Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 12–15 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 31.3% 30.0–32.6% 29.7–33.0% 29.4–33.4% 28.7–34.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.2% 17.1–19.3% 16.8–19.6% 16.6–19.9% 16.1–20.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.2% 13.2–15.2% 12.9–15.5% 12.7–15.7% 12.3–16.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.1% 9.3–11.0% 9.1–11.3% 8.9–11.5% 8.5–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.1% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 7.0–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.1% 6.4–7.8% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 232 225–243 223–247 220–249 214–253
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 128–144 126–147 123–148 120–153
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 106 98–113 97–115 95–118 92–121
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–82 68–84 66–86 64–89
Die Linke 69 59 54–66 53–68 52–70 49–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 54 48–58 47–60 45–62 42–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 46 40–51 39–52 38–53 36–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.2% 99.7%  
214 0.1% 99.5%  
215 0.1% 99.5%  
216 0.4% 99.4%  
217 0.2% 99.0%  
218 0.5% 98.8%  
219 0.2% 98%  
220 0.8% 98%  
221 0.9% 97%  
222 1.3% 96%  
223 3% 95%  
224 0.4% 92%  
225 3% 92%  
226 2% 89%  
227 6% 87%  
228 12% 81%  
229 2% 69%  
230 3% 67%  
231 7% 64%  
232 10% 58% Median
233 12% 48%  
234 2% 36%  
235 2% 33%  
236 1.4% 31%  
237 6% 30%  
238 6% 24%  
239 1.3% 18%  
240 2% 17%  
241 1.4% 15%  
242 0.7% 14%  
243 5% 13%  
244 0.9% 8%  
245 1.2% 7%  
246 0.7% 6%  
247 1.0% 6%  
248 2% 5%  
249 1.0% 3%  
250 0.2% 2%  
251 0.1% 1.4%  
252 0.4% 1.3%  
253 0.6% 0.9%  
254 0.1% 0.3%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0.1% 0.2%  
257 0.1% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.6%  
121 0.6% 99.4%  
122 0.3% 98.8%  
123 1.0% 98%  
124 0.5% 97%  
125 2% 97%  
126 1.2% 95%  
127 2% 94%  
128 3% 92%  
129 3% 89%  
130 2% 86%  
131 3% 84%  
132 9% 81%  
133 6% 71%  
134 9% 65%  
135 8% 57% Median
136 4% 49%  
137 3% 45%  
138 7% 42%  
139 6% 35%  
140 10% 29%  
141 4% 18%  
142 1.4% 14%  
143 1.3% 13%  
144 3% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 2% 7%  
147 1.0% 5%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.6% 1.4%  
152 0.2% 0.8%  
153 0.3% 0.6%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.4% 99.6%  
93 0.4% 99.2%  
94 1.1% 98.8%  
95 1.0% 98%  
96 1.4% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 3% 92%  
99 3% 89%  
100 3% 86%  
101 7% 82%  
102 13% 75%  
103 3% 62%  
104 3% 59%  
105 5% 56%  
106 5% 51% Median
107 9% 46%  
108 6% 37%  
109 3% 30%  
110 6% 27%  
111 2% 21%  
112 4% 19%  
113 5% 14%  
114 4% 10%  
115 1.2% 6%  
116 1.3% 4%  
117 0.5% 3%  
118 1.1% 3%  
119 0.7% 2%  
120 0.2% 0.8%  
121 0.2% 0.6%  
122 0.2% 0.5%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.6%  
65 1.0% 99.0%  
66 1.1% 98%  
67 1.5% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 4% 93%  
70 4% 88%  
71 5% 84%  
72 5% 79%  
73 3% 75%  
74 8% 71%  
75 17% 63% Median
76 7% 46%  
77 5% 39%  
78 5% 34%  
79 8% 28%  
80 8% 20%  
81 2% 12%  
82 2% 10%  
83 1.1% 8%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.4% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.9%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.6%  
50 0.7% 99.2%  
51 0.8% 98.6%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 7% 89%  
56 4% 82%  
57 6% 78%  
58 14% 72%  
59 10% 58% Median
60 5% 48%  
61 5% 42%  
62 5% 38%  
63 7% 33%  
64 9% 26%  
65 7% 17%  
66 2% 11%  
67 3% 8%  
68 1.4% 6%  
69 1.5% 4% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.3%  
44 0.9% 99.0%  
45 0.9% 98%  
46 1.4% 97%  
47 4% 96%  
48 3% 92%  
49 8% 88%  
50 6% 81%  
51 10% 74%  
52 6% 65%  
53 5% 59%  
54 14% 54% Median
55 13% 40%  
56 9% 27%  
57 6% 18%  
58 2% 12%  
59 4% 10%  
60 1.4% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.7% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.3% 99.7%  
37 1.3% 99.4%  
38 1.0% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 5% 95%  
41 4% 90%  
42 10% 86%  
43 4% 76%  
44 10% 72%  
45 9% 61%  
46 13% 52% Last Result, Median
47 6% 39%  
48 12% 33%  
49 6% 21%  
50 5% 16%  
51 4% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.4% 1.3%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 521 100% 511–530 508–532 506–533 502–537
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 469 100% 456–478 453–479 451–480 448–485
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 436 100% 428–449 423–451 421–452 418–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 415 100% 403–424 401–427 398–430 394–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 409 100% 397–416 395–420 392–423 386–428
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 100% 375–395 371–399 368–400 364–404
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 354 47% 345–364 342–367 339–370 335–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 332 0.3% 321–343 318–345 316–348 312–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 300 0% 293–312 289–314 286–317 281–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 296 0% 285–304 282–306 279–309 275–314
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 242 0% 232–251 230–253 227–256 221–260
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 165 0% 158–177 155–178 154–179 151–184
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 151–167 148–169 146–171 142–176

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0.1% 100%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0.1% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.8%  
501 0.2% 99.7%  
502 0.4% 99.5%  
503 0.1% 99.1%  
504 0.6% 99.0%  
505 0.3% 98%  
506 1.2% 98%  
507 1.1% 97%  
508 1.4% 96%  
509 0.7% 94%  
510 3% 94%  
511 2% 91%  
512 3% 89%  
513 2% 86%  
514 2% 84%  
515 3% 82%  
516 9% 78%  
517 6% 69%  
518 2% 64%  
519 6% 62% Median
520 4% 56%  
521 14% 52%  
522 7% 38%  
523 3% 31%  
524 2% 28%  
525 5% 26%  
526 3% 21%  
527 3% 17%  
528 2% 14%  
529 0.9% 12%  
530 3% 11%  
531 3% 8%  
532 1.4% 5%  
533 1.4% 4%  
534 0.3% 2%  
535 0.8% 2%  
536 0.2% 1.3%  
537 0.6% 1.1%  
538 0.1% 0.5%  
539 0.1% 0.4%  
540 0.1% 0.3%  
541 0.1% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0.1% 100%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.8%  
447 0.3% 99.8%  
448 0.2% 99.5%  
449 0.9% 99.3%  
450 0.5% 98%  
451 0.3% 98%  
452 0.5% 97%  
453 5% 97%  
454 0.5% 92%  
455 0.8% 92%  
456 1.1% 91%  
457 1.0% 90%  
458 5% 89%  
459 5% 84%  
460 0.6% 79%  
461 3% 79%  
462 1.4% 76%  
463 4% 75%  
464 2% 71%  
465 5% 68%  
466 1.3% 64%  
467 2% 63% Median
468 6% 61%  
469 11% 54%  
470 5% 43%  
471 1.3% 38%  
472 3% 37%  
473 3% 34%  
474 13% 31%  
475 5% 18%  
476 1.4% 14%  
477 0.6% 12%  
478 5% 12%  
479 2% 6%  
480 2% 5%  
481 0.2% 2%  
482 0.3% 2%  
483 0.6% 2%  
484 0.3% 1.1%  
485 0.4% 0.8%  
486 0.1% 0.4%  
487 0.1% 0.3%  
488 0.1% 0.2%  
489 0.1% 0.2%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.6% 99.7%  
419 0.6% 99.0%  
420 0.6% 98%  
421 0.9% 98%  
422 1.2% 97%  
423 2% 96%  
424 0.4% 94%  
425 0.5% 93%  
426 1.5% 93%  
427 1.0% 91%  
428 0.5% 90%  
429 1.0% 90%  
430 1.3% 89%  
431 7% 87%  
432 2% 80%  
433 4% 78%  
434 8% 74%  
435 7% 66%  
436 13% 59%  
437 3% 46%  
438 7% 43% Median
439 5% 36%  
440 2% 31%  
441 1.4% 29%  
442 1.4% 28%  
443 0.9% 26%  
444 2% 25%  
445 3% 24%  
446 5% 21%  
447 2% 16%  
448 2% 14%  
449 2% 11%  
450 3% 9%  
451 3% 6%  
452 0.7% 3%  
453 1.3% 2%  
454 0.3% 1.1%  
455 0.3% 0.8%  
456 0.1% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.4%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0.1% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7%  
394 0.3% 99.6%  
395 0.1% 99.3%  
396 0.5% 99.2%  
397 0.5% 98.8%  
398 0.9% 98%  
399 0.5% 97%  
400 1.1% 97%  
401 1.0% 96%  
402 0.9% 95%  
403 4% 94%  
404 1.0% 90%  
405 2% 89%  
406 0.7% 87%  
407 6% 86%  
408 2% 80%  
409 2% 78%  
410 6% 76%  
411 3% 70%  
412 9% 67%  
413 1.4% 57% Median
414 3% 56%  
415 10% 53%  
416 2% 43%  
417 3% 41%  
418 2% 38%  
419 13% 37%  
420 4% 24%  
421 3% 20%  
422 0.8% 17%  
423 2% 16%  
424 6% 14%  
425 1.4% 8%  
426 0.7% 7%  
427 1.3% 6%  
428 0.9% 5%  
429 1.2% 4%  
430 0.5% 3%  
431 0.4% 2%  
432 0.2% 2%  
433 0.9% 2%  
434 0.4% 0.8%  
435 0% 0.4%  
436 0% 0.4%  
437 0.2% 0.3%  
438 0.1% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.2% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.6%  
387 0.2% 99.4%  
388 0.1% 99.2%  
389 0.2% 99.0%  
390 0.8% 98.9%  
391 0.3% 98%  
392 0.3% 98%  
393 0.7% 97%  
394 2% 97%  
395 1.4% 95%  
396 2% 94%  
397 2% 91%  
398 5% 89%  
399 1.2% 85%  
400 5% 83%  
401 4% 79%  
402 3% 75%  
403 4% 72%  
404 2% 68%  
405 3% 66%  
406 6% 64%  
407 3% 57% Median
408 2% 54%  
409 10% 52%  
410 8% 42%  
411 2% 34%  
412 6% 32%  
413 6% 26%  
414 6% 21%  
415 2% 15%  
416 3% 12%  
417 0.9% 10%  
418 3% 9%  
419 1.3% 6%  
420 0.9% 5% Last Result
421 1.1% 4%  
422 0.2% 3%  
423 0.6% 3%  
424 1.0% 2%  
425 0.2% 1.4%  
426 0.5% 1.2%  
427 0.1% 0.7%  
428 0.1% 0.5%  
429 0.2% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.2% 0.3%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.2% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 1.0% 99.4%  
366 0.1% 98%  
367 0.2% 98%  
368 0.8% 98%  
369 0.4% 97%  
370 1.1% 97%  
371 1.3% 96%  
372 1.4% 95%  
373 0.8% 93%  
374 2% 92%  
375 2% 90%  
376 1.4% 88%  
377 6% 87%  
378 2% 81%  
379 6% 79%  
380 3% 73%  
381 14% 70%  
382 2% 57%  
383 4% 54%  
384 7% 50% Median
385 3% 44%  
386 4% 40%  
387 5% 37%  
388 2% 32%  
389 2% 30%  
390 7% 27%  
391 1.5% 21%  
392 3% 19%  
393 1.4% 16%  
394 4% 14%  
395 1.3% 11%  
396 3% 9%  
397 1.1% 7%  
398 0.4% 5%  
399 1.3% 5% Last Result
400 2% 4%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.6% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.0%  
404 0.3% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.7%  
335 0.3% 99.5%  
336 0.3% 99.2%  
337 0.3% 99.0%  
338 0.9% 98.6%  
339 1.0% 98%  
340 1.3% 97% Last Result
341 0.4% 95%  
342 1.2% 95%  
343 0.7% 94%  
344 2% 93%  
345 2% 91%  
346 2% 89%  
347 8% 87%  
348 2% 78%  
349 2% 76%  
350 5% 74%  
351 4% 69%  
352 4% 65%  
353 4% 62% Median
354 11% 58%  
355 2% 47% Majority
356 12% 45%  
357 4% 33%  
358 2% 29%  
359 6% 26%  
360 2% 21%  
361 4% 19%  
362 2% 15%  
363 1.3% 13%  
364 2% 11%  
365 2% 9%  
366 0.6% 7%  
367 2% 6%  
368 0.8% 4%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.6% 3%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.1% 1.2%  
374 0.5% 1.0%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.2% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.5% 99.5%  
313 0.5% 99.0%  
314 0.2% 98.6%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.6% 98%  
317 0.9% 97%  
318 3% 96%  
319 0.5% 93%  
320 1.1% 93%  
321 4% 92%  
322 2% 88%  
323 1.1% 86%  
324 4% 85%  
325 4% 81%  
326 3% 77% Last Result
327 3% 74%  
328 3% 71%  
329 3% 67%  
330 7% 64%  
331 4% 57%  
332 4% 52% Median
333 2% 49%  
334 12% 47%  
335 2% 35%  
336 6% 34%  
337 4% 28%  
338 3% 23%  
339 4% 21%  
340 2% 16%  
341 3% 15%  
342 2% 12%  
343 4% 10%  
344 1.0% 6%  
345 0.8% 5%  
346 1.3% 4%  
347 0.4% 3%  
348 0.8% 3%  
349 0.7% 2%  
350 0.3% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.3% 0.8%  
353 0.2% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0.2% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0.1% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.2% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.5% 99.3%  
284 0.2% 98.8%  
285 1.0% 98.6%  
286 0.6% 98%  
287 0.2% 97%  
288 1.1% 97%  
289 0.9% 96% Last Result
290 1.3% 95%  
291 3% 94%  
292 0.9% 91%  
293 3% 90%  
294 2% 88%  
295 6% 85%  
296 6% 79%  
297 6% 74%  
298 2% 68%  
299 8% 66%  
300 10% 58% Median
301 2% 48%  
302 3% 46%  
303 6% 43%  
304 3% 36%  
305 2% 34%  
306 4% 32%  
307 3% 28%  
308 4% 25%  
309 5% 21%  
310 1.2% 17%  
311 5% 15%  
312 2% 11%  
313 2% 9%  
314 1.4% 6%  
315 2% 5%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.8% 2%  
320 0.2% 1.1%  
321 0.1% 1.0%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.2% 0.6%  
324 0.2% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.4% 99.5%  
276 0.4% 99.1%  
277 0.6% 98.8%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.7% 98%  
280 0.9% 97%  
281 1.0% 96%  
282 1.2% 95%  
283 1.2% 94%  
284 2% 93%  
285 3% 90%  
286 0.8% 87%  
287 2% 86%  
288 4% 84%  
289 3% 80%  
290 3% 77%  
291 3% 74%  
292 2% 71%  
293 5% 68%  
294 7% 63%  
295 6% 56% Median
296 5% 51%  
297 12% 46%  
298 5% 33%  
299 5% 28%  
300 5% 23% Last Result
301 1.1% 19%  
302 5% 18%  
303 0.9% 13%  
304 4% 12%  
305 3% 9%  
306 0.8% 5%  
307 1.1% 4%  
308 0.7% 3%  
309 0.6% 3%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.8% 1.5%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0% 99.7% Last Result
221 0.3% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.3%  
223 0.3% 99.2%  
224 0.4% 98.9%  
225 0.2% 98%  
226 0.6% 98%  
227 0.6% 98%  
228 0.4% 97%  
229 0.8% 97%  
230 4% 96%  
231 0.7% 92%  
232 4% 91%  
233 2% 87%  
234 1.0% 85%  
235 5% 84%  
236 0.5% 79%  
237 6% 78%  
238 0.6% 72%  
239 2% 72%  
240 9% 69%  
241 0.6% 60% Median
242 20% 59%  
243 2% 39%  
244 2% 37%  
245 10% 35%  
246 5% 25%  
247 1.0% 20%  
248 6% 19%  
249 1.4% 14%  
250 1.4% 12%  
251 3% 11%  
252 0.3% 8%  
253 3% 8%  
254 0.1% 4%  
255 1.1% 4%  
256 1.4% 3%  
257 0.2% 2%  
258 0.8% 2%  
259 0.2% 0.8%  
260 0.2% 0.6%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.3%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0.1% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.1% 99.6%  
151 0.1% 99.5%  
152 0.9% 99.4%  
153 0.7% 98.5%  
154 1.5% 98%  
155 2% 96%  
156 0.9% 94%  
157 0.9% 94%  
158 4% 93%  
159 3% 88%  
160 18% 85%  
161 5% 68%  
162 5% 63%  
163 3% 58%  
164 4% 56%  
165 11% 52% Median
166 7% 41%  
167 1.3% 35%  
168 1.3% 33%  
169 1.0% 32%  
170 2% 31%  
171 4% 29%  
172 6% 25%  
173 2% 19%  
174 0.5% 17%  
175 2% 16%  
176 1.2% 15%  
177 8% 13%  
178 2% 6%  
179 2% 4%  
180 0.2% 2%  
181 0.2% 2%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.7% 1.2%  
184 0.3% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.2% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.6%  
143 0.2% 99.5%  
144 0.7% 99.2%  
145 0.4% 98.5%  
146 2% 98%  
147 1.1% 96%  
148 0.8% 95%  
149 3% 94%  
150 1.3% 92%  
151 2% 91%  
152 5% 89%  
153 2% 84%  
154 6% 82%  
155 8% 76%  
156 3% 68%  
157 12% 65%  
158 4% 53%  
159 5% 49%  
160 5% 44% Median
161 5% 39%  
162 4% 35%  
163 6% 31%  
164 1.4% 25%  
165 4% 24%  
166 9% 20%  
167 0.9% 10%  
168 3% 9%  
169 3% 6%  
170 0.5% 4%  
171 1.0% 3%  
172 0.6% 2%  
173 0.3% 2%  
174 0.5% 1.2%  
175 0.2% 0.7%  
176 0.2% 0.5%  
177 0.2% 0.4%  
178 0% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0.1% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations