Opinion Poll by Kantar, 30 July–6 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.9% 29.4–32.4% 29.0–32.8% 28.6–33.2% 27.9–34.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.3% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 227 217–240 213–243 211–246 206–254
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 133 124–142 121–145 119–148 115–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 110 103–120 100–122 98–124 94–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 74–89 72–91 70–93 67–98
Die Linke 69 59 53–66 51–68 50–70 47–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–59 45–61 44–62 41–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–52 0–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0.2% 99.7%  
206 0.2% 99.6%  
207 0.3% 99.4%  
208 0.3% 99.1%  
209 0.5% 98.8%  
210 0.6% 98%  
211 0.7% 98%  
212 0.9% 97%  
213 1.1% 96%  
214 1.3% 95%  
215 2% 94%  
216 1.5% 92%  
217 3% 91%  
218 3% 88%  
219 3% 85%  
220 4% 82%  
221 3% 79%  
222 4% 75%  
223 5% 71%  
224 4% 67%  
225 5% 63%  
226 5% 58%  
227 4% 53% Median
228 4% 49%  
229 4% 45%  
230 4% 41%  
231 4% 37%  
232 3% 33%  
233 4% 30%  
234 3% 26%  
235 3% 23%  
236 2% 21%  
237 4% 19%  
238 3% 15%  
239 2% 12%  
240 2% 10%  
241 2% 8%  
242 0.9% 6%  
243 1.2% 5%  
244 0.7% 4%  
245 0.7% 4%  
246 0.5% 3%  
247 0.4% 2%  
248 0.5% 2%  
249 0.3% 1.5%  
250 0.3% 1.2%  
251 0.2% 1.0%  
252 0.1% 0.8%  
253 0.1% 0.6%  
254 0.1% 0.5%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.3% 99.5%  
117 0.4% 99.1%  
118 0.8% 98.7%  
119 0.9% 98%  
120 0.9% 97%  
121 1.2% 96%  
122 2% 95%  
123 2% 93%  
124 3% 92%  
125 3% 89%  
126 3% 86%  
127 3% 82%  
128 4% 79%  
129 5% 76%  
130 5% 71%  
131 7% 66%  
132 6% 59%  
133 6% 53% Median
134 5% 47%  
135 6% 43%  
136 6% 37%  
137 5% 31%  
138 5% 25%  
139 3% 20%  
140 2% 17%  
141 2% 15%  
142 3% 12%  
143 2% 9%  
144 1.5% 7%  
145 1.1% 6%  
146 1.0% 5%  
147 0.8% 4%  
148 0.7% 3%  
149 0.6% 2%  
150 0.5% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.3%  
152 0.3% 1.0%  
153 0.2% 0.7%  
154 0.2% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.2% 99.5%  
96 0.5% 99.2%  
97 0.7% 98.7%  
98 0.9% 98%  
99 1.3% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 94%  
102 2% 92%  
103 2% 90%  
104 3% 88%  
105 5% 85%  
106 5% 81%  
107 6% 75%  
108 7% 69%  
109 6% 62%  
110 6% 56% Median
111 6% 50%  
112 6% 44%  
113 4% 39%  
114 4% 34%  
115 4% 30%  
116 3% 26%  
117 4% 23%  
118 3% 19%  
119 4% 15%  
120 3% 12%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.4% 5%  
124 1.0% 3%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.4% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.3%  
128 0.3% 1.0%  
129 0.2% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.4% 99.4%  
69 0.7% 99.0%  
70 0.9% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 93%  
74 3% 91%  
75 3% 87%  
76 5% 84%  
77 5% 79%  
78 4% 74%  
79 7% 70%  
80 6% 63%  
81 6% 57%  
82 6% 51% Median
83 6% 45%  
84 8% 39%  
85 7% 31%  
86 6% 24%  
87 5% 19%  
88 3% 14%  
89 2% 11%  
90 2% 8%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.3% 5%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.6% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.2%  
97 0.2% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 0.6% 99.3%  
49 1.0% 98.7%  
50 2% 98%  
51 2% 96%  
52 3% 94%  
53 3% 91%  
54 4% 88%  
55 5% 84%  
56 7% 79%  
57 8% 71%  
58 9% 63%  
59 8% 55% Median
60 7% 46%  
61 7% 39%  
62 6% 32%  
63 5% 26%  
64 5% 20%  
65 4% 15%  
66 3% 11%  
67 2% 8%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.2% 4% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.4%  
43 0.9% 98.8%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94% Last Result
47 4% 91%  
48 6% 87%  
49 6% 81%  
50 6% 74%  
51 9% 68%  
52 6% 59%  
53 10% 52% Median
54 7% 43%  
55 8% 36%  
56 7% 28%  
57 5% 21%  
58 4% 16%  
59 3% 12%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.5% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.3% 1.0%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 1.3% 96%  
38 3% 95%  
39 5% 92%  
40 5% 87%  
41 7% 82%  
42 7% 75%  
43 8% 68%  
44 9% 60%  
45 10% 51% Median
46 9% 42%  
47 7% 32%  
48 7% 25%  
49 4% 18%  
50 3% 14%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 524 100% 514–535 510–540 508–556 503–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 457 100% 445–469 442–472 438–474 430–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 435 100% 423–447 419–450 415–453 407–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 413 100% 401–426 398–431 395–438 389–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 406 100% 393–418 389–421 385–424 375–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 391 100% 379–404 376–409 373–415 368–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 361 78% 350–375 346–379 343–384 338–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 324 0.1% 311–337 307–340 301–342 288–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 303 0% 291–316 288–320 285–324 280–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 288 0% 276–300 270–303 264–306 251–312
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 244 0% 233–256 230–260 227–264 222–271
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 162–181 156–183 154–187 151–193
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 155 0% 145–165 140–168 122–170 111–175

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.8%  
502 0.2% 99.7%  
503 0.2% 99.5%  
504 0.2% 99.4%  
505 0.3% 99.1%  
506 0.3% 98.8%  
507 0.6% 98%  
508 0.7% 98%  
509 1.1% 97%  
510 1.2% 96%  
511 1.1% 95%  
512 1.1% 94%  
513 2% 93%  
514 3% 90%  
515 3% 88%  
516 3% 84%  
517 3% 82%  
518 3% 78%  
519 5% 75%  
520 5% 70%  
521 3% 65%  
522 5% 62%  
523 5% 57% Median
524 4% 51%  
525 5% 47%  
526 5% 42%  
527 4% 38%  
528 4% 34%  
529 4% 30%  
530 4% 26%  
531 2% 22%  
532 3% 20%  
533 3% 17%  
534 2% 14%  
535 2% 12%  
536 1.4% 10%  
537 1.3% 8%  
538 0.7% 7%  
539 0.8% 6%  
540 0.6% 5%  
541 0.5% 5%  
542 0.2% 4%  
543 0.2% 4%  
544 0.2% 4%  
545 0.1% 4%  
546 0.1% 4%  
547 0.1% 4%  
548 0.1% 4%  
549 0.2% 3%  
550 0% 3%  
551 0.2% 3%  
552 0% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0.3% 3%  
555 0.1% 3%  
556 0.3% 3%  
557 0.1% 2%  
558 0.2% 2%  
559 0.2% 2%  
560 0.3% 2%  
561 0.2% 2%  
562 0.1% 1.4%  
563 0.2% 1.2%  
564 0.1% 1.0%  
565 0.2% 0.9%  
566 0.1% 0.7%  
567 0.2% 0.7%  
568 0.1% 0.5%  
569 0% 0.4%  
570 0.1% 0.3%  
571 0.1% 0.2%  
572 0.1% 0.2%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0.1%  
576 0% 0.1%  
577 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.7%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0.1% 99.6%  
431 0.2% 99.5%  
432 0.1% 99.3%  
433 0.2% 99.2%  
434 0.2% 99.0%  
435 0.4% 98.8%  
436 0.3% 98%  
437 0.5% 98%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.9% 97%  
440 0.6% 96%  
441 0.6% 96%  
442 1.0% 95%  
443 1.3% 94%  
444 1.1% 93%  
445 3% 92%  
446 2% 89%  
447 3% 87%  
448 2% 85%  
449 3% 83%  
450 2% 80%  
451 3% 78%  
452 3% 75%  
453 4% 72%  
454 4% 69%  
455 7% 65%  
456 5% 58%  
457 5% 53%  
458 5% 48% Median
459 4% 43%  
460 3% 39%  
461 4% 36%  
462 4% 33%  
463 4% 28%  
464 3% 25%  
465 3% 21%  
466 3% 18%  
467 3% 15%  
468 2% 12%  
469 2% 11%  
470 2% 9%  
471 2% 7%  
472 0.9% 5%  
473 1.1% 4%  
474 0.9% 3%  
475 0.6% 2%  
476 0.4% 2%  
477 0.4% 1.4%  
478 0.2% 1.0%  
479 0.2% 0.8%  
480 0.1% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0% 99.6%  
407 0.2% 99.6%  
408 0.2% 99.3%  
409 0.2% 99.2%  
410 0.1% 99.0%  
411 0.2% 98.9%  
412 0.2% 98.6%  
413 0.3% 98%  
414 0.4% 98%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.5% 97%  
417 0.6% 97%  
418 1.0% 96%  
419 0.7% 95%  
420 0.8% 95%  
421 1.3% 94%  
422 2% 92%  
423 1.2% 91%  
424 2% 89%  
425 3% 88%  
426 2% 85%  
427 4% 83%  
428 3% 79%  
429 2% 76%  
430 4% 74%  
431 5% 70%  
432 4% 65%  
433 3% 61%  
434 4% 58%  
435 7% 54% Median
436 3% 47%  
437 3% 44%  
438 5% 41%  
439 4% 36%  
440 3% 32%  
441 3% 28%  
442 3% 25%  
443 4% 22%  
444 3% 18%  
445 2% 16%  
446 2% 13%  
447 2% 11%  
448 2% 9%  
449 2% 7%  
450 0.9% 6%  
451 1.2% 5%  
452 0.7% 3%  
453 0.6% 3%  
454 0.6% 2%  
455 0.4% 2%  
456 0.3% 1.1%  
457 0.2% 0.8%  
458 0.2% 0.6%  
459 0.1% 0.5%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.2% 99.6%  
390 0.1% 99.5%  
391 0.1% 99.4%  
392 0.3% 99.2%  
393 0.5% 99.0%  
394 0.6% 98%  
395 0.4% 98%  
396 0.8% 97%  
397 0.9% 97%  
398 1.0% 96%  
399 1.0% 95%  
400 2% 94%  
401 3% 92%  
402 2% 89%  
403 1.4% 87%  
404 3% 86%  
405 3% 83%  
406 3% 80%  
407 5% 78%  
408 5% 73%  
409 3% 68%  
410 3% 65%  
411 3% 62%  
412 6% 59%  
413 4% 53% Median
414 5% 49%  
415 5% 44%  
416 4% 39%  
417 3% 35%  
418 3% 33%  
419 4% 30%  
420 4% 26%  
421 3% 22%  
422 2% 19%  
423 2% 17%  
424 2% 15%  
425 2% 13%  
426 2% 12%  
427 2% 9%  
428 0.9% 8%  
429 0.8% 7%  
430 0.7% 6%  
431 0.5% 5%  
432 0.4% 5%  
433 0.5% 4%  
434 0.4% 4%  
435 0.4% 3%  
436 0.2% 3%  
437 0.2% 3%  
438 0.2% 3%  
439 0.3% 2%  
440 0.1% 2%  
441 0.2% 2%  
442 0.2% 2%  
443 0.2% 2%  
444 0.2% 1.4%  
445 0.1% 1.2%  
446 0.1% 1.1%  
447 0.1% 1.0%  
448 0.1% 0.9%  
449 0.1% 0.8%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0% 99.7%  
374 0.2% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.5%  
376 0.1% 99.4%  
377 0.1% 99.3%  
378 0.3% 99.1%  
379 0.1% 98.9%  
380 0.1% 98.8%  
381 0.3% 98.7%  
382 0.3% 98%  
383 0.2% 98%  
384 0.3% 98%  
385 0.5% 98%  
386 0.6% 97%  
387 0.6% 96%  
388 0.7% 96%  
389 0.7% 95%  
390 1.0% 94%  
391 1.0% 94%  
392 2% 93%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 89%  
395 1.3% 86%  
396 2% 85%  
397 3% 83%  
398 3% 80%  
399 2% 77%  
400 3% 74%  
401 4% 71%  
402 3% 68%  
403 2% 64%  
404 4% 62%  
405 5% 58%  
406 6% 53%  
407 4% 47% Median
408 4% 44%  
409 4% 39%  
410 6% 36%  
411 3% 30%  
412 4% 26%  
413 3% 22%  
414 3% 19%  
415 2% 16%  
416 2% 14%  
417 2% 12%  
418 2% 10%  
419 1.4% 8%  
420 1.3% 7% Last Result
421 0.8% 5%  
422 1.3% 4%  
423 0.6% 3%  
424 0.5% 3%  
425 0.4% 2%  
426 0.5% 2%  
427 0.3% 1.2%  
428 0.2% 0.8%  
429 0.1% 0.6%  
430 0.1% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.3% 99.1%  
371 0.5% 98.8%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 1.0% 97%  
375 0.9% 96%  
376 0.9% 95%  
377 2% 94%  
378 1.3% 93%  
379 2% 91%  
380 2% 90%  
381 4% 88%  
382 2% 84%  
383 3% 82%  
384 5% 79%  
385 2% 75%  
386 4% 73%  
387 5% 69%  
388 3% 63%  
389 3% 60%  
390 4% 57% Median
391 5% 53%  
392 3% 48%  
393 3% 44%  
394 5% 42%  
395 4% 36%  
396 3% 33%  
397 4% 30%  
398 4% 26%  
399 2% 22% Last Result
400 3% 20%  
401 2% 17%  
402 2% 15%  
403 2% 13%  
404 1.1% 11%  
405 1.2% 10%  
406 1.0% 8%  
407 1.4% 7%  
408 0.6% 6%  
409 0.6% 5%  
410 0.5% 5%  
411 0.6% 4%  
412 0.4% 4%  
413 0.3% 3%  
414 0.3% 3%  
415 0.2% 3%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.1% 2%  
418 0.3% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.1% 2%  
421 0.1% 1.5%  
422 0.2% 1.4%  
423 0.1% 1.1%  
424 0.1% 1.0%  
425 0.1% 0.9%  
426 0.3% 0.8%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.4%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0.2% 99.6%  
339 0.3% 99.4%  
340 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
341 0.3% 98.8%  
342 0.4% 98%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 0.5% 97%  
345 1.0% 97%  
346 1.3% 96%  
347 0.8% 95%  
348 2% 94%  
349 2% 92%  
350 3% 90%  
351 2% 87%  
352 2% 85%  
353 2% 83%  
354 3% 81%  
355 3% 78% Majority
356 4% 75%  
357 4% 72%  
358 4% 67%  
359 4% 64%  
360 5% 60%  
361 5% 55%  
362 3% 50% Median
363 3% 47%  
364 5% 43%  
365 3% 38%  
366 4% 36%  
367 4% 32%  
368 3% 28%  
369 4% 25%  
370 3% 21%  
371 3% 18%  
372 2% 15%  
373 2% 13%  
374 2% 12%  
375 2% 10%  
376 2% 9%  
377 0.7% 7%  
378 0.9% 6%  
379 0.7% 5%  
380 0.7% 5%  
381 0.5% 4%  
382 0.6% 4%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.2% 3%  
385 0.5% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.1% 2%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.1% 1.4%  
390 0.2% 1.3%  
391 0.1% 1.0%  
392 0.2% 1.0%  
393 0.1% 0.8%  
394 0.2% 0.7%  
395 0.1% 0.6%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0% 99.5%  
290 0.2% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.2%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0.1% 98.9%  
295 0.1% 98.8%  
296 0.2% 98.6%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.2% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.2% 98%  
302 0.3% 97%  
303 0.4% 97%  
304 0.5% 97%  
305 0.5% 96%  
306 0.6% 96%  
307 0.9% 95%  
308 1.0% 94%  
309 0.9% 93%  
310 1.0% 92%  
311 2% 91%  
312 2% 89%  
313 2% 88%  
314 2% 86%  
315 1.4% 84%  
316 4% 82%  
317 2% 79%  
318 4% 77%  
319 3% 73%  
320 3% 70%  
321 5% 67%  
322 4% 62%  
323 4% 58%  
324 4% 54%  
325 5% 49% Median
326 5% 45% Last Result
327 4% 40%  
328 4% 36%  
329 2% 32%  
330 4% 30%  
331 3% 26%  
332 3% 23%  
333 3% 20%  
334 2% 17%  
335 3% 16%  
336 2% 13%  
337 2% 10%  
338 2% 9%  
339 1.3% 7%  
340 1.1% 5%  
341 1.2% 4%  
342 0.7% 3%  
343 0.7% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.3%  
346 0.2% 1.0%  
347 0.2% 0.8%  
348 0.2% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.2% 99.4%  
282 0.3% 99.2%  
283 0.5% 98.8%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.6% 97%  
287 1.3% 97%  
288 0.8% 96%  
289 1.3% 95% Last Result
290 1.4% 93%  
291 2% 92%  
292 2% 90%  
293 2% 88%  
294 2% 86%  
295 3% 84%  
296 3% 81%  
297 4% 78%  
298 3% 74%  
299 6% 70%  
300 4% 64%  
301 4% 61%  
302 4% 56% Median
303 6% 53%  
304 5% 47%  
305 4% 42%  
306 2% 38%  
307 3% 36%  
308 4% 32%  
309 3% 29%  
310 2% 26%  
311 3% 23%  
312 3% 20%  
313 2% 17%  
314 1.3% 15%  
315 2% 14%  
316 2% 11%  
317 2% 9%  
318 1.0% 7%  
319 1.0% 6%  
320 0.7% 6%  
321 0.7% 5%  
322 0.6% 4%  
323 0.6% 4%  
324 0.5% 3%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.2% 2%  
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.1% 1.3%  
330 0.1% 1.2%  
331 0.3% 1.1%  
332 0.1% 0.9%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.2% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0% 99.3%  
254 0.1% 99.3%  
255 0.3% 99.2%  
256 0.2% 98.9%  
257 0.3% 98.7%  
258 0.1% 98%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0.1% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.2% 97%  
266 0.5% 97%  
267 0.3% 97%  
268 0.5% 96%  
269 0.7% 96%  
270 0.3% 95%  
271 0.9% 95%  
272 0.7% 94%  
273 0.7% 93%  
274 0.7% 92%  
275 1.5% 92%  
276 2% 90%  
277 2% 89%  
278 2% 87%  
279 3% 85%  
280 3% 82%  
281 3% 79%  
282 3% 76%  
283 4% 72%  
284 4% 69%  
285 4% 65%  
286 3% 61%  
287 4% 58%  
288 4% 54% Median
289 6% 50%  
290 4% 44%  
291 5% 40%  
292 5% 35%  
293 4% 30%  
294 3% 26%  
295 3% 24%  
296 3% 21%  
297 2% 18%  
298 2% 16%  
299 3% 14%  
300 2% 11% Last Result
301 2% 9%  
302 2% 7%  
303 1.5% 6%  
304 0.8% 4%  
305 0.7% 3%  
306 0.6% 3%  
307 0.5% 2%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.3%  
310 0.2% 1.0%  
311 0.3% 0.8%  
312 0.2% 0.5%  
313 0.1% 0.4%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
221 0.2% 99.7%  
222 0.2% 99.5%  
223 0.4% 99.4%  
224 0.3% 99.0%  
225 0.2% 98.7%  
226 0.6% 98%  
227 0.5% 98%  
228 1.0% 97%  
229 0.6% 96%  
230 2% 96%  
231 0.9% 94%  
232 3% 93%  
233 2% 90%  
234 3% 89%  
235 2% 85%  
236 3% 84%  
237 2% 81%  
238 4% 79%  
239 5% 75%  
240 5% 70%  
241 6% 65%  
242 4% 59%  
243 5% 55% Median
244 2% 50%  
245 5% 48%  
246 4% 43%  
247 7% 39%  
248 3% 33%  
249 4% 30%  
250 2% 26%  
251 4% 24%  
252 2% 20%  
253 3% 19%  
254 2% 16%  
255 4% 14%  
256 1.2% 10%  
257 1.4% 9%  
258 2% 8%  
259 0.8% 6%  
260 1.1% 5%  
261 0.5% 4%  
262 0.7% 4%  
263 0.3% 3%  
264 0.6% 3%  
265 0.2% 2%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0.1% 1.3%  
268 0.3% 1.2%  
269 0.2% 0.9%  
270 0.1% 0.7%  
271 0.1% 0.6%  
272 0.1% 0.5%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.3% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.7% 99.2%  
154 1.4% 98.5%  
155 2% 97%  
156 1.3% 96%  
157 1.2% 94%  
158 1.3% 93%  
159 0.7% 92%  
160 0.3% 91%  
161 0.6% 91%  
162 0.8% 90%  
163 3% 89%  
164 4% 86%  
165 4% 82%  
166 8% 79%  
167 12% 71%  
168 9% 59%  
169 4% 50% Median
170 8% 46%  
171 4% 38%  
172 1.1% 35%  
173 1.4% 33%  
174 0.9% 32%  
175 1.4% 31%  
176 3% 30%  
177 3% 27%  
178 2% 24%  
179 6% 22%  
180 5% 16%  
181 2% 10%  
182 3% 9%  
183 2% 6%  
184 0.7% 4%  
185 0.4% 3%  
186 0.3% 3%  
187 0.3% 3%  
188 0.3% 2%  
189 0.6% 2%  
190 0.2% 1.4%  
191 0.2% 1.2%  
192 0.4% 1.0%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0% 99.6%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.5%  
113 0.2% 99.4%  
114 0.2% 99.2%  
115 0.2% 99.0%  
116 0.2% 98.8%  
117 0.2% 98.6%  
118 0.2% 98%  
119 0.2% 98%  
120 0.2% 98%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.3% 98%  
123 0.2% 97%  
124 0.1% 97%  
125 0.1% 97%  
126 0.1% 97%  
127 0.1% 97%  
128 0.1% 97%  
129 0.1% 97%  
130 0.1% 97%  
131 0% 97%  
132 0.1% 96%  
133 0% 96%  
134 0.1% 96%  
135 0.1% 96%  
136 0.1% 96%  
137 0.2% 96%  
138 0.3% 96%  
139 0.3% 95%  
140 0.5% 95%  
141 0.7% 95%  
142 0.7% 94%  
143 1.2% 93%  
144 2% 92%  
145 2% 90%  
146 2% 89%  
147 2% 86%  
148 3% 84%  
149 4% 81%  
150 3% 77%  
151 5% 74%  
152 4% 68%  
153 6% 64%  
154 5% 58%  
155 5% 54% Median
156 6% 49%  
157 5% 43%  
158 5% 38%  
159 4% 33%  
160 4% 30%  
161 4% 25%  
162 3% 21%  
163 3% 18%  
164 3% 15%  
165 2% 12%  
166 2% 10%  
167 1.5% 7%  
168 1.3% 6%  
169 1.0% 5%  
170 1.2% 4%  
171 0.6% 2%  
172 0.5% 2%  
173 0.4% 1.3%  
174 0.3% 1.0%  
175 0.2% 0.7%  
176 0.1% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations