Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 24–27 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.9–30.2% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 216 206–227 204–229 201–231 196–235
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 121 113–128 112–131 108–133 106–137
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 106–122 105–125 103–126 98–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–90 75–93 73–94 70–98
Die Linke 69 59 57–67 53–69 52–69 49–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 55–67 54–69 53–70 50–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 54 48–59 46–61 45–62 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0.1% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.2% 99.7%  
197 0.3% 99.5%  
198 0.4% 99.2%  
199 0.6% 98.8%  
200 0.2% 98% Last Result
201 0.7% 98%  
202 0.3% 97%  
203 2% 97%  
204 2% 95%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 92%  
207 0.8% 90%  
208 5% 89%  
209 2% 84%  
210 5% 82%  
211 5% 78%  
212 3% 73%  
213 5% 70%  
214 2% 65%  
215 5% 63%  
216 11% 58% Median
217 5% 47%  
218 9% 42%  
219 2% 33%  
220 3% 31%  
221 4% 28%  
222 4% 24%  
223 4% 20%  
224 2% 16%  
225 3% 14%  
226 0.4% 11%  
227 3% 11%  
228 2% 8%  
229 2% 6%  
230 1.5% 4%  
231 0.4% 3%  
232 0.8% 2%  
233 0.2% 1.3%  
234 0.1% 1.2%  
235 0.7% 1.0%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0.1% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.6%  
107 0.9% 99.5%  
108 1.2% 98.6%  
109 1.0% 97%  
110 0.6% 97%  
111 0.5% 96%  
112 5% 95%  
113 2% 91%  
114 5% 88%  
115 0.7% 83%  
116 5% 83%  
117 3% 78%  
118 8% 74%  
119 13% 66%  
120 0.6% 53%  
121 6% 52% Median
122 10% 47%  
123 7% 36%  
124 4% 29%  
125 1.1% 25%  
126 5% 24%  
127 7% 19%  
128 3% 12%  
129 0.5% 9%  
130 1.1% 8%  
131 3% 7%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.7% 3%  
134 0.1% 2%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.5% 1.2%  
137 0.3% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.3% 99.1%  
101 0.5% 98.8%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 1.3% 98%  
104 1.0% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 5% 93%  
107 3% 89%  
108 3% 85%  
109 3% 82%  
110 7% 79%  
111 4% 72%  
112 12% 69%  
113 7% 57% Median
114 4% 50%  
115 4% 45%  
116 6% 41%  
117 7% 36%  
118 7% 29%  
119 2% 22%  
120 5% 19%  
121 4% 14%  
122 2% 10%  
123 0.6% 8%  
124 3% 8%  
125 2% 5%  
126 2% 4%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.3%  
129 0.2% 0.9%  
130 0.3% 0.7%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.3% 99.3%  
72 0.6% 99.0%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 1.0% 97%  
75 2% 96%  
76 3% 94%  
77 6% 91%  
78 5% 85%  
79 4% 80%  
80 6% 76%  
81 7% 70%  
82 5% 62%  
83 5% 57%  
84 10% 52% Median
85 5% 43%  
86 5% 37%  
87 2% 32%  
88 7% 30%  
89 3% 23%  
90 10% 20%  
91 2% 10%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.1% 5%  
94 2% 4% Last Result
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.3%  
97 0.2% 0.9%  
98 0.2% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.7% 99.3%  
51 0.8% 98.6%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 0.9% 94%  
55 1.0% 93%  
56 1.4% 92%  
57 4% 91%  
58 22% 87%  
59 17% 65% Median
60 9% 47%  
61 2% 38%  
62 5% 36%  
63 2% 30%  
64 3% 28%  
65 7% 25%  
66 5% 18%  
67 3% 13%  
68 3% 10%  
69 5% 7% Last Result
70 0.4% 1.3%  
71 0.1% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.7%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 0.4% 99.4%  
52 0.7% 99.0%  
53 3% 98%  
54 4% 96%  
55 4% 92%  
56 11% 88%  
57 7% 77%  
58 13% 70%  
59 7% 57%  
60 15% 50% Median
61 4% 36%  
62 4% 31%  
63 3% 27%  
64 4% 23%  
65 4% 19%  
66 3% 15%  
67 4% 12%  
68 1.4% 8%  
69 3% 7%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.5%  
45 1.4% 98.6%  
46 5% 97%  
47 2% 93%  
48 7% 90%  
49 6% 84%  
50 10% 78%  
51 6% 68%  
52 8% 62%  
53 3% 54%  
54 13% 51% Median
55 4% 37%  
56 6% 33%  
57 4% 27%  
58 11% 23%  
59 3% 12%  
60 3% 10%  
61 2% 6%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 510 100% 501–521 498–524 497–526 493–529
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 449 100% 441–460 438–463 436–467 431–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 443 100% 433–453 431–457 428–459 423–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 413 100% 402–423 400–425 399–429 393–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 396 100% 387–408 383–411 382–413 377–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 389 100% 380–402 377–405 373–406 370–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 361 77% 350–370 346–373 344–375 339–380
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 330 0.2% 319–340 317–342 314–346 309–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 296 0% 286–307 284–309 280–310 275–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 288 0% 278–299 275–302 274–304 268–308
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 234 0% 225–245 222–248 220–251 215–255
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 167–184 164–186 161–189 156–193
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 167 0% 158–178 156–179 154–180 151–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0.1% 99.9%  
489 0% 99.9%  
490 0.1% 99.9%  
491 0.1% 99.8%  
492 0.1% 99.7%  
493 0.2% 99.7%  
494 0.7% 99.5%  
495 0.4% 98.8%  
496 0.3% 98%  
497 2% 98%  
498 2% 96%  
499 3% 94%  
500 1.0% 91%  
501 2% 90%  
502 3% 88%  
503 2% 85%  
504 4% 84%  
505 3% 80%  
506 1.3% 77%  
507 15% 76%  
508 1.0% 61%  
509 7% 60%  
510 7% 54% Median
511 1.0% 47%  
512 4% 46%  
513 2% 42%  
514 1.2% 40%  
515 4% 38%  
516 3% 34%  
517 4% 31%  
518 2% 27%  
519 7% 25%  
520 6% 18%  
521 3% 12%  
522 2% 9%  
523 2% 7%  
524 2% 5%  
525 0.4% 4%  
526 1.5% 3%  
527 0.3% 2%  
528 0.3% 1.3%  
529 0.8% 1.0%  
530 0.1% 0.3%  
531 0.1% 0.2%  
532 0.1% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.9%  
428 0% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.2% 99.6%  
432 0.2% 99.3%  
433 0.2% 99.2%  
434 0.7% 98.9%  
435 0.4% 98%  
436 0.8% 98%  
437 0.8% 97%  
438 2% 96%  
439 0.8% 95%  
440 3% 94%  
441 2% 91%  
442 1.5% 89%  
443 5% 87%  
444 4% 82%  
445 7% 79%  
446 1.1% 72%  
447 5% 71%  
448 1.2% 66%  
449 15% 65%  
450 5% 50%  
451 2% 45% Median
452 6% 43%  
453 2% 37%  
454 5% 35%  
455 3% 30%  
456 4% 26%  
457 5% 22%  
458 3% 17%  
459 3% 14%  
460 2% 11%  
461 0.9% 9%  
462 2% 8%  
463 0.7% 6%  
464 1.3% 5%  
465 0.8% 4%  
466 0.2% 3%  
467 1.0% 3%  
468 0.1% 2%  
469 0.8% 1.5%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.2% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
418 0.1% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.1% 99.6%  
424 0.2% 99.5%  
425 0.4% 99.3%  
426 0.5% 98.9%  
427 0.4% 98%  
428 0.8% 98%  
429 1.4% 97%  
430 0.4% 96%  
431 1.5% 96%  
432 2% 94%  
433 2% 92%  
434 2% 90%  
435 3% 88%  
436 1.4% 85%  
437 4% 84%  
438 4% 80%  
439 3% 76%  
440 4% 73%  
441 4% 69%  
442 10% 65%  
443 6% 55% Median
444 7% 49%  
445 2% 43%  
446 2% 40%  
447 8% 38%  
448 4% 30%  
449 4% 26%  
450 4% 23%  
451 2% 19%  
452 3% 17%  
453 4% 14%  
454 1.3% 9%  
455 0.6% 8%  
456 2% 8%  
457 1.2% 5%  
458 1.2% 4%  
459 0.6% 3%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.1% 2%  
462 0.9% 2%  
463 0.1% 0.7%  
464 0.1% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.5%  
466 0.2% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
387 0.1% 100%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.7%  
392 0.1% 99.6%  
393 0.6% 99.6%  
394 0.6% 99.0%  
395 0.1% 98%  
396 0.2% 98%  
397 0.4% 98%  
398 0.1% 98%  
399 2% 98%  
400 3% 95%  
401 1.0% 93%  
402 2% 92%  
403 2% 90%  
404 0.7% 88%  
405 4% 87%  
406 4% 83%  
407 4% 79%  
408 2% 75%  
409 3% 73%  
410 1.5% 70%  
411 5% 68%  
412 6% 63%  
413 9% 57%  
414 1.5% 48% Median
415 5% 47%  
416 3% 42%  
417 1.3% 39%  
418 8% 38%  
419 6% 30%  
420 10% 24% Last Result
421 0.9% 14%  
422 3% 13%  
423 2% 10%  
424 0.5% 8%  
425 3% 7%  
426 0.5% 4%  
427 1.0% 4%  
428 0.4% 3%  
429 0.5% 3%  
430 0.1% 2%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.8% 2%  
433 0.2% 0.8%  
434 0.2% 0.6%  
435 0.1% 0.4%  
436 0% 0.3%  
437 0% 0.3%  
438 0.2% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.8%  
375 0.2% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.6%  
377 0.3% 99.6%  
378 0.7% 99.3%  
379 0.1% 98.6%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 0.1% 98%  
382 2% 98%  
383 1.2% 96%  
384 1.1% 95%  
385 2% 94%  
386 0.9% 92%  
387 4% 91%  
388 1.4% 87%  
389 2% 86%  
390 3% 84%  
391 4% 81%  
392 3% 77%  
393 3% 74%  
394 3% 70%  
395 12% 67%  
396 6% 55%  
397 4% 49% Median
398 4% 46%  
399 9% 42%  
400 0.9% 33%  
401 2% 32%  
402 5% 30%  
403 5% 25%  
404 2% 20%  
405 2% 18%  
406 3% 16%  
407 2% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 2% 9%  
410 0.9% 7%  
411 1.3% 6%  
412 0.6% 4%  
413 1.5% 4%  
414 0.4% 2%  
415 0.1% 2%  
416 0.9% 2%  
417 0.1% 1.1%  
418 0.6% 1.0%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.2% 99.7%  
370 0.4% 99.5%  
371 0.2% 99.2%  
372 0.5% 98.9%  
373 1.2% 98%  
374 0.4% 97%  
375 0.8% 97%  
376 0.7% 96%  
377 2% 95%  
378 1.2% 94%  
379 2% 92%  
380 6% 90%  
381 1.3% 84%  
382 1.4% 83%  
383 2% 82%  
384 2% 79%  
385 4% 78%  
386 5% 74%  
387 2% 69%  
388 13% 67%  
389 5% 54% Median
390 2% 49%  
391 5% 46%  
392 1.1% 42%  
393 3% 41%  
394 4% 38%  
395 3% 34%  
396 2% 31%  
397 8% 30%  
398 4% 21%  
399 3% 17% Last Result
400 2% 15%  
401 1.2% 12%  
402 2% 11%  
403 2% 10%  
404 3% 8%  
405 2% 5%  
406 1.3% 3%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.2% 1.3%  
409 0.2% 1.1%  
410 0.1% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.8%  
412 0.4% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.2% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
341 0.2% 98.9%  
342 0.2% 98.7%  
343 0.4% 98.5%  
344 0.9% 98%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 2% 96%  
347 2% 95%  
348 0.3% 93%  
349 1.1% 93%  
350 4% 92%  
351 4% 88%  
352 4% 84%  
353 2% 80%  
354 1.2% 78%  
355 5% 77% Majority
356 6% 72%  
357 5% 67%  
358 2% 62%  
359 1.3% 60%  
360 8% 59% Median
361 8% 51%  
362 6% 43%  
363 4% 38%  
364 2% 34%  
365 0.6% 31%  
366 13% 31%  
367 3% 18%  
368 2% 14%  
369 2% 12%  
370 0.6% 10%  
371 3% 10%  
372 1.5% 7%  
373 1.0% 6%  
374 1.3% 5%  
375 1.2% 3%  
376 0.7% 2%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.3% 1.3%  
379 0.5% 1.0%  
380 0.1% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0.1% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0.1% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0.3% 99.3%  
312 0.3% 99.0%  
313 0.3% 98.8%  
314 1.2% 98%  
315 1.5% 97%  
316 0.7% 96%  
317 2% 95%  
318 2% 94%  
319 2% 92%  
320 2% 89%  
321 2% 87%  
322 3% 85%  
323 4% 82%  
324 3% 79%  
325 3% 76%  
326 5% 73% Last Result
327 6% 68%  
328 3% 62%  
329 3% 59%  
330 14% 56% Median
331 4% 42%  
332 4% 38%  
333 3% 34%  
334 6% 31%  
335 6% 26%  
336 3% 20%  
337 3% 18%  
338 2% 14%  
339 0.9% 12%  
340 3% 11%  
341 2% 8%  
342 2% 6%  
343 0.6% 5%  
344 0.4% 4%  
345 0.7% 4%  
346 1.1% 3%  
347 0.6% 2%  
348 0.3% 1.2%  
349 0.2% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0.3% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0.1% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0.2% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.2% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.4%  
277 0.8% 99.2%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.5% 98%  
281 0.4% 97%  
282 1.0% 97%  
283 0.5% 96%  
284 3% 96%  
285 0.5% 93%  
286 2% 92%  
287 3% 90%  
288 0.9% 87%  
289 10% 86% Last Result
290 6% 76%  
291 8% 70%  
292 1.3% 62%  
293 3% 61% Median
294 5% 58%  
295 1.5% 53%  
296 9% 52%  
297 6% 43%  
298 5% 37%  
299 1.5% 32%  
300 3% 30%  
301 2% 27%  
302 4% 25%  
303 4% 21%  
304 4% 17%  
305 0.7% 13%  
306 2% 12%  
307 2% 10%  
308 1.0% 8%  
309 3% 7%  
310 2% 5%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.4% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.6% 2%  
316 0.6% 1.0%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0.1% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.2% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.5%  
269 0.2% 99.4%  
270 0.3% 99.1%  
271 0.3% 98.8%  
272 0.5% 98.5%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 1.1% 98%  
275 3% 97%  
276 1.1% 94%  
277 0.8% 93%  
278 3% 92%  
279 3% 89%  
280 3% 86%  
281 3% 84%  
282 6% 81%  
283 3% 75%  
284 5% 72%  
285 9% 67%  
286 4% 58%  
287 3% 54%  
288 4% 51% Median
289 6% 47%  
290 2% 41%  
291 7% 38%  
292 3% 31%  
293 3% 29%  
294 3% 26%  
295 2% 23%  
296 4% 21%  
297 3% 18%  
298 2% 15%  
299 3% 12%  
300 2% 9% Last Result
301 0.8% 7%  
302 2% 6%  
303 2% 5%  
304 0.7% 3%  
305 1.1% 2%  
306 0.2% 1.2%  
307 0.4% 1.0%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.2% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0.3% 99.5%  
217 0.1% 99.2%  
218 0.4% 99.0%  
219 0.4% 98.6%  
220 2% 98% Last Result
221 0.6% 97%  
222 2% 96%  
223 0.8% 94%  
224 2% 94%  
225 3% 92%  
226 2% 88%  
227 3% 86%  
228 2% 83%  
229 3% 81%  
230 3% 77%  
231 11% 74%  
232 4% 63%  
233 6% 59%  
234 3% 53% Median
235 5% 50%  
236 4% 45%  
237 3% 41%  
238 5% 38%  
239 6% 33%  
240 4% 27%  
241 4% 23%  
242 2% 19%  
243 2% 17%  
244 3% 15%  
245 3% 12%  
246 0.7% 9%  
247 3% 8%  
248 0.7% 5%  
249 1.1% 5%  
250 0.3% 4%  
251 1.3% 3%  
252 0.6% 2%  
253 0.4% 1.3%  
254 0.3% 0.9%  
255 0.2% 0.6%  
256 0.2% 0.5%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.2%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.2% 99.7%  
157 0.3% 99.5%  
158 0.5% 99.1%  
159 0.2% 98.6%  
160 0.6% 98%  
161 0.3% 98%  
162 1.0% 97%  
163 0.9% 97%  
164 1.5% 96%  
165 2% 94%  
166 2% 92%  
167 3% 91%  
168 6% 88%  
169 3% 82%  
170 11% 79%  
171 4% 68%  
172 3% 64% Median
173 3% 61%  
174 4% 58%  
175 8% 54%  
176 7% 46%  
177 3% 39%  
178 10% 36%  
179 4% 26%  
180 3% 22%  
181 2% 19%  
182 1.4% 17%  
183 4% 16%  
184 3% 12%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 7%  
187 1.1% 5%  
188 1.1% 4%  
189 0.9% 3%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.1%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.5%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0.1% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.5% 99.5%  
152 0.7% 99.0%  
153 0.3% 98%  
154 1.2% 98%  
155 1.1% 97%  
156 2% 96%  
157 2% 94%  
158 2% 92%  
159 2% 90%  
160 1.0% 87%  
161 3% 86%  
162 5% 83%  
163 5% 79%  
164 4% 74%  
165 6% 70%  
166 13% 64%  
167 7% 51% Median
168 9% 44%  
169 3% 34%  
170 3% 32%  
171 3% 29%  
172 3% 26%  
173 3% 23%  
174 2% 20%  
175 0.9% 18%  
176 4% 17%  
177 3% 14%  
178 5% 11%  
179 1.0% 6%  
180 2% 4%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.2%  
184 0.2% 0.9%  
185 0.1% 0.6%  
186 0.1% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations