Opinion Poll by Kantar, 18–24 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.6–31.6% 28.2–32.0% 27.8–32.4% 27.1–33.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 225 211–239 208–239 206–242 202–249
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 125–144 122–146 121–150 116–155
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 118 111–129 108–132 106–134 103–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 68–82 66–85 64–87 61–92
Die Linke 69 59 53–67 51–70 51–72 47–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 46–59 45–61 43–62 41–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–51 38–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.2% 99.5%  
204 0.3% 99.3%  
205 0.9% 99.0%  
206 1.3% 98%  
207 0.5% 97%  
208 3% 96%  
209 1.1% 94%  
210 2% 93%  
211 0.8% 90%  
212 0.7% 89%  
213 1.0% 89%  
214 1.1% 88%  
215 2% 86%  
216 2% 85%  
217 2% 83%  
218 3% 81%  
219 3% 78%  
220 2% 75%  
221 5% 73%  
222 5% 68%  
223 4% 62%  
224 4% 58%  
225 12% 54% Median
226 5% 43%  
227 3% 38%  
228 5% 35%  
229 2% 30%  
230 4% 28%  
231 3% 24%  
232 0.6% 21%  
233 1.0% 21%  
234 1.4% 20%  
235 2% 18%  
236 2% 16%  
237 2% 15%  
238 2% 12%  
239 5% 10%  
240 1.3% 5%  
241 0.7% 3%  
242 0.5% 3%  
243 0.9% 2%  
244 0.5% 1.3%  
245 0.1% 0.8%  
246 0.1% 0.7%  
247 0.1% 0.6%  
248 0% 0.5%  
249 0% 0.5%  
250 0.1% 0.5%  
251 0% 0.4%  
252 0% 0.3%  
253 0% 0.3%  
254 0% 0.3%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0.1% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0.1% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.3% 99.7%  
117 0.4% 99.4%  
118 0.4% 99.0%  
119 0.5% 98.6%  
120 0.5% 98%  
121 3% 98%  
122 1.3% 95%  
123 1.0% 94%  
124 2% 93%  
125 2% 91%  
126 3% 89%  
127 4% 86%  
128 5% 82%  
129 5% 77%  
130 2% 72%  
131 3% 70%  
132 6% 67%  
133 7% 61%  
134 8% 54% Median
135 2% 46%  
136 3% 44%  
137 6% 41%  
138 3% 36%  
139 6% 33%  
140 2% 27%  
141 5% 24%  
142 5% 20%  
143 2% 15%  
144 6% 14%  
145 1.2% 8%  
146 2% 6%  
147 0.4% 5%  
148 0.7% 4%  
149 0.7% 4%  
150 1.4% 3%  
151 0.3% 1.4%  
152 0.1% 1.1%  
153 0.2% 1.0%  
154 0.2% 0.8%  
155 0.2% 0.6%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.6%  
104 0.5% 99.3%  
105 1.2% 98.8%  
106 0.6% 98%  
107 0.8% 97%  
108 2% 96%  
109 1.2% 94%  
110 2% 93%  
111 4% 91%  
112 7% 87%  
113 5% 79%  
114 7% 75%  
115 5% 68%  
116 3% 63%  
117 4% 60%  
118 10% 57% Median
119 7% 46%  
120 4% 40%  
121 3% 36%  
122 8% 33%  
123 2% 25%  
124 2% 23%  
125 3% 21%  
126 3% 17%  
127 2% 14%  
128 1.2% 12%  
129 2% 11%  
130 0.6% 9%  
131 1.0% 9%  
132 3% 8%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.4% 3%  
135 0.4% 2%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.7% 2%  
138 0.1% 0.9%  
139 0.2% 0.8%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.3% 99.0%  
63 0.4% 98.7%  
64 0.9% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 94%  
68 4% 90%  
69 7% 87%  
70 7% 80%  
71 7% 73%  
72 5% 66%  
73 10% 62%  
74 2% 52%  
75 5% 50% Median
76 5% 45%  
77 6% 40%  
78 8% 34%  
79 3% 27%  
80 8% 23%  
81 3% 15%  
82 3% 12%  
83 1.3% 9%  
84 2% 8%  
85 1.1% 6%  
86 2% 5%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.4%  
90 0.3% 0.9%  
91 0.1% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0% 0.4%  
94 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.2% 99.3%  
49 0.4% 99.1%  
50 0.6% 98.6%  
51 4% 98%  
52 0.8% 94%  
53 9% 93%  
54 6% 84%  
55 1.5% 78%  
56 5% 76%  
57 1.4% 71%  
58 20% 70%  
59 4% 50% Median
60 8% 47%  
61 3% 38%  
62 2% 35%  
63 6% 33%  
64 4% 27%  
65 9% 23%  
66 2% 13%  
67 3% 11%  
68 1.2% 8%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 1.5% 5%  
71 0.6% 4%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.4% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.7%  
75 0% 0.6%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 1.1% 99.1%  
43 1.5% 98%  
44 1.0% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 3% 92% Last Result
47 8% 89%  
48 5% 81%  
49 2% 76%  
50 9% 74%  
51 8% 65%  
52 14% 57% Median
53 4% 43%  
54 2% 38%  
55 9% 37%  
56 9% 28%  
57 5% 18%  
58 3% 13%  
59 0.7% 10%  
60 2% 10%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.3% 2%  
64 0.1% 1.4%  
65 0.3% 1.2%  
66 0.7% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0.3% 96%  
38 2% 96%  
39 3% 94%  
40 5% 91%  
41 5% 86%  
42 7% 81%  
43 6% 74%  
44 12% 68%  
45 7% 56% Median
46 8% 50%  
47 10% 41%  
48 4% 31%  
49 4% 27%  
50 9% 23%  
51 5% 13%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.3% 1.1%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 531 100% 519–541 516–548 514–563 507–570
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 459 100% 440–468 437–472 433–472 427–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 443 100% 429–449 421–457 419–459 414–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 413 100% 396–426 394–428 393–433 384–443
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 382–408 379–415 378–420 371–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 397 99.8% 383–408 378–412 371–414 362–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 39% 339–365 336–369 333–373 328–387
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 323 0% 307–334 302–336 294–340 283–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 312 0.2% 301–326 297–331 295–338 289–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 299 0% 284–310 281–313 272–316 258–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 252 0% 241–267 239–269 237–273 232–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 177 0% 168–190 166–195 162–197 159–205
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 163 0% 153–174 147–178 132–181 118–185

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 99.9%  
504 0.1% 99.9%  
505 0.1% 99.8%  
506 0.2% 99.7%  
507 0.1% 99.6%  
508 0.2% 99.4%  
509 0.2% 99.3%  
510 0.6% 99.1%  
511 0.2% 98%  
512 0.2% 98%  
513 0.3% 98%  
514 1.1% 98%  
515 0.8% 97%  
516 1.1% 96%  
517 3% 95%  
518 1.0% 92%  
519 3% 91%  
520 5% 87%  
521 3% 83%  
522 2% 80%  
523 5% 78%  
524 5% 72%  
525 2% 68%  
526 4% 66%  
527 2% 62%  
528 4% 60%  
529 3% 56% Median
530 1.1% 53%  
531 3% 52%  
532 7% 49%  
533 5% 42%  
534 2% 36%  
535 2% 34%  
536 10% 32%  
537 6% 21%  
538 2% 15%  
539 0.6% 14%  
540 1.2% 13%  
541 4% 12%  
542 0.6% 8%  
543 0.4% 7%  
544 0.5% 7%  
545 0.3% 6%  
546 0.7% 6%  
547 0.2% 5%  
548 0.2% 5%  
549 0.2% 5%  
550 0.2% 5%  
551 0.4% 4%  
552 0.1% 4%  
553 0.1% 4%  
554 0.1% 4%  
555 0.2% 4%  
556 0% 4%  
557 0% 4%  
558 0% 4%  
559 0.1% 4%  
560 0.6% 3%  
561 0.2% 3%  
562 0.1% 3%  
563 0.3% 3%  
564 0.1% 2%  
565 0.5% 2%  
566 0.6% 2%  
567 0% 1.1%  
568 0.6% 1.1%  
569 0% 0.5%  
570 0% 0.5%  
571 0.1% 0.5%  
572 0% 0.4%  
573 0% 0.4%  
574 0% 0.3%  
575 0% 0.3%  
576 0% 0.3%  
577 0.1% 0.3%  
578 0% 0.2%  
579 0% 0.2%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0.1% 0.1%  
585 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0.1% 100%  
419 0.1% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.8%  
421 0% 99.8%  
422 0% 99.8%  
423 0% 99.8%  
424 0% 99.8%  
425 0% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.2% 99.7%  
428 0.9% 99.5%  
429 0.3% 98.6%  
430 0% 98%  
431 0.2% 98%  
432 0.3% 98%  
433 0.9% 98%  
434 0.1% 97%  
435 0.2% 97%  
436 0.5% 97%  
437 2% 96%  
438 1.2% 94%  
439 1.1% 92%  
440 1.5% 91%  
441 2% 90%  
442 0.7% 88%  
443 0.9% 87%  
444 2% 87%  
445 4% 85%  
446 0.6% 82%  
447 0.6% 81%  
448 3% 80%  
449 3% 77%  
450 5% 74%  
451 3% 69%  
452 2% 66%  
453 2% 64%  
454 3% 62%  
455 3% 59%  
456 3% 56% Median
457 2% 53%  
458 0.9% 51%  
459 4% 50%  
460 5% 46%  
461 10% 42%  
462 4% 32%  
463 4% 28%  
464 5% 24%  
465 2% 19%  
466 0.9% 17%  
467 4% 16%  
468 5% 12%  
469 0.4% 7%  
470 1.3% 7%  
471 0.2% 5%  
472 3% 5%  
473 0.9% 2%  
474 0.4% 2%  
475 0.5% 1.2%  
476 0.2% 0.7%  
477 0% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.4%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
402 0.1% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0% 99.7%  
408 0% 99.7%  
409 0% 99.6%  
410 0% 99.6%  
411 0% 99.6%  
412 0% 99.6%  
413 0% 99.6%  
414 0% 99.5%  
415 0.2% 99.5%  
416 0.3% 99.3%  
417 0.3% 98.9%  
418 1.0% 98.7%  
419 0.4% 98%  
420 2% 97%  
421 1.0% 96%  
422 2% 95%  
423 0.1% 92%  
424 0% 92%  
425 0% 92%  
426 0% 92%  
427 0.2% 92%  
428 1.1% 92%  
429 0.9% 91%  
430 5% 90%  
431 5% 84%  
432 3% 79%  
433 7% 76%  
434 2% 69%  
435 4% 67%  
436 5% 64%  
437 0.1% 58%  
438 0.1% 58%  
439 0% 58%  
440 2% 58% Median
441 2% 56%  
442 2% 54%  
443 9% 53%  
444 4% 44%  
445 5% 40%  
446 9% 35%  
447 5% 26%  
448 10% 21%  
449 0.8% 10%  
450 0.5% 10%  
451 0.1% 9%  
452 0% 9%  
453 0.2% 9%  
454 0.4% 9%  
455 1.4% 8%  
456 2% 7%  
457 1.3% 5%  
458 0.9% 4%  
459 1.3% 3%  
460 0.6% 2%  
461 0.4% 1.1%  
462 0.4% 0.7%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0.1% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.3% 99.7%  
385 0.1% 99.4%  
386 0.1% 99.4%  
387 0.1% 99.3%  
388 0% 99.2%  
389 0.1% 99.2%  
390 0.2% 99.0%  
391 0.3% 98.8%  
392 1.1% 98.6%  
393 1.1% 98%  
394 2% 96%  
395 1.1% 94%  
396 3% 93%  
397 0.4% 90%  
398 2% 89%  
399 1.3% 88%  
400 1.1% 87%  
401 2% 85%  
402 3% 83%  
403 1.1% 80%  
404 4% 79%  
405 2% 75%  
406 2% 72%  
407 4% 70%  
408 3% 66%  
409 3% 63%  
410 2% 60%  
411 2% 58% Median
412 3% 56%  
413 4% 53%  
414 9% 49%  
415 8% 40%  
416 4% 32%  
417 3% 28%  
418 5% 25%  
419 2% 19%  
420 0.7% 18%  
421 0.3% 17%  
422 0.7% 17%  
423 0.7% 16%  
424 4% 15%  
425 0.5% 11%  
426 2% 11%  
427 2% 9%  
428 3% 8%  
429 0.9% 5%  
430 0.3% 4%  
431 0.3% 3%  
432 0.1% 3%  
433 0.9% 3%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0% 2%  
436 0.1% 2%  
437 0% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.7% 2%  
442 0.2% 0.9%  
443 0.3% 0.7%  
444 0% 0.5%  
445 0% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.4%  
447 0% 0.3%  
448 0% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.3%  
451 0% 0.3%  
452 0.1% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.2% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.6%  
371 0.2% 99.5%  
372 0.2% 99.3%  
373 0.1% 99.1%  
374 0.1% 99.0%  
375 0.3% 98.9%  
376 0.6% 98.6%  
377 0.2% 98%  
378 0.9% 98%  
379 2% 97%  
380 0.4% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 3% 92%  
383 0.8% 89%  
384 2% 88%  
385 1.4% 86%  
386 0.9% 84%  
387 3% 83%  
388 5% 80%  
389 3% 75%  
390 3% 72%  
391 5% 69%  
392 6% 64%  
393 3% 59%  
394 3% 56%  
395 0.8% 53% Median
396 2% 52%  
397 3% 50%  
398 6% 47%  
399 5% 42% Last Result
400 9% 37%  
401 3% 28%  
402 1.1% 25%  
403 2% 24%  
404 6% 22%  
405 1.3% 17%  
406 3% 15%  
407 1.4% 12%  
408 1.1% 11%  
409 0.8% 10%  
410 2% 9%  
411 0.3% 7%  
412 0.9% 6%  
413 0.1% 6%  
414 0.3% 5%  
415 0.3% 5%  
416 0.4% 5%  
417 0.3% 4%  
418 0.8% 4%  
419 0.2% 3%  
420 1.0% 3%  
421 0.6% 2%  
422 0.1% 1.4%  
423 0% 1.3%  
424 0% 1.3%  
425 0% 1.2%  
426 0% 1.2%  
427 0.1% 1.2%  
428 0% 1.2%  
429 0% 1.1%  
430 0.6% 1.1%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0.2% 0.5%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0.1% 100%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.5%  
364 0.5% 99.4%  
365 0% 98.9%  
366 0% 98.8%  
367 0.1% 98.8%  
368 0.1% 98.7%  
369 0.5% 98.6%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 0.1% 98%  
372 0.1% 97%  
373 0.1% 97%  
374 0.4% 97%  
375 0.4% 97%  
376 0.7% 97%  
377 0.8% 96%  
378 0.6% 95%  
379 1.0% 94%  
380 1.3% 93%  
381 0.8% 92%  
382 0.3% 91%  
383 2% 91%  
384 0.8% 89%  
385 4% 88%  
386 2% 84%  
387 2% 83%  
388 1.5% 81%  
389 4% 79%  
390 2% 75%  
391 5% 74%  
392 3% 69%  
393 1.0% 66%  
394 1.4% 65%  
395 7% 64%  
396 4% 56%  
397 5% 52% Median
398 1.2% 47%  
399 8% 46%  
400 5% 38%  
401 5% 33%  
402 0.9% 28%  
403 2% 27%  
404 6% 25%  
405 2% 19%  
406 5% 17%  
407 1.3% 12%  
408 1.3% 10%  
409 2% 9%  
410 0.8% 8%  
411 1.1% 7%  
412 2% 6%  
413 0.9% 4%  
414 0.4% 3%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0.7% 2%  
417 0.1% 1.2%  
418 0.3% 1.1%  
419 0.1% 0.7%  
420 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
421 0.2% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0% 99.6%  
328 0.3% 99.5%  
329 0.1% 99.3%  
330 0.2% 99.2%  
331 0.7% 99.0%  
332 0.6% 98%  
333 2% 98%  
334 0.5% 96%  
335 0.7% 96%  
336 1.0% 95%  
337 2% 94%  
338 0.8% 92%  
339 2% 91%  
340 3% 90% Last Result
341 3% 86%  
342 2% 84%  
343 3% 82%  
344 1.4% 79%  
345 1.2% 78%  
346 2% 77%  
347 3% 74%  
348 5% 71%  
349 7% 65%  
350 3% 59%  
351 10% 56%  
352 0.6% 46% Median
353 4% 46%  
354 3% 42%  
355 1.3% 39% Majority
356 8% 38%  
357 4% 30%  
358 0.8% 26%  
359 8% 25%  
360 0.9% 17%  
361 0.7% 16%  
362 3% 15%  
363 0.3% 12%  
364 2% 12%  
365 2% 10%  
366 0.2% 8%  
367 0.4% 8%  
368 2% 8%  
369 0.7% 5%  
370 1.0% 5%  
371 0.6% 4%  
372 0.4% 3%  
373 0.5% 3%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0.1% 2%  
376 0.1% 2%  
377 0.6% 2%  
378 0.2% 1.4%  
379 0.1% 1.2%  
380 0.1% 1.1%  
381 0.1% 1.0%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0% 0.8%  
384 0% 0.8%  
385 0% 0.8%  
386 0.1% 0.7%  
387 0.3% 0.6%  
388 0.2% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.5% 99.6%  
284 0% 99.0%  
285 0% 99.0%  
286 0.1% 99.0%  
287 0.1% 99.0%  
288 0.1% 98.9%  
289 0.5% 98.8%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0% 98%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0% 97%  
296 0.1% 97%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 0.6% 97%  
299 0.5% 96%  
300 0.1% 95%  
301 0.2% 95%  
302 0.3% 95%  
303 0.9% 95%  
304 2% 94%  
305 0.9% 92%  
306 0.5% 91%  
307 0.2% 90%  
308 2% 90%  
309 2% 88%  
310 2% 87%  
311 4% 85%  
312 0.6% 80%  
313 0.6% 80%  
314 1.1% 79%  
315 4% 78%  
316 4% 74%  
317 5% 70%  
318 2% 65%  
319 1.5% 63%  
320 1.0% 61%  
321 3% 61%  
322 4% 57% Median
323 6% 53%  
324 8% 48%  
325 1.3% 39%  
326 2% 38% Last Result
327 0.8% 36%  
328 9% 35%  
329 3% 26%  
330 7% 23%  
331 1.5% 16%  
332 0.9% 15%  
333 0.5% 14%  
334 6% 13%  
335 2% 8%  
336 2% 6%  
337 0.5% 4%  
338 0.1% 4%  
339 0.5% 4%  
340 1.3% 3%  
341 0.6% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.2%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.2% 99.8%  
289 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0.3% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 98.9%  
293 0.7% 98.8%  
294 0.4% 98%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.9% 97%  
297 2% 96%  
298 1.1% 94%  
299 0.8% 93%  
300 2% 92%  
301 1.3% 91%  
302 1.3% 90%  
303 5% 88%  
304 2% 83%  
305 6% 81%  
306 2% 75%  
307 0.9% 73%  
308 5% 72%  
309 5% 67%  
310 8% 62%  
311 1.2% 54% Median
312 5% 53%  
313 4% 48%  
314 7% 44%  
315 1.4% 36%  
316 1.0% 35%  
317 3% 34%  
318 5% 31%  
319 2% 26%  
320 4% 25%  
321 1.5% 21%  
322 2% 19%  
323 2% 17%  
324 4% 16%  
325 0.8% 12%  
326 2% 11%  
327 0.3% 9%  
328 0.8% 9%  
329 1.3% 8%  
330 1.0% 7%  
331 0.6% 6%  
332 0.8% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.1% 3%  
337 0.1% 3%  
338 0.1% 3%  
339 0.6% 2%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.4%  
342 0.1% 1.3%  
343 0% 1.2%  
344 0% 1.2%  
345 0.5% 1.1%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.2% 0.5%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0.1% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.2% 99.6%  
259 0% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.5%  
261 0.3% 99.5%  
262 0% 99.1%  
263 0% 99.1%  
264 0.1% 99.1%  
265 0% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 98.9%  
267 0.1% 98.9%  
268 0% 98.7%  
269 0.5% 98.7%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.1% 98%  
273 0.1% 97%  
274 0.1% 97%  
275 0.2% 97%  
276 0.1% 97%  
277 0.8% 97%  
278 0.1% 96%  
279 0.1% 96%  
280 0.4% 96%  
281 1.1% 96%  
282 2% 94%  
283 0.1% 92%  
284 2% 92%  
285 2% 90%  
286 1.2% 87%  
287 1.5% 86%  
288 5% 85%  
289 4% 80%  
290 1.3% 76%  
291 3% 75%  
292 5% 72%  
293 0.6% 67%  
294 3% 66%  
295 4% 63%  
296 1.2% 58%  
297 2% 57% Median
298 2% 55%  
299 6% 53%  
300 4% 48% Last Result
301 3% 44%  
302 9% 40%  
303 4% 31%  
304 0.7% 27%  
305 7% 27%  
306 2% 19%  
307 0.4% 17%  
308 3% 17%  
309 3% 14%  
310 1.4% 11%  
311 0.6% 10%  
312 4% 9%  
313 1.3% 5%  
314 0.9% 4%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 1.3% 3%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.4% 1.3%  
320 0.2% 1.0%  
321 0% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0.2% 0.3%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.3% 99.5%  
233 0.4% 99.2%  
234 0.1% 98.8%  
235 0.3% 98.7%  
236 0.7% 98%  
237 0.7% 98%  
238 0.8% 97%  
239 2% 96%  
240 3% 94%  
241 4% 91%  
242 2% 87%  
243 2% 85%  
244 1.4% 83%  
245 5% 81%  
246 2% 77%  
247 1.3% 75%  
248 5% 74%  
249 2% 69%  
250 5% 68%  
251 3% 62%  
252 10% 60% Median
253 3% 49%  
254 1.4% 46%  
255 4% 45%  
256 8% 41%  
257 1.1% 33%  
258 3% 32%  
259 8% 29%  
260 4% 21%  
261 0.9% 18%  
262 0.4% 17%  
263 1.3% 16%  
264 2% 15%  
265 2% 13%  
266 1.1% 11%  
267 1.0% 10%  
268 2% 9%  
269 2% 7%  
270 0.4% 5%  
271 0.9% 4%  
272 0.3% 3%  
273 0.5% 3%  
274 0.1% 2%  
275 0.4% 2%  
276 0.1% 2%  
277 0.5% 2%  
278 0.1% 1.4%  
279 0.2% 1.3%  
280 0% 1.1%  
281 0% 1.0%  
282 0.5% 1.0%  
283 0% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0.1% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.2% 99.9%  
159 0.4% 99.6%  
160 0.5% 99.2%  
161 0.5% 98.8%  
162 1.0% 98%  
163 0.1% 97%  
164 0.1% 97%  
165 0.3% 97%  
166 3% 97%  
167 3% 94%  
168 2% 91%  
169 4% 88%  
170 9% 84%  
171 0.8% 76%  
172 0.9% 75%  
173 2% 74%  
174 3% 72%  
175 8% 69%  
176 9% 61%  
177 5% 52% Median
178 2% 47%  
179 3% 45%  
180 4% 42%  
181 2% 38%  
182 6% 35%  
183 3% 29%  
184 1.5% 26%  
185 2% 24%  
186 4% 22%  
187 3% 18%  
188 3% 16%  
189 3% 13%  
190 0.9% 10%  
191 0.6% 9%  
192 1.0% 9%  
193 0.3% 8%  
194 2% 8%  
195 2% 6%  
196 1.2% 4%  
197 0.8% 3%  
198 0.2% 2%  
199 0.1% 2%  
200 0.8% 2%  
201 0.2% 1.2%  
202 0.3% 1.1%  
203 0.1% 0.8%  
204 0% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0.2% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.3% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.5%  
120 0.1% 99.4%  
121 0.1% 99.3%  
122 0.2% 99.1%  
123 0.1% 99.0%  
124 0.1% 98.9%  
125 0.1% 98.8%  
126 0% 98.7%  
127 0.5% 98.7%  
128 0% 98%  
129 0.1% 98%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 0.2% 98%  
132 0.3% 98%  
133 0.5% 97%  
134 0% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0.6% 97%  
138 0% 96%  
139 0% 96%  
140 0% 96%  
141 0.1% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 0.1% 96%  
144 0.5% 96%  
145 0.2% 95%  
146 0% 95%  
147 0.4% 95%  
148 0.4% 95%  
149 0.4% 94%  
150 1.1% 94%  
151 0.4% 93%  
152 1.0% 92%  
153 2% 91%  
154 0.9% 90%  
155 4% 89%  
156 5% 84%  
157 5% 79%  
158 3% 74%  
159 1.2% 71%  
160 4% 70%  
161 6% 66%  
162 8% 60%  
163 4% 53% Median
164 3% 49%  
165 3% 46%  
166 4% 43%  
167 3% 38%  
168 11% 35%  
169 3% 24%  
170 3% 21%  
171 3% 18%  
172 1.1% 16%  
173 2% 14%  
174 3% 13%  
175 2% 9%  
176 1.1% 7%  
177 0.8% 6%  
178 0.5% 5%  
179 1.3% 5%  
180 0.3% 3%  
181 0.7% 3%  
182 1.1% 2%  
183 0.5% 1.1%  
184 0.1% 0.6%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.2% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations