Opinion Poll by Forsa, 6–10 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.6–32.3% 29.2–32.7% 28.9–33.0% 28.2–33.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.5% 16.3–19.8% 15.8–20.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.2% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 235 225–246 222–249 219–252 215–259
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 129–146 126–149 124–151 120–156
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 107 99–115 97–117 95–119 92–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–83 68–85 66–87 64–91
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 49–61 47–62 46–64 44–67
Die Linke 69 53 48–59 46–61 45–63 43–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–51 39–53 38–55 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.2% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.5%  
216 0.3% 99.4%  
217 0.3% 99.1%  
218 0.6% 98.8%  
219 0.8% 98%  
220 0.8% 97%  
221 1.0% 97%  
222 1.3% 96%  
223 2% 94%  
224 2% 93%  
225 3% 91%  
226 2% 88%  
227 3% 86%  
228 3% 83%  
229 4% 80%  
230 4% 76%  
231 5% 72%  
232 4% 67%  
233 4% 63%  
234 5% 60%  
235 7% 55% Median
236 5% 48%  
237 5% 43%  
238 4% 38%  
239 3% 34%  
240 3% 31%  
241 6% 28%  
242 4% 22%  
243 2% 18%  
244 3% 15%  
245 2% 13%  
246 2% 11%  
247 2% 9%  
248 2% 7%  
249 0.9% 5%  
250 0.9% 4%  
251 0.6% 4%  
252 0.6% 3%  
253 0.5% 2%  
254 0.5% 2%  
255 0.3% 1.4%  
256 0.2% 1.1%  
257 0.2% 0.9%  
258 0.1% 0.7%  
259 0.1% 0.6%  
260 0.1% 0.5%  
261 0% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.3% 99.7%  
121 0.3% 99.5%  
122 0.4% 99.2%  
123 0.8% 98.8%  
124 0.7% 98%  
125 1.1% 97%  
126 2% 96%  
127 1.3% 95%  
128 2% 93%  
129 4% 91%  
130 3% 87%  
131 4% 84%  
132 5% 80%  
133 3% 74%  
134 6% 71%  
135 5% 65%  
136 4% 60%  
137 9% 55% Median
138 6% 47%  
139 4% 40%  
140 6% 36%  
141 4% 30%  
142 3% 26%  
143 5% 22%  
144 3% 18%  
145 4% 15%  
146 2% 11%  
147 2% 9%  
148 1.5% 7%  
149 1.4% 5%  
150 0.7% 4%  
151 0.8% 3%  
152 0.8% 2%  
153 0.5% 2%  
154 0.3% 1.2%  
155 0.2% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.2% 99.6%  
93 0.4% 99.3%  
94 0.7% 98.9%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 1.2% 97%  
97 2% 96%  
98 2% 93%  
99 3% 91%  
100 4% 88%  
101 4% 85%  
102 5% 80%  
103 5% 76%  
104 6% 70%  
105 4% 64%  
106 9% 60%  
107 5% 51% Median
108 6% 47%  
109 8% 40%  
110 5% 33%  
111 5% 28%  
112 5% 22%  
113 4% 18%  
114 3% 14%  
115 2% 10%  
116 2% 8%  
117 2% 6%  
118 1.1% 5%  
119 1.2% 4%  
120 0.6% 2%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.2%  
123 0.2% 0.8%  
124 0.2% 0.6%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 0.7% 99.2%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 4% 91%  
71 5% 87%  
72 5% 82%  
73 7% 77%  
74 7% 70%  
75 8% 63%  
76 6% 55% Median
77 8% 48%  
78 7% 40%  
79 6% 33%  
80 5% 27%  
81 6% 22%  
82 3% 16%  
83 3% 13%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 1.4% 5%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 1.0% 99.0%  
46 2% 98% Last Result
47 3% 96%  
48 3% 93%  
49 5% 90%  
50 6% 85%  
51 7% 80%  
52 8% 73%  
53 8% 65%  
54 8% 56% Median
55 7% 48%  
56 9% 41%  
57 7% 32%  
58 6% 26%  
59 6% 20%  
60 4% 14%  
61 4% 10%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.5% 4%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.7% 99.1%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 6% 88%  
50 7% 81%  
51 6% 74%  
52 8% 68%  
53 11% 59% Median
54 8% 48%  
55 7% 40%  
56 7% 33%  
57 8% 26%  
58 5% 19%  
59 4% 13%  
60 3% 10%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 3%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 0.5% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 5% 91%  
42 7% 87%  
43 9% 80%  
44 8% 71%  
45 10% 63%  
46 10% 54% Median
47 8% 43%  
48 9% 35%  
49 8% 27%  
50 5% 19%  
51 5% 14%  
52 3% 10%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 534 100% 524–543 521–547 518–554 514–576
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 472 100% 461–483 458–485 455–488 447–493
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 443 100% 430–453 427–455 425–457 415–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 427 100% 415–438 413–441 410–448 405–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 412 100% 400–422 396–425 393–428 382–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 397 100% 385–408 382–412 379–417 374–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 366 91% 355–377 352–381 349–385 344–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 335 1.0% 324–346 320–349 315–352 302–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 297 0% 287–309 284–313 281–316 276–327
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 290 0% 278–301 274–304 270–306 254–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 243 0% 234–255 231–258 228–262 224–270
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 161 0% 151–170 148–173 147–176 143–181
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 153 0% 143–162 140–164 132–166 109–171

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 99.9%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.8%  
513 0.1% 99.7%  
514 0.2% 99.6%  
515 0.3% 99.3%  
516 0.4% 99.1%  
517 0.4% 98.7%  
518 0.9% 98%  
519 0.7% 97%  
520 2% 97%  
521 1.1% 95%  
522 2% 94%  
523 1.5% 93%  
524 3% 91%  
525 2% 88%  
526 5% 86%  
527 2% 81%  
528 6% 79%  
529 3% 73%  
530 6% 70%  
531 4% 64%  
532 6% 60%  
533 5% 55% Median
534 7% 50%  
535 3% 43%  
536 7% 40%  
537 3% 33%  
538 5% 31%  
539 6% 26%  
540 4% 20%  
541 3% 16%  
542 2% 13%  
543 1.2% 10%  
544 2% 9%  
545 0.8% 8%  
546 1.4% 7%  
547 0.7% 5%  
548 1.0% 5%  
549 0.3% 4%  
550 0.4% 3%  
551 0.2% 3%  
552 0.1% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0.1% 3%  
555 0.1% 2%  
556 0% 2%  
557 0% 2%  
558 0% 2%  
559 0% 2%  
560 0% 2%  
561 0% 2%  
562 0.1% 2%  
563 0.1% 2%  
564 0.1% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 0.1% 2%  
567 0.1% 2%  
568 0.1% 2%  
569 0.1% 2%  
570 0.1% 1.4%  
571 0.1% 1.4%  
572 0.1% 1.2%  
573 0.2% 1.1%  
574 0.2% 0.9%  
575 0.1% 0.7%  
576 0.2% 0.6%  
577 0.1% 0.4%  
578 0.1% 0.4%  
579 0% 0.3%  
580 0% 0.3%  
581 0.1% 0.2%  
582 0% 0.2%  
583 0.1% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.7%  
446 0.1% 99.7%  
447 0.1% 99.6%  
448 0.1% 99.5%  
449 0.1% 99.4%  
450 0.2% 99.2%  
451 0.3% 99.0%  
452 0.2% 98.8%  
453 0.3% 98.6%  
454 0.4% 98%  
455 0.6% 98%  
456 0.7% 97%  
457 0.8% 97%  
458 1.2% 96%  
459 1.3% 95%  
460 2% 93%  
461 2% 92%  
462 2% 90%  
463 2% 87%  
464 3% 86%  
465 4% 83%  
466 3% 79%  
467 4% 76%  
468 3% 72%  
469 4% 68%  
470 5% 64%  
471 5% 60%  
472 5% 55% Median
473 5% 49%  
474 6% 44%  
475 4% 38%  
476 4% 35%  
477 6% 31%  
478 4% 25%  
479 3% 21%  
480 3% 18%  
481 2% 15%  
482 2% 13%  
483 2% 11%  
484 2% 8%  
485 1.3% 6%  
486 1.1% 5%  
487 1.0% 4%  
488 0.7% 3%  
489 0.6% 2%  
490 0.4% 1.4%  
491 0.3% 1.1%  
492 0.3% 0.8%  
493 0.2% 0.5%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0.1% 0.3%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.1% 99.6%  
415 0% 99.5%  
416 0.1% 99.5%  
417 0.1% 99.4%  
418 0.2% 99.4%  
419 0.2% 99.2%  
420 0.4% 99.0%  
421 0.5% 98.6%  
422 0.3% 98%  
423 0.1% 98%  
424 0.2% 98%  
425 0.5% 98%  
426 1.2% 97%  
427 1.3% 96%  
428 2% 94%  
429 2% 93%  
430 2% 91%  
431 1.2% 89%  
432 1.1% 88%  
433 1.0% 87%  
434 1.4% 86%  
435 4% 84%  
436 7% 80%  
437 7% 73%  
438 5% 66%  
439 2% 61%  
440 2% 59%  
441 2% 57%  
442 2% 55% Median
443 4% 53%  
444 6% 49%  
445 8% 43%  
446 9% 35%  
447 5% 26%  
448 2% 21%  
449 0.8% 19%  
450 1.3% 18%  
451 3% 17%  
452 3% 14%  
453 2% 11%  
454 3% 9%  
455 2% 6%  
456 1.0% 4%  
457 0.6% 3%  
458 0.2% 2%  
459 0.3% 2%  
460 0.3% 2%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.5% 1.0%  
463 0.2% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.2% 99.6%  
406 0.3% 99.4%  
407 0.2% 99.1%  
408 0.3% 98.9%  
409 0.6% 98.6%  
410 1.0% 98%  
411 1.0% 97%  
412 0.6% 96%  
413 0.8% 96%  
414 2% 95%  
415 3% 92%  
416 1.5% 90%  
417 1.1% 88%  
418 3% 87%  
419 5% 84%  
420 3% 79%  
421 2% 76%  
422 5% 75%  
423 6% 70%  
424 5% 64%  
425 2% 59%  
426 4% 56% Median
427 6% 53%  
428 8% 46%  
429 3% 39%  
430 2% 36%  
431 7% 34%  
432 4% 27%  
433 3% 23%  
434 2% 20%  
435 2% 19%  
436 4% 16%  
437 2% 12%  
438 1.1% 10%  
439 1.4% 9%  
440 2% 8%  
441 1.3% 6%  
442 0.5% 5%  
443 0.4% 4%  
444 0.6% 4%  
445 0.6% 3%  
446 0.2% 3%  
447 0.2% 3%  
448 0.2% 3%  
449 0.2% 2%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0.2% 2%  
452 0.1% 2%  
453 0.1% 2%  
454 0.1% 2%  
455 0.2% 1.5%  
456 0.1% 1.3%  
457 0.2% 1.2%  
458 0.1% 1.0%  
459 0.1% 0.9%  
460 0.1% 0.9%  
461 0.1% 0.7%  
462 0.1% 0.6%  
463 0.1% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0.1% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0% 99.6%  
382 0.1% 99.6%  
383 0.1% 99.5%  
384 0.1% 99.4%  
385 0.1% 99.3%  
386 0.2% 99.2%  
387 0.2% 99.0%  
388 0.1% 98.8%  
389 0.2% 98.7%  
390 0.4% 98%  
391 0.2% 98%  
392 0.3% 98%  
393 0.4% 98%  
394 0.4% 97%  
395 0.7% 97%  
396 1.2% 96%  
397 0.9% 95%  
398 1.0% 94%  
399 2% 93%  
400 1.3% 91%  
401 3% 90%  
402 2% 87%  
403 3% 85%  
404 3% 82%  
405 3% 79%  
406 4% 76%  
407 4% 72%  
408 3% 68%  
409 5% 65%  
410 4% 60%  
411 4% 57% Median
412 6% 52%  
413 6% 47%  
414 5% 41%  
415 5% 36%  
416 3% 30%  
417 4% 27%  
418 3% 23%  
419 2% 20%  
420 3% 18% Last Result
421 3% 14%  
422 2% 11%  
423 2% 10%  
424 1.5% 8%  
425 1.1% 6%  
426 1.1% 5%  
427 1.0% 4%  
428 0.6% 3%  
429 0.8% 2%  
430 0.4% 1.4%  
431 0.3% 1.1%  
432 0.3% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.5%  
434 0.2% 0.4%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0.1% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.2% 99.5%  
376 0.2% 99.3%  
377 0.5% 99.0%  
378 0.4% 98%  
379 0.7% 98%  
380 0.5% 97%  
381 2% 97%  
382 0.7% 95%  
383 2% 95%  
384 2% 93%  
385 2% 91%  
386 2% 89%  
387 3% 87%  
388 2% 84%  
389 5% 82%  
390 2% 78%  
391 4% 75%  
392 3% 71%  
393 5% 68%  
394 5% 64%  
395 5% 59%  
396 3% 54% Median
397 7% 51%  
398 3% 44%  
399 5% 41% Last Result
400 4% 36%  
401 4% 32%  
402 2% 27%  
403 4% 25%  
404 3% 21%  
405 3% 18%  
406 2% 14%  
407 2% 12%  
408 2% 11%  
409 1.1% 8%  
410 0.8% 7%  
411 1.0% 6%  
412 1.0% 5%  
413 0.7% 4%  
414 0.5% 4%  
415 0.3% 3%  
416 0.3% 3%  
417 0.2% 3%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.3% 2%  
421 0.2% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.1% 1.3%  
424 0.1% 1.2%  
425 0% 1.1%  
426 0.1% 1.1%  
427 0.2% 1.0%  
428 0% 0.9%  
429 0.1% 0.8%  
430 0.2% 0.7%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0.1% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.4%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9% Last Result
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.6%  
345 0.3% 99.4%  
346 0.3% 99.2%  
347 0.4% 98.8%  
348 0.8% 98%  
349 0.7% 98%  
350 0.7% 97%  
351 0.8% 96%  
352 1.4% 95%  
353 2% 94%  
354 1.3% 92%  
355 2% 91% Majority
356 3% 89%  
357 3% 86%  
358 3% 83%  
359 3% 80%  
360 4% 77%  
361 3% 73%  
362 3% 70%  
363 4% 67%  
364 6% 63%  
365 5% 57% Median
366 3% 52%  
367 7% 49%  
368 4% 42%  
369 4% 38%  
370 5% 34%  
371 4% 29%  
372 3% 25%  
373 3% 22%  
374 3% 20%  
375 3% 17%  
376 2% 14%  
377 1.5% 11%  
378 2% 10%  
379 1.3% 8%  
380 1.1% 7%  
381 0.7% 5%  
382 0.8% 5%  
383 0.6% 4%  
384 0.4% 3%  
385 0.5% 3%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.4%  
391 0.1% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.1% 1.1%  
394 0.1% 0.9%  
395 0.1% 0.8%  
396 0.2% 0.8%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.1% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 99.2%  
306 0% 99.1%  
307 0.1% 99.0%  
308 0.1% 98.9%  
309 0.1% 98.8%  
310 0.2% 98.7%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.3% 98%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 0.6% 97%  
318 0.7% 96%  
319 0.6% 96%  
320 1.0% 95%  
321 0.9% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 1.1% 92%  
324 2% 91%  
325 4% 89%  
326 2% 85% Last Result
327 3% 83%  
328 3% 80%  
329 4% 78%  
330 4% 74%  
331 3% 70%  
332 4% 67%  
333 5% 64%  
334 5% 59%  
335 5% 54% Median
336 3% 49%  
337 4% 46%  
338 5% 42%  
339 7% 37%  
340 5% 31%  
341 3% 26%  
342 4% 23%  
343 3% 19%  
344 3% 16%  
345 2% 14%  
346 3% 12%  
347 1.5% 9%  
348 1.1% 7%  
349 1.3% 6%  
350 1.4% 5%  
351 0.7% 3%  
352 0.6% 3%  
353 0.6% 2%  
354 0.6% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.0% Majority
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.2% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.3% 99.5%  
278 0.3% 99.2%  
279 0.4% 98.9%  
280 0.8% 98.6%  
281 0.6% 98%  
282 1.0% 97%  
283 1.1% 96%  
284 1.1% 95%  
285 1.5% 94%  
286 2% 92%  
287 2% 90%  
288 3% 89%  
289 3% 86% Last Result
290 2% 82%  
291 3% 80%  
292 4% 77%  
293 3% 73%  
294 5% 70%  
295 5% 64%  
296 6% 59%  
297 6% 53% Median
298 4% 48%  
299 4% 43%  
300 5% 40%  
301 3% 35%  
302 4% 32%  
303 4% 28%  
304 3% 24%  
305 3% 21%  
306 3% 18%  
307 2% 15%  
308 3% 13%  
309 1.3% 10%  
310 2% 9%  
311 1.0% 7%  
312 0.9% 6%  
313 1.2% 5%  
314 0.7% 4%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.1% 1.3%  
322 0.2% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0% 99.4%  
256 0.2% 99.4%  
257 0% 99.2%  
258 0.1% 99.2%  
259 0.1% 99.1%  
260 0.1% 99.0%  
261 0.1% 98.9%  
262 0.1% 98.8%  
263 0.2% 98.7%  
264 0.2% 98.5%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0.2% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 0.4% 97%  
273 0.7% 96%  
274 1.0% 96%  
275 0.8% 95%  
276 1.0% 94%  
277 2% 93%  
278 1.4% 91%  
279 2% 90%  
280 2% 88%  
281 2% 85%  
282 3% 83%  
283 4% 80%  
284 4% 76%  
285 4% 72%  
286 6% 69%  
287 4% 63%  
288 5% 59%  
289 4% 54%  
290 4% 50% Median
291 4% 46%  
292 7% 42%  
293 3% 36%  
294 5% 32%  
295 4% 28%  
296 3% 23%  
297 3% 20%  
298 3% 17%  
299 2% 15%  
300 2% 12% Last Result
301 3% 11%  
302 2% 8%  
303 1.1% 6%  
304 2% 5%  
305 0.7% 3%  
306 0.5% 3%  
307 0.7% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.3%  
310 0.3% 1.0%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.2% 0.5%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.2% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.4% 99.6%  
225 0.3% 99.2%  
226 0.2% 98.9%  
227 0.7% 98.7%  
228 1.1% 98%  
229 0.4% 97%  
230 1.1% 97%  
231 2% 96%  
232 1.1% 94%  
233 2% 93%  
234 3% 90%  
235 2% 88%  
236 2% 85%  
237 6% 83%  
238 3% 77%  
239 3% 75%  
240 7% 72%  
241 3% 65%  
242 2% 61%  
243 11% 59%  
244 3% 49% Median
245 2% 46%  
246 6% 43%  
247 5% 37%  
248 1.3% 32%  
249 6% 31%  
250 5% 25%  
251 1.3% 20%  
252 3% 19%  
253 4% 16%  
254 2% 12%  
255 2% 11%  
256 3% 9%  
257 0.6% 7%  
258 1.2% 6%  
259 1.3% 5%  
260 0.4% 3%  
261 0.3% 3%  
262 0.7% 3%  
263 0.4% 2%  
264 0.2% 2%  
265 0.3% 1.5%  
266 0.2% 1.2%  
267 0.1% 1.0%  
268 0.1% 0.8%  
269 0.1% 0.7%  
270 0.1% 0.6%  
271 0.1% 0.5%  
272 0% 0.4%  
273 0.1% 0.3%  
274 0.1% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0.1% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.3% 99.6%  
144 0.4% 99.3%  
145 0.5% 98.9%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 0.8% 98%  
148 2% 97%  
149 1.5% 95%  
150 2% 94%  
151 3% 92%  
152 4% 89%  
153 2% 85%  
154 4% 83%  
155 4% 80%  
156 5% 76%  
157 4% 71%  
158 5% 67%  
159 7% 62%  
160 5% 55% Median
161 7% 50%  
162 5% 43%  
163 6% 38%  
164 3% 32%  
165 5% 28%  
166 4% 23%  
167 3% 19%  
168 4% 16%  
169 2% 13%  
170 2% 11%  
171 2% 9%  
172 1.4% 7%  
173 1.0% 5%  
174 1.2% 4%  
175 0.5% 3%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.3% 1.3%  
179 0.2% 1.1%  
180 0.3% 0.8%  
181 0.1% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0% 99.6%  
109 0.1% 99.6%  
110 0.2% 99.5%  
111 0.1% 99.3%  
112 0.1% 99.2%  
113 0.2% 99.1%  
114 0.1% 98.9%  
115 0.1% 98.8%  
116 0.1% 98.7%  
117 0.2% 98.6%  
118 0.1% 98%  
119 0% 98%  
120 0.1% 98%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0% 98%  
123 0% 98%  
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0% 98%  
127 0% 98%  
128 0% 98%  
129 0% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0% 98%  
132 0.1% 98%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0.2% 97%  
136 0.3% 97%  
137 0.3% 97%  
138 0.5% 96%  
139 1.0% 96%  
140 0.9% 95%  
141 1.2% 94%  
142 1.2% 93%  
143 2% 92%  
144 2% 89%  
145 3% 87%  
146 4% 84%  
147 4% 80%  
148 4% 76%  
149 6% 72%  
150 4% 67%  
151 7% 62%  
152 5% 56%  
153 5% 50% Median
154 5% 45%  
155 6% 40%  
156 5% 34%  
157 5% 29%  
158 4% 24%  
159 3% 20%  
160 3% 17%  
161 3% 14%  
162 3% 11%  
163 1.4% 8%  
164 2% 6%  
165 1.1% 4%  
166 0.9% 3%  
167 0.7% 2%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.4% 1.3%  
170 0.2% 0.9%  
171 0.3% 0.7%  
172 0.1% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations