Opinion Poll by Kantar, 23–29 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.6–31.7% 28.2–32.1% 27.8–32.5% 27.1–33.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.3% 5.3–8.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 226 215–239 212–243 209–246 204–254
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 129 119–138 116–141 114–144 110–149
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 111–131 109–133 107–136 103–141
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 68–84 66–86 64–88 61–92
Die Linke 69 61 54–68 52–70 51–72 48–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 46–59 44–61 43–63 40–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–52 38–54 0–55 0–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.2% 99.7%  
204 0.2% 99.5%  
205 0.3% 99.3%  
206 0.2% 99.0%  
207 0.4% 98.8%  
208 0.5% 98%  
209 0.6% 98%  
210 0.7% 97%  
211 0.7% 97%  
212 2% 96%  
213 2% 94%  
214 1.2% 92%  
215 2% 91%  
216 3% 89%  
217 2% 86%  
218 3% 84%  
219 3% 81%  
220 3% 78%  
221 4% 75%  
222 4% 71%  
223 5% 67%  
224 4% 63%  
225 4% 58%  
226 6% 55% Median
227 5% 49%  
228 4% 44%  
229 3% 40%  
230 3% 37%  
231 3% 34%  
232 4% 31%  
233 3% 27%  
234 3% 24%  
235 4% 21%  
236 2% 17%  
237 2% 15%  
238 2% 13%  
239 1.3% 10%  
240 2% 9%  
241 1.1% 8%  
242 0.9% 6%  
243 1.1% 6%  
244 0.7% 5%  
245 0.7% 4%  
246 0.7% 3%  
247 0.4% 2%  
248 0.5% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0.2% 1.3%  
251 0.2% 1.1%  
252 0.2% 1.0%  
253 0.2% 0.8%  
254 0.1% 0.6%  
255 0.1% 0.5%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.4% 99.6%  
111 0.4% 99.2%  
112 0.7% 98.8%  
113 0.6% 98%  
114 1.0% 98%  
115 0.8% 97%  
116 1.0% 96%  
117 1.5% 95%  
118 2% 93%  
119 3% 92%  
120 3% 89%  
121 6% 85%  
122 4% 80%  
123 5% 76%  
124 5% 71%  
125 4% 66%  
126 4% 62%  
127 4% 59%  
128 5% 55%  
129 4% 50% Median
130 7% 46%  
131 7% 39%  
132 4% 32%  
133 5% 27%  
134 3% 22%  
135 3% 19%  
136 3% 15%  
137 1.5% 13%  
138 2% 11%  
139 2% 10%  
140 2% 8%  
141 1.3% 6%  
142 1.1% 5%  
143 0.8% 3%  
144 0.8% 3%  
145 0.6% 2%  
146 0.3% 1.3%  
147 0.2% 1.0%  
148 0.2% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.6%  
150 0.2% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.3% 99.3%  
105 0.5% 99.0%  
106 0.7% 98%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 1.2% 97%  
109 1.3% 96%  
110 2% 94%  
111 3% 93%  
112 3% 90%  
113 3% 87%  
114 4% 85%  
115 3% 80%  
116 4% 77%  
117 5% 74%  
118 5% 69%  
119 7% 64%  
120 4% 56%  
121 7% 52% Median
122 5% 45%  
123 5% 41%  
124 5% 36%  
125 4% 31%  
126 5% 27%  
127 4% 22%  
128 3% 18%  
129 3% 15%  
130 2% 12%  
131 2% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 1.4% 6%  
134 1.3% 5%  
135 0.9% 4%  
136 0.8% 3%  
137 0.5% 2%  
138 0.3% 1.4%  
139 0.3% 1.1%  
140 0.2% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.5%  
63 0.5% 99.0%  
64 1.2% 98%  
65 1.2% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 2% 94%  
68 4% 92%  
69 3% 89%  
70 4% 85%  
71 5% 81%  
72 7% 76%  
73 6% 70%  
74 6% 64%  
75 6% 58%  
76 6% 52% Median
77 7% 46%  
78 8% 38%  
79 5% 31%  
80 4% 25%  
81 4% 21%  
82 3% 17%  
83 3% 13%  
84 2% 10%  
85 2% 8%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 0.8% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.4% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.1%  
92 0.2% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.6% 99.1%  
50 0.9% 98.5%  
51 1.4% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 3% 94%  
54 3% 91%  
55 4% 88%  
56 6% 84%  
57 7% 78%  
58 7% 71%  
59 7% 64%  
60 6% 57%  
61 8% 51% Median
62 7% 43%  
63 7% 37%  
64 6% 30%  
65 5% 23%  
66 3% 18%  
67 3% 14%  
68 3% 11%  
69 2% 8% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 1.1% 3%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 99.4%  
42 0.9% 98.9%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 3% 95%  
46 3% 92% Last Result
47 5% 88%  
48 6% 84%  
49 7% 78%  
50 6% 71%  
51 9% 65%  
52 8% 55% Median
53 8% 48%  
54 7% 40%  
55 7% 33%  
56 6% 26%  
57 5% 20%  
58 4% 16%  
59 3% 12%  
60 2% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.4% 4%  
63 0.9% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0% 96%  
38 2% 96%  
39 3% 94%  
40 5% 91%  
41 6% 86%  
42 6% 80%  
43 9% 74%  
44 8% 66%  
45 9% 58% Median
46 8% 49%  
47 7% 41%  
48 7% 34%  
49 7% 26%  
50 5% 20%  
51 4% 15%  
52 4% 11%  
53 2% 7%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.3% 3%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.6% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 528 100% 516–540 514–545 511–561 505–572
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 451 100% 439–464 435–467 431–470 422–475
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 444 100% 432–457 427–460 423–463 414–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 394–421 391–426 388–433 382–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 399 100% 386–414 384–419 380–425 374–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 399 100% 386–412 382–415 377–419 367–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 355 50% 342–368 338–373 336–379 330–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 324 0.1% 310–337 305–340 298–343 286–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 310 0% 297–323 294–327 290–332 285–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 294 0% 280–306 275–309 266–313 253–319
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 237–261 234–265 231–269 225–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 182 0% 171–193 167–196 165–199 160–206
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 154–177 148–180 129–182 120–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.8%  
504 0.1% 99.7%  
505 0.2% 99.5%  
506 0.2% 99.4%  
507 0.2% 99.1%  
508 0.2% 98.9%  
509 0.3% 98.7%  
510 0.4% 98%  
511 0.6% 98%  
512 1.0% 97%  
513 1.2% 96%  
514 2% 95%  
515 3% 93%  
516 2% 91%  
517 3% 89%  
518 3% 86%  
519 2% 83%  
520 3% 81%  
521 2% 79%  
522 3% 77%  
523 3% 74%  
524 4% 71%  
525 4% 66%  
526 7% 63%  
527 6% 56%  
528 7% 50% Median
529 4% 43%  
530 6% 39%  
531 3% 33%  
532 4% 30%  
533 2% 26%  
534 2% 24%  
535 2% 22%  
536 2% 19%  
537 2% 17%  
538 3% 15%  
539 2% 13%  
540 2% 11%  
541 1.3% 9%  
542 1.0% 8%  
543 0.8% 7%  
544 0.4% 6%  
545 0.3% 5%  
546 0.2% 5%  
547 0.2% 5%  
548 0.1% 5%  
549 0.1% 4%  
550 0.1% 4%  
551 0.1% 4%  
552 0.1% 4%  
553 0.1% 4%  
554 0.1% 4%  
555 0.1% 4%  
556 0.3% 4%  
557 0.1% 3%  
558 0.3% 3%  
559 0.2% 3%  
560 0.1% 3%  
561 0.4% 3%  
562 0.2% 2%  
563 0.2% 2%  
564 0.3% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 0.2% 2%  
567 0.2% 1.4%  
568 0.1% 1.2%  
569 0.2% 1.1%  
570 0.2% 0.9%  
571 0.1% 0.7%  
572 0.2% 0.6%  
573 0.1% 0.4%  
574 0% 0.3%  
575 0% 0.3%  
576 0.1% 0.2%  
577 0% 0.2%  
578 0% 0.2%  
579 0% 0.1%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.7%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.1% 99.5%  
423 0.1% 99.4%  
424 0.1% 99.4%  
425 0.2% 99.3%  
426 0.2% 99.1%  
427 0.2% 98.9%  
428 0.3% 98.7%  
429 0.3% 98%  
430 0.4% 98%  
431 0.5% 98%  
432 0.5% 97%  
433 0.8% 97%  
434 0.6% 96%  
435 1.1% 95%  
436 0.7% 94%  
437 1.4% 93%  
438 1.4% 92%  
439 1.4% 91%  
440 2% 89%  
441 2% 88%  
442 3% 86%  
443 2% 83%  
444 3% 81%  
445 4% 78%  
446 3% 74%  
447 3% 71%  
448 4% 67%  
449 4% 63%  
450 4% 58%  
451 5% 55%  
452 3% 50% Median
453 5% 47%  
454 3% 42%  
455 5% 39%  
456 3% 33%  
457 3% 31%  
458 2% 27%  
459 3% 25%  
460 3% 22%  
461 2% 18%  
462 2% 16%  
463 3% 14%  
464 2% 11%  
465 2% 9%  
466 2% 7%  
467 1.0% 6%  
468 1.3% 5%  
469 0.9% 3%  
470 0.7% 3%  
471 0.4% 2%  
472 0.3% 2%  
473 0.3% 1.2%  
474 0.2% 0.9%  
475 0.2% 0.6%  
476 0.1% 0.5%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.6%  
414 0.1% 99.5%  
415 0.1% 99.4%  
416 0.1% 99.3%  
417 0.1% 99.2%  
418 0.2% 99.1%  
419 0.2% 98.9%  
420 0.3% 98.7%  
421 0.3% 98%  
422 0.4% 98%  
423 0.4% 98%  
424 0.5% 97%  
425 0.7% 97%  
426 0.6% 96%  
427 0.7% 96%  
428 0.8% 95%  
429 0.8% 94%  
430 1.3% 93%  
431 2% 92%  
432 2% 90%  
433 2% 88%  
434 3% 87%  
435 2% 84%  
436 2% 82%  
437 2% 80%  
438 3% 77%  
439 3% 74%  
440 4% 71%  
441 6% 68%  
442 4% 62%  
443 4% 58%  
444 5% 54% Median
445 3% 49%  
446 4% 45%  
447 3% 41%  
448 4% 38%  
449 4% 35%  
450 4% 31%  
451 2% 27%  
452 4% 24%  
453 3% 20%  
454 3% 18%  
455 3% 15%  
456 2% 12%  
457 2% 10%  
458 2% 9%  
459 1.2% 7%  
460 2% 6%  
461 0.9% 4%  
462 0.8% 4%  
463 0.7% 3%  
464 0.4% 2%  
465 0.3% 2%  
466 0.3% 1.3%  
467 0.2% 0.9%  
468 0.2% 0.7%  
469 0.2% 0.5%  
470 0.1% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0.1% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.4%  
384 0.3% 99.2%  
385 0.4% 99.0%  
386 0.4% 98.6%  
387 0.5% 98%  
388 0.6% 98%  
389 0.9% 97%  
390 0.7% 96%  
391 1.2% 95%  
392 1.0% 94%  
393 2% 93%  
394 2% 92%  
395 2% 90%  
396 1.3% 87%  
397 3% 86%  
398 3% 83%  
399 2% 80%  
400 3% 78%  
401 4% 75%  
402 3% 71%  
403 3% 68%  
404 5% 64%  
405 5% 59%  
406 2% 54%  
407 6% 52% Median
408 5% 46%  
409 2% 42%  
410 4% 39%  
411 4% 35%  
412 3% 31%  
413 4% 29%  
414 3% 25%  
415 2% 22%  
416 3% 21%  
417 2% 18%  
418 2% 16%  
419 1.1% 13%  
420 2% 12%  
421 2% 10%  
422 0.9% 9%  
423 1.4% 8%  
424 0.5% 6%  
425 0.6% 6%  
426 0.5% 5%  
427 0.7% 5%  
428 0.3% 4%  
429 0.4% 4%  
430 0.2% 4%  
431 0.3% 3%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.3% 3%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0.4% 2%  
436 0.1% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.3% 2%  
439 0.1% 1.4%  
440 0.1% 1.2%  
441 0.2% 1.2%  
442 0.1% 1.0%  
443 0.1% 0.9%  
444 0.1% 0.8%  
445 0.2% 0.7%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0% 0.5%  
448 0.1% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0.2% 99.4%  
377 0.3% 99.2%  
378 0.4% 98.9%  
379 0.6% 98.5%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 0.6% 97%  
382 0.3% 97%  
383 0.8% 96%  
384 1.5% 96%  
385 1.2% 94%  
386 3% 93%  
387 1.4% 90%  
388 1.4% 88%  
389 2% 87%  
390 2% 85%  
391 4% 83%  
392 3% 80%  
393 3% 77%  
394 3% 73%  
395 2% 71%  
396 6% 69%  
397 4% 63%  
398 7% 59%  
399 5% 52% Last Result, Median
400 2% 47%  
401 2% 45%  
402 3% 43%  
403 4% 40%  
404 4% 36%  
405 5% 32%  
406 3% 27%  
407 2% 24%  
408 2% 22%  
409 2% 20%  
410 2% 17%  
411 2% 15%  
412 2% 13%  
413 0.9% 11%  
414 0.9% 10%  
415 0.9% 9%  
416 1.4% 8%  
417 1.2% 7%  
418 0.7% 6%  
419 0.5% 5%  
420 0.3% 5%  
421 0.3% 4%  
422 0.5% 4%  
423 0.4% 3%  
424 0.3% 3%  
425 0.4% 3%  
426 0.3% 2%  
427 0.2% 2%  
428 0.2% 2%  
429 0.1% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.2% 1.5%  
432 0.3% 1.3%  
433 0.2% 1.0%  
434 0.1% 0.8%  
435 0.1% 0.7%  
436 0.1% 0.7%  
437 0.1% 0.6%  
438 0.1% 0.5%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.3%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.1% 99.5%  
368 0.1% 99.5%  
369 0.1% 99.3%  
370 0.2% 99.2%  
371 0.2% 99.0%  
372 0.1% 98.8%  
373 0.3% 98.7%  
374 0.2% 98%  
375 0.4% 98%  
376 0.2% 98%  
377 0.3% 98%  
378 0.4% 97%  
379 0.6% 97%  
380 0.5% 96%  
381 0.8% 96%  
382 0.9% 95%  
383 0.7% 94%  
384 1.1% 93%  
385 2% 92%  
386 1.5% 91%  
387 1.4% 89%  
388 2% 88%  
389 2% 86%  
390 2% 84%  
391 4% 82%  
392 3% 78%  
393 2% 75%  
394 4% 72%  
395 4% 69%  
396 3% 65%  
397 5% 62%  
398 3% 57%  
399 4% 54% Median
400 4% 50%  
401 5% 46%  
402 4% 42%  
403 4% 38%  
404 4% 34%  
405 4% 30%  
406 3% 27%  
407 4% 24%  
408 3% 20%  
409 2% 17%  
410 3% 15%  
411 2% 12%  
412 1.0% 10%  
413 2% 9%  
414 1.4% 7%  
415 1.0% 6%  
416 1.2% 5%  
417 0.8% 4%  
418 0.3% 3%  
419 0.8% 3%  
420 0.3% 2% Last Result
421 0.3% 1.4%  
422 0.3% 1.1%  
423 0.1% 0.8%  
424 0.2% 0.6%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.2% 99.5%  
331 0.2% 99.3%  
332 0.3% 99.1%  
333 0.4% 98.8%  
334 0.3% 98%  
335 0.5% 98%  
336 0.9% 98%  
337 1.0% 97%  
338 0.7% 96%  
339 1.3% 95%  
340 1.4% 94% Last Result
341 1.4% 92%  
342 2% 91%  
343 2% 89%  
344 3% 87%  
345 3% 84%  
346 3% 82%  
347 2% 79%  
348 4% 77%  
349 4% 73%  
350 4% 70%  
351 3% 65%  
352 4% 63%  
353 3% 59%  
354 5% 55% Median
355 4% 50% Majority
356 5% 47%  
357 4% 42%  
358 4% 38%  
359 3% 33%  
360 3% 31%  
361 3% 27%  
362 3% 24%  
363 2% 21%  
364 2% 19%  
365 3% 17%  
366 1.3% 14%  
367 2% 13%  
368 1.3% 11%  
369 2% 10%  
370 1.2% 8%  
371 0.7% 7%  
372 0.6% 6%  
373 1.0% 6%  
374 0.5% 5%  
375 0.5% 4%  
376 0.4% 4%  
377 0.3% 3%  
378 0.4% 3%  
379 0.3% 3%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.1% 2%  
384 0.1% 2%  
385 0.2% 1.4%  
386 0.2% 1.3%  
387 0.1% 1.0%  
388 0.1% 0.9%  
389 0.1% 0.8%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.5%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.3%  
290 0.1% 99.2%  
291 0.3% 99.1%  
292 0.1% 98.9%  
293 0.4% 98.8%  
294 0.1% 98%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.3% 98%  
299 0.3% 97%  
300 0.4% 97%  
301 0.2% 97%  
302 0.5% 97%  
303 0.4% 96%  
304 0.6% 96%  
305 0.4% 95%  
306 0.7% 95%  
307 0.6% 94%  
308 1.4% 93%  
309 0.9% 92%  
310 2% 91%  
311 1.3% 89%  
312 2% 88%  
313 2% 86%  
314 3% 84%  
315 2% 82%  
316 3% 79%  
317 3% 76%  
318 3% 73%  
319 3% 70%  
320 5% 68%  
321 4% 63%  
322 5% 59%  
323 3% 54% Median
324 3% 51%  
325 5% 48%  
326 4% 43% Last Result
327 4% 39%  
328 3% 35%  
329 4% 32%  
330 2% 28%  
331 4% 26%  
332 2% 21%  
333 2% 19%  
334 3% 17%  
335 2% 14%  
336 2% 12%  
337 2% 10%  
338 1.1% 8%  
339 1.2% 7%  
340 1.1% 6%  
341 1.0% 5%  
342 0.9% 4%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.3%  
347 0.3% 1.0%  
348 0.2% 0.7%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.5%  
286 0.1% 99.4%  
287 0.3% 99.2%  
288 0.3% 98.9%  
289 0.3% 98.6% Last Result
290 0.8% 98%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 0.8% 97%  
293 1.2% 96%  
294 1.0% 95%  
295 1.4% 94%  
296 2% 93%  
297 1.0% 91%  
298 2% 90%  
299 3% 88%  
300 2% 85%  
301 3% 83%  
302 4% 80%  
303 3% 76%  
304 4% 73%  
305 4% 70%  
306 4% 66%  
307 4% 62%  
308 5% 58%  
309 4% 54%  
310 4% 50%  
311 3% 46% Median
312 5% 43%  
313 3% 38%  
314 4% 35%  
315 4% 31%  
316 2% 28%  
317 3% 25%  
318 4% 22%  
319 2% 18%  
320 2% 16%  
321 2% 14%  
322 1.4% 12%  
323 1.5% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.1% 8%  
326 0.7% 7%  
327 0.9% 6%  
328 0.8% 5%  
329 0.5% 4%  
330 0.6% 4%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.3%  
338 0.2% 1.2%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.1% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.5%  
254 0.1% 99.5%  
255 0.2% 99.4%  
256 0.1% 99.2%  
257 0.1% 99.1%  
258 0.1% 99.0%  
259 0.1% 99.0%  
260 0.1% 98.8%  
261 0.1% 98.7%  
262 0.3% 98.6%  
263 0.2% 98%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.2% 97%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 0.2% 97%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 0.2% 96%  
273 0.4% 96%  
274 0.2% 95%  
275 0.7% 95%  
276 0.9% 94%  
277 0.8% 94%  
278 1.2% 93%  
279 0.6% 92%  
280 2% 91%  
281 1.3% 89%  
282 2% 88%  
283 2% 86%  
284 2% 84%  
285 3% 82%  
286 2% 80%  
287 4% 78%  
288 2% 74%  
289 4% 72%  
290 4% 68%  
291 4% 64%  
292 5% 60%  
293 4% 55%  
294 3% 51%  
295 5% 48% Median
296 3% 43%  
297 5% 40%  
298 4% 35%  
299 2% 32%  
300 5% 29% Last Result
301 3% 25%  
302 4% 22%  
303 2% 18%  
304 3% 16%  
305 1.5% 14%  
306 2% 12%  
307 2% 10%  
308 1.5% 8%  
309 1.5% 6%  
310 0.6% 5%  
311 1.1% 4%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.4% 3%  
314 0.8% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.3% 1.2%  
317 0.2% 0.9%  
318 0.2% 0.7%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9% Last Result
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.7%  
225 0.2% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.4%  
227 0.2% 99.3%  
228 0.4% 99.1%  
229 0.4% 98.7%  
230 0.4% 98%  
231 0.6% 98%  
232 0.8% 97%  
233 1.2% 96%  
234 2% 95%  
235 2% 94%  
236 2% 92%  
237 2% 91%  
238 2% 89%  
239 2% 87%  
240 3% 85%  
241 3% 82%  
242 3% 79%  
243 5% 76%  
244 3% 72%  
245 4% 68%  
246 4% 64%  
247 4% 60%  
248 4% 56%  
249 6% 52%  
250 4% 46% Median
251 4% 42%  
252 3% 39%  
253 4% 35%  
254 2% 32%  
255 3% 29%  
256 4% 26%  
257 3% 22%  
258 3% 19%  
259 3% 16%  
260 2% 13%  
261 2% 12%  
262 1.4% 10%  
263 1.2% 8%  
264 1.5% 7%  
265 0.8% 6%  
266 0.8% 5%  
267 0.6% 4%  
268 0.5% 4%  
269 0.5% 3%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.5% 2%  
272 0.3% 2%  
273 0.2% 1.4%  
274 0.1% 1.1%  
275 0.2% 1.0%  
276 0.1% 0.8%  
277 0.2% 0.7%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.4%  
162 0.2% 99.2%  
163 0.5% 99.0%  
164 0.3% 98.5%  
165 1.1% 98%  
166 0.8% 97%  
167 1.4% 96%  
168 1.0% 95%  
169 2% 94%  
170 1.2% 92%  
171 2% 91%  
172 3% 89%  
173 1.5% 86%  
174 5% 84%  
175 2% 79%  
176 7% 78%  
177 3% 70%  
178 5% 67%  
179 3% 63%  
180 4% 60%  
181 5% 55%  
182 3% 50% Median
183 7% 47%  
184 4% 40%  
185 5% 36%  
186 2% 31%  
187 6% 29%  
188 3% 23%  
189 3% 21%  
190 2% 18%  
191 2% 16%  
192 3% 14%  
193 1.5% 11%  
194 2% 9%  
195 0.7% 7%  
196 2% 6%  
197 0.6% 4%  
198 0.8% 4%  
199 0.6% 3%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.3% 2%  
202 0.2% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.3%  
204 0.2% 1.0%  
205 0.2% 0.8%  
206 0.1% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0% 99.6%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0.2% 99.5%  
122 0.2% 99.2%  
123 0.2% 99.1%  
124 0.2% 98.9%  
125 0.2% 98.7%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 0.4% 98%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0.3% 98%  
130 0.2% 97%  
131 0.2% 97%  
132 0.2% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.1% 97%  
135 0.2% 97%  
136 0.2% 97%  
137 0.1% 96%  
138 0.1% 96%  
139 0.1% 96%  
140 0.1% 96%  
141 0.1% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 0.1% 96%  
144 0.1% 96%  
145 0.2% 96%  
146 0.2% 96%  
147 0.2% 95%  
148 0.2% 95%  
149 0.4% 95%  
150 0.7% 95%  
151 0.6% 94%  
152 1.0% 93%  
153 1.4% 92%  
154 1.5% 91%  
155 1.3% 89%  
156 3% 88%  
157 2% 85%  
158 2% 83%  
159 3% 81%  
160 3% 78%  
161 4% 75%  
162 4% 71%  
163 4% 68%  
164 6% 64%  
165 3% 57%  
166 6% 54% Median
167 6% 48%  
168 4% 42%  
169 5% 38%  
170 4% 33%  
171 4% 29%  
172 3% 25%  
173 3% 22%  
174 3% 19%  
175 2% 15%  
176 2% 13%  
177 2% 11%  
178 2% 9%  
179 2% 7%  
180 0.9% 5%  
181 1.3% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.6% 2%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 1.0%  
187 0.2% 0.7%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations