Opinion Poll by Kantar, 20–26 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 32.5% 31.2–33.9% 30.8–34.3% 30.5–34.7% 29.8–35.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.6–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.8% 6.1–9.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 243 232–252 229–255 227–258 222–264
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 112–127 109–131 108–131 104–135
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 112 104–121 102–122 101–124 97–127
Alternative für Deutschland 94 66 62–74 60–76 58–77 55–80
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 59 55–65 53–67 51–69 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 57 51–63 49–64 48–65 45–69
Die Linke 69 52 47–58 45–59 45–61 42–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.2% 99.8%  
222 0.2% 99.6%  
223 0.2% 99.5%  
224 0.2% 99.3%  
225 0.7% 99.1%  
226 0.5% 98%  
227 2% 98%  
228 0.7% 96%  
229 0.4% 95%  
230 2% 95%  
231 2% 92%  
232 0.9% 91%  
233 2% 90%  
234 2% 88%  
235 7% 86%  
236 3% 79%  
237 1.3% 75%  
238 4% 74%  
239 6% 70%  
240 7% 64%  
241 5% 58%  
242 2% 53%  
243 2% 50% Median
244 4% 49%  
245 11% 44%  
246 4% 33%  
247 5% 29%  
248 6% 25%  
249 2% 18%  
250 3% 16%  
251 1.0% 13%  
252 2% 12%  
253 0.8% 10%  
254 3% 9%  
255 2% 6%  
256 0.4% 4%  
257 0.3% 3%  
258 1.3% 3%  
259 0.7% 2%  
260 0.3% 1.2%  
261 0.1% 0.9%  
262 0.1% 0.7%  
263 0% 0.6%  
264 0.1% 0.6%  
265 0.3% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.4% 99.6%  
105 0.4% 99.2%  
106 0.6% 98.8%  
107 0.5% 98%  
108 1.4% 98%  
109 2% 96%  
110 1.0% 94%  
111 1.1% 93%  
112 6% 92%  
113 3% 86%  
114 3% 83%  
115 7% 80%  
116 10% 74%  
117 6% 64%  
118 4% 58%  
119 7% 53% Median
120 4% 46%  
121 7% 43%  
122 3% 36%  
123 7% 33%  
124 9% 26%  
125 3% 16%  
126 2% 13%  
127 2% 11%  
128 2% 9%  
129 1.3% 8%  
130 0.7% 6%  
131 3% 6%  
132 0.9% 2%  
133 0.5% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.1%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 99.5%  
99 0.7% 98.7%  
100 0.3% 98%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 3% 97%  
103 2% 94%  
104 3% 92%  
105 2% 90%  
106 3% 88%  
107 7% 85%  
108 7% 78%  
109 7% 71%  
110 5% 64%  
111 5% 59%  
112 12% 55% Median
113 10% 43%  
114 5% 33%  
115 1.4% 28%  
116 3% 27%  
117 6% 24%  
118 2% 18%  
119 2% 16%  
120 0.7% 14%  
121 5% 13%  
122 4% 7%  
123 0.9% 4%  
124 0.9% 3%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.5% 1.2%  
127 0.4% 0.8%  
128 0.2% 0.4%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 0.3% 99.5%  
57 0.7% 99.1%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 2% 93%  
62 4% 90%  
63 12% 87%  
64 7% 75%  
65 10% 68%  
66 9% 59% Median
67 6% 50%  
68 8% 43%  
69 6% 36%  
70 4% 29%  
71 4% 25%  
72 6% 21%  
73 3% 15%  
74 3% 12%  
75 4% 9%  
76 1.3% 5%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.4%  
80 0.6% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.8% 99.6%  
50 0.6% 98.8%  
51 1.0% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 2% 95%  
54 3% 94%  
55 3% 91%  
56 17% 88%  
57 8% 71%  
58 8% 63%  
59 6% 55% Median
60 6% 50%  
61 6% 44%  
62 7% 38%  
63 8% 31%  
64 10% 23%  
65 5% 13%  
66 3% 8%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.1% 4%  
69 0.7% 3%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.4%  
72 0.2% 1.0%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
47 1.4% 98.9%  
48 0.7% 98%  
49 4% 97%  
50 1.3% 93%  
51 7% 91%  
52 7% 84%  
53 7% 78%  
54 4% 70%  
55 9% 66%  
56 5% 57%  
57 14% 52% Median
58 12% 38%  
59 4% 26%  
60 3% 22%  
61 6% 19%  
62 2% 13%  
63 4% 11%  
64 4% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 0.7% 1.5%  
68 0.1% 0.7%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 0.9% 99.1%  
44 0.6% 98%  
45 3% 98%  
46 3% 95%  
47 7% 92%  
48 8% 86%  
49 4% 77%  
50 6% 73%  
51 9% 67%  
52 13% 58% Median
53 7% 45%  
54 6% 39%  
55 10% 33%  
56 4% 23%  
57 8% 19%  
58 5% 11%  
59 2% 6%  
60 0.8% 4%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 527 100% 522–539 520–541 514–542 510–549
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 478 100% 468–488 465–490 463–492 458–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 470 100% 460–481 458–483 456–485 450–490
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 425 100% 416–436 413–439 410–441 405–445
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 417 100% 407–428 405–431 402–432 397–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 411 100% 401–421 398–425 393–426 389–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 365 93% 355–376 352–379 351–382 344–386
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 358 65% 349–369 346–373 342–374 336–379
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 291 0% 281–301 278–304 276–306 271–313
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 284 0% 273–293 270–296 268–299 264–304
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 231 0% 221–240 218–243 216–245 212–253
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 180 0% 170–188 167–190 165–193 161–198
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 162–180 160–183 158–187 154–190

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0.2% 99.9%  
509 0.2% 99.8%  
510 0.3% 99.6%  
511 0.4% 99.3%  
512 0.3% 99.0%  
513 0.4% 98.7%  
514 1.0% 98%  
515 0.1% 97%  
516 0.4% 97%  
517 0.2% 97%  
518 0.1% 96%  
519 0.7% 96%  
520 1.2% 96%  
521 0.9% 94%  
522 4% 93%  
523 9% 90%  
524 7% 81%  
525 5% 74%  
526 12% 68%  
527 9% 56%  
528 2% 47%  
529 3% 45%  
530 0.9% 43%  
531 0.6% 42% Median
532 0.9% 41%  
533 2% 40%  
534 2% 39%  
535 6% 37%  
536 4% 32%  
537 6% 27%  
538 11% 21%  
539 3% 11%  
540 2% 7%  
541 1.5% 6%  
542 3% 4%  
543 0.2% 1.4%  
544 0.1% 1.3%  
545 0.1% 1.1%  
546 0% 1.1%  
547 0.1% 1.0%  
548 0.3% 0.9%  
549 0.1% 0.6%  
550 0.3% 0.5%  
551 0.1% 0.2%  
552 0.1% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.2% 99.8%  
457 0% 99.6%  
458 0.5% 99.6%  
459 0.1% 99.1%  
460 0.3% 98.9%  
461 0.8% 98.7%  
462 0.2% 98%  
463 0.5% 98%  
464 1.1% 97%  
465 1.1% 96%  
466 2% 95%  
467 3% 93%  
468 0.9% 91%  
469 8% 90%  
470 0.7% 81%  
471 4% 81%  
472 6% 77%  
473 5% 71%  
474 4% 66%  
475 2% 62%  
476 3% 60%  
477 6% 57%  
478 5% 51% Median
479 4% 46% Last Result
480 5% 42%  
481 3% 37%  
482 10% 34%  
483 2% 24%  
484 5% 23%  
485 3% 18%  
486 2% 15%  
487 1.2% 13%  
488 3% 12%  
489 3% 9%  
490 2% 6%  
491 0.3% 3%  
492 1.0% 3%  
493 0.5% 2%  
494 0.1% 2%  
495 0.6% 2%  
496 0.3% 1.1%  
497 0.4% 0.8%  
498 0.1% 0.4%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0.1% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0.1% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.9%  
448 0% 99.8%  
449 0.2% 99.8%  
450 0.1% 99.6%  
451 0.4% 99.5%  
452 0.3% 99.0%  
453 0.3% 98.8%  
454 0.5% 98.5%  
455 0.3% 98%  
456 0.6% 98%  
457 1.2% 97%  
458 3% 96%  
459 2% 93%  
460 2% 92%  
461 0.9% 89%  
462 4% 88%  
463 2% 84%  
464 5% 82%  
465 6% 77%  
466 6% 72%  
467 2% 65%  
468 5% 63%  
469 2% 58%  
470 11% 56%  
471 5% 45% Median
472 3% 41%  
473 3% 38%  
474 4% 35%  
475 3% 30%  
476 5% 27%  
477 4% 22%  
478 2% 18%  
479 3% 16%  
480 0.8% 13%  
481 4% 12%  
482 2% 8%  
483 2% 6%  
484 1.4% 4%  
485 0.7% 3%  
486 0.2% 2%  
487 0.8% 2%  
488 0.4% 1.2%  
489 0.3% 0.8%  
490 0.2% 0.5%  
491 0% 0.3%  
492 0.1% 0.3%  
493 0% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0.6% 99.5%  
406 0.2% 99.0%  
407 0.3% 98.7%  
408 0.3% 98%  
409 0.3% 98%  
410 0.7% 98%  
411 0.2% 97%  
412 0.8% 97%  
413 1.3% 96%  
414 2% 95%  
415 0.7% 93%  
416 4% 92%  
417 3% 88%  
418 2% 86%  
419 4% 83%  
420 5% 79% Last Result
421 11% 74%  
422 0.7% 63%  
423 5% 63%  
424 7% 57%  
425 8% 51% Median
426 4% 43%  
427 2% 39%  
428 4% 37%  
429 3% 33%  
430 2% 31%  
431 1.1% 28%  
432 6% 27%  
433 3% 22%  
434 6% 19%  
435 1.0% 12%  
436 3% 11%  
437 1.3% 8%  
438 0.3% 7%  
439 2% 7%  
440 0.1% 4%  
441 2% 4%  
442 0.7% 2%  
443 0.6% 2%  
444 0.1% 1.0%  
445 0.5% 0.9%  
446 0.1% 0.4%  
447 0.1% 0.3%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.9%  
394 0.2% 99.8%  
395 0% 99.7%  
396 0.1% 99.6%  
397 0.1% 99.5%  
398 0.2% 99.4%  
399 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
400 0.2% 99.0%  
401 1.0% 98.8%  
402 0.7% 98%  
403 0.4% 97%  
404 0.8% 97%  
405 2% 96%  
406 3% 94%  
407 1.0% 91%  
408 1.3% 90%  
409 1.4% 89%  
410 11% 87%  
411 0.9% 76%  
412 1.3% 75%  
413 7% 74%  
414 2% 67%  
415 8% 64%  
416 4% 56%  
417 5% 53%  
418 3% 48%  
419 4% 45% Median
420 3% 40%  
421 4% 37%  
422 2% 34%  
423 1.0% 31%  
424 1.3% 30%  
425 3% 29%  
426 10% 26%  
427 6% 16%  
428 0.7% 10%  
429 2% 10%  
430 1.4% 8%  
431 3% 7%  
432 1.2% 4%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.2% 2%  
435 0.5% 2%  
436 0.7% 2%  
437 0.2% 0.9%  
438 0.3% 0.7%  
439 0.1% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.3% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.6%  
390 0.2% 99.5%  
391 0.6% 99.3%  
392 0.4% 98.7%  
393 0.9% 98%  
394 0.3% 97%  
395 0.9% 97%  
396 0.6% 96%  
397 0.4% 96%  
398 2% 95%  
399 1.2% 94%  
400 1.3% 93%  
401 8% 91%  
402 0.7% 83%  
403 3% 82%  
404 5% 80%  
405 6% 75%  
406 3% 69%  
407 3% 67%  
408 2% 64%  
409 4% 62%  
410 7% 58%  
411 2% 52%  
412 6% 50% Median
413 3% 44%  
414 12% 40%  
415 2% 28%  
416 5% 26%  
417 5% 21%  
418 1.0% 16%  
419 1.4% 15%  
420 2% 14%  
421 2% 12%  
422 0.5% 10%  
423 2% 9%  
424 1.0% 8%  
425 3% 7%  
426 0.9% 3%  
427 1.1% 2%  
428 0.1% 1.2%  
429 0.5% 1.0%  
430 0.1% 0.6%  
431 0.1% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0.1% 0.4%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0.1% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.2% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.6%  
345 0.2% 99.4%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0.4% 99.1%  
348 0.3% 98.7%  
349 0.4% 98%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 2% 98%  
352 0.8% 96%  
353 0.9% 95%  
354 1.4% 94%  
355 3% 93% Majority
356 6% 90%  
357 1.1% 84%  
358 4% 83%  
359 3% 78%  
360 4% 75%  
361 2% 71%  
362 2% 69%  
363 4% 67%  
364 3% 63%  
365 10% 59%  
366 2% 50% Median
367 3% 48%  
368 7% 45%  
369 9% 38%  
370 2% 30%  
371 5% 27%  
372 1.3% 23%  
373 4% 21%  
374 4% 17%  
375 0.8% 13%  
376 3% 13%  
377 2% 9%  
378 1.4% 8%  
379 2% 6%  
380 0.6% 5%  
381 0.6% 4%  
382 1.2% 3%  
383 1.0% 2%  
384 0.3% 1.2%  
385 0.3% 0.9%  
386 0.3% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100% Last Result
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.2% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.7%  
336 0.3% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.4%  
338 0.4% 99.3%  
339 0.1% 98.9%  
340 0.1% 98.8%  
341 0.9% 98.7%  
342 0.4% 98%  
343 0.4% 97%  
344 0.8% 97%  
345 0.5% 96%  
346 1.4% 96%  
347 2% 94%  
348 1.4% 93%  
349 5% 91%  
350 5% 86%  
351 1.4% 82%  
352 3% 80%  
353 8% 78%  
354 4% 70%  
355 2% 65% Majority
356 2% 63%  
357 5% 61%  
358 14% 56%  
359 3% 42% Median
360 3% 40%  
361 7% 36%  
362 1.4% 29%  
363 3% 28%  
364 1.0% 25%  
365 3% 24%  
366 4% 21%  
367 1.0% 17%  
368 2% 16%  
369 6% 14%  
370 1.0% 9%  
371 2% 8%  
372 0.2% 6%  
373 2% 6%  
374 1.1% 3%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.2% 1.4%  
378 0.6% 1.1%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.5%  
381 0.3% 0.5%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.2% 99.6%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0.8% 99.3%  
274 0.5% 98.5%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.9% 98%  
277 0.9% 97%  
278 2% 96%  
279 1.4% 93%  
280 1.1% 92%  
281 1.0% 91%  
282 3% 90%  
283 5% 87%  
284 2% 83%  
285 9% 80%  
286 3% 72%  
287 2% 69%  
288 6% 67%  
289 4% 61%  
290 5% 58% Median
291 4% 53%  
292 9% 49%  
293 3% 40%  
294 7% 37%  
295 2% 29%  
296 1.2% 28%  
297 3% 26%  
298 3% 23%  
299 3% 20%  
300 7% 17% Last Result
301 2% 10%  
302 1.2% 9%  
303 2% 7%  
304 1.4% 5%  
305 0.8% 4%  
306 1.1% 3%  
307 0.5% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.2% 1.5%  
310 0.3% 1.2%  
311 0.2% 1.0%  
312 0.1% 0.8%  
313 0.4% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.5% 99.6%  
265 0.1% 99.1%  
266 0.6% 99.0%  
267 0.7% 98%  
268 2% 98%  
269 0.1% 96%  
270 2% 96%  
271 0.3% 93%  
272 1.3% 93%  
273 3% 92%  
274 1.0% 89%  
275 6% 88%  
276 3% 81%  
277 6% 78%  
278 1.1% 73%  
279 2% 72%  
280 3% 69%  
281 4% 67%  
282 2% 63%  
283 4% 61% Median
284 8% 57%  
285 7% 49%  
286 5% 43%  
287 0.7% 37%  
288 11% 37%  
289 5% 26% Last Result
290 4% 21%  
291 2% 17%  
292 3% 14%  
293 4% 12%  
294 0.7% 8%  
295 2% 7%  
296 1.3% 5%  
297 0.8% 4%  
298 0.2% 3%  
299 0.7% 3%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.3% 2%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.2% 1.3%  
304 0.6% 1.0%  
305 0.1% 0.5%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.3% 99.6%  
213 0.2% 99.3%  
214 0.2% 99.1%  
215 0.8% 98.8%  
216 0.7% 98%  
217 0.6% 97%  
218 2% 97%  
219 0.6% 94%  
220 3% 94% Last Result
221 1.2% 91%  
222 3% 90%  
223 3% 87%  
224 2% 84%  
225 4% 82%  
226 5% 77%  
227 4% 72%  
228 4% 68%  
229 8% 64%  
230 4% 56%  
231 2% 52% Median
232 6% 50%  
233 3% 43%  
234 2% 40%  
235 4% 38%  
236 8% 34%  
237 5% 26%  
238 5% 21%  
239 3% 16%  
240 4% 13%  
241 1.2% 9%  
242 2% 8%  
243 1.1% 6%  
244 1.3% 5%  
245 1.3% 4%  
246 0.3% 2%  
247 0.3% 2%  
248 0.4% 2%  
249 0.3% 1.3%  
250 0.2% 1.0%  
251 0% 0.8%  
252 0.1% 0.8%  
253 0.3% 0.6%  
254 0% 0.3%  
255 0.2% 0.3%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.3% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.5%  
162 0.1% 99.3%  
163 0.4% 99.2%  
164 0.9% 98.8%  
165 0.6% 98%  
166 0.9% 97%  
167 2% 96%  
168 2% 95%  
169 1.0% 92%  
170 3% 91%  
171 2% 89%  
172 6% 86%  
173 4% 80%  
174 3% 76%  
175 4% 73%  
176 4% 69%  
177 6% 65%  
178 3% 59% Median
179 6% 57%  
180 13% 51%  
181 6% 38%  
182 2% 32%  
183 3% 30%  
184 4% 26%  
185 3% 23%  
186 7% 20%  
187 3% 13%  
188 4% 11%  
189 2% 7%  
190 0.9% 6%  
191 0.8% 5%  
192 0.7% 4%  
193 1.1% 3%  
194 1.0% 2%  
195 0.3% 1.3%  
196 0.3% 1.0%  
197 0.2% 0.7%  
198 0.1% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.7%  
154 0.4% 99.6%  
155 0.2% 99.3%  
156 0.5% 99.1%  
157 0.4% 98.6%  
158 0.9% 98%  
159 2% 97%  
160 0.8% 95%  
161 1.2% 95%  
162 5% 93%  
163 3% 88%  
164 3% 85%  
165 4% 82%  
166 1.0% 77%  
167 7% 76%  
168 3% 70%  
169 4% 67%  
170 4% 63%  
171 8% 59% Median
172 7% 51%  
173 4% 44%  
174 4% 40%  
175 0.6% 36%  
176 14% 36%  
177 3% 21%  
178 2% 18%  
179 5% 16%  
180 3% 11%  
181 0.9% 9%  
182 1.2% 8%  
183 2% 6%  
184 1.0% 5%  
185 1.0% 4%  
186 0.2% 3%  
187 1.3% 3%  
188 0.7% 1.3%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.5%  
191 0.2% 0.4%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations