Opinion Poll by Kantar, 2–8 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.3–32.5% 28.9–32.9% 28.5–33.3% 27.8–34.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.7–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.5–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–17.0% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.2% 6.3–8.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 228 217–243 215–246 213–249 208–259
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 117–137 114–140 112–143 108–148
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 103–121 101–124 98–127 95–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 74–91 72–93 71–95 67–100
Die Linke 69 60 53–67 51–69 50–71 47–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 47–60 46–62 44–64 41–68
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.8%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.7%  
208 0.2% 99.6%  
209 0.2% 99.4%  
210 0.3% 99.2%  
211 0.5% 98.9%  
212 0.5% 98%  
213 0.9% 98%  
214 1.3% 97%  
215 2% 96%  
216 2% 94%  
217 3% 92%  
218 3% 89%  
219 4% 86%  
220 3% 82%  
221 5% 79%  
222 4% 74%  
223 4% 71%  
224 4% 66%  
225 4% 63%  
226 3% 59%  
227 3% 56%  
228 3% 53% Median
229 2% 50%  
230 2% 47%  
231 2% 45%  
232 3% 43%  
233 2% 40%  
234 3% 38%  
235 3% 35%  
236 3% 32%  
237 3% 29%  
238 3% 26%  
239 3% 23%  
240 3% 20%  
241 3% 18%  
242 3% 14%  
243 2% 12%  
244 2% 9%  
245 2% 7%  
246 0.8% 5%  
247 0.8% 5%  
248 0.7% 4%  
249 0.6% 3%  
250 0.4% 2%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.3% 2%  
254 0.2% 1.3%  
255 0.1% 1.1%  
256 0.2% 1.0%  
257 0.1% 0.8%  
258 0.2% 0.7%  
259 0.1% 0.5%  
260 0.1% 0.5%  
261 0.2% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.4% 99.4%  
110 0.4% 99.0%  
111 0.6% 98.6%  
112 1.0% 98%  
113 1.3% 97%  
114 1.1% 96%  
115 1.5% 95%  
116 2% 93%  
117 2% 91%  
118 2% 89%  
119 3% 87%  
120 4% 83%  
121 4% 80%  
122 4% 75%  
123 5% 71%  
124 5% 66%  
125 5% 61%  
126 5% 56%  
127 5% 52% Median
128 5% 46%  
129 4% 42%  
130 4% 37%  
131 5% 33%  
132 4% 28%  
133 4% 24%  
134 4% 20%  
135 3% 16%  
136 2% 13%  
137 2% 11%  
138 2% 9%  
139 1.5% 7%  
140 1.5% 6%  
141 0.7% 4%  
142 0.8% 3%  
143 0.6% 3%  
144 0.7% 2%  
145 0.4% 1.3%  
146 0.2% 0.9%  
147 0.2% 0.7%  
148 0.1% 0.5%  
149 0.2% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.3% 99.5%  
96 0.3% 99.3%  
97 0.6% 98.9%  
98 0.8% 98%  
99 0.9% 97%  
100 2% 97%  
101 2% 95%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 92%  
104 3% 89%  
105 3% 86%  
106 5% 83%  
107 4% 78%  
108 5% 74%  
109 6% 70%  
110 5% 64%  
111 6% 59%  
112 6% 53% Median
113 5% 47%  
114 5% 42%  
115 5% 37%  
116 4% 31%  
117 6% 27%  
118 3% 22%  
119 4% 19%  
120 3% 15%  
121 2% 12%  
122 2% 10%  
123 1.3% 7%  
124 1.4% 6%  
125 1.2% 5%  
126 0.7% 4%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.3% 1.5%  
130 0.4% 1.2%  
131 0.2% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 0.6% 99.1%  
70 0.9% 98%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 92%  
75 3% 90%  
76 4% 87%  
77 4% 83%  
78 5% 78%  
79 6% 74%  
80 6% 68%  
81 6% 61%  
82 6% 55% Median
83 6% 49%  
84 6% 43%  
85 5% 37%  
86 5% 31%  
87 5% 26%  
88 5% 21%  
89 3% 16%  
90 3% 13%  
91 2% 10%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.2% 6%  
94 1.4% 5% Last Result
95 1.2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.5% 99.3%  
49 0.9% 98.7%  
50 1.2% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 3% 95%  
53 2% 92%  
54 5% 89%  
55 6% 85%  
56 5% 79%  
57 6% 74%  
58 8% 68%  
59 9% 60%  
60 6% 52% Median
61 7% 45%  
62 8% 38%  
63 6% 30%  
64 5% 24%  
65 5% 20%  
66 3% 15%  
67 3% 12%  
68 2% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.4% 4%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.5%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.5%  
43 0.7% 99.0%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95% Last Result
47 4% 93%  
48 4% 89%  
49 6% 85%  
50 7% 79%  
51 7% 72%  
52 7% 65%  
53 7% 58%  
54 6% 50% Median
55 8% 44%  
56 7% 36%  
57 6% 29%  
58 5% 24%  
59 5% 18%  
60 4% 14%  
61 3% 10%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0.4% 96%  
38 3% 96%  
39 4% 93%  
40 4% 89%  
41 5% 85%  
42 8% 79%  
43 8% 72%  
44 8% 63%  
45 7% 55% Median
46 9% 48%  
47 8% 40%  
48 8% 31%  
49 5% 23%  
50 5% 19%  
51 4% 14%  
52 3% 10%  
53 2% 7%  
54 1.4% 4%  
55 0.9% 3%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.5% 1.2%  
58 0.2% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 522 100% 511–534 507–540 504–554 499–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 442–467 438–470 435–473 425–479
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 440 100% 427–453 422–456 419–459 410–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 410 100% 397–424 394–429 390–436 385–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 410 100% 396–423 392–427 388–430 379–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 395 100% 382–410 379–414 376–420 371–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 366 84% 353–380 349–385 347–390 340–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 328 0.3% 314–341 309–345 304–348 291–354
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 299 0% 286–313 282–317 279–321 274–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 284 0% 270–297 264–299 257–303 243–308
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 239 0% 227–252 223–256 220–259 215–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 161–183 158–186 156–190 151–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 157 0% 146–167 141–171 122–173 110–178

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.9%  
496 0.1% 99.8%  
497 0.1% 99.8%  
498 0.1% 99.7%  
499 0.2% 99.6%  
500 0.2% 99.4%  
501 0.3% 99.2%  
502 0.4% 99.0%  
503 0.5% 98.6%  
504 0.7% 98%  
505 0.6% 97%  
506 1.0% 97%  
507 1.1% 96%  
508 2% 95%  
509 1.3% 93%  
510 2% 92%  
511 2% 90%  
512 2% 88%  
513 2% 86%  
514 4% 84%  
515 3% 79%  
516 4% 76%  
517 4% 72%  
518 4% 69%  
519 5% 64%  
520 5% 59%  
521 5% 55% Median
522 4% 50%  
523 4% 46%  
524 3% 42%  
525 4% 38%  
526 4% 34%  
527 5% 30%  
528 3% 25%  
529 2% 22%  
530 2% 20%  
531 3% 17%  
532 2% 14%  
533 2% 12%  
534 1.4% 10%  
535 2% 9%  
536 0.6% 7%  
537 0.7% 7%  
538 0.4% 6%  
539 0.6% 6%  
540 0.4% 5%  
541 0.4% 5%  
542 0.2% 4%  
543 0.1% 4%  
544 0.1% 4%  
545 0.2% 4%  
546 0.1% 4%  
547 0.1% 4%  
548 0.1% 3%  
549 0.1% 3%  
550 0.2% 3%  
551 0.2% 3%  
552 0.1% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0.2% 3%  
555 0.1% 2%  
556 0.3% 2%  
557 0.1% 2%  
558 0.3% 2%  
559 0.1% 2%  
560 0.2% 2%  
561 0.2% 1.4%  
562 0.2% 1.2%  
563 0.1% 1.0%  
564 0.1% 0.9%  
565 0.1% 0.8%  
566 0.1% 0.7%  
567 0.2% 0.6%  
568 0.1% 0.4%  
569 0.1% 0.3%  
570 0.1% 0.3%  
571 0.1% 0.2%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0.1%  
576 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.8%  
421 0% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.6%  
425 0.1% 99.5%  
426 0.1% 99.4%  
427 0.1% 99.3%  
428 0.2% 99.2%  
429 0.2% 99.1%  
430 0.2% 98.9%  
431 0.3% 98.7%  
432 0.3% 98%  
433 0.3% 98%  
434 0.3% 98%  
435 0.8% 98%  
436 0.7% 97%  
437 0.9% 96%  
438 1.0% 95%  
439 1.0% 94%  
440 1.3% 93%  
441 1.3% 92%  
442 2% 91%  
443 2% 89%  
444 2% 86%  
445 3% 85%  
446 2% 82%  
447 3% 80%  
448 3% 77%  
449 4% 74%  
450 4% 70%  
451 3% 66%  
452 4% 63%  
453 4% 58%  
454 4% 55% Median
455 3% 50%  
456 6% 48%  
457 5% 42%  
458 4% 37%  
459 3% 34%  
460 4% 30%  
461 3% 27%  
462 3% 23%  
463 3% 20%  
464 2% 17%  
465 2% 15%  
466 2% 13%  
467 2% 11%  
468 2% 9%  
469 0.8% 7%  
470 1.2% 6%  
471 0.9% 5%  
472 0.9% 4%  
473 0.5% 3%  
474 0.5% 2%  
475 0.4% 2%  
476 0.3% 1.3%  
477 0.3% 1.0%  
478 0.2% 0.7%  
479 0.1% 0.5%  
480 0.1% 0.4%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0.1% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.8%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0% 99.5%  
411 0.1% 99.5%  
412 0.2% 99.4%  
413 0.1% 99.2%  
414 0.3% 99.1%  
415 0.1% 98.8%  
416 0.2% 98.6%  
417 0.4% 98%  
418 0.3% 98%  
419 0.5% 98%  
420 0.6% 97%  
421 0.7% 97%  
422 0.9% 96%  
423 0.7% 95%  
424 1.0% 94%  
425 2% 93%  
426 1.2% 92%  
427 2% 90%  
428 2% 88%  
429 2% 86%  
430 2% 84%  
431 3% 82%  
432 3% 79%  
433 3% 76%  
434 4% 73%  
435 3% 69%  
436 4% 66%  
437 4% 62%  
438 4% 58%  
439 4% 55% Median
440 4% 50%  
441 4% 47%  
442 3% 43%  
443 3% 39%  
444 4% 36%  
445 4% 32%  
446 3% 29%  
447 3% 26%  
448 3% 22%  
449 2% 19%  
450 3% 17%  
451 2% 14%  
452 2% 13%  
453 2% 10%  
454 1.4% 9%  
455 1.3% 7%  
456 1.4% 6%  
457 0.9% 4%  
458 0.8% 4%  
459 0.6% 3%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.4% 2%  
462 0.3% 1.3%  
463 0.3% 1.0%  
464 0.2% 0.7%  
465 0.1% 0.5%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.7%  
385 0.2% 99.6%  
386 0.2% 99.4%  
387 0.3% 99.2%  
388 0.3% 98.9%  
389 0.7% 98.7%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 0.6% 97%  
392 0.9% 97%  
393 0.8% 96%  
394 1.2% 95%  
395 1.4% 94%  
396 2% 93%  
397 2% 91%  
398 2% 89%  
399 2% 88%  
400 3% 86%  
401 2% 83%  
402 4% 81%  
403 3% 77%  
404 3% 73%  
405 5% 71%  
406 4% 66%  
407 3% 62%  
408 4% 59%  
409 4% 55% Median
410 3% 51%  
411 4% 48%  
412 3% 44%  
413 4% 40%  
414 4% 36%  
415 4% 32%  
416 3% 28%  
417 3% 26%  
418 3% 22%  
419 3% 20%  
420 2% 17%  
421 2% 15%  
422 1.4% 13%  
423 1.4% 12%  
424 1.4% 10%  
425 1.2% 9%  
426 0.8% 8%  
427 0.8% 7%  
428 0.7% 6%  
429 0.5% 5%  
430 0.6% 5%  
431 0.4% 4%  
432 0.4% 4%  
433 0.3% 3%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.2% 3%  
436 0.3% 3%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.2% 2%  
440 0.2% 2%  
441 0.1% 2%  
442 0.2% 1.5%  
443 0.1% 1.2%  
444 0.1% 1.1%  
445 0.1% 1.0%  
446 0.1% 0.9%  
447 0.1% 0.8%  
448 0% 0.7%  
449 0.1% 0.6%  
450 0.1% 0.5%  
451 0.2% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0% 99.6%  
378 0% 99.6%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.1% 99.5%  
381 0.1% 99.3%  
382 0.1% 99.2%  
383 0.1% 99.1%  
384 0.1% 98.9%  
385 0.4% 98.8%  
386 0.3% 98%  
387 0.3% 98%  
388 0.3% 98%  
389 0.5% 97%  
390 0.4% 97%  
391 0.6% 97%  
392 1.0% 96%  
393 0.9% 95%  
394 1.0% 94%  
395 1.4% 93%  
396 2% 92%  
397 1.3% 90%  
398 2% 89%  
399 3% 87%  
400 1.3% 84%  
401 3% 83%  
402 3% 80%  
403 3% 77%  
404 2% 74%  
405 5% 72%  
406 3% 67%  
407 4% 64%  
408 3% 60%  
409 4% 57% Median
410 4% 53%  
411 4% 49%  
412 4% 44%  
413 3% 40%  
414 4% 37%  
415 3% 33%  
416 3% 30%  
417 3% 27%  
418 3% 24%  
419 3% 21%  
420 3% 18% Last Result
421 2% 15%  
422 2% 13%  
423 2% 11%  
424 2% 9%  
425 1.3% 7%  
426 1.0% 6%  
427 1.0% 5%  
428 1.0% 4%  
429 0.6% 3%  
430 0.5% 3%  
431 0.5% 2%  
432 0.4% 2%  
433 0.3% 1.1%  
434 0.2% 0.9%  
435 0.2% 0.6%  
436 0.1% 0.5%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0.1% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.2% 99.5%  
372 0.3% 99.3%  
373 0.3% 99.0%  
374 0.5% 98.7%  
375 0.7% 98%  
376 0.8% 98%  
377 0.7% 97%  
378 1.0% 96%  
379 1.3% 95%  
380 1.0% 94%  
381 2% 93%  
382 2% 91%  
383 2% 89%  
384 1.5% 87%  
385 2% 86%  
386 3% 83%  
387 3% 81%  
388 4% 77%  
389 4% 73%  
390 3% 70%  
391 4% 67%  
392 4% 63%  
393 5% 59%  
394 4% 54% Median
395 4% 51%  
396 3% 47%  
397 3% 44%  
398 4% 40%  
399 3% 37% Last Result
400 3% 33%  
401 2% 30%  
402 3% 28%  
403 3% 25%  
404 3% 23%  
405 2% 20%  
406 2% 18%  
407 1.3% 15%  
408 2% 14%  
409 2% 12%  
410 2% 10%  
411 1.1% 9%  
412 1.2% 8%  
413 0.8% 6%  
414 0.7% 6%  
415 0.6% 5%  
416 0.4% 4%  
417 0.5% 4%  
418 0.2% 3%  
419 0.3% 3%  
420 0.3% 3%  
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.3% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 1.4%  
428 0.2% 1.3%  
429 0.1% 1.1%  
430 0.1% 1.0%  
431 0.1% 0.9%  
432 0.1% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0.2% 0.6%  
435 0% 0.4%  
436 0% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.2% 99.8%  
340 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
341 0.1% 99.4%  
342 0.1% 99.3%  
343 0.4% 99.3%  
344 0.7% 98.8%  
345 0.4% 98%  
346 0.1% 98%  
347 0.7% 98%  
348 1.4% 97%  
349 2% 95%  
350 0.7% 94%  
351 0.3% 93%  
352 2% 93%  
353 3% 90%  
354 3% 88%  
355 0.9% 84% Majority
356 0.9% 84%  
357 4% 83%  
358 6% 79%  
359 3% 73%  
360 0.8% 70%  
361 3% 69%  
362 5% 66%  
363 6% 61%  
364 2% 55% Median
365 1.4% 53%  
366 5% 51%  
367 5% 47%  
368 5% 42%  
369 1.1% 37%  
370 2% 36%  
371 5% 34%  
372 4% 28%  
373 2% 24%  
374 0.5% 22%  
375 2% 21%  
376 4% 19%  
377 3% 15%  
378 0.6% 12%  
379 0.7% 11%  
380 2% 11%  
381 1.5% 9%  
382 0.9% 7%  
383 0.3% 6%  
384 0.5% 6%  
385 1.1% 6%  
386 0.8% 5%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 0.1% 3%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.3% 3%  
391 0.3% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.1% 2%  
394 0.2% 2%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.3% 1.4%  
397 0.1% 1.1%  
398 0.1% 1.0%  
399 0.1% 0.9%  
400 0.1% 0.8%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0% 0.5%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.2% 99.4%  
294 0.1% 99.2%  
295 0.2% 99.2%  
296 0.1% 99.0%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0.2% 98.8%  
299 0.1% 98.6%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.2% 98%  
302 0.2% 98%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.4% 97%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.5% 97%  
308 0.5% 96%  
309 0.8% 96%  
310 1.2% 95%  
311 0.4% 94%  
312 2% 93%  
313 1.0% 92%  
314 2% 91%  
315 2% 89%  
316 1.0% 86%  
317 4% 85%  
318 2% 81%  
319 3% 80%  
320 4% 77%  
321 1.5% 73%  
322 5% 72%  
323 2% 66%  
324 3% 64%  
325 4% 61%  
326 2% 57% Last Result
327 4% 55% Median
328 4% 50%  
329 3% 47%  
330 4% 44%  
331 3% 40%  
332 3% 37%  
333 4% 34%  
334 2% 30%  
335 3% 27%  
336 3% 25%  
337 2% 21%  
338 3% 20%  
339 3% 17%  
340 1.2% 14%  
341 3% 13%  
342 0.8% 9%  
343 2% 9%  
344 2% 7%  
345 0.8% 5%  
346 1.4% 5%  
347 0.3% 3%  
348 0.8% 3%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.4% 1.3%  
352 0.2% 0.9%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.5%  
275 0.2% 99.4%  
276 0.3% 99.1%  
277 0.4% 98.9%  
278 0.5% 98%  
279 0.5% 98%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 1.0% 97%  
282 1.0% 96%  
283 1.0% 95%  
284 1.3% 94%  
285 2% 93%  
286 2% 91%  
287 2% 89%  
288 2% 87%  
289 3% 85% Last Result
290 3% 82%  
291 3% 79%  
292 3% 76%  
293 3% 73%  
294 3% 70%  
295 4% 67%  
296 3% 63%  
297 4% 60%  
298 4% 56%  
299 4% 51% Median
300 4% 47%  
301 3% 43%  
302 4% 40%  
303 3% 36%  
304 5% 33%  
305 2% 28%  
306 3% 26%  
307 3% 23%  
308 3% 20%  
309 1.3% 17%  
310 3% 16%  
311 2% 13%  
312 1.3% 11%  
313 2% 10%  
314 1.4% 8%  
315 1.0% 7%  
316 0.9% 6%  
317 1.0% 5%  
318 0.6% 4%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.3% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.2%  
326 0.1% 1.1%  
327 0.1% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.8%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.2% 99.5%  
245 0% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.3%  
247 0% 99.2%  
248 0.2% 99.1%  
249 0.2% 98.9%  
250 0.1% 98.7%  
251 0.1% 98.6%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.2% 98%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.1% 98%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 0.2% 97%  
260 0.2% 97%  
261 0.4% 97%  
262 0.4% 96%  
263 0.5% 96%  
264 0.3% 95%  
265 0.7% 95%  
266 0.8% 94%  
267 1.0% 93%  
268 1.0% 92%  
269 0.9% 91%  
270 2% 91%  
271 2% 89%  
272 2% 87%  
273 2% 85%  
274 3% 83%  
275 3% 81%  
276 3% 77%  
277 2% 75%  
278 3% 72%  
279 5% 69%  
280 3% 65%  
281 3% 61%  
282 3% 58%  
283 4% 55%  
284 4% 51% Median
285 4% 47%  
286 4% 43%  
287 3% 40%  
288 5% 37%  
289 3% 32%  
290 4% 29%  
291 3% 26%  
292 3% 23%  
293 3% 19%  
294 3% 17%  
295 2% 14%  
296 2% 12%  
297 2% 10%  
298 2% 8%  
299 2% 7%  
300 0.6% 5% Last Result
301 0.8% 4%  
302 1.0% 4%  
303 0.7% 3%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.4% 1.3%  
307 0.3% 0.9%  
308 0.2% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.7%  
215 0.2% 99.6%  
216 0.3% 99.4%  
217 0.1% 99.2%  
218 0.3% 99.0%  
219 0.8% 98.7%  
220 0.7% 98% Last Result
221 0.4% 97%  
222 0.4% 97%  
223 2% 96%  
224 2% 95%  
225 1.3% 93%  
226 1.0% 91%  
227 2% 90%  
228 3% 88%  
229 2% 86%  
230 2% 83%  
231 5% 82%  
232 4% 77%  
233 3% 73%  
234 1.3% 70%  
235 3% 68%  
236 6% 65%  
237 6% 60%  
238 3% 54%  
239 2% 51% Median
240 4% 49%  
241 5% 45%  
242 3% 39%  
243 3% 36%  
244 4% 34%  
245 5% 29%  
246 2% 24%  
247 2% 22%  
248 3% 20%  
249 3% 17%  
250 3% 14%  
251 0.8% 12%  
252 1.3% 11%  
253 2% 9%  
254 1.1% 7%  
255 0.7% 6%  
256 1.4% 5%  
257 0.7% 4%  
258 0.6% 3%  
259 0.3% 3%  
260 0.3% 2%  
261 0.6% 2%  
262 0.3% 1.5%  
263 0.3% 1.2%  
264 0.1% 0.9%  
265 0.2% 0.8%  
266 0.1% 0.6%  
267 0.1% 0.5%  
268 0.1% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.4%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.2% 99.4%  
153 0.4% 99.2%  
154 0.4% 98.8%  
155 0.5% 98%  
156 0.8% 98%  
157 0.6% 97%  
158 2% 96%  
159 1.3% 95%  
160 2% 94%  
161 2% 92%  
162 2% 90%  
163 2% 87%  
164 2% 85%  
165 5% 83%  
166 3% 78%  
167 5% 75%  
168 4% 70%  
169 3% 66%  
170 7% 63%  
171 3% 56%  
172 6% 53% Median
173 5% 47%  
174 4% 42%  
175 4% 38%  
176 4% 34%  
177 5% 30%  
178 3% 25%  
179 4% 23%  
180 2% 18%  
181 2% 16%  
182 3% 14%  
183 1.3% 11%  
184 3% 10%  
185 1.1% 7%  
186 1.2% 6%  
187 1.0% 5%  
188 0.7% 4%  
189 0.7% 3%  
190 0.6% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.4%  
193 0.2% 1.2%  
194 0.2% 0.9%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.1% 99.6%  
111 0% 99.5%  
112 0.1% 99.4%  
113 0.1% 99.3%  
114 0.3% 99.2%  
115 0.1% 99.0%  
116 0.2% 98.9%  
117 0.3% 98.6%  
118 0.1% 98%  
119 0.3% 98%  
120 0.2% 98%  
121 0.1% 98%  
122 0.3% 98%  
123 0.1% 97%  
124 0.1% 97%  
125 0.2% 97%  
126 0.1% 97%  
127 0.2% 97%  
128 0.1% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0.1% 97%  
131 0.1% 96%  
132 0.1% 96%  
133 0.1% 96%  
134 0.1% 96%  
135 0.1% 96%  
136 0.1% 96%  
137 0.2% 96%  
138 0.2% 96%  
139 0.2% 96%  
140 0.3% 95%  
141 0.5% 95%  
142 0.8% 94%  
143 0.9% 94%  
144 1.0% 93%  
145 1.1% 92%  
146 2% 91%  
147 2% 89%  
148 2% 87%  
149 3% 85%  
150 3% 82%  
151 3% 79%  
152 4% 76%  
153 4% 71%  
154 5% 67%  
155 5% 63%  
156 4% 58%  
157 5% 53% Median
158 4% 48%  
159 5% 44%  
160 5% 38%  
161 5% 34%  
162 3% 29%  
163 4% 25%  
164 3% 21%  
165 3% 18%  
166 3% 15%  
167 2% 12%  
168 2% 10%  
169 2% 8%  
170 1.1% 6%  
171 1.1% 5%  
172 0.9% 4%  
173 0.6% 3%  
174 0.5% 2%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.4% 1.4%  
177 0.3% 1.0%  
178 0.2% 0.7%  
179 0.1% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations