Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 3–6 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.8–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 209–228 206–231 203–233 200–239
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 126 120–135 119–138 116–139 113–144
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–120 103–122 102–123 97–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–90 74–92 74–94 70–98
Die Linke 69 62 58–65 56–67 55–67 50–70
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 48–59 47–59 44–60 44–63
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 48–59 47–60 46–62 43–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.3%  
202 0.3% 99.1%  
203 1.5% 98.8%  
204 0.2% 97%  
205 1.2% 97%  
206 1.0% 96%  
207 1.5% 95%  
208 1.4% 93%  
209 4% 92%  
210 2% 88%  
211 3% 85%  
212 3% 82%  
213 4% 79%  
214 4% 75%  
215 7% 70%  
216 1.1% 64%  
217 3% 63%  
218 6% 60%  
219 3% 54%  
220 9% 50% Median
221 4% 42%  
222 11% 38%  
223 4% 27%  
224 2% 23%  
225 6% 21%  
226 2% 15%  
227 0.9% 13%  
228 2% 12%  
229 2% 9%  
230 1.2% 7%  
231 1.1% 6%  
232 0.8% 5%  
233 2% 4%  
234 0.3% 2%  
235 0.6% 2%  
236 0.5% 1.5%  
237 0.2% 1.0%  
238 0.1% 0.8%  
239 0.5% 0.7%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.5% 99.6%  
114 0.8% 99.1%  
115 0.6% 98%  
116 1.0% 98%  
117 0.6% 97%  
118 0.7% 96%  
119 2% 95%  
120 4% 94%  
121 4% 89%  
122 5% 85%  
123 2% 80%  
124 11% 78%  
125 8% 67%  
126 11% 59% Median
127 5% 48%  
128 3% 43%  
129 2% 39%  
130 6% 37%  
131 4% 31%  
132 7% 27%  
133 3% 20%  
134 4% 16%  
135 3% 12%  
136 2% 10%  
137 3% 8%  
138 1.4% 5%  
139 2% 4%  
140 0.4% 2%  
141 0.3% 2%  
142 0.6% 1.3%  
143 0.2% 0.7%  
144 0.4% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.5%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 0.9% 99.2%  
101 0.5% 98%  
102 2% 98%  
103 1.4% 96%  
104 1.4% 94%  
105 4% 93%  
106 4% 89%  
107 5% 85%  
108 5% 80%  
109 4% 75%  
110 3% 70%  
111 12% 67%  
112 9% 56% Median
113 3% 47%  
114 12% 44%  
115 3% 32%  
116 4% 28%  
117 7% 25%  
118 4% 18%  
119 4% 14%  
120 2% 10%  
121 1.4% 8%  
122 2% 7%  
123 3% 5%  
124 0.4% 2%  
125 0.8% 2%  
126 0.3% 1.0%  
127 0.1% 0.7%  
128 0.3% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.5%  
72 0.4% 98.7%  
73 0.5% 98%  
74 5% 98%  
75 3% 92%  
76 1.4% 90%  
77 7% 88%  
78 3% 82%  
79 7% 78%  
80 7% 71%  
81 2% 65%  
82 14% 63% Median
83 4% 49%  
84 5% 45%  
85 13% 39%  
86 2% 26%  
87 7% 24%  
88 5% 17%  
89 2% 12%  
90 3% 10%  
91 1.1% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.0% 4%  
94 0.7% 3% Last Result
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.1% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.7%  
98 0.4% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 0.3% 99.4%  
52 0.2% 99.1%  
53 0.4% 98.8%  
54 0.4% 98%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 4% 94%  
58 3% 91%  
59 13% 87%  
60 8% 75%  
61 17% 67%  
62 8% 50% Median
63 15% 42%  
64 10% 27%  
65 7% 17%  
66 3% 10%  
67 5% 7%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 3% 99.6%  
45 0.5% 96%  
46 0% 96%  
47 3% 96%  
48 14% 92%  
49 0.9% 78%  
50 0.1% 77%  
51 17% 77%  
52 23% 60% Median
53 0.9% 37%  
54 0.5% 36%  
55 16% 35%  
56 8% 19%  
57 0.2% 11%  
58 0.7% 11%  
59 7% 10%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0% 2%  
62 0.2% 2%  
63 1.1% 1.4%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 0.2% 99.3%  
45 1.0% 99.1%  
46 3% 98% Last Result
47 0.8% 95%  
48 5% 95%  
49 5% 89%  
50 3% 84%  
51 9% 81%  
52 8% 73%  
53 9% 64%  
54 14% 55% Median
55 10% 42%  
56 5% 32%  
57 10% 28%  
58 5% 17%  
59 5% 12%  
60 2% 7%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 513 100% 503–521 501–524 498–525 494–530
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 453 100% 443–462 439–464 438–467 432–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 438 100% 426–446 424–449 422–452 417–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 408 100% 397–418 394–421 392–425 388–428
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 400 100% 389–410 386–414 384–415 380–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 385 100% 374–395 371–398 369–401 364–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 356 56% 344–365 342–369 341–372 336–376
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 325 0% 314–334 311–338 310–340 305–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 301 0% 291–312 288–315 284–317 281–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 292 0% 283–300 282–302 280–303 278–313
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 238 0% 231–248 228–250 227–252 223–258
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 166–184 162–186 160–187 155–191
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 165 0% 157–173 155–174 153–177 149–182

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 99.9%  
490 0% 99.9%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.8%  
493 0.2% 99.7%  
494 0.3% 99.5%  
495 0.2% 99.3%  
496 0.5% 99.0%  
497 1.0% 98.6%  
498 0.2% 98%  
499 1.2% 97%  
500 1.1% 96%  
501 1.1% 95%  
502 3% 94%  
503 3% 91%  
504 3% 88%  
505 0.9% 84%  
506 4% 83%  
507 5% 80%  
508 4% 74%  
509 5% 70%  
510 1.4% 66%  
511 5% 64%  
512 9% 59% Median
513 6% 50%  
514 6% 44%  
515 2% 38%  
516 11% 36%  
517 3% 25%  
518 4% 22%  
519 2% 19%  
520 5% 16%  
521 3% 11%  
522 1.0% 9%  
523 3% 8%  
524 1.4% 5%  
525 1.2% 4%  
526 0.9% 2%  
527 0.4% 2%  
528 0.5% 1.2%  
529 0.1% 0.7%  
530 0.2% 0.6%  
531 0.2% 0.4%  
532 0.1% 0.2%  
533 0.1% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0.3% 99.8%  
432 0.1% 99.6%  
433 0.3% 99.5%  
434 0.1% 99.2%  
435 0.3% 99.1%  
436 1.0% 98.8%  
437 0.2% 98%  
438 2% 98%  
439 0.5% 95%  
440 1.1% 95%  
441 1.0% 94%  
442 2% 93%  
443 3% 91%  
444 4% 87%  
445 4% 83%  
446 2% 79%  
447 2% 77%  
448 4% 76%  
449 13% 72%  
450 3% 59%  
451 0.7% 56%  
452 5% 56% Median
453 5% 51%  
454 8% 46%  
455 3% 38%  
456 2% 35%  
457 9% 33%  
458 2% 23%  
459 4% 21%  
460 4% 17%  
461 1.2% 13%  
462 3% 12%  
463 1.1% 10%  
464 4% 9%  
465 0.7% 5%  
466 0.5% 4%  
467 1.0% 3%  
468 0.3% 2%  
469 1.0% 2%  
470 0.2% 1.1%  
471 0.5% 0.9%  
472 0.2% 0.4%  
473 0% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0.1% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0% 99.7%  
417 0.2% 99.7%  
418 0.2% 99.4%  
419 0.1% 99.2%  
420 0.3% 99.1%  
421 0.5% 98.8%  
422 2% 98%  
423 0.4% 97%  
424 2% 96%  
425 4% 94%  
426 0.4% 90%  
427 3% 90%  
428 2% 87%  
429 2% 85%  
430 1.2% 83%  
431 5% 82%  
432 4% 77%  
433 1.1% 73%  
434 3% 72%  
435 5% 69%  
436 5% 64%  
437 5% 59%  
438 5% 54% Median
439 11% 49%  
440 3% 38%  
441 2% 34%  
442 14% 33%  
443 2% 19%  
444 1.3% 17%  
445 2% 15%  
446 3% 13%  
447 0.6% 10%  
448 2% 9%  
449 2% 7%  
450 0.8% 5%  
451 1.0% 4%  
452 0.6% 3%  
453 0.4% 2%  
454 0.6% 2%  
455 0.3% 1.3%  
456 0.3% 1.1%  
457 0.4% 0.7%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0.2% 0.3%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.3% 99.7%  
389 0.3% 99.4%  
390 0.5% 99.1%  
391 0.6% 98.6%  
392 0.6% 98%  
393 1.0% 97%  
394 3% 96%  
395 0.5% 94%  
396 3% 93%  
397 1.3% 90%  
398 4% 89%  
399 4% 85%  
400 3% 81%  
401 3% 78%  
402 2% 75%  
403 3% 73%  
404 5% 70%  
405 2% 65%  
406 4% 63%  
407 6% 59%  
408 4% 53% Median
409 4% 50%  
410 10% 45%  
411 6% 36%  
412 2% 30%  
413 10% 28%  
414 2% 18%  
415 1.3% 16%  
416 2% 14%  
417 1.2% 12%  
418 1.1% 11%  
419 0.9% 10%  
420 3% 9% Last Result
421 1.1% 6%  
422 0.7% 5%  
423 0.9% 4%  
424 0.5% 3%  
425 0.8% 3%  
426 0.5% 2%  
427 0.4% 1.3%  
428 0.4% 0.8%  
429 0.1% 0.4%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.2% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.4% 99.6%  
381 0.3% 99.2%  
382 0.2% 98.8%  
383 1.0% 98.6%  
384 0.4% 98%  
385 2% 97%  
386 0.9% 96%  
387 0.2% 95%  
388 0.8% 95%  
389 4% 94%  
390 4% 90%  
391 3% 85%  
392 3% 82%  
393 1.3% 80%  
394 6% 78%  
395 1.1% 73%  
396 4% 71%  
397 1.5% 67%  
398 9% 66%  
399 6% 56%  
400 4% 50% Median
401 5% 46%  
402 4% 41%  
403 0.9% 37%  
404 3% 36%  
405 10% 34%  
406 2% 23%  
407 3% 22%  
408 5% 19%  
409 4% 14%  
410 3% 10%  
411 0.3% 7%  
412 0.7% 7%  
413 1.1% 6%  
414 1.3% 5%  
415 2% 4%  
416 0.5% 2%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.4% 1.5%  
419 0.4% 1.0%  
420 0.2% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0.2% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.4% 99.2%  
367 0.5% 98.8%  
368 0.1% 98%  
369 2% 98%  
370 0.5% 96%  
371 2% 96%  
372 1.2% 94%  
373 3% 93%  
374 2% 90%  
375 0.5% 88%  
376 4% 88%  
377 4% 84%  
378 0.5% 80%  
379 5% 80%  
380 5% 75%  
381 2% 70%  
382 3% 68%  
383 7% 65%  
384 2% 58%  
385 7% 56%  
386 3% 49% Median
387 3% 46%  
388 10% 43%  
389 0.7% 33%  
390 14% 32%  
391 1.0% 18%  
392 2% 17%  
393 1.1% 15%  
394 3% 14%  
395 2% 11%  
396 0.8% 9%  
397 2% 8%  
398 3% 6%  
399 0.6% 4% Last Result
400 0.3% 3%  
401 1.1% 3%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.4% 1.5%  
404 0.5% 1.1%  
405 0% 0.5%  
406 0% 0.5%  
407 0.2% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.2% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.6%  
336 0.3% 99.5%  
337 0.1% 99.2%  
338 0.6% 99.1%  
339 0.1% 98.6%  
340 0.8% 98% Last Result
341 1.4% 98%  
342 2% 96%  
343 3% 95%  
344 2% 91%  
345 1.0% 90%  
346 6% 89%  
347 1.2% 83%  
348 6% 82%  
349 2% 76%  
350 4% 74%  
351 3% 71%  
352 7% 68%  
353 1.4% 60%  
354 3% 59%  
355 5% 56% Majority
356 5% 50% Median
357 2% 45%  
358 3% 43%  
359 11% 39%  
360 1.2% 28%  
361 9% 27%  
362 2% 18%  
363 2% 16%  
364 2% 14%  
365 3% 12%  
366 0.5% 9%  
367 2% 8%  
368 0.5% 6%  
369 1.3% 6%  
370 1.1% 5%  
371 0.2% 3%  
372 1.3% 3%  
373 0.9% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.0%  
375 0.3% 0.8%  
376 0.3% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.3% 99.4%  
307 0.3% 99.1%  
308 0.6% 98.8%  
309 0.5% 98%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 2% 97%  
312 0.8% 95%  
313 3% 94%  
314 3% 91%  
315 1.2% 87%  
316 3% 86%  
317 1.5% 83%  
318 3% 82%  
319 7% 79%  
320 0.7% 71%  
321 5% 71%  
322 3% 66%  
323 2% 63%  
324 4% 61%  
325 10% 57%  
326 5% 47% Last Result, Median
327 4% 42%  
328 4% 38%  
329 2% 34%  
330 4% 32%  
331 9% 28%  
332 4% 19%  
333 3% 15%  
334 2% 12%  
335 1.1% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.1% 7%  
338 1.4% 6%  
339 0.9% 4%  
340 1.0% 3%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.6% 1.4%  
345 0.3% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.3% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.4% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.2%  
283 0.5% 98.7%  
284 0.8% 98%  
285 0.5% 97%  
286 0.9% 97%  
287 0.7% 96%  
288 1.1% 95%  
289 3% 94% Last Result
290 0.9% 91%  
291 1.1% 90%  
292 1.2% 89%  
293 2% 88%  
294 1.3% 86%  
295 2% 84%  
296 10% 82%  
297 2% 72%  
298 6% 70%  
299 10% 64%  
300 4% 55% Median
301 4% 50%  
302 6% 47%  
303 4% 41%  
304 2% 37%  
305 5% 35%  
306 3% 30%  
307 2% 27%  
308 3% 25%  
309 3% 22%  
310 4% 19%  
311 4% 15%  
312 1.3% 11%  
313 3% 10%  
314 0.5% 7%  
315 3% 6%  
316 1.0% 4%  
317 0.6% 3%  
318 0.6% 2%  
319 0.5% 1.4%  
320 0.3% 0.9%  
321 0.3% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.3% 99.8%  
278 0.3% 99.5%  
279 1.1% 99.3%  
280 2% 98%  
281 0.6% 96%  
282 2% 95%  
283 4% 93%  
284 0.5% 90%  
285 0.5% 89%  
286 2% 89%  
287 2% 87%  
288 3% 85%  
289 21% 82%  
290 5% 61% Median
291 5% 56%  
292 11% 52%  
293 6% 41%  
294 4% 35%  
295 1.2% 31%  
296 3% 30%  
297 2% 27%  
298 4% 25%  
299 8% 20%  
300 4% 12% Last Result
301 2% 8%  
302 3% 6%  
303 1.1% 3%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0.1% 1.4%  
307 0% 1.3%  
308 0% 1.2%  
309 0.1% 1.2%  
310 0.2% 1.1%  
311 0.1% 0.9%  
312 0.2% 0.8%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.2% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.2% 99.6%  
224 0.6% 99.4%  
225 0.4% 98.8%  
226 0.6% 98%  
227 1.2% 98%  
228 3% 96%  
229 1.2% 93%  
230 1.3% 92%  
231 2% 91%  
232 2% 89%  
233 2% 87%  
234 4% 85%  
235 3% 81%  
236 4% 78%  
237 13% 75%  
238 12% 62% Median
239 1.2% 50%  
240 6% 49%  
241 4% 42%  
242 5% 38%  
243 3% 33%  
244 6% 30%  
245 2% 24%  
246 2% 22%  
247 5% 19%  
248 5% 15%  
249 1.0% 9%  
250 4% 8%  
251 1.1% 5%  
252 1.4% 4%  
253 0.5% 2%  
254 0.5% 2%  
255 0.5% 1.3%  
256 0.1% 0.8%  
257 0.1% 0.7%  
258 0.1% 0.6%  
259 0% 0.4%  
260 0% 0.4%  
261 0.2% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0.1% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.3% 99.8%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.1% 99.4%  
158 0.4% 99.3%  
159 0.5% 98.9%  
160 2% 98%  
161 0.7% 96%  
162 1.1% 96%  
163 2% 95%  
164 0.4% 93%  
165 2% 92%  
166 2% 91%  
167 3% 89%  
168 10% 86%  
169 2% 76%  
170 9% 74%  
171 4% 64%  
172 1.3% 61%  
173 3% 59%  
174 3% 56% Median
175 11% 53%  
176 8% 42%  
177 5% 33%  
178 6% 29%  
179 2% 22%  
180 2% 20%  
181 2% 18%  
182 2% 16%  
183 4% 14%  
184 3% 10%  
185 2% 7%  
186 2% 5%  
187 0.5% 3%  
188 0.3% 2%  
189 0.5% 2%  
190 0.7% 1.5%  
191 0.3% 0.8%  
192 0.2% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.3% 99.8%  
150 0.4% 99.5%  
151 0.4% 99.1%  
152 0.7% 98.7%  
153 0.5% 98%  
154 2% 97%  
155 2% 95%  
156 1.2% 93%  
157 3% 92%  
158 4% 89%  
159 4% 85%  
160 6% 82%  
161 4% 76%  
162 4% 72%  
163 12% 68%  
164 6% 57% Median
165 10% 50%  
166 6% 41%  
167 2% 35%  
168 7% 33%  
169 3% 26%  
170 4% 23%  
171 4% 19%  
172 2% 15%  
173 5% 13%  
174 3% 8%  
175 1.1% 5%  
176 0.5% 3%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.3% 1.3%  
180 0.3% 1.0%  
181 0.2% 0.8%  
182 0.2% 0.5%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations