Opinion Poll by YouGov, 30 July–4 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 27.8–30.8% 27.5–31.2% 27.1–31.5% 26.4–32.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.5% 12.4–15.8% 11.9–16.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.7% 9.2–13.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.0–7.6% 5.8–7.8% 5.6–8.0% 5.3–8.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 221 210–232 207–235 204–239 199–246
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 136 127–145 125–148 122–151 118–157
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 105 97–114 95–117 93–119 90–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–91 74–93 72–95 69–100
Die Linke 69 68 61–75 60–77 58–79 55–83
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–57 44–59 42–60 40–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–51 38–53 0–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.1% 99.7%  
199 0.2% 99.6%  
200 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
201 0.3% 99.3%  
202 0.5% 98.9%  
203 0.5% 98%  
204 0.7% 98%  
205 0.7% 97%  
206 1.2% 96%  
207 1.2% 95%  
208 2% 94%  
209 2% 93%  
210 2% 90%  
211 3% 88%  
212 2% 85%  
213 3% 83%  
214 4% 80%  
215 3% 76%  
216 5% 73%  
217 4% 67%  
218 5% 64%  
219 5% 59%  
220 4% 54%  
221 5% 50% Median
222 5% 46%  
223 5% 41%  
224 4% 36%  
225 4% 32%  
226 3% 27%  
227 3% 24%  
228 2% 21%  
229 3% 19%  
230 3% 16%  
231 2% 13%  
232 2% 11%  
233 2% 9%  
234 1.3% 7%  
235 1.1% 6%  
236 0.7% 5%  
237 0.8% 4%  
238 0.6% 3%  
239 0.5% 3%  
240 0.5% 2%  
241 0.4% 2%  
242 0.3% 1.3%  
243 0.2% 1.1%  
244 0.2% 0.8%  
245 0.1% 0.6%  
246 0.1% 0.5%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.3%  
120 0.4% 99.0%  
121 0.6% 98.6%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 1.0% 97%  
124 1.2% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 2% 91%  
128 3% 89%  
129 3% 86%  
130 5% 83%  
131 5% 78%  
132 4% 73%  
133 5% 69%  
134 6% 64%  
135 6% 58%  
136 6% 52% Median
137 4% 46%  
138 7% 41%  
139 6% 35%  
140 4% 29%  
141 5% 25%  
142 4% 21%  
143 3% 16%  
144 2% 13%  
145 2% 11%  
146 2% 9%  
147 1.2% 7%  
148 1.0% 5%  
149 1.2% 4%  
150 0.7% 3%  
151 0.6% 3%  
152 0.4% 2%  
153 0.3% 2%  
154 0.3% 1.3%  
155 0.2% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.7%  
157 0.1% 0.5%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.4% 99.2%  
92 0.6% 98.8%  
93 1.0% 98%  
94 1.3% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 2% 94%  
97 2% 92%  
98 3% 90%  
99 4% 86%  
100 5% 82%  
101 5% 78%  
102 5% 73%  
103 6% 67%  
104 6% 61%  
105 5% 55% Median
106 6% 49%  
107 5% 44%  
108 6% 39%  
109 6% 33%  
110 5% 28%  
111 4% 23%  
112 4% 19%  
113 3% 15%  
114 2% 12%  
115 2% 9%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.0% 5%  
118 1.3% 4%  
119 0.9% 3%  
120 0.6% 2%  
121 0.4% 2%  
122 0.3% 1.1%  
123 0.2% 0.8%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 98.9%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 1.4% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 3% 92%  
77 4% 88%  
78 4% 84%  
79 5% 80%  
80 6% 75%  
81 7% 69%  
82 6% 61%  
83 6% 56% Median
84 8% 50%  
85 6% 42%  
86 5% 35%  
87 7% 31%  
88 4% 24%  
89 4% 20%  
90 4% 16%  
91 3% 12%  
92 3% 9%  
93 2% 7%  
94 1.2% 5% Last Result
95 1.0% 4%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 0.7% 98.8%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 3% 90%  
63 5% 86%  
64 7% 82%  
65 6% 75%  
66 6% 68%  
67 7% 62%  
68 9% 55% Median
69 7% 46% Last Result
70 7% 39%  
71 5% 32%  
72 6% 27%  
73 5% 21%  
74 2% 16%  
75 5% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.3% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.4%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.6%  
41 0.8% 99.2%  
42 1.3% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 4% 92%  
46 6% 88% Last Result
47 6% 83%  
48 7% 77%  
49 8% 70%  
50 9% 61%  
51 8% 52% Median
52 9% 43%  
53 7% 35%  
54 7% 28%  
55 6% 21%  
56 4% 16%  
57 3% 12%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.1% 3%  
61 0.7% 2%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 2% 97%  
39 4% 95%  
40 3% 91%  
41 5% 87%  
42 9% 82%  
43 8% 73%  
44 8% 65%  
45 12% 57% Median
46 7% 45%  
47 7% 38%  
48 8% 32%  
49 6% 24%  
50 5% 17%  
51 5% 13%  
52 3% 8%  
53 1.4% 5%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.4%  
57 0.4% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 512 100% 502–524 499–529 496–543 491–555
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 452 100% 440–463 436–466 433–469 425–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 422 100% 410–433 405–436 401–439 392–445
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 395–420 392–424 389–431 384–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 399 100% 387–411 383–415 379–418 368–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.3% 366–389 362–394 359–400 354–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 355 51% 343–367 340–372 337–377 331–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 316 0% 304–328 299–331 293–334 278–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 310 0% 298–322 294–326 291–330 286–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 286 0% 274–298 269–301 262–304 247–309
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 241 0% 231–253 227–256 225–260 220–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 164–184 161–187 159–190 154–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 151 0% 140–161 136–163 116–166 106–170

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 99.9%  
487 0% 99.9%  
488 0.1% 99.9%  
489 0.1% 99.8%  
490 0.1% 99.7%  
491 0.2% 99.6%  
492 0.2% 99.4%  
493 0.4% 99.2%  
494 0.4% 98.9%  
495 0.4% 98%  
496 0.7% 98%  
497 0.8% 97%  
498 0.9% 97%  
499 1.5% 96%  
500 1.2% 94%  
501 2% 93%  
502 3% 91%  
503 2% 88%  
504 3% 86%  
505 3% 83%  
506 4% 80%  
507 3% 76%  
508 4% 73%  
509 5% 69%  
510 4% 64%  
511 5% 59%  
512 6% 54%  
513 4% 49% Median
514 5% 45%  
515 5% 40%  
516 4% 34%  
517 3% 31%  
518 4% 27%  
519 3% 23%  
520 2% 20%  
521 3% 18%  
522 3% 15%  
523 1.2% 12%  
524 2% 11%  
525 1.4% 9%  
526 0.7% 7%  
527 0.9% 6%  
528 0.5% 6%  
529 0.5% 5%  
530 0.4% 5%  
531 0.3% 4%  
532 0.2% 4%  
533 0.1% 4%  
534 0.2% 4%  
535 0.2% 3%  
536 0.1% 3%  
537 0.1% 3%  
538 0.2% 3%  
539 0% 3%  
540 0.1% 3%  
541 0.2% 3%  
542 0.1% 3%  
543 0.1% 3%  
544 0.2% 2%  
545 0.2% 2%  
546 0.1% 2%  
547 0.2% 2%  
548 0.3% 2%  
549 0.1% 1.4%  
550 0.1% 1.3%  
551 0.1% 1.2%  
552 0.2% 1.0%  
553 0.1% 0.8%  
554 0.1% 0.7%  
555 0.1% 0.6%  
556 0.1% 0.5%  
557 0.1% 0.4%  
558 0.1% 0.3%  
559 0% 0.2%  
560 0.1% 0.2%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0.1%  
565 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.6%  
425 0.1% 99.5%  
426 0.2% 99.4%  
427 0.2% 99.2%  
428 0.2% 99.1%  
429 0.2% 98.9%  
430 0.4% 98.7%  
431 0.4% 98%  
432 0.3% 98%  
433 0.5% 98%  
434 1.0% 97%  
435 0.8% 96%  
436 0.8% 95%  
437 1.0% 95%  
438 1.3% 94%  
439 2% 92%  
440 2% 91%  
441 1.5% 88%  
442 2% 87%  
443 2% 85%  
444 4% 82%  
445 2% 79%  
446 4% 76%  
447 4% 73%  
448 4% 69%  
449 3% 65%  
450 5% 62%  
451 5% 56%  
452 4% 51%  
453 3% 47% Median
454 4% 43%  
455 5% 39%  
456 4% 34%  
457 3% 29%  
458 3% 26%  
459 3% 23%  
460 4% 20%  
461 3% 17%  
462 2% 14%  
463 1.4% 11%  
464 2% 10%  
465 2% 8%  
466 1.4% 6%  
467 0.9% 4%  
468 0.7% 4%  
469 0.6% 3%  
470 0.7% 2%  
471 0.4% 2%  
472 0.3% 1.2%  
473 0.3% 0.9%  
474 0.2% 0.6%  
475 0.2% 0.5%  
476 0.1% 0.3%  
477 0.1% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.1% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.6%  
392 0.1% 99.5%  
393 0.1% 99.5%  
394 0.2% 99.4%  
395 0.1% 99.2%  
396 0.3% 99.1%  
397 0.2% 98.8%  
398 0.2% 98.7%  
399 0.3% 98%  
400 0.4% 98%  
401 0.3% 98%  
402 0.4% 97%  
403 0.4% 97%  
404 0.8% 97%  
405 1.0% 96%  
406 0.9% 95%  
407 1.0% 94%  
408 1.0% 93%  
409 1.0% 92%  
410 3% 91%  
411 2% 88%  
412 3% 86%  
413 2% 83%  
414 2% 82%  
415 2% 79%  
416 5% 77%  
417 5% 71%  
418 4% 67%  
419 3% 62%  
420 4% 60%  
421 4% 56%  
422 4% 52% Median
423 9% 48%  
424 3% 39%  
425 3% 36%  
426 2% 33%  
427 3% 30%  
428 6% 27%  
429 4% 21%  
430 2% 17%  
431 2% 15%  
432 1.4% 13%  
433 2% 12%  
434 3% 10%  
435 2% 7%  
436 1.0% 5%  
437 0.6% 4%  
438 0.5% 4%  
439 0.7% 3%  
440 0.7% 2%  
441 0.4% 2%  
442 0.3% 1.2%  
443 0.2% 0.9%  
444 0.1% 0.7%  
445 0.2% 0.6%  
446 0.1% 0.4%  
447 0.1% 0.3%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.2% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.5%  
385 0.2% 99.4%  
386 0.3% 99.2%  
387 0.5% 98.9%  
388 0.5% 98%  
389 0.7% 98%  
390 0.7% 97%  
391 1.0% 97%  
392 1.0% 96%  
393 1.4% 95%  
394 1.5% 93%  
395 2% 92%  
396 2% 90%  
397 2% 87%  
398 3% 86%  
399 3% 82%  
400 4% 79%  
401 3% 75%  
402 3% 72%  
403 4% 69%  
404 4% 65%  
405 4% 61%  
406 4% 56%  
407 5% 52%  
408 4% 47% Median
409 4% 43%  
410 4% 39%  
411 3% 36%  
412 3% 32%  
413 5% 29%  
414 3% 24%  
415 3% 21%  
416 3% 19%  
417 2% 16%  
418 2% 14%  
419 2% 12%  
420 2% 10%  
421 1.1% 8%  
422 0.8% 7%  
423 0.9% 7%  
424 0.8% 6%  
425 0.4% 5%  
426 0.6% 4%  
427 0.4% 4%  
428 0.3% 4%  
429 0.2% 3%  
430 0.3% 3%  
431 0.3% 3%  
432 0.1% 2%  
433 0.2% 2%  
434 0.3% 2%  
435 0.1% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.1% 1.5%  
438 0.1% 1.3%  
439 0.1% 1.2%  
440 0.1% 1.0%  
441 0.1% 0.9%  
442 0.1% 0.8%  
443 0.1% 0.7%  
444 0.1% 0.6%  
445 0.1% 0.5%  
446 0% 0.4%  
447 0.1% 0.3%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.5%  
369 0.1% 99.5%  
370 0.1% 99.3%  
371 0.1% 99.2%  
372 0.2% 99.2%  
373 0.1% 98.9%  
374 0.2% 98.8%  
375 0.2% 98.7%  
376 0.4% 98.5%  
377 0.3% 98%  
378 0.3% 98%  
379 0.2% 98%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 0.7% 97%  
382 0.5% 96%  
383 0.6% 96%  
384 1.4% 95%  
385 1.1% 94%  
386 0.9% 93%  
387 2% 92%  
388 2% 90%  
389 2% 88%  
390 2% 86%  
391 2% 84%  
392 4% 82%  
393 3% 78%  
394 3% 75%  
395 4% 72%  
396 6% 68%  
397 3% 62%  
398 4% 59%  
399 6% 55%  
400 5% 49% Median
401 4% 45%  
402 5% 40%  
403 3% 35%  
404 4% 32%  
405 4% 28%  
406 3% 24%  
407 3% 21%  
408 3% 18%  
409 1.3% 15%  
410 2% 14%  
411 2% 11%  
412 1.2% 9%  
413 1.0% 8%  
414 1.5% 7%  
415 1.0% 5%  
416 1.0% 4%  
417 0.8% 3%  
418 0.5% 3%  
419 0.6% 2%  
420 0.5% 1.5% Last Result
421 0.2% 1.0%  
422 0.2% 0.8%  
423 0.3% 0.7%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0.2% 99.5%  
355 0.2% 99.3% Majority
356 0.3% 99.1%  
357 0.3% 98.8%  
358 0.4% 98%  
359 0.6% 98%  
360 0.9% 97%  
361 0.9% 97%  
362 0.8% 96%  
363 1.1% 95%  
364 1.3% 94%  
365 2% 92%  
366 2% 90%  
367 2% 88%  
368 2% 85%  
369 3% 83%  
370 3% 80%  
371 6% 77%  
372 3% 72%  
373 4% 69%  
374 6% 65%  
375 4% 59%  
376 4% 55%  
377 5% 51% Median
378 3% 46%  
379 5% 43%  
380 5% 38%  
381 4% 33%  
382 3% 29%  
383 3% 25%  
384 3% 23%  
385 3% 20%  
386 2% 17%  
387 2% 14%  
388 2% 12%  
389 1.3% 10%  
390 1.1% 9%  
391 1.1% 8%  
392 0.9% 7%  
393 0.8% 6%  
394 0.6% 5%  
395 0.4% 5%  
396 0.6% 4%  
397 0.4% 4%  
398 0.3% 3%  
399 0.3% 3% Last Result
400 0.3% 3%  
401 0.3% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 0.1% 2%  
405 0.1% 1.4%  
406 0.1% 1.3%  
407 0.4% 1.2%  
408 0.1% 0.9%  
409 0.1% 0.8%  
410 0.1% 0.7%  
411 0% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.2% 99.7%  
332 0.2% 99.5%  
333 0.2% 99.3%  
334 0.3% 99.1%  
335 0.5% 98.8%  
336 0.4% 98%  
337 0.7% 98%  
338 0.9% 97%  
339 1.2% 96%  
340 0.7% 95% Last Result
341 1.3% 94%  
342 2% 93%  
343 2% 91%  
344 2% 89%  
345 2% 87%  
346 3% 85%  
347 3% 81%  
348 3% 78%  
349 5% 76%  
350 3% 71%  
351 5% 68%  
352 4% 64%  
353 7% 60%  
354 2% 53%  
355 6% 51% Median, Majority
356 3% 45%  
357 5% 42%  
358 2% 37%  
359 6% 35%  
360 4% 29%  
361 3% 25%  
362 2% 23%  
363 4% 21%  
364 2% 17%  
365 2% 15%  
366 1.5% 13%  
367 2% 11%  
368 1.4% 9%  
369 1.1% 8%  
370 0.8% 7%  
371 0.9% 6%  
372 0.9% 5%  
373 0.4% 4%  
374 0.5% 4%  
375 0.4% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.2% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.1% 2%  
382 0.2% 2%  
383 0.1% 1.3%  
384 0.1% 1.2%  
385 0.2% 1.1%  
386 0.1% 0.8%  
387 0.1% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.5%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.3%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0.2% 99.1%  
285 0.3% 99.0%  
286 0.1% 98.7%  
287 0.1% 98.6%  
288 0.1% 98.5%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 0.2% 97%  
295 0.3% 97%  
296 0.4% 97%  
297 0.6% 96%  
298 0.5% 96%  
299 0.7% 95%  
300 0.8% 95%  
301 0.9% 94%  
302 1.3% 93%  
303 1.3% 92%  
304 2% 90%  
305 2% 89%  
306 2% 87%  
307 3% 85%  
308 3% 83%  
309 4% 79%  
310 2% 76%  
311 4% 73%  
312 3% 69%  
313 3% 66%  
314 5% 63%  
315 5% 58%  
316 5% 53%  
317 5% 48% Median
318 5% 44%  
319 2% 38%  
320 4% 36%  
321 4% 32%  
322 4% 28%  
323 4% 24%  
324 3% 20%  
325 3% 17%  
326 1.5% 14% Last Result
327 2% 13%  
328 2% 11%  
329 2% 9%  
330 1.3% 7%  
331 1.1% 6%  
332 1.0% 5%  
333 0.8% 4%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.2%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0.3% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.3% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.3%  
288 0.2% 99.2%  
289 0.5% 99.0% Last Result
290 0.6% 98.5%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0.8% 97%  
293 1.0% 97%  
294 1.0% 96%  
295 1.5% 95%  
296 1.0% 93%  
297 1.2% 92%  
298 2% 91%  
299 2% 89%  
300 1.3% 86%  
301 3% 85%  
302 3% 82%  
303 3% 79%  
304 4% 76%  
305 4% 72%  
306 3% 68%  
307 5% 65%  
308 4% 60%  
309 5% 55% Median
310 6% 51%  
311 4% 45%  
312 3% 41%  
313 6% 38%  
314 4% 32%  
315 3% 28%  
316 3% 25%  
317 4% 22%  
318 2% 18%  
319 2% 16%  
320 2% 14%  
321 2% 12%  
322 2% 10%  
323 0.9% 8%  
324 1.1% 7%  
325 1.4% 6%  
326 0.6% 5%  
327 0.5% 4%  
328 0.7% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.5%  
335 0.2% 1.3%  
336 0.1% 1.2%  
337 0.2% 1.1%  
338 0.1% 0.8%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0% 99.6%  
247 0.2% 99.6%  
248 0.1% 99.4%  
249 0.1% 99.4%  
250 0.1% 99.3%  
251 0.1% 99.2%  
252 0.2% 99.2%  
253 0.1% 98.9%  
254 0.1% 98.8%  
255 0.1% 98.7%  
256 0.2% 98.6%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.1% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.3% 97%  
264 0.2% 97%  
265 0.3% 97%  
266 0.4% 97%  
267 0.5% 96%  
268 0.4% 96%  
269 0.8% 95%  
270 0.8% 95%  
271 0.6% 94%  
272 1.2% 93%  
273 2% 92%  
274 1.4% 90%  
275 2% 89%  
276 2% 87%  
277 3% 85%  
278 3% 83%  
279 2% 79%  
280 4% 77%  
281 3% 73%  
282 5% 70%  
283 3% 65%  
284 5% 62%  
285 4% 58%  
286 5% 54% Median
287 3% 49%  
288 5% 45%  
289 4% 40%  
290 4% 36%  
291 4% 32%  
292 4% 29%  
293 4% 25%  
294 3% 21%  
295 2% 17%  
296 3% 15%  
297 2% 12%  
298 2% 11%  
299 2% 9%  
300 1.2% 7% Last Result
301 1.3% 6%  
302 0.9% 4%  
303 0.8% 3%  
304 0.5% 3%  
305 0.6% 2%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.3% 1.2%  
308 0.2% 0.9%  
309 0.2% 0.7%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.6%  
220 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
221 0.3% 99.2%  
222 0.3% 99.0%  
223 0.5% 98.6%  
224 0.6% 98%  
225 0.7% 98%  
226 1.0% 97%  
227 1.3% 96%  
228 1.4% 95%  
229 1.2% 93%  
230 2% 92%  
231 3% 90%  
232 2% 87%  
233 3% 85%  
234 3% 82%  
235 5% 79%  
236 3% 75%  
237 4% 71%  
238 4% 67%  
239 6% 63%  
240 3% 57%  
241 5% 54% Median
242 3% 49%  
243 5% 46%  
244 4% 40%  
245 5% 37%  
246 4% 32%  
247 4% 28%  
248 3% 24%  
249 4% 22%  
250 2% 17%  
251 2% 15%  
252 2% 13%  
253 2% 11%  
254 1.4% 9%  
255 1.0% 7%  
256 1.5% 6%  
257 0.7% 5%  
258 0.8% 4%  
259 0.5% 3%  
260 0.5% 3%  
261 0.4% 2%  
262 0.3% 2%  
263 0.3% 2%  
264 0.2% 1.3%  
265 0.2% 1.2%  
266 0.1% 0.9%  
267 0.2% 0.8%  
268 0% 0.6%  
269 0.1% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.3%  
273 0.1% 0.3%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.2% 99.7%  
154 0.2% 99.6%  
155 0.2% 99.4%  
156 0.4% 99.2%  
157 0.6% 98.9%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.9% 98%  
160 1.4% 97%  
161 2% 95%  
162 1.2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 3% 91%  
165 3% 88%  
166 2% 86%  
167 3% 83%  
168 5% 80%  
169 4% 75%  
170 5% 71%  
171 5% 66%  
172 6% 60%  
173 5% 55% Median
174 5% 49%  
175 5% 45%  
176 4% 40%  
177 4% 35%  
178 3% 32%  
179 4% 28%  
180 3% 24%  
181 3% 21%  
182 3% 17%  
183 3% 14%  
184 2% 12%  
185 2% 10%  
186 1.5% 8%  
187 1.2% 6%  
188 1.0% 5%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.2%  
194 0.2% 0.9%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.1% 99.6%  
106 0.1% 99.5%  
107 0.1% 99.4%  
108 0.1% 99.3%  
109 0.2% 99.2%  
110 0.3% 99.0%  
111 0.3% 98.7%  
112 0.3% 98%  
113 0.2% 98%  
114 0.2% 98%  
115 0.1% 98%  
116 0.2% 98%  
117 0.2% 97%  
118 0.1% 97%  
119 0.1% 97%  
120 0.1% 97%  
121 0.1% 97%  
122 0.1% 97%  
123 0.1% 97%  
124 0.1% 97%  
125 0% 97%  
126 0% 97%  
127 0% 97%  
128 0% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0.1% 97%  
131 0.1% 96%  
132 0.2% 96%  
133 0.2% 96%  
134 0.2% 96%  
135 0.5% 96%  
136 0.5% 95%  
137 0.8% 95%  
138 1.1% 94%  
139 1.5% 93%  
140 2% 91%  
141 2% 90%  
142 2% 88%  
143 3% 85%  
144 5% 83%  
145 3% 78%  
146 6% 75%  
147 5% 69%  
148 5% 64%  
149 5% 59%  
150 4% 55% Median
151 6% 51%  
152 5% 45%  
153 6% 40%  
154 4% 35%  
155 5% 31%  
156 4% 26%  
157 3% 22%  
158 4% 19%  
159 3% 16%  
160 3% 13%  
161 2% 10%  
162 2% 8%  
163 1.4% 6%  
164 1.5% 5%  
165 0.8% 4%  
166 0.7% 3%  
167 0.6% 2%  
168 0.4% 1.3%  
169 0.3% 1.0%  
170 0.3% 0.7%  
171 0.1% 0.5%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations