Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 26–29 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.3–29.8% 26.9–30.2% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.5% 9.6–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 212 203–222 200–225 198–227 194–231
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 119–135 117–137 115–139 112–143
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 112–127 110–129 108–131 104–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 72–85 70–87 69–89 66–92
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 53–67 51–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 54–66 53–67 51–69 49–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.2% 99.7%  
194 0.2% 99.5%  
195 0.3% 99.3%  
196 0.6% 99.0%  
197 0.5% 98%  
198 0.9% 98%  
199 1.0% 97%  
200 1.2% 96% Last Result
201 2% 95%  
202 2% 93%  
203 2% 91%  
204 3% 89%  
205 3% 86%  
206 3% 83%  
207 5% 79%  
208 5% 75%  
209 5% 70%  
210 6% 65%  
211 6% 60%  
212 4% 54% Median
213 4% 50%  
214 7% 45%  
215 6% 39%  
216 4% 32%  
217 3% 28%  
218 5% 25%  
219 4% 20%  
220 3% 16%  
221 2% 13%  
222 2% 11%  
223 2% 9%  
224 2% 7%  
225 1.3% 5%  
226 1.0% 4%  
227 0.8% 3%  
228 0.6% 2%  
229 0.5% 2%  
230 0.3% 1.1%  
231 0.3% 0.8%  
232 0.2% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.3%  
234 0.1% 0.2%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.4% 99.6%  
113 0.5% 99.2%  
114 0.6% 98.7%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 2% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 3% 94%  
119 3% 91%  
120 4% 88%  
121 5% 84%  
122 5% 79%  
123 6% 74%  
124 4% 68%  
125 5% 64%  
126 7% 59%  
127 6% 52% Median
128 5% 46%  
129 6% 41%  
130 7% 35%  
131 5% 28%  
132 4% 23%  
133 4% 19%  
134 4% 15%  
135 3% 12%  
136 3% 9%  
137 2% 6%  
138 1.4% 4%  
139 0.8% 3%  
140 0.8% 2%  
141 0.5% 1.4%  
142 0.2% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.4% 99.5%  
106 0.5% 99.0%  
107 0.8% 98.6%  
108 1.2% 98%  
109 1.3% 97%  
110 2% 95%  
111 3% 93%  
112 4% 91%  
113 3% 87%  
114 5% 84%  
115 6% 79%  
116 6% 73%  
117 5% 67%  
118 8% 62%  
119 6% 54% Median
120 6% 48%  
121 6% 42%  
122 7% 36%  
123 5% 29%  
124 5% 24%  
125 4% 19%  
126 4% 15%  
127 2% 11%  
128 2% 9%  
129 2% 7%  
130 1.1% 4%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.0%  
135 0.3% 0.7%  
136 0.2% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.6% 99.2%  
68 0.8% 98.6%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 94%  
72 4% 91%  
73 5% 87%  
74 5% 83%  
75 7% 78%  
76 7% 71%  
77 7% 63%  
78 9% 56% Median
79 8% 47%  
80 7% 39%  
81 6% 32%  
82 6% 26%  
83 4% 20%  
84 5% 16%  
85 3% 11%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.1% 4%  
89 1.1% 3%  
90 0.5% 1.5%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0.8% 99.2%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 4% 93%  
55 6% 88%  
56 6% 83%  
57 9% 77%  
58 8% 68%  
59 9% 60%  
60 8% 52% Median
61 9% 43%  
62 8% 35%  
63 6% 26%  
64 5% 20%  
65 5% 15%  
66 3% 10%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.0% 3% Last Result
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 0.5% 99.2%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 1.4% 97%  
53 4% 96%  
54 3% 92%  
55 6% 89%  
56 5% 83%  
57 9% 78%  
58 9% 68%  
59 9% 60%  
60 9% 51% Median
61 5% 42%  
62 11% 37%  
63 4% 26%  
64 8% 22%  
65 3% 13%  
66 4% 11%  
67 2% 7%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.3% 3%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.4% 99.4%  
44 1.3% 98.9%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 3% 93%  
48 7% 90%  
49 6% 83%  
50 10% 77%  
51 7% 67%  
52 11% 60% Median
53 7% 49%  
54 11% 41%  
55 6% 30%  
56 7% 24%  
57 5% 17%  
58 4% 12%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 518 100% 509–527 507–530 504–532 500–537
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 452 100% 442–462 439–464 436–467 432–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 444 100% 434–454 431–457 428–459 423–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 403 100% 393–413 390–416 387–419 383–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 400 100% 389–409 386–412 383–415 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 392 100% 381–402 379–405 376–407 371–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 350 31% 340–361 337–364 335–366 330–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 325 0% 314–335 312–338 309–341 305–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 306 0% 296–316 293–319 290–322 286–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 299 0% 288–309 286–312 282–315 279–319
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 236–256 233–259 231–261 227–266
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 171–188 168–190 166–193 162–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 163–181 160–183 159–186 154–190

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.8%  
499 0.2% 99.7%  
500 0.2% 99.5%  
501 0.4% 99.4%  
502 0.3% 99.0%  
503 0.7% 98.7%  
504 0.7% 98%  
505 1.1% 97%  
506 1.1% 96%  
507 2% 95%  
508 2% 94%  
509 3% 91%  
510 2% 89%  
511 4% 87%  
512 2% 83%  
513 5% 80%  
514 4% 75%  
515 6% 71%  
516 4% 65%  
517 7% 61%  
518 5% 55% Median
519 5% 49%  
520 6% 44%  
521 4% 38%  
522 5% 34%  
523 4% 29%  
524 5% 24%  
525 3% 19%  
526 3% 16%  
527 4% 13%  
528 2% 9%  
529 2% 8%  
530 1.3% 6%  
531 1.1% 4%  
532 0.9% 3%  
533 0.8% 2%  
534 0.4% 1.5%  
535 0.4% 1.1%  
536 0.2% 0.7%  
537 0.1% 0.5%  
538 0.2% 0.4%  
539 0.1% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.1% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0.3% 99.6%  
433 0.2% 99.3%  
434 0.4% 99.1%  
435 0.6% 98.7%  
436 0.7% 98%  
437 0.9% 97%  
438 1.1% 97%  
439 1.0% 95%  
440 2% 94%  
441 2% 93%  
442 3% 90%  
443 3% 88%  
444 3% 85%  
445 3% 82%  
446 5% 79%  
447 5% 74%  
448 4% 70%  
449 6% 66%  
450 5% 59%  
451 4% 54% Median
452 4% 50%  
453 4% 46%  
454 6% 42%  
455 6% 36%  
456 4% 30%  
457 3% 26%  
458 4% 23%  
459 3% 19%  
460 3% 16%  
461 3% 13%  
462 2% 10%  
463 2% 8%  
464 1.4% 6%  
465 1.1% 5%  
466 0.7% 4%  
467 0.9% 3%  
468 0.5% 2%  
469 0.4% 1.4%  
470 0.2% 0.9%  
471 0.2% 0.7%  
472 0.1% 0.5%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.2% 99.7%  
424 0.2% 99.5%  
425 0.2% 99.3%  
426 0.2% 99.1%  
427 0.4% 98.8%  
428 1.0% 98%  
429 0.8% 97%  
430 0.7% 97%  
431 1.2% 96%  
432 1.4% 95%  
433 3% 93%  
434 2% 90%  
435 2% 88%  
436 2% 86%  
437 4% 84%  
438 5% 80%  
439 7% 76%  
440 3% 69%  
441 3% 66%  
442 5% 63%  
443 5% 58% Median
444 5% 53%  
445 4% 48%  
446 3% 44%  
447 5% 41%  
448 7% 35%  
449 6% 28%  
450 2% 22%  
451 2% 20%  
452 2% 18%  
453 3% 16%  
454 5% 13%  
455 1.3% 8%  
456 0.9% 7%  
457 1.2% 6%  
458 1.2% 4%  
459 1.2% 3%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.3% 2%  
462 0.2% 1.3%  
463 0.5% 1.1%  
464 0.2% 0.6%  
465 0.2% 0.4%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.2% 99.5%  
384 0.4% 99.4%  
385 0.3% 98.9%  
386 0.5% 98.6%  
387 0.8% 98%  
388 0.7% 97%  
389 1.2% 97%  
390 2% 96%  
391 1.2% 94%  
392 2% 93%  
393 2% 90%  
394 2% 88%  
395 3% 86%  
396 3% 83%  
397 3% 80%  
398 4% 76%  
399 6% 72%  
400 4% 66%  
401 6% 63%  
402 4% 56% Median
403 5% 52%  
404 3% 47%  
405 6% 43%  
406 4% 37%  
407 3% 33%  
408 4% 30%  
409 5% 26%  
410 2% 21%  
411 4% 18%  
412 2% 14%  
413 3% 12%  
414 2% 9%  
415 2% 7%  
416 1.0% 6%  
417 1.4% 5%  
418 0.6% 3%  
419 0.8% 3%  
420 0.5% 2% Last Result
421 0.2% 1.2%  
422 0.4% 1.1%  
423 0.2% 0.7%  
424 0.1% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.3% 99.6%  
380 0.3% 99.3%  
381 0.7% 99.0%  
382 0.3% 98%  
383 0.7% 98%  
384 0.5% 97%  
385 1.1% 97%  
386 1.4% 96%  
387 3% 94%  
388 2% 92%  
389 2% 90%  
390 2% 88%  
391 3% 86%  
392 3% 83%  
393 4% 80%  
394 4% 76%  
395 7% 72%  
396 3% 65%  
397 5% 62%  
398 4% 57%  
399 3% 53% Median
400 8% 50%  
401 4% 42%  
402 4% 38%  
403 5% 34%  
404 3% 28%  
405 2% 25%  
406 4% 23%  
407 2% 18%  
408 4% 16%  
409 2% 11%  
410 2% 9%  
411 1.0% 7%  
412 1.1% 6%  
413 0.9% 5%  
414 1.3% 4%  
415 0.7% 3%  
416 0.8% 2%  
417 0.2% 1.2%  
418 0.2% 1.0%  
419 0.2% 0.7%  
420 0.2% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0.1% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.2% 99.6%  
372 0.4% 99.4%  
373 0.3% 99.0%  
374 0.6% 98.7%  
375 0.6% 98%  
376 0.7% 98%  
377 0.8% 97%  
378 1.0% 96%  
379 1.4% 95%  
380 2% 94%  
381 3% 92%  
382 2% 89%  
383 3% 87%  
384 3% 84%  
385 5% 81%  
386 4% 76%  
387 5% 72%  
388 4% 67%  
389 4% 63%  
390 5% 60%  
391 4% 55% Median
392 4% 51%  
393 5% 47%  
394 5% 42%  
395 5% 37%  
396 4% 32%  
397 5% 28%  
398 4% 23%  
399 4% 19% Last Result
400 3% 15%  
401 2% 12%  
402 2% 10%  
403 2% 8%  
404 1.3% 7%  
405 1.0% 5%  
406 1.1% 4%  
407 0.9% 3%  
408 0.5% 2%  
409 0.7% 2%  
410 0.4% 1.3%  
411 0.3% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.2% 99.7%  
330 0.2% 99.5%  
331 0.2% 99.3%  
332 0.4% 99.1%  
333 0.5% 98.8%  
334 0.8% 98%  
335 0.6% 98%  
336 0.9% 97%  
337 1.3% 96%  
338 1.3% 95%  
339 2% 93%  
340 3% 91% Last Result
341 2% 89%  
342 3% 87%  
343 3% 84%  
344 4% 81%  
345 4% 77%  
346 4% 73%  
347 5% 69%  
348 4% 64%  
349 6% 61%  
350 5% 55% Median
351 6% 49%  
352 3% 44%  
353 4% 40%  
354 6% 36%  
355 4% 31% Majority
356 3% 26%  
357 5% 23%  
358 3% 19%  
359 3% 16%  
360 2% 13%  
361 2% 11%  
362 1.4% 9%  
363 2% 7%  
364 1.1% 5%  
365 1.2% 4%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.6% 2%  
368 0.6% 2%  
369 0.3% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.2% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.2% 99.7%  
305 0.3% 99.5%  
306 0.4% 99.2%  
307 0.5% 98.8%  
308 0.4% 98%  
309 0.6% 98%  
310 0.7% 97%  
311 1.3% 97%  
312 2% 95%  
313 2% 93%  
314 3% 92%  
315 2% 89%  
316 2% 88%  
317 3% 85%  
318 3% 82%  
319 6% 79%  
320 4% 73%  
321 5% 69%  
322 4% 64%  
323 3% 59%  
324 4% 56% Median
325 5% 52%  
326 7% 48% Last Result
327 4% 41%  
328 7% 37%  
329 3% 30%  
330 3% 27%  
331 3% 24%  
332 3% 21%  
333 5% 18%  
334 3% 14%  
335 3% 11%  
336 1.2% 9%  
337 2% 7%  
338 1.0% 6%  
339 0.9% 5%  
340 0.9% 4%  
341 1.0% 3%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.2%  
344 0.1% 0.9%  
345 0.2% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0.4% 99.3%  
288 0.2% 98.9%  
289 0.5% 98.8% Last Result
290 0.8% 98%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 1.4% 97%  
293 1.0% 95%  
294 2% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 3% 91%  
297 2% 88%  
298 4% 86%  
299 2% 82%  
300 5% 79%  
301 4% 74%  
302 3% 70%  
303 4% 67%  
304 6% 63%  
305 3% 57%  
306 5% 53% Median
307 4% 48%  
308 6% 44%  
309 4% 37%  
310 6% 34%  
311 4% 28%  
312 3% 24%  
313 3% 20%  
314 3% 17%  
315 2% 14%  
316 2% 12%  
317 2% 10%  
318 1.2% 7%  
319 2% 6%  
320 1.2% 4%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.8% 3%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.4%  
325 0.4% 1.1%  
326 0.2% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.7%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.4% 99.3%  
281 0.5% 98.9%  
282 0.9% 98%  
283 0.4% 97%  
284 0.7% 97%  
285 0.9% 96%  
286 1.5% 95%  
287 2% 94%  
288 3% 92%  
289 3% 90%  
290 3% 87%  
291 4% 84%  
292 3% 80%  
293 3% 77%  
294 3% 74%  
295 3% 71%  
296 5% 68%  
297 5% 63%  
298 7% 58% Median
299 7% 51%  
300 5% 44% Last Result
301 4% 39%  
302 5% 35%  
303 3% 30%  
304 2% 27%  
305 3% 25%  
306 4% 22%  
307 3% 18%  
308 3% 15%  
309 3% 12%  
310 2% 8%  
311 1.4% 7%  
312 1.1% 5%  
313 0.9% 4%  
314 0.5% 3%  
315 0.9% 3%  
316 0.5% 2%  
317 0.4% 1.3%  
318 0.3% 1.0%  
319 0.2% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.2% 99.7%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.3% 99.4%  
229 0.4% 99.0%  
230 0.7% 98.7%  
231 0.8% 98%  
232 1.1% 97%  
233 1.2% 96%  
234 1.5% 95%  
235 2% 93%  
236 2% 92%  
237 4% 90%  
238 3% 86%  
239 3% 83%  
240 4% 80%  
241 3% 76%  
242 4% 73%  
243 5% 69%  
244 5% 64%  
245 7% 59%  
246 6% 53% Median
247 4% 47%  
248 4% 43%  
249 6% 39%  
250 3% 33%  
251 5% 30%  
252 4% 25%  
253 4% 21%  
254 3% 17%  
255 2% 14%  
256 2% 11%  
257 3% 10%  
258 2% 7%  
259 2% 6%  
260 1.1% 4%  
261 0.6% 3%  
262 0.6% 2%  
263 0.5% 2%  
264 0.4% 1.2%  
265 0.2% 0.8%  
266 0.2% 0.6%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.4% 99.3%  
164 0.5% 98.9%  
165 0.7% 98%  
166 1.2% 98%  
167 1.4% 97%  
168 1.2% 95%  
169 2% 94%  
170 2% 92%  
171 3% 90%  
172 4% 87%  
173 5% 83%  
174 4% 77%  
175 4% 73%  
176 4% 69%  
177 5% 65%  
178 6% 60%  
179 6% 54% Median
180 7% 48%  
181 7% 41%  
182 4% 34%  
183 4% 30%  
184 3% 26%  
185 4% 23%  
186 4% 19%  
187 3% 15%  
188 3% 12%  
189 3% 9%  
190 2% 6%  
191 0.8% 5%  
192 1.0% 4%  
193 0.8% 3%  
194 0.6% 2%  
195 0.4% 2%  
196 0.5% 1.1%  
197 0.2% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.6%  
155 0.3% 99.5%  
156 0.3% 99.2%  
157 0.4% 98.9%  
158 0.8% 98%  
159 1.3% 98%  
160 2% 96%  
161 1.2% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 4% 90%  
165 4% 85%  
166 4% 81%  
167 3% 77%  
168 4% 74%  
169 6% 70%  
170 7% 64%  
171 7% 58% Median
172 6% 51%  
173 5% 44%  
174 5% 40%  
175 5% 35%  
176 7% 31%  
177 4% 24%  
178 4% 20%  
179 2% 16%  
180 2% 14%  
181 3% 12%  
182 2% 9%  
183 2% 7%  
184 1.0% 4%  
185 0.7% 3%  
186 0.6% 3%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.2%  
189 0.3% 0.8%  
190 0.2% 0.5%  
191 0.1% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations