Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 29 May–2 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.5% 29.2–31.8% 28.8–32.2% 28.5–32.5% 27.9–33.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.1–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.8–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 230 220–244 217–253 214–254 210–258
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 136 129–144 125–149 123–151 120–156
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 105 99–114 96–117 96–119 92–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 70–82 68–85 66–87 63–90
Die Linke 69 61 56–67 54–68 52–71 51–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 61 55–66 54–68 52–71 49–74
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 42 0–47 0–49 0–50 0–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0.2% 99.7%  
210 0.2% 99.6%  
211 0.1% 99.4%  
212 0.7% 99.3%  
213 0.2% 98.6%  
214 1.3% 98%  
215 0.4% 97%  
216 0.7% 97%  
217 2% 96%  
218 3% 94%  
219 0.9% 92%  
220 1.0% 91%  
221 2% 90%  
222 3% 88%  
223 1.1% 85%  
224 3% 84%  
225 5% 81%  
226 3% 77%  
227 3% 73%  
228 6% 71%  
229 12% 65%  
230 4% 54% Median
231 8% 50%  
232 7% 42%  
233 1.4% 35%  
234 8% 33%  
235 4% 26%  
236 2% 22%  
237 2% 20%  
238 2% 18%  
239 1.3% 16%  
240 1.2% 15%  
241 0.6% 14%  
242 2% 13%  
243 0.5% 11%  
244 0.7% 10%  
245 0.5% 10%  
246 0.9% 9%  
247 0.2% 8%  
248 0.2% 8%  
249 0.2% 8%  
250 0.4% 8%  
251 0.4% 7%  
252 0.1% 7%  
253 4% 7%  
254 2% 3%  
255 0.3% 1.5%  
256 0.1% 1.2%  
257 0.4% 1.1%  
258 0.2% 0.7%  
259 0.3% 0.5%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.5% 99.6%  
121 0.6% 99.0%  
122 0.8% 98%  
123 1.0% 98%  
124 0.8% 97%  
125 1.0% 96%  
126 0.4% 95%  
127 1.0% 94%  
128 2% 93%  
129 3% 92%  
130 2% 89%  
131 4% 87%  
132 10% 83%  
133 9% 73%  
134 6% 63%  
135 4% 57%  
136 8% 53% Median
137 11% 45%  
138 6% 34%  
139 4% 28%  
140 4% 23%  
141 1.1% 20%  
142 5% 19%  
143 2% 13%  
144 2% 12%  
145 2% 9%  
146 0.8% 8%  
147 0.9% 7%  
148 0.6% 6%  
149 2% 5%  
150 0.3% 3%  
151 0.5% 3%  
152 0.4% 2%  
153 0.5% 2%  
154 0.6% 1.5%  
155 0.3% 0.9%  
156 0.1% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.5%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.7%  
92 0.4% 99.7%  
93 0.2% 99.3%  
94 0.8% 99.1%  
95 0.6% 98%  
96 3% 98%  
97 0.8% 95%  
98 3% 94%  
99 9% 91%  
100 2% 82%  
101 5% 81%  
102 4% 76%  
103 11% 72%  
104 7% 61%  
105 9% 54% Median
106 5% 45%  
107 4% 40%  
108 4% 36%  
109 1.4% 32%  
110 11% 31%  
111 2% 20%  
112 2% 19%  
113 5% 17%  
114 4% 11%  
115 1.2% 7%  
116 0.8% 6%  
117 0.9% 5%  
118 1.0% 4%  
119 1.1% 3%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.3% 2%  
122 0.3% 1.3%  
123 0.4% 1.0%  
124 0.3% 0.6%  
125 0% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.5% 99.4%  
65 0.9% 98.8%  
66 0.6% 98%  
67 1.5% 97%  
68 1.5% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 2% 91%  
71 14% 90%  
72 2% 76%  
73 5% 73%  
74 6% 69%  
75 6% 63%  
76 6% 57%  
77 13% 51% Median
78 5% 38%  
79 7% 33%  
80 10% 26%  
81 2% 16%  
82 6% 14%  
83 2% 9%  
84 2% 7%  
85 1.4% 5%  
86 1.2% 4%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.2% 1.0%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.9% 99.5%  
52 2% 98.6%  
53 1.0% 97%  
54 0.9% 96%  
55 2% 95%  
56 13% 93%  
57 5% 80%  
58 3% 75%  
59 5% 72%  
60 8% 66%  
61 11% 59% Median
62 13% 48%  
63 14% 35%  
64 3% 22%  
65 3% 19%  
66 5% 16%  
67 4% 11%  
68 3% 7%  
69 0.9% 4% Last Result
70 0.7% 3%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.5%  
51 0.5% 99.0%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 4% 95%  
55 2% 91%  
56 2% 88%  
57 9% 86%  
58 6% 77%  
59 5% 71%  
60 5% 65%  
61 11% 60% Median
62 9% 49%  
63 14% 40%  
64 3% 26%  
65 3% 23%  
66 11% 20%  
67 1.1% 9%  
68 4% 8%  
69 1.2% 4%  
70 0.6% 3%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.9%  
74 0.1% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 0% 87%  
9 0% 87%  
10 0% 87%  
11 0% 87%  
12 0% 87%  
13 0% 87%  
14 0% 87%  
15 0% 87%  
16 0% 87%  
17 0% 87%  
18 0% 87%  
19 0% 87%  
20 0% 87%  
21 0% 87%  
22 0% 87%  
23 0% 87%  
24 0% 87%  
25 0% 87%  
26 0% 87%  
27 0% 87%  
28 0% 87%  
29 0% 87%  
30 0% 87%  
31 0% 87%  
32 0% 87%  
33 0% 87%  
34 0% 87%  
35 0% 87%  
36 0% 87%  
37 0% 87%  
38 5% 87%  
39 9% 82%  
40 11% 73%  
41 9% 62%  
42 5% 53% Median
43 9% 49%  
44 16% 39%  
45 8% 24%  
46 3% 15%  
47 4% 12%  
48 3% 8%  
49 2% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 531 100% 522–561 519–569 518–571 513–575
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 468 100% 454–475 451–478 445–480 437–487
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 427 100% 415–449 412–458 409–461 405–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 438 100% 425–444 419–449 414–453 404–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 395 100% 387–417 384–426 380–429 376–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 408 100% 392–417 389–418 381–421 374–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 368 91% 356–387 352–394 350–396 344–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 334 0.1% 316–339 309–342 300–346 293–352
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 301 0% 292–317 291–320 288–328 280–335
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 282 0% 261–293 254–295 247–298 242–303
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 241 0% 231–254 230–257 227–263 223–270
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 160–177 158–181 155–184 149–190
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 147 0% 114–156 110–158 105–161 104–164

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0.1% 99.9%  
510 0.1% 99.9%  
511 0.1% 99.8%  
512 0.1% 99.7%  
513 0.4% 99.7%  
514 0.3% 99.2%  
515 0.4% 98.9%  
516 0.1% 98.6%  
517 0.9% 98%  
518 1.1% 98%  
519 3% 97%  
520 0.9% 94%  
521 1.0% 93%  
522 4% 92%  
523 3% 89%  
524 6% 86%  
525 0.5% 80%  
526 3% 79%  
527 10% 76%  
528 7% 66%  
529 1.0% 59%  
530 2% 58%  
531 11% 56%  
532 3% 45% Median
533 7% 42%  
534 0.9% 34%  
535 3% 34%  
536 2% 31%  
537 6% 28%  
538 0.8% 22%  
539 1.1% 21%  
540 2% 20%  
541 2% 18%  
542 0.4% 16%  
543 0.1% 15%  
544 0.6% 15%  
545 0.7% 14%  
546 0.5% 14%  
547 0% 13%  
548 0.1% 13%  
549 0.2% 13%  
550 0.2% 13%  
551 0.1% 13%  
552 0.2% 13%  
553 0.3% 12%  
554 0.1% 12%  
555 0.2% 12%  
556 0.6% 12%  
557 0.1% 11%  
558 0.3% 11%  
559 0.2% 11%  
560 0.5% 11%  
561 0.8% 10%  
562 0.1% 9%  
563 0.4% 9%  
564 0.4% 9%  
565 1.1% 9%  
566 0.3% 7%  
567 2% 7%  
568 0.2% 5%  
569 0.6% 5%  
570 0.1% 4%  
571 3% 4%  
572 0.2% 1.1%  
573 0.2% 0.9%  
574 0.2% 0.7%  
575 0.2% 0.5%  
576 0.1% 0.3%  
577 0% 0.2%  
578 0.1% 0.2%  
579 0% 0.1%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.2% 99.9%  
434 0% 99.7%  
435 0% 99.7%  
436 0.1% 99.6%  
437 0.1% 99.5%  
438 0.3% 99.5%  
439 0.4% 99.1%  
440 0.1% 98.8%  
441 0.1% 98.7%  
442 0.4% 98.6%  
443 0.1% 98%  
444 0.2% 98%  
445 0.5% 98%  
446 0.2% 97%  
447 0.4% 97%  
448 0.2% 97%  
449 0.5% 96%  
450 0.8% 96%  
451 1.3% 95%  
452 0.6% 94%  
453 2% 93%  
454 1.4% 91%  
455 1.3% 89%  
456 1.3% 88%  
457 1.2% 87%  
458 5% 86%  
459 2% 81%  
460 1.4% 79%  
461 3% 78%  
462 3% 75%  
463 3% 72%  
464 3% 69%  
465 3% 66%  
466 10% 63%  
467 2% 53%  
468 5% 51%  
469 10% 46% Median
470 3% 36%  
471 5% 33%  
472 11% 28%  
473 2% 17%  
474 4% 15%  
475 3% 11%  
476 2% 8%  
477 1.2% 7%  
478 2% 6%  
479 0.7% 3%  
480 0.3% 3%  
481 0.5% 2%  
482 0.7% 2%  
483 0.2% 1.1%  
484 0.2% 0.9%  
485 0.1% 0.7%  
486 0.1% 0.6%  
487 0.1% 0.5%  
488 0.2% 0.4%  
489 0% 0.2%  
490 0% 0.2%  
491 0.1% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.3% 99.6%  
406 0.2% 99.3%  
407 0.2% 99.1%  
408 0.8% 98.9%  
409 0.9% 98%  
410 0.6% 97%  
411 0.4% 97%  
412 2% 96%  
413 2% 94%  
414 1.0% 92%  
415 2% 91%  
416 0.7% 89%  
417 2% 89%  
418 2% 87%  
419 2% 85%  
420 4% 83%  
421 4% 79%  
422 3% 75%  
423 6% 72%  
424 1.4% 66%  
425 8% 64%  
426 1.4% 56%  
427 8% 54% Median
428 11% 47%  
429 2% 36%  
430 6% 34%  
431 4% 28%  
432 3% 25%  
433 1.1% 21%  
434 1.3% 20%  
435 0.6% 19%  
436 2% 18%  
437 1.1% 16%  
438 0.7% 15%  
439 0.9% 14%  
440 0.6% 14%  
441 0.6% 13%  
442 0.4% 12%  
443 0.3% 12%  
444 0.4% 12%  
445 0.6% 11%  
446 0.2% 11%  
447 0.3% 10%  
448 0.1% 10%  
449 0.2% 10%  
450 0.4% 10%  
451 0.4% 10%  
452 0.5% 9%  
453 0.2% 9%  
454 0.2% 8%  
455 0.5% 8%  
456 0.6% 8%  
457 0.1% 7%  
458 3% 7%  
459 0.6% 4%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 0.2% 3%  
462 2% 2%  
463 0.1% 0.7%  
464 0.2% 0.6%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0.1% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.2% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0.1% 99.5%  
406 0% 99.4%  
407 0.1% 99.4%  
408 0.1% 99.3%  
409 0% 99.2%  
410 0.1% 99.1%  
411 0.8% 99.0%  
412 0.1% 98%  
413 0.3% 98%  
414 0.6% 98%  
415 0.3% 97%  
416 0.2% 97%  
417 0.3% 97%  
418 0.6% 96%  
419 1.0% 96%  
420 0.3% 95%  
421 0.6% 95%  
422 0.6% 94%  
423 0.6% 93%  
424 3% 93%  
425 4% 90%  
426 1.1% 87%  
427 0.5% 85%  
428 4% 85%  
429 5% 81%  
430 0.7% 76%  
431 2% 75%  
432 1.4% 73%  
433 4% 72%  
434 1.5% 68%  
435 3% 66%  
436 7% 63%  
437 6% 56%  
438 16% 50% Median
439 2% 34%  
440 6% 32%  
441 3% 26%  
442 4% 23%  
443 6% 19%  
444 2% 12%  
445 1.4% 10%  
446 2% 8%  
447 0.8% 7%  
448 0.6% 6%  
449 0.7% 5%  
450 0.6% 5%  
451 0.5% 4%  
452 0.3% 4%  
453 0.9% 3%  
454 0.2% 2%  
455 0.7% 2%  
456 0.7% 1.4%  
457 0.2% 0.7%  
458 0.1% 0.5%  
459 0.1% 0.4%  
460 0.2% 0.3%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0.2% 99.5%  
377 0.8% 99.3%  
378 0.2% 98%  
379 0.4% 98%  
380 0.4% 98%  
381 0.4% 97%  
382 0.5% 97%  
383 0.6% 97%  
384 3% 96%  
385 2% 93%  
386 1.0% 91%  
387 4% 90%  
388 4% 87%  
389 1.3% 82%  
390 4% 81%  
391 0.7% 77%  
392 9% 76%  
393 2% 67%  
394 8% 64%  
395 8% 56%  
396 2% 48% Median
397 5% 46%  
398 3% 41%  
399 2% 38% Last Result
400 6% 36%  
401 0.9% 30%  
402 3% 29%  
403 3% 26%  
404 5% 23%  
405 0.5% 18%  
406 2% 18%  
407 0.4% 16%  
408 0.7% 16%  
409 0.3% 15%  
410 0.8% 15%  
411 1.3% 14%  
412 0.2% 13%  
413 0.4% 12%  
414 1.1% 12%  
415 0.4% 11%  
416 0.5% 11%  
417 0.2% 10%  
418 0.7% 10%  
419 0.9% 9%  
420 0% 8%  
421 0.5% 8%  
422 0.2% 8%  
423 0.1% 8%  
424 0.5% 8%  
425 2% 7%  
426 0.4% 5%  
427 0.1% 5%  
428 0.6% 5%  
429 3% 4%  
430 0.1% 1.0%  
431 0.2% 0.8%  
432 0.1% 0.7%  
433 0.1% 0.6%  
434 0.1% 0.5%  
435 0.1% 0.4%  
436 0.1% 0.3%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0.1% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0.1% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0% 99.8%  
371 0% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.6%  
374 0.5% 99.5%  
375 0.1% 99.1%  
376 0.2% 99.0%  
377 0.1% 98.8%  
378 0% 98.8%  
379 0.3% 98.7%  
380 0.7% 98%  
381 0.2% 98%  
382 0.1% 97%  
383 0.1% 97%  
384 0.2% 97%  
385 0.1% 97%  
386 0.4% 97%  
387 0.9% 96%  
388 0.4% 96%  
389 0.4% 95%  
390 0.7% 95%  
391 0.5% 94%  
392 4% 94%  
393 0.5% 90%  
394 4% 89%  
395 0.9% 85%  
396 3% 84%  
397 3% 82%  
398 0.9% 78%  
399 2% 77%  
400 1.0% 75%  
401 1.2% 74%  
402 2% 73%  
403 2% 71%  
404 4% 70%  
405 2% 66%  
406 11% 63%  
407 1.1% 52%  
408 3% 51%  
409 2% 48%  
410 7% 47% Median
411 11% 39%  
412 3% 28%  
413 5% 25%  
414 2% 20%  
415 4% 18%  
416 3% 14%  
417 6% 12%  
418 1.3% 5%  
419 0.8% 4%  
420 0.7% 3% Last Result
421 0.3% 3%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.6% 2%  
424 0.3% 2%  
425 0.4% 1.3%  
426 0.2% 0.8%  
427 0% 0.7%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0.1% 0.5%  
430 0.2% 0.4%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9% Last Result
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.3% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.4%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0.5% 99.1%  
348 0.1% 98.6%  
349 0.6% 98.5%  
350 1.1% 98%  
351 1.0% 97%  
352 2% 96%  
353 0.6% 93%  
354 1.4% 93%  
355 1.2% 91% Majority
356 4% 90%  
357 1.4% 87%  
358 2% 85%  
359 2% 83%  
360 2% 81%  
361 3% 79%  
362 8% 76%  
363 3% 68%  
364 3% 65%  
365 2% 61%  
366 5% 59%  
367 1.0% 54%  
368 10% 53% Median
369 1.4% 43%  
370 4% 41%  
371 6% 37%  
372 2% 31%  
373 6% 29%  
374 1.3% 23%  
375 3% 22%  
376 0.7% 18%  
377 0.5% 17%  
378 3% 17%  
379 0.6% 14%  
380 1.5% 14%  
381 0.8% 12%  
382 0.3% 12%  
383 0.2% 11%  
384 0.6% 11%  
385 0.1% 11%  
386 0.3% 10%  
387 1.0% 10%  
388 0.1% 9%  
389 0.3% 9%  
390 0.4% 9%  
391 0% 8%  
392 0.5% 8%  
393 0.1% 8%  
394 4% 8%  
395 0.3% 4%  
396 2% 4%  
397 0.1% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.1% 2%  
400 0.4% 1.4%  
401 0.1% 1.0%  
402 0.6% 0.8%  
403 0% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0.1% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.6%  
292 0% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.3% 99.5%  
295 0.4% 99.2%  
296 0.1% 98.8%  
297 0.3% 98.8%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.7% 98%  
301 0.1% 97%  
302 0.3% 97%  
303 0.3% 97%  
304 0.2% 97%  
305 0.1% 97%  
306 0.9% 96%  
307 0.3% 96%  
308 0.3% 95%  
309 0.1% 95%  
310 0.1% 95%  
311 0.1% 95%  
312 0.3% 95%  
313 0.3% 94%  
314 0.7% 94%  
315 0.9% 93%  
316 4% 93%  
317 1.1% 89%  
318 4% 88%  
319 2% 83%  
320 2% 82%  
321 2% 79%  
322 0.7% 77%  
323 1.4% 76%  
324 1.0% 75%  
325 1.1% 74%  
326 1.0% 73% Last Result
327 1.4% 72%  
328 2% 71%  
329 2% 68%  
330 1.0% 66%  
331 1.2% 65%  
332 1.1% 64%  
333 11% 63% Median
334 11% 52%  
335 14% 42%  
336 6% 27%  
337 9% 21%  
338 2% 12%  
339 3% 10%  
340 2% 8%  
341 0.9% 6%  
342 0.6% 5%  
343 0.8% 5%  
344 0.6% 4%  
345 0.5% 3%  
346 0.8% 3%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.1% 2%  
350 0.3% 1.4%  
351 0.6% 1.2%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.2% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.2% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.6%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0% 99.4%  
283 0.2% 99.3%  
284 0.4% 99.2%  
285 0.3% 98.7%  
286 0.6% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.7% 97% Last Result
290 0.8% 97%  
291 1.3% 96%  
292 6% 95%  
293 3% 88%  
294 4% 86%  
295 2% 82%  
296 5% 80%  
297 3% 75%  
298 11% 72%  
299 7% 61%  
300 2% 53%  
301 3% 52%  
302 1.1% 49% Median
303 11% 48%  
304 2% 37%  
305 4% 34%  
306 2% 30%  
307 2% 29%  
308 1.2% 27%  
309 1.0% 26%  
310 2% 25%  
311 0.9% 23%  
312 3% 22%  
313 3% 18%  
314 0.9% 16%  
315 4% 15%  
316 0.5% 11%  
317 4% 10%  
318 0.5% 6%  
319 0.7% 6%  
320 0.4% 5%  
321 0.4% 5%  
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.4% 4%  
324 0.1% 3%  
325 0.2% 3%  
326 0.1% 3%  
327 0.1% 3%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.7% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0% 1.3%  
332 0.1% 1.2%  
333 0.2% 1.2%  
334 0.1% 1.0%  
335 0.5% 0.9%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.6%  
242 0.5% 99.6%  
243 0.3% 99.1%  
244 0.1% 98.8%  
245 0.1% 98.7%  
246 0.1% 98.6%  
247 2% 98.6%  
248 0.3% 97%  
249 0.2% 97%  
250 0.5% 97%  
251 0.1% 96%  
252 0.3% 96%  
253 0.5% 96%  
254 0.3% 95%  
255 3% 95%  
256 0.2% 92%  
257 0.2% 91%  
258 0.4% 91%  
259 0.6% 91%  
260 0.1% 90%  
261 0.6% 90%  
262 0.4% 89%  
263 0.3% 89%  
264 0.7% 89%  
265 0.3% 88%  
266 0.6% 88%  
267 0.6% 87%  
268 0.6% 87%  
269 1.1% 86%  
270 2% 85%  
271 0.9% 83%  
272 1.2% 82%  
273 1.2% 80%  
274 1.1% 79%  
275 8% 78%  
276 3% 70%  
277 0.9% 67%  
278 4% 66%  
279 8% 62%  
280 3% 55%  
281 2% 52%  
282 5% 50%  
283 3% 45% Median
284 9% 42%  
285 1.2% 34%  
286 4% 32%  
287 4% 29%  
288 5% 24%  
289 3% 20%  
290 3% 17%  
291 2% 14%  
292 2% 12%  
293 1.3% 10%  
294 3% 9%  
295 1.0% 6%  
296 2% 5%  
297 0.6% 3%  
298 0.8% 3%  
299 0.5% 2%  
300 0.4% 2% Last Result
301 0.3% 1.2%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0.4% 0.7%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0.1% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.2% 99.6%  
224 0.5% 99.3%  
225 0.6% 98.8%  
226 0.8% 98%  
227 0.5% 98%  
228 0.8% 97%  
229 1.0% 96%  
230 2% 95%  
231 5% 93%  
232 3% 88%  
233 2% 85%  
234 3% 83%  
235 3% 80%  
236 8% 76%  
237 1.0% 68%  
238 6% 67%  
239 1.3% 61%  
240 9% 60%  
241 3% 50% Median
242 4% 48%  
243 6% 44%  
244 2% 38%  
245 4% 36%  
246 5% 32%  
247 3% 27%  
248 3% 24%  
249 2% 21%  
250 3% 19%  
251 2% 17%  
252 1.0% 15%  
253 1.3% 14%  
254 3% 13%  
255 4% 10%  
256 0.5% 6%  
257 0.7% 6%  
258 0.5% 5%  
259 0.8% 4%  
260 0.2% 4%  
261 0.7% 3%  
262 0.2% 3%  
263 0.2% 3%  
264 0.6% 2%  
265 0.2% 2%  
266 0.5% 2%  
267 0.1% 1.1%  
268 0.1% 0.9%  
269 0.3% 0.9%  
270 0% 0.5%  
271 0.2% 0.5%  
272 0% 0.3%  
273 0.1% 0.3%  
274 0.1% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0.1% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.7%  
149 0.1% 99.6%  
150 0.3% 99.4%  
151 0.2% 99.1%  
152 0.3% 98.9%  
153 0.5% 98.7%  
154 0.1% 98%  
155 1.4% 98%  
156 0.8% 97%  
157 0.8% 96%  
158 1.1% 95%  
159 1.0% 94%  
160 8% 93%  
161 5% 84%  
162 5% 79%  
163 5% 74%  
164 10% 69%  
165 4% 59%  
166 20% 55% Median
167 4% 35%  
168 2% 30%  
169 0.9% 28%  
170 2% 27%  
171 3% 25%  
172 1.1% 23%  
173 4% 22%  
174 1.5% 18%  
175 0.8% 16%  
176 2% 15%  
177 5% 14%  
178 1.1% 9%  
179 1.2% 8%  
180 1.3% 7%  
181 0.3% 5%  
182 1.3% 5%  
183 0.6% 4%  
184 0.9% 3%  
185 0.3% 2%  
186 0.3% 2%  
187 0.5% 2%  
188 0.3% 1.1%  
189 0% 0.8%  
190 0.5% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0.1% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.6%  
103 0% 99.6%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 3% 99.2%  
106 0.4% 97%  
107 0% 96%  
108 0.4% 96%  
109 0.4% 96%  
110 0.8% 95%  
111 0.2% 95%  
112 0.1% 94%  
113 4% 94%  
114 0.5% 90%  
115 0.3% 90%  
116 0.2% 90%  
117 0.1% 89%  
118 0.1% 89%  
119 0.8% 89%  
120 0.4% 88%  
121 0.1% 88%  
122 0.1% 88%  
123 0.3% 88%  
124 0.2% 88%  
125 0% 87%  
126 0% 87%  
127 0.1% 87%  
128 0% 87%  
129 0% 87%  
130 0% 87%  
131 0% 87%  
132 0.1% 87%  
133 0.9% 87%  
134 0.2% 86%  
135 0.1% 86%  
136 2% 86%  
137 2% 84%  
138 0.5% 83%  
139 1.0% 82%  
140 0.8% 81%  
141 6% 80%  
142 4% 74%  
143 7% 71%  
144 3% 63%  
145 4% 61%  
146 1.5% 56%  
147 13% 55% Median
148 2% 41%  
149 6% 39%  
150 5% 33%  
151 6% 28%  
152 2% 22%  
153 2% 19%  
154 5% 17%  
155 1.3% 12%  
156 2% 11%  
157 3% 9%  
158 1.1% 6%  
159 1.2% 5%  
160 0.6% 4%  
161 2% 3%  
162 0.4% 1.3%  
163 0.3% 0.9%  
164 0.1% 0.6%  
165 0.2% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations