Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 17–20 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.5% 28.2–30.8% 27.8–31.2% 27.5–31.5% 26.9–32.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 223 215–232 212–234 209–238 204–242
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 114–128 112–131 110–133 106–137
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 122 115–130 112–131 110–134 106–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–82 69–84 67–85 64–89
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 57 52–63 51–64 49–66 46–69
Die Linke 69 57 52–63 50–64 49–66 46–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 48–58 47–61 45–62 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.3% 99.7%  
205 0.3% 99.5%  
206 0.2% 99.2%  
207 0.6% 98.9%  
208 0.4% 98%  
209 1.3% 98%  
210 0.6% 97%  
211 1.0% 96%  
212 2% 95%  
213 2% 93%  
214 1.1% 91%  
215 2% 90%  
216 3% 88%  
217 8% 85%  
218 2% 77%  
219 5% 75%  
220 7% 70%  
221 4% 63%  
222 1.1% 59%  
223 11% 58% Median
224 12% 47%  
225 2% 35%  
226 3% 34%  
227 3% 31%  
228 8% 28%  
229 2% 20%  
230 3% 18%  
231 1.1% 16%  
232 8% 15%  
233 0.7% 6%  
234 1.1% 6%  
235 1.1% 5%  
236 0.6% 4%  
237 0.4% 3%  
238 0.7% 3%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.6% 1.4%  
241 0.2% 0.8%  
242 0.2% 0.6%  
243 0.1% 0.5%  
244 0.2% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0.1% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.6%  
107 0.3% 99.5%  
108 0.6% 99.1%  
109 0.2% 98.5%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 0.8% 95%  
113 2% 94%  
114 6% 93%  
115 2% 87%  
116 1.1% 85%  
117 4% 84%  
118 3% 79%  
119 3% 76%  
120 9% 73%  
121 12% 64%  
122 3% 52% Median
123 12% 49%  
124 12% 37%  
125 4% 25%  
126 8% 20%  
127 1.5% 12%  
128 1.5% 10%  
129 2% 9%  
130 1.5% 7%  
131 0.8% 6%  
132 1.0% 5%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.2% 2%  
136 0.7% 1.3%  
137 0.2% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.5%  
139 0.3% 0.4%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.4% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.3%  
108 0.1% 99.0%  
109 0.5% 98.9%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 1.5% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 94%  
114 1.1% 91%  
115 2% 90%  
116 5% 89%  
117 10% 84%  
118 11% 74%  
119 3% 64%  
120 2% 61%  
121 2% 59%  
122 9% 57% Median
123 9% 48%  
124 15% 38%  
125 4% 23%  
126 1.0% 20%  
127 1.0% 19%  
128 5% 18%  
129 3% 13%  
130 5% 10%  
131 1.5% 5%  
132 0.4% 4%  
133 0.2% 3%  
134 0.8% 3%  
135 1.3% 2%  
136 0.5% 0.9%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.5% 99.2%  
66 1.1% 98.8%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 1.4% 96%  
69 5% 95%  
70 6% 90%  
71 7% 84%  
72 4% 77%  
73 8% 74%  
74 5% 65%  
75 5% 60%  
76 6% 55% Median
77 16% 49%  
78 9% 33%  
79 4% 24%  
80 5% 20%  
81 4% 15%  
82 2% 11%  
83 2% 9%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.3% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.5% 99.5%  
48 0.3% 99.0%  
49 1.4% 98.7%  
50 2% 97%  
51 3% 95%  
52 5% 92%  
53 4% 87%  
54 10% 83%  
55 12% 73%  
56 5% 61%  
57 8% 56% Median
58 12% 48%  
59 3% 36%  
60 11% 32%  
61 6% 21%  
62 5% 15%  
63 4% 10%  
64 2% 6%  
65 0.8% 4%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.4% 99.4%  
48 1.2% 99.0%  
49 1.4% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 2% 94%  
52 10% 92%  
53 5% 82%  
54 10% 77%  
55 9% 67%  
56 7% 58%  
57 7% 51% Median
58 5% 44%  
59 8% 39%  
60 10% 31%  
61 8% 20%  
62 2% 12%  
63 4% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 0.7% 4%  
66 0.9% 3%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.7%  
44 0.2% 99.2%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 3% 95%  
48 3% 93%  
49 13% 90%  
50 1.5% 77%  
51 9% 75%  
52 22% 66% Median
53 5% 45%  
54 8% 39%  
55 7% 32%  
56 9% 25%  
57 2% 16%  
58 5% 14%  
59 2% 9%  
60 2% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.2% 1.5%  
64 0.8% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 509–528 506–530 505–532 501–537
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 455 100% 447–463 442–466 439–470 434–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 456 100% 447–462 445–468 439–470 435–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 408 100% 400–419 397–422 394–424 389–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 398 100% 389–408 385–410 383–412 378–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 397 100% 389–406 384–410 382–412 376–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 352 32% 342–361 339–364 336–367 331–373
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 334 0.3% 323–342 321–347 319–349 312–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 302 0% 291–309 288–312 284–316 279–320
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 301 0% 290–309 287–312 285–315 280–320
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 244 0% 233–252 231–254 228–258 223–262
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 171–186 168–189 165–192 161–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 180 0% 170–186 166–191 165–192 161–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.8%  
499 0.1% 99.8%  
500 0.1% 99.7%  
501 0.3% 99.5%  
502 0.3% 99.3%  
503 0.3% 99.0%  
504 0.8% 98.7%  
505 0.8% 98%  
506 2% 97%  
507 1.2% 95%  
508 1.1% 94%  
509 3% 93%  
510 1.0% 90%  
511 2% 89%  
512 2% 87%  
513 3% 84%  
514 8% 81%  
515 3% 73%  
516 3% 70%  
517 4% 67%  
518 5% 62%  
519 4% 57% Median
520 14% 53%  
521 2% 40%  
522 11% 38%  
523 2% 27%  
524 2% 25%  
525 3% 24%  
526 3% 21%  
527 7% 18%  
528 2% 11%  
529 0.7% 9%  
530 4% 8%  
531 0.7% 4%  
532 1.4% 3%  
533 0.6% 2%  
534 0.3% 1.3%  
535 0.3% 1.0%  
536 0.1% 0.6%  
537 0.1% 0.5%  
538 0.1% 0.4%  
539 0.1% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.4% 99.7%  
435 0.2% 99.3%  
436 0% 99.1%  
437 0.4% 99.0%  
438 0.4% 98.7%  
439 1.3% 98%  
440 0.3% 97%  
441 0.8% 97%  
442 0.8% 96%  
443 0.3% 95%  
444 1.4% 95%  
445 2% 93%  
446 1.2% 91%  
447 0.3% 90%  
448 8% 90%  
449 3% 82%  
450 3% 79%  
451 6% 76%  
452 2% 70%  
453 4% 67%  
454 10% 63% Median
455 7% 54%  
456 9% 47%  
457 6% 37%  
458 2% 31%  
459 4% 29%  
460 11% 25%  
461 1.0% 14%  
462 0.8% 13%  
463 4% 12%  
464 1.4% 8%  
465 0.5% 7%  
466 1.1% 6%  
467 1.0% 5%  
468 0.9% 4%  
469 0.3% 3%  
470 0.4% 3%  
471 0.9% 2%  
472 0.1% 1.4%  
473 0.5% 1.3%  
474 0.3% 0.8%  
475 0.1% 0.5%  
476 0.2% 0.4%  
477 0% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0.1% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.3% 99.7%  
436 0.9% 99.4%  
437 0.2% 98%  
438 0.5% 98%  
439 0.9% 98%  
440 0.2% 97%  
441 0.3% 97%  
442 0.2% 96%  
443 0.1% 96%  
444 0.6% 96%  
445 3% 95%  
446 1.3% 92%  
447 6% 91%  
448 10% 85%  
449 4% 75%  
450 7% 71%  
451 2% 65%  
452 1.1% 63%  
453 1.2% 62%  
454 0.9% 61% Median
455 2% 60%  
456 12% 58%  
457 5% 47%  
458 2% 42%  
459 20% 40%  
460 8% 20%  
461 2% 12%  
462 1.2% 10%  
463 0.4% 9%  
464 0.5% 9%  
465 0.4% 8%  
466 0.7% 8%  
467 0.5% 7%  
468 2% 6%  
469 2% 4%  
470 1.0% 3%  
471 0.7% 2%  
472 0.3% 1.1%  
473 0.3% 0.7%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0% 0.3%  
476 0% 0.3%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.2% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0.3% 99.6%  
390 0.3% 99.3%  
391 0.3% 99.0%  
392 0.5% 98.7%  
393 0.6% 98%  
394 0.2% 98%  
395 1.0% 97%  
396 0.9% 96%  
397 3% 95%  
398 1.5% 93%  
399 0.8% 91%  
400 1.4% 90%  
401 10% 89%  
402 1.2% 79%  
403 2% 77%  
404 6% 75%  
405 2% 70%  
406 7% 68%  
407 1.1% 60%  
408 9% 59% Median
409 3% 50%  
410 4% 47%  
411 1.3% 43%  
412 4% 41%  
413 9% 37%  
414 3% 28%  
415 2% 25%  
416 11% 23%  
417 0.4% 12%  
418 1.3% 11%  
419 3% 10%  
420 0.8% 7% Last Result
421 0.9% 6%  
422 1.0% 5%  
423 1.5% 4%  
424 0.4% 3%  
425 0.3% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.5% 2%  
428 0.5% 1.1%  
429 0.2% 0.6%  
430 0% 0.4%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.2% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.1% 99.6%  
378 0.2% 99.5%  
379 0.5% 99.4%  
380 0.1% 98.8%  
381 0.6% 98.7%  
382 0.6% 98%  
383 1.1% 98%  
384 1.3% 96%  
385 1.1% 95%  
386 0.3% 94%  
387 1.5% 94%  
388 2% 92%  
389 4% 91%  
390 10% 87%  
391 1.1% 77%  
392 1.5% 76%  
393 2% 74%  
394 4% 73%  
395 8% 68%  
396 2% 60%  
397 6% 58% Median
398 3% 52%  
399 1.1% 49%  
400 10% 47%  
401 15% 38%  
402 2% 22%  
403 2% 21%  
404 1.4% 19%  
405 0.7% 17%  
406 5% 16%  
407 0.8% 12%  
408 5% 11%  
409 0.5% 6%  
410 1.2% 5%  
411 2% 4%  
412 0.6% 3%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.1% 2%  
415 0.4% 1.5%  
416 0.1% 1.0%  
417 0.4% 0.9%  
418 0.2% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.4% 99.7%  
377 0.1% 99.4%  
378 0.2% 99.2%  
379 0.3% 99.0%  
380 0.3% 98.7%  
381 0.2% 98%  
382 2% 98%  
383 1.0% 97%  
384 1.2% 96%  
385 0.6% 94%  
386 0.7% 94%  
387 1.3% 93%  
388 2% 92%  
389 2% 90%  
390 9% 88%  
391 3% 79%  
392 4% 76%  
393 1.4% 72%  
394 2% 71%  
395 6% 69%  
396 10% 63%  
397 5% 54% Median
398 4% 49%  
399 6% 45% Last Result
400 0.9% 39%  
401 1.1% 38%  
402 5% 37%  
403 7% 33%  
404 8% 25%  
405 6% 17%  
406 0.7% 11%  
407 2% 10%  
408 0.2% 8%  
409 2% 8%  
410 2% 6%  
411 0.9% 4%  
412 0.8% 3%  
413 0.1% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.4%  
417 0.3% 1.0%  
418 0.3% 0.7%  
419 0.2% 0.4%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.2% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.6%  
331 0.1% 99.6%  
332 0.4% 99.5%  
333 0.1% 99.1%  
334 1.1% 99.0%  
335 0.2% 98%  
336 0.5% 98%  
337 0.6% 97%  
338 0.8% 97%  
339 2% 96%  
340 2% 94% Last Result
341 1.0% 92%  
342 4% 91%  
343 7% 87%  
344 2% 80%  
345 2% 78%  
346 1.1% 76%  
347 6% 75%  
348 3% 70%  
349 1.5% 67%  
350 3% 65%  
351 8% 63% Median
352 8% 55%  
353 10% 47%  
354 5% 37%  
355 1.3% 32% Majority
356 6% 31%  
357 1.1% 25%  
358 3% 24%  
359 2% 21%  
360 1.3% 19%  
361 9% 18%  
362 2% 9%  
363 1.5% 7%  
364 2% 6%  
365 0.6% 4%  
366 0.5% 3%  
367 0.8% 3%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.5% 2%  
370 0.2% 1.3%  
371 0.2% 1.1%  
372 0.3% 0.9%  
373 0.2% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
307 0.1% 100%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0.2% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.5%  
313 0.1% 99.5%  
314 0.1% 99.4%  
315 0.1% 99.3%  
316 0.1% 99.2%  
317 0.4% 99.1%  
318 0.4% 98.6%  
319 1.0% 98%  
320 2% 97%  
321 2% 96%  
322 2% 94%  
323 3% 92%  
324 6% 89%  
325 2% 82%  
326 3% 80% Last Result
327 1.2% 78%  
328 2% 76%  
329 2% 74%  
330 3% 73%  
331 1.4% 70%  
332 5% 68% Median
333 10% 63%  
334 8% 54%  
335 4% 46%  
336 12% 42%  
337 8% 31%  
338 8% 23%  
339 2% 15%  
340 2% 13%  
341 0.7% 11%  
342 1.2% 10%  
343 1.3% 9%  
344 0.4% 8%  
345 1.3% 7%  
346 0.6% 6%  
347 1.0% 5%  
348 1.0% 4%  
349 1.0% 3%  
350 0.6% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.7% 1.4%  
353 0.3% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.8%  
279 0.3% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.1%  
282 0.3% 98.9%  
283 0.8% 98.6%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.6% 97%  
286 1.0% 97%  
287 0.6% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 1.2% 93%  
290 2% 92%  
291 2% 90%  
292 1.0% 88%  
293 3% 87%  
294 10% 84%  
295 3% 75%  
296 2% 72%  
297 8% 70%  
298 0.5% 62%  
299 4% 61%  
300 2% 57% Last Result
301 3% 55% Median
302 9% 52%  
303 3% 42%  
304 10% 39%  
305 2% 29%  
306 10% 28%  
307 1.3% 18%  
308 6% 16%  
309 0.9% 10%  
310 3% 10%  
311 0.5% 7%  
312 1.4% 6%  
313 0.7% 5%  
314 0.4% 4%  
315 1.1% 4%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 1.3% 2%  
318 0.5% 1.1%  
319 0.1% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.4%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.2% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.6%  
281 0.5% 99.4%  
282 0.5% 98.9%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.4% 98%  
286 1.5% 97%  
287 1.0% 96%  
288 0.9% 95%  
289 0.8% 94% Last Result
290 3% 93%  
291 1.3% 90%  
292 0.4% 89%  
293 11% 88%  
294 2% 77%  
295 3% 75%  
296 9% 72%  
297 4% 63%  
298 1.3% 59%  
299 4% 57%  
300 3% 53%  
301 9% 50% Median
302 1.1% 41%  
303 7% 40%  
304 2% 32%  
305 6% 30%  
306 2% 25%  
307 1.2% 23%  
308 10% 21%  
309 1.4% 11%  
310 0.8% 10%  
311 1.5% 9%  
312 3% 7%  
313 0.9% 5%  
314 1.0% 4%  
315 0.2% 3%  
316 0.6% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.3% 1.3%  
319 0.3% 1.0%  
320 0.3% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.4%  
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0.2% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0.3% 99.8%  
224 0.2% 99.4%  
225 0.5% 99.3%  
226 0.3% 98.8%  
227 0.9% 98%  
228 0.2% 98%  
229 0.9% 97%  
230 1.1% 96%  
231 0.9% 95%  
232 3% 94%  
233 2% 91%  
234 2% 89%  
235 1.4% 88%  
236 2% 86%  
237 2% 84%  
238 3% 81%  
239 8% 78%  
240 8% 70%  
241 3% 62%  
242 6% 59%  
243 1.0% 53%  
244 10% 52% Median
245 1.0% 42%  
246 8% 41%  
247 2% 34%  
248 13% 32%  
249 0.3% 19%  
250 4% 18%  
251 0.7% 14%  
252 5% 14%  
253 0.7% 8%  
254 3% 8%  
255 0.4% 5%  
256 0.9% 4%  
257 0.5% 3%  
258 0.8% 3%  
259 0.2% 2%  
260 0.9% 2%  
261 0.3% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0.2% 0.5%  
264 0.1% 0.3%  
265 0.1% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.7%  
161 0.4% 99.6%  
162 0.3% 99.2%  
163 0.5% 98.8%  
164 0.4% 98%  
165 0.5% 98%  
166 0.8% 97%  
167 0.7% 97%  
168 1.0% 96%  
169 2% 95%  
170 3% 93%  
171 3% 91%  
172 9% 88%  
173 2% 78%  
174 4% 77%  
175 13% 72%  
176 2% 60%  
177 3% 57%  
178 3% 54%  
179 3% 51% Median
180 5% 48%  
181 7% 44%  
182 8% 37%  
183 2% 29%  
184 14% 27%  
185 2% 13%  
186 2% 11%  
187 1.0% 9%  
188 1.4% 8%  
189 2% 6%  
190 0.5% 4%  
191 0.4% 4%  
192 1.0% 3%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.4% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.2%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.1% 0.6%  
198 0.3% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.3% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.5%  
162 0.3% 99.4%  
163 0.2% 99.1%  
164 0.4% 98.9%  
165 2% 98%  
166 1.3% 96%  
167 0.8% 95%  
168 0.9% 94%  
169 3% 93%  
170 0.6% 90%  
171 3% 89%  
172 1.0% 86%  
173 4% 85%  
174 1.2% 81%  
175 3% 80%  
176 9% 76%  
177 3% 67%  
178 8% 64%  
179 1.3% 56% Median
180 22% 55%  
181 0.8% 33%  
182 10% 32%  
183 3% 22%  
184 3% 20%  
185 4% 17%  
186 3% 13%  
187 2% 9%  
188 1.0% 8%  
189 0.9% 6%  
190 0.5% 6%  
191 2% 5%  
192 0.4% 3%  
193 0.6% 2%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.4%  
196 0.5% 1.0%  
197 0.2% 0.6%  
198 0.2% 0.4%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations