124 1.0% 98%  
125 2% 97%  
126 2% 95%  
127 2% 93%  
128 2% 91%  
129 3% 89%  
130 3% 86%  
131 4% 84%  
132 8% 79%  
133 8% 71%  
134 5% 63%  
135 6% 58%  
136 7% 52% Median
137 6% 45%  
138 4% 39%  
139 5% 35%  
140 7% 30%  
141 5% 24%  
142 4% 19%  
143 3% 15%  
144 2% 12%  
145 2% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 0.9% 6%  
148 1.3% 5%  
149 0.8% 4%  
150 0.9% 3%  
151 0.8% 2%  
152 0.4% 1.4%  
153 0.3% 1.0%  
154 0.2% 0.7%  
155 0.1% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.2% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.5%  
99 0.5% 99.3%  
100 0.7% 98.8%  
101 0.9% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 3% 91%  
106 4% 88%  
107 6% 84%  
108 5% 78%  
109 7% 73%  
110 7% 66%  
111 8% 59%  
112 4% 51% Median
113 6% 46%  
114 10% 41%  
115 4% 30%  
116 3% 27%  
117 7% 24%  
118 2% 17%  
119 2% 15%  
120 2% 12%  
121 2% 10%  
122 0.9% 8%  
123 2% 7%  
124 1.3% 5%  
125 0.5% 4%  
126 1.3% 3%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.2% 2%  
129 0.6% 1.4%  
130 0.2% 0.9%  
131 0.1% 0.7%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.2% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.7%  
61 0.5% 99.3%  
62 1.0% 98.8%  
63 0.9% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 95%  
66 5% 92%  
67 4% 87%  
68 4% 83%  
69 3% 79%  
70 15% 77%  
71 6% 62%  
72 14% 56% Median
73 5% 42%  
74 7% 37%  
75 8% 30%  
76 4% 21%  
77 4% 17%  
78 5% 13%  
79 1.4% 8%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.5% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 1.3% 99.2%  
52 0.8% 98%  
53 1.1% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 2% 93%  
56 10% 90%  
57 4% 81%  
58 14% 77%  
59 5% 63%  
60 10% 58% Median
61 8% 49%  
62 6% 41%  
63 10% 35%  
64 4% 25%  
65 7% 20%  
66 2% 14%  
67 4% 11%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 1.3% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.7%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.3%  
44 2% 98.6%  
45 3% 97%  
46 4% 94% Last Result
47 3% 91%  
48 9% 88%  
49 6% 79%  
50 5% 73%  
51 10% 68%  
52 12% 58% Median
53 6% 45%  
54 12% 39%  
55 6% 27%  
56 4% 21%  
57 6% 17%  
58 2% 11%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.2% 4%  
62 0.6% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 1.0% 97%  
39 2% 96%  
40 2% 94%  
41 2% 92%  
42 3% 90%  
43 3% 87%  
44 4% 84%  
45 4% 80%  
46 7% 76%  
47 11% 69%  
48 12% 58% Median
49 17% 46%  
50 8% 29%  
51 8% 21%  
52 4% 13%  
53 3% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.3% 3%  
56 0.9% 1.5%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 530 100% 519–538 517–543 515–561 511–576
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 465 100% 453–473 449–476 444–479 436–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 441 100% 430–450 425–453 422–456 413–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 417 100% 407–427 404–433 402–438 396–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 402 100% 389–411 383–413 378–415 368–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 394 100% 383–404 380–409 377–415 373–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 354 45% 344–364 340–368 337–372 332–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 330 0% 316–339 311–341 301–343 292–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 307 0% 298–320 296–326 294–331 288–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 295 0% 285–305 280–309 274–311 265–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 239–259 236–264 234–268 229–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 164–182 162–187 160–189 156–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 160 0% 151–167 146–170 131–173 118–178

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 99.9%  
507 0% 99.9%  
508 0.1% 99.9%  
509 0% 99.8%  
510 0.1% 99.8%  
511 0.3% 99.7%  
512 0.4% 99.4%  
513 0.1% 99.0%  
514 0.5% 98.8%  
515 2% 98%  
516 1.0% 97%  
517 0.6% 96%  
518 1.0% 95%  
519 4% 94%  
520 2% 90%  
521 2% 87%  
522 2% 85%  
523 4% 83%  
524 2% 79%  
525 8% 77%  
526 2% 69%  
527 3% 67%  
528 5% 64%  
529 8% 59%  
530 13% 51% Median
531 2% 38%  
532 4% 36%  
533 10% 31%  
534 6% 22%  
535 1.0% 16%  
536 2% 15%  
537 2% 13%  
538 1.3% 11%  
539 0.9% 9%  
540 2% 8%  
541 0.3% 7%  
542 0.9% 7%  
543 0.8% 6%  
544 1.0% 5%  
545 0.1% 4%  
546 0.1% 4%  
547 0.4% 4%  
548 0.2% 3%  
549 0% 3%  
550 0.1% 3%  
551 0% 3%  
552 0% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0% 3%  
555 0.1% 3%  
556 0% 3%  
557 0% 3%  
558 0% 3%  
559 0% 3%  
560 0% 3%  
561 0.2% 3%  
562 0% 2%  
563 0.1% 2%  
564 0.1% 2%  
565 0.8% 2%  
566 0.1% 1.4%  
567 0.3% 1.3%  
568 0.1% 1.0%  
569 0% 0.8%  
570 0.1% 0.8%  
571 0% 0.7%  
572 0% 0.7%  
573 0% 0.6%  
574 0% 0.6%  
575 0% 0.6%  
576 0.2% 0.5%  
577 0.2% 0.3%  
578 0% 0.2%  
579 0.1% 0.1%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0% 99.6%  
436 0.2% 99.5%  
437 0.1% 99.4%  
438 0.2% 99.3%  
439 0.3% 99.1%  
440 0.2% 98.9%  
441 0.3% 98.7%  
442 0.5% 98%  
443 0.3% 98%  
444 0.2% 98%  
445 0.3% 97%  
446 0.4% 97%  
447 0.5% 97%  
448 0.5% 96%  
449 1.0% 96%  
450 0.7% 95%  
451 1.2% 94%  
452 2% 93%  
453 3% 91%  
454 3% 88%  
455 2% 85%  
456 1.5% 82%  
457 2% 81%  
458 3% 78%  
459 3% 76%  
460 2% 73%  
461 2% 70%  
462 2% 68%  
463 4% 67%  
464 5% 63%  
465 10% 58%  
466 7% 48% Median
467 4% 41%  
468 6% 37%  
469 11% 31%  
470 2% 20%  
471 2% 18%  
472 4% 16%  
473 3% 12%  
474 3% 9%  
475 2% 7%  
476 1.0% 5%  
477 0.6% 4%  
478 0.8% 4%  
479 0.5% 3%  
480 0.3% 2%  
481 0.6% 2%  
482 0.5% 1.2%  
483 0.2% 0.7%  
484 0.1% 0.5%  
485 0.2% 0.4%  
486 0.1% 0.2%  
487 0.1% 0.2%  
488 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.8%  
410 0% 99.7%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0% 99.5%  
413 0.1% 99.5%  
414 0.1% 99.4%  
415 0.2% 99.3%  
416 0% 99.1%  
417 0.2% 99.1%  
418 0.1% 98.8%  
419 0.4% 98.8%  
420 0.4% 98%  
421 0.5% 98%  
422 0.5% 98%  
423 0.4% 97%  
424 1.2% 97%  
425 0.4% 95%  
426 0.6% 95%  
427 0.8% 94%  
428 1.2% 94%  
429 2% 92%  
430 2% 91%  
431 2% 88%  
432 4% 86%  
433 3% 82%  
434 4% 79%  
435 4% 75%  
436 4% 71%  
437 3% 67%  
438 2% 64%  
439 5% 62%  
440 6% 57%  
441 4% 51%  
442 3% 47% Median
443 7% 45%  
444 6% 38%  
445 6% 32%  
446 3% 26%  
447 6% 23%  
448 5% 17%  
449 0.8% 11%  
450 2% 10%  
451 2% 9%  
452 1.3% 7%  
453 1.0% 6%  
454 1.3% 5%  
455 0.9% 4%  
456 0.9% 3%  
457 0.4% 2%  
458 0.5% 1.3%  
459 0.3% 0.8%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.9%  
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0.1% 99.8%  
396 0.2% 99.7%  
397 0.1% 99.5%  
398 0.2% 99.3%  
399 0.4% 99.1%  
400 0.5% 98.7%  
401 0.5% 98%  
402 0.9% 98%  
403 1.2% 97%  
404 2% 96%  
405 2% 94%  
406 2% 92%  
407 2% 90%  
408 2% 88%  
409 3% 86%  
410 2% 83%  
411 3% 81%  
412 3% 78%  
413 3% 74%  
414 5% 71%  
415 3% 66%  
416 6% 63%  
417 9% 57%  
418 6% 48% Median
419 4% 42%  
420 11% 38%  
421 3% 28%  
422 1.5% 25%  
423 4% 23%  
424 3% 19%  
425 2% 16%  
426 2% 14%  
427 2% 12%  
428 1.1% 10%  
429 1.3% 9%  
430 0.9% 7%  
431 0.4% 6%  
432 0.9% 6%  
433 0.8% 5%  
434 0.4% 4%  
435 0.4% 4%  
436 0.6% 4%  
437 0.1% 3%  
438 0.3% 3%  
439 0.3% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.1% 2%  
442 0.3% 2%  
443 0.2% 2%  
444 0.1% 1.3%  
445 0.1% 1.2%  
446 0.2% 1.1%  
447 0.1% 0.9%  
448 0.1% 0.8%  
449 0.1% 0.7%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.2% 0.6%  
452 0% 0.4%  
453 0% 0.4%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.7%  
364 0% 99.7%  
365 0% 99.7%  
366 0% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.6%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.3% 99.3%  
371 0.3% 99.0%  
372 0.2% 98.7%  
373 0.3% 98.5%  
374 0.1% 98%  
375 0.1% 98%  
376 0.1% 98%  
377 0.1% 98%  
378 0.4% 98%  
379 0.2% 97%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 0.6% 96%  
382 0.5% 96%  
383 0.6% 95%  
384 0.4% 95%  
385 0.4% 94%  
386 0.3% 94%  
387 1.0% 94%  
388 2% 93%  
389 2% 91%  
390 2% 89%  
391 4% 87%  
392 3% 83%  
393 4% 81%  
394 4% 76%  
395 2% 72%  
396 2% 70%  
397 0.8% 68%  
398 1.1% 67%  
399 2% 66%  
400 3% 64%  
401 8% 60%  
402 5% 52% Median
403 13% 48%  
404 7% 35%  
405 8% 28%  
406 4% 20%  
407 0.9% 16%  
408 0.7% 15%  
409 0.7% 14%  
410 2% 14%  
411 2% 12%  
412 2% 10%  
413 3% 8%  
414 2% 5%  
415 1.1% 3%  
416 0.8% 2%  
417 0.2% 1.0%  
418 0.1% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.7%  
420 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.2% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.2% 99.5%  
374 0.5% 99.4%  
375 0.3% 98.9%  
376 0.5% 98.6%  
377 1.0% 98%  
378 0.9% 97%  
379 0.8% 96%  
380 1.3% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 1.3% 92%  
383 3% 91%  
384 2% 88%  
385 4% 86%  
386 4% 82%  
387 3% 79%  
388 3% 76%  
389 4% 73%  
390 7% 69%  
391 3% 62%  
392 3% 59%  
393 3% 55%  
394 10% 53% Median
395 3% 43%  
396 6% 40%  
397 2% 34%  
398 8% 32%  
399 2% 24% Last Result
400 2% 22%  
401 5% 19%  
402 2% 14%  
403 2% 12%  
404 1.4% 10%  
405 0.9% 9%  
406 1.1% 8%  
407 0.7% 7%  
408 0.6% 6%  
409 0.7% 5%  
410 0.6% 5%  
411 0.6% 4%  
412 0.2% 4%  
413 0.4% 3%  
414 0.4% 3%  
415 0.3% 3%  
416 0.1% 2%  
417 0.3% 2%  
418 0.1% 2%  
419 0.3% 2%  
420 0.2% 2%  
421 0.1% 1.4%  
422 0.3% 1.3%  
423 0% 1.0%  
424 0.3% 0.9%  
425 0% 0.7%  
426 0.1% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.6%  
428 0% 0.5%  
429 0% 0.4%  
430 0.1% 0.4%  
431 0% 0.3%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.2% 99.7%  
332 0.4% 99.6%  
333 0.3% 99.2%  
334 0.1% 98.9%  
335 0.3% 98.8%  
336 0.3% 98%  
337 1.1% 98%  
338 0.6% 97%  
339 0.9% 96%  
340 2% 96% Last Result
341 0.6% 94%  
342 2% 93%  
343 0.5% 91%  
344 5% 91%  
345 2% 85%  
346 4% 83%  
347 4% 79%  
348 3% 75%  
349 3% 72%  
350 2% 69%  
351 3% 67%  
352 3% 63%  
353 7% 61%  
354 9% 53% Median
355 4% 45% Majority
356 14% 41%  
357 3% 26%  
358 2% 24%  
359 1.0% 22%  
360 3% 21%  
361 3% 18%  
362 2% 15%  
363 3% 14%  
364 0.9% 10%  
365 2% 9%  
366 0.7% 8%  
367 0.8% 7%  
368 1.0% 6%  
369 0.6% 5%  
370 1.2% 4%  
371 0.6% 3%  
372 0.6% 3%  
373 0.4% 2%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.4%  
376 0% 1.3%  
377 0.2% 1.2%  
378 0% 1.1%  
379 0.1% 1.0%  
380 0.2% 1.0%  
381 0.3% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.7% 99.5%  
294 0% 98.8%  
295 0.2% 98.8%  
296 0.1% 98.5%  
297 0% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.5% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.2% 98%  
302 0.1% 97%  
303 0.1% 97%  
304 0.2% 97%  
305 0.1% 97%  
306 0.3% 97%  
307 0.4% 97%  
308 0.4% 96%  
309 0.4% 96%  
310 0.4% 95%  
311 0.5% 95%  
312 0.4% 95%  
313 1.3% 94%  
314 2% 93%  
315 1.0% 91%  
316 1.3% 90%  
317 1.4% 89%  
318 0.9% 88%  
319 2% 87%  
320 2% 84%  
321 2% 82%  
322 3% 80%  
323 3% 77%  
324 3% 74%  
325 5% 71%  
326 4% 66% Last Result
327 4% 62%  
328 4% 58%  
329 3% 54%  
330 2% 51% Median
331 10% 49%  
332 3% 39%  
333 12% 36%  
334 7% 24%  
335 1.5% 17%  
336 2% 16%  
337 3% 14%  
338 1.3% 11%  
339 3% 10%  
340 2% 7%  
341 2% 5%  
342 0.4% 4%  
343 1.0% 3%  
344 0.6% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.3%  
347 0.3% 0.9%  
348 0.2% 0.7%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.2% 99.2%  
293 0.8% 99.0%  
294 1.1% 98%  
295 2% 97%  
296 3% 95%  
297 2% 92%  
298 2% 90%  
299 2% 88%  
300 0.7% 86%  
301 0.7% 86%  
302 0.9% 85%  
303 4% 84%  
304 8% 80%  
305 7% 72%  
306 13% 65%  
307 5% 52%  
308 8% 48% Median
309 3% 40%  
310 2% 36%  
311 1.1% 34%  
312 0.8% 33%  
313 2% 32%  
314 2% 30%  
315 4% 28%  
316 4% 24%  
317 3% 19%  
318 4% 17%  
319 2% 13%  
320 2% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 1.0% 7%  
323 0.3% 6%  
324 0.4% 6%  
325 0.4% 6%  
326 0.6% 5%  
327 0.5% 5%  
328 0.6% 4%  
329 0.7% 4%  
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.1% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.5%  
338 0.3% 1.3%  
339 0.3% 1.0%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.2% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0% 99.5%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.4% 99.5%  
267 0% 99.1%  
268 0.1% 99.1%  
269 0.1% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98.8%  
271 0.2% 98.7%  
272 0.7% 98.6%  
273 0% 98%  
274 0.3% 98%  
275 0.4% 97%  
276 0.3% 97%  
277 0.6% 97%  
278 0.4% 96%  
279 0.3% 96%  
280 0.9% 95%  
281 0.8% 94%  
282 0.7% 94%  
283 1.1% 93%  
284 1.2% 92%  
285 2% 91%  
286 1.4% 88%  
287 2% 87%  
288 2% 85%  
289 3% 83%  
290 5% 80%  
291 4% 75%  
292 3% 72%  
293 7% 69%  
294 2% 61%  
295 13% 59%  
296 5% 46% Median
297 6% 41%  
298 7% 35%  
299 5% 29%  
300 3% 24% Last Result
301 2% 21%  
302 3% 18%  
303 3% 16%  
304 2% 13%  
305 2% 11%  
306 1.3% 9%  
307 0.8% 8%  
308 1.4% 7%  
309 1.1% 6%  
310 1.1% 4%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 0.7% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.6% 1.5%  
315 0.3% 0.9%  
316 0.3% 0.7%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0.1% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.4%  
231 0.7% 99.2%  
232 0.5% 98.5%  
233 0.5% 98%  
234 0.5% 98%  
235 1.0% 97%  
236 2% 96%  
237 2% 94%  
238 1.4% 92%  
239 2% 90%  
240 3% 88%  
241 3% 85%  
242 6% 82%  
243 2% 75%  
244 3% 73%  
245 4% 71%  
246 13% 66%  
247 4% 53%  
248 3% 49% Median
249 2% 46%  
250 11% 44%  
251 5% 33%  
252 4% 27%  
253 2% 24%  
254 2% 22%  
255 3% 20%  
256 2% 17%  
257 2% 15%  
258 0.7% 13%  
259 2% 12%  
260 2% 10%  
261 0.6% 8%  
262 2% 8%  
263 0.8% 6%  
264 0.4% 5%  
265 0.4% 5%  
266 0.9% 4%  
267 0.4% 3%  
268 0.6% 3%  
269 0.2% 2%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.2% 2%  
272 0.8% 2%  
273 0.1% 1.1%  
274 0.1% 1.0%  
275 0.2% 0.9%  
276 0% 0.7%  
277 0.4% 0.7%  
278 0% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0.1% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.3% 99.8%  
156 0.4% 99.5%  
157 0.5% 99.1%  
158 0.3% 98.6%  
159 0.5% 98%  
160 0.4% 98%  
161 0.8% 97%  
162 3% 97%  
163 3% 94%  
164 4% 90%  
165 5% 87%  
166 1.1% 82%  
167 0.8% 81%  
168 3% 80%  
169 3% 77%  
170 10% 75%  
171 9% 65%  
172 13% 56% Median
173 7% 43%  
174 2% 36%  
175 1.4% 34%  
176 2% 32%  
177 5% 30%  
178 4% 25%  
179 3% 21%  
180 4% 18%  
181 3% 14%  
182 1.1% 11%  
183 1.2% 10%  
184 0.8% 9%  
185 1.1% 8%  
186 0.9% 7%  
187 1.3% 6%  
188 2% 5%  
189 0.8% 3%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.2% 1.5%  
193 0.4% 1.3%  
194 0.1% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.8%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.2% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0% 99.4%  
120 0.2% 99.4%  
121 0.1% 99.2%  
122 0.2% 99.1%  
123 0.4% 98.8%  
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0.2% 98%  
126 0.3% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0.1% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0% 97%  
136 0% 97%  
137 0% 97%  
138 0% 97%  
139 0% 97%  
140 0.1% 97%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0.3% 97%  
143 0.4% 97%  
144 0.3% 96%  
145 0.6% 96%  
146 1.0% 95%  
147 0.8% 94%  
148 0.8% 94%  
149 0.6% 93%  
150 2% 92%  
151 2% 90%  
152 3% 88%  
153 2% 85%  
154 2% 83%  
155 5% 81%  
156 8% 76%  
157 5% 68%  
158 4% 63%  
159 8% 59%  
160 4% 51% Median
161 8% 47%  
162 6% 39%  
163 8% 32%  
164 7% 24%  
165 3% 17%  
166 2% 14%  
167 2% 11%  
168 2% 9%  
169 2% 8%  
170 1.1% 6%  
171 1.0% 5%  
172 1.3% 4%  
173 0.6% 3%  
174 0.7% 2%  
175 0.3% 1.3%  
176 0.3% 1.0%  
177 0.2% 0.8%  
178 0.2% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations