Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 10–13 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 14.9–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 216 208–226 205–228 203–231 199–236
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 124 116–131 114–134 112–135 108–140
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 108 100–116 99–119 98–120 94–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–90 75–91 72–92 70–95
Die Linke 69 63 59–71 57–72 56–73 52–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 56–66 53–67 52–69 49–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–58 46–60 45–62 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0.1% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.2% 99.8%  
199 0.3% 99.6%  
200 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
201 0.6% 99.0%  
202 0.4% 98%  
203 0.9% 98%  
204 1.0% 97%  
205 2% 96%  
206 2% 95%  
207 0.8% 93%  
208 2% 92%  
209 5% 90%  
210 3% 85%  
211 4% 82%  
212 1.4% 78%  
213 2% 77%  
214 6% 75%  
215 11% 68%  
216 8% 57% Median
217 3% 50%  
218 3% 46%  
219 4% 43%  
220 3% 39%  
221 7% 36%  
222 6% 29%  
223 8% 23%  
224 3% 14%  
225 1.1% 12%  
226 1.2% 11%  
227 3% 9%  
228 2% 7%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 0.8% 4%  
231 1.1% 3%  
232 0.4% 2%  
233 0.7% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.2%  
235 0.2% 0.8%  
236 0.3% 0.7%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.2% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.7% 99.4%  
110 0.2% 98.8%  
111 0.2% 98.6%  
112 2% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 1.0% 95%  
115 4% 94%  
116 1.1% 90%  
117 2% 89%  
118 9% 87%  
119 7% 78%  
120 1.2% 72%  
121 6% 70%  
122 11% 64%  
123 2% 53%  
124 13% 50% Median
125 6% 37%  
126 2% 31%  
127 3% 29%  
128 6% 26%  
129 5% 20%  
130 3% 15%  
131 4% 11%  
132 0.4% 8%  
133 1.3% 7%  
134 2% 6%  
135 1.5% 4%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 0.2% 1.2%  
139 0.3% 1.0%  
140 0.3% 0.7%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0% 0.3%  
143 0% 0.2%  
144 0.2% 0.2%  
145 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.5%  
95 0.4% 99.3%  
96 0.2% 98.9%  
97 0.5% 98.7%  
98 2% 98%  
99 2% 96%  
100 5% 94%  
101 2% 89%  
102 3% 87%  
103 3% 84%  
104 7% 81%  
105 3% 74%  
106 5% 71%  
107 9% 66%  
108 9% 57% Median
109 5% 48%  
110 3% 44%  
111 3% 41%  
112 6% 38%  
113 8% 32%  
114 5% 25%  
115 10% 20%  
116 0.8% 10%  
117 0.9% 10%  
118 2% 9%  
119 1.2% 6%  
120 3% 5%  
121 0.7% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.2%  
123 0.2% 0.7%  
124 0.1% 0.6%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 99.4%  
72 2% 98.8%  
73 0.4% 97%  
74 1.2% 97%  
75 5% 95%  
76 4% 91%  
77 1.5% 86%  
78 3% 85%  
79 11% 82%  
80 9% 71%  
81 2% 62%  
82 6% 60%  
83 17% 55% Median
84 7% 37%  
85 1.2% 30%  
86 5% 29%  
87 8% 24%  
88 5% 16%  
89 0.7% 11%  
90 3% 10%  
91 5% 8%  
92 0.4% 3%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.5% 2% Last Result
95 0.8% 1.3%  
96 0.1% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.6%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 0.3% 99.1%  
55 1.2% 98.8%  
56 1.1% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 2% 93%  
59 4% 91%  
60 8% 87%  
61 10% 79%  
62 11% 68%  
63 16% 57% Median
64 6% 42%  
65 9% 36%  
66 3% 27%  
67 4% 24%  
68 4% 19%  
69 3% 16% Last Result
70 1.2% 13%  
71 6% 12%  
72 2% 6%  
73 2% 5%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.0%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.3%  
51 0.7% 98%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 1.1% 91%  
56 5% 90%  
57 13% 85%  
58 5% 72%  
59 4% 66%  
60 13% 62% Median
61 10% 49%  
62 9% 39%  
63 8% 30%  
64 8% 23%  
65 4% 15%  
66 4% 10%  
67 2% 6%  
68 1.0% 4%  
69 0.6% 3%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 99.1%  
45 1.0% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 10% 88%  
50 5% 79%  
51 11% 74%  
52 9% 63%  
53 7% 54% Median
54 12% 46%  
55 10% 34%  
56 4% 24%  
57 7% 20%  
58 4% 13%  
59 2% 9%  
60 3% 7%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 1.0% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.5%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 511 100% 501–518 497–520 494–523 491–528
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 454 100% 446–463 441–468 439–469 433–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 440 100% 429–448 426–450 423–453 419–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 414 100% 405–425 400–426 398–428 392–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 401 100% 392–411 388–415 386–417 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 387 100% 377–396 372–397 369–400 365–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 359 77% 350–372 348–374 346–375 339–380
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 330 0.1% 321–340 318–344 314–345 310–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 295 0% 284–304 283–309 281–311 275–317
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 285 0% 275–296 272–299 269–300 266–306
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 232 0% 222–242 221–243 218–248 212–252
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 163–181 160–184 159–186 155–190
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 152–171 151–173 150–175 144–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 99.9%  
488 0.1% 99.9%  
489 0.1% 99.8%  
490 0.2% 99.7%  
491 0.2% 99.5%  
492 0.8% 99.3%  
493 0.2% 98%  
494 0.9% 98%  
495 0.4% 97%  
496 2% 97%  
497 2% 95%  
498 1.2% 94%  
499 2% 93%  
500 0.7% 91%  
501 5% 90%  
502 0.9% 85%  
503 4% 84%  
504 2% 81%  
505 4% 79%  
506 2% 75%  
507 4% 73%  
508 4% 69% Median
509 10% 65%  
510 4% 54%  
511 8% 50%  
512 4% 42%  
513 7% 38%  
514 4% 31%  
515 11% 27%  
516 3% 16%  
517 3% 13%  
518 3% 11%  
519 0.8% 8%  
520 3% 7%  
521 1.4% 4%  
522 0.3% 3%  
523 0.6% 3%  
524 0.5% 2%  
525 0.2% 2%  
526 0.3% 1.3%  
527 0.5% 1.0%  
528 0.1% 0.5%  
529 0.2% 0.5%  
530 0.1% 0.3%  
531 0% 0.2%  
532 0.1% 0.2%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.3% 99.7%  
434 0.1% 99.4%  
435 0.2% 99.3%  
436 0.4% 99.1%  
437 0.2% 98.7%  
438 0.5% 98%  
439 0.5% 98%  
440 2% 97%  
441 0.9% 96%  
442 2% 95%  
443 0.7% 93%  
444 0.6% 92%  
445 0.6% 91%  
446 4% 91%  
447 4% 87%  
448 14% 83%  
449 2% 68%  
450 3% 66%  
451 0.7% 63%  
452 2% 63%  
453 8% 60% Median
454 4% 52%  
455 8% 48%  
456 6% 40%  
457 3% 35%  
458 3% 31%  
459 2% 28%  
460 7% 26%  
461 3% 20%  
462 6% 17%  
463 1.2% 11%  
464 1.4% 10%  
465 1.0% 8%  
466 0.2% 7%  
467 1.4% 7%  
468 2% 6%  
469 2% 4%  
470 0.7% 2%  
471 0.4% 1.0%  
472 0.1% 0.6%  
473 0.1% 0.5%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0.1% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.8%  
417 0.2% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.5% 99.4%  
421 0.7% 98.9%  
422 0.5% 98%  
423 0.2% 98%  
424 0.8% 97%  
425 1.3% 97%  
426 1.4% 95%  
427 0.4% 94%  
428 4% 94%  
429 0.7% 90%  
430 1.4% 89%  
431 1.3% 88%  
432 5% 87%  
433 6% 82%  
434 1.4% 76%  
435 2% 74%  
436 2% 72%  
437 8% 71% Median
438 4% 63%  
439 3% 59%  
440 7% 55%  
441 9% 48%  
442 5% 39%  
443 4% 34%  
444 6% 30%  
445 5% 24%  
446 3% 19%  
447 1.4% 16%  
448 5% 15%  
449 1.1% 9%  
450 4% 8%  
451 0.7% 4%  
452 0.5% 4%  
453 0.9% 3%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.3% 2%  
456 0.4% 1.4%  
457 0.4% 1.0%  
458 0.1% 0.6%  
459 0.1% 0.5%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
387 0% 100%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.9%  
390 0.2% 99.8%  
391 0% 99.6%  
392 0.1% 99.6%  
393 0.1% 99.5%  
394 0% 99.4%  
395 0.2% 99.4%  
396 0.8% 99.1%  
397 0.7% 98%  
398 1.1% 98%  
399 1.4% 97%  
400 0.8% 95%  
401 1.1% 94%  
402 0.2% 93%  
403 0.3% 93%  
404 1.4% 93%  
405 3% 91%  
406 6% 88%  
407 10% 82%  
408 4% 72%  
409 10% 67%  
410 3% 57%  
411 2% 54%  
412 0.6% 53% Median
413 2% 52%  
414 2% 50%  
415 5% 48%  
416 9% 43%  
417 7% 34%  
418 7% 27%  
419 3% 20%  
420 0.8% 16% Last Result
421 0.7% 16%  
422 0.7% 15%  
423 1.0% 14%  
424 2% 13%  
425 2% 11%  
426 6% 10%  
427 0.6% 4%  
428 2% 3%  
429 0.5% 2%  
430 0.1% 1.0%  
431 0.2% 0.9%  
432 0% 0.7%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0.1% 0.6%  
435 0.3% 0.4%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0.1% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.3% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.5%  
381 0.2% 99.4%  
382 0.2% 99.2%  
383 0.1% 98.9%  
384 0.5% 98.8%  
385 0.6% 98%  
386 0.6% 98%  
387 2% 97%  
388 0.8% 95%  
389 1.2% 94%  
390 0.7% 93%  
391 2% 92%  
392 2% 91%  
393 5% 89%  
394 11% 84%  
395 2% 73%  
396 2% 71%  
397 4% 70%  
398 6% 66%  
399 7% 60%  
400 3% 53% Median
401 6% 50%  
402 3% 44%  
403 7% 41%  
404 4% 35%  
405 3% 31%  
406 5% 28%  
407 2% 23%  
408 1.3% 22%  
409 2% 20%  
410 2% 19%  
411 8% 17%  
412 0.9% 9%  
413 1.3% 8%  
414 0.9% 7%  
415 2% 6%  
416 0.4% 4%  
417 2% 3%  
418 0.4% 1.2%  
419 0.1% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.7%  
421 0.2% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0.1% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.4% 99.3%  
368 1.0% 98.9%  
369 1.0% 98%  
370 1.1% 97%  
371 0.7% 96%  
372 0.3% 95%  
373 0.8% 95%  
374 1.0% 94%  
375 1.4% 93%  
376 1.3% 92%  
377 6% 90%  
378 1.2% 85%  
379 1.3% 83%  
380 4% 82%  
381 1.3% 78%  
382 5% 77%  
383 4% 72%  
384 4% 68% Median
385 7% 64%  
386 3% 57%  
387 9% 54%  
388 5% 45%  
389 3% 40%  
390 4% 36%  
391 6% 33%  
392 0.5% 26%  
393 8% 26%  
394 6% 17%  
395 1.2% 11%  
396 4% 10%  
397 1.5% 6%  
398 1.3% 5%  
399 0.3% 4% Last Result
400 0.8% 3%  
401 0.7% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.2% 1.4%  
404 0.3% 1.2%  
405 0.2% 0.9%  
406 0% 0.8%  
407 0.3% 0.7%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.2% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.2% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
341 0.2% 99.3%  
342 0.2% 99.1%  
343 0.6% 98.9%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 0.3% 98%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 1.1% 97%  
348 1.1% 96%  
349 1.3% 95%  
350 6% 93%  
351 5% 87%  
352 2% 82%  
353 2% 80%  
354 0.9% 78%  
355 12% 77% Majority
356 4% 65%  
357 6% 61%  
358 4% 55%  
359 5% 51% Median
360 2% 46%  
361 2% 44%  
362 2% 42%  
363 2% 40%  
364 2% 38%  
365 7% 36%  
366 5% 29%  
367 6% 24%  
368 3% 19%  
369 0.6% 16%  
370 4% 15%  
371 1.3% 12%  
372 2% 10%  
373 3% 8%  
374 3% 6%  
375 1.4% 3%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.4% 1.3%  
378 0.3% 0.9%  
379 0.1% 0.7%  
380 0.2% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.3% 99.5%  
312 0.4% 99.2%  
313 0.4% 98.8%  
314 1.0% 98%  
315 0.2% 97%  
316 0.9% 97%  
317 0.8% 96%  
318 1.0% 95%  
319 2% 95%  
320 2% 92%  
321 0.7% 91%  
322 3% 90%  
323 3% 87%  
324 6% 85%  
325 3% 79%  
326 9% 76% Last Result
327 2% 66%  
328 8% 65%  
329 1.0% 56% Median
330 6% 55%  
331 4% 50%  
332 6% 45%  
333 5% 40%  
334 2% 34%  
335 4% 32%  
336 5% 29%  
337 7% 24%  
338 5% 17%  
339 1.1% 12%  
340 2% 11%  
341 1.1% 9%  
342 2% 8%  
343 0.9% 6%  
344 2% 5%  
345 1.1% 4%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.6% 2%  
348 0.5% 1.4%  
349 0.3% 0.9%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.3% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0% 99.3%  
278 0.2% 99.3%  
279 0.1% 99.1%  
280 0.5% 99.0%  
281 2% 98%  
282 0.6% 97%  
283 6% 96%  
284 2% 90%  
285 2% 89%  
286 1.0% 87%  
287 0.7% 86%  
288 0.7% 85%  
289 0.8% 84% Last Result
290 3% 84%  
291 7% 80%  
292 7% 73%  
293 9% 66%  
294 5% 57%  
295 2% 52% Median
296 2% 50%  
297 0.6% 48%  
298 2% 47%  
299 3% 46%  
300 10% 43%  
301 4% 33%  
302 10% 28%  
303 6% 18%  
304 3% 12%  
305 1.4% 9%  
306 0.3% 7%  
307 0.2% 7%  
308 1.1% 7%  
309 0.8% 6%  
310 1.4% 5%  
311 1.1% 3%  
312 0.7% 2%  
313 0.8% 2%  
314 0.2% 0.9%  
315 0% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0% 0.4%  
319 0.2% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.2% 99.7%  
266 0.3% 99.5%  
267 0.3% 99.2%  
268 0.3% 98.9%  
269 1.4% 98.6%  
270 2% 97%  
271 0.2% 96%  
272 0.7% 95%  
273 1.0% 95%  
274 3% 94%  
275 2% 91%  
276 2% 89%  
277 9% 87%  
278 1.4% 77%  
279 2% 76%  
280 6% 74%  
281 3% 68%  
282 2% 65%  
283 4% 63%  
284 5% 59%  
285 5% 54% Median
286 1.2% 49%  
287 5% 48%  
288 6% 42%  
289 1.1% 37%  
290 7% 36%  
291 10% 29%  
292 1.2% 19%  
293 3% 18%  
294 2% 15%  
295 2% 13%  
296 2% 11%  
297 2% 9%  
298 0.8% 7%  
299 3% 6%  
300 0.9% 3% Last Result
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.2% 1.4%  
303 0.4% 1.2%  
304 0.2% 0.8%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0.2% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0.1% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.2% 99.7%  
213 0.2% 99.5%  
214 0.1% 99.3%  
215 0.3% 99.3%  
216 0.4% 99.0%  
217 1.0% 98.6%  
218 2% 98%  
219 0.5% 96%  
220 0.2% 95% Last Result
221 3% 95%  
222 4% 92%  
223 2% 88%  
224 3% 86%  
225 1.0% 83%  
226 2% 82%  
227 4% 80%  
228 9% 75%  
229 4% 66%  
230 3% 62%  
231 4% 59%  
232 10% 56% Median
233 4% 46%  
234 5% 42%  
235 1.4% 37%  
236 1.4% 36%  
237 11% 34%  
238 6% 24%  
239 2% 18%  
240 0.4% 16%  
241 0.9% 16%  
242 8% 15%  
243 2% 6%  
244 0.5% 5%  
245 0.7% 4%  
246 0.4% 4%  
247 0.5% 3%  
248 1.4% 3%  
249 0.8% 2%  
250 0% 0.7%  
251 0.1% 0.7%  
252 0.2% 0.6%  
253 0.2% 0.4%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0.1% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0.3% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.5%  
156 0.2% 99.4%  
157 1.1% 99.2%  
158 0.4% 98%  
159 0.7% 98%  
160 2% 97%  
161 0.8% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 4% 92%  
164 3% 88%  
165 3% 85%  
166 2% 82%  
167 4% 80%  
168 5% 76%  
169 7% 71%  
170 2% 64%  
171 8% 62% Median
172 2% 55%  
173 6% 52%  
174 6% 46%  
175 5% 40%  
176 2% 35%  
177 3% 33%  
178 9% 30%  
179 5% 21%  
180 4% 16%  
181 3% 12%  
182 1.1% 9%  
183 2% 8%  
184 3% 6%  
185 0.6% 3%  
186 0.6% 3%  
187 0.4% 2%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.4% 1.0%  
190 0.1% 0.6%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.2% 99.9%  
144 0.4% 99.7%  
145 0.3% 99.3%  
146 0.2% 99.0%  
147 0.1% 98.8%  
148 0.5% 98.6%  
149 0.3% 98%  
150 2% 98%  
151 4% 96%  
152 4% 92%  
153 5% 89%  
154 4% 84%  
155 3% 80%  
156 2% 77%  
157 3% 76%  
158 5% 73%  
159 6% 68%  
160 5% 62%  
161 4% 57% Median
162 6% 53%  
163 10% 48%  
164 4% 37%  
165 1.5% 33%  
166 2% 32%  
167 1.4% 29%  
168 3% 28%  
169 9% 25%  
170 4% 16%  
171 3% 12%  
172 3% 8%  
173 2% 5%  
174 0.6% 3%  
175 0.4% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.8% 2%  
178 0.3% 0.9%  
179 0.3% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations