Opinion Poll by Forsa, 20–24 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.6–32.3% 29.2–32.7% 28.9–33.0% 28.3–33.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.5% 16.3–19.8% 15.8–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.2% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 235 225–246 222–249 220–252 215–260
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 129–146 126–148 124–151 120–155
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 107 99–115 97–117 95–119 92–123
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 63–76 61–77 59–79 57–83
Die Linke 69 61 55–68 54–69 52–71 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 49–60 47–62 46–64 44–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–51 40–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.2% 99.7%  
215 0.2% 99.6%  
216 0.2% 99.3%  
217 0.3% 99.1%  
218 0.6% 98.8%  
219 0.6% 98%  
220 1.0% 98%  
221 1.0% 97%  
222 1.3% 96%  
223 1.4% 94%  
224 2% 93%  
225 2% 91%  
226 3% 89%  
227 3% 86%  
228 4% 83%  
229 3% 79%  
230 5% 76%  
231 5% 71%  
232 4% 66%  
233 4% 62%  
234 7% 58%  
235 4% 51% Median
236 5% 48%  
237 4% 43%  
238 5% 39%  
239 5% 34%  
240 4% 29%  
241 3% 25%  
242 3% 22%  
243 2% 19%  
244 4% 16%  
245 2% 13%  
246 2% 11%  
247 2% 9%  
248 1.0% 7%  
249 1.0% 6%  
250 1.1% 5%  
251 0.5% 4%  
252 0.6% 3%  
253 0.4% 2%  
254 0.3% 2%  
255 0.5% 2%  
256 0.2% 1.2%  
257 0.2% 1.0%  
258 0.2% 0.9%  
259 0.1% 0.6%  
260 0.1% 0.6%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0% 0.3%  
263 0.1% 0.3%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.3% 99.4%  
122 0.4% 99.1%  
123 0.6% 98.7%  
124 0.9% 98%  
125 1.4% 97%  
126 2% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 3% 93%  
129 3% 90%  
130 4% 87%  
131 3% 83%  
132 4% 80%  
133 6% 76%  
134 6% 70%  
135 5% 64%  
136 5% 58%  
137 6% 54% Median
138 8% 48%  
139 6% 40%  
140 4% 35%  
141 5% 30%  
142 5% 25%  
143 4% 20%  
144 3% 17%  
145 3% 14%  
146 3% 11%  
147 2% 8%  
148 1.5% 6%  
149 0.8% 5%  
150 1.0% 4%  
151 1.1% 3%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.3%  
154 0.2% 1.0%  
155 0.3% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.3% 99.5%  
93 0.4% 99.2%  
94 0.6% 98.8%  
95 1.0% 98%  
96 1.4% 97%  
97 2% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 3% 92%  
100 3% 89%  
101 4% 86%  
102 6% 82%  
103 5% 76%  
104 4% 71%  
105 7% 67%  
106 5% 60%  
107 6% 54% Median
108 6% 48%  
109 7% 42%  
110 5% 35%  
111 5% 29%  
112 6% 25%  
113 4% 19%  
114 3% 15%  
115 3% 12%  
116 2% 9%  
117 2% 7%  
118 2% 5%  
119 0.9% 3%  
120 0.8% 2%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.3% 1.0%  
123 0.3% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 0.6% 99.3%  
59 1.2% 98.6%  
60 1.4% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 5% 91%  
64 5% 86%  
65 6% 80%  
66 6% 75%  
67 8% 69%  
68 9% 60%  
69 7% 51% Median
70 7% 44%  
71 7% 37%  
72 8% 30%  
73 5% 22%  
74 3% 17%  
75 3% 14%  
76 3% 11%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.3% 5%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.8% 99.2%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 89%  
57 6% 84%  
58 7% 78%  
59 8% 71%  
60 8% 63%  
61 8% 55% Median
62 10% 47%  
63 6% 38%  
64 7% 31%  
65 5% 24%  
66 4% 19%  
67 4% 15%  
68 4% 11%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 1.3% 4%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.2%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.5%  
45 0.9% 98.9%  
46 2% 98% Last Result
47 2% 96%  
48 3% 94%  
49 5% 91%  
50 6% 85%  
51 7% 80%  
52 8% 73%  
53 8% 65%  
54 11% 57% Median
55 7% 46%  
56 9% 40%  
57 7% 31%  
58 6% 24%  
59 6% 18%  
60 4% 12%  
61 3% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.1% 4%  
64 1.2% 3%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 0.5% 97%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 6% 92%  
42 8% 87%  
43 10% 79%  
44 8% 68%  
45 6% 61%  
46 7% 54% Median
47 10% 47%  
48 11% 37%  
49 8% 26%  
50 4% 17%  
51 3% 13%  
52 2% 10%  
53 3% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.3% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.3%  
57 0.2% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 533 100% 524–543 521–546 519–560 514–574
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 472 100% 461–483 458–485 455–488 448–493
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 442 100% 430–453 428–455 425–457 415–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 426 100% 415–437 413–443 410–449 405–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 404 100% 392–415 389–418 385–420 376–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 385–408 383–412 380–417 375–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 358 65% 347–370 344–374 342–379 337–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 335 1.1% 323–346 319–349 314–352 303–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 305 0% 294–317 291–320 289–324 283–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 290 0% 278–300 274–303 267–306 252–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 244 0% 234–255 231–258 228–261 224–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 158–178 156–181 153–183 150–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 153 0% 143–162 140–164 121–166 108–171

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.8%  
513 0.1% 99.7%  
514 0.2% 99.6%  
515 0.3% 99.4%  
516 0.3% 99.1%  
517 0.5% 98.8%  
518 0.7% 98%  
519 1.0% 98%  
520 1.3% 97%  
521 1.0% 95%  
522 2% 94%  
523 1.4% 92%  
524 3% 91%  
525 3% 88%  
526 3% 85%  
527 5% 82%  
528 4% 77%  
529 4% 72%  
530 4% 68%  
531 5% 64%  
532 6% 59%  
533 5% 54% Median
534 7% 49%  
535 4% 42%  
536 5% 38%  
537 4% 33%  
538 3% 29%  
539 6% 26%  
540 3% 19%  
541 3% 16%  
542 2% 13%  
543 2% 12%  
544 2% 10%  
545 1.2% 8%  
546 2% 7%  
547 0.4% 5%  
548 0.6% 5%  
549 0.2% 4%  
550 0.2% 4%  
551 0.3% 3%  
552 0.2% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0% 3%  
555 0% 3%  
556 0% 3%  
557 0% 3%  
558 0% 3%  
559 0% 3%  
560 0.1% 3%  
561 0.1% 2%  
562 0% 2%  
563 0% 2%  
564 0% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 0.3% 2%  
567 0.2% 2%  
568 0.2% 2%  
569 0% 1.5%  
570 0.1% 1.4%  
571 0.2% 1.4%  
572 0.3% 1.2%  
573 0.3% 0.9%  
574 0.1% 0.6%  
575 0% 0.5%  
576 0% 0.4%  
577 0.1% 0.4%  
578 0.1% 0.3%  
579 0.1% 0.2%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.8%  
444 0% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0% 99.7%  
447 0.1% 99.7%  
448 0.2% 99.6%  
449 0.2% 99.4%  
450 0.2% 99.2%  
451 0.2% 99.0%  
452 0.3% 98.8%  
453 0.3% 98.6%  
454 0.6% 98%  
455 0.6% 98%  
456 0.5% 97%  
457 1.1% 97%  
458 2% 95%  
459 2% 94%  
460 2% 92%  
461 2% 91%  
462 2% 89%  
463 3% 86%  
464 3% 84%  
465 3% 80%  
466 5% 78%  
467 4% 73%  
468 4% 69%  
469 4% 65%  
470 4% 61%  
471 5% 57%  
472 6% 52% Median
473 4% 46%  
474 6% 42%  
475 4% 36%  
476 5% 32%  
477 3% 27%  
478 4% 24%  
479 3% 20%  
480 3% 18%  
481 2% 14%  
482 2% 12%  
483 2% 10%  
484 1.4% 8%  
485 2% 7%  
486 1.0% 5%  
487 1.0% 4%  
488 0.8% 3%  
489 0.5% 2%  
490 0.5% 2%  
491 0.5% 1.2%  
492 0.2% 0.7%  
493 0.2% 0.6%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0.1% 0.3%  
496 0.1% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0.1% 99.7%  
415 0.1% 99.6%  
416 0.1% 99.4%  
417 0.1% 99.3%  
418 0.2% 99.2%  
419 0.2% 99.0%  
420 0.2% 98.7%  
421 0.2% 98.5%  
422 0.2% 98%  
423 0.2% 98%  
424 0.3% 98%  
425 0.5% 98%  
426 0.7% 97%  
427 1.2% 96%  
428 1.2% 95%  
429 2% 94%  
430 3% 92%  
431 3% 89%  
432 3% 87%  
433 2% 84%  
434 3% 82%  
435 2% 79%  
436 2% 77%  
437 3% 75%  
438 3% 72%  
439 4% 69%  
440 6% 65%  
441 5% 60%  
442 8% 55% Median
443 7% 47%  
444 6% 40%  
445 3% 34%  
446 5% 31%  
447 3% 26%  
448 2% 23%  
449 2% 21%  
450 3% 20%  
451 2% 17%  
452 3% 15%  
453 3% 12%  
454 2% 9%  
455 2% 6%  
456 1.4% 4%  
457 1.1% 3%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.4% 2%  
460 0.2% 1.2%  
461 0.2% 1.0%  
462 0.2% 0.8%  
463 0.2% 0.6%  
464 0.1% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0.1% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.2% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0.3% 99.4%  
407 0.4% 99.1%  
408 0.4% 98.7%  
409 0.5% 98%  
410 0.7% 98%  
411 0.6% 97%  
412 1.0% 96%  
413 1.3% 95%  
414 2% 94%  
415 3% 93%  
416 2% 90%  
417 3% 87%  
418 3% 84%  
419 3% 81%  
420 4% 78%  
421 3% 74%  
422 4% 72%  
423 5% 67%  
424 4% 63%  
425 7% 59%  
426 5% 52% Median
427 5% 47%  
428 5% 43%  
429 3% 37%  
430 3% 34%  
431 3% 31%  
432 4% 28%  
433 3% 24%  
434 4% 21%  
435 3% 17%  
436 3% 14%  
437 2% 12%  
438 1.3% 10%  
439 1.0% 9%  
440 1.0% 8%  
441 0.9% 7%  
442 0.6% 6%  
443 0.9% 5%  
444 0.7% 4%  
445 0.3% 4%  
446 0.3% 3%  
447 0.2% 3%  
448 0.2% 3%  
449 0.2% 3%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0.1% 2%  
452 0.1% 2%  
453 0.1% 2%  
454 0.1% 2%  
455 0.2% 2%  
456 0.1% 1.5%  
457 0.1% 1.4%  
458 0.2% 1.2%  
459 0.2% 1.1%  
460 0.1% 0.8%  
461 0.1% 0.8%  
462 0.1% 0.6%  
463 0.1% 0.6%  
464 0% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0.1% 99.6%  
377 0.1% 99.4%  
378 0.1% 99.3%  
379 0.1% 99.2%  
380 0.3% 99.1%  
381 0.2% 98.9%  
382 0.2% 98.6%  
383 0.3% 98%  
384 0.4% 98%  
385 0.5% 98%  
386 0.4% 97%  
387 1.0% 97%  
388 0.7% 96%  
389 1.2% 95%  
390 1.0% 94%  
391 2% 93%  
392 1.2% 91%  
393 2% 90%  
394 2% 87%  
395 3% 85%  
396 2% 82%  
397 4% 80%  
398 3% 76%  
399 5% 73%  
400 3% 68%  
401 5% 64%  
402 4% 59%  
403 3% 55%  
404 5% 52% Median
405 4% 47%  
406 4% 42%  
407 5% 38%  
408 4% 33%  
409 3% 29%  
410 5% 26%  
411 2% 21%  
412 4% 18%  
413 2% 15%  
414 2% 13%  
415 2% 10%  
416 2% 9%  
417 1.1% 7%  
418 2% 6%  
419 0.6% 4%  
420 1.0% 3% Last Result
421 0.5% 2%  
422 0.4% 2%  
423 0.4% 1.4%  
424 0.3% 1.0%  
425 0.1% 0.7%  
426 0.2% 0.5%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.5%  
376 0.3% 99.4%  
377 0.3% 99.0%  
378 0.5% 98.8%  
379 0.6% 98%  
380 0.8% 98%  
381 1.0% 97%  
382 0.8% 96%  
383 1.5% 95%  
384 2% 94%  
385 2% 92%  
386 2% 90%  
387 3% 88%  
388 3% 85%  
389 3% 82%  
390 3% 78%  
391 3% 75%  
392 5% 72%  
393 5% 67%  
394 4% 63%  
395 4% 58%  
396 5% 54% Median
397 5% 50%  
398 5% 45%  
399 4% 40% Last Result
400 4% 36%  
401 5% 32%  
402 4% 27%  
403 3% 23%  
404 2% 20%  
405 3% 18%  
406 3% 15%  
407 1.2% 12%  
408 1.1% 11%  
409 2% 10%  
410 1.5% 8%  
411 0.9% 6%  
412 0.8% 6%  
413 0.7% 5%  
414 0.7% 4%  
415 0.5% 3%  
416 0.2% 3%  
417 0.2% 3%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.2% 2%  
420 0.1% 2%  
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.1% 2%  
423 0.1% 2%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.1% 1.4%  
427 0.3% 1.2%  
428 0.1% 0.9%  
429 0.2% 0.8%  
430 0.1% 0.6%  
431 0.1% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.6%  
338 0.3% 99.4%  
339 0.3% 99.0%  
340 0.4% 98.7% Last Result
341 0.7% 98%  
342 0.5% 98%  
343 1.1% 97%  
344 1.2% 96%  
345 2% 95%  
346 1.1% 93%  
347 2% 91%  
348 2% 89%  
349 3% 87%  
350 3% 85%  
351 3% 82%  
352 5% 79%  
353 4% 74%  
354 5% 71%  
355 4% 65% Majority
356 4% 62%  
357 5% 57%  
358 5% 53% Median
359 4% 48%  
360 3% 44%  
361 6% 40%  
362 3% 35%  
363 4% 31%  
364 4% 27%  
365 4% 23%  
366 2% 19%  
367 3% 17%  
368 2% 15%  
369 2% 12%  
370 2% 10%  
371 1.2% 9%  
372 1.2% 8%  
373 0.9% 6%  
374 1.0% 5%  
375 0.5% 5%  
376 0.6% 4%  
377 0.4% 3%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.2% 3%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.2% 2%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0.2% 2%  
385 0.2% 1.4%  
386 0.2% 1.2%  
387 0.1% 1.0%  
388 0.1% 0.9%  
389 0.1% 0.8%  
390 0.1% 0.7%  
391 0.1% 0.6%  
392 0% 0.5%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.1% 99.4%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.2% 99.2%  
307 0.2% 99.1%  
308 0.1% 98.9%  
309 0.1% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.7%  
311 0.3% 98.6%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.4% 98%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 0.4% 97%  
318 0.7% 96%  
319 0.7% 95%  
320 1.1% 95%  
321 1.1% 94%  
322 1.0% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 3% 90%  
325 2% 87%  
326 3% 85% Last Result
327 2% 82%  
328 3% 80%  
329 3% 77%  
330 4% 73%  
331 5% 69%  
332 3% 64%  
333 4% 61%  
334 4% 57%  
335 6% 53% Median
336 4% 47%  
337 5% 43%  
338 4% 38%  
339 4% 34%  
340 5% 30%  
341 3% 25%  
342 3% 22%  
343 2% 19%  
344 3% 16%  
345 2% 13%  
346 2% 11%  
347 2% 9%  
348 1.4% 7%  
349 1.1% 6%  
350 0.9% 4%  
351 0.9% 4%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.5% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.4% 1.1% Majority
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.2% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.2% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.5%  
285 0.3% 99.3%  
286 0.4% 99.0%  
287 0.4% 98.6%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 1.0% 98% Last Result
290 0.6% 97%  
291 2% 96%  
292 1.1% 94%  
293 2% 93%  
294 2% 91%  
295 2% 90%  
296 2% 87%  
297 4% 85%  
298 2% 82%  
299 5% 79%  
300 3% 74%  
301 4% 71%  
302 5% 67%  
303 4% 62%  
304 4% 58%  
305 5% 53% Median
306 3% 48%  
307 4% 45%  
308 5% 41%  
309 3% 36%  
310 5% 32%  
311 3% 27%  
312 4% 24%  
313 2% 20%  
314 3% 18%  
315 2% 15%  
316 2% 13%  
317 1.2% 10%  
318 2% 9%  
319 1.0% 7%  
320 1.2% 6%  
321 0.7% 5%  
322 1.0% 4%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.5% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.3% 2%  
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.4%  
329 0.3% 1.1%  
330 0.1% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.5%  
254 0.2% 99.5%  
255 0% 99.3%  
256 0.2% 99.3%  
257 0.1% 99.0%  
258 0.2% 98.9%  
259 0.1% 98.7%  
260 0.2% 98.6%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.2% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0.2% 98%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 0.2% 97%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.5% 96%  
273 0.5% 96%  
274 0.6% 95%  
275 1.1% 95%  
276 0.8% 94%  
277 2% 93%  
278 2% 91%  
279 2% 89%  
280 2% 88%  
281 3% 86%  
282 2% 82%  
283 3% 80%  
284 3% 77%  
285 5% 74%  
286 3% 69%  
287 4% 65%  
288 5% 61%  
289 5% 56%  
290 6% 51% Median
291 3% 45%  
292 3% 42%  
293 6% 39%  
294 4% 32%  
295 4% 29%  
296 3% 24%  
297 4% 21%  
298 3% 17%  
299 3% 15%  
300 2% 12% Last Result
301 1.5% 9%  
302 2% 8%  
303 2% 6%  
304 0.8% 5%  
305 1.0% 4%  
306 0.8% 3%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.2%  
310 0.3% 0.9%  
311 0.2% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.5%  
225 0.4% 99.3%  
226 0.4% 98.9%  
227 0.3% 98.5%  
228 0.8% 98%  
229 1.3% 97%  
230 0.7% 96%  
231 1.1% 95%  
232 2% 94%  
233 2% 92%  
234 2% 90%  
235 3% 89%  
236 4% 86%  
237 3% 82%  
238 4% 79%  
239 4% 75%  
240 5% 71%  
241 4% 67%  
242 4% 63%  
243 7% 58%  
244 4% 52% Median
245 3% 47%  
246 6% 44%  
247 5% 38%  
248 3% 33%  
249 3% 30%  
250 6% 27%  
251 2% 21%  
252 2% 19%  
253 3% 17%  
254 3% 13%  
255 0.9% 10%  
256 2% 9%  
257 2% 7%  
258 0.9% 6%  
259 0.9% 5%  
260 1.1% 4%  
261 0.5% 3%  
262 0.3% 2%  
263 0.5% 2%  
264 0.3% 1.4%  
265 0.3% 1.1%  
266 0.2% 0.8%  
267 0.2% 0.7%  
268 0.1% 0.5%  
269 0.1% 0.4%  
270 0% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.3% 99.5%  
151 0.4% 99.3%  
152 0.5% 98.8%  
153 1.0% 98%  
154 0.9% 97%  
155 0.9% 96%  
156 2% 96%  
157 2% 94%  
158 2% 92%  
159 2% 90%  
160 2% 88%  
161 4% 85%  
162 3% 82%  
163 4% 78%  
164 5% 75%  
165 4% 70%  
166 4% 66%  
167 5% 61%  
168 6% 56% Median
169 5% 51%  
170 7% 46%  
171 5% 39%  
172 5% 34%  
173 5% 29%  
174 4% 24%  
175 3% 20%  
176 3% 17%  
177 3% 14%  
178 2% 11%  
179 2% 9%  
180 1.2% 7%  
181 1.4% 5%  
182 1.2% 4%  
183 0.6% 3%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.2%  
187 0.3% 0.9%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.1% 99.6%  
108 0.1% 99.5%  
109 0.1% 99.4%  
110 0.1% 99.3%  
111 0.2% 99.2%  
112 0.2% 99.0%  
113 0.1% 98.8%  
114 0.3% 98.7%  
115 0.1% 98%  
116 0.1% 98%  
117 0.2% 98%  
118 0.2% 98%  
119 0.1% 98%  
120 0.1% 98%  
121 0.1% 98%  
122 0.1% 97%  
123 0% 97%  
124 0.1% 97%  
125 0% 97%  
126 0% 97%  
127 0% 97%  
128 0% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0% 97%  
131 0% 97%  
132 0% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0.2% 97%  
137 0.3% 97%  
138 0.3% 96%  
139 0.6% 96%  
140 0.8% 95%  
141 1.4% 95%  
142 1.3% 93%  
143 2% 92%  
144 2% 90%  
145 3% 87%  
146 3% 85%  
147 5% 82%  
148 4% 77%  
149 5% 73%  
150 4% 69%  
151 7% 64%  
152 4% 57%  
153 6% 53% Median
154 6% 47%  
155 6% 41%  
156 5% 35%  
157 5% 30%  
158 4% 25%  
159 4% 21%  
160 4% 17%  
161 3% 13%  
162 1.4% 10%  
163 2% 9%  
164 2% 7%  
165 1.1% 5%  
166 1.2% 4%  
167 0.6% 2%  
168 0.6% 2%  
169 0.3% 1.2%  
170 0.3% 0.8%  
171 0.2% 0.6%  
172 0.1% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations