Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 5–8 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 31.0% 29.7–32.3% 29.4–32.7% 29.0–33.1% 28.4–33.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 232 222–242 220–245 218–247 213–252
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 131 123–139 121–142 119–144 116–148
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 105 98–112 96–114 94–116 91–120
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–81 67–83 66–85 63–88
Die Linke 69 64 58–70 56–72 55–73 53–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 43–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 49 44–54 42–56 41–57 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.3% 99.6%  
214 0.2% 99.3%  
215 0.3% 99.1%  
216 0.5% 98.8%  
217 0.6% 98%  
218 1.0% 98%  
219 1.2% 97%  
220 2% 95%  
221 1.2% 93%  
222 2% 92%  
223 3% 90%  
224 2% 87%  
225 4% 85%  
226 5% 81%  
227 3% 76%  
228 5% 73%  
229 4% 68%  
230 4% 64%  
231 7% 60%  
232 7% 53% Median
233 4% 47%  
234 4% 42%  
235 5% 38%  
236 4% 33%  
237 4% 29%  
238 5% 25%  
239 3% 20%  
240 3% 17%  
241 3% 14%  
242 2% 11%  
243 2% 9%  
244 1.4% 7%  
245 1.0% 5%  
246 0.8% 4%  
247 1.0% 3%  
248 0.8% 2%  
249 0.5% 2%  
250 0.2% 1.1%  
251 0.3% 0.9%  
252 0.2% 0.6%  
253 0.1% 0.5%  
254 0.1% 0.3%  
255 0.1% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.5%  
117 0.5% 99.2%  
118 0.6% 98.7%  
119 0.8% 98%  
120 1.3% 97%  
121 2% 96%  
122 3% 94%  
123 3% 92%  
124 3% 89%  
125 4% 86%  
126 4% 82%  
127 5% 78%  
128 6% 72%  
129 6% 66%  
130 7% 61%  
131 5% 53% Median
132 7% 48%  
133 6% 41%  
134 5% 35%  
135 5% 30%  
136 5% 25%  
137 5% 20%  
138 3% 15%  
139 3% 12%  
140 2% 9%  
141 2% 7%  
142 1.4% 5%  
143 1.2% 4%  
144 0.8% 3%  
145 0.6% 2%  
146 0.5% 1.3%  
147 0.3% 0.8%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.2% 99.6%  
92 0.6% 99.3%  
93 0.7% 98.7%  
94 1.2% 98%  
95 1.3% 97%  
96 2% 96%  
97 3% 94%  
98 4% 91%  
99 4% 87%  
100 4% 83%  
101 6% 79%  
102 7% 73%  
103 6% 66%  
104 7% 60%  
105 6% 53% Median
106 8% 47%  
107 6% 39%  
108 7% 33%  
109 5% 26%  
110 4% 21%  
111 4% 17%  
112 3% 13%  
113 3% 10%  
114 2% 7%  
115 1.4% 5%  
116 1.2% 4%  
117 0.9% 2%  
118 0.5% 2%  
119 0.3% 1.0%  
120 0.3% 0.7%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.7% 99.3%  
65 0.9% 98.6%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 5% 91%  
70 5% 86%  
71 5% 81%  
72 7% 77%  
73 8% 70%  
74 8% 62%  
75 7% 54% Median
76 8% 47%  
77 8% 38%  
78 6% 30%  
79 6% 25%  
80 4% 18%  
81 4% 14%  
82 3% 10%  
83 2% 7%  
84 1.3% 5%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.3% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.6% 99.5%  
54 0.6% 98.9%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 3% 95%  
58 5% 92%  
59 4% 87%  
60 7% 83%  
61 8% 76%  
62 7% 69%  
63 10% 61%  
64 7% 51% Median
65 9% 43%  
66 6% 34%  
67 8% 29%  
68 5% 21%  
69 4% 16% Last Result
70 4% 11%  
71 2% 8%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.1% 3%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96% Last Result
47 4% 94%  
48 5% 90%  
49 6% 85%  
50 8% 79%  
51 10% 71%  
52 10% 61%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 8% 42%  
55 7% 34%  
56 7% 27%  
57 6% 20%  
58 5% 14%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.4%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.5%  
40 0.8% 99.2%  
41 1.3% 98%  
42 2% 97%  
43 5% 95%  
44 4% 90%  
45 9% 86%  
46 5% 77%  
47 11% 73%  
48 7% 62%  
49 13% 55% Median
50 10% 42%  
51 8% 32%  
52 7% 25%  
53 4% 18%  
54 6% 14%  
55 2% 8%  
56 3% 6%  
57 0.9% 3%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.4% 1.1%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 521 100% 512–531 510–533 507–535 503–540
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 465 100% 455–475 452–478 450–480 445–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 439 100% 429–449 426–452 423–454 418–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 416 100% 406–427 403–429 401–432 396–437
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 409 100% 399–419 396–422 393–425 388–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 390 100% 380–400 377–403 374–406 369–411
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 360 74% 350–370 347–373 344–377 340–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 334 0.6% 324–344 320–347 318–350 313–355
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 300 0% 290–310 287–313 284–316 280–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 285 0% 275–295 272–298 270–301 265–305
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 236 0% 226–246 224–249 221–251 217–256
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–178 158–180 156–183 151–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 154 0% 145–163 143–165 141–167 136–171

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.8%  
502 0.1% 99.7%  
503 0.3% 99.6%  
504 0.2% 99.3%  
505 0.5% 99.2%  
506 0.7% 98.7%  
507 0.9% 98%  
508 0.6% 97%  
509 1.2% 96%  
510 2% 95%  
511 2% 93%  
512 2% 91%  
513 3% 89%  
514 3% 86%  
515 5% 83%  
516 3% 79%  
517 5% 75%  
518 6% 71%  
519 6% 64%  
520 5% 59%  
521 4% 53% Median
522 7% 49%  
523 6% 43%  
524 5% 37%  
525 3% 32%  
526 5% 29%  
527 5% 24%  
528 3% 19%  
529 2% 16%  
530 4% 14%  
531 2% 10%  
532 2% 8%  
533 1.5% 6%  
534 2% 5%  
535 0.9% 3%  
536 1.0% 2%  
537 0.3% 1.3%  
538 0.3% 1.1%  
539 0.2% 0.7%  
540 0.2% 0.5%  
541 0.1% 0.3%  
542 0.1% 0.3%  
543 0% 0.2%  
544 0% 0.2%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.8%  
444 0.1% 99.7%  
445 0.2% 99.6%  
446 0.2% 99.4%  
447 0.3% 99.2%  
448 0.3% 98.8%  
449 0.5% 98.5%  
450 0.8% 98%  
451 1.0% 97%  
452 2% 96%  
453 2% 95%  
454 2% 93%  
455 2% 91%  
456 2% 89%  
457 3% 87%  
458 3% 84%  
459 3% 81%  
460 4% 78%  
461 6% 74%  
462 5% 68%  
463 4% 62%  
464 7% 58%  
465 4% 52% Median
466 5% 48%  
467 4% 42%  
468 4% 38%  
469 5% 34%  
470 5% 29%  
471 4% 24%  
472 4% 20%  
473 3% 16%  
474 3% 13%  
475 2% 10%  
476 2% 9%  
477 2% 7%  
478 1.2% 5%  
479 1.1% 4%  
480 1.0% 3%  
481 0.7% 2%  
482 0.5% 2%  
483 0.3% 1.0%  
484 0.2% 0.7%  
485 0.1% 0.5%  
486 0.1% 0.4%  
487 0.1% 0.2%  
488 0% 0.2%  
489 0.1% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.2% 99.6%  
419 0.3% 99.5%  
420 0.2% 99.2%  
421 0.3% 99.0%  
422 0.5% 98.6%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 1.1% 97%  
425 1.0% 96%  
426 1.1% 95%  
427 2% 94%  
428 2% 92%  
429 2% 91%  
430 3% 89%  
431 2% 86%  
432 4% 84%  
433 4% 80%  
434 5% 76%  
435 4% 70%  
436 5% 66%  
437 5% 61%  
438 4% 56%  
439 4% 52% Median
440 5% 48%  
441 8% 43%  
442 4% 36%  
443 5% 32%  
444 3% 27%  
445 5% 25%  
446 3% 19%  
447 3% 16%  
448 2% 13%  
449 3% 11%  
450 1.1% 8%  
451 2% 7%  
452 1.1% 5%  
453 1.4% 4%  
454 0.7% 3%  
455 0.7% 2%  
456 0.4% 2%  
457 0.3% 1.2%  
458 0.3% 0.9%  
459 0.2% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0.1% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.9%  
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0.1% 99.7%  
396 0.2% 99.6%  
397 0.3% 99.4%  
398 0.3% 99.1%  
399 0.5% 98.7%  
400 0.7% 98%  
401 0.6% 98%  
402 1.1% 97%  
403 1.2% 96%  
404 2% 95%  
405 2% 93%  
406 3% 92%  
407 2% 89%  
408 3% 86%  
409 3% 83%  
410 4% 80%  
411 4% 76%  
412 4% 72%  
413 4% 68%  
414 5% 64%  
415 6% 59%  
416 4% 53% Median
417 4% 49%  
418 5% 44%  
419 5% 40%  
420 5% 35%  
421 4% 30%  
422 4% 26%  
423 4% 22%  
424 3% 18%  
425 2% 15%  
426 2% 13%  
427 3% 11%  
428 2% 8%  
429 2% 6%  
430 0.9% 5%  
431 0.9% 4%  
432 0.7% 3%  
433 0.7% 2%  
434 0.3% 1.5%  
435 0.3% 1.2%  
436 0.3% 0.9%  
437 0.1% 0.5%  
438 0.2% 0.4%  
439 0.1% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.7%  
389 0.2% 99.5%  
390 0.3% 99.3%  
391 0.5% 98.9%  
392 0.6% 98%  
393 0.7% 98%  
394 0.8% 97%  
395 0.7% 96%  
396 1.0% 96%  
397 1.1% 95%  
398 3% 94%  
399 3% 91%  
400 3% 88%  
401 4% 85%  
402 3% 81%  
403 4% 78%  
404 2% 74%  
405 3% 71%  
406 4% 68%  
407 4% 64%  
408 6% 59%  
409 7% 53% Median
410 5% 47%  
411 6% 41%  
412 5% 35%  
413 3% 31%  
414 3% 27%  
415 3% 24%  
416 2% 21%  
417 4% 19%  
418 3% 15%  
419 4% 12%  
420 2% 9% Last Result
421 2% 7%  
422 1.3% 5%  
423 0.7% 4%  
424 0.6% 3%  
425 0.6% 3%  
426 0.5% 2%  
427 0.4% 2%  
428 0.4% 1.1%  
429 0.2% 0.7%  
430 0.2% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.2% 99.6%  
370 0.3% 99.5%  
371 0.3% 99.2%  
372 0.4% 98.9%  
373 0.5% 98.5%  
374 0.7% 98%  
375 0.9% 97%  
376 1.0% 96%  
377 1.2% 95%  
378 2% 94%  
379 2% 92%  
380 2% 90%  
381 3% 89%  
382 2% 85%  
383 3% 83%  
384 4% 80%  
385 5% 76%  
386 4% 71%  
387 6% 67%  
388 3% 61%  
389 5% 58%  
390 5% 53% Median
391 5% 48%  
392 5% 43%  
393 4% 38%  
394 5% 34%  
395 4% 29%  
396 4% 25%  
397 3% 21%  
398 3% 18%  
399 3% 15% Last Result
400 2% 12%  
401 2% 10%  
402 2% 8%  
403 2% 6%  
404 0.9% 4%  
405 0.8% 3%  
406 0.7% 3%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.3% 1.1%  
410 0.2% 0.8%  
411 0.2% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
341 0.4% 99.4%  
342 0.5% 99.0%  
343 0.7% 98%  
344 0.6% 98%  
345 0.8% 97%  
346 0.9% 96%  
347 0.5% 95%  
348 1.2% 95%  
349 2% 94%  
350 3% 92%  
351 2% 88%  
352 5% 86%  
353 3% 81%  
354 3% 77%  
355 3% 74% Majority
356 3% 71%  
357 3% 68%  
358 4% 65%  
359 6% 61%  
360 7% 55% Median
361 5% 48%  
362 8% 43%  
363 4% 35%  
364 3% 31%  
365 3% 28%  
366 2% 25%  
367 4% 23%  
368 3% 19%  
369 3% 17%  
370 5% 14%  
371 2% 9%  
372 2% 7%  
373 0.9% 5%  
374 0.7% 4%  
375 0.5% 3%  
376 0.4% 3%  
377 0.6% 3%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0.4% 1.4%  
380 0.4% 1.0%  
381 0.2% 0.6%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.2% 99.6%  
314 0.2% 99.4%  
315 0.3% 99.1%  
316 0.5% 98.8%  
317 0.3% 98%  
318 0.9% 98%  
319 0.8% 97%  
320 2% 96%  
321 1.1% 95%  
322 1.3% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 2% 90%  
325 3% 88%  
326 4% 85% Last Result
327 2% 81%  
328 6% 80%  
329 3% 74%  
330 4% 71%  
331 4% 67%  
332 5% 63%  
333 7% 58%  
334 4% 51% Median
335 6% 46%  
336 4% 41%  
337 4% 37%  
338 4% 32%  
339 3% 29%  
340 6% 26%  
341 4% 20%  
342 2% 16%  
343 3% 14%  
344 1.4% 11%  
345 2% 9%  
346 2% 8%  
347 1.0% 6%  
348 1.5% 5%  
349 0.8% 3%  
350 0.6% 3%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.4% 1.5%  
353 0.3% 1.1%  
354 0.2% 0.8%  
355 0.2% 0.6% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.2% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.4% 99.3%  
282 0.4% 98.9%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.6% 98%  
285 0.6% 97%  
286 0.7% 97%  
287 1.3% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 2% 93% Last Result
290 4% 91%  
291 3% 88%  
292 4% 85%  
293 2% 81%  
294 3% 79%  
295 3% 76%  
296 3% 73%  
297 5% 69%  
298 6% 65%  
299 5% 59%  
300 7% 53% Median
301 6% 47%  
302 4% 41%  
303 4% 36%  
304 3% 32%  
305 2% 29%  
306 4% 26%  
307 3% 22%  
308 4% 19%  
309 3% 15%  
310 3% 12%  
311 3% 9%  
312 1.1% 6%  
313 1.0% 5%  
314 0.7% 4%  
315 0.8% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.6% 2%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 0.7%  
321 0.2% 0.5%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.3% 99.3%  
267 0.4% 99.1%  
268 0.5% 98.6%  
269 0.6% 98%  
270 0.7% 98%  
271 1.2% 97%  
272 1.2% 96%  
273 1.3% 94%  
274 3% 93%  
275 2% 90%  
276 2% 88%  
277 3% 86%  
278 3% 83%  
279 4% 80%  
280 3% 76%  
281 5% 73%  
282 5% 68%  
283 5% 63%  
284 6% 59%  
285 5% 52% Median
286 6% 48%  
287 3% 42%  
288 5% 38%  
289 5% 34%  
290 4% 28%  
291 3% 24%  
292 4% 21%  
293 3% 17%  
294 3% 14%  
295 2% 11%  
296 2% 9%  
297 1.1% 7%  
298 2% 6%  
299 0.9% 4%  
300 0.7% 4% Last Result
301 0.7% 3%  
302 0.6% 2%  
303 0.5% 1.5%  
304 0.3% 1.0%  
305 0.2% 0.7%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.1% 99.8%  
217 0.2% 99.6%  
218 0.3% 99.4%  
219 0.4% 99.1%  
220 0.5% 98.7% Last Result
221 0.8% 98%  
222 0.8% 97%  
223 1.2% 97%  
224 1.4% 95%  
225 2% 94%  
226 2% 92%  
227 3% 90%  
228 3% 87%  
229 3% 84%  
230 4% 81%  
231 4% 78%  
232 5% 73%  
233 4% 69%  
234 6% 65%  
235 4% 60%  
236 7% 56% Median
237 6% 49%  
238 4% 43%  
239 6% 38%  
240 4% 32%  
241 6% 29%  
242 3% 23%  
243 4% 20%  
244 3% 17%  
245 2% 13%  
246 3% 11%  
247 2% 9%  
248 1.2% 7%  
249 1.3% 6%  
250 1.1% 4%  
251 0.8% 3%  
252 0.6% 2%  
253 0.5% 2%  
254 0.4% 1.3%  
255 0.3% 0.9%  
256 0.2% 0.6%  
257 0.1% 0.4%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.3% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.4%  
153 0.3% 99.2%  
154 0.6% 98.9%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 1.1% 98%  
157 1.3% 96%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 93%  
160 3% 92%  
161 3% 89%  
162 3% 86%  
163 5% 83%  
164 5% 78%  
165 5% 72%  
166 4% 68%  
167 6% 64%  
168 5% 57%  
169 6% 53% Median
170 6% 47%  
171 8% 41%  
172 4% 33%  
173 4% 28%  
174 3% 24%  
175 4% 21%  
176 4% 17%  
177 2% 13%  
178 3% 11%  
179 1.5% 8%  
180 2% 6%  
181 1.4% 5%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 1.0% 3%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.6%  
188 0.2% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.7%  
137 0.2% 99.5%  
138 0.2% 99.3%  
139 0.5% 99.1%  
140 0.9% 98.6%  
141 0.9% 98%  
142 0.9% 97%  
143 2% 96%  
144 2% 94%  
145 3% 92%  
146 2% 89%  
147 3% 87%  
148 4% 84%  
149 5% 80%  
150 6% 75%  
151 6% 69%  
152 5% 63%  
153 7% 58%  
154 6% 51% Median
155 5% 45%  
156 4% 40%  
157 6% 36%  
158 7% 30%  
159 4% 23%  
160 4% 19%  
161 3% 15%  
162 2% 12%  
163 3% 10%  
164 2% 7%  
165 1.4% 5%  
166 0.9% 4%  
167 1.0% 3%  
168 0.7% 2%  
169 0.5% 1.4%  
170 0.3% 0.9%  
171 0.2% 0.7%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations