Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 14–17 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.6% 26.1–29.9% 25.5–30.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.7–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 208 199–217 196–220 194–223 189–228
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 134 126–142 123–144 122–146 118–151
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 119 111–127 109–129 108–131 104–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–88 74–91 72–92 69–96
Die Linke 69 59 54–65 53–67 51–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 63 57–69 56–70 54–72 52–75
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–50 38–51 38–53 0–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.8%  
189 0.2% 99.7%  
190 0.2% 99.5%  
191 0.4% 99.3%  
192 0.5% 98.9%  
193 0.5% 98%  
194 1.0% 98%  
195 1.2% 97%  
196 2% 96%  
197 1.3% 94%  
198 3% 93%  
199 3% 90%  
200 3% 87% Last Result
201 4% 85%  
202 4% 81%  
203 5% 77%  
204 4% 71%  
205 5% 67%  
206 5% 62%  
207 6% 57%  
208 5% 51% Median
209 5% 46%  
210 5% 41%  
211 6% 36%  
212 5% 31%  
213 3% 25%  
214 3% 22%  
215 4% 19%  
216 4% 16%  
217 2% 12%  
218 2% 10%  
219 2% 8%  
220 1.2% 6%  
221 1.1% 4%  
222 0.6% 3%  
223 0.6% 3%  
224 0.5% 2%  
225 0.4% 1.5%  
226 0.2% 1.1%  
227 0.2% 0.9%  
228 0.2% 0.7%  
229 0.1% 0.5%  
230 0.1% 0.4%  
231 0.1% 0.3%  
232 0.1% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0.3% 99.4%  
120 0.5% 99.1%  
121 0.8% 98.6%  
122 2% 98%  
123 1.4% 96%  
124 2% 95%  
125 2% 93%  
126 3% 91%  
127 4% 88%  
128 4% 84%  
129 6% 80%  
130 4% 74%  
131 5% 70%  
132 6% 64%  
133 6% 59%  
134 9% 53% Median
135 5% 43%  
136 6% 38%  
137 5% 32%  
138 4% 27%  
139 5% 22%  
140 4% 17%  
141 3% 13%  
142 2% 10%  
143 2% 8%  
144 1.4% 6%  
145 1.3% 5%  
146 1.4% 4%  
147 0.7% 2%  
148 0.5% 2%  
149 0.4% 1.1%  
150 0.2% 0.7%  
151 0.2% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.3%  
106 0.6% 99.0%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 1.5% 98%  
109 2% 96%  
110 2% 95%  
111 3% 92%  
112 4% 89%  
113 5% 86%  
114 4% 81%  
115 6% 77%  
116 6% 71%  
117 7% 66%  
118 7% 59%  
119 7% 52% Median
120 7% 45%  
121 5% 38%  
122 7% 34%  
123 4% 26%  
124 5% 22%  
125 3% 17%  
126 3% 14%  
127 3% 11%  
128 2% 8%  
129 2% 6%  
130 1.1% 4%  
131 1.2% 3%  
132 0.6% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.4%  
134 0.3% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 0.8% 99.0%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 4% 90%  
77 6% 85%  
78 6% 79%  
79 7% 74%  
80 8% 67%  
81 6% 59%  
82 8% 52% Median
83 7% 44%  
84 7% 37%  
85 7% 30%  
86 6% 23%  
87 4% 17%  
88 4% 13%  
89 3% 9%  
90 1.5% 6%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.3% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 0.6% 99.2%  
51 1.3% 98.6%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 4% 92%  
55 6% 88%  
56 7% 82%  
57 9% 76%  
58 9% 67%  
59 8% 58% Median
60 8% 50%  
61 10% 42%  
62 7% 32%  
63 6% 25%  
64 5% 19%  
65 4% 14%  
66 4% 10%  
67 2% 6%  
68 1.4% 4%  
69 1.0% 3% Last Result
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.9%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.6%  
53 0.9% 99.2%  
54 1.2% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 4% 95%  
57 4% 92%  
58 6% 88%  
59 6% 82%  
60 8% 76%  
61 9% 68%  
62 9% 59%  
63 9% 51% Median
64 8% 41%  
65 7% 33%  
66 6% 26%  
67 8% 21%  
68 3% 13%  
69 4% 10%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 1.2% 3%  
73 0.6% 1.5%  
74 0.4% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 0% 98.8%  
5 0% 98.8%  
6 0% 98.8%  
7 0% 98.8%  
8 0% 98.8%  
9 0% 98.8%  
10 0% 98.8%  
11 0% 98.8%  
12 0% 98.8%  
13 0% 98.8%  
14 0% 98.8%  
15 0% 98.8%  
16 0% 98.8%  
17 0% 98.8%  
18 0% 98.8%  
19 0% 98.8%  
20 0% 98.8%  
21 0% 98.8%  
22 0% 98.8%  
23 0% 98.8%  
24 0% 98.8%  
25 0% 98.8%  
26 0% 98.8%  
27 0% 98.8%  
28 0% 98.8%  
29 0% 98.8%  
30 0% 98.8%  
31 0% 98.8%  
32 0% 98.8%  
33 0% 98.8%  
34 0% 98.8%  
35 0% 98.8%  
36 0% 98.8%  
37 0.3% 98.8%  
38 4% 98%  
39 4% 94%  
40 1.4% 90%  
41 5% 89%  
42 15% 83%  
43 9% 68%  
44 3% 59%  
45 12% 57% Median
46 17% 44%  
47 5% 27%  
48 3% 23%  
49 7% 20%  
50 7% 13%  
51 0.9% 5%  
52 0.9% 5%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.7% 1.3%  
55 0.1% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 523 100% 514–532 511–535 509–538 505–560
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 448 100% 439–458 437–459 431–465 426–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 434 100% 423–444 421–446 418–448 410–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 404 100% 394–414 391–418 389–421 384–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 397 100% 386–407 383–410 380–412 372–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 390 100% 379–400 376–403 374–405 369–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 352 41% 342–363 339–366 337–369 332–379
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 315 0% 305–325 301–328 298–330 286–336
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 312 0% 302–323 299–326 297–329 292–337
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 297 0% 287–308 284–310 281–312 267–317
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 253 0% 243–262 240–266 238–268 233–275
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 193 0% 184–202 182–206 179–207 175–213
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 178 0% 169–187 167–190 164–192 141–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.8%  
504 0.2% 99.7%  
505 0.2% 99.5%  
506 0.3% 99.3%  
507 0.5% 98.9%  
508 0.6% 98%  
509 1.0% 98%  
510 0.8% 97%  
511 2% 96%  
512 2% 94%  
513 2% 93%  
514 3% 90%  
515 3% 88%  
516 3% 85%  
517 4% 82%  
518 4% 78%  
519 4% 74%  
520 6% 70%  
521 4% 64%  
522 7% 60%  
523 6% 53%  
524 7% 47% Median
525 5% 40%  
526 4% 35%  
527 4% 31%  
528 5% 27%  
529 4% 22%  
530 4% 18%  
531 3% 14%  
532 3% 12%  
533 2% 9%  
534 1.4% 7%  
535 1.5% 6%  
536 1.0% 4%  
537 0.7% 3%  
538 0.4% 3%  
539 0.4% 2%  
540 0.2% 2%  
541 0.1% 2%  
542 0.1% 1.5%  
543 0.1% 1.4%  
544 0% 1.3%  
545 0.1% 1.2%  
546 0% 1.2%  
547 0% 1.1%  
548 0% 1.1%  
549 0.1% 1.1%  
550 0% 1.1%  
551 0% 1.0%  
552 0% 1.0%  
553 0.1% 1.0%  
554 0.1% 0.9%  
555 0% 0.8%  
556 0.1% 0.8%  
557 0% 0.7%  
558 0.1% 0.7%  
559 0.1% 0.6%  
560 0.1% 0.5%  
561 0% 0.4%  
562 0% 0.4%  
563 0.1% 0.4%  
564 0.1% 0.3%  
565 0% 0.3%  
566 0% 0.2%  
567 0% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0% 99.7%  
425 0.1% 99.6%  
426 0.1% 99.5%  
427 0.1% 99.5%  
428 0.1% 99.4%  
429 0.3% 99.2%  
430 0.8% 98.9%  
431 0.7% 98%  
432 0.5% 97%  
433 0.4% 97%  
434 0.1% 97%  
435 0.2% 96%  
436 0.5% 96%  
437 1.1% 96%  
438 4% 95%  
439 5% 91%  
440 5% 86%  
441 3% 81%  
442 1.2% 78%  
443 0.3% 76%  
444 0.3% 76%  
445 2% 76%  
446 5% 74%  
447 8% 69%  
448 13% 61%  
449 9% 47%  
450 5% 39% Median
451 1.3% 34%  
452 0.3% 33%  
453 0.6% 32%  
454 2% 32%  
455 4% 30%  
456 7% 25%  
457 8% 18%  
458 4% 10%  
459 1.2% 6%  
460 0.4% 5%  
461 0.1% 5%  
462 0.2% 4%  
463 0.5% 4%  
464 1.1% 4%  
465 1.2% 3%  
466 0.9% 2%  
467 0.3% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.3%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0.1% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.1% 99.6%  
411 0.1% 99.5%  
412 0.2% 99.4%  
413 0.2% 99.2%  
414 0.3% 99.0%  
415 0.2% 98.8%  
416 0.2% 98.6%  
417 0.5% 98%  
418 0.8% 98%  
419 0.7% 97%  
420 1.0% 96%  
421 2% 95%  
422 1.3% 93%  
423 2% 92%  
424 2% 90%  
425 2% 88%  
426 4% 86%  
427 2% 82%  
428 5% 80%  
429 3% 75%  
430 4% 72%  
431 4% 67%  
432 6% 64%  
433 5% 58%  
434 3% 53%  
435 5% 50% Median
436 6% 44%  
437 9% 39%  
438 3% 30%  
439 5% 26%  
440 3% 22%  
441 3% 19%  
442 2% 16%  
443 2% 14%  
444 3% 12%  
445 2% 9%  
446 3% 7%  
447 2% 5%  
448 1.0% 3%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.6% 2%  
451 0.3% 1.4%  
452 0.3% 1.0%  
453 0.2% 0.7%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.5%  
385 0.4% 99.4%  
386 0.5% 99.0%  
387 0.3% 98.5%  
388 0.4% 98%  
389 0.8% 98%  
390 2% 97%  
391 1.2% 95%  
392 0.7% 94%  
393 2% 93%  
394 4% 91%  
395 2% 87%  
396 2% 85%  
397 3% 84%  
398 6% 81%  
399 4% 75% Last Result
400 2% 71%  
401 5% 69%  
402 6% 64%  
403 7% 59%  
404 3% 52%  
405 4% 49% Median
406 7% 45%  
407 6% 37%  
408 2% 32%  
409 3% 30%  
410 5% 27%  
411 5% 22%  
412 0.9% 16%  
413 2% 16%  
414 4% 13%  
415 3% 10%  
416 1.0% 7%  
417 0.8% 6%  
418 1.2% 5%  
419 1.3% 4%  
420 0.3% 3%  
421 0.2% 3%  
422 0.4% 2%  
423 0.4% 2%  
424 0.1% 1.4%  
425 0.1% 1.3%  
426 0.2% 1.2%  
427 0.2% 1.0%  
428 0.1% 0.8%  
429 0% 0.7%  
430 0% 0.7%  
431 0% 0.7%  
432 0% 0.6%  
433 0% 0.6%  
434 0% 0.6%  
435 0.1% 0.6%  
436 0.1% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0.1% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.6%  
372 0.1% 99.5%  
373 0.1% 99.4%  
374 0.1% 99.4%  
375 0.2% 99.3%  
376 0.1% 99.1%  
377 0.3% 99.0%  
378 0.4% 98.7%  
379 0.4% 98%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 0.8% 97%  
382 0.8% 97%  
383 1.3% 96%  
384 1.3% 95%  
385 2% 93%  
386 1.4% 91%  
387 2% 90%  
388 3% 88%  
389 2% 85%  
390 3% 83%  
391 4% 80%  
392 4% 75%  
393 4% 72%  
394 7% 68%  
395 4% 61%  
396 4% 57%  
397 6% 53%  
398 5% 47% Median
399 6% 42%  
400 3% 37%  
401 5% 34%  
402 6% 29%  
403 4% 23%  
404 3% 19%  
405 3% 17%  
406 3% 13%  
407 2% 11%  
408 2% 9%  
409 2% 7%  
410 1.3% 5%  
411 0.8% 4%  
412 1.0% 3%  
413 0.6% 2%  
414 0.5% 2%  
415 0.3% 1.2%  
416 0.3% 0.9%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.3% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.3%  
371 0.3% 99.1%  
372 0.4% 98.8%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 0.7% 98%  
375 1.0% 97%  
376 1.2% 96%  
377 2% 95%  
378 2% 93%  
379 2% 91%  
380 3% 89%  
381 4% 86%  
382 3% 83%  
383 3% 80%  
384 3% 76%  
385 4% 73%  
386 4% 69%  
387 5% 65%  
388 5% 60%  
389 4% 55%  
390 8% 51% Median
391 5% 43%  
392 6% 38%  
393 3% 32%  
394 4% 29%  
395 4% 25%  
396 3% 21%  
397 3% 19%  
398 3% 16%  
399 2% 13%  
400 2% 11%  
401 1.1% 8%  
402 1.3% 7%  
403 2% 6%  
404 1.0% 4%  
405 0.7% 3%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.1% 1.2%  
411 0.1% 1.1%  
412 0.1% 1.0%  
413 0.1% 0.9%  
414 0.1% 0.8%  
415 0.1% 0.8%  
416 0% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.2% 99.6%  
333 0.2% 99.4%  
334 0.4% 99.1%  
335 0.7% 98.7%  
336 0.5% 98%  
337 0.7% 98%  
338 0.8% 97%  
339 1.4% 96%  
340 2% 95% Last Result
341 3% 93%  
342 2% 90%  
343 3% 88%  
344 3% 85%  
345 2% 83%  
346 3% 81%  
347 3% 78%  
348 7% 74%  
349 5% 67%  
350 4% 62%  
351 6% 58%  
352 3% 52%  
353 4% 49% Median
354 4% 45%  
355 4% 41% Majority
356 8% 37%  
357 5% 29%  
358 3% 24%  
359 3% 21%  
360 2% 18%  
361 2% 16%  
362 2% 14%  
363 3% 11%  
364 2% 9%  
365 1.3% 6%  
366 1.0% 5%  
367 0.7% 4%  
368 0.7% 3%  
369 0.4% 3%  
370 0.5% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.5%  
373 0.2% 1.2%  
374 0.1% 1.0%  
375 0.1% 0.9%  
376 0.1% 0.8%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.6%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.3%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.1%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0.2% 99.0%  
295 0.2% 98.8%  
296 0.2% 98.6%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.5% 97%  
300 1.3% 97%  
301 0.9% 96%  
302 1.2% 95%  
303 1.4% 93%  
304 2% 92%  
305 2% 91%  
306 2% 88%  
307 3% 86%  
308 3% 83%  
309 4% 80%  
310 3% 76%  
311 5% 73%  
312 3% 68%  
313 5% 65%  
314 9% 60%  
315 5% 51%  
316 3% 47% Median
317 6% 43%  
318 3% 37%  
319 3% 34%  
320 5% 31%  
321 4% 25%  
322 4% 22%  
323 4% 18%  
324 3% 14%  
325 3% 11%  
326 1.4% 9% Last Result
327 1.3% 7%  
328 2% 6%  
329 1.0% 4%  
330 1.0% 3%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.3%  
334 0.3% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.2% 0.5%  
337 0.2% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.3% 99.1%  
295 0.5% 98.8%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 1.0% 98%  
298 0.8% 97%  
299 1.3% 96%  
300 2% 95%  
301 2% 93%  
302 2% 91%  
303 3% 89%  
304 3% 87%  
305 3% 83%  
306 4% 81%  
307 6% 77%  
308 5% 71%  
309 3% 66%  
310 6% 63%  
311 5% 58%  
312 6% 53% Median
313 4% 47%  
314 4% 43%  
315 7% 39%  
316 4% 32%  
317 4% 28%  
318 4% 25%  
319 3% 20%  
320 2% 17%  
321 3% 15%  
322 2% 12%  
323 1.4% 10%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.3% 7%  
326 1.3% 5%  
327 0.8% 4%  
328 0.8% 3%  
329 0.5% 3%  
330 0.4% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 1.0%  
334 0.2% 0.9%  
335 0.1% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0.1% 99.5%  
268 0.1% 99.5%  
269 0% 99.4%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0% 99.3%  
272 0.1% 99.3%  
273 0.1% 99.2%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0.1% 99.0%  
276 0.2% 98.8%  
277 0.2% 98.7%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.3% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.6% 98%  
282 0.5% 97%  
283 1.2% 96%  
284 1.4% 95%  
285 2% 94%  
286 1.4% 92%  
287 3% 91%  
288 1.3% 88%  
289 3% 87%  
290 3% 83%  
291 4% 80%  
292 4% 76%  
293 5% 72%  
294 4% 67%  
295 4% 63%  
296 6% 59%  
297 5% 53%  
298 4% 48% Median
299 4% 44%  
300 4% 40% Last Result
301 5% 35%  
302 5% 30%  
303 5% 26%  
304 4% 21%  
305 3% 17%  
306 2% 14%  
307 2% 12%  
308 2% 10%  
309 2% 8%  
310 1.3% 6%  
311 1.3% 5%  
312 1.0% 3%  
313 0.5% 2%  
314 0.5% 2%  
315 0.4% 1.4%  
316 0.2% 1.0%  
317 0.2% 0.7%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.2% 99.8%  
233 0.2% 99.6%  
234 0.2% 99.4%  
235 0.3% 99.2%  
236 0.4% 98.8%  
237 0.9% 98%  
238 1.0% 98%  
239 0.8% 97%  
240 1.2% 96%  
241 2% 95%  
242 1.4% 92%  
243 3% 91%  
244 2% 88%  
245 3% 86%  
246 5% 83%  
247 5% 78%  
248 4% 73%  
249 4% 69%  
250 4% 65%  
251 7% 61%  
252 4% 54%  
253 4% 50% Median
254 6% 46%  
255 4% 40%  
256 7% 36%  
257 3% 29%  
258 3% 25%  
259 4% 23%  
260 3% 18%  
261 3% 15%  
262 2% 12%  
263 1.5% 10%  
264 2% 8%  
265 0.9% 6%  
266 2% 5%  
267 0.8% 4%  
268 0.6% 3%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.3% 1.4%  
272 0.2% 1.1%  
273 0.1% 0.9%  
274 0.2% 0.8%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.2% 99.7%  
176 0.3% 99.5%  
177 0.3% 99.1%  
178 0.6% 98.9%  
179 0.8% 98%  
180 1.2% 97%  
181 1.0% 96%  
182 1.1% 95%  
183 2% 94%  
184 2% 92%  
185 4% 90%  
186 2% 86%  
187 2% 83%  
188 7% 81%  
189 5% 74%  
190 5% 69%  
191 4% 64%  
192 5% 60%  
193 8% 55% Median
194 6% 47%  
195 4% 41%  
196 4% 38%  
197 7% 34%  
198 5% 27%  
199 3% 22%  
200 2% 19%  
201 4% 17%  
202 3% 13%  
203 2% 10%  
204 1.4% 8%  
205 1.2% 6%  
206 1.4% 5%  
207 1.3% 4%  
208 0.5% 2%  
209 0.3% 2%  
210 0.5% 2%  
211 0.4% 1.1%  
212 0.2% 0.8%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.4%  
215 0.1% 0.3%  
216 0.1% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0.1% 99.5%  
142 0.1% 99.5%  
143 0.1% 99.4%  
144 0.1% 99.3%  
145 0.1% 99.3%  
146 0.1% 99.2%  
147 0.1% 99.1%  
148 0% 99.0%  
149 0% 99.0%  
150 0% 98.9%  
151 0% 98.9%  
152 0% 98.9%  
153 0% 98.9%  
154 0% 98.8%  
155 0% 98.8%  
156 0% 98.8%  
157 0% 98.8%  
158 0% 98.7%  
159 0.1% 98.7%  
160 0.1% 98.6%  
161 0.3% 98%  
162 0.3% 98%  
163 0.3% 98%  
164 0.5% 98%  
165 0.7% 97%  
166 0.9% 96%  
167 2% 95%  
168 2% 94%  
169 4% 92%  
170 2% 88%  
171 2% 86%  
172 3% 83%  
173 3% 80%  
174 3% 77%  
175 6% 74%  
176 8% 68%  
177 7% 60%  
178 6% 53%  
179 5% 47% Median
180 5% 43%  
181 4% 38%  
182 5% 34%  
183 4% 29%  
184 6% 25%  
185 5% 19%  
186 3% 14%  
187 2% 11%  
188 2% 9%  
189 1.3% 7%  
190 1.2% 6%  
191 0.9% 5%  
192 1.3% 4%  
193 0.9% 2%  
194 0.5% 1.5%  
195 0.3% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations