Opinion Poll by YouGov, 18–22 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.6–31.6% 28.2–32.0% 27.9–32.3% 27.2–33.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–18.9% 14.7–19.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.6% 9.1–13.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.8–8.2% 5.4–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 231 217–246 215–250 212–255 206–259
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 131 121–142 118–145 116–148 112–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 115 106–126 103–128 102–131 98–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 77–94 75–96 73–98 70–103
Die Linke 69 69 62–77 61–80 59–81 56–85
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 42–68
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 38 0–43 0–45 0–46 0–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.7%  
206 0.1% 99.6%  
207 0.2% 99.5%  
208 0.2% 99.3%  
209 0.2% 99.2%  
210 0.6% 98.9%  
211 0.8% 98%  
212 1.1% 98%  
213 0.8% 97%  
214 0.8% 96%  
215 2% 95%  
216 2% 93%  
217 2% 91%  
218 1.2% 89%  
219 1.0% 88%  
220 2% 87%  
221 2% 85%  
222 2% 83%  
223 2% 81%  
224 2% 79%  
225 6% 77%  
226 6% 72%  
227 4% 66%  
228 4% 62%  
229 3% 58%  
230 4% 55%  
231 4% 51% Median
232 3% 47%  
233 2% 44%  
234 3% 42%  
235 2% 39%  
236 3% 37%  
237 2% 34%  
238 2% 33%  
239 2% 31%  
240 2% 29%  
241 3% 27%  
242 4% 24%  
243 3% 20%  
244 4% 16%  
245 2% 12%  
246 2% 10%  
247 1.5% 8%  
248 0.9% 7%  
249 0.5% 6%  
250 0.4% 5%  
251 0.4% 5%  
252 0.4% 4%  
253 0.5% 4%  
254 0.8% 4%  
255 0.9% 3%  
256 0.4% 2%  
257 0.5% 2%  
258 0.4% 1.0%  
259 0.3% 0.7%  
260 0.2% 0.4%  
261 0.1% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.5%  
113 0.3% 99.3%  
114 0.5% 99.0%  
115 0.6% 98.5%  
116 0.7% 98%  
117 1.4% 97%  
118 1.2% 96%  
119 1.4% 95%  
120 2% 93%  
121 2% 91%  
122 3% 89%  
123 3% 86%  
124 3% 83%  
125 5% 80%  
126 4% 76%  
127 5% 72%  
128 5% 66%  
129 5% 62%  
130 5% 57%  
131 5% 52% Median
132 4% 47%  
133 5% 43%  
134 4% 38%  
135 4% 34%  
136 3% 30%  
137 4% 27%  
138 5% 23%  
139 3% 18%  
140 2% 15%  
141 2% 13%  
142 2% 11%  
143 1.2% 9%  
144 2% 8%  
145 2% 6%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 0.5% 3%  
148 0.7% 3%  
149 0.6% 2%  
150 0.6% 1.5%  
151 0.2% 0.9%  
152 0.2% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.4% 99.6%  
99 0.6% 99.2%  
100 0.4% 98.7%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 1.2% 98%  
103 2% 96%  
104 1.1% 95%  
105 2% 94%  
106 3% 92%  
107 2% 89%  
108 3% 87%  
109 4% 84%  
110 4% 80%  
111 4% 75%  
112 4% 72%  
113 6% 67%  
114 8% 61%  
115 6% 53% Median
116 4% 48%  
117 5% 44%  
118 7% 39%  
119 4% 32%  
120 2% 28%  
121 4% 26%  
122 3% 22%  
123 3% 19%  
124 2% 15%  
125 2% 13%  
126 3% 11%  
127 2% 8%  
128 1.2% 6%  
129 0.7% 5%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.7% 3%  
132 0.3% 2%  
133 0.5% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.1%  
135 0.3% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.3% 99.2%  
72 1.1% 98.9%  
73 0.7% 98%  
74 1.5% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 2% 93%  
77 4% 91%  
78 3% 88%  
79 4% 85%  
80 6% 81%  
81 5% 75%  
82 7% 70%  
83 3% 63%  
84 6% 60%  
85 7% 54% Median
86 4% 46%  
87 8% 42%  
88 3% 34%  
89 6% 30%  
90 5% 25%  
91 3% 20%  
92 5% 18%  
93 2% 12%  
94 2% 11% Last Result
95 3% 8%  
96 0.5% 5%  
97 2% 5%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 0.4% 2%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.1% 0.9%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.3%  
58 0.7% 98.5%  
59 1.1% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 2% 95%  
62 3% 93%  
63 4% 90%  
64 4% 86%  
65 5% 82%  
66 6% 77%  
67 7% 70%  
68 7% 63%  
69 7% 57% Last Result, Median
70 8% 50%  
71 7% 42%  
72 6% 36%  
73 6% 30%  
74 5% 24%  
75 5% 19%  
76 3% 15%  
77 3% 11%  
78 2% 9%  
79 2% 7%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.0% 4%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.5%  
43 0.9% 99.1%  
44 1.1% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95% Last Result
47 3% 92%  
48 4% 89%  
49 6% 85%  
50 7% 79%  
51 7% 72%  
52 7% 65%  
53 9% 58% Median
54 7% 49%  
55 8% 42%  
56 6% 34%  
57 6% 28%  
58 5% 23%  
59 6% 18%  
60 3% 12%  
61 3% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 5%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.3%  
67 0.4% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0% 53%  
7 0% 53%  
8 0% 53%  
9 0% 53%  
10 0% 53%  
11 0% 53%  
12 0% 53%  
13 0% 53%  
14 0% 53%  
15 0% 53%  
16 0% 53%  
17 0% 53%  
18 0% 53%  
19 0% 53%  
20 0% 53%  
21 0% 53%  
22 0% 53%  
23 0% 53%  
24 0% 53%  
25 0% 53%  
26 0% 53%  
27 0% 53%  
28 0% 53%  
29 0% 53%  
30 0% 53%  
31 0% 53%  
32 0% 53%  
33 0% 53%  
34 0% 53%  
35 0% 53%  
36 0% 53%  
37 0.1% 53%  
38 8% 53% Median
39 8% 44%  
40 9% 36%  
41 7% 27%  
42 5% 20%  
43 5% 15%  
44 3% 9%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 529 100% 511–556 507–559 504–561 499–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 439 100% 423–454 419–458 416–460 410–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 423 100% 407–439 402–443 399–446 392–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 416 100% 398–438 393–441 391–445 384–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 400 100% 383–421 378–426 375–428 370–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 393 99.9% 375–409 371–413 367–416 361–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 370 86% 352–390 349–394 345–397 340–404
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0.1% 300–334 296–338 293–342 288–348
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 308 0% 287–326 284–330 280–333 274–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 270 0% 247–289 244–292 241–295 235–301
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 233–262 229–266 226–270 220–275
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 185 0% 173–199 171–201 167–204 162–210
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 143 0% 113–159 110–163 109–165 104–170

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0% 99.9%  
496 0.1% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.8%  
498 0.1% 99.7%  
499 0.1% 99.5%  
500 0.2% 99.4%  
501 0.3% 99.3%  
502 0.5% 99.0%  
503 0.4% 98%  
504 0.7% 98%  
505 0.7% 97%  
506 0.5% 97%  
507 1.3% 96%  
508 2% 95%  
509 1.2% 93%  
510 1.3% 92%  
511 2% 91%  
512 3% 89%  
513 1.3% 86%  
514 4% 85%  
515 3% 81%  
516 2% 78%  
517 2% 76%  
518 4% 74%  
519 2% 70%  
520 3% 68%  
521 3% 65%  
522 1.5% 62%  
523 3% 61%  
524 1.3% 58%  
525 2% 57%  
526 2% 54%  
527 1.1% 53%  
528 1.2% 52%  
529 0.6% 50%  
530 1.0% 50% Median
531 0.7% 49%  
532 0.4% 48%  
533 0.5% 48%  
534 0.6% 47%  
535 0.7% 47%  
536 0.7% 46%  
537 0.7% 45%  
538 0.7% 45%  
539 1.3% 44%  
540 2% 42%  
541 2% 40%  
542 1.3% 39%  
543 1.3% 38%  
544 0.9% 36%  
545 1.2% 36%  
546 2% 34%  
547 4% 32%  
548 2% 28%  
549 3% 26%  
550 2% 23%  
551 3% 21%  
552 2% 18%  
553 2% 16%  
554 2% 15%  
555 2% 13%  
556 1.4% 11%  
557 2% 10%  
558 2% 8%  
559 2% 6%  
560 1.1% 4%  
561 0.7% 3%  
562 0.5% 2%  
563 0.4% 2%  
564 0.2% 1.4%  
565 0.4% 1.3%  
566 0.2% 0.9%  
567 0.2% 0.7%  
568 0.2% 0.5%  
569 0.1% 0.3%  
570 0.1% 0.2%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0% 99.6%  
410 0.2% 99.5%  
411 0.4% 99.3%  
412 0.2% 98.9%  
413 0.4% 98.7%  
414 0.3% 98%  
415 0.3% 98%  
416 0.9% 98%  
417 1.0% 97%  
418 0.6% 96%  
419 1.1% 95%  
420 0.8% 94%  
421 1.2% 93%  
422 2% 92%  
423 2% 90%  
424 0.8% 88%  
425 2% 87%  
426 2% 85%  
427 1.4% 83%  
428 2% 81%  
429 2% 79%  
430 2% 77%  
431 3% 75%  
432 5% 73%  
433 2% 68%  
434 3% 66%  
435 3% 63%  
436 3% 60%  
437 2% 57%  
438 3% 55%  
439 3% 52%  
440 4% 50%  
441 4% 45%  
442 2% 41%  
443 2% 39%  
444 4% 37%  
445 4% 33%  
446 3% 29%  
447 1.5% 26%  
448 2% 24%  
449 4% 23%  
450 3% 19%  
451 2% 16%  
452 1.1% 13%  
453 1.3% 12% Median
454 2% 11%  
455 2% 9%  
456 1.2% 7%  
457 0.5% 6%  
458 1.0% 5%  
459 1.1% 4%  
460 0.8% 3%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.3% 2%  
463 0.3% 2%  
464 0.4% 1.3%  
465 0.4% 0.9%  
466 0.1% 0.5%  
467 0.1% 0.4%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.8%  
390 0% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.2% 99.6%  
393 0.1% 99.5%  
394 0.1% 99.3%  
395 0.2% 99.2%  
396 0.3% 99.0%  
397 0.3% 98.7%  
398 0.6% 98%  
399 0.6% 98%  
400 0.6% 97%  
401 0.5% 97%  
402 1.3% 96%  
403 0.6% 95%  
404 2% 94%  
405 0.8% 92%  
406 1.2% 91%  
407 1.2% 90%  
408 2% 89%  
409 2% 87%  
410 2% 85%  
411 3% 83%  
412 1.1% 80%  
413 2% 79%  
414 3% 77%  
415 2% 74%  
416 4% 72%  
417 2% 69%  
418 3% 67%  
419 2% 64%  
420 4% 62%  
421 2% 58%  
422 3% 55%  
423 2% 52%  
424 2% 50%  
425 3% 48%  
426 4% 45%  
427 3% 41%  
428 3% 38%  
429 2% 35%  
430 2% 32%  
431 4% 30%  
432 3% 26%  
433 2% 23%  
434 3% 21%  
435 2% 18%  
436 2% 17%  
437 3% 15% Median
438 2% 12%  
439 2% 10%  
440 2% 9%  
441 1.0% 7%  
442 0.8% 6%  
443 1.0% 5%  
444 0.7% 4%  
445 0.7% 3%  
446 0.6% 3%  
447 0.4% 2%  
448 0.5% 2%  
449 0.3% 1.1%  
450 0.1% 0.7%  
451 0.2% 0.6%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.2% 99.6%  
385 0.1% 99.5%  
386 0.3% 99.3%  
387 0.3% 99.0%  
388 0.3% 98.8%  
389 0.3% 98%  
390 0.4% 98%  
391 0.9% 98%  
392 1.1% 97%  
393 1.1% 96%  
394 0.9% 95%  
395 0.6% 94%  
396 1.0% 93%  
397 2% 92%  
398 2% 90%  
399 2% 88%  
400 3% 86%  
401 2% 83%  
402 1.4% 81%  
403 3% 80%  
404 2% 77%  
405 5% 76%  
406 3% 70%  
407 2% 68%  
408 1.0% 66%  
409 1.4% 65%  
410 3% 63%  
411 3% 61%  
412 2% 57%  
413 2% 55%  
414 2% 53%  
415 0.7% 51% Median
416 1.2% 51%  
417 2% 49%  
418 1.3% 47%  
419 2% 46%  
420 1.2% 44%  
421 2% 42%  
422 2% 41%  
423 2% 39%  
424 1.0% 37%  
425 2% 36%  
426 3% 33%  
427 1.3% 31%  
428 2% 29%  
429 2% 28%  
430 1.0% 26%  
431 2% 25%  
432 5% 22%  
433 2% 18%  
434 2% 16%  
435 1.1% 14%  
436 1.0% 13%  
437 1.5% 12%  
438 2% 11%  
439 0.7% 8%  
440 1.3% 8%  
441 2% 6%  
442 0.5% 5%  
443 0.9% 4%  
444 0.8% 3%  
445 0.2% 3%  
446 0.7% 2%  
447 0.4% 2%  
448 0.3% 1.2%  
449 0.2% 0.9%  
450 0.1% 0.7%  
451 0% 0.5%  
452 0.2% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0.1% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.1% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.5%  
371 0.4% 99.3%  
372 0.2% 99.0%  
373 0.2% 98.7%  
374 0.6% 98%  
375 0.9% 98%  
376 0.6% 97%  
377 0.8% 96%  
378 1.0% 96%  
379 0.9% 95%  
380 1.0% 94%  
381 1.4% 93%  
382 1.2% 91%  
383 3% 90%  
384 0.8% 88%  
385 3% 87%  
386 2% 83%  
387 2% 81%  
388 2% 79%  
389 3% 77%  
390 2% 74%  
391 2% 72%  
392 2% 70%  
393 5% 68%  
394 2% 63%  
395 1.5% 61%  
396 2% 60%  
397 3% 58%  
398 2% 55%  
399 2% 53% Last Result, Median
400 1.5% 51%  
401 2% 50%  
402 2% 48%  
403 1.4% 46%  
404 3% 44%  
405 1.1% 42%  
406 1.4% 41%  
407 2% 39%  
408 2% 38%  
409 2% 35%  
410 2% 33%  
411 3% 31%  
412 1.0% 28%  
413 2% 27%  
414 2% 25%  
415 1.3% 23%  
416 3% 22%  
417 1.4% 18%  
418 2% 17%  
419 1.2% 15%  
420 3% 14%  
421 1.2% 11%  
422 2% 10%  
423 0.8% 8%  
424 0.7% 7%  
425 1.1% 6%  
426 1.2% 5%  
427 0.9% 4%  
428 0.9% 3%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.4% 2%  
431 0.2% 2%  
432 0.6% 1.5%  
433 0.2% 0.9%  
434 0.2% 0.7%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0.1% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.1% 99.5%  
363 0.1% 99.3%  
364 0.4% 99.2%  
365 0.4% 98.8%  
366 0.2% 98%  
367 0.7% 98%  
368 0.8% 97%  
369 0.8% 97%  
370 0.7% 96%  
371 1.0% 95%  
372 1.3% 94%  
373 0.9% 93%  
374 2% 92%  
375 0.7% 90%  
376 1.1% 89%  
377 1.4% 88%  
378 2% 87%  
379 2% 85%  
380 2% 83%  
381 3% 81%  
382 3% 78%  
383 2% 76%  
384 1.4% 74%  
385 2% 72%  
386 4% 70%  
387 2% 66%  
388 3% 64%  
389 3% 61%  
390 3% 59%  
391 2% 56%  
392 3% 54%  
393 3% 51%  
394 3% 48%  
395 2% 45%  
396 3% 42%  
397 4% 39%  
398 2% 36%  
399 3% 34%  
400 2% 31%  
401 2% 29%  
402 2% 27%  
403 2% 25%  
404 3% 23%  
405 2% 20%  
406 3% 18%  
407 2% 15% Median
408 2% 13%  
409 2% 11%  
410 2% 9%  
411 1.3% 8%  
412 1.1% 6%  
413 0.8% 5%  
414 0.8% 4%  
415 0.6% 4%  
416 0.6% 3%  
417 0.7% 2%  
418 0.5% 2%  
419 0.3% 1.2%  
420 0.2% 0.9% Last Result
421 0.2% 0.7%  
422 0.1% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
341 0.2% 99.4%  
342 0.2% 99.1%  
343 0.4% 98.9%  
344 0.5% 98%  
345 0.6% 98%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 0.7% 97%  
348 0.8% 96%  
349 0.8% 95%  
350 1.5% 94%  
351 1.2% 93%  
352 2% 92%  
353 2% 90%  
354 2% 88%  
355 2% 86% Majority
356 1.2% 84%  
357 3% 82%  
358 3% 79%  
359 3% 76%  
360 2% 73%  
361 3% 71%  
362 2% 69%  
363 2% 67%  
364 2% 65%  
365 2% 63%  
366 2% 60%  
367 3% 58%  
368 2% 55%  
369 2% 53% Median
370 2% 51%  
371 2% 49%  
372 3% 47%  
373 2% 44%  
374 3% 43%  
375 1.2% 40%  
376 2% 39%  
377 2% 37%  
378 2% 35%  
379 2% 34%  
380 2% 31%  
381 3% 29%  
382 2% 26%  
383 2% 24%  
384 1.2% 22%  
385 2% 21%  
386 3% 19%  
387 2% 16%  
388 2% 15%  
389 2% 12%  
390 1.4% 10%  
391 1.0% 9%  
392 1.4% 8%  
393 0.9% 7%  
394 1.4% 6%  
395 0.7% 4%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.6% 3%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.3% 2%  
401 0.3% 1.4%  
402 0.3% 1.1%  
403 0.2% 0.8%  
404 0.2% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
290 0.3% 99.1%  
291 0.5% 98.8%  
292 0.7% 98%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 0.6% 97%  
295 0.8% 96%  
296 0.8% 96%  
297 1.1% 95%  
298 1.3% 94%  
299 2% 92%  
300 2% 91%  
301 2% 89%  
302 2% 87%  
303 3% 85%  
304 2% 82%  
305 3% 80%  
306 2% 77%  
307 2% 75%  
308 2% 73%  
309 2% 71%  
310 3% 69%  
311 2% 66%  
312 4% 64%  
313 3% 61%  
314 2% 58%  
315 3% 55% Median
316 3% 52%  
317 3% 49%  
318 2% 46%  
319 3% 44%  
320 3% 41%  
321 3% 39%  
322 2% 36%  
323 4% 34%  
324 2% 30%  
325 1.4% 28%  
326 2% 26%  
327 3% 24%  
328 3% 22%  
329 2% 19%  
330 2% 17%  
331 2% 15%  
332 1.4% 13%  
333 1.1% 12%  
334 0.7% 11%  
335 2% 10%  
336 0.9% 8%  
337 1.3% 7%  
338 1.0% 6%  
339 0.7% 5%  
340 0.8% 4%  
341 0.8% 3%  
342 0.7% 3%  
343 0.2% 2%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.4% 1.2%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.2% 99.4%  
276 0.5% 99.2%  
277 0.3% 98.7%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 0.6% 97%  
282 0.6% 97%  
283 0.5% 96%  
284 1.3% 95%  
285 2% 94%  
286 1.1% 92%  
287 1.4% 91%  
288 1.0% 89%  
289 2% 88%  
290 2% 87%  
291 1.4% 85%  
292 2% 84%  
293 3% 82%  
294 3% 79%  
295 2% 76%  
296 0.9% 73%  
297 2% 72%  
298 1.4% 71%  
299 2% 69%  
300 1.2% 67%  
301 2% 66%  
302 5% 64%  
303 2% 59%  
304 1.3% 57%  
305 1.3% 56%  
306 2% 54%  
307 1.2% 53%  
308 2% 52%  
309 2% 50%  
310 2% 48%  
311 3% 46%  
312 2% 43%  
313 2% 40%  
314 1.3% 39%  
315 3% 37%  
316 3% 35%  
317 2% 32%  
318 2% 30%  
319 5% 28%  
320 3% 23%  
321 3% 21%  
322 1.4% 18% Median
323 2% 17%  
324 2% 15%  
325 2% 13%  
326 1.4% 11% Last Result
327 2% 10%  
328 1.1% 8%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 0.8% 5%  
331 0.8% 5%  
332 0.8% 4%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.3% 1.5%  
337 0.4% 1.2%  
338 0.3% 0.8%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.3% 99.5%  
236 0.2% 99.3%  
237 0.2% 99.0%  
238 0.4% 98.8%  
239 0.4% 98%  
240 0.4% 98%  
241 0.6% 98%  
242 0.5% 97%  
243 0.9% 96%  
244 2% 96%  
245 1.2% 93%  
246 2% 92%  
247 1.1% 91%  
248 1.4% 89%  
249 2% 88%  
250 1.4% 86%  
251 3% 85%  
252 2% 82%  
253 2% 81%  
254 1.3% 79%  
255 3% 77%  
256 3% 75%  
257 2% 72%  
258 3% 70%  
259 2% 68%  
260 1.2% 66%  
261 1.4% 65%  
262 2% 63%  
263 1.2% 61%  
264 2% 60%  
265 2% 59%  
266 2% 57%  
267 1.3% 55%  
268 2% 54%  
269 1.3% 52%  
270 1.5% 51%  
271 2% 49%  
272 1.1% 48%  
273 2% 47%  
274 2% 44%  
275 1.1% 42%  
276 3% 41%  
277 3% 38%  
278 3% 35%  
279 2% 32%  
280 2% 30%  
281 3% 29%  
282 2% 26%  
283 2% 23%  
284 3% 21% Median
285 3% 18%  
286 2% 15%  
287 2% 13%  
288 1.2% 11%  
289 1.3% 10%  
290 1.4% 9%  
291 2% 7%  
292 1.0% 6%  
293 1.0% 5%  
294 0.7% 4%  
295 0.6% 3%  
296 0.3% 2%  
297 0.5% 2%  
298 0.4% 2%  
299 0.3% 1.2%  
300 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
301 0.2% 0.6%  
302 0.2% 0.5%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
221 0.3% 99.5%  
222 0.2% 99.2%  
223 0.3% 99.0%  
224 0.3% 98.7%  
225 0.8% 98%  
226 0.9% 98%  
227 0.7% 97%  
228 0.8% 96%  
229 1.0% 95%  
230 1.0% 94%  
231 1.1% 93%  
232 2% 92%  
233 2% 90%  
234 2% 88%  
235 2% 86%  
236 2% 84%  
237 3% 82%  
238 3% 79%  
239 2% 76%  
240 4% 73%  
241 2% 70%  
242 2% 67%  
243 3% 65%  
244 5% 62%  
245 4% 56%  
246 4% 53% Median
247 3% 48%  
248 2% 45%  
249 3% 43%  
250 3% 40%  
251 4% 38%  
252 3% 34%  
253 2% 31%  
254 2% 29%  
255 3% 27%  
256 3% 24%  
257 2% 21%  
258 3% 19%  
259 2% 16%  
260 1.2% 14%  
261 1.4% 13%  
262 2% 12%  
263 1.1% 10%  
264 1.4% 8%  
265 1.2% 7%  
266 1.1% 6%  
267 0.8% 5%  
268 0.8% 4%  
269 0.4% 3%  
270 0.6% 3%  
271 0.7% 2%  
272 0.2% 1.3%  
273 0.3% 1.1%  
274 0.2% 0.8%  
275 0.2% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.5%  
164 0.3% 99.2%  
165 0.6% 98.9%  
166 0.6% 98%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 0.6% 97%  
169 0.7% 96%  
170 0.5% 96%  
171 1.5% 95%  
172 2% 94%  
173 3% 91%  
174 3% 89%  
175 3% 86%  
176 2% 83%  
177 3% 80%  
178 2% 77%  
179 3% 75%  
180 3% 73%  
181 4% 70%  
182 4% 66%  
183 5% 62%  
184 6% 57% Median
185 4% 51%  
186 3% 47%  
187 3% 44%  
188 4% 40%  
189 3% 37%  
190 5% 33%  
191 4% 29%  
192 4% 25%  
193 3% 21%  
194 2% 18%  
195 1.4% 17%  
196 2% 15%  
197 2% 14%  
198 2% 12%  
199 1.3% 10%  
200 2% 9%  
201 2% 7%  
202 1.3% 5%  
203 0.9% 4%  
204 0.4% 3%  
205 0.3% 2%  
206 0.3% 2%  
207 0.3% 2%  
208 0.4% 1.3%  
209 0.3% 0.9%  
210 0.2% 0.6%  
211 0.2% 0.5%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.1% 99.6%  
105 0.3% 99.4%  
106 0.5% 99.1%  
107 0.5% 98.6%  
108 0.4% 98%  
109 2% 98%  
110 1.4% 96%  
111 0.8% 95%  
112 0.9% 94%  
113 3% 93%  
114 3% 90%  
115 2% 87%  
116 1.3% 85%  
117 3% 83%  
118 3% 81%  
119 3% 78%  
120 1.4% 75%  
121 3% 74%  
122 2% 70%  
123 3% 69%  
124 2% 66%  
125 2% 64%  
126 3% 63%  
127 1.3% 60%  
128 1.0% 58%  
129 0.5% 57%  
130 2% 57%  
131 0.6% 55%  
132 0.2% 55%  
133 0.5% 54%  
134 0.4% 54%  
135 0.3% 53%  
136 0.2% 53%  
137 0.2% 53%  
138 0.4% 53%  
139 0.3% 52%  
140 0.4% 52%  
141 0.9% 52%  
142 0.6% 51%  
143 1.0% 50%  
144 1.2% 49%  
145 0.8% 48%  
146 2% 47%  
147 2% 45%  
148 3% 44%  
149 2% 41%  
150 2% 39%  
151 3% 37%  
152 4% 34%  
153 3% 30% Median
154 4% 27%  
155 2% 22%  
156 3% 20%  
157 2% 17%  
158 3% 14%  
159 2% 12%  
160 2% 10%  
161 1.4% 8%  
162 2% 7%  
163 1.0% 5%  
164 1.1% 4%  
165 0.8% 3%  
166 0.3% 2%  
167 0.5% 2%  
168 0.3% 1.3%  
169 0.4% 1.0%  
170 0.2% 0.6%  
171 0.1% 0.5%  
172 0.1% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations