Opinion Poll by Kantar, 13–19 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 28.0–30.6% 27.7–31.0% 27.4–31.3% 26.8–31.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 211–230 208–233 206–235 202–240
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 128 120–136 118–138 116–140 113–144
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 121 113–128 111–131 109–133 106–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 70–82 68–84 66–86 64–89
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 54–68 52–70 50–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 43–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 46–56 44–58 43–59 41–62

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0.1% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.7%  
202 0.2% 99.5%  
203 0.4% 99.4%  
204 0.6% 98.9%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.8% 98%  
207 1.1% 97%  
208 1.1% 96%  
209 1.3% 95%  
210 2% 94%  
211 2% 91%  
212 4% 89%  
213 4% 85%  
214 4% 81%  
215 4% 77%  
216 3% 74%  
217 5% 71%  
218 5% 66%  
219 6% 61%  
220 7% 55% Median
221 6% 48%  
222 5% 42%  
223 4% 37%  
224 3% 33%  
225 4% 29%  
226 5% 25%  
227 4% 20%  
228 3% 16%  
229 3% 13%  
230 2% 10%  
231 2% 9%  
232 1.1% 7%  
233 2% 6%  
234 1.3% 4%  
235 0.7% 3%  
236 0.8% 2%  
237 0.4% 1.3%  
238 0.2% 0.9%  
239 0.2% 0.7%  
240 0.1% 0.5%  
241 0.1% 0.4%  
242 0.1% 0.3%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.4% 99.3%  
115 0.5% 98.8%  
116 1.2% 98%  
117 1.3% 97%  
118 2% 96%  
119 2% 94%  
120 3% 92%  
121 3% 89%  
122 4% 86%  
123 5% 81%  
124 5% 76%  
125 6% 72%  
126 7% 66%  
127 6% 59%  
128 7% 53% Median
129 6% 47%  
130 6% 40%  
131 6% 34%  
132 5% 28%  
133 5% 23%  
134 3% 18%  
135 4% 15%  
136 2% 11%  
137 3% 9%  
138 2% 6%  
139 1.5% 5%  
140 0.8% 3%  
141 0.8% 2%  
142 0.5% 2%  
143 0.5% 1.1%  
144 0.2% 0.6%  
145 0.2% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.5% 99.2%  
108 0.7% 98.7%  
109 0.9% 98%  
110 2% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 2% 93%  
113 3% 92%  
114 4% 89%  
115 4% 84%  
116 5% 81%  
117 6% 76%  
118 7% 70%  
119 6% 63%  
120 5% 57%  
121 8% 52% Median
122 7% 44%  
123 6% 38%  
124 6% 32%  
125 6% 26%  
126 5% 20%  
127 3% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 3% 9%  
130 1.5% 7%  
131 1.2% 5%  
132 1.3% 4%  
133 0.8% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.2%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.8% 99.0%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 95%  
69 3% 93%  
70 4% 90%  
71 5% 86%  
72 9% 81%  
73 6% 72%  
74 9% 67%  
75 8% 58% Median
76 7% 50%  
77 7% 42%  
78 7% 35%  
79 8% 29%  
80 4% 21%  
81 5% 17%  
82 4% 12%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.9% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.9%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 5% 88%  
57 7% 83%  
58 8% 76%  
59 8% 68%  
60 10% 60% Median
61 8% 50%  
62 8% 42%  
63 8% 34%  
64 6% 26%  
65 6% 19%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.5% 4% Last Result
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 1.1% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 6% 90%  
49 6% 84%  
50 7% 78%  
51 11% 71%  
52 9% 59%  
53 7% 50% Median
54 9% 43%  
55 9% 34%  
56 6% 25%  
57 5% 19%  
58 5% 14%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.3% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.7% 99.2%  
43 2% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 4% 95%  
46 5% 91% Last Result
47 7% 87%  
48 8% 79%  
49 9% 71%  
50 10% 62%  
51 10% 53% Median
52 9% 43%  
53 8% 34%  
54 7% 26%  
55 5% 19%  
56 4% 14%  
57 3% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.4%  
62 0.3% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 511–529 508–532 506–534 502–538
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 452 100% 442–462 440–465 437–467 433–472
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 445 100% 435–455 432–457 430–459 425–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 400 100% 390–410 387–413 384–415 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 399 100% 389–410 387–412 384–415 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 392 100% 382–402 379–405 376–407 372–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 347 17% 337–357 334–360 331–363 327–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0% 314–334 311–337 309–340 304–345
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 309 0% 299–319 296–322 294–325 289–330
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 302 0% 291–312 289–315 286–317 281–322
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 248 0% 239–259 236–261 233–264 229–268
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 180–198 177–200 175–203 171–207
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 181 0% 172–190 169–192 167–195 163–199

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 99.9%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0.1% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.8%  
501 0.2% 99.7%  
502 0.2% 99.5%  
503 0.3% 99.3%  
504 0.4% 99.0%  
505 0.6% 98.5%  
506 0.7% 98%  
507 1.0% 97%  
508 2% 96%  
509 2% 95%  
510 2% 93%  
511 3% 91%  
512 3% 88%  
513 3% 85%  
514 5% 82%  
515 4% 77%  
516 4% 74%  
517 6% 69%  
518 6% 63%  
519 5% 58%  
520 6% 53% Median
521 5% 47%  
522 4% 42%  
523 7% 37%  
524 5% 31%  
525 4% 26%  
526 4% 22%  
527 4% 18%  
528 3% 14%  
529 2% 11%  
530 2% 9%  
531 2% 7%  
532 2% 5%  
533 0.8% 3%  
534 0.8% 3%  
535 0.6% 2%  
536 0.5% 1.2%  
537 0.2% 0.8%  
538 0.2% 0.6%  
539 0.2% 0.4%  
540 0.1% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0.2% 99.7%  
433 0.2% 99.5%  
434 0.4% 99.3%  
435 0.3% 98.8%  
436 0.6% 98.5%  
437 0.8% 98%  
438 1.0% 97%  
439 1.0% 96%  
440 1.2% 95%  
441 2% 94%  
442 3% 92%  
443 2% 89%  
444 2% 87%  
445 4% 84%  
446 4% 81%  
447 6% 77%  
448 3% 71%  
449 4% 68%  
450 6% 64%  
451 6% 58%  
452 6% 52% Median
453 3% 46%  
454 4% 43%  
455 5% 38%  
456 5% 33%  
457 4% 27%  
458 3% 23%  
459 4% 21%  
460 4% 17%  
461 2% 12%  
462 1.3% 10%  
463 2% 9%  
464 1.4% 7%  
465 1.2% 5%  
466 1.2% 4%  
467 0.6% 3%  
468 0.7% 2%  
469 0.5% 2%  
470 0.3% 1.1%  
471 0.2% 0.8%  
472 0.2% 0.6%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.1% 99.7%  
425 0.2% 99.6%  
426 0.3% 99.4%  
427 0.4% 99.1%  
428 0.5% 98.7%  
429 0.7% 98%  
430 0.7% 98%  
431 2% 97%  
432 1.0% 95%  
433 2% 94%  
434 2% 93%  
435 3% 91%  
436 3% 88%  
437 2% 85%  
438 3% 83%  
439 5% 79%  
440 5% 74%  
441 3% 70%  
442 6% 67%  
443 5% 61%  
444 6% 56%  
445 4% 50% Median
446 5% 46%  
447 5% 41%  
448 6% 36%  
449 3% 31%  
450 6% 27%  
451 3% 21%  
452 2% 18%  
453 3% 16%  
454 2% 12%  
455 3% 11%  
456 3% 8%  
457 1.1% 5%  
458 0.9% 4%  
459 1.0% 3%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.3% 1.4%  
463 0.4% 1.1%  
464 0.2% 0.7%  
465 0.2% 0.5%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0.1% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.2% 99.6%  
380 0.2% 99.5%  
381 0.3% 99.3%  
382 0.3% 98.9%  
383 0.6% 98.6%  
384 0.6% 98%  
385 1.0% 97%  
386 0.9% 96%  
387 2% 95%  
388 2% 94%  
389 2% 92%  
390 2% 90%  
391 3% 88%  
392 4% 85%  
393 4% 82%  
394 3% 78%  
395 4% 75%  
396 6% 71%  
397 4% 65%  
398 5% 61%  
399 6% 56% Median
400 5% 50%  
401 5% 45%  
402 5% 40%  
403 4% 36%  
404 4% 32%  
405 4% 27%  
406 4% 23%  
407 3% 19%  
408 3% 16%  
409 2% 13%  
410 3% 11%  
411 1.5% 8%  
412 1.4% 6%  
413 1.1% 5%  
414 1.0% 4%  
415 0.6% 3%  
416 0.6% 2%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.5% 1.3%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
421 0.2% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.3% 99.5%  
381 0.4% 99.2%  
382 0.5% 98.8%  
383 0.8% 98%  
384 0.7% 98%  
385 0.9% 97%  
386 0.9% 96%  
387 1.3% 95%  
388 2% 94%  
389 2% 92%  
390 3% 90%  
391 3% 86%  
392 4% 84%  
393 2% 80%  
394 4% 78%  
395 5% 74%  
396 6% 69%  
397 5% 63%  
398 5% 58%  
399 5% 53% Last Result, Median
400 3% 48%  
401 6% 45%  
402 4% 39%  
403 6% 35%  
404 4% 29%  
405 4% 25%  
406 3% 21%  
407 3% 18%  
408 3% 15%  
409 2% 13%  
410 3% 11%  
411 2% 8%  
412 1.1% 6%  
413 1.2% 5%  
414 0.8% 4%  
415 0.8% 3%  
416 0.5% 2%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.3% 1.1%  
419 0.2% 0.7%  
420 0.2% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.5%  
373 0.4% 99.3%  
374 0.2% 98.9%  
375 0.7% 98.7%  
376 0.6% 98%  
377 0.7% 97%  
378 1.2% 97%  
379 1.2% 96%  
380 0.9% 94%  
381 3% 93%  
382 2% 90%  
383 4% 89%  
384 3% 85%  
385 2% 82%  
386 6% 80%  
387 4% 74%  
388 4% 71%  
389 6% 67%  
390 3% 61%  
391 6% 57%  
392 5% 52% Median
393 3% 46%  
394 6% 43%  
395 4% 37%  
396 6% 33%  
397 4% 28%  
398 2% 23%  
399 4% 21%  
400 3% 17%  
401 2% 14%  
402 3% 11%  
403 2% 9%  
404 1.1% 7%  
405 2% 6%  
406 0.5% 4%  
407 0.9% 3%  
408 0.8% 2%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.3% 1.2%  
411 0.2% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.3% 99.6%  
328 0.4% 99.3%  
329 0.3% 99.0%  
330 0.4% 98.6%  
331 0.9% 98%  
332 1.1% 97%  
333 0.9% 96%  
334 0.9% 95%  
335 1.5% 95%  
336 2% 93%  
337 2% 91%  
338 3% 88%  
339 2% 86%  
340 3% 84% Last Result
341 7% 81%  
342 3% 74%  
343 3% 70%  
344 4% 67%  
345 7% 63%  
346 6% 57% Median
347 4% 50%  
348 4% 46%  
349 5% 42%  
350 6% 37%  
351 4% 31%  
352 3% 27%  
353 3% 24%  
354 4% 21%  
355 4% 17% Majority
356 3% 14%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 10%  
359 2% 7%  
360 1.2% 5%  
361 0.7% 4%  
362 0.6% 3%  
363 0.9% 3%  
364 0.7% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.2%  
366 0.2% 0.9%  
367 0.2% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.5%  
369 0.2% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.2% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.2% 99.4%  
306 0.4% 99.2%  
307 0.5% 98.8%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.8% 98%  
310 1.3% 97%  
311 1.1% 96%  
312 2% 94%  
313 2% 93%  
314 2% 91%  
315 3% 89%  
316 2% 85%  
317 4% 83%  
318 5% 80%  
319 3% 75%  
320 5% 72%  
321 5% 67%  
322 4% 62%  
323 4% 58%  
324 6% 54% Median
325 6% 47%  
326 5% 42% Last Result
327 4% 37%  
328 5% 33%  
329 5% 28%  
330 3% 24%  
331 3% 21%  
332 4% 18%  
333 2% 14%  
334 2% 12%  
335 2% 10%  
336 1.2% 7%  
337 2% 6%  
338 0.9% 4%  
339 0.8% 3%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.2% 0.9%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.2% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.4%  
291 0.5% 99.2%  
292 0.4% 98.7%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 0.6% 98%  
295 1.0% 97%  
296 1.1% 96%  
297 1.4% 95%  
298 1.5% 94%  
299 3% 92%  
300 2% 89%  
301 3% 87%  
302 3% 84%  
303 4% 81%  
304 4% 77%  
305 4% 73%  
306 4% 68%  
307 5% 64%  
308 5% 60%  
309 5% 55% Median
310 6% 50%  
311 5% 44%  
312 4% 39%  
313 6% 35%  
314 4% 29%  
315 3% 25%  
316 4% 22%  
317 4% 18%  
318 3% 15%  
319 2% 12%  
320 2% 10%  
321 2% 8%  
322 2% 6%  
323 0.9% 5%  
324 1.0% 4%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.6% 2%  
327 0.3% 1.4%  
328 0.3% 1.1%  
329 0.2% 0.7%  
330 0.2% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.2% 99.6%  
282 0.2% 99.4%  
283 0.3% 99.2%  
284 0.7% 98.9%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 1.1% 97%  
288 0.7% 96%  
289 2% 95%  
290 2% 93%  
291 2% 92%  
292 3% 90%  
293 2% 86%  
294 3% 85%  
295 5% 82%  
296 4% 77%  
297 5% 74%  
298 4% 69%  
299 6% 65%  
300 3% 59% Last Result
301 5% 56%  
302 6% 50% Median
303 6% 44%  
304 3% 38%  
305 5% 35%  
306 5% 30%  
307 3% 25%  
308 4% 22%  
309 3% 18%  
310 3% 15%  
311 2% 12%  
312 3% 11%  
313 2% 8%  
314 1.0% 6%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 1.2% 4%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.1%  
321 0.2% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.3% 99.5%  
231 0.4% 99.2%  
232 0.5% 98.8%  
233 0.9% 98%  
234 0.8% 97%  
235 1.1% 97%  
236 2% 96%  
237 1.1% 94%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 2% 89%  
241 3% 86%  
242 3% 83%  
243 5% 80%  
244 3% 74%  
245 5% 71%  
246 6% 67%  
247 4% 61%  
248 7% 57%  
249 5% 50% Median
250 5% 45%  
251 5% 40%  
252 4% 35%  
253 4% 30%  
254 4% 26%  
255 4% 22%  
256 3% 18%  
257 3% 15%  
258 3% 13%  
259 2% 10%  
260 2% 8%  
261 2% 6%  
262 1.1% 5%  
263 0.9% 3%  
264 0.7% 3%  
265 0.5% 2%  
266 0.4% 1.4%  
267 0.3% 1.0%  
268 0.2% 0.7%  
269 0.1% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.2% 99.8%  
171 0.2% 99.6%  
172 0.3% 99.4%  
173 0.6% 99.1%  
174 0.5% 98.6%  
175 0.6% 98%  
176 1.2% 97%  
177 1.4% 96%  
178 2% 95%  
179 2% 93%  
180 2% 91%  
181 4% 88%  
182 4% 84%  
183 4% 80%  
184 5% 77%  
185 5% 72%  
186 5% 67%  
187 5% 62%  
188 5% 57% Median
189 6% 52%  
190 5% 46%  
191 6% 41%  
192 6% 35%  
193 5% 30%  
194 5% 25%  
195 4% 20%  
196 3% 16%  
197 3% 13%  
198 2% 10%  
199 2% 8%  
200 1.5% 6%  
201 1.2% 5%  
202 0.9% 3%  
203 0.9% 3%  
204 0.4% 2%  
205 0.4% 1.3%  
206 0.3% 0.8%  
207 0.1% 0.6%  
208 0.2% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.2% 99.6%  
164 0.3% 99.4%  
165 0.4% 99.2%  
166 0.7% 98.8%  
167 0.7% 98%  
168 1.2% 97%  
169 1.4% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 2% 93%  
172 3% 91%  
173 2% 88%  
174 4% 85%  
175 4% 81%  
176 5% 77%  
177 5% 73%  
178 4% 68%  
179 6% 63%  
180 6% 58%  
181 6% 52% Median
182 6% 46%  
183 6% 40%  
184 3% 34%  
185 6% 31%  
186 4% 24%  
187 4% 21%  
188 3% 16%  
189 3% 13%  
190 2% 10%  
191 2% 8%  
192 1.4% 6%  
193 1.2% 5%  
194 0.9% 4%  
195 0.7% 3%  
196 0.7% 2%  
197 0.4% 1.3%  
198 0.3% 0.9%  
199 0.2% 0.6%  
200 0.1% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations