Opinion Poll by Kantar, 10–17 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.7–32.1% 29.3–32.5% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.1–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.6% 15.1–19.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.8% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.5–7.8% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 229 220–238 218–241 216–243 212–247
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 126 119–133 117–136 115–138 112–142
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 111 105–118 103–120 101–122 98–126
Alternative für Deutschland 94 74 69–80 67–82 66–83 63–86
Die Linke 69 60 54–65 53–66 52–68 50–71
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 56 51–61 50–63 49–64 47–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 47–57 46–58 45–60 43–62

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.2% 99.7%  
212 0.2% 99.5%  
213 0.2% 99.3%  
214 0.6% 99.0%  
215 0.9% 98%  
216 0.7% 98%  
217 1.4% 97%  
218 2% 95%  
219 2% 94%  
220 2% 92%  
221 3% 90%  
222 3% 87%  
223 3% 84%  
224 5% 81%  
225 6% 76%  
226 5% 70%  
227 5% 64%  
228 5% 60%  
229 5% 54% Median
230 5% 49%  
231 6% 44%  
232 6% 39%  
233 5% 32%  
234 4% 27%  
235 5% 23%  
236 5% 18%  
237 2% 13%  
238 2% 11%  
239 2% 9%  
240 1.5% 7%  
241 1.5% 6%  
242 1.3% 4%  
243 1.0% 3%  
244 0.4% 2%  
245 0.5% 1.4%  
246 0.3% 0.9%  
247 0.2% 0.7%  
248 0.2% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 99.7%  
113 0.4% 99.4%  
114 0.6% 99.1%  
115 1.3% 98.5%  
116 0.9% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 1.5% 94%  
119 4% 93%  
120 3% 88%  
121 4% 85%  
122 6% 81%  
123 5% 75%  
124 8% 70%  
125 4% 62%  
126 12% 58% Median
127 5% 47%  
128 8% 42%  
129 5% 34%  
130 6% 30%  
131 5% 23%  
132 3% 18%  
133 6% 15%  
134 2% 9%  
135 2% 8%  
136 1.2% 6%  
137 1.5% 4%  
138 1.0% 3%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.7% 1.3%  
141 0.2% 0.7%  
142 0.2% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.5% 99.3%  
100 0.7% 98.8%  
101 1.0% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 3% 93%  
105 3% 90%  
106 5% 87%  
107 5% 82%  
108 7% 77%  
109 7% 69%  
110 8% 63%  
111 7% 55% Median
112 8% 48%  
113 6% 40%  
114 6% 33%  
115 6% 27%  
116 6% 21%  
117 3% 15%  
118 3% 12%  
119 2% 9%  
120 2% 7%  
121 2% 5%  
122 0.9% 3%  
123 1.0% 2%  
124 0.5% 1.4%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.3% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.6% 99.3%  
65 1.1% 98.8%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 5% 91%  
70 6% 86%  
71 7% 79%  
72 9% 73%  
73 8% 64%  
74 7% 55% Median
75 8% 48%  
76 9% 40%  
77 7% 31%  
78 6% 24%  
79 6% 18%  
80 4% 12%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 1.4% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.5%  
86 0.4% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 1.1% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 5% 93%  
55 5% 88%  
56 5% 83%  
57 8% 78%  
58 8% 70%  
59 10% 62%  
60 10% 52% Median
61 11% 41%  
62 9% 31%  
63 6% 22%  
64 5% 15%  
65 3% 10%  
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.3% 3%  
69 0.9% 2% Last Result
70 0.5% 1.0%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
47 0.8% 99.5%  
48 0.9% 98.8%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 4% 93%  
52 7% 89%  
53 7% 81%  
54 10% 74%  
55 11% 64%  
56 8% 54% Median
57 11% 45%  
58 8% 34%  
59 8% 26%  
60 6% 18%  
61 3% 12%  
62 3% 9%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 1.0% 99.1%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 5% 93%  
48 6% 88%  
49 8% 82%  
50 8% 74%  
51 10% 66%  
52 10% 56% Median
53 11% 45%  
54 9% 35%  
55 7% 25%  
56 6% 19%  
57 5% 13%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 523 100% 515–532 512–534 510–536 506–539
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 464 100% 455–473 452–475 450–477 446–482
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 448 100% 439–457 437–460 435–462 430–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 412 100% 402–421 400–424 397–426 393–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 411 100% 403–421 399–424 397–426 393–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 397 100% 387–406 385–409 382–411 377–415
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 360 75% 350–369 348–372 345–374 341–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 337 0.9% 328–347 325–350 323–352 318–356
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 297 0% 288–307 285–309 283–312 279–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 290 0% 280–299 278–302 276–304 271–308
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 238 0% 229–247 226–249 224–251 220–256
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 171 0% 163–179 161–181 159–184 155–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 156–171 154–174 151–176 148–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.9%  
504 0.1% 99.8%  
505 0.1% 99.7%  
506 0.2% 99.6%  
507 0.3% 99.4%  
508 0.6% 99.1%  
509 0.5% 98.5%  
510 1.2% 98%  
511 0.8% 97%  
512 1.3% 96%  
513 2% 95%  
514 3% 93%  
515 2% 90%  
516 3% 88%  
517 5% 85%  
518 5% 81%  
519 4% 76%  
520 7% 72%  
521 5% 64%  
522 5% 59% Median
523 6% 54%  
524 7% 47%  
525 5% 41%  
526 6% 36%  
527 6% 30%  
528 3% 24%  
529 5% 21%  
530 3% 16%  
531 2% 13%  
532 4% 10%  
533 1.4% 7%  
534 2% 5%  
535 1.0% 4%  
536 0.9% 3%  
537 0.7% 2%  
538 0.5% 1.2%  
539 0.2% 0.7%  
540 0.2% 0.5%  
541 0.1% 0.3%  
542 0.1% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.7%  
446 0.3% 99.5%  
447 0.3% 99.3%  
448 0.7% 99.0%  
449 0.5% 98%  
450 0.8% 98%  
451 1.0% 97%  
452 2% 96%  
453 1.2% 94%  
454 2% 93%  
455 4% 92%  
456 3% 88%  
457 4% 85%  
458 4% 81%  
459 4% 77%  
460 4% 73%  
461 5% 69%  
462 6% 63%  
463 5% 58% Median
464 8% 52%  
465 5% 44%  
466 3% 39%  
467 6% 36%  
468 5% 30%  
469 3% 25%  
470 4% 22%  
471 3% 18%  
472 3% 15%  
473 2% 11%  
474 2% 9%  
475 2% 7%  
476 1.3% 5%  
477 1.1% 3%  
478 0.7% 2%  
479 0.5% 2%  
480 0.4% 1.1%  
481 0.2% 0.7%  
482 0.2% 0.5%  
483 0.1% 0.4%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0.1% 0.2%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
425 0% 100%  
426 0.1% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.3% 99.7%  
431 0.2% 99.3%  
432 0.4% 99.1%  
433 0.4% 98.8%  
434 0.5% 98%  
435 1.3% 98%  
436 1.0% 97%  
437 1.3% 96%  
438 2% 94%  
439 3% 92%  
440 2% 89%  
441 2% 87%  
442 2% 85%  
443 7% 83%  
444 3% 76%  
445 5% 73%  
446 4% 68%  
447 7% 64%  
448 7% 57% Median
449 4% 50%  
450 6% 46%  
451 4% 40%  
452 9% 36%  
453 3% 28%  
454 4% 24%  
455 3% 21%  
456 4% 18%  
457 4% 14%  
458 2% 10%  
459 2% 8%  
460 2% 7%  
461 2% 5%  
462 0.6% 3%  
463 0.7% 2%  
464 0.3% 2%  
465 0.6% 1.4%  
466 0.3% 0.8%  
467 0.1% 0.5%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.2% 99.7%  
393 0.2% 99.5%  
394 0.3% 99.4%  
395 0.5% 99.1%  
396 0.6% 98.6%  
397 0.6% 98%  
398 0.9% 97%  
399 1.2% 96%  
400 1.4% 95%  
401 1.4% 94%  
402 3% 93%  
403 3% 90%  
404 2% 86%  
405 4% 84%  
406 3% 80%  
407 4% 76%  
408 5% 72%  
409 5% 67%  
410 5% 62%  
411 5% 57% Median
412 6% 52%  
413 6% 46%  
414 5% 40%  
415 4% 35%  
416 5% 31%  
417 3% 25%  
418 4% 22%  
419 4% 18%  
420 2% 14% Last Result
421 3% 11%  
422 2% 9%  
423 2% 7%  
424 1.3% 5%  
425 1.0% 4%  
426 0.8% 3%  
427 0.8% 2%  
428 0.4% 1.3%  
429 0.3% 1.0%  
430 0.2% 0.7%  
431 0.2% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.3% 99.6%  
394 0.2% 99.3%  
395 0.3% 99.1%  
396 0.5% 98.8%  
397 0.8% 98%  
398 0.8% 97%  
399 2% 97%  
400 1.0% 95%  
401 2% 94%  
402 2% 92%  
403 3% 90%  
404 4% 87%  
405 4% 84%  
406 4% 79%  
407 3% 76%  
408 4% 72%  
409 5% 69%  
410 7% 63%  
411 7% 57% Median
412 4% 50%  
413 5% 46%  
414 4% 40%  
415 5% 36%  
416 6% 31%  
417 4% 25%  
418 4% 20%  
419 2% 17%  
420 2% 14%  
421 2% 12%  
422 2% 10%  
423 2% 8%  
424 2% 6%  
425 1.0% 4%  
426 0.8% 3%  
427 0.4% 2%  
428 0.5% 2%  
429 0.5% 1.1%  
430 0.1% 0.6%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0.1% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.2% 99.7%  
378 0.1% 99.4%  
379 0.3% 99.3%  
380 0.5% 99.0%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 1.0% 98%  
383 0.8% 97%  
384 1.1% 96%  
385 2% 95%  
386 2% 94%  
387 2% 91%  
388 2% 90%  
389 5% 87%  
390 2% 83%  
391 4% 80%  
392 6% 76%  
393 3% 70%  
394 6% 67%  
395 5% 61%  
396 5% 56% Median
397 6% 52%  
398 7% 46%  
399 5% 40% Last Result
400 4% 34%  
401 5% 30%  
402 3% 25%  
403 4% 22%  
404 4% 17%  
405 3% 14%  
406 3% 11%  
407 2% 9%  
408 1.1% 7%  
409 2% 5%  
410 1.1% 4%  
411 0.8% 3%  
412 0.6% 2%  
413 0.4% 1.4%  
414 0.3% 1.0%  
415 0.2% 0.7%  
416 0.2% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0.1% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.3% 99.3%  
343 0.5% 99.0%  
344 0.8% 98.5%  
345 0.6% 98%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 1.0% 96%  
348 2% 95%  
349 3% 93%  
350 2% 91%  
351 3% 89%  
352 2% 86%  
353 4% 84%  
354 4% 79%  
355 4% 75% Majority
356 4% 71%  
357 6% 67%  
358 4% 61%  
359 6% 57% Median
360 7% 51%  
361 4% 44%  
362 4% 40%  
363 6% 36%  
364 5% 30%  
365 4% 25%  
366 4% 21%  
367 3% 18%  
368 3% 14%  
369 3% 11%  
370 1.5% 9%  
371 2% 7%  
372 1.5% 5%  
373 1.1% 4%  
374 0.9% 3%  
375 0.4% 2%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.4% 1.2%  
378 0.2% 0.7%  
379 0.2% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.2% 99.8%  
318 0.2% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.5%  
320 0.3% 99.2%  
321 0.5% 99.0%  
322 0.7% 98%  
323 0.9% 98%  
324 0.9% 97%  
325 1.2% 96%  
326 2% 95% Last Result
327 2% 93%  
328 2% 91%  
329 3% 89%  
330 2% 85%  
331 4% 83%  
332 6% 79%  
333 3% 74%  
334 5% 70%  
335 6% 66%  
336 5% 60%  
337 5% 55% Median
338 6% 50%  
339 4% 44%  
340 6% 40%  
341 6% 34%  
342 4% 28%  
343 4% 25%  
344 3% 20%  
345 4% 17%  
346 2% 13%  
347 2% 11%  
348 2% 8%  
349 2% 7%  
350 1.5% 5%  
351 1.1% 4%  
352 0.8% 3%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.5% 1.4%  
355 0.3% 0.9% Majority
356 0.2% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.2% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.7%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0.4% 99.0%  
282 0.8% 98.7%  
283 0.8% 98%  
284 1.0% 97%  
285 1.3% 96%  
286 2% 95%  
287 2% 93%  
288 3% 91%  
289 2% 89% Last Result
290 4% 86%  
291 4% 82%  
292 3% 78%  
293 5% 75%  
294 4% 69%  
295 5% 65%  
296 6% 60%  
297 6% 54% Median
298 5% 48%  
299 5% 43%  
300 5% 38%  
301 5% 33%  
302 4% 28%  
303 3% 24%  
304 4% 20%  
305 2% 16%  
306 3% 14%  
307 3% 10%  
308 1.4% 7%  
309 1.4% 6%  
310 1.2% 5%  
311 0.9% 4%  
312 0.6% 3%  
313 0.6% 2%  
314 0.5% 1.4%  
315 0.3% 0.9%  
316 0.2% 0.6%  
317 0.2% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.2% 99.7%  
272 0.3% 99.4%  
273 0.5% 99.2%  
274 0.3% 98.7%  
275 0.7% 98%  
276 0.7% 98%  
277 0.9% 97%  
278 1.3% 96%  
279 2% 95%  
280 3% 93%  
281 3% 90%  
282 4% 87%  
283 3% 83%  
284 4% 80%  
285 3% 76%  
286 4% 73%  
287 5% 70%  
288 7% 65%  
289 8% 58% Median
290 8% 50%  
291 5% 42%  
292 4% 38%  
293 3% 33%  
294 3% 31%  
295 3% 27%  
296 5% 24%  
297 4% 19%  
298 3% 15%  
299 3% 12%  
300 2% 8% Last Result
301 1.3% 6%  
302 0.8% 5%  
303 1.0% 4%  
304 0.9% 3%  
305 0.7% 2%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0.4% 1.2%  
308 0.3% 0.8%  
309 0.2% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.2% 99.8%  
220 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
221 0.3% 99.4%  
222 0.4% 99.0%  
223 0.6% 98.7%  
224 1.0% 98%  
225 0.9% 97%  
226 1.5% 96%  
227 1.3% 95%  
228 2% 93%  
229 3% 91%  
230 3% 88%  
231 3% 85%  
232 5% 82%  
233 4% 77%  
234 5% 73%  
235 5% 67%  
236 6% 62%  
237 5% 56% Median
238 6% 51%  
239 5% 45%  
240 6% 40%  
241 5% 34%  
242 5% 29%  
243 4% 24%  
244 4% 21%  
245 4% 16%  
246 2% 13%  
247 2% 10%  
248 2% 8%  
249 1.4% 6%  
250 1.4% 5%  
251 1.1% 4%  
252 0.6% 2%  
253 0.5% 2%  
254 0.5% 1.4%  
255 0.3% 0.9%  
256 0.2% 0.6%  
257 0.2% 0.4%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0.1% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.3% 99.6%  
156 0.3% 99.4%  
157 0.5% 99.0%  
158 1.0% 98.5%  
159 1.0% 98%  
160 1.1% 97%  
161 2% 95%  
162 3% 94%  
163 3% 90%  
164 3% 88%  
165 6% 84%  
166 4% 79%  
167 4% 75%  
168 6% 70%  
169 7% 65%  
170 4% 57%  
171 5% 53% Median
172 7% 48%  
173 7% 40%  
174 4% 33%  
175 6% 29%  
176 5% 23%  
177 2% 17%  
178 4% 15%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 2% 6%  
182 1.2% 5%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.7% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.3% 99.5%  
149 0.5% 99.2%  
150 0.6% 98.8%  
151 0.9% 98%  
152 0.8% 97%  
153 1.1% 96%  
154 2% 95%  
155 2% 94%  
156 4% 92%  
157 5% 88%  
158 6% 83%  
159 6% 77%  
160 5% 71%  
161 5% 66%  
162 5% 61%  
163 5% 56% Median
164 6% 51%  
165 8% 45%  
166 8% 37%  
167 4% 29%  
168 6% 25%  
169 3% 19%  
170 4% 16%  
171 3% 12%  
172 2% 10%  
173 2% 8%  
174 1.2% 5%  
175 1.4% 4%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.7% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.3%  
179 0.3% 0.9%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations