Opinion Poll by Kantar, 16–22 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.0% 28.7–31.4% 28.4–31.7% 28.1–32.1% 27.5–32.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 17.0–19.2% 16.7–19.5% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–7.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 224 214–234 212–237 209–240 205–246
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 126–143 124–145 122–147 119–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–120 103–122 101–124 97–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–89 74–91 72–92 69–96
Die Linke 69 60 54–65 53–67 51–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 47–57 45–59 44–60 42–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–50 39–52 38–53 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.2% 99.6%  
206 0.3% 99.4%  
207 0.4% 99.1%  
208 0.6% 98.7%  
209 1.0% 98%  
210 0.8% 97%  
211 1.0% 96%  
212 2% 95%  
213 2% 94%  
214 2% 92%  
215 3% 90%  
216 4% 87%  
217 4% 84%  
218 4% 80%  
219 4% 76%  
220 4% 72%  
221 5% 68%  
222 6% 63%  
223 5% 57%  
224 6% 53% Median
225 5% 46%  
226 4% 41%  
227 5% 37%  
228 6% 32%  
229 4% 26%  
230 3% 22%  
231 3% 19%  
232 3% 16%  
233 2% 13%  
234 2% 11%  
235 2% 9%  
236 1.1% 6%  
237 1.1% 5%  
238 1.0% 4%  
239 0.6% 3%  
240 0.5% 3%  
241 0.4% 2%  
242 0.4% 2%  
243 0.3% 1.4%  
244 0.4% 1.1%  
245 0.2% 0.8%  
246 0.1% 0.6%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.4% 99.3%  
121 0.8% 98.8%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 2% 97%  
124 1.5% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 3% 93%  
127 2% 89%  
128 5% 87%  
129 4% 82%  
130 3% 79%  
131 7% 76%  
132 5% 69%  
133 6% 64%  
134 8% 57% Median
135 4% 49%  
136 9% 45%  
137 5% 36%  
138 7% 31%  
139 4% 24%  
140 4% 20%  
141 3% 16%  
142 2% 13%  
143 2% 10%  
144 2% 8%  
145 2% 7%  
146 1.0% 5%  
147 1.4% 4%  
148 0.6% 2%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.2%  
151 0.2% 0.9%  
152 0.3% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.4%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.6% 99.5%  
99 0.5% 98.9%  
100 0.7% 98%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 1.2% 97%  
103 1.5% 96%  
104 3% 94%  
105 2% 91%  
106 4% 89%  
107 7% 85%  
108 4% 78%  
109 9% 74%  
110 6% 65%  
111 6% 59%  
112 7% 52% Median
113 5% 45%  
114 6% 40%  
115 6% 34%  
116 3% 28%  
117 6% 25%  
118 4% 19%  
119 3% 15%  
120 4% 11%  
121 2% 7%  
122 1.4% 5%  
123 1.4% 4%  
124 0.7% 3%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.3% 1.4%  
127 0.3% 1.1%  
128 0.2% 0.8%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 99.0%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 93%  
76 4% 90%  
77 5% 86%  
78 6% 81%  
79 6% 76%  
80 6% 69%  
81 8% 63%  
82 8% 55% Median
83 7% 47%  
84 7% 40%  
85 6% 33%  
86 7% 27%  
87 5% 20%  
88 3% 15%  
89 4% 11%  
90 2% 7%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.4% 4%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.5% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 0.8% 99.2%  
51 1.0% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 4% 95%  
54 4% 91%  
55 6% 87%  
56 6% 82%  
57 8% 76%  
58 8% 67%  
59 8% 60%  
60 9% 51% Median
61 8% 42%  
62 7% 34%  
63 7% 27%  
64 6% 20%  
65 4% 14%  
66 3% 10%  
67 2% 7%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.1% 3% Last Result
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 1.0% 99.1%  
44 0.9% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95% Last Result
47 4% 91%  
48 6% 86%  
49 7% 81%  
50 11% 73%  
51 7% 62%  
52 10% 55% Median
53 12% 45%  
54 6% 33%  
55 6% 27%  
56 6% 21%  
57 6% 15%  
58 2% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.5% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0.2% 98%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 5% 93%  
41 7% 88%  
42 8% 81%  
43 9% 73%  
44 11% 65%  
45 10% 54% Median
46 9% 44%  
47 8% 35%  
48 9% 26%  
49 5% 18%  
50 5% 13%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.4% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 522 100% 513–532 510–535 508–539 504–563
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 445–465 442–468 439–470 431–475
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 433 100% 422–442 419–445 416–448 407–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 411 100% 401–421 397–425 394–428 390–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 404 100% 392–413 389–416 386–418 377–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 388 100% 377–399 375–402 372–406 367–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 358 66% 348–369 345–372 342–376 337–387
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 321 0% 310–331 306–334 303–336 289–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 305 0% 296–317 293–320 291–323 285–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 291 0% 281–302 277–305 273–307 257–312
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 237–257 234–260 232–263 227–270
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 164–181 161–183 159–186 154–192
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 157 0% 149–165 146–168 141–171 115–175

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.8%  
503 0.1% 99.7%  
504 0.2% 99.5%  
505 0.3% 99.4%  
506 0.3% 99.1%  
507 0.7% 98.7%  
508 0.6% 98%  
509 1.2% 97%  
510 2% 96%  
511 2% 95%  
512 3% 93%  
513 2% 91%  
514 2% 89%  
515 3% 87%  
516 4% 84%  
517 3% 80%  
518 5% 77%  
519 7% 72%  
520 5% 65%  
521 5% 60%  
522 7% 54% Median
523 5% 47%  
524 5% 42%  
525 4% 37%  
526 4% 33%  
527 2% 28%  
528 5% 26%  
529 4% 21%  
530 3% 16%  
531 3% 13%  
532 2% 10%  
533 2% 8%  
534 1.1% 6%  
535 0.9% 5%  
536 0.7% 4%  
537 0.3% 4%  
538 0.5% 3%  
539 0.3% 3%  
540 0.2% 2%  
541 0.1% 2%  
542 0.1% 2%  
543 0.1% 2%  
544 0% 2%  
545 0% 2%  
546 0% 2%  
547 0% 2%  
548 0.1% 2%  
549 0% 2%  
550 0% 2%  
551 0.1% 2%  
552 0.1% 2%  
553 0.1% 1.4%  
554 0.1% 1.4%  
555 0.1% 1.3%  
556 0.1% 1.2%  
557 0.1% 1.1%  
558 0.1% 1.0%  
559 0.1% 0.9%  
560 0.1% 0.8%  
561 0.1% 0.7%  
562 0.1% 0.7%  
563 0.1% 0.6%  
564 0.1% 0.5%  
565 0.1% 0.3%  
566 0.1% 0.3%  
567 0.1% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.5%  
432 0.1% 99.5%  
433 0.2% 99.4%  
434 0.2% 99.2%  
435 0.2% 99.0%  
436 0.2% 98.8%  
437 0.4% 98.6%  
438 0.5% 98%  
439 0.6% 98%  
440 1.0% 97%  
441 0.9% 96%  
442 1.4% 95%  
443 2% 94%  
444 1.2% 92%  
445 2% 91%  
446 3% 89%  
447 2% 86%  
448 3% 83%  
449 4% 81%  
450 4% 77%  
451 4% 73%  
452 5% 69%  
453 5% 63%  
454 5% 58%  
455 6% 53% Median
456 4% 47%  
457 5% 43%  
458 4% 38%  
459 6% 34%  
460 4% 28%  
461 3% 24%  
462 3% 21%  
463 4% 18%  
464 3% 14%  
465 2% 11%  
466 2% 9%  
467 2% 7%  
468 1.1% 5%  
469 1.1% 4%  
470 0.8% 3%  
471 0.6% 2%  
472 0.5% 2%  
473 0.2% 1.1%  
474 0.3% 0.8%  
475 0.2% 0.6%  
476 0.1% 0.4%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.1% 99.6%  
408 0.1% 99.5%  
409 0.1% 99.4%  
410 0.1% 99.3%  
411 0.2% 99.2%  
412 0.2% 99.0%  
413 0.3% 98.8%  
414 0.4% 98.5%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.6% 98%  
417 0.7% 97%  
418 1.0% 96%  
419 1.4% 95%  
420 1.1% 94%  
421 2% 93%  
422 2% 91%  
423 2% 89%  
424 2% 87%  
425 2% 85%  
426 4% 83%  
427 3% 78%  
428 6% 75%  
429 4% 69%  
430 5% 66%  
431 3% 61%  
432 5% 58%  
433 6% 53% Median
434 5% 48%  
435 8% 42%  
436 4% 34%  
437 4% 30%  
438 3% 26%  
439 3% 23%  
440 3% 21%  
441 3% 17%  
442 4% 14%  
443 2% 10%  
444 2% 8%  
445 1.2% 6%  
446 0.7% 5%  
447 1.1% 4%  
448 0.7% 3%  
449 0.6% 2%  
450 0.5% 2%  
451 0.4% 1.2%  
452 0.2% 0.8%  
453 0.1% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.9%  
388 0.2% 99.7%  
389 0.1% 99.6%  
390 0.1% 99.5%  
391 0.4% 99.4%  
392 0.3% 99.0%  
393 0.3% 98.7%  
394 1.0% 98%  
395 0.9% 97%  
396 0.5% 97%  
397 2% 96%  
398 2% 95%  
399 1.1% 93%  
400 1.4% 91%  
401 3% 90%  
402 3% 87%  
403 2% 84%  
404 3% 82%  
405 5% 78%  
406 3% 73%  
407 6% 70%  
408 6% 64%  
409 3% 57%  
410 2% 54% Median
411 8% 52%  
412 6% 45%  
413 5% 39%  
414 4% 34%  
415 7% 30%  
416 3% 24%  
417 2% 21%  
418 4% 18%  
419 2% 15%  
420 1.4% 12%  
421 3% 11%  
422 2% 8%  
423 0.4% 6%  
424 0.5% 6%  
425 2% 5%  
426 0.5% 4%  
427 0.3% 3%  
428 0.4% 3%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.2% 2%  
433 0.1% 2%  
434 0.1% 1.5%  
435 0.1% 1.4%  
436 0.1% 1.3%  
437 0% 1.2%  
438 0.1% 1.1%  
439 0.1% 1.0%  
440 0.1% 1.0%  
441 0.2% 0.8%  
442 0% 0.6%  
443 0.1% 0.6%  
444 0.1% 0.5%  
445 0% 0.5%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.3%  
448 0.1% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0% 99.6%  
377 0.2% 99.5%  
378 0.1% 99.4%  
379 0.1% 99.3%  
380 0.2% 99.1%  
381 0.1% 99.0%  
382 0.3% 98.8%  
383 0.2% 98.5%  
384 0.3% 98%  
385 0.4% 98%  
386 0.9% 98%  
387 0.8% 97%  
388 0.6% 96%  
389 1.0% 95%  
390 2% 94%  
391 2% 93%  
392 2% 91%  
393 2% 89%  
394 4% 86%  
395 3% 83%  
396 4% 80%  
397 4% 75%  
398 3% 72%  
399 2% 69%  
400 3% 66%  
401 5% 63%  
402 4% 58%  
403 4% 55% Median
404 5% 51%  
405 6% 46%  
406 7% 40%  
407 5% 34%  
408 6% 29%  
409 4% 22%  
410 3% 18%  
411 3% 15%  
412 2% 12%  
413 2% 10%  
414 1.4% 8%  
415 1.2% 6%  
416 0.8% 5%  
417 1.3% 4%  
418 0.6% 3%  
419 0.7% 2%  
420 0.4% 2% Last Result
421 0.4% 1.5%  
422 0.2% 1.0%  
423 0.2% 0.8%  
424 0.2% 0.6%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0.5% 98.9%  
371 0.6% 98%  
372 0.7% 98%  
373 0.6% 97%  
374 1.3% 96%  
375 1.0% 95%  
376 1.4% 94%  
377 3% 93%  
378 2% 90%  
379 3% 88%  
380 3% 85%  
381 3% 82%  
382 3% 79%  
383 4% 75%  
384 6% 72%  
385 3% 65%  
386 5% 62%  
387 5% 57%  
388 5% 52% Median
389 5% 47%  
390 3% 42%  
391 6% 39%  
392 3% 33%  
393 5% 29%  
394 4% 25%  
395 2% 20%  
396 3% 18%  
397 3% 15%  
398 2% 13%  
399 2% 10% Last Result
400 1.4% 8%  
401 1.1% 7%  
402 0.7% 6%  
403 1.1% 5%  
404 0.6% 4%  
405 0.5% 3%  
406 0.4% 3%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.2% 2%  
410 0.1% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.5%  
412 0.1% 1.3%  
413 0.1% 1.2%  
414 0.1% 1.1%  
415 0.1% 1.0%  
416 0.1% 0.9%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.1% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.3% 99.5%  
339 0.4% 99.2%  
340 0.4% 98.8% Last Result
341 0.3% 98%  
342 1.0% 98%  
343 1.0% 97%  
344 0.7% 96%  
345 1.4% 95%  
346 3% 94%  
347 1.4% 92%  
348 2% 90%  
349 3% 88%  
350 4% 85%  
351 2% 81%  
352 4% 79%  
353 4% 75%  
354 5% 71%  
355 2% 66% Majority
356 6% 64%  
357 5% 58%  
358 4% 53% Median
359 6% 49%  
360 5% 43%  
361 2% 38%  
362 6% 36%  
363 5% 29%  
364 3% 24%  
365 2% 21%  
366 5% 19%  
367 3% 14%  
368 2% 12%  
369 2% 10%  
370 2% 8%  
371 1.2% 7%  
372 1.0% 6%  
373 0.6% 5%  
374 0.7% 4%  
375 0.3% 3%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.1% 1.3%  
382 0.2% 1.2%  
383 0.1% 1.0%  
384 0.1% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.5%  
291 0% 99.4%  
292 0.1% 99.4%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0.1% 99.2%  
295 0.1% 99.1%  
296 0.2% 99.0%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0.2% 98.7%  
299 0.2% 98.6%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.6% 97%  
305 0.9% 97%  
306 0.7% 96%  
307 0.7% 95%  
308 2% 94%  
309 2% 92%  
310 1.5% 90%  
311 2% 89%  
312 3% 87%  
313 3% 84%  
314 4% 81%  
315 4% 77%  
316 3% 73%  
317 4% 70%  
318 6% 66%  
319 3% 60%  
320 4% 57%  
321 7% 52% Median
322 5% 46%  
323 3% 41%  
324 4% 38%  
325 6% 34%  
326 6% 28% Last Result
327 3% 22%  
328 2% 19%  
329 3% 17%  
330 4% 14%  
331 2% 10%  
332 0.8% 8%  
333 2% 7%  
334 1.3% 5%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.8% 3%  
337 0.6% 2%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.4%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.2% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0.1% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.4%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0.4% 99.0%  
289 0.4% 98.5% Last Result
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.6% 98%  
292 1.3% 97%  
293 0.8% 96%  
294 1.2% 95%  
295 1.4% 94%  
296 2% 92%  
297 2% 90%  
298 3% 88%  
299 3% 85%  
300 4% 82%  
301 6% 78%  
302 5% 71%  
303 7% 66%  
304 6% 60%  
305 5% 54%  
306 4% 49% Median
307 4% 45%  
308 5% 42%  
309 3% 37%  
310 2% 34%  
311 3% 31%  
312 4% 28%  
313 4% 25%  
314 3% 20%  
315 4% 17%  
316 2% 14%  
317 2% 11%  
318 2% 9%  
319 2% 7%  
320 1.0% 6%  
321 0.6% 5%  
322 0.8% 4%  
323 0.9% 3%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.2% 2%  
327 0.3% 1.5%  
328 0.1% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 1.0%  
330 0.1% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0.2% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0% 99.5%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.4%  
261 0.1% 99.3%  
262 0.1% 99.2%  
263 0.1% 99.1%  
264 0.1% 99.1%  
265 0.1% 98.9%  
266 0.1% 98.8%  
267 0.1% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 98.6%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.5% 97%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 0.7% 96%  
277 1.1% 96%  
278 1.0% 95%  
279 1.0% 94%  
280 2% 93%  
281 2% 91%  
282 3% 89%  
283 2% 86%  
284 4% 84%  
285 3% 80%  
286 4% 77%  
287 4% 73%  
288 4% 69%  
289 5% 65%  
290 6% 60%  
291 5% 54% Median
292 5% 49%  
293 6% 44%  
294 3% 38%  
295 6% 35%  
296 3% 28%  
297 3% 25%  
298 4% 23%  
299 5% 19%  
300 2% 14% Last Result
301 2% 12%  
302 2% 10%  
303 2% 8%  
304 1.2% 6%  
305 1.2% 5%  
306 0.9% 4%  
307 0.9% 3%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.5% 2%  
310 0.3% 1.1%  
311 0.3% 0.9%  
312 0.2% 0.6%  
313 0.1% 0.4%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.2% 99.7%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.3% 99.3%  
229 0.3% 99.0%  
230 0.4% 98.7%  
231 0.7% 98%  
232 0.7% 98%  
233 0.9% 97%  
234 2% 96%  
235 1.3% 94%  
236 3% 93%  
237 2% 90%  
238 3% 89%  
239 3% 86%  
240 4% 82%  
241 4% 78%  
242 5% 75%  
243 4% 70%  
244 5% 66%  
245 6% 60%  
246 4% 54% Median
247 7% 50%  
248 5% 44%  
249 4% 39%  
250 4% 35%  
251 5% 31%  
252 4% 26%  
253 4% 23%  
254 2% 19%  
255 4% 16%  
256 2% 13%  
257 2% 10%  
258 2% 9%  
259 0.8% 6%  
260 1.0% 6%  
261 1.2% 5%  
262 0.7% 3%  
263 0.5% 3%  
264 0.5% 2%  
265 0.4% 2%  
266 0.2% 1.3%  
267 0.2% 1.1%  
268 0.1% 0.8%  
269 0.1% 0.7%  
270 0.2% 0.6%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0.1% 0.3%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0.1% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.7%  
154 0.2% 99.6%  
155 0.4% 99.4%  
156 0.3% 99.0%  
157 0.2% 98.7%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 2% 98%  
160 0.9% 96%  
161 1.0% 95%  
162 0.9% 94%  
163 3% 93%  
164 6% 91%  
165 5% 85%  
166 3% 80%  
167 5% 77%  
168 5% 73%  
169 8% 67%  
170 5% 59%  
171 4% 55%  
172 8% 51% Median
173 5% 43%  
174 4% 38%  
175 3% 34%  
176 3% 31%  
177 6% 28%  
178 6% 22%  
179 2% 17%  
180 2% 14%  
181 3% 13%  
182 3% 9%  
183 2% 7%  
184 0.8% 4%  
185 1.0% 4%  
186 0.7% 3%  
187 0.5% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.5%  
189 0.2% 1.1%  
190 0.2% 1.0%  
191 0.2% 0.7%  
192 0.2% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0% 99.7%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0% 99.4%  
117 0.2% 99.4%  
118 0.1% 99.3%  
119 0.1% 99.1%  
120 0.1% 99.1%  
121 0% 98.9%  
122 0.1% 98.9%  
123 0.1% 98.8%  
124 0.1% 98.7%  
125 0.2% 98.6%  
126 0% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0% 98%  
129 0% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0% 98%  
132 0% 98%  
133 0% 98%  
134 0% 98%  
135 0% 98%  
136 0% 98%  
137 0.1% 98%  
138 0.1% 98%  
139 0.2% 98%  
140 0.1% 98%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 0.3% 97%  
143 0.4% 97%  
144 0.6% 97%  
145 1.0% 96%  
146 1.2% 95%  
147 1.4% 94%  
148 1.5% 92%  
149 4% 91%  
150 2% 87%  
151 5% 85%  
152 4% 80%  
153 5% 76%  
154 6% 71%  
155 7% 65%  
156 6% 58%  
157 5% 52% Median
158 8% 47%  
159 7% 39%  
160 4% 33%  
161 5% 29%  
162 4% 24%  
163 4% 20%  
164 4% 16%  
165 3% 13%  
166 2% 10%  
167 1.1% 7%  
168 2% 6%  
169 0.8% 4%  
170 1.0% 4%  
171 0.7% 3%  
172 0.7% 2%  
173 0.2% 1.2%  
174 0.4% 0.9%  
175 0.2% 0.5%  
176 0.2% 0.4%  
177 0% 0.2%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations