Opinion Poll by Kantar, 4–9 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 31.7% 30.4–33.1% 30.0–33.5% 29.7–33.8% 29.0–34.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.3% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6% 5.9–8.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 240 228–249 227–253 223–254 220–260
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 120–136 119–138 117–141 113–144
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 105–121 104–123 102–126 98–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 67 63–74 61–75 58–77 56–82
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 55 50–60 48–62 47–64 44–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 54 47–56 46–62 46–63 45–64
Die Linke 69 52 48–58 47–60 45–62 42–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.7%  
220 0.5% 99.6%  
221 0.2% 99.1%  
222 0.6% 98.8%  
223 0.7% 98%  
224 0.4% 97%  
225 1.1% 97%  
226 0.5% 96%  
227 1.2% 95%  
228 5% 94%  
229 1.0% 90%  
230 1.2% 89%  
231 3% 88%  
232 3% 85%  
233 3% 81%  
234 6% 78%  
235 1.2% 72%  
236 11% 71%  
237 3% 59%  
238 2% 56%  
239 2% 54%  
240 7% 53% Median
241 9% 46%  
242 8% 36%  
243 2% 28%  
244 2% 26%  
245 1.1% 24%  
246 2% 23%  
247 5% 21%  
248 6% 16%  
249 3% 10%  
250 0.7% 7%  
251 0.7% 6%  
252 0.4% 6%  
253 2% 5%  
254 1.4% 3%  
255 0.6% 2%  
256 0.2% 1.2%  
257 0.2% 1.0%  
258 0.1% 0.8%  
259 0.1% 0.8%  
260 0.4% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.5% 99.4%  
115 0.4% 98.9%  
116 0.7% 98.5%  
117 0.9% 98%  
118 2% 97%  
119 5% 95%  
120 1.2% 91%  
121 2% 89%  
122 3% 87%  
123 6% 84%  
124 9% 77%  
125 4% 68%  
126 11% 64%  
127 4% 53% Median
128 5% 49%  
129 3% 44%  
130 7% 41%  
131 2% 35%  
132 6% 32%  
133 10% 26%  
134 2% 17%  
135 4% 14%  
136 2% 10%  
137 3% 8%  
138 0.8% 5%  
139 1.2% 4%  
140 0.5% 3%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.4% 1.1%  
144 0.2% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.5% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.2%  
100 0.3% 98.7%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 1.0% 98%  
103 1.2% 97%  
104 5% 96%  
105 4% 91%  
106 5% 87%  
107 2% 82%  
108 3% 79%  
109 3% 76%  
110 4% 72%  
111 7% 68%  
112 8% 61%  
113 9% 53% Median
114 2% 45%  
115 4% 42%  
116 7% 38%  
117 5% 31%  
118 7% 26%  
119 7% 19%  
120 2% 12%  
121 2% 10%  
122 1.3% 8%  
123 2% 7%  
124 0.7% 5%  
125 1.4% 4%  
126 1.2% 3%  
127 0.4% 1.4%  
128 0.1% 1.0%  
129 0.3% 0.9%  
130 0.1% 0.6%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.8% 99.3%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 1.1% 97%  
60 1.2% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 1.5% 93%  
63 4% 92%  
64 3% 88%  
65 11% 84%  
66 12% 73%  
67 12% 61% Median
68 7% 50%  
69 2% 43%  
70 10% 41%  
71 3% 30%  
72 8% 28%  
73 7% 20%  
74 5% 13%  
75 3% 7%  
76 1.4% 4%  
77 0.9% 3%  
78 0.3% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 1.1%  
81 0.1% 0.7%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 0.5% 99.3%  
46 0.9% 98.8% Last Result
47 2% 98%  
48 1.5% 96%  
49 2% 94%  
50 6% 93%  
51 8% 86%  
52 5% 78%  
53 4% 73%  
54 15% 69%  
55 6% 54% Median
56 12% 48%  
57 4% 37%  
58 7% 33%  
59 9% 26%  
60 9% 17%  
61 2% 8%  
62 0.8% 5%  
63 1.2% 5%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.1%  
67 0.1% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.8%  
46 8% 98.7%  
47 16% 91%  
48 4% 75%  
49 0.9% 72%  
50 0.1% 71%  
51 0% 71%  
52 0.1% 71%  
53 2% 71%  
54 20% 69% Median
55 35% 49%  
56 7% 14%  
57 2% 7%  
58 0.1% 5%  
59 0% 5%  
60 0% 5%  
61 0.1% 5%  
62 0.9% 5%  
63 3% 4%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.8% 99.5%  
44 0.4% 98.6%  
45 1.0% 98%  
46 1.5% 97%  
47 2% 96%  
48 5% 94%  
49 8% 89%  
50 12% 80%  
51 10% 69%  
52 13% 58% Median
53 10% 45%  
54 7% 35%  
55 12% 28%  
56 4% 16%  
57 2% 12%  
58 4% 10%  
59 1.4% 6%  
60 2% 5%  
61 0.8% 3%  
62 0.6% 3%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.0%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 536 100% 529–543 525–546 522–548 517–554
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 475 100% 466–485 463–486 460–489 455–495
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 461 100% 449–472 448–472 444–475 439–479
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 422 100% 412–431 410–435 407–437 401–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 417 100% 403–423 400–425 399–428 394–436
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 407 100% 397–417 393–421 391–423 387–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 364 86% 352–370 347–373 346–377 340–384
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 348 22% 337–357 334–360 331–361 325–368
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 292 0% 286–306 284–309 281–310 273–315
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 293 0% 285–305 283–307 279–310 275–315
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 241 0% 233–251 230–253 228–256 222–263
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 158–174 156–177 153–180 149–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 156–174 155–178 152–180 148–185

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 99.9%  
513 0% 99.9%  
514 0.1% 99.9%  
515 0.1% 99.8%  
516 0.1% 99.7%  
517 0.2% 99.6%  
518 0.8% 99.4%  
519 0.4% 98.6%  
520 0.1% 98%  
521 0.5% 98%  
522 0.7% 98%  
523 0.4% 97%  
524 1.2% 96%  
525 1.2% 95%  
526 0.8% 94%  
527 2% 93%  
528 1.0% 91%  
529 6% 90%  
530 3% 85%  
531 6% 81%  
532 4% 75%  
533 8% 70%  
534 8% 62%  
535 3% 55% Median
536 11% 52%  
537 2% 41%  
538 11% 39%  
539 5% 29%  
540 4% 23%  
541 2% 20%  
542 5% 18%  
543 3% 12%  
544 3% 9%  
545 1.0% 6%  
546 1.4% 5%  
547 1.0% 4%  
548 1.0% 3%  
549 0.4% 2%  
550 0.2% 1.5%  
551 0.3% 1.3%  
552 0.3% 1.1%  
553 0.2% 0.7%  
554 0.3% 0.6%  
555 0% 0.3%  
556 0% 0.2%  
557 0.1% 0.2%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0.1% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.8%  
453 0.2% 99.8%  
454 0.1% 99.6%  
455 0.1% 99.5%  
456 0.2% 99.4%  
457 0.6% 99.3%  
458 0.4% 98.7%  
459 0.6% 98%  
460 0.4% 98%  
461 0.4% 97%  
462 1.0% 97%  
463 1.2% 96%  
464 0.6% 95%  
465 3% 94%  
466 2% 91%  
467 3% 89%  
468 4% 86%  
469 0.7% 81%  
470 3% 81%  
471 5% 78%  
472 13% 73%  
473 2% 60%  
474 8% 58%  
475 3% 51%  
476 3% 48% Median
477 6% 45%  
478 3% 39%  
479 0.9% 36%  
480 15% 35%  
481 3% 21%  
482 3% 17%  
483 2% 14%  
484 2% 12%  
485 4% 10%  
486 2% 7%  
487 0.8% 4%  
488 0.5% 3%  
489 0.7% 3%  
490 0.5% 2%  
491 0.3% 2%  
492 0.3% 2%  
493 0.3% 1.2%  
494 0.3% 0.9%  
495 0.3% 0.6%  
496 0.2% 0.3%  
497 0% 0.2%  
498 0.1% 0.2%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.2% 99.9%  
438 0.2% 99.7%  
439 0.2% 99.5%  
440 0.1% 99.4%  
441 0.1% 99.3%  
442 0.3% 99.2%  
443 0.9% 98.9%  
444 0.7% 98%  
445 0.4% 97%  
446 0.1% 97%  
447 2% 97%  
448 4% 95%  
449 1.4% 91%  
450 0.3% 90%  
451 1.0% 89%  
452 5% 88%  
453 9% 83%  
454 0.7% 74%  
455 0.6% 73%  
456 4% 73%  
457 9% 69%  
458 3% 60%  
459 3% 57%  
460 2% 54%  
461 4% 52%  
462 8% 48% Median
463 5% 40%  
464 4% 35%  
465 1.2% 31%  
466 0.8% 30%  
467 7% 29%  
468 9% 23%  
469 2% 14%  
470 0.4% 12%  
471 1.1% 12%  
472 6% 11%  
473 1.3% 4%  
474 0.4% 3%  
475 0.2% 3%  
476 0.5% 2%  
477 0.9% 2%  
478 0.6% 1.1%  
479 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0.2% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.5%  
402 0.2% 99.4%  
403 0.3% 99.2%  
404 0.3% 98.9%  
405 0.1% 98.6%  
406 0.9% 98.5%  
407 0.5% 98%  
408 0.6% 97%  
409 0.6% 97%  
410 2% 96%  
411 3% 94%  
412 0.7% 90%  
413 1.0% 90%  
414 0.7% 89%  
415 3% 88%  
416 6% 85%  
417 5% 79%  
418 6% 74%  
419 1.1% 68%  
420 7% 67%  
421 3% 59%  
422 8% 56% Median
423 1.4% 48%  
424 2% 47%  
425 9% 45%  
426 9% 36%  
427 7% 27%  
428 0.9% 20%  
429 0.9% 19%  
430 6% 18%  
431 3% 12%  
432 0.9% 9%  
433 0.8% 8%  
434 1.3% 7%  
435 2% 6%  
436 1.1% 4%  
437 0.3% 3%  
438 0.4% 2%  
439 0.4% 2%  
440 0.4% 2%  
441 0.6% 1.1%  
442 0.1% 0.5%  
443 0% 0.4%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0% 99.7%  
394 0.3% 99.7%  
395 0.5% 99.4%  
396 0.3% 98.9%  
397 0.6% 98.6%  
398 0.3% 98%  
399 0.5% 98%  
400 3% 97%  
401 0.5% 95%  
402 3% 94%  
403 1.1% 91%  
404 0.8% 90%  
405 1.4% 89%  
406 0.5% 88%  
407 2% 87%  
408 1.1% 85%  
409 3% 84%  
410 3% 81%  
411 0.7% 78%  
412 8% 78%  
413 3% 69%  
414 4% 67%  
415 5% 63%  
416 5% 58% Median
417 11% 53%  
418 5% 43%  
419 5% 37%  
420 9% 32% Last Result
421 5% 23%  
422 1.1% 18%  
423 9% 17%  
424 3% 8%  
425 2% 6%  
426 0.2% 4%  
427 0.6% 4%  
428 0.8% 3%  
429 0.1% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.4% 2%  
432 0.4% 2%  
433 0.1% 1.4%  
434 0.6% 1.3%  
435 0.2% 0.7%  
436 0.1% 0.6%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.4%  
439 0.2% 0.3%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.5% 99.6%  
388 0.3% 99.1%  
389 0.1% 98.8%  
390 0.6% 98.6%  
391 0.6% 98%  
392 0.4% 97%  
393 3% 97%  
394 0.7% 94%  
395 0.9% 94%  
396 0.6% 93%  
397 6% 92%  
398 5% 86%  
399 2% 82% Last Result
400 1.2% 80%  
401 4% 79%  
402 2% 75%  
403 5% 72%  
404 3% 67%  
405 2% 64%  
406 5% 62%  
407 11% 57%  
408 2% 46% Median
409 0.9% 44%  
410 3% 43%  
411 5% 40%  
412 2% 35%  
413 5% 33%  
414 7% 28%  
415 0.8% 21%  
416 4% 20%  
417 8% 16%  
418 0.8% 8%  
419 0.3% 7%  
420 0.5% 7%  
421 3% 6%  
422 0.6% 3%  
423 1.3% 3%  
424 0.1% 1.4%  
425 0.1% 1.2%  
426 0.4% 1.2%  
427 0.3% 0.7%  
428 0.2% 0.4%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.2% 99.9%  
340 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
341 0.1% 99.5%  
342 0.4% 99.4%  
343 0.6% 99.0%  
344 0.5% 98%  
345 0.3% 98%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 3% 97%  
348 1.3% 94%  
349 0.9% 93%  
350 0.4% 92%  
351 1.0% 92%  
352 2% 91%  
353 2% 89%  
354 0.6% 86%  
355 3% 86% Majority
356 0.7% 83%  
357 5% 82%  
358 2% 77%  
359 2% 75%  
360 4% 74%  
361 3% 70%  
362 12% 67% Median
363 2% 55%  
364 5% 53%  
365 11% 48%  
366 8% 37%  
367 4% 29%  
368 2% 24%  
369 12% 23%  
370 2% 10%  
371 0.8% 8%  
372 1.1% 7%  
373 3% 6%  
374 0.2% 4%  
375 0.9% 4%  
376 0.1% 3%  
377 0.5% 3%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.1% 2%  
380 0.7% 2%  
381 0.1% 0.9%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0.1% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0.2% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
327 0.2% 99.2%  
328 0.1% 99.0%  
329 0.4% 98.9%  
330 0.6% 98%  
331 0.4% 98%  
332 0.9% 97%  
333 0.4% 97%  
334 1.4% 96%  
335 2% 95%  
336 1.4% 93%  
337 4% 91%  
338 3% 87%  
339 5% 85%  
340 5% 80%  
341 2% 75%  
342 1.5% 73%  
343 4% 72%  
344 5% 67%  
345 3% 62%  
346 2% 60%  
347 6% 58%  
348 4% 52%  
349 9% 48% Median
350 2% 39%  
351 5% 37%  
352 4% 33%  
353 5% 29%  
354 1.2% 24%  
355 5% 22% Majority
356 6% 17%  
357 1.3% 11%  
358 3% 10%  
359 0.7% 7%  
360 3% 7%  
361 0.8% 3%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.6% 2%  
364 0.1% 1.4%  
365 0.3% 1.3%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.3% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.2% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.6% 99.3%  
276 0.1% 98.7%  
277 0.4% 98.6%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.1% 98%  
281 0.8% 98%  
282 0.6% 97%  
283 0.2% 96%  
284 2% 96%  
285 3% 94%  
286 9% 92%  
287 1.1% 83%  
288 5% 82%  
289 9% 77% Last Result
290 5% 68%  
291 5% 63%  
292 11% 57% Median
293 5% 47%  
294 5% 42%  
295 4% 37%  
296 3% 33%  
297 8% 31%  
298 0.7% 22%  
299 3% 22%  
300 3% 19%  
301 1.1% 16%  
302 2% 15%  
303 0.5% 13%  
304 1.4% 12%  
305 0.8% 11%  
306 1.1% 10%  
307 3% 9%  
308 0.5% 6%  
309 3% 5%  
310 0.5% 3%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.6% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.4%  
314 0.5% 1.1%  
315 0.3% 0.6%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.2% 99.5%  
276 0.7% 99.3%  
277 0.3% 98.7%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 0.7% 98%  
280 0.4% 97%  
281 0.4% 97%  
282 1.2% 96%  
283 2% 95%  
284 2% 93%  
285 4% 91%  
286 2% 87%  
287 0.9% 85%  
288 5% 84%  
289 5% 79%  
290 8% 74%  
291 6% 66%  
292 7% 61%  
293 5% 54%  
294 7% 49% Median
295 7% 42%  
296 2% 35%  
297 5% 34%  
298 2% 29%  
299 3% 26%  
300 7% 23% Last Result
301 1.0% 17%  
302 1.5% 16%  
303 2% 14%  
304 2% 13%  
305 1.5% 10%  
306 2% 9%  
307 3% 7%  
308 0.7% 4%  
309 0.5% 3%  
310 0.3% 3%  
311 0.9% 2%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.2% 1.0%  
314 0.3% 0.9%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0.3% 99.7%  
223 0.3% 99.4%  
224 0.6% 99.1%  
225 0.2% 98.6%  
226 0.1% 98%  
227 0.1% 98%  
228 1.3% 98%  
229 2% 97%  
230 2% 95%  
231 1.2% 93%  
232 1.1% 92%  
233 1.0% 91%  
234 3% 89%  
235 4% 86%  
236 10% 82%  
237 7% 72%  
238 7% 65%  
239 6% 58%  
240 0.2% 52% Median
241 9% 51%  
242 3% 43%  
243 6% 39%  
244 3% 34%  
245 9% 30%  
246 1.4% 21%  
247 1.1% 20%  
248 0.5% 19%  
249 3% 18%  
250 2% 15%  
251 4% 13%  
252 4% 9%  
253 0.6% 5%  
254 0.1% 5%  
255 0.4% 5%  
256 2% 4%  
257 1.0% 2%  
258 0.3% 1.5%  
259 0.5% 1.2%  
260 0% 0.7%  
261 0% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0.2% 0.5%  
264 0.1% 0.4%  
265 0.1% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.2%  
267 0.1% 0.2%  
268 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.7%  
148 0.1% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.6%  
150 0.3% 99.4%  
151 0.5% 99.1%  
152 0.9% 98.5%  
153 0.4% 98%  
154 0.4% 97%  
155 1.0% 97%  
156 3% 96%  
157 2% 93%  
158 4% 91%  
159 7% 87%  
160 2% 80%  
161 6% 78%  
162 8% 72%  
163 3% 64%  
164 4% 61%  
165 7% 57% Median
166 8% 50%  
167 9% 42%  
168 2% 33%  
169 5% 32%  
170 9% 26%  
171 1.0% 18%  
172 2% 17%  
173 0.9% 14%  
174 4% 14%  
175 0.9% 10%  
176 3% 9%  
177 1.4% 6%  
178 0.8% 5%  
179 0.9% 4%  
180 0.5% 3%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0.6% 1.3%  
184 0.1% 0.7%  
185 0.3% 0.7%  
186 0.2% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0.4% 99.8%  
149 0.7% 99.4%  
150 0.8% 98.7%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0.3% 98%  
153 0.7% 97%  
154 0.9% 97%  
155 2% 96%  
156 4% 93%  
157 2% 90%  
158 0.9% 88%  
159 4% 87%  
160 5% 82%  
161 6% 78%  
162 5% 72%  
163 6% 67%  
164 3% 61%  
165 0.9% 58%  
166 11% 57%  
167 6% 46% Median
168 7% 40%  
169 3% 33%  
170 4% 31%  
171 2% 27%  
172 6% 25%  
173 1.4% 19%  
174 8% 17%  
175 3% 9%  
176 0.7% 7%  
177 1.0% 6%  
178 0.8% 5%  
179 0.5% 4%  
180 1.4% 4%  
181 1.1% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.3%  
183 0.1% 0.9%  
184 0.2% 0.8%  
185 0.2% 0.6%  
186 0.1% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations