Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 11 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.5–31.1% 27.0–31.7% 26.5–32.1% 25.7–33.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.7–13.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 215 202–228 198–232 195–236 189–243
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 132 121–144 118–148 115–150 111–156
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 110 100–121 97–125 95–128 90–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 81 72–90 70–93 67–96 64–101
Die Linke 69 67 58–76 56–78 54–81 51–85
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 45–60 43–62 41–64 38–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 43–59 41–61 39–63 36–66

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 99.7%  
189 0.2% 99.5%  
190 0.2% 99.4%  
191 0.3% 99.2%  
192 0.4% 98.9%  
193 0.3% 98.5%  
194 0.6% 98%  
195 0.6% 98%  
196 0.8% 97%  
197 0.6% 96%  
198 1.1% 96%  
199 1.2% 95%  
200 1.5% 93% Last Result
201 2% 92%  
202 2% 90%  
203 3% 89%  
204 2% 86%  
205 3% 84%  
206 2% 82%  
207 3% 79%  
208 3% 76%  
209 4% 74%  
210 4% 70%  
211 3% 66%  
212 4% 63%  
213 4% 59%  
214 4% 55%  
215 4% 52% Median
216 3% 48%  
217 4% 44%  
218 5% 40%  
219 2% 35%  
220 4% 33%  
221 3% 29%  
222 3% 27%  
223 3% 23%  
224 3% 21%  
225 2% 18%  
226 3% 16%  
227 2% 13%  
228 2% 12%  
229 2% 10%  
230 1.3% 8%  
231 0.9% 7%  
232 1.3% 6%  
233 0.6% 5%  
234 0.7% 4%  
235 0.5% 3%  
236 0.4% 3%  
237 0.6% 2%  
238 0.3% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.4%  
240 0.3% 1.2%  
241 0.2% 0.9%  
242 0.2% 0.7%  
243 0.1% 0.6%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.5%  
112 0.2% 99.4%  
113 0.4% 99.2%  
114 0.5% 98.8%  
115 0.8% 98%  
116 0.7% 97%  
117 1.2% 97%  
118 0.9% 96%  
119 1.1% 95%  
120 2% 94%  
121 2% 92%  
122 2% 90%  
123 3% 88%  
124 3% 85%  
125 3% 82%  
126 4% 79%  
127 4% 75%  
128 3% 71%  
129 5% 68%  
130 4% 63%  
131 4% 59%  
132 5% 55% Median
133 4% 49%  
134 4% 45%  
135 4% 41%  
136 3% 37%  
137 4% 34%  
138 4% 30%  
139 3% 25%  
140 4% 22%  
141 3% 18%  
142 2% 15%  
143 2% 13%  
144 1.3% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 1.5% 8%  
147 1.3% 6%  
148 1.1% 5%  
149 1.0% 4%  
150 0.7% 3%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.4% 2%  
153 0.4% 2% Last Result
154 0.3% 1.1%  
155 0.2% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 0.4% 99.1%  
93 0.5% 98.8%  
94 0.6% 98%  
95 0.7% 98%  
96 1.1% 97%  
97 1.3% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 2% 92%  
100 3% 90%  
101 3% 88%  
102 3% 85%  
103 4% 82%  
104 3% 78%  
105 3% 75%  
106 4% 72%  
107 5% 68%  
108 5% 63%  
109 6% 58%  
110 4% 52% Median
111 5% 48%  
112 5% 43%  
113 3% 38%  
114 4% 34%  
115 3% 31%  
116 3% 28%  
117 3% 25%  
118 3% 21%  
119 3% 18%  
120 3% 15%  
121 3% 12%  
122 2% 10%  
123 1.3% 8%  
124 1.0% 6%  
125 1.0% 5%  
126 0.7% 4%  
127 0.7% 4%  
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.3%  
132 0.2% 0.9%  
133 0.2% 0.7%  
134 0.1% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.3% 99.5%  
65 0.3% 99.2%  
66 0.6% 98.9%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 1.1% 97%  
69 1.2% 96%  
70 2% 95%  
71 2% 93%  
72 3% 91%  
73 3% 89%  
74 3% 85%  
75 4% 82%  
76 4% 77%  
77 5% 73%  
78 6% 69%  
79 5% 63%  
80 6% 58%  
81 5% 52% Median
82 5% 47%  
83 6% 42%  
84 5% 36%  
85 5% 32%  
86 4% 27%  
87 4% 23%  
88 4% 19%  
89 2% 15%  
90 3% 13%  
91 2% 10%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.2% 6%  
94 1.3% 5% Last Result
95 0.7% 4%  
96 0.8% 3%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.2% 1.0%  
100 0.3% 0.8%  
101 0.1% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 0.4% 99.3%  
53 0.7% 98.9%  
54 0.8% 98%  
55 1.3% 97%  
56 2% 96%  
57 2% 95%  
58 3% 92%  
59 3% 90%  
60 4% 87%  
61 5% 83%  
62 5% 79%  
63 5% 74%  
64 6% 69%  
65 6% 63%  
66 6% 57%  
67 5% 51% Median
68 5% 46%  
69 6% 41% Last Result
70 5% 34%  
71 4% 30%  
72 4% 25%  
73 4% 21%  
74 4% 17%  
75 3% 14%  
76 3% 11%  
77 2% 8%  
78 2% 7%  
79 1.2% 5%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 0.8% 3%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.7%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0% 99.7%  
9 0% 99.7%  
10 0% 99.7%  
11 0% 99.7%  
12 0% 99.7%  
13 0% 99.7%  
14 0% 99.7%  
15 0% 99.7%  
16 0% 99.7%  
17 0% 99.7%  
18 0% 99.7%  
19 0% 99.7%  
20 0% 99.7%  
21 0% 99.7%  
22 0% 99.7%  
23 0% 99.7%  
24 0% 99.7%  
25 0% 99.7%  
26 0% 99.7%  
27 0% 99.7%  
28 0% 99.7%  
29 0% 99.7%  
30 0% 99.7%  
31 0% 99.7%  
32 0% 99.7%  
33 0% 99.7%  
34 0% 99.7%  
35 0% 99.7%  
36 0% 99.7%  
37 0.1% 99.7%  
38 0.3% 99.6%  
39 0.5% 99.4%  
40 0.8% 98.8%  
41 1.2% 98%  
42 1.4% 97%  
43 2% 95%  
44 3% 93%  
45 3% 90%  
46 4% 87%  
47 5% 83%  
48 6% 78%  
49 6% 72%  
50 5% 66%  
51 7% 61%  
52 7% 54% Median
53 6% 46%  
54 6% 41%  
55 7% 35%  
56 5% 28%  
57 4% 23%  
58 5% 19%  
59 3% 14%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.4% 5%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.3% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.3% 99.6%  
37 0.7% 99.3%  
38 0.7% 98.7%  
39 1.1% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 2% 95%  
42 3% 93%  
43 4% 91%  
44 3% 87%  
45 5% 84%  
46 5% 79% Last Result
47 4% 74%  
48 7% 70%  
49 5% 62%  
50 5% 57%  
51 8% 53% Median
52 5% 45%  
53 5% 39%  
54 7% 34%  
55 4% 27%  
56 4% 23%  
57 5% 19%  
58 3% 14%  
59 3% 11%  
60 2% 8%  
61 1.5% 5%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 509 100% 496–522 492–526 488–529 482–537
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 450 100% 437–465 432–468 429–471 421–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 428 100% 414–442 410–447 406–450 399–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 399 100% 384–413 381–417 377–421 369–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 398 100% 384–413 380–418 376–421 369–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 377 97% 362–391 357–394 354–399 346–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 347 25% 332–362 328–366 324–369 318–377
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 318 0.1% 303–333 299–336 295–340 288–347
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 310 0% 296–325 292–328 288–332 280–340
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 295 0% 281–310 276–314 273–318 265–326
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 242 0% 229–258 224–261 222–265 216–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 200 0% 187–213 183–217 180–220 174–227
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 185 0% 172–197 169–202 166–205 158–211

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 99.9%  
476 0% 99.9%  
477 0% 99.9%  
478 0.1% 99.9%  
479 0.1% 99.8%  
480 0.1% 99.7%  
481 0.1% 99.7%  
482 0.1% 99.6%  
483 0.2% 99.4%  
484 0.2% 99.2%  
485 0.4% 99.0%  
486 0.4% 98.7%  
487 0.4% 98%  
488 0.6% 98%  
489 0.6% 97%  
490 0.8% 97%  
491 0.9% 96%  
492 0.9% 95%  
493 1.0% 94%  
494 1.4% 93%  
495 1.4% 92%  
496 2% 90%  
497 2% 88%  
498 2% 86%  
499 2% 84%  
500 3% 82%  
501 3% 79%  
502 3% 76%  
503 3% 72%  
504 3% 70%  
505 3% 66%  
506 4% 63%  
507 4% 59%  
508 4% 55% Median
509 5% 51%  
510 4% 47%  
511 4% 43%  
512 3% 39%  
513 4% 37%  
514 4% 32%  
515 3% 28%  
516 2% 25%  
517 4% 23%  
518 2% 20%  
519 3% 17%  
520 2% 15%  
521 2% 13%  
522 2% 11%  
523 1.2% 9%  
524 1.2% 8%  
525 1.2% 6%  
526 1.3% 5%  
527 0.6% 4%  
528 0.4% 3%  
529 0.6% 3%  
530 0.5% 2%  
531 0.4% 2%  
532 0.3% 1.3%  
533 0.2% 1.1%  
534 0.2% 0.9%  
535 0.1% 0.7%  
536 0.1% 0.6%  
537 0.1% 0.5%  
538 0.1% 0.4%  
539 0.1% 0.4%  
540 0% 0.3%  
541 0% 0.3%  
542 0% 0.3%  
543 0% 0.2%  
544 0% 0.2%  
545 0% 0.2%  
546 0% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.6%  
422 0.1% 99.4%  
423 0.2% 99.3%  
424 0.2% 99.1%  
425 0.2% 98.9%  
426 0.3% 98.7%  
427 0.4% 98%  
428 0.5% 98%  
429 0.3% 98%  
430 0.9% 97%  
431 0.7% 96%  
432 0.9% 96%  
433 0.8% 95%  
434 1.0% 94%  
435 1.1% 93%  
436 1.1% 92%  
437 2% 91%  
438 2% 88%  
439 2% 87%  
440 3% 85%  
441 3% 82%  
442 3% 79%  
443 3% 76%  
444 3% 72%  
445 3% 70%  
446 3% 67%  
447 4% 64%  
448 4% 60%  
449 4% 57%  
450 4% 53% Median
451 4% 49%  
452 4% 46%  
453 3% 42%  
454 3% 39%  
455 2% 36%  
456 3% 34%  
457 4% 31%  
458 3% 28%  
459 3% 24%  
460 3% 22%  
461 3% 18%  
462 2% 16%  
463 2% 14%  
464 1.3% 12%  
465 1.4% 10%  
466 1.5% 9%  
467 1.0% 7%  
468 1.5% 6%  
469 1.4% 5%  
470 0.6% 4%  
471 0.5% 3%  
472 0.4% 2%  
473 0.3% 2%  
474 0.3% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.3%  
476 0.2% 1.0%  
477 0.2% 0.8%  
478 0.2% 0.7%  
479 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9% Last Result
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.8%  
396 0% 99.8%  
397 0.1% 99.7%  
398 0.1% 99.6%  
399 0.2% 99.5%  
400 0.1% 99.4%  
401 0.1% 99.2%  
402 0.3% 99.1%  
403 0.3% 98.8%  
404 0.4% 98.5%  
405 0.4% 98%  
406 0.5% 98%  
407 0.6% 97%  
408 0.7% 97%  
409 0.6% 96%  
410 1.0% 95%  
411 1.1% 94%  
412 1.2% 93%  
413 2% 92%  
414 2% 91%  
415 2% 88%  
416 2% 87%  
417 2% 85%  
418 3% 83%  
419 2% 80%  
420 3% 78%  
421 2% 76%  
422 4% 73%  
423 3% 70%  
424 4% 67%  
425 3% 63%  
426 4% 60%  
427 4% 56%  
428 3% 52% Median
429 3% 49%  
430 3% 46%  
431 4% 43%  
432 4% 38%  
433 3% 35%  
434 3% 32%  
435 3% 29%  
436 3% 26%  
437 3% 23%  
438 2% 21%  
439 3% 19%  
440 2% 16%  
441 2% 14%  
442 2% 12%  
443 2% 10%  
444 1.0% 8%  
445 1.0% 7%  
446 1.0% 6%  
447 0.7% 5%  
448 1.0% 4%  
449 0.5% 3%  
450 0.7% 3%  
451 0.3% 2%  
452 0.4% 2%  
453 0.3% 1.4%  
454 0.3% 1.1%  
455 0.2% 0.8%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.2% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0% 99.7%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.1% 99.3%  
371 0.2% 99.2%  
372 0.2% 99.1%  
373 0.1% 98.8%  
374 0.2% 98.7%  
375 0.4% 98%  
376 0.3% 98%  
377 0.4% 98%  
378 0.4% 97%  
379 0.5% 97%  
380 0.6% 96%  
381 1.3% 96%  
382 1.0% 95%  
383 2% 94%  
384 3% 91%  
385 2% 88%  
386 2% 86%  
387 2% 84%  
388 1.5% 81%  
389 2% 80%  
390 2% 78%  
391 3% 76%  
392 3% 74%  
393 3% 70%  
394 4% 67%  
395 3% 63%  
396 3% 60%  
397 3% 58%  
398 3% 55%  
399 3% 52% Median
400 3% 49%  
401 3% 47%  
402 2% 44%  
403 2% 41%  
404 4% 39%  
405 3% 35%  
406 3% 32%  
407 6% 29%  
408 5% 23%  
409 2% 18%  
410 3% 16%  
411 2% 13%  
412 0.9% 11%  
413 1.0% 10%  
414 1.1% 9%  
415 1.1% 8%  
416 0.9% 7%  
417 1.3% 6%  
418 0.7% 5%  
419 0.8% 4%  
420 0.8% 3% Last Result
421 0.5% 3%  
422 0.5% 2%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.2% 1.4%  
425 0.2% 1.1%  
426 0.1% 0.9%  
427 0.1% 0.8%  
428 0.2% 0.7%  
429 0.1% 0.6%  
430 0.1% 0.4%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.6%  
369 0.1% 99.5%  
370 0.2% 99.4%  
371 0.1% 99.2%  
372 0.2% 99.1%  
373 0.3% 98.9%  
374 0.3% 98.6%  
375 0.6% 98%  
376 0.6% 98%  
377 0.5% 97%  
378 0.8% 97%  
379 0.7% 96%  
380 0.7% 95%  
381 1.2% 94%  
382 1.0% 93%  
383 1.4% 92%  
384 2% 91%  
385 2% 89%  
386 2% 87%  
387 2% 85%  
388 3% 83%  
389 2% 80%  
390 3% 78%  
391 3% 76%  
392 3% 73%  
393 3% 70%  
394 4% 67%  
395 4% 63%  
396 3% 59%  
397 3% 56%  
398 4% 53% Median
399 3% 50% Last Result
400 2% 47%  
401 5% 44%  
402 4% 39%  
403 3% 35%  
404 4% 32%  
405 3% 29%  
406 2% 26%  
407 3% 23%  
408 2% 21%  
409 2% 18%  
410 2% 17%  
411 2% 14%  
412 2% 13%  
413 2% 11%  
414 2% 9%  
415 1.3% 8%  
416 0.9% 6%  
417 0.5% 6%  
418 1.3% 5%  
419 0.6% 4%  
420 0.4% 3%  
421 0.7% 3%  
422 0.4% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.3% 1.4%  
425 0.2% 1.1%  
426 0.1% 0.9%  
427 0.1% 0.8%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0.1% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.4%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0.1% 99.5%  
348 0.1% 99.3%  
349 0.1% 99.2%  
350 0.2% 99.1%  
351 0.1% 99.0%  
352 0.5% 98.8%  
353 0.6% 98%  
354 0.6% 98%  
355 0.8% 97% Majority
356 1.1% 96%  
357 1.1% 95%  
358 1.1% 94%  
359 1.0% 93%  
360 0.9% 92%  
361 0.5% 91%  
362 0.9% 91%  
363 1.5% 90%  
364 2% 88%  
365 3% 86%  
366 3% 84%  
367 4% 80%  
368 3% 76%  
369 3% 73%  
370 3% 69%  
371 3% 66%  
372 2% 64%  
373 2% 62%  
374 2% 60%  
375 2% 58%  
376 5% 56% Median
377 5% 51%  
378 4% 46%  
379 5% 43%  
380 6% 38%  
381 4% 32%  
382 3% 28%  
383 2% 26%  
384 2% 24%  
385 1.2% 22%  
386 1.5% 21%  
387 2% 19%  
388 2% 18%  
389 2% 15%  
390 3% 13%  
391 2% 11%  
392 2% 9%  
393 1.5% 7%  
394 1.0% 5%  
395 0.4% 4%  
396 0.4% 4%  
397 0.5% 4%  
398 0.3% 3%  
399 0.4% 3%  
400 0.3% 2%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.4% 1.2%  
404 0.2% 0.9%  
405 0.2% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.5%  
319 0.2% 99.3%  
320 0.2% 99.2%  
321 0.3% 99.0%  
322 0.3% 98.7%  
323 0.4% 98%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 0.6% 97%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 0.5% 96%  
328 1.0% 95%  
329 0.8% 94%  
330 1.2% 94%  
331 1.4% 92%  
332 2% 91%  
333 2% 89%  
334 2% 87%  
335 2% 85%  
336 2% 83%  
337 3% 81%  
338 2% 78%  
339 3% 77%  
340 3% 74% Last Result
341 3% 71%  
342 4% 68%  
343 3% 64%  
344 4% 61%  
345 3% 57%  
346 3% 54%  
347 3% 51% Median
348 3% 48%  
349 4% 45%  
350 4% 41%  
351 3% 37%  
352 3% 34%  
353 3% 30%  
354 2% 28%  
355 2% 25% Majority
356 3% 23%  
357 2% 20%  
358 2% 18%  
359 2% 16%  
360 1.4% 14%  
361 2% 12%  
362 1.3% 10%  
363 1.3% 9%  
364 1.1% 7%  
365 0.9% 6%  
366 0.9% 5%  
367 0.9% 5%  
368 0.7% 4%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.4% 2%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.4%  
374 0.2% 1.1%  
375 0.1% 0.9%  
376 0.1% 0.7%  
377 0.1% 0.6%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0.2% 99.3%  
291 0.2% 99.1%  
292 0.3% 98.9%  
293 0.4% 98.6%  
294 0.4% 98%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 0.5% 97%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 0.7% 96%  
299 0.8% 95%  
300 0.9% 95%  
301 1.5% 94%  
302 1.3% 92%  
303 2% 91%  
304 2% 89%  
305 2% 88%  
306 3% 86%  
307 2% 83%  
308 2% 81%  
309 3% 79%  
310 3% 76%  
311 4% 74%  
312 3% 70%  
313 3% 68%  
314 4% 65%  
315 4% 61%  
316 3% 58%  
317 4% 55%  
318 3% 51% Median
319 4% 48%  
320 3% 44%  
321 3% 41%  
322 4% 38%  
323 3% 34%  
324 2% 31%  
325 2% 28%  
326 3% 26% Last Result
327 3% 23%  
328 2% 20%  
329 2% 18%  
330 2% 15%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 12%  
333 2% 10%  
334 1.3% 8%  
335 1.0% 7%  
336 1.4% 6%  
337 0.5% 5%  
338 1.0% 4%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.4% 3%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.5%  
344 0.3% 1.2%  
345 0.2% 0.9%  
346 0.2% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.6%  
281 0.2% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.3%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0.2% 99.1%  
285 0.2% 98.9%  
286 0.3% 98.6%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.8% 97% Last Result
290 0.8% 97%  
291 0.7% 96%  
292 1.3% 95%  
293 0.9% 94%  
294 1.1% 93%  
295 1.1% 92%  
296 1.0% 91%  
297 0.9% 90%  
298 2% 89%  
299 3% 87%  
300 2% 84%  
301 5% 82%  
302 6% 77%  
303 3% 71%  
304 3% 68%  
305 4% 65%  
306 2% 61%  
307 2% 59%  
308 3% 56%  
309 3% 53% Median
310 3% 51%  
311 3% 48%  
312 3% 45%  
313 3% 42%  
314 3% 40%  
315 4% 37%  
316 3% 33%  
317 3% 30%  
318 3% 26%  
319 2% 24%  
320 2% 22%  
321 1.5% 20%  
322 2% 19%  
323 2% 16%  
324 2% 14%  
325 3% 12%  
326 2% 9%  
327 1.0% 6%  
328 1.3% 5%  
329 0.6% 4%  
330 0.5% 4%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.4% 3%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.1% 1.3%  
337 0.2% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.2% 99.3%  
268 0.2% 99.2%  
269 0.3% 99.0%  
270 0.4% 98.7%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.5% 98%  
273 0.5% 98%  
274 0.6% 97%  
275 0.8% 96%  
276 0.9% 96%  
277 1.1% 95%  
278 1.1% 94%  
279 1.2% 93%  
280 1.3% 91%  
281 2% 90%  
282 1.5% 89%  
283 2% 87%  
284 2% 85%  
285 2% 83%  
286 3% 81%  
287 3% 77%  
288 4% 75%  
289 3% 71%  
290 4% 68%  
291 3% 64%  
292 2% 61%  
293 4% 59%  
294 3% 55% Median
295 3% 52%  
296 4% 49%  
297 3% 44%  
298 4% 42%  
299 3% 38%  
300 2% 35% Last Result
301 3% 33%  
302 2% 30%  
303 3% 27%  
304 2% 24%  
305 3% 22%  
306 2% 20%  
307 2% 17%  
308 2% 15%  
309 2% 13%  
310 2% 11%  
311 1.1% 9%  
312 1.1% 8%  
313 1.2% 7%  
314 1.0% 6%  
315 0.6% 5%  
316 0.8% 4%  
317 0.6% 3%  
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.3% 1.5%  
322 0.2% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.2% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0.2% 99.5%  
217 0.2% 99.4%  
218 0.2% 99.2%  
219 0.4% 98.9%  
220 0.5% 98.6% Last Result
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.8% 98%  
223 0.7% 97%  
224 1.1% 96%  
225 0.9% 95%  
226 1.1% 94%  
227 1.1% 93%  
228 1.0% 92%  
229 1.1% 91%  
230 1.2% 90%  
231 2% 89%  
232 2% 87%  
233 3% 85%  
234 3% 82%  
235 4% 79%  
236 4% 75%  
237 3% 72%  
238 3% 68%  
239 4% 65%  
240 5% 61%  
241 4% 57%  
242 4% 53% Median
243 4% 49%  
244 3% 46%  
245 3% 42%  
246 3% 40%  
247 3% 37%  
248 3% 34%  
249 3% 31%  
250 2% 28%  
251 3% 26%  
252 2% 23%  
253 2% 21%  
254 2% 19%  
255 2% 17%  
256 2% 15%  
257 2% 13%  
258 2% 11%  
259 1.3% 9%  
260 2% 7%  
261 0.9% 5%  
262 0.7% 4%  
263 0.6% 4%  
264 0.4% 3%  
265 0.4% 3%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0.3% 2%  
268 0.2% 2%  
269 0.3% 1.3%  
270 0.2% 1.0%  
271 0.2% 0.9%  
272 0.1% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.6%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.2% 99.5%  
175 0.2% 99.4%  
176 0.3% 99.2%  
177 0.3% 98.9%  
178 0.4% 98.7%  
179 0.4% 98%  
180 0.6% 98%  
181 0.7% 97%  
182 0.9% 97%  
183 0.8% 96%  
184 1.2% 95%  
185 2% 94%  
186 2% 92%  
187 2% 90%  
188 2% 88%  
189 3% 86%  
190 3% 83%  
191 3% 81%  
192 3% 78%  
193 3% 75%  
194 4% 72%  
195 3% 67%  
196 4% 64%  
197 3% 61%  
198 4% 58%  
199 4% 54% Median
200 5% 50%  
201 3% 46%  
202 3% 43%  
203 3% 39%  
204 4% 36%  
205 4% 33%  
206 3% 29%  
207 3% 26%  
208 3% 23%  
209 3% 20%  
210 2% 17%  
211 2% 15%  
212 2% 13%  
213 2% 11%  
214 2% 9%  
215 1.4% 7%  
216 0.7% 6%  
217 1.1% 5%  
218 0.9% 4%  
219 0.7% 3%  
220 0.5% 3%  
221 0.4% 2%  
222 0.4% 2% Last Result
223 0.3% 1.4%  
224 0.2% 1.1%  
225 0.1% 0.9%  
226 0.2% 0.7%  
227 0.1% 0.5%  
228 0.1% 0.4%  
229 0.1% 0.3%  
230 0.1% 0.3%  
231 0.1% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.7%  
154 0% 99.7%  
155 0% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.6%  
157 0.1% 99.6%  
158 0.1% 99.5%  
159 0.1% 99.4%  
160 0.1% 99.3%  
161 0.2% 99.2%  
162 0.2% 99.0%  
163 0.3% 98.8%  
164 0.5% 98.5%  
165 0.5% 98%  
166 0.5% 98%  
167 0.9% 97%  
168 1.1% 96%  
169 1.0% 95%  
170 2% 94%  
171 1.4% 92%  
172 2% 91%  
173 3% 89%  
174 2% 86%  
175 3% 84%  
176 4% 81%  
177 3% 78%  
178 3% 75%  
179 3% 72%  
180 3% 69%  
181 3% 66%  
182 4% 63%  
183 3% 60%  
184 4% 57% Median
185 4% 53%  
186 4% 49%  
187 5% 46%  
188 5% 41%  
189 3% 36%  
190 5% 33%  
191 4% 28%  
192 4% 25%  
193 3% 21%  
194 2% 18%  
195 3% 16%  
196 2% 13%  
197 2% 11%  
198 1.5% 9%  
199 1.2% 8%  
200 0.9% 7%  
201 0.8% 6%  
202 1.2% 5%  
203 0.6% 4%  
204 0.6% 3%  
205 0.5% 3%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.5% 2%  
208 0.3% 1.4%  
209 0.3% 1.1%  
210 0.2% 0.8%  
211 0.2% 0.6%  
212 0.1% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations