Opinion Poll by Kantar, 9–15 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.4–32.5% 29.0–33.0% 28.6–33.3% 27.9–34.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.5–9.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 230 219–243 216–247 213–250 207–258
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 117–136 115–140 113–142 109–147
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 110–129 108–132 106–134 102–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 67–83 65–85 64–87 60–91
Die Linke 69 60 53–67 51–69 50–71 47–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.2% 99.7%  
208 0.2% 99.5%  
209 0.2% 99.3%  
210 0.3% 99.1%  
211 0.5% 98.8%  
212 0.6% 98%  
213 0.7% 98%  
214 0.9% 97%  
215 1.0% 96%  
216 1.4% 95%  
217 2% 94%  
218 2% 92%  
219 2% 90%  
220 3% 88%  
221 2% 85%  
222 3% 83%  
223 4% 80%  
224 2% 76%  
225 5% 74%  
226 3% 68%  
227 3% 65%  
228 5% 61%  
229 4% 57%  
230 6% 52% Median
231 4% 47%  
232 4% 43%  
233 3% 39%  
234 3% 35%  
235 4% 32%  
236 3% 28%  
237 3% 25%  
238 3% 22%  
239 2% 19%  
240 2% 16%  
241 2% 14%  
242 2% 12%  
243 2% 10%  
244 1.4% 8%  
245 1.2% 7%  
246 0.8% 6%  
247 1.1% 5%  
248 0.5% 4%  
249 0.6% 3%  
250 0.4% 3%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.5% 2%  
253 0.2% 2%  
254 0.3% 1.4%  
255 0.1% 1.1%  
256 0.2% 0.9%  
257 0.1% 0.7%  
258 0.2% 0.6%  
259 0.1% 0.4%  
260 0.1% 0.3%  
261 0% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.3%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.5%  
110 0.4% 99.3%  
111 0.6% 98.9%  
112 0.8% 98%  
113 0.8% 98%  
114 1.4% 97%  
115 1.3% 95%  
116 2% 94%  
117 2% 92%  
118 3% 90%  
119 3% 87%  
120 4% 84%  
121 4% 80%  
122 4% 76%  
123 5% 72%  
124 5% 67%  
125 5% 62%  
126 5% 57%  
127 6% 51% Median
128 5% 46%  
129 4% 41%  
130 6% 37%  
131 5% 31%  
132 4% 26%  
133 4% 22%  
134 3% 18%  
135 3% 15%  
136 2% 12%  
137 2% 10%  
138 2% 8%  
139 1.1% 6%  
140 1.3% 5%  
141 0.8% 4%  
142 0.8% 3%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.4% 2%  
145 0.3% 1.3%  
146 0.3% 1.0%  
147 0.2% 0.6%  
148 0.1% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.2% 99.5%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 0.6% 98%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 0.9% 97%  
108 2% 96%  
109 2% 94%  
110 2% 92%  
111 3% 90%  
112 3% 87%  
113 4% 84%  
114 4% 80%  
115 5% 76%  
116 5% 71%  
117 5% 66%  
118 5% 61%  
119 6% 56%  
120 6% 50% Median
121 6% 44%  
122 5% 39%  
123 5% 34%  
124 5% 29%  
125 4% 25%  
126 4% 21%  
127 3% 17%  
128 3% 14%  
129 3% 11%  
130 2% 9%  
131 2% 7%  
132 1.1% 5%  
133 1.1% 4%  
134 0.8% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.5%  
138 0.3% 1.1%  
139 0.2% 0.8%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.6% 99.2%  
63 0.8% 98.6%  
64 1.2% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 3% 93%  
68 4% 90%  
69 4% 86%  
70 5% 82%  
71 5% 77%  
72 7% 72%  
73 6% 65%  
74 7% 59%  
75 8% 52% Median
76 6% 44%  
77 6% 38%  
78 5% 32%  
79 5% 27%  
80 5% 22%  
81 4% 17%  
82 3% 14%  
83 3% 11%  
84 2% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.4% 4%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.4%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.4% 99.4%  
49 0.8% 99.0%  
50 2% 98%  
51 2% 96%  
52 2% 94%  
53 3% 92%  
54 4% 88%  
55 5% 84%  
56 5% 79%  
57 5% 74%  
58 6% 69%  
59 7% 63%  
60 7% 56% Median
61 7% 48%  
62 7% 41%  
63 8% 35%  
64 7% 27%  
65 6% 20%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 11%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.3% 4%  
71 0.8% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.6% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.8%  
44 1.3% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95% Last Result
47 4% 92%  
48 5% 88%  
49 5% 83%  
50 7% 77%  
51 7% 70%  
52 7% 63%  
53 8% 56% Median
54 7% 47%  
55 7% 40%  
56 7% 33%  
57 5% 25%  
58 4% 20%  
59 4% 16%  
60 3% 12%  
61 2% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.4% 4%  
64 0.8% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0.6% 96%  
38 3% 96%  
39 4% 93%  
40 5% 89%  
41 8% 84%  
42 7% 76%  
43 8% 69%  
44 9% 61%  
45 9% 52% Median
46 9% 44%  
47 6% 35%  
48 7% 29%  
49 6% 22%  
50 4% 17%  
51 3% 13%  
52 3% 9%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.4% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 529 100% 519–541 515–547 512–563 507–575
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 442–466 438–470 434–473 425–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 447 100% 435–460 431–463 427–466 418–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 410 100% 397–424 394–429 391–435 385–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 402 100% 391–417 387–422 384–428 378–442
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 403 100% 391–416 386–420 381–422 370–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 358 65% 346–372 342–377 340–382 333–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 327 0.3% 315–341 310–344 304–348 291–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 306 0% 293–318 289–323 287–328 282–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 291 0% 277–303 272–306 265–310 251–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 234–258 231–262 228–266 223–276
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 180 0% 169–191 166–194 163–197 158–204
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 153–175 148–178 131–181 119–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0% 99.9%  
504 0.1% 99.9%  
505 0.1% 99.8%  
506 0.1% 99.8%  
507 0.1% 99.6%  
508 0.2% 99.5%  
509 0.2% 99.2%  
510 0.3% 99.0%  
511 0.4% 98.7%  
512 0.8% 98%  
513 0.7% 97%  
514 0.9% 97%  
515 1.1% 96%  
516 1.3% 95%  
517 1.4% 94%  
518 2% 92%  
519 2% 90%  
520 3% 88%  
521 4% 85%  
522 2% 82%  
523 5% 79%  
524 2% 74%  
525 4% 72%  
526 5% 68%  
527 4% 63%  
528 4% 59%  
529 5% 55%  
530 6% 50% Median
531 4% 44%  
532 4% 40%  
533 5% 36%  
534 4% 31%  
535 4% 27%  
536 3% 23%  
537 2% 20%  
538 3% 18%  
539 2% 15%  
540 2% 13%  
541 1.5% 11%  
542 1.4% 10%  
543 1.0% 8%  
544 0.4% 7%  
545 1.1% 7%  
546 0.6% 6%  
547 0.4% 5%  
548 0.2% 5%  
549 0.4% 5%  
550 0.1% 4%  
551 0.1% 4%  
552 0.1% 4%  
553 0.1% 4%  
554 0.2% 4%  
555 0.1% 3%  
556 0.1% 3%  
557 0.2% 3%  
558 0.1% 3%  
559 0.2% 3%  
560 0.2% 3%  
561 0.1% 3%  
562 0.1% 3%  
563 0.2% 3%  
564 0.3% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 0.1% 2%  
567 0.1% 2%  
568 0.1% 2%  
569 0.3% 2%  
570 0.1% 1.2%  
571 0.1% 1.1%  
572 0.3% 1.0%  
573 0.1% 0.7%  
574 0.1% 0.6%  
575 0.1% 0.5%  
576 0.1% 0.4%  
577 0.1% 0.3%  
578 0.1% 0.3%  
579 0.1% 0.2%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.8%  
421 0% 99.8%  
422 0% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.6%  
425 0.1% 99.6%  
426 0.1% 99.4%  
427 0.1% 99.3%  
428 0.2% 99.2%  
429 0.2% 99.1%  
430 0.3% 98.9%  
431 0.3% 98.6%  
432 0.3% 98%  
433 0.3% 98%  
434 0.3% 98%  
435 0.5% 97%  
436 0.6% 97%  
437 0.6% 96%  
438 0.9% 96%  
439 1.1% 95%  
440 1.3% 94%  
441 2% 92%  
442 1.5% 90%  
443 2% 89%  
444 2% 87%  
445 3% 85%  
446 2% 81%  
447 2% 80%  
448 4% 77%  
449 3% 73%  
450 3% 70%  
451 4% 67%  
452 4% 63%  
453 4% 59%  
454 5% 55%  
455 5% 50% Median
456 5% 45%  
457 4% 41%  
458 4% 37%  
459 4% 33%  
460 3% 29%  
461 3% 26%  
462 2% 23%  
463 3% 21%  
464 4% 18%  
465 2% 14%  
466 3% 12%  
467 2% 10%  
468 2% 8%  
469 1.2% 6%  
470 1.2% 5%  
471 0.7% 4%  
472 0.8% 3%  
473 0.5% 3%  
474 0.3% 2%  
475 0.5% 2%  
476 0.3% 1.2%  
477 0.3% 0.9%  
478 0.2% 0.7%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.5%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.1% 99.4%  
421 0.1% 99.2%  
422 0.1% 99.1%  
423 0.3% 99.0%  
424 0.3% 98.6%  
425 0.2% 98%  
426 0.4% 98%  
427 0.4% 98%  
428 0.5% 97%  
429 0.5% 97%  
430 0.8% 96%  
431 0.8% 95%  
432 1.0% 95%  
433 1.4% 94%  
434 1.5% 92%  
435 2% 91%  
436 3% 89%  
437 2% 86%  
438 2% 84%  
439 3% 82%  
440 4% 79%  
441 3% 75%  
442 4% 72%  
443 5% 68%  
444 5% 64%  
445 3% 59%  
446 4% 56%  
447 4% 52%  
448 4% 48% Median
449 4% 43%  
450 4% 40%  
451 3% 36%  
452 4% 33%  
453 3% 29%  
454 2% 26%  
455 3% 23%  
456 2% 20%  
457 4% 18%  
458 2% 14%  
459 2% 12%  
460 2% 10%  
461 1.3% 8%  
462 1.3% 7%  
463 1.4% 6%  
464 0.9% 4%  
465 0.9% 3%  
466 0.6% 3%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.5% 2%  
469 0.2% 1.0%  
470 0.2% 0.8%  
471 0.1% 0.6%  
472 0.2% 0.4%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.7%  
385 0.1% 99.6%  
386 0.2% 99.5%  
387 0.2% 99.3%  
388 0.3% 99.1%  
389 0.2% 98.8%  
390 0.5% 98.6%  
391 0.6% 98%  
392 1.1% 97%  
393 0.7% 96%  
394 0.8% 96%  
395 1.1% 95%  
396 2% 94%  
397 2% 92%  
398 2% 90%  
399 2% 88%  
400 2% 86%  
401 3% 84%  
402 4% 82%  
403 3% 78%  
404 4% 75%  
405 3% 71%  
406 3% 68%  
407 4% 66%  
408 6% 61%  
409 4% 56%  
410 5% 52% Median
411 3% 47%  
412 3% 45%  
413 6% 41%  
414 4% 36%  
415 4% 32%  
416 2% 28%  
417 3% 26%  
418 2% 23%  
419 3% 20%  
420 3% 17%  
421 2% 15%  
422 1.1% 13%  
423 1.3% 11%  
424 1.0% 10%  
425 2% 9%  
426 1.2% 7%  
427 0.6% 6%  
428 0.5% 6%  
429 0.5% 5%  
430 0.7% 5%  
431 0.5% 4%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.2% 3%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.3% 3%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.2% 2%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.1% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.2% 2%  
442 0.1% 1.5%  
443 0.2% 1.3%  
444 0.1% 1.1%  
445 0.1% 1.1%  
446 0.1% 1.0%  
447 0.2% 0.9%  
448 0.1% 0.7%  
449 0.1% 0.6%  
450 0.1% 0.5%  
451 0.1% 0.4%  
452 0% 0.3%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.1% 99.6%  
379 0.2% 99.5%  
380 0.2% 99.3%  
381 0.3% 99.1%  
382 0.3% 98.8%  
383 0.6% 98.5%  
384 0.6% 98%  
385 0.8% 97%  
386 0.7% 97%  
387 1.3% 96%  
388 1.1% 95%  
389 2% 94%  
390 2% 92%  
391 3% 90%  
392 2% 87%  
393 3% 86%  
394 4% 83%  
395 2% 79%  
396 4% 78%  
397 4% 74%  
398 4% 70%  
399 3% 65% Last Result
400 4% 62%  
401 3% 59%  
402 6% 56%  
403 3% 50% Median
404 4% 46%  
405 3% 42%  
406 4% 39%  
407 3% 35%  
408 3% 32%  
409 3% 29%  
410 3% 26%  
411 3% 23%  
412 3% 20%  
413 2% 17%  
414 2% 15%  
415 2% 13%  
416 2% 12%  
417 1.4% 10%  
418 1.0% 9%  
419 0.9% 8%  
420 0.9% 7%  
421 0.8% 6%  
422 0.6% 5%  
423 0.4% 4%  
424 0.5% 4%  
425 0.2% 4%  
426 0.4% 3%  
427 0.2% 3%  
428 0.2% 3%  
429 0.2% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.2% 2%  
432 0.1% 2%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0.1% 1.5%  
436 0.1% 1.3%  
437 0.1% 1.2%  
438 0.2% 1.1%  
439 0.1% 0.9%  
440 0.1% 0.9%  
441 0.1% 0.7%  
442 0.2% 0.6%  
443 0% 0.4%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.3%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0.1% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.6%  
370 0.1% 99.5%  
371 0% 99.4%  
372 0.2% 99.4%  
373 0.1% 99.2%  
374 0.2% 99.2%  
375 0.1% 99.0%  
376 0.2% 98.9%  
377 0.2% 98.7%  
378 0.4% 98.5%  
379 0.1% 98%  
380 0.2% 98%  
381 0.3% 98%  
382 0.6% 97%  
383 0.5% 97%  
384 0.6% 96%  
385 0.6% 96%  
386 0.5% 95%  
387 2% 95%  
388 1.3% 93%  
389 0.9% 92%  
390 0.4% 91%  
391 4% 90%  
392 2% 86%  
393 0.7% 84%  
394 2% 83%  
395 9% 82%  
396 1.0% 73%  
397 1.1% 72%  
398 2% 71%  
399 11% 68%  
400 1.0% 58%  
401 2% 57%  
402 4% 55%  
403 7% 50% Median
404 2% 43%  
405 3% 41%  
406 6% 39%  
407 3% 33%  
408 3% 30%  
409 4% 28%  
410 3% 24%  
411 0.7% 21%  
412 5% 20%  
413 2% 15%  
414 2% 14%  
415 1.0% 12%  
416 4% 11%  
417 0.5% 7%  
418 0.3% 7%  
419 1.0% 6%  
420 2% 5% Last Result
421 0.2% 3%  
422 0.2% 3%  
423 0.6% 2%  
424 0.8% 2%  
425 0.1% 1.0%  
426 0.1% 0.9%  
427 0.4% 0.8%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.2% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.5%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.2% 99.1%  
337 0.3% 98.8%  
338 0.4% 98.5%  
339 0.5% 98%  
340 0.8% 98% Last Result
341 0.6% 97%  
342 2% 96%  
343 1.2% 95%  
344 1.1% 93%  
345 2% 92%  
346 2% 91%  
347 2% 89%  
348 3% 87%  
349 4% 84%  
350 2% 80%  
351 3% 78%  
352 3% 76%  
353 4% 73%  
354 4% 68%  
355 4% 65% Majority
356 4% 61%  
357 3% 56%  
358 6% 53% Median
359 3% 48%  
360 4% 45%  
361 5% 41%  
362 3% 36%  
363 3% 33%  
364 3% 30%  
365 3% 26%  
366 2% 23%  
367 3% 21%  
368 2% 18%  
369 3% 16%  
370 2% 14%  
371 2% 12%  
372 1.3% 10%  
373 1.0% 9%  
374 1.2% 8%  
375 0.8% 7%  
376 1.0% 6%  
377 0.5% 5%  
378 0.7% 4%  
379 0.4% 4%  
380 0.3% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.1% 2%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.2% 2%  
388 0.1% 1.4%  
389 0.1% 1.3%  
390 0.3% 1.2%  
391 0.1% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.8%  
393 0% 0.8%  
394 0.3% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0% 0.4%  
397 0% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0.1% 99.2%  
295 0.1% 99.1%  
296 0.1% 99.0%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0.1% 98.8%  
299 0.2% 98.6%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.2% 98%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.4% 97%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.3% 97%  
308 0.5% 97%  
309 0.5% 96%  
310 0.9% 96%  
311 0.7% 95%  
312 0.7% 94%  
313 0.8% 93%  
314 2% 92%  
315 2% 90%  
316 2% 89%  
317 2% 87%  
318 3% 85%  
319 3% 82%  
320 3% 79%  
321 4% 76%  
322 3% 73%  
323 4% 70%  
324 5% 66%  
325 5% 61%  
326 3% 57% Last Result
327 3% 53%  
328 4% 50% Median
329 5% 46%  
330 3% 41%  
331 3% 37%  
332 3% 34%  
333 3% 32%  
334 4% 28%  
335 3% 25%  
336 2% 22%  
337 2% 20%  
338 3% 17%  
339 2% 15%  
340 2% 12%  
341 1.4% 10%  
342 1.2% 9%  
343 2% 8%  
344 1.3% 6%  
345 1.0% 5%  
346 0.8% 4%  
347 0.5% 3%  
348 0.8% 3%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.4% 1.4%  
351 0.2% 0.9%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.2% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.4% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0.1% 99.1%  
285 0.8% 99.0%  
286 0.6% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 97%  
289 2% 97% Last Result
290 1.0% 95%  
291 0.3% 94%  
292 0.5% 93%  
293 4% 93%  
294 1.0% 89%  
295 2% 88%  
296 2% 86%  
297 5% 85%  
298 0.7% 80%  
299 3% 79%  
300 4% 76%  
301 3% 72%  
302 3% 70%  
303 6% 67%  
304 3% 61%  
305 2% 59%  
306 7% 57%  
307 4% 50% Median
308 2% 45%  
309 1.0% 43%  
310 11% 42%  
311 2% 32%  
312 1.1% 29%  
313 1.0% 28%  
314 9% 27%  
315 2% 18%  
316 0.7% 17%  
317 2% 16%  
318 4% 14%  
319 0.4% 10%  
320 0.9% 9%  
321 1.3% 8%  
322 2% 7%  
323 0.5% 5%  
324 0.6% 5%  
325 0.6% 4%  
326 0.5% 4%  
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.3% 3%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.2% 1.5%  
333 0.2% 1.3%  
334 0.1% 1.1%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.1% 0.8%  
337 0.2% 0.8%  
338 0% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.4%  
254 0.2% 99.3%  
255 0.2% 99.1%  
256 0.1% 98.9%  
257 0.2% 98.8%  
258 0% 98.6%  
259 0.3% 98.5%  
260 0.1% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.2% 97%  
267 0.3% 97%  
268 0.3% 97%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.3% 96%  
271 0.7% 96%  
272 0.4% 95%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0.6% 94%  
275 1.1% 93%  
276 2% 92%  
277 0.9% 91%  
278 2% 90%  
279 2% 88%  
280 1.5% 86%  
281 2% 85%  
282 2% 82%  
283 3% 80%  
284 3% 77%  
285 4% 75%  
286 3% 71%  
287 5% 68%  
288 4% 62%  
289 4% 59%  
290 4% 55%  
291 4% 51%  
292 4% 47% Median
293 5% 43%  
294 3% 38%  
295 3% 35%  
296 5% 32%  
297 3% 27%  
298 4% 24%  
299 3% 20%  
300 2% 17% Last Result
301 2% 15%  
302 2% 13%  
303 2% 11%  
304 2% 9%  
305 1.2% 7%  
306 1.4% 6%  
307 1.0% 5%  
308 0.6% 4%  
309 0.7% 3%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.3% 1.5%  
313 0.3% 1.2%  
314 0.2% 0.9%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.2% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.2% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.5%  
225 0.3% 99.2%  
226 0.4% 98.9%  
227 0.5% 98.5%  
228 0.6% 98%  
229 0.8% 97%  
230 1.5% 97%  
231 1.3% 95%  
232 1.4% 94%  
233 1.5% 92%  
234 2% 91%  
235 2% 89%  
236 2% 87%  
237 3% 85%  
238 3% 82%  
239 3% 80%  
240 3% 76%  
241 3% 73%  
242 3% 70%  
243 4% 67%  
244 3% 64%  
245 4% 60%  
246 5% 56%  
247 5% 51% Median
248 3% 46%  
249 4% 42%  
250 4% 38%  
251 5% 34%  
252 3% 28%  
253 4% 26%  
254 3% 22%  
255 3% 19%  
256 2% 15%  
257 2% 13%  
258 2% 11%  
259 1.4% 9%  
260 0.9% 8%  
261 1.2% 7%  
262 0.8% 5%  
263 0.7% 5%  
264 0.5% 4%  
265 0.6% 4%  
266 0.5% 3%  
267 0.4% 2%  
268 0.2% 2%  
269 0.2% 2%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.3% 1.4%  
272 0.2% 1.1%  
273 0.1% 0.9%  
274 0.1% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.6%  
276 0.2% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.6%  
159 0.2% 99.5%  
160 0.3% 99.3%  
161 0.3% 99.0%  
162 0.7% 98.7%  
163 0.6% 98%  
164 0.7% 97%  
165 1.2% 97%  
166 1.2% 95%  
167 1.3% 94%  
168 2% 93%  
169 2% 91%  
170 2% 89%  
171 3% 86%  
172 3% 83%  
173 3% 80%  
174 3% 77%  
175 5% 73%  
176 4% 68%  
177 5% 65%  
178 4% 60%  
179 4% 56%  
180 6% 51% Median
181 4% 45%  
182 4% 41%  
183 6% 38%  
184 4% 32%  
185 4% 28%  
186 3% 25%  
187 4% 21%  
188 3% 18%  
189 2% 15%  
190 2% 13%  
191 2% 11%  
192 2% 9%  
193 1.4% 7%  
194 1.1% 6%  
195 1.0% 5%  
196 0.8% 4%  
197 0.5% 3%  
198 0.5% 2%  
199 0.3% 2%  
200 0.3% 2%  
201 0.3% 1.2%  
202 0.1% 0.9%  
203 0.3% 0.8%  
204 0.1% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.7%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 0.2% 99.5%  
120 0.1% 99.3%  
121 0.1% 99.2%  
122 0.1% 99.2%  
123 0.3% 99.1%  
124 0.2% 98.8%  
125 0.2% 98.6%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.3% 98%  
128 0.2% 98%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 0.1% 98%  
131 0.2% 98%  
132 0.2% 97%  
133 0.2% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0.1% 97%  
138 0.1% 97%  
139 0.1% 96%  
140 0.1% 96%  
141 0.1% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 0.1% 96%  
144 0.1% 96%  
145 0.2% 96%  
146 0.2% 96%  
147 0.4% 95%  
148 0.6% 95%  
149 0.5% 94%  
150 0.9% 94%  
151 0.7% 93%  
152 2% 92%  
153 2% 91%  
154 1.3% 88%  
155 3% 87%  
156 2% 84%  
157 3% 82%  
158 3% 79%  
159 4% 76%  
160 5% 72%  
161 4% 67%  
162 5% 63%  
163 5% 58%  
164 6% 53%  
165 4% 47% Median
166 5% 43%  
167 3% 38%  
168 5% 35%  
169 3% 30%  
170 4% 27%  
171 4% 23%  
172 3% 19%  
173 3% 15%  
174 2% 12%  
175 2% 11%  
176 1.4% 8%  
177 1.4% 7%  
178 1.3% 6%  
179 0.9% 4%  
180 0.8% 3%  
181 0.7% 3%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.3%  
184 0.2% 1.0%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.1% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations