Opinion Poll by YouGov, 20–26 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.6–31.6% 28.2–32.0% 27.8–32.4% 27.1–33.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.6% 9.1–13.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.3% 5.4–8.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 234 222–248 215–254 213–256 210–262
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 114–136 112–140 109–142 105–148
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 107–129 104–131 101–134 98–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–96 75–98 73–100 69–105
Die Linke 69 73 63–80 62–82 59–83 57–88
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 47–61 47–63 45–65 42–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 0 0–44 0–45 0–47 0–51

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0.1% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0% 99.7%  
206 0% 99.7%  
207 0% 99.7%  
208 0% 99.7%  
209 0.1% 99.6%  
210 0.1% 99.6%  
211 0.6% 99.4%  
212 1.0% 98.8%  
213 1.2% 98%  
214 1.4% 97%  
215 0.4% 95%  
216 0.6% 95%  
217 0.3% 94%  
218 0.1% 94%  
219 0.3% 94%  
220 0.5% 94%  
221 2% 93%  
222 3% 91%  
223 5% 88%  
224 7% 83%  
225 2% 76%  
226 2% 75%  
227 0.8% 73%  
228 0.6% 72%  
229 0.9% 72%  
230 3% 71%  
231 5% 68%  
232 5% 63%  
233 6% 59%  
234 4% 53% Median
235 3% 49%  
236 5% 46%  
237 3% 41%  
238 9% 37%  
239 1.2% 29%  
240 0.1% 27%  
241 0.5% 27%  
242 1.3% 27%  
243 2% 26%  
244 2% 23%  
245 2% 21%  
246 5% 19%  
247 3% 14%  
248 2% 11%  
249 0.3% 8%  
250 0.8% 8%  
251 0.5% 7%  
252 0.2% 7%  
253 0.5% 6%  
254 2% 6%  
255 1.2% 4%  
256 0.6% 3%  
257 0.5% 2%  
258 0.2% 2%  
259 0.6% 2%  
260 0.5% 1.1%  
261 0.1% 0.6%  
262 0.1% 0.5%  
263 0% 0.4%  
264 0% 0.4%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0.1% 0.3%  
268 0.1% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.1% 99.6%  
106 0.1% 99.5%  
107 0.2% 99.4%  
108 0.4% 99.1%  
109 1.3% 98.7%  
110 0.7% 97%  
111 2% 97%  
112 3% 95%  
113 2% 92%  
114 0.5% 91%  
115 3% 90%  
116 5% 87%  
117 1.0% 82%  
118 2% 81%  
119 3% 79%  
120 5% 76%  
121 3% 71%  
122 2% 69%  
123 3% 66%  
124 8% 64%  
125 2% 56%  
126 2% 54%  
127 10% 52% Median
128 3% 41%  
129 2% 38%  
130 3% 36%  
131 3% 33%  
132 2% 30%  
133 12% 28%  
134 0.7% 16%  
135 2% 16%  
136 4% 14%  
137 0.5% 10%  
138 0.9% 9%  
139 3% 8%  
140 1.4% 5%  
141 0.3% 4%  
142 1.3% 4%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.1% 2%  
145 0.4% 1.5%  
146 0.1% 1.1%  
147 0.5% 1.0%  
148 0.1% 0.5%  
149 0% 0.4%  
150 0.3% 0.4%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.5%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 1.0% 99.1%  
101 0.6% 98%  
102 0.4% 97%  
103 0.4% 97%  
104 2% 97%  
105 0.7% 95%  
106 2% 94%  
107 2% 92%  
108 2% 90%  
109 5% 88%  
110 2% 83%  
111 2% 81%  
112 7% 79%  
113 3% 73%  
114 3% 69%  
115 2% 66%  
116 3% 64%  
117 7% 62%  
118 4% 55%  
119 2% 51% Median
120 2% 49%  
121 7% 47%  
122 2% 39%  
123 3% 38%  
124 2% 35%  
125 0.9% 33%  
126 4% 33%  
127 11% 29%  
128 0.5% 18%  
129 9% 17%  
130 0.1% 8%  
131 4% 8%  
132 0.5% 4%  
133 0.2% 3%  
134 0.5% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.1% 2%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 0.2% 1.4%  
139 0.6% 1.2%  
140 0.1% 0.6%  
141 0.3% 0.5%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 0.2% 99.2%  
71 0.6% 99.0%  
72 0.6% 98%  
73 1.5% 98%  
74 1.3% 96%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 4% 91%  
78 7% 87%  
79 2% 80%  
80 6% 79%  
81 2% 72%  
82 7% 70%  
83 10% 64%  
84 5% 53% Median
85 3% 48%  
86 2% 45%  
87 7% 43%  
88 3% 35%  
89 5% 32%  
90 2% 27%  
91 1.2% 25%  
92 7% 24%  
93 3% 17%  
94 2% 14% Last Result
95 1.2% 12%  
96 3% 11%  
97 0.1% 8%  
98 4% 8%  
99 0.3% 4%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.3% 2%  
102 0.5% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.9%  
105 0.2% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.2%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0% 99.5%  
57 0.3% 99.5%  
58 1.3% 99.2%  
59 0.5% 98%  
60 0.9% 97%  
61 1.3% 96%  
62 5% 95%  
63 1.3% 91%  
64 1.4% 89%  
65 8% 88%  
66 5% 80%  
67 3% 74%  
68 2% 72%  
69 7% 70% Last Result
70 8% 62%  
71 2% 54%  
72 2% 52%  
73 15% 51% Median
74 12% 36%  
75 1.3% 24%  
76 2% 22%  
77 8% 21%  
78 2% 13%  
79 0.4% 10%  
80 1.2% 10%  
81 2% 9%  
82 5% 7%  
83 0.1% 3%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 0.7% 2%  
86 0.4% 1.1%  
87 0.1% 0.7%  
88 0% 0.5%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.3% 99.5%  
44 0.7% 99.2%  
45 2% 98.5%  
46 1.5% 97% Last Result
47 5% 95%  
48 6% 90%  
49 1.2% 84%  
50 5% 83%  
51 11% 78%  
52 4% 67%  
53 10% 63%  
54 16% 53% Median
55 4% 37%  
56 2% 33%  
57 7% 31%  
58 0.5% 24%  
59 4% 23%  
60 3% 20%  
61 10% 17%  
62 0.6% 7%  
63 2% 7%  
64 0.1% 5%  
65 2% 5%  
66 0.1% 2%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.1% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.6%  
70 0% 0.4%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 0% 45%  
8 0% 45%  
9 0% 45%  
10 0% 45%  
11 0% 45%  
12 0% 45%  
13 0% 45%  
14 0% 45%  
15 0% 45%  
16 0% 45%  
17 0% 45%  
18 0% 45%  
19 0% 45%  
20 0% 45%  
21 0% 45%  
22 0% 45%  
23 0% 45%  
24 0% 45%  
25 0% 45%  
26 0% 45%  
27 0% 45%  
28 0% 45%  
29 0% 45%  
30 0% 45%  
31 0% 45%  
32 0% 45%  
33 0% 45%  
34 0% 45%  
35 0% 45%  
36 0% 45%  
37 0% 45%  
38 1.0% 45%  
39 3% 44%  
40 16% 41%  
41 3% 25%  
42 7% 21%  
43 2% 14%  
44 6% 12%  
45 1.2% 6%  
46 1.1% 5%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 0.6% 1.4%  
50 0.2% 0.7%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 540 100% 508–554 506–560 502–563 495–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 430 100% 421–446 418–452 412–459 403–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 426 100% 411–442 405–445 404–449 396–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 419 100% 397–430 394–439 386–444 380–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 410 100% 386–426 384–431 379–433 376–440
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 392 100% 374–417 373–420 371–423 367–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 375 83% 352–398 349–402 346–405 342–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 305 0% 289–330 284–333 282–339 275–343
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 292–335 289–336 286–338 283–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 263 0% 241–284 239–291 234–293 228–301
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 226–260 221–265 219–266 214–272
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 174–204 170–207 168–208 161–216
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 131 0% 118–160 113–166 109–170 105–173

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0.1% 99.9%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.8%  
493 0% 99.8%  
494 0.1% 99.7%  
495 0.3% 99.6%  
496 0.1% 99.3%  
497 0.1% 99.2%  
498 0.2% 99.1%  
499 0.3% 98.9%  
500 0.2% 98.6%  
501 0.4% 98%  
502 0.6% 98%  
503 0.6% 97%  
504 0.6% 97%  
505 0.5% 96%  
506 1.4% 96%  
507 0.7% 94%  
508 4% 93%  
509 1.1% 90%  
510 2% 88%  
511 0.4% 86%  
512 6% 86%  
513 0.9% 79%  
514 2% 79%  
515 2% 76%  
516 1.0% 74%  
517 1.1% 73%  
518 4% 72%  
519 4% 68%  
520 0.3% 65%  
521 2% 64%  
522 1.1% 62%  
523 0.6% 61%  
524 0.4% 60%  
525 0.7% 60%  
526 1.3% 59%  
527 0.7% 58%  
528 0.6% 57%  
529 0.5% 57%  
530 0.4% 56%  
531 0.5% 56%  
532 0.2% 55%  
533 0.3% 55%  
534 0.6% 55% Median
535 0.1% 54%  
536 2% 54%  
537 0.1% 52%  
538 0.8% 52%  
539 0.7% 51%  
540 2% 50%  
541 0.5% 49%  
542 0.9% 48%  
543 4% 47%  
544 1.2% 43%  
545 4% 42%  
546 2% 38%  
547 1.4% 36%  
548 1.2% 35%  
549 3% 34%  
550 3% 30%  
551 0.9% 27%  
552 15% 26%  
553 0.9% 11%  
554 2% 10%  
555 0.5% 8%  
556 0.3% 7%  
557 0.6% 7%  
558 1.0% 6%  
559 0.2% 5%  
560 0.3% 5%  
561 1.3% 5%  
562 0.5% 4%  
563 0.6% 3%  
564 1.4% 2%  
565 0% 1.0%  
566 0.3% 1.0%  
567 0.2% 0.7%  
568 0.1% 0.5%  
569 0% 0.4%  
570 0.3% 0.4%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0.1% 0.1%  
573 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0.1% 99.9%  
401 0.2% 99.8%  
402 0% 99.6%  
403 0.1% 99.6%  
404 0.3% 99.5%  
405 0.7% 99.2%  
406 0.2% 98%  
407 0.1% 98%  
408 0.1% 98%  
409 0.2% 98%  
410 0.2% 98%  
411 0.1% 98%  
412 0% 98%  
413 0.1% 97%  
414 0.2% 97%  
415 0.3% 97% Median
416 0.1% 97%  
417 0.1% 97%  
418 3% 97%  
419 2% 94%  
420 2% 93%  
421 3% 91%  
422 1.3% 87%  
423 5% 86%  
424 7% 80%  
425 13% 74%  
426 4% 61%  
427 1.0% 57%  
428 3% 56%  
429 1.4% 53%  
430 2% 52%  
431 0.3% 49%  
432 0.4% 49%  
433 0.3% 49%  
434 0.5% 48%  
435 0.5% 48%  
436 0.8% 47%  
437 1.0% 46%  
438 2% 45%  
439 3% 43%  
440 6% 40%  
441 5% 34%  
442 5% 29%  
443 4% 24%  
444 5% 20%  
445 4% 16%  
446 2% 11%  
447 2% 9%  
448 0.6% 7%  
449 0.4% 6%  
450 0.7% 6%  
451 0.1% 5%  
452 0.1% 5%  
453 0.1% 5%  
454 0.1% 5%  
455 0.2% 5%  
456 0.2% 5%  
457 0.5% 4%  
458 0.3% 4%  
459 1.4% 4%  
460 0.3% 2%  
461 0.6% 2%  
462 0.2% 1.2%  
463 0.3% 1.0%  
464 0.3% 0.7%  
465 0.2% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
390 0.1% 100%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0% 99.8%  
393 0% 99.8%  
394 0% 99.8%  
395 0.1% 99.8%  
396 0.3% 99.7%  
397 0.1% 99.4%  
398 0.2% 99.3%  
399 0.3% 99.1%  
400 0.4% 98.7%  
401 0.2% 98%  
402 0.1% 98%  
403 0% 98%  
404 2% 98%  
405 1.5% 96%  
406 0.7% 94%  
407 0.2% 94% Median
408 0% 94%  
409 0.7% 94%  
410 3% 93%  
411 1.1% 90%  
412 0.8% 89%  
413 0.3% 88%  
414 0.2% 88%  
415 3% 88%  
416 3% 85%  
417 0.6% 82%  
418 1.2% 81%  
419 9% 80%  
420 4% 70%  
421 2% 67%  
422 3% 65%  
423 1.3% 62%  
424 1.4% 61%  
425 9% 59%  
426 4% 51%  
427 3% 46%  
428 1.1% 43%  
429 0.6% 42%  
430 4% 42%  
431 6% 38%  
432 5% 32%  
433 1.0% 26%  
434 0.9% 25%  
435 1.0% 24%  
436 4% 23%  
437 4% 19%  
438 0.8% 15%  
439 0.8% 15%  
440 3% 14%  
441 0.6% 11%  
442 2% 10%  
443 0.6% 9%  
444 0.6% 8%  
445 3% 7%  
446 0.3% 5%  
447 1.0% 4%  
448 0.2% 3%  
449 0.9% 3%  
450 0.4% 2%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.2% 1.5%  
453 0.3% 1.2%  
454 0.1% 0.9%  
455 0.2% 0.9%  
456 0.2% 0.6%  
457 0% 0.4%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.7%  
380 0.2% 99.6%  
381 0.5% 99.4%  
382 0.4% 98.9%  
383 0.6% 98.5%  
384 0.1% 98%  
385 0.2% 98%  
386 0.2% 98%  
387 0.3% 97%  
388 0.1% 97%  
389 0.3% 97%  
390 0.1% 97%  
391 0.4% 97%  
392 0.4% 96%  
393 0.9% 96%  
394 0.5% 95%  
395 2% 95%  
396 2% 93%  
397 2% 91%  
398 0.8% 89%  
399 4% 88%  
400 7% 84%  
401 6% 77%  
402 4% 71%  
403 2% 67%  
404 2% 65%  
405 2% 63%  
406 2% 61%  
407 0.5% 59%  
408 0.2% 59%  
409 0.3% 59%  
410 0.4% 58%  
411 0.2% 58%  
412 0.2% 58%  
413 0.3% 58%  
414 0.5% 57%  
415 0.7% 57% Median
416 0.1% 56%  
417 0.4% 56%  
418 4% 56%  
419 2% 52%  
420 2% 50%  
421 4% 48%  
422 0.8% 44%  
423 6% 43%  
424 7% 38%  
425 13% 31%  
426 3% 18%  
427 0.8% 15%  
428 3% 14%  
429 1.4% 12%  
430 2% 10%  
431 0.2% 8%  
432 0.1% 8%  
433 0.3% 8%  
434 0.4% 7%  
435 0.1% 7%  
436 0% 7%  
437 0.1% 7%  
438 0.2% 7%  
439 2% 6%  
440 0.3% 5%  
441 0.2% 5%  
442 0.2% 4%  
443 0.3% 4%  
444 2% 4%  
445 0.9% 2%  
446 0.3% 0.9%  
447 0.1% 0.6%  
448 0.2% 0.5%  
449 0.2% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.2% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.6%  
374 0% 99.5%  
375 0% 99.5%  
376 0.1% 99.5%  
377 0.7% 99.4%  
378 1.2% 98.7%  
379 0.3% 98%  
380 0.2% 97%  
381 0% 97%  
382 0.3% 97%  
383 1.2% 97%  
384 2% 95%  
385 3% 94%  
386 1.1% 91%  
387 0% 89%  
388 0.2% 89%  
389 0.5% 89%  
390 4% 89%  
391 5% 85%  
392 4% 80%  
393 0.6% 75%  
394 0% 75%  
395 0.3% 75%  
396 6% 74%  
397 3% 69%  
398 2% 65%  
399 1.2% 63% Last Result
400 0.4% 62%  
401 0.3% 61%  
402 0.2% 61%  
403 1.4% 61%  
404 4% 59%  
405 2% 55%  
406 0.9% 53%  
407 0.2% 52% Median
408 0% 52%  
409 0.9% 52%  
410 3% 51%  
411 2% 47%  
412 0.8% 45%  
413 0.2% 45%  
414 0.2% 44%  
415 3% 44%  
416 3% 41%  
417 0.6% 38%  
418 1.0% 37%  
419 9% 36%  
420 3% 27%  
421 1.5% 24%  
422 3% 23%  
423 0.4% 20%  
424 1.0% 20%  
425 8% 19%  
426 3% 11%  
427 0.8% 8%  
428 0.4% 7%  
429 0.2% 7%  
430 1.0% 7%  
431 2% 6%  
432 0.9% 4%  
433 0.5% 3%  
434 0.7% 2%  
435 0.4% 2%  
436 0.2% 1.2%  
437 0.1% 1.1%  
438 0.1% 0.9%  
439 0.1% 0.8%  
440 0.3% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.2% 99.9%  
367 0.4% 99.7%  
368 0.7% 99.3%  
369 0.5% 98.6%  
370 0.2% 98%  
371 2% 98%  
372 1.0% 96% Median
373 0.9% 95%  
374 5% 94%  
375 12% 89%  
376 0.9% 77%  
377 2% 76%  
378 4% 74%  
379 3% 70%  
380 2% 67%  
381 3% 65%  
382 0.6% 62%  
383 3% 62%  
384 1.3% 59%  
385 0.7% 58%  
386 1.3% 57%  
387 1.2% 56%  
388 1.4% 55%  
389 1.3% 53%  
390 0.3% 52%  
391 1.3% 52%  
392 9% 50%  
393 0.6% 41%  
394 0.4% 41%  
395 2% 40%  
396 0.9% 38%  
397 0.7% 37%  
398 0.7% 37%  
399 0.4% 36%  
400 2% 36%  
401 1.0% 33%  
402 3% 32%  
403 1.3% 29%  
404 0.3% 28%  
405 0.5% 27%  
406 0.3% 27%  
407 0.5% 27%  
408 0.3% 26%  
409 0.7% 26%  
410 0.7% 25%  
411 0.5% 24%  
412 2% 24%  
413 3% 22%  
414 0.9% 19%  
415 0.9% 18%  
416 4% 17%  
417 4% 13%  
418 1.2% 10%  
419 4% 9%  
420 1.2% 5% Last Result
421 0.8% 4%  
422 0.4% 3%  
423 0.4% 3%  
424 0.4% 2%  
425 1.3% 2%  
426 0.1% 0.5%  
427 0.2% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0% 100%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
341 0% 99.7%  
342 0.3% 99.6%  
343 0.5% 99.4%  
344 0.2% 98.8%  
345 1.1% 98.7%  
346 0.8% 98%  
347 1.0% 97%  
348 0.5% 96%  
349 1.0% 95%  
350 2% 94%  
351 2% 93%  
352 6% 91%  
353 0.5% 84%  
354 0.6% 84%  
355 0.4% 83% Majority
356 0.7% 83%  
357 0.4% 82%  
358 0.6% 82%  
359 0.4% 81%  
360 0.3% 81%  
361 0.2% 80%  
362 0.2% 80%  
363 0.3% 80%  
364 0.4% 80%  
365 0.5% 79%  
366 0.5% 79%  
367 1.0% 78%  
368 2% 77%  
369 1.2% 76%  
370 1.1% 75%  
371 4% 73%  
372 2% 70% Median
373 3% 67%  
374 6% 65%  
375 15% 59%  
376 4% 43%  
377 6% 39%  
378 4% 34%  
379 3% 30%  
380 3% 26%  
381 3% 23%  
382 0.9% 20%  
383 3% 19%  
384 2% 16%  
385 0.6% 15%  
386 1.0% 14%  
387 0.9% 13%  
388 0.4% 12%  
389 0.3% 12%  
390 0.1% 11%  
391 0.1% 11%  
392 0.1% 11%  
393 0.1% 11%  
394 0.2% 11%  
395 0.1% 11%  
396 0.2% 11%  
397 0.4% 11%  
398 0.3% 10%  
399 0.1% 10%  
400 2% 10%  
401 0.9% 8%  
402 3% 7%  
403 1.2% 4%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.4% 3%  
406 0.2% 2%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.1% 2%  
409 0.6% 1.5%  
410 0.4% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.5%  
412 0% 0.3%  
413 0.2% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.2% 99.8%  
275 0.4% 99.6%  
276 0.3% 99.3%  
277 0.1% 99.0%  
278 0.2% 98.9%  
279 0.4% 98.7%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 1.3% 98%  
283 0.9% 97%  
284 0.9% 96%  
285 0.1% 95%  
286 0.6% 95%  
287 3% 94%  
288 1.0% 91% Median
289 0.2% 90%  
290 1.0% 90%  
291 4% 89%  
292 9% 84%  
293 2% 75%  
294 2% 74%  
295 1.3% 72%  
296 4% 71%  
297 3% 67%  
298 1.1% 64%  
299 0.7% 62%  
300 1.4% 62%  
301 2% 60%  
302 2% 58%  
303 0.6% 57%  
304 4% 56%  
305 3% 52%  
306 0.6% 50%  
307 1.4% 49%  
308 1.5% 48%  
309 1.4% 46%  
310 1.0% 45%  
311 1.3% 44%  
312 0.9% 42%  
313 2% 41%  
314 4% 40%  
315 4% 36%  
316 3% 32%  
317 0.5% 29%  
318 1.5% 29%  
319 0.9% 27%  
320 3% 27%  
321 0.7% 24%  
322 2% 23%  
323 2% 21%  
324 3% 19%  
325 3% 16%  
326 1.1% 13% Last Result
327 0.6% 12%  
328 0.7% 12%  
329 0.4% 11%  
330 1.4% 11%  
331 3% 9%  
332 1.0% 6%  
333 1.1% 5%  
334 0.5% 4%  
335 0.3% 4%  
336 0.2% 3%  
337 0.3% 3%  
338 0.3% 3%  
339 0.3% 3%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.8% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.3%  
343 0.6% 1.0%  
344 0% 0.5%  
345 0% 0.4%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.2% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 1.3% 99.5%  
285 0.4% 98%  
286 0.4% 98%  
287 0.4% 97%  
288 0.8% 97%  
289 1.2% 96% Last Result
290 4% 95%  
291 1.2% 91%  
292 4% 90%  
293 4% 87%  
294 0.9% 83%  
295 0.9% 82%  
296 3% 81%  
297 2% 78%  
298 0.5% 76%  
299 0.7% 76%  
300 0.7% 75%  
301 0.3% 74%  
302 0.5% 74%  
303 0.3% 73%  
304 0.5% 73%  
305 0.3% 73%  
306 1.3% 72%  
307 3% 71%  
308 1.0% 68%  
309 2% 67%  
310 0.4% 64%  
311 0.7% 64%  
312 0.7% 63%  
313 0.9% 63%  
314 2% 62%  
315 0.4% 60%  
316 0.6% 59%  
317 9% 59%  
318 1.3% 50%  
319 0.3% 48% Median
320 1.3% 48%  
321 1.4% 47%  
322 1.2% 45%  
323 1.3% 44%  
324 0.7% 43%  
325 1.3% 42%  
326 3% 41%  
327 0.6% 38%  
328 3% 38%  
329 2% 35%  
330 3% 33%  
331 4% 30%  
332 2% 26%  
333 0.9% 24%  
334 12% 23%  
335 5% 11%  
336 0.9% 6%  
337 1.0% 5%  
338 2% 4%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.7% 1.4%  
342 0.4% 0.7%  
343 0.2% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0.1% 100%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0% 99.7%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.6%  
229 0.6% 99.4%  
230 0.2% 98.8%  
231 0% 98.6%  
232 0% 98.6%  
233 0.4% 98.6%  
234 1.4% 98%  
235 0.6% 97%  
236 0.5% 96%  
237 0.6% 96%  
238 0.1% 95%  
239 0.4% 95%  
240 2% 95%  
241 3% 92%  
242 0.3% 89%  
243 0.2% 89%  
244 0.1% 89%  
245 1.0% 89%  
246 2% 88% Median
247 1.4% 86%  
248 0.5% 84%  
249 0% 84%  
250 0.2% 84%  
251 1.4% 83%  
252 4% 82%  
253 4% 78%  
254 1.3% 74%  
255 0.3% 72%  
256 1.0% 72%  
257 1.2% 71%  
258 5% 70%  
259 2% 64%  
260 11% 62%  
261 0.8% 51%  
262 0.2% 50%  
263 2% 50%  
264 1.3% 48%  
265 7% 47%  
266 2% 40%  
267 3% 38%  
268 3% 35%  
269 1.4% 32%  
270 1.0% 31%  
271 1.1% 30%  
272 1.3% 29%  
273 1.1% 27%  
274 3% 26%  
275 0.9% 24%  
276 2% 23%  
277 0.9% 21%  
278 0.4% 20%  
279 0.6% 20%  
280 1.1% 19%  
281 0.9% 18%  
282 0.4% 17%  
283 0.4% 17%  
284 7% 17%  
285 0.2% 9%  
286 2% 9%  
287 0.1% 7%  
288 0.7% 7%  
289 0.3% 6%  
290 1.0% 6%  
291 0.6% 5%  
292 1.5% 5%  
293 1.4% 3%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.2% 1.3%  
297 0.2% 1.0%  
298 0.1% 0.8%  
299 0.1% 0.7%  
300 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
301 0.3% 0.5%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0.1% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.4% 99.7%  
215 0.3% 99.3%  
216 1.0% 99.1%  
217 0% 98%  
218 0.2% 98%  
219 0.9% 98%  
220 0.7% 97% Last Result
221 3% 96%  
222 2% 93%  
223 0.4% 91%  
224 0.2% 91%  
225 0.4% 91%  
226 1.3% 90%  
227 4% 89%  
228 4% 86%  
229 1.0% 82%  
230 0.3% 81%  
231 1.0% 81%  
232 2% 80%  
233 2% 78%  
234 4% 76%  
235 0.9% 72%  
236 0.7% 71%  
237 2% 71%  
238 0.7% 69%  
239 2% 68%  
240 3% 67%  
241 3% 64%  
242 0.4% 61%  
243 0.7% 60%  
244 8% 60%  
245 2% 52%  
246 2% 50% Median
247 1.4% 48%  
248 0.8% 46%  
249 2% 45%  
250 1.1% 43%  
251 3% 42%  
252 4% 39%  
253 4% 35%  
254 1.4% 30%  
255 0.4% 29%  
256 0.3% 29%  
257 1.3% 28%  
258 5% 27%  
259 2% 22%  
260 10% 20%  
261 0.5% 9%  
262 0.2% 9%  
263 0.2% 9%  
264 1.0% 8%  
265 4% 7%  
266 0.9% 3%  
267 0.5% 2%  
268 0% 2%  
269 0% 2%  
270 0.5% 2%  
271 0.5% 1.2%  
272 0.6% 0.7%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0.1% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0.1% 100%  
159 0% 99.8%  
160 0.2% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.7%  
162 0.1% 99.4%  
163 0.3% 99.3%  
164 0.1% 99.1%  
165 0.1% 98.9%  
166 1.0% 98.8%  
167 0.2% 98%  
168 0.7% 98%  
169 1.3% 97%  
170 0.9% 96%  
171 0.4% 95%  
172 3% 94%  
173 1.4% 92%  
174 2% 90%  
175 0.9% 89%  
176 1.3% 88%  
177 6% 86%  
178 3% 80%  
179 1.3% 78%  
180 0.8% 76%  
181 2% 76%  
182 2% 73%  
183 1.2% 71%  
184 1.3% 70%  
185 2% 69%  
186 2% 67%  
187 5% 66%  
188 0.9% 61%  
189 2% 60%  
190 9% 58%  
191 2% 49%  
192 2% 48% Median
193 2% 45%  
194 1.0% 44%  
195 4% 43%  
196 3% 39%  
197 2% 36%  
198 1.4% 34%  
199 3% 33%  
200 2% 30%  
201 11% 28%  
202 2% 17%  
203 4% 15%  
204 2% 11%  
205 1.1% 9%  
206 2% 8%  
207 2% 6%  
208 2% 4%  
209 0% 2%  
210 0.4% 2%  
211 0.1% 2%  
212 0.8% 2%  
213 0.1% 0.9%  
214 0% 0.8%  
215 0.2% 0.7%  
216 0.1% 0.5%  
217 0.2% 0.4%  
218 0% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0.1% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.4% 99.5%  
107 0.1% 99.1%  
108 1.4% 99.0%  
109 0.3% 98%  
110 0.6% 97%  
111 0.8% 97%  
112 0.2% 96%  
113 2% 96%  
114 0.7% 93%  
115 0.5% 93%  
116 1.3% 92%  
117 0.3% 91%  
118 4% 90%  
119 1.2% 87% Median
120 1.4% 86%  
121 6% 84%  
122 1.5% 78%  
123 2% 77%  
124 0.9% 75%  
125 0.3% 74%  
126 3% 74%  
127 11% 71%  
128 0.5% 60%  
129 7% 60%  
130 0.1% 52%  
131 4% 52%  
132 0.1% 48%  
133 0.3% 48%  
134 0.4% 47%  
135 0.6% 47%  
136 0.3% 46%  
137 0.3% 46%  
138 0.2% 46%  
139 0.7% 45%  
140 1.2% 45%  
141 0.5% 44%  
142 0.5% 43%  
143 0.1% 43%  
144 0.7% 42%  
145 1.4% 42%  
146 0.3% 40%  
147 0.8% 40%  
148 0.1% 39%  
149 3% 39%  
150 2% 36%  
151 2% 34%  
152 5% 33%  
153 4% 27%  
154 2% 24%  
155 1.3% 22%  
156 2% 21%  
157 7% 19%  
158 2% 12%  
159 0.7% 11%  
160 0.9% 10%  
161 0.6% 9%  
162 0.7% 9%  
163 0.9% 8%  
164 0.8% 7%  
165 0.9% 6%  
166 0.9% 5%  
167 0.7% 5%  
168 0.4% 4%  
169 0.3% 4%  
170 2% 3%  
171 0.4% 1.1%  
172 0.1% 0.7%  
173 0.3% 0.6%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations