Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 31 July–3 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.3–29.8% 26.9–30.2% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 15.0–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 215 206–223 202–227 200–229 196–233
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 123 117–132 115–135 113–136 109–140
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 105–121 104–123 102–125 99–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 75–91 74–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 66 59–71 58–72 56–74 52–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 61 54–65 53–68 52–69 49–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 49 44–54 43–56 41–58 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.2% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.5%  
197 0.4% 99.4%  
198 0.3% 99.0%  
199 0.6% 98.7%  
200 1.0% 98% Last Result
201 0.4% 97%  
202 2% 97%  
203 0.5% 95%  
204 2% 94%  
205 2% 93%  
206 2% 91%  
207 5% 89%  
208 3% 85%  
209 5% 82%  
210 7% 77%  
211 3% 69%  
212 6% 67%  
213 6% 60%  
214 2% 54%  
215 3% 52% Median
216 5% 49%  
217 2% 44%  
218 10% 42%  
219 0.6% 32%  
220 12% 31%  
221 2% 20%  
222 7% 18%  
223 1.0% 11%  
224 2% 10%  
225 0.6% 8%  
226 1.0% 7%  
227 1.4% 6%  
228 1.2% 5%  
229 1.2% 4%  
230 0.9% 2%  
231 0.2% 1.4%  
232 0.5% 1.2%  
233 0.2% 0.6%  
234 0.1% 0.4%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0.1% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.6% 99.5%  
111 0.2% 98.9%  
112 1.2% 98.7%  
113 1.4% 98%  
114 0.9% 96%  
115 3% 95%  
116 1.2% 92%  
117 3% 91%  
118 6% 88%  
119 1.2% 82%  
120 7% 81%  
121 2% 74%  
122 13% 72%  
123 9% 59% Median
124 6% 50%  
125 6% 44%  
126 5% 38%  
127 6% 33%  
128 6% 28%  
129 2% 22%  
130 4% 20%  
131 4% 16%  
132 2% 11%  
133 1.2% 10%  
134 3% 8%  
135 2% 6%  
136 1.2% 3%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.3% 2%  
139 0.4% 2%  
140 0.6% 1.1%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.5%  
100 0.6% 99.3%  
101 0.6% 98.7%  
102 2% 98%  
103 0.7% 96%  
104 3% 96%  
105 3% 92%  
106 2% 89%  
107 3% 87%  
108 6% 84%  
109 4% 77%  
110 5% 74%  
111 12% 69%  
112 5% 57%  
113 10% 52% Median
114 5% 43%  
115 5% 38%  
116 5% 33%  
117 6% 28%  
118 8% 22%  
119 2% 14%  
120 2% 13%  
121 2% 10%  
122 1.5% 8%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 1.2% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.0%  
128 0.1% 0.7%  
129 0.3% 0.6%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.5%  
72 0.5% 98.8%  
73 0.8% 98%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 8% 93%  
77 2% 85%  
78 7% 84%  
79 14% 77%  
80 4% 63%  
81 4% 59%  
82 5% 54% Median
83 9% 50%  
84 6% 41%  
85 5% 35%  
86 6% 30%  
87 5% 24%  
88 7% 19%  
89 3% 12%  
90 2% 9%  
91 3% 8%  
92 0.9% 4%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.5% 2% Last Result
95 0.3% 1.4%  
96 0.4% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.4%  
54 0.3% 99.2%  
55 1.0% 98.9%  
56 1.0% 98%  
57 1.1% 97%  
58 2% 96%  
59 6% 94%  
60 10% 88%  
61 7% 78%  
62 8% 71%  
63 5% 63%  
64 4% 58%  
65 2% 54%  
66 6% 52% Median
67 21% 46%  
68 11% 25%  
69 2% 15% Last Result
70 2% 13%  
71 5% 11%  
72 2% 6%  
73 0.7% 4%  
74 0.6% 3%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.8% 1.2%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.4%  
51 0.6% 99.1%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 2% 89%  
56 6% 87%  
57 4% 80%  
58 5% 76%  
59 11% 72%  
60 6% 61%  
61 11% 55% Median
62 16% 44%  
63 8% 29%  
64 4% 20%  
65 6% 16%  
66 3% 10%  
67 1.2% 7%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.3%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 1.0% 97%  
43 4% 96%  
44 4% 93%  
45 5% 88%  
46 5% 84%  
47 8% 78%  
48 15% 70%  
49 11% 55% Median
50 4% 44%  
51 15% 41%  
52 2% 26%  
53 10% 24%  
54 5% 14%  
55 2% 9%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.8% 3%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 513 100% 503–521 500–524 498–527 494–531
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 450 100% 438–459 437–461 434–463 428–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 439 100% 426–447 424–448 421–452 418–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 406 100% 397–417 394–420 391–423 386–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 400 100% 390–410 387–413 384–415 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 390 100% 378–397 375–401 372–403 367–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 358 70% 347–367 345–371 342–374 338–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 326 0% 314–335 311–337 309–339 304–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 303 0% 292–312 289–315 286–318 282–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 286 0% 277–296 274–300 271–302 267–307
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 236 0% 228–247 224–251 223–252 218–257
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 178 0% 168–186 166–188 164–191 160–195
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 163 0% 154–171 151–173 149–174 146–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0.1% 99.9%  
491 0.1% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.8%  
493 0.2% 99.7%  
494 0.2% 99.5%  
495 0.1% 99.4%  
496 0.5% 99.3%  
497 0.5% 98.7%  
498 0.8% 98%  
499 0.4% 97%  
500 2% 97%  
501 3% 95%  
502 1.2% 92%  
503 3% 91%  
504 0.7% 88%  
505 4% 87%  
506 2% 83%  
507 3% 81%  
508 5% 79%  
509 3% 74%  
510 10% 71%  
511 4% 61%  
512 4% 57% Median
513 5% 53%  
514 2% 48%  
515 20% 46%  
516 2% 26%  
517 3% 24%  
518 3% 21%  
519 3% 18%  
520 3% 15%  
521 3% 12%  
522 2% 9%  
523 0.4% 7%  
524 2% 6%  
525 0.3% 4%  
526 1.2% 4%  
527 0.3% 3%  
528 1.2% 2%  
529 0.4% 1.2%  
530 0.2% 0.8%  
531 0.1% 0.6%  
532 0.2% 0.5%  
533 0.1% 0.3%  
534 0.1% 0.2%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.3% 99.7%  
429 0.1% 99.4%  
430 0.2% 99.3%  
431 0.3% 99.1%  
432 0.4% 98.8%  
433 0.3% 98%  
434 0.7% 98%  
435 1.4% 97%  
436 0.3% 96%  
437 4% 96%  
438 3% 91%  
439 0.6% 88%  
440 3% 88%  
441 2% 85%  
442 5% 82%  
443 6% 77%  
444 3% 72%  
445 3% 69%  
446 2% 65%  
447 5% 63%  
448 2% 58% Median
449 5% 56%  
450 4% 51%  
451 4% 47%  
452 10% 43%  
453 8% 32%  
454 4% 25%  
455 3% 21%  
456 1.4% 18%  
457 2% 16%  
458 3% 15%  
459 3% 12%  
460 0.8% 9%  
461 5% 8%  
462 0.5% 3%  
463 1.1% 3%  
464 0.6% 2%  
465 0.2% 1.2%  
466 0.1% 1.0%  
467 0.2% 0.9%  
468 0.2% 0.7%  
469 0% 0.5%  
470 0.3% 0.5%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.7% 99.6%  
419 0.2% 99.0%  
420 0.4% 98.7%  
421 0.9% 98%  
422 0.4% 97%  
423 1.4% 97%  
424 1.4% 96%  
425 1.5% 94%  
426 4% 93%  
427 2% 89%  
428 1.1% 87%  
429 3% 86%  
430 2% 83%  
431 3% 81%  
432 2% 79%  
433 3% 76%  
434 3% 73%  
435 5% 70%  
436 4% 65%  
437 8% 61%  
438 3% 53% Median
439 5% 51%  
440 2% 45%  
441 12% 44%  
442 2% 31%  
443 9% 29%  
444 6% 21%  
445 2% 15%  
446 2% 13%  
447 4% 10%  
448 2% 7%  
449 0.6% 5%  
450 1.2% 4%  
451 0.5% 3%  
452 0.6% 3%  
453 0.4% 2%  
454 0.7% 2%  
455 0.2% 1.0%  
456 0.1% 0.8%  
457 0.3% 0.8%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.4%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0.1% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.6%  
387 0% 99.4%  
388 0.4% 99.4%  
389 0.2% 99.0%  
390 0.9% 98.8%  
391 0.5% 98%  
392 0.7% 97%  
393 0.7% 97%  
394 1.2% 96%  
395 2% 95%  
396 2% 93%  
397 2% 91%  
398 1.4% 89%  
399 5% 88%  
400 0.8% 83%  
401 3% 82%  
402 4% 79%  
403 3% 75%  
404 2% 72%  
405 8% 70%  
406 14% 62%  
407 2% 48% Median
408 3% 47%  
409 11% 44%  
410 3% 33%  
411 1.4% 30%  
412 6% 28%  
413 4% 22%  
414 1.4% 19%  
415 4% 17%  
416 3% 14%  
417 3% 10%  
418 0.5% 8%  
419 2% 7%  
420 2% 5% Last Result
421 0.4% 4%  
422 0.3% 3%  
423 0.7% 3%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.4% 2%  
426 0.6% 1.3%  
427 0.2% 0.7%  
428 0.2% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.2% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.6%  
379 0.1% 99.5%  
380 0.1% 99.5%  
381 0.4% 99.3%  
382 0.5% 98.9%  
383 0.7% 98%  
384 1.0% 98%  
385 0.6% 97%  
386 0.7% 96%  
387 0.8% 95%  
388 1.4% 95%  
389 2% 93%  
390 5% 91%  
391 2% 86%  
392 4% 84%  
393 4% 80%  
394 3% 76%  
395 4% 73%  
396 6% 69%  
397 6% 63%  
398 5% 57%  
399 2% 52% Median
400 2% 50%  
401 2% 48%  
402 9% 46%  
403 4% 37%  
404 10% 33%  
405 3% 22%  
406 2% 19%  
407 2% 18%  
408 1.3% 16%  
409 3% 14%  
410 2% 12%  
411 3% 10%  
412 0.4% 7%  
413 3% 6%  
414 0.4% 4%  
415 1.5% 3%  
416 0.3% 2%  
417 0.4% 1.5%  
418 0.2% 1.1%  
419 0.1% 0.9%  
420 0.4% 0.8%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.5% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.3%  
369 0.4% 99.2%  
370 0.6% 98.8%  
371 0.2% 98%  
372 0.8% 98%  
373 1.2% 97%  
374 0.6% 96%  
375 0.8% 95%  
376 0.5% 95%  
377 4% 94%  
378 1.4% 90%  
379 2% 89%  
380 2% 86%  
381 2% 84%  
382 6% 82%  
383 5% 77%  
384 3% 71%  
385 8% 69%  
386 5% 61%  
387 2% 56%  
388 2% 54%  
389 1.4% 52% Median
390 6% 51%  
391 3% 45%  
392 7% 42%  
393 11% 35%  
394 4% 24%  
395 6% 20%  
396 3% 14%  
397 2% 11%  
398 2% 9%  
399 0.6% 7% Last Result
400 1.5% 7%  
401 0.8% 5%  
402 1.4% 4%  
403 0.6% 3%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.7% 2%  
407 0.3% 1.0%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.2% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0.1% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.2% 99.7%  
338 0.2% 99.5%  
339 0.6% 99.4%  
340 0.3% 98.8% Last Result
341 0.8% 98.5%  
342 0.6% 98%  
343 1.1% 97%  
344 0.6% 96%  
345 1.0% 95%  
346 4% 94%  
347 2% 90%  
348 2% 88%  
349 0.7% 87%  
350 3% 86%  
351 3% 83%  
352 2% 80%  
353 3% 78%  
354 5% 75%  
355 7% 70% Majority
356 3% 63%  
357 7% 59%  
358 6% 53% Median
359 4% 47%  
360 3% 44%  
361 13% 41%  
362 4% 28%  
363 6% 24%  
364 1.3% 18%  
365 2% 17%  
366 3% 15%  
367 2% 11%  
368 2% 10%  
369 1.5% 8%  
370 1.4% 7%  
371 1.3% 5%  
372 0.7% 4%  
373 0.5% 3%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.6% 1.4%  
378 0.2% 0.8%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.4% 99.6%  
305 0.6% 99.3%  
306 0.7% 98.7%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.7% 98%  
310 0.9% 97%  
311 1.1% 96%  
312 1.4% 95%  
313 2% 94%  
314 2% 92%  
315 2% 89%  
316 0.9% 87%  
317 3% 86%  
318 6% 83%  
319 5% 77%  
320 4% 72%  
321 6% 68%  
322 3% 62%  
323 3% 59%  
324 4% 56%  
325 2% 52% Median
326 4% 50% Last Result
327 6% 46%  
328 3% 40%  
329 1.2% 36%  
330 16% 35%  
331 2% 19%  
332 5% 17%  
333 1.0% 12%  
334 0.6% 11%  
335 2% 11%  
336 3% 9%  
337 1.4% 6%  
338 2% 5%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.5% 1.4%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.2% 99.8%  
282 0.2% 99.5%  
283 0.6% 99.3%  
284 0.4% 98.7%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.7% 98%  
287 0.3% 97%  
288 0.4% 97%  
289 2% 96% Last Result
290 2% 95%  
291 0.5% 93%  
292 3% 92%  
293 3% 90%  
294 4% 86%  
295 1.4% 83%  
296 4% 81%  
297 6% 78%  
298 1.4% 72%  
299 3% 70%  
300 11% 67%  
301 3% 56%  
302 2% 53% Median
303 14% 52%  
304 8% 38%  
305 2% 30%  
306 3% 28%  
307 4% 25%  
308 3% 21%  
309 0.8% 18%  
310 5% 17%  
311 1.4% 12%  
312 2% 11%  
313 2% 9%  
314 2% 7%  
315 1.2% 5%  
316 0.7% 4%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.9% 2%  
320 0.2% 1.2%  
321 0.4% 1.0%  
322 0% 0.6%  
323 0.2% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0.8% 99.5%  
268 0.1% 98.7%  
269 0.5% 98.5%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.8% 98%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 1.3% 96%  
274 0.7% 95%  
275 2% 94%  
276 0.8% 92%  
277 3% 91%  
278 0.7% 88%  
279 3% 88%  
280 0.8% 84%  
281 14% 84%  
282 1.0% 69%  
283 6% 68%  
284 4% 63%  
285 3% 59% Median
286 8% 55%  
287 7% 47%  
288 5% 40%  
289 1.3% 35%  
290 5% 34%  
291 2% 29%  
292 2% 26%  
293 2% 24%  
294 5% 23%  
295 5% 18%  
296 3% 13%  
297 2% 10%  
298 2% 8%  
299 0.8% 7%  
300 2% 6% Last Result
301 0.3% 4%  
302 2% 4%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.5% 1.2%  
306 0.1% 0.7%  
307 0.3% 0.6%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.7%  
218 0.4% 99.6%  
219 0.1% 99.3%  
220 0% 99.2% Last Result
221 0.3% 99.2%  
222 1.2% 98.9%  
223 2% 98%  
224 0.5% 95%  
225 0.2% 95%  
226 2% 95%  
227 3% 93%  
228 3% 90%  
229 1.5% 87%  
230 1.1% 86%  
231 1.5% 85%  
232 8% 83%  
233 12% 75%  
234 2% 63%  
235 0.5% 62%  
236 11% 61% Median
237 9% 50%  
238 3% 41%  
239 2% 38%  
240 0.6% 37%  
241 4% 36%  
242 8% 33%  
243 9% 24%  
244 0.3% 15%  
245 0.3% 15%  
246 2% 15%  
247 4% 12%  
248 2% 8%  
249 0.6% 6%  
250 0.4% 6%  
251 2% 5%  
252 1.1% 3%  
253 0.5% 2%  
254 0.1% 1.5%  
255 0.1% 1.3%  
256 0.3% 1.3%  
257 0.7% 1.0%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0% 0.3%  
260 0% 0.2%  
261 0.1% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.4%  
162 0.5% 99.2%  
163 0.4% 98.8%  
164 2% 98%  
165 0.9% 97%  
166 2% 96%  
167 3% 94%  
168 1.0% 91%  
169 4% 90%  
170 2% 86%  
171 1.0% 84%  
172 3% 83%  
173 3% 79%  
174 5% 76%  
175 1.5% 71%  
176 7% 70%  
177 6% 63%  
178 11% 57%  
179 8% 46% Median
180 9% 39%  
181 1.3% 30%  
182 7% 28%  
183 4% 21%  
184 2% 17%  
185 2% 15%  
186 5% 12%  
187 2% 7%  
188 0.9% 6%  
189 0.4% 5%  
190 1.3% 4%  
191 0.8% 3%  
192 0.9% 2%  
193 0.4% 1.3%  
194 0.2% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.7%  
196 0.2% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.1% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.5%  
147 0.4% 99.3%  
148 0.5% 98.9%  
149 1.2% 98%  
150 2% 97%  
151 1.0% 95%  
152 2% 94%  
153 2% 92%  
154 2% 90%  
155 4% 88%  
156 3% 84%  
157 4% 81%  
158 3% 77%  
159 13% 73%  
160 3% 61%  
161 2% 58%  
162 4% 55% Median
163 3% 51%  
164 9% 48%  
165 5% 39%  
166 6% 34%  
167 6% 27%  
168 4% 22%  
169 6% 18%  
170 0.7% 12%  
171 3% 11%  
172 2% 8%  
173 1.4% 6%  
174 2% 5%  
175 0.4% 2%  
176 0.3% 2%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.2% 1.1%  
179 0.1% 0.9%  
180 0.4% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations