Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 7–10 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.5% 7.7–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 209 200–219 197–222 195–224 191–230
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–128 110–130 108–132 105–136
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 120 112–128 110–130 108–132 105–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 73–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 64 58–70 57–72 55–73 52–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 63 58–70 57–71 55–74 53–76
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 49 43–54 42–56 41–57 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0.2% 99.5%  
192 0.3% 99.3%  
193 0.5% 99.0%  
194 0.5% 98.5%  
195 0.8% 98%  
196 1.0% 97%  
197 2% 96%  
198 2% 95%  
199 2% 92%  
200 2% 91% Last Result
201 3% 88%  
202 3% 85%  
203 3% 82%  
204 3% 79%  
205 4% 75%  
206 6% 71%  
207 5% 65%  
208 5% 60%  
209 6% 55% Median
210 6% 49%  
211 4% 42%  
212 5% 38%  
213 4% 33%  
214 5% 29%  
215 3% 24%  
216 3% 21%  
217 3% 17%  
218 3% 15%  
219 2% 12%  
220 2% 9%  
221 2% 7%  
222 1.2% 5%  
223 1.1% 4%  
224 0.7% 3%  
225 0.5% 2%  
226 0.5% 2%  
227 0.3% 1.3%  
228 0.3% 1.0%  
229 0.2% 0.7%  
230 0.1% 0.5%  
231 0.1% 0.4%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.3%  
107 0.6% 98.9%  
108 1.0% 98%  
109 1.0% 97%  
110 1.3% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 3% 93%  
113 3% 90%  
114 4% 86%  
115 6% 82%  
116 4% 76%  
117 5% 72%  
118 5% 66%  
119 7% 61%  
120 5% 54% Median
121 7% 49%  
122 6% 42%  
123 6% 36%  
124 6% 30%  
125 5% 25%  
126 4% 19%  
127 5% 16%  
128 3% 11%  
129 2% 9%  
130 2% 7%  
131 1.3% 5%  
132 1.1% 4%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.5% 1.2%  
136 0.2% 0.7%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.5% 99.3%  
107 0.6% 98.8%  
108 1.0% 98%  
109 1.3% 97%  
110 1.4% 96%  
111 3% 95%  
112 2% 92%  
113 4% 89%  
114 5% 86%  
115 4% 81%  
116 6% 77%  
117 5% 71%  
118 6% 66%  
119 6% 59%  
120 7% 53% Median
121 6% 46%  
122 6% 39%  
123 5% 34%  
124 5% 28%  
125 4% 23%  
126 4% 19%  
127 3% 14%  
128 3% 11%  
129 2% 8%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.2% 5%  
132 1.1% 3%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.4% 2%  
135 0.5% 1.2%  
136 0.2% 0.7%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.7% 99.3%  
72 0.9% 98.7%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 95%  
76 4% 92%  
77 4% 88%  
78 5% 84%  
79 6% 79%  
80 9% 73%  
81 7% 64%  
82 7% 57% Median
83 8% 50%  
84 7% 42%  
85 7% 35%  
86 6% 28%  
87 5% 22%  
88 5% 17%  
89 3% 13%  
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.1% 3%  
94 0.7% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.3%  
96 0.3% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.2% 99.4%  
54 1.5% 99.2%  
55 2% 98%  
56 0.5% 96%  
57 5% 96%  
58 4% 90%  
59 1.1% 86%  
60 9% 85%  
61 8% 76%  
62 2% 67%  
63 11% 65%  
64 12% 55% Median
65 2% 43%  
66 10% 41%  
67 10% 31%  
68 1.3% 22%  
69 6% 20% Last Result
70 6% 14%  
71 0.6% 8%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.3% 2%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.7% 1.0%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.3%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 0.4% 96%  
57 2% 96%  
58 8% 94%  
59 6% 86%  
60 1.4% 80%  
61 4% 78%  
62 15% 75%  
63 13% 60% Median
64 2% 47%  
65 4% 45%  
66 11% 41%  
67 12% 30%  
68 2% 18%  
69 1.5% 16%  
70 5% 15%  
71 6% 10%  
72 0.8% 4%  
73 0.3% 3%  
74 1.0% 3%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.7%  
77 0% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.6%  
40 0.9% 99.2%  
41 1.5% 98%  
42 2% 97%  
43 5% 95%  
44 4% 89%  
45 8% 85%  
46 8% 77%  
47 7% 69%  
48 8% 62%  
49 13% 54% Median
50 9% 41%  
51 9% 31%  
52 5% 22%  
53 4% 17%  
54 4% 13%  
55 4% 9%  
56 2% 6%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.4% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 513 100% 504–523 502–525 500–527 495–533
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 442 100% 432–453 429–456 427–458 422–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 442 100% 432–452 429–455 427–458 422–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 405 100% 394–415 391–418 389–421 384–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 394 100% 383–404 381–406 378–410 372–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 393 100% 383–404 380–407 378–409 373–415
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 357 55% 345–365 343–369 341–373 336–377
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 322 0% 312–332 309–336 306–338 301–343
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 304 0% 294–315 291–318 288–320 283–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 289 0% 278–299 276–302 273–304 268–309
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 240 0% 230–250 228–253 225–255 221–260
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 185 0% 174–194 172–196 170–199 166–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 169 0% 160–178 157–180 155–182 151–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 99.9%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.9%  
493 0.1% 99.8%  
494 0.2% 99.7%  
495 0.3% 99.5%  
496 0.2% 99.2%  
497 0.4% 99.0%  
498 0.4% 98.5%  
499 0.5% 98%  
500 0.8% 98%  
501 1.4% 97%  
502 2% 95%  
503 3% 94%  
504 3% 91%  
505 2% 88%  
506 3% 87%  
507 3% 84%  
508 5% 81%  
509 3% 76%  
510 8% 73%  
511 5% 65%  
512 5% 60% Median
513 5% 55%  
514 3% 50%  
515 4% 47%  
516 6% 43%  
517 7% 37%  
518 4% 30%  
519 6% 26%  
520 4% 19%  
521 2% 16%  
522 2% 14%  
523 2% 11%  
524 2% 9%  
525 2% 7%  
526 1.2% 5%  
527 1.4% 4%  
528 0.4% 2%  
529 0.5% 2%  
530 0.3% 1.4%  
531 0.3% 1.1%  
532 0.3% 0.8%  
533 0.1% 0.5%  
534 0.1% 0.4%  
535 0% 0.3%  
536 0% 0.2%  
537 0% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.2%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.2% 99.5%  
423 0.3% 99.3%  
424 0.4% 99.0%  
425 0.5% 98.6%  
426 0.5% 98%  
427 1.1% 98%  
428 1.0% 97%  
429 2% 96%  
430 2% 94%  
431 2% 92%  
432 3% 90%  
433 3% 88%  
434 2% 84%  
435 3% 82%  
436 3% 79%  
437 4% 75%  
438 5% 71%  
439 5% 66%  
440 5% 61%  
441 4% 56% Median
442 5% 52%  
443 4% 47%  
444 4% 43%  
445 5% 39%  
446 6% 34%  
447 3% 29%  
448 3% 25%  
449 4% 22%  
450 3% 18%  
451 2% 15%  
452 3% 13%  
453 2% 10%  
454 2% 8%  
455 1.4% 7%  
456 1.1% 5%  
457 0.9% 4%  
458 1.0% 3%  
459 0.5% 2%  
460 0.4% 2%  
461 0.3% 1.1%  
462 0.2% 0.8%  
463 0.2% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.4%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.2% 99.6%  
423 0.3% 99.4%  
424 0.4% 99.1%  
425 0.4% 98.7%  
426 0.7% 98%  
427 0.6% 98%  
428 0.9% 97%  
429 1.3% 96%  
430 1.3% 95%  
431 2% 93%  
432 3% 92%  
433 2% 89%  
434 3% 87%  
435 4% 84%  
436 3% 80%  
437 3% 77%  
438 5% 74%  
439 6% 69%  
440 4% 63%  
441 5% 60% Median
442 5% 54%  
443 5% 49%  
444 6% 45%  
445 4% 38%  
446 4% 34%  
447 3% 30%  
448 5% 27%  
449 3% 22%  
450 4% 19%  
451 3% 15%  
452 3% 12%  
453 2% 9%  
454 2% 8%  
455 1.2% 6%  
456 0.9% 4%  
457 0.9% 4%  
458 0.7% 3%  
459 0.6% 2%  
460 0.4% 1.3%  
461 0.2% 0.9%  
462 0.2% 0.7%  
463 0.2% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.4%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.1% 99.6%  
384 0.1% 99.5%  
385 0.3% 99.4%  
386 0.4% 99.1%  
387 0.3% 98.7%  
388 0.5% 98%  
389 0.9% 98%  
390 1.1% 97%  
391 1.1% 96%  
392 1.2% 95%  
393 2% 94%  
394 3% 92%  
395 1.5% 89%  
396 3% 88%  
397 3% 85%  
398 5% 82%  
399 4% 77%  
400 4% 73%  
401 4% 69%  
402 5% 65%  
403 4% 60% Median
404 4% 55%  
405 5% 51%  
406 6% 46%  
407 5% 41%  
408 5% 36%  
409 3% 31%  
410 4% 28%  
411 3% 24%  
412 3% 20%  
413 3% 17%  
414 3% 14%  
415 2% 12%  
416 2% 9%  
417 2% 7%  
418 1.2% 6%  
419 1.1% 4%  
420 0.8% 3% Last Result
421 0.6% 3%  
422 0.3% 2%  
423 0.5% 2%  
424 0.2% 1.0%  
425 0.3% 0.8%  
426 0.1% 0.5%  
427 0.1% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.2% 99.7%  
373 0.2% 99.5%  
374 0.1% 99.3%  
375 0.2% 99.2%  
376 0.5% 98.9%  
377 0.8% 98%  
378 1.0% 98%  
379 0.8% 97%  
380 0.5% 96%  
381 1.0% 95%  
382 2% 94%  
383 4% 92%  
384 3% 89%  
385 1.2% 85%  
386 1.5% 84%  
387 4% 83%  
388 6% 78%  
389 5% 73%  
390 4% 67%  
391 2% 63%  
392 3% 61% Median
393 7% 59%  
394 6% 51%  
395 7% 45%  
396 3% 38%  
397 2% 35%  
398 4% 34%  
399 5% 29% Last Result
400 6% 24%  
401 3% 18%  
402 1.4% 15%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 12%  
405 3% 10%  
406 2% 6%  
407 0.9% 5%  
408 0.4% 4%  
409 0.6% 3%  
410 0.8% 3%  
411 0.9% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.2%  
413 0.1% 0.9%  
414 0.1% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.2% 99.5%  
374 0.3% 99.3%  
375 0.4% 99.0%  
376 0.5% 98.6%  
377 0.6% 98%  
378 0.7% 98%  
379 1.2% 97%  
380 2% 96%  
381 2% 94%  
382 1.5% 92%  
383 2% 91%  
384 3% 89%  
385 2% 85%  
386 3% 83%  
387 3% 80%  
388 4% 76%  
389 3% 72%  
390 6% 69%  
391 4% 63%  
392 5% 59% Median
393 6% 54%  
394 4% 48%  
395 4% 44%  
396 5% 40%  
397 5% 35%  
398 3% 30%  
399 5% 27%  
400 3% 22%  
401 3% 19%  
402 2% 16%  
403 3% 14%  
404 2% 11%  
405 1.2% 9%  
406 2% 7%  
407 1.2% 6%  
408 0.9% 4%  
409 1.1% 4%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.5% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.4%  
413 0.3% 1.1%  
414 0.2% 0.8%  
415 0.1% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.9%  
333 0.2% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0% 99.6%  
336 0.3% 99.6%  
337 0.7% 99.3%  
338 0.1% 98.6%  
339 0% 98.5%  
340 0.8% 98% Last Result
341 2% 98%  
342 1.0% 96%  
343 0% 95%  
344 2% 95%  
345 4% 93%  
346 1.0% 89%  
347 0% 87%  
348 2% 87%  
349 9% 85%  
350 2% 76%  
351 0% 74%  
352 6% 74%  
353 11% 68%  
354 2% 56% Median
355 0.1% 55% Majority
356 3% 55%  
357 14% 52%  
358 2% 38%  
359 0.1% 35%  
360 3% 35%  
361 11% 32%  
362 2% 21%  
363 0.1% 20%  
364 2% 20%  
365 7% 17%  
366 0.7% 10%  
367 0.1% 9%  
368 1.4% 9%  
369 4% 8%  
370 0.4% 4%  
371 0% 4%  
372 0.5% 4%  
373 2% 3%  
374 0.3% 1.4%  
375 0% 1.1%  
376 0.1% 1.1%  
377 0.5% 0.9%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.5%  
302 0.2% 99.4%  
303 0.3% 99.2%  
304 0.4% 98.9%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 0.8% 97%  
308 0.8% 96%  
309 0.9% 95%  
310 2% 95%  
311 2% 93%  
312 2% 91%  
313 3% 88%  
314 3% 85%  
315 2% 81%  
316 3% 79%  
317 5% 76%  
318 4% 71%  
319 4% 67%  
320 4% 63%  
321 6% 58% Median
322 5% 52%  
323 4% 47%  
324 5% 43%  
325 5% 38%  
326 3% 33% Last Result
327 4% 30%  
328 4% 26%  
329 4% 22%  
330 3% 18%  
331 3% 15%  
332 2% 12%  
333 2% 10%  
334 1.4% 8%  
335 1.4% 7%  
336 1.2% 5%  
337 0.8% 4%  
338 1.0% 3%  
339 0.6% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.2%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0.2% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.3% 99.5%  
285 0.2% 99.2%  
286 0.5% 99.0%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.6% 98%  
289 0.8% 97% Last Result
290 1.1% 97%  
291 1.2% 96%  
292 2% 94%  
293 2% 93%  
294 2% 91%  
295 3% 88%  
296 3% 86%  
297 3% 83%  
298 3% 80%  
299 4% 76%  
300 3% 72%  
301 5% 69%  
302 5% 64%  
303 6% 59%  
304 5% 54% Median
305 4% 49%  
306 4% 45%  
307 5% 40%  
308 4% 35%  
309 4% 31%  
310 4% 27%  
311 5% 23%  
312 3% 18%  
313 3% 15%  
314 1.5% 12%  
315 3% 11%  
316 2% 8%  
317 1.2% 6%  
318 1.1% 5%  
319 1.1% 4%  
320 0.9% 3%  
321 0.5% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.4% 1.3%  
324 0.3% 0.9%  
325 0.1% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.5%  
269 0.2% 99.4%  
270 0.2% 99.1%  
271 0.3% 98.9%  
272 0.7% 98.6%  
273 0.7% 98%  
274 1.1% 97%  
275 0.9% 96%  
276 1.5% 95%  
277 2% 94%  
278 2% 92%  
279 2% 89%  
280 3% 88%  
281 3% 85%  
282 3% 82%  
283 3% 79%  
284 4% 76%  
285 5% 71%  
286 4% 66%  
287 4% 63%  
288 6% 59%  
289 4% 53% Median
290 7% 50%  
291 5% 43%  
292 6% 38%  
293 3% 32%  
294 3% 29%  
295 5% 25%  
296 4% 21%  
297 4% 17%  
298 2% 13%  
299 2% 11%  
300 2% 8% Last Result
301 2% 7%  
302 1.2% 5%  
303 1.1% 4%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.4% 1.4%  
308 0.2% 1.0%  
309 0.3% 0.8%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
221 0.2% 99.5%  
222 0.4% 99.3%  
223 0.3% 98.9%  
224 0.6% 98.6%  
225 0.7% 98%  
226 1.0% 97%  
227 1.3% 96%  
228 1.4% 95%  
229 2% 94%  
230 2% 92%  
231 2% 90%  
232 4% 87%  
233 3% 84%  
234 3% 80%  
235 4% 77%  
236 4% 73%  
237 5% 69%  
238 4% 64%  
239 6% 60%  
240 4% 54% Median
241 5% 49%  
242 4% 44%  
243 7% 40%  
244 5% 33%  
245 4% 28%  
246 3% 24%  
247 3% 21%  
248 5% 18%  
249 3% 13%  
250 2% 11%  
251 2% 8%  
252 1.4% 7%  
253 1.2% 5%  
254 1.3% 4%  
255 0.7% 3%  
256 0.5% 2%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0.4% 1.3%  
259 0.3% 1.0%  
260 0.2% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3%  
263 0.1% 0.2%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.8%  
165 0.2% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.5%  
167 0.3% 99.3%  
168 0.5% 99.0%  
169 0.6% 98.5%  
170 0.8% 98%  
171 1.2% 97%  
172 2% 96%  
173 1.4% 94%  
174 3% 92%  
175 2% 90%  
176 3% 88%  
177 4% 85%  
178 4% 81%  
179 4% 77%  
180 4% 73%  
181 4% 69%  
182 4% 65%  
183 6% 61%  
184 5% 55% Median
185 5% 50%  
186 5% 45%  
187 5% 39%  
188 5% 34%  
189 4% 30%  
190 3% 25%  
191 6% 23%  
192 3% 17%  
193 3% 13%  
194 2% 11%  
195 2% 8%  
196 1.5% 6%  
197 1.3% 5%  
198 1.1% 4%  
199 0.8% 3%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.4% 1.2%  
202 0.3% 0.8%  
203 0.2% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0% 99.7%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0.3% 99.4%  
153 0.3% 99.1%  
154 0.4% 98.8%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.1% 97%  
157 1.4% 96%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 93%  
160 3% 92%  
161 3% 89%  
162 3% 86%  
163 4% 83%  
164 5% 79%  
165 4% 73%  
166 6% 70%  
167 6% 64%  
168 5% 58%  
169 5% 53% Median
170 4% 47%  
171 8% 43%  
172 5% 36%  
173 5% 30%  
174 5% 25%  
175 3% 21%  
176 4% 17%  
177 3% 14%  
178 3% 11%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.5% 6%  
181 1.2% 5%  
182 0.9% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.3%  
186 0.3% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations