Opinion Poll by Kantar, 28 May–3 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.3–32.5% 28.9–32.9% 28.5–33.3% 27.8–34.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.3–8.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.9–8.6% 5.5–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 238 226–249 223–253 220–255 214–261
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 122 114–133 110–134 109–139 106–142
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 106–124 105–128 103–131 98–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 61 54–69 54–71 51–73 49–76
Die Linke 69 64 56–69 54–70 52–72 48–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 55 51–61 47–65 45–67 42–71
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 56 49–61 46–63 44–64 42–68

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0.1% 99.6%  
215 0.1% 99.5%  
216 0.2% 99.4%  
217 0.2% 99.1%  
218 0.9% 99.0%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.7% 98%  
221 1.3% 97%  
222 0.3% 96%  
223 2% 95%  
224 3% 93%  
225 0.3% 91%  
226 1.4% 90%  
227 1.3% 89%  
228 4% 88%  
229 7% 84%  
230 2% 77%  
231 1.1% 75%  
232 3% 74%  
233 8% 70%  
234 2% 62%  
235 7% 60%  
236 1.1% 54%  
237 1.0% 53%  
238 10% 52% Median
239 5% 42%  
240 4% 37%  
241 1.4% 33%  
242 1.1% 31%  
243 5% 30%  
244 4% 26%  
245 1.3% 21%  
246 2% 20%  
247 1.3% 18%  
248 4% 17%  
249 4% 13%  
250 0.9% 9%  
251 0.3% 9%  
252 2% 8%  
253 2% 6%  
254 1.0% 4%  
255 1.1% 3%  
256 0.2% 2%  
257 0.1% 2%  
258 0.3% 2%  
259 0.9% 2%  
260 0.2% 0.8%  
261 0.1% 0.6%  
262 0.1% 0.5%  
263 0.1% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.3%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0.1% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.6%  
107 0.2% 99.3%  
108 1.0% 99.1%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 3% 97%  
111 2% 94%  
112 2% 93%  
113 0.8% 91%  
114 1.1% 90%  
115 3% 89%  
116 7% 86%  
117 11% 78%  
118 6% 67%  
119 4% 61%  
120 5% 57%  
121 2% 53%  
122 7% 51% Median
123 3% 44%  
124 8% 40%  
125 3% 32%  
126 2% 28%  
127 2% 26%  
128 2% 24%  
129 1.4% 22%  
130 2% 21%  
131 4% 19%  
132 2% 15%  
133 5% 13%  
134 3% 8%  
135 0.9% 5%  
136 0.5% 4%  
137 0.3% 3%  
138 0.4% 3%  
139 0.7% 3%  
140 0.8% 2%  
141 0.5% 1.3%  
142 0.3% 0.8%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.5% 99.6%  
99 0.5% 99.1%  
100 0.2% 98.6%  
101 0.3% 98%  
102 0.2% 98%  
103 2% 98%  
104 1.1% 96%  
105 3% 95%  
106 3% 92%  
107 2% 89%  
108 0.9% 88%  
109 3% 87%  
110 6% 84%  
111 5% 78%  
112 9% 74%  
113 15% 65% Median
114 2% 49%  
115 4% 47%  
116 6% 43%  
117 10% 36%  
118 3% 26%  
119 4% 23%  
120 2% 19%  
121 1.2% 16%  
122 1.4% 15%  
123 2% 13%  
124 1.3% 11%  
125 2% 10%  
126 2% 8%  
127 1.4% 7%  
128 0.9% 5%  
129 0.7% 4%  
130 0.9% 4%  
131 1.1% 3%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.0%  
134 0.2% 0.7%  
135 0.3% 0.6%  
136 0% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 1.3% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 98%  
51 2% 98%  
52 0.3% 96%  
53 0.4% 96%  
54 7% 96%  
55 3% 88%  
56 4% 85%  
57 0.5% 82%  
58 2% 81%  
59 14% 79%  
60 9% 65%  
61 6% 56% Median
62 0.7% 50%  
63 3% 49%  
64 14% 46%  
65 7% 32%  
66 9% 25%  
67 0.2% 15%  
68 2% 15%  
69 5% 13%  
70 3% 8%  
71 2% 5%  
72 0.1% 3%  
73 0.5% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.7% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.0%  
50 0.9% 98.9%  
51 0.3% 98%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 0.9% 96%  
54 2% 95%  
55 3% 93%  
56 3% 90%  
57 6% 87%  
58 3% 81%  
59 8% 78%  
60 2% 70%  
61 11% 69%  
62 2% 58%  
63 5% 56%  
64 4% 50% Median
65 12% 46%  
66 5% 34%  
67 11% 29%  
68 6% 18%  
69 5% 11% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 0.9% 4%  
72 1.3% 4%  
73 0.3% 2%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.3%  
76 0.3% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.5%  
44 1.2% 98.8%  
45 1.1% 98%  
46 1.3% 97% Last Result
47 1.3% 95%  
48 1.5% 94%  
49 0.6% 92%  
50 0.4% 92%  
51 5% 92%  
52 5% 87%  
53 4% 82%  
54 21% 78%  
55 14% 57% Median
56 14% 43%  
57 7% 29%  
58 5% 22%  
59 4% 17%  
60 3% 13%  
61 1.4% 10%  
62 2% 9%  
63 0.5% 7%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.5% 5%  
66 0.7% 4%  
67 1.1% 3%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 0.4% 1.2%  
70 0.3% 0.8%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 98.8%  
44 0.8% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 0.5% 95%  
47 2% 95%  
48 2% 92%  
49 3% 90%  
50 4% 87%  
51 9% 83%  
52 13% 75%  
53 2% 62%  
54 4% 59%  
55 2% 55%  
56 15% 53% Median
57 14% 38%  
58 7% 24%  
59 3% 17%  
60 1.4% 14%  
61 3% 13%  
62 2% 10%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.3% 2%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.2% 1.0%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 529 100% 520–541 517–544 513–547 508–553
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 470 100% 458–482 456–485 453–487 446–492
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 461 100% 452–474 448–479 446–481 438–486
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 415 100% 404–427 400–430 397–434 391–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 408 100% 395–420 392–424 390–428 383–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 408 100% 395–422 391–425 389–426 386–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 355 50% 342–367 339–371 337–375 330–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 347 24% 335–361 331–365 328–366 322–371
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 301 0% 287–314 284–318 283–320 275–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 291 0% 281–304 277–308 273–312 269–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 235 0% 226–249 221–254 220–257 217–263
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 180 0% 167–188 164–191 161–195 157–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 169 0% 164–177 154–185 152–189 149–191

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 99.9%  
505 0% 99.9%  
506 0.1% 99.9%  
507 0% 99.8%  
508 0.3% 99.8%  
509 0.1% 99.5%  
510 0.3% 99.4%  
511 0.3% 99.1%  
512 0.2% 98.8%  
513 1.2% 98.6%  
514 0.7% 97%  
515 0.2% 97%  
516 0.9% 96%  
517 3% 95%  
518 0.2% 92%  
519 0.8% 92%  
520 2% 91%  
521 1.1% 89%  
522 8% 88%  
523 2% 80%  
524 3% 78%  
525 6% 75%  
526 9% 69%  
527 2% 61%  
528 2% 59% Median
529 7% 56%  
530 7% 49%  
531 4% 42%  
532 2% 38%  
533 6% 35%  
534 5% 29%  
535 1.2% 24%  
536 4% 23%  
537 5% 19%  
538 0.9% 15%  
539 0.6% 14%  
540 2% 13%  
541 3% 11%  
542 1.3% 8%  
543 0.4% 7%  
544 1.5% 6%  
545 0.6% 5%  
546 2% 4%  
547 0.6% 3%  
548 0.2% 2%  
549 0.8% 2%  
550 0.3% 1.1%  
551 0.1% 0.8%  
552 0.2% 0.7%  
553 0.1% 0.5%  
554 0.1% 0.4%  
555 0.1% 0.3%  
556 0.1% 0.3%  
557 0% 0.2%  
558 0% 0.2%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0.1%  
565 0% 0.1%  
566 0% 0.1%  
567 0% 0.1%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.8%  
444 0% 99.7%  
445 0.1% 99.6%  
446 0.2% 99.6%  
447 0.2% 99.3%  
448 0.1% 99.1%  
449 0.2% 99.0%  
450 0.8% 98.9%  
451 0.1% 98%  
452 0.3% 98%  
453 0.5% 98%  
454 1.3% 97%  
455 0.3% 96%  
456 1.0% 96%  
457 3% 94%  
458 4% 91%  
459 0.7% 88%  
460 0.5% 87%  
461 12% 86%  
462 2% 74%  
463 1.3% 72%  
464 0.7% 71%  
465 11% 70%  
466 1.3% 60%  
467 4% 58%  
468 1.0% 54%  
469 3% 53%  
470 7% 50%  
471 2% 43% Median
472 1.1% 41%  
473 4% 40%  
474 2% 36%  
475 3% 34%  
476 7% 31%  
477 4% 24%  
478 2% 20%  
479 2% 18%  
480 3% 16%  
481 3% 13%  
482 3% 11%  
483 1.5% 8%  
484 0.5% 7%  
485 1.4% 6%  
486 1.4% 5%  
487 0.9% 3%  
488 0.1% 2%  
489 0.6% 2%  
490 0.8% 2%  
491 0.1% 0.7%  
492 0.1% 0.6%  
493 0.2% 0.5%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.2%  
497 0.1% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.8%  
437 0.1% 99.7%  
438 0.2% 99.6%  
439 0% 99.5%  
440 0.1% 99.4%  
441 0.2% 99.3%  
442 0.2% 99.1%  
443 0.5% 98.9%  
444 0.1% 98%  
445 0.7% 98%  
446 1.0% 98%  
447 0.8% 97%  
448 0.8% 96%  
449 2% 95%  
450 2% 93%  
451 0.5% 91%  
452 4% 91%  
453 1.1% 87%  
454 6% 86%  
455 2% 80%  
456 8% 78%  
457 3% 70%  
458 4% 67%  
459 0.9% 64%  
460 6% 63%  
461 9% 57%  
462 2% 48% Median
463 3% 46%  
464 5% 42%  
465 4% 37%  
466 1.5% 33%  
467 6% 31%  
468 2% 25%  
469 3% 24%  
470 3% 21%  
471 0.9% 17%  
472 2% 16%  
473 2% 14%  
474 2% 12%  
475 2% 10%  
476 0.8% 8%  
477 0.6% 7%  
478 0.9% 6%  
479 1.1% 5% Last Result
480 1.3% 4%  
481 0.6% 3%  
482 0.4% 2%  
483 0.3% 2%  
484 1.0% 2%  
485 0.1% 0.8%  
486 0.4% 0.8%  
487 0.1% 0.4%  
488 0.1% 0.3%  
489 0.1% 0.2%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.2% 99.7%  
391 0.3% 99.5%  
392 0.1% 99.3%  
393 0.2% 99.1%  
394 0.1% 98.9%  
395 0.9% 98.8%  
396 0.4% 98%  
397 0.5% 98%  
398 0.8% 97%  
399 0.7% 96%  
400 1.1% 96%  
401 2% 94%  
402 0.9% 93%  
403 1.2% 92%  
404 2% 91%  
405 3% 88%  
406 1.0% 85%  
407 3% 84%  
408 2% 81%  
409 13% 80%  
410 2% 67%  
411 3% 65%  
412 1.5% 62%  
413 7% 60%  
414 3% 54%  
415 4% 50% Median
416 4% 46%  
417 3% 42%  
418 2% 39%  
419 9% 37%  
420 5% 28%  
421 0.9% 23%  
422 2% 22%  
423 3% 19%  
424 3% 17%  
425 3% 14%  
426 1.1% 11%  
427 0.9% 10%  
428 2% 9%  
429 1.2% 8%  
430 2% 6%  
431 0.8% 5%  
432 0.4% 4%  
433 0.5% 3%  
434 0.6% 3%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.3% 2%  
437 0.6% 2%  
438 0.3% 1.3%  
439 0.2% 1.0%  
440 0.1% 0.8%  
441 0.4% 0.7%  
442 0.1% 0.4%  
443 0% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0.1% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0.3% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.5%  
385 0.2% 99.3%  
386 0.1% 99.2%  
387 0.4% 99.0%  
388 0.5% 98.7%  
389 0.5% 98%  
390 0.2% 98%  
391 0.4% 97%  
392 3% 97%  
393 0.3% 94%  
394 0.5% 94%  
395 4% 94%  
396 0.5% 89%  
397 3% 89%  
398 6% 86%  
399 0.5% 80% Last Result
400 8% 79%  
401 1.1% 71%  
402 2% 70%  
403 5% 68%  
404 3% 63%  
405 2% 60%  
406 5% 59% Median
407 1.3% 53%  
408 4% 52%  
409 13% 48%  
410 1.4% 35%  
411 2% 34%  
412 3% 32%  
413 2% 29%  
414 4% 27%  
415 4% 23%  
416 1.1% 19%  
417 2% 17%  
418 1.3% 16%  
419 3% 14%  
420 2% 11%  
421 0.9% 10%  
422 2% 9%  
423 1.0% 7%  
424 0.8% 6%  
425 0.3% 5%  
426 1.0% 5%  
427 1.0% 4%  
428 0.2% 3%  
429 0.2% 2%  
430 1.0% 2%  
431 0.1% 1.2%  
432 0.2% 1.1%  
433 0.6% 0.9%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0% 99.8%  
384 0% 99.7%  
385 0.1% 99.7%  
386 0.2% 99.6%  
387 0.6% 99.5%  
388 1.0% 98.9%  
389 0.4% 98%  
390 1.0% 97%  
391 2% 96%  
392 2% 95%  
393 0.6% 93%  
394 0.9% 92%  
395 2% 91%  
396 0.3% 90%  
397 0.7% 89%  
398 0.3% 89%  
399 0.1% 88%  
400 1.0% 88%  
401 0.7% 87%  
402 5% 86%  
403 5% 81%  
404 1.3% 76%  
405 12% 75%  
406 2% 63%  
407 9% 62%  
408 3% 53%  
409 2% 50%  
410 14% 48% Median
411 5% 34%  
412 1.0% 29%  
413 0.3% 28%  
414 0.4% 28%  
415 0.2% 27%  
416 0.4% 27%  
417 2% 27%  
418 0.8% 24%  
419 2% 24%  
420 3% 22% Last Result
421 3% 19%  
422 6% 16%  
423 2% 10%  
424 3% 8%  
425 3% 5%  
426 1.4% 3%  
427 0.4% 1.3%  
428 0.2% 1.0%  
429 0.1% 0.8%  
430 0% 0.7%  
431 0% 0.7%  
432 0% 0.7%  
433 0.1% 0.6%  
434 0.1% 0.5%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0.1% 0.4%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.7%  
330 0.5% 99.6%  
331 0.4% 99.1%  
332 0% 98.7%  
333 0.2% 98.6%  
334 0.2% 98%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.4% 98%  
337 0.9% 98%  
338 0.8% 97%  
339 2% 96%  
340 1.2% 95% Last Result
341 2% 93%  
342 2% 91%  
343 1.1% 90%  
344 1.0% 88%  
345 0.6% 87%  
346 8% 87%  
347 2% 79%  
348 5% 77%  
349 7% 72%  
350 6% 64%  
351 3% 59%  
352 2% 55%  
353 1.0% 53%  
354 2% 52% Median
355 0.9% 50% Majority
356 2% 49%  
357 2% 47%  
358 12% 44%  
359 6% 33%  
360 3% 27%  
361 1.3% 23%  
362 1.3% 22%  
363 0.8% 21%  
364 4% 20%  
365 1.0% 16%  
366 3% 15%  
367 2% 11%  
368 2% 10%  
369 1.4% 8%  
370 0.3% 6%  
371 2% 6%  
372 0.7% 4%  
373 0.2% 4%  
374 0.4% 3%  
375 1.0% 3%  
376 0.1% 2%  
377 1.0% 2%  
378 0.1% 0.7%  
379 0.2% 0.7%  
380 0% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.6%  
322 0.1% 99.5%  
323 0.2% 99.4%  
324 0.2% 99.2%  
325 0.2% 99.0%  
326 0.2% 98.8% Last Result
327 0.7% 98.7%  
328 1.1% 98%  
329 0.5% 97%  
330 0.2% 96%  
331 2% 96%  
332 0.4% 94%  
333 1.0% 94%  
334 2% 93%  
335 0.9% 91%  
336 3% 90%  
337 1.1% 87%  
338 1.3% 86%  
339 6% 85%  
340 1.3% 78%  
341 6% 77%  
342 1.4% 71%  
343 7% 70%  
344 9% 63%  
345 1.2% 54%  
346 3% 53%  
347 2% 50%  
348 5% 48%  
349 4% 44% Median
350 2% 40%  
351 5% 38%  
352 2% 33%  
353 4% 32%  
354 4% 28%  
355 4% 24% Majority
356 1.2% 21%  
357 5% 19%  
358 0.8% 14%  
359 2% 14%  
360 0.5% 11%  
361 2% 11%  
362 2% 9%  
363 0.3% 7%  
364 1.3% 6%  
365 1.4% 5%  
366 1.5% 4%  
367 0.6% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.7% 1.4%  
370 0.1% 0.7%  
371 0.2% 0.6%  
372 0% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0.1% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0% 99.4%  
278 0% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.2%  
282 0.4% 99.0%  
283 1.4% 98.7%  
284 3% 97%  
285 3% 95%  
286 2% 92%  
287 6% 90%  
288 3% 84%  
289 3% 81% Last Result
290 2% 78%  
291 0.8% 76%  
292 2% 76%  
293 0.4% 73%  
294 0.2% 73%  
295 0.4% 73%  
296 0.3% 72%  
297 1.0% 72%  
298 5% 71%  
299 14% 66% Median
300 2% 52%  
301 3% 50%  
302 9% 47%  
303 2% 38%  
304 12% 37%  
305 1.3% 25%  
306 5% 24%  
307 5% 19%  
308 0.7% 14%  
309 1.0% 13%  
310 0.1% 12%  
311 0.3% 12%  
312 0.7% 11%  
313 0.3% 11%  
314 2% 10%  
315 0.9% 9%  
316 0.6% 8%  
317 2% 7%  
318 2% 5%  
319 1.0% 4%  
320 0.4% 3%  
321 1.0% 2%  
322 0.6% 1.1%  
323 0.2% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3%  
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.2% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.5% 99.5%  
270 0.4% 99.0%  
271 0.3% 98.6%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.5% 98%  
274 0.3% 97%  
275 0.9% 97%  
276 0.6% 96%  
277 1.4% 96%  
278 0.7% 94%  
279 2% 94%  
280 0.9% 92%  
281 3% 91%  
282 2% 88%  
283 5% 86%  
284 4% 82%  
285 1.4% 78%  
286 10% 77%  
287 5% 67%  
288 5% 62%  
289 3% 58%  
290 2% 55%  
291 7% 53% Median
292 3% 47%  
293 7% 44%  
294 2% 37%  
295 3% 35%  
296 2% 32%  
297 2% 30%  
298 1.2% 28%  
299 3% 26%  
300 3% 24% Last Result
301 2% 21%  
302 6% 19%  
303 0.8% 13%  
304 4% 12%  
305 0.4% 8%  
306 1.3% 8%  
307 1.2% 7%  
308 1.2% 5%  
309 0.6% 4%  
310 0.4% 4%  
311 0.7% 3%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.7% 2%  
315 0.3% 1.3%  
316 0.3% 1.0%  
317 0.1% 0.7%  
318 0.2% 0.6%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0.1% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.7%  
216 0.1% 99.7%  
217 0.5% 99.5%  
218 0.3% 99.0%  
219 0.3% 98.7%  
220 2% 98% Last Result
221 2% 97%  
222 0.6% 95%  
223 0.7% 94%  
224 2% 94%  
225 1.0% 92%  
226 2% 91%  
227 1.1% 89%  
228 1.4% 88%  
229 2% 86%  
230 7% 84%  
231 1.0% 77%  
232 7% 76%  
233 5% 69%  
234 11% 65%  
235 5% 53% Median
236 2% 48%  
237 7% 46%  
238 3% 39%  
239 1.2% 36%  
240 2% 35%  
241 2% 33%  
242 2% 31%  
243 3% 29%  
244 2% 26%  
245 3% 24%  
246 5% 21%  
247 5% 16%  
248 0.9% 11%  
249 1.4% 10%  
250 1.4% 9%  
251 0.6% 7%  
252 0.6% 7%  
253 0.6% 6%  
254 0.9% 5%  
255 0.5% 4%  
256 0.9% 4%  
257 0.8% 3%  
258 0.8% 2%  
259 0.2% 1.4%  
260 0.5% 1.3%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.7%  
263 0.1% 0.5%  
264 0% 0.4%  
265 0.1% 0.3%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0.1% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.7%  
157 0.1% 99.6%  
158 0.4% 99.5%  
159 0.2% 99.0%  
160 1.1% 98.9%  
161 0.6% 98%  
162 0.6% 97%  
163 0.5% 97%  
164 2% 96%  
165 2% 95%  
166 2% 92%  
167 4% 90%  
168 2% 86%  
169 3% 84%  
170 2% 82%  
171 2% 80%  
172 5% 77%  
173 4% 73%  
174 8% 69%  
175 4% 61%  
176 0.9% 58%  
177 2% 57% Median
178 0.7% 55%  
179 3% 54%  
180 11% 51%  
181 5% 39%  
182 12% 35%  
183 6% 23%  
184 1.0% 17%  
185 1.1% 16%  
186 1.0% 15%  
187 2% 14%  
188 3% 12%  
189 1.4% 9%  
190 2% 8%  
191 0.8% 5%  
192 0.9% 5%  
193 0.3% 4%  
194 0.9% 4%  
195 0.7% 3%  
196 0.4% 2%  
197 0.5% 1.5%  
198 0.1% 1.0%  
199 0.1% 0.8%  
200 0.3% 0.7%  
201 0.2% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.1% 99.5%  
150 0.1% 99.4%  
151 0.4% 99.3%  
152 2% 98.9%  
153 1.3% 97%  
154 2% 95%  
155 0.5% 94%  
156 0.1% 93%  
157 0.1% 93%  
158 0.3% 93%  
159 0.7% 93%  
160 0.4% 92%  
161 0.4% 92%  
162 0.6% 91%  
163 0.6% 91%  
164 0.3% 90%  
165 0.2% 90%  
166 3% 90%  
167 9% 87%  
168 14% 78%  
169 32% 64% Median
170 8% 32%  
171 2% 24%  
172 2% 22%  
173 3% 20%  
174 3% 17%  
175 3% 15%  
176 2% 12%  
177 0.2% 10%  
178 0% 10%  
179 0% 10%  
180 0% 10%  
181 0.2% 10%  
182 1.3% 10%  
183 1.3% 8%  
184 2% 7%  
185 0.8% 5%  
186 0.1% 4%  
187 0.1% 4%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 2% 3%  
190 0.8% 2%  
191 0.8% 0.9%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations