Opinion Poll by Kantar, 6–12 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.9–30.6% 27.6–31.0% 27.2–31.3% 26.6–32.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.5% 16.3–19.8% 15.8–20.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.5% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 208–228 205–232 203–234 198–241
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 134 126–143 124–145 122–148 118–153
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 119 111–128 110–130 107–133 104–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 72–93 69–97
Die Linke 69 60 54–67 53–68 51–69 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 45–56 44–58 42–60 40–62
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–50 39–52 0–54 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.1% 99.6%  
199 0.2% 99.5%  
200 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
201 0.5% 99.0%  
202 0.9% 98.6%  
203 1.0% 98%  
204 1.1% 97%  
205 1.1% 96%  
206 1.1% 94%  
207 1.3% 93%  
208 2% 92%  
209 3% 90%  
210 4% 87%  
211 4% 82%  
212 4% 78%  
213 3% 74%  
214 3% 72%  
215 4% 68%  
216 5% 64%  
217 8% 60%  
218 7% 52% Median
219 5% 45%  
220 3% 39%  
221 4% 37%  
222 3% 33%  
223 4% 30%  
224 5% 26%  
225 4% 20%  
226 4% 17%  
227 2% 13%  
228 1.3% 11%  
229 1.5% 10%  
230 1.5% 8%  
231 1.3% 7%  
232 2% 5%  
233 0.8% 4%  
234 0.7% 3%  
235 0.3% 2%  
236 0.3% 2%  
237 0.3% 2%  
238 0.4% 1.4%  
239 0.3% 1.0%  
240 0.1% 0.7%  
241 0.1% 0.6%  
242 0% 0.4%  
243 0% 0.4%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.3% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.3%  
120 0.6% 98.9%  
121 0.8% 98%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 2% 97%  
124 2% 95%  
125 2% 93%  
126 3% 92%  
127 4% 89%  
128 4% 84%  
129 5% 80%  
130 4% 76%  
131 5% 71%  
132 6% 66%  
133 7% 60%  
134 5% 53% Median
135 6% 49%  
136 7% 43%  
137 5% 36%  
138 5% 31%  
139 4% 25%  
140 3% 22%  
141 4% 18%  
142 4% 14%  
143 3% 11%  
144 1.4% 8%  
145 2% 7%  
146 1.4% 5%  
147 0.8% 3%  
148 0.7% 3%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.4% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.1%  
152 0.2% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.4%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.3% 99.4%  
106 0.8% 99.1%  
107 1.2% 98%  
108 0.9% 97%  
109 1.0% 96%  
110 2% 95%  
111 3% 93%  
112 2% 90%  
113 3% 87%  
114 5% 84%  
115 5% 79%  
116 4% 74%  
117 7% 70%  
118 8% 63%  
119 6% 55% Median
120 6% 49%  
121 8% 43%  
122 7% 36%  
123 4% 29%  
124 3% 24%  
125 4% 21%  
126 4% 17%  
127 2% 13%  
128 2% 11%  
129 2% 8%  
130 2% 6%  
131 0.8% 5%  
132 1.1% 4%  
133 0.9% 3%  
134 0.7% 2%  
135 0.2% 1.1%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.5% 99.3%  
71 0.8% 98.9%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 5% 90%  
77 5% 86%  
78 5% 81%  
79 6% 76%  
80 7% 70%  
81 9% 63%  
82 7% 54% Median
83 7% 47%  
84 7% 40%  
85 6% 33%  
86 6% 27%  
87 5% 22%  
88 4% 16%  
89 3% 13%  
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 0.7% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.5%  
96 0.3% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.5%  
50 0.6% 99.1%  
51 1.1% 98.5%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 6% 92%  
55 6% 87%  
56 6% 81%  
57 6% 75%  
58 8% 69%  
59 8% 61%  
60 8% 53% Median
61 10% 44%  
62 7% 34%  
63 6% 27%  
64 4% 21%  
65 3% 17%  
66 4% 14%  
67 4% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 4% Last Result
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.3%  
72 0.3% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.8% 99.4%  
42 1.4% 98.6%  
43 1.4% 97%  
44 3% 96%  
45 5% 93%  
46 5% 88% Last Result
47 5% 83%  
48 10% 78%  
49 10% 68%  
50 9% 58% Median
51 7% 49%  
52 9% 42%  
53 8% 33%  
54 7% 25%  
55 5% 18%  
56 4% 13%  
57 3% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 1.0% 3%  
61 0.7% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0.5% 97%  
38 2% 97%  
39 4% 95%  
40 3% 91%  
41 8% 88%  
42 6% 80%  
43 9% 74%  
44 6% 65%  
45 11% 58% Median
46 10% 48%  
47 9% 37%  
48 7% 28%  
49 6% 21%  
50 6% 15%  
51 3% 9%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.1% 4%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 1.1%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 522 100% 512–532 510–536 507–548 503–564
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 448 100% 436–458 433–461 429–463 421–468
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 433 100% 422–443 418–446 415–449 406–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 403 100% 392–414 389–418 386–423 381–437
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 396 100% 384–406 380–409 376–412 367–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 387 100% 377–399 374–404 371–409 366–422
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 34% 340–362 336–366 334–370 329–382
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 313 0% 303–325 300–329 297–333 292–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 302–324 298–327 292–330 279–335
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 298 0% 287–309 283–313 277–315 263–320
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 253 0% 244–265 241–268 238–272 233–279
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 194 0% 185–204 182–207 180–210 175–216
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 179 0% 169–189 165–192 152–194 137–198

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.8%  
502 0.2% 99.7%  
503 0.2% 99.5%  
504 0.2% 99.3%  
505 0.3% 99.1%  
506 0.8% 98.8%  
507 0.7% 98%  
508 1.1% 97%  
509 1.0% 96%  
510 1.1% 95%  
511 2% 94%  
512 3% 92%  
513 3% 89%  
514 3% 87%  
515 2% 84%  
516 3% 81%  
517 6% 78%  
518 4% 72%  
519 5% 68%  
520 5% 63%  
521 5% 57% Median
522 5% 52%  
523 6% 47%  
524 6% 42%  
525 4% 36%  
526 5% 32%  
527 4% 27%  
528 4% 23%  
529 5% 20%  
530 2% 15%  
531 2% 13%  
532 2% 11%  
533 1.3% 9%  
534 2% 8%  
535 0.8% 6%  
536 0.7% 5%  
537 0.6% 5%  
538 0.3% 4%  
539 0.3% 4%  
540 0.2% 3%  
541 0.2% 3%  
542 0.1% 3%  
543 0% 3%  
544 0.1% 3%  
545 0.1% 3%  
546 0% 3%  
547 0% 3%  
548 0.1% 3%  
549 0.1% 2%  
550 0% 2%  
551 0.1% 2%  
552 0.3% 2%  
553 0.1% 2%  
554 0% 2%  
555 0.3% 2%  
556 0.1% 2%  
557 0.1% 1.5%  
558 0.3% 1.4%  
559 0.2% 1.1%  
560 0% 0.8%  
561 0.1% 0.8%  
562 0.1% 0.7%  
563 0% 0.6%  
564 0.1% 0.5%  
565 0.2% 0.4%  
566 0% 0.2%  
567 0% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0% 99.6%  
421 0.2% 99.6%  
422 0.1% 99.4%  
423 0.2% 99.3%  
424 0.1% 99.1%  
425 0.3% 99.0%  
426 0.2% 98.8%  
427 0.2% 98.5%  
428 0.3% 98%  
429 0.5% 98%  
430 0.6% 97%  
431 0.6% 97%  
432 0.8% 96%  
433 0.9% 95%  
434 1.3% 94%  
435 1.4% 93%  
436 2% 92%  
437 2% 90%  
438 2% 88%  
439 3% 86%  
440 3% 83%  
441 3% 80%  
442 4% 76%  
443 3% 72%  
444 4% 69%  
445 6% 65%  
446 4% 59%  
447 4% 55% Median
448 7% 51%  
449 4% 44%  
450 4% 41%  
451 5% 36%  
452 4% 31%  
453 3% 27%  
454 5% 24%  
455 3% 19%  
456 3% 16%  
457 3% 13%  
458 2% 11%  
459 2% 8%  
460 2% 7%  
461 1.4% 5%  
462 1.0% 4%  
463 0.7% 3%  
464 0.5% 2%  
465 0.5% 2%  
466 0.3% 1.2%  
467 0.3% 0.9%  
468 0.2% 0.6%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.7%  
404 0% 99.7%  
405 0% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.6%  
407 0.1% 99.5%  
408 0.1% 99.4%  
409 0.2% 99.2%  
410 0.4% 99.0%  
411 0.2% 98.7%  
412 0.2% 98.5%  
413 0.4% 98%  
414 0.4% 98%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.8% 97%  
417 1.2% 96%  
418 0.6% 95%  
419 1.1% 95%  
420 2% 93%  
421 2% 92%  
422 1.5% 90%  
423 3% 89%  
424 3% 86%  
425 2% 83%  
426 4% 81%  
427 4% 77%  
428 3% 73%  
429 6% 71%  
430 5% 65%  
431 4% 60%  
432 3% 56% Median
433 8% 53%  
434 3% 45%  
435 4% 42%  
436 4% 37%  
437 5% 33%  
438 3% 27%  
439 4% 25%  
440 4% 20%  
441 2% 16%  
442 3% 14%  
443 2% 12%  
444 2% 9%  
445 1.0% 7%  
446 2% 6%  
447 1.1% 4%  
448 0.4% 3%  
449 0.8% 3%  
450 0.6% 2%  
451 0.3% 1.4%  
452 0.2% 1.0%  
453 0.4% 0.9%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.6%  
382 0.2% 99.5%  
383 0.3% 99.2%  
384 0.4% 98.9%  
385 0.7% 98.5%  
386 0.5% 98%  
387 0.8% 97%  
388 0.8% 97%  
389 2% 96%  
390 1.5% 94%  
391 2% 93%  
392 2% 90%  
393 3% 88%  
394 2% 86%  
395 3% 83%  
396 3% 80%  
397 3% 77%  
398 5% 74%  
399 4% 69% Last Result
400 5% 65%  
401 5% 60%  
402 5% 55% Median
403 4% 50%  
404 5% 46%  
405 5% 41%  
406 3% 36%  
407 5% 33%  
408 3% 28%  
409 4% 25%  
410 3% 21%  
411 3% 19%  
412 3% 15%  
413 2% 13%  
414 2% 11%  
415 1.3% 9%  
416 1.2% 8%  
417 0.8% 7%  
418 1.0% 6%  
419 0.7% 5%  
420 0.5% 4%  
421 0.5% 4%  
422 0.3% 3%  
423 0.3% 3%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.3% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.1% 2%  
428 0.1% 2%  
429 0.3% 2%  
430 0.1% 1.3%  
431 0.1% 1.2%  
432 0.1% 1.1%  
433 0.2% 1.0%  
434 0.1% 0.8%  
435 0% 0.7%  
436 0.2% 0.7%  
437 0.1% 0.5%  
438 0% 0.4%  
439 0% 0.4%  
440 0% 0.3%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0% 99.7%  
364 0% 99.7%  
365 0.1% 99.6%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.1% 99.5%  
368 0.1% 99.4%  
369 0.1% 99.3%  
370 0.2% 99.2%  
371 0.1% 98.9%  
372 0.1% 98.8%  
373 0.3% 98.7%  
374 0.3% 98%  
375 0.4% 98%  
376 0.4% 98%  
377 0.6% 97%  
378 0.7% 97%  
379 0.6% 96%  
380 1.0% 95%  
381 0.9% 95%  
382 1.0% 94%  
383 2% 93%  
384 2% 91%  
385 2% 89%  
386 3% 87%  
387 3% 85%  
388 2% 82%  
389 4% 80%  
390 3% 76%  
391 3% 72%  
392 4% 69%  
393 6% 65%  
394 4% 59%  
395 5% 55% Median
396 5% 51%  
397 5% 46%  
398 4% 41%  
399 5% 37%  
400 5% 33%  
401 3% 28%  
402 5% 25%  
403 4% 20%  
404 2% 16%  
405 3% 14%  
406 2% 11%  
407 2% 9%  
408 1.3% 7%  
409 1.3% 6%  
410 1.1% 5%  
411 0.9% 3%  
412 0.5% 3%  
413 0.6% 2%  
414 0.4% 1.5%  
415 0.3% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.8%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.2% 99.5%  
368 0.3% 99.3%  
369 0.5% 99.0%  
370 0.5% 98.6%  
371 0.6% 98%  
372 0.5% 97%  
373 0.9% 97%  
374 2% 96%  
375 2% 94%  
376 1.4% 93%  
377 2% 91%  
378 2% 90%  
379 2% 87%  
380 4% 85%  
381 5% 81%  
382 3% 77%  
383 3% 73%  
384 4% 71%  
385 5% 67%  
386 5% 61%  
387 6% 56% Median
388 4% 50%  
389 3% 46%  
390 5% 43%  
391 4% 38%  
392 6% 34%  
393 4% 28%  
394 3% 24%  
395 2% 21%  
396 3% 19%  
397 3% 16%  
398 2% 13%  
399 2% 11%  
400 1.5% 9%  
401 1.0% 8%  
402 0.8% 7%  
403 0.9% 6%  
404 0.7% 5%  
405 0.6% 4%  
406 0.5% 4%  
407 0.4% 3%  
408 0.3% 3%  
409 0.2% 3%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.1% 2%  
413 0.1% 2%  
414 0.1% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.1% 1.3%  
417 0.3% 1.1%  
418 0.1% 0.8%  
419 0% 0.7%  
420 0.1% 0.7%  
421 0.1% 0.6%  
422 0.1% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.5%  
424 0.2% 0.4%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.2% 99.2%  
332 0.5% 98.9%  
333 0.7% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 1.1% 97%  
336 1.1% 96%  
337 0.9% 95%  
338 2% 94%  
339 1.5% 92%  
340 2% 91% Last Result
341 3% 89%  
342 2% 86%  
343 3% 84%  
344 4% 81%  
345 3% 77%  
346 5% 74%  
347 4% 69%  
348 5% 64%  
349 5% 60%  
350 4% 54% Median
351 4% 51%  
352 4% 46%  
353 4% 42%  
354 4% 38%  
355 5% 34% Majority
356 3% 29%  
357 3% 25%  
358 4% 22%  
359 3% 18%  
360 3% 15%  
361 2% 12%  
362 1.4% 11%  
363 1.4% 9%  
364 1.3% 8%  
365 0.9% 7%  
366 0.8% 6%  
367 0.9% 5%  
368 0.6% 4%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.5% 3%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.1% 1.2%  
377 0.1% 1.1%  
378 0.2% 1.0%  
379 0.1% 0.8%  
380 0.1% 0.7%  
381 0.1% 0.6%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.4%  
294 0.3% 99.2%  
295 0.4% 99.0%  
296 0.6% 98.5%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.9% 97%  
299 1.1% 97%  
300 1.3% 95%  
301 1.3% 94%  
302 2% 93%  
303 2% 91%  
304 3% 89%  
305 2% 86%  
306 4% 84%  
307 5% 80%  
308 3% 75%  
309 5% 72%  
310 5% 67%  
311 4% 63%  
312 5% 59%  
313 5% 54% Median
314 5% 49%  
315 4% 45%  
316 6% 41%  
317 4% 35%  
318 3% 31%  
319 3% 28%  
320 4% 24%  
321 2% 20%  
322 3% 18%  
323 3% 15%  
324 2% 13%  
325 2% 11%  
326 2% 9%  
327 1.0% 7%  
328 0.9% 6%  
329 1.0% 5%  
330 0.6% 5%  
331 0.7% 4%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.3%  
338 0.1% 1.2%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.4%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0.1% 99.4%  
281 0.1% 99.3%  
282 0.1% 99.2%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.1% 98.9%  
285 0.1% 98.8%  
286 0.1% 98.7%  
287 0.2% 98.6%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.4% 97%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 0.7% 96%  
297 0.2% 96%  
298 1.2% 95%  
299 0.7% 94%  
300 2% 94%  
301 0.8% 92%  
302 2% 91%  
303 1.4% 89%  
304 3% 87%  
305 1.3% 84%  
306 4% 83%  
307 3% 79%  
308 4% 76%  
309 3% 71%  
310 5% 68%  
311 4% 63%  
312 6% 60%  
313 5% 53% Median
314 3% 48%  
315 4% 45%  
316 5% 40%  
317 4% 36%  
318 4% 32%  
319 5% 28%  
320 3% 23%  
321 4% 20%  
322 2% 16%  
323 3% 14%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 9%  
326 2% 8% Last Result
327 1.4% 6%  
328 1.0% 5%  
329 1.1% 4%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.4%  
333 0.3% 1.1%  
334 0.2% 0.8%  
335 0.2% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.4%  
266 0.1% 99.3%  
267 0.1% 99.2%  
268 0.1% 99.0%  
269 0.1% 98.9%  
270 0.2% 98.8%  
271 0.1% 98.6%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.2% 97%  
279 0.3% 97%  
280 0.4% 97%  
281 0.6% 97%  
282 0.7% 96%  
283 0.9% 95%  
284 0.8% 94%  
285 1.0% 94%  
286 1.3% 92%  
287 1.3% 91%  
288 2% 90%  
289 3% 88%  
290 2% 85%  
291 3% 83%  
292 4% 81%  
293 4% 77%  
294 4% 72%  
295 5% 68%  
296 5% 63%  
297 4% 58%  
298 5% 54% Median
299 4% 49%  
300 4% 45% Last Result
301 4% 41%  
302 5% 37%  
303 4% 32%  
304 6% 28%  
305 3% 22%  
306 4% 19%  
307 2% 16%  
308 2% 14%  
309 1.5% 11%  
310 2% 10%  
311 2% 8%  
312 1.1% 6%  
313 2% 5%  
314 0.9% 4%  
315 0.8% 3%  
316 0.6% 2%  
317 0.4% 1.5%  
318 0.3% 1.1%  
319 0.2% 0.8%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.4%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.2% 99.6%  
234 0.3% 99.4%  
235 0.3% 99.1%  
236 0.3% 98.8%  
237 0.5% 98%  
238 0.7% 98%  
239 0.9% 97%  
240 1.0% 96%  
241 1.3% 95%  
242 2% 94%  
243 2% 92%  
244 2% 90%  
245 3% 88%  
246 5% 85%  
247 3% 81%  
248 5% 78%  
249 4% 73%  
250 4% 69%  
251 5% 65%  
252 5% 59%  
253 5% 54% Median
254 5% 50%  
255 5% 45%  
256 4% 40%  
257 5% 36%  
258 3% 31%  
259 4% 28%  
260 3% 24%  
261 4% 21%  
262 2% 17%  
263 2% 15%  
264 2% 13%  
265 2% 10%  
266 2% 8%  
267 1.1% 7%  
268 1.0% 6%  
269 0.9% 5%  
270 0.8% 4%  
271 0.5% 3%  
272 0.6% 3%  
273 0.4% 2%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0.2% 1.2%  
276 0.2% 1.0%  
277 0.1% 0.8%  
278 0.1% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.5%  
280 0.1% 0.5%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.2% 99.6%  
176 0.2% 99.4%  
177 0.5% 99.2%  
178 0.5% 98.7%  
179 0.7% 98%  
180 1.0% 98%  
181 0.9% 97%  
182 2% 96%  
183 2% 94%  
184 2% 92%  
185 2% 90%  
186 3% 88%  
187 3% 84%  
188 4% 81%  
189 5% 77%  
190 5% 72%  
191 5% 68%  
192 4% 63%  
193 5% 59%  
194 5% 53% Median
195 6% 48%  
196 5% 42%  
197 5% 37%  
198 5% 33%  
199 4% 28%  
200 4% 24%  
201 3% 20%  
202 3% 17%  
203 3% 14%  
204 2% 11%  
205 2% 9%  
206 2% 8%  
207 1.3% 6%  
208 1.0% 5%  
209 0.8% 4%  
210 0.6% 3%  
211 0.4% 2%  
212 0.5% 2%  
213 0.3% 1.4%  
214 0.4% 1.1%  
215 0.1% 0.7%  
216 0.2% 0.6%  
217 0% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.7%  
136 0.1% 99.7%  
137 0.2% 99.6%  
138 0.1% 99.4%  
139 0.1% 99.3%  
140 0.1% 99.2%  
141 0.3% 99.1%  
142 0.3% 98.8%  
143 0.2% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 0.1% 98%  
146 0.2% 98%  
147 0.2% 98%  
148 0.1% 98%  
149 0.1% 98%  
150 0.1% 98%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0% 98%  
153 0% 97%  
154 0.1% 97%  
155 0% 97%  
156 0% 97%  
157 0.1% 97%  
158 0.1% 97%  
159 0.1% 97%  
160 0.1% 97%  
161 0.2% 97%  
162 0.3% 97%  
163 0.4% 97%  
164 0.5% 96%  
165 0.7% 96%  
166 0.6% 95%  
167 2% 94%  
168 1.5% 93%  
169 2% 91%  
170 2% 89%  
171 2% 88%  
172 3% 86%  
173 4% 82%  
174 5% 78%  
175 3% 73%  
176 4% 69%  
177 6% 65%  
178 7% 60%  
179 5% 53% Median
180 4% 47%  
181 4% 43%  
182 5% 39%  
183 7% 34%  
184 4% 27%  
185 3% 23%  
186 3% 19%  
187 4% 16%  
188 3% 13%  
189 2% 10%  
190 2% 8%  
191 1.3% 6%  
192 1.4% 5%  
193 0.9% 4%  
194 1.1% 3%  
195 0.5% 2%  
196 0.3% 1.3%  
197 0.2% 1.0%  
198 0.2% 0.7%  
199 0.2% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations