Opinion Poll by Forsa, 17–21 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 27.9–30.6% 27.6–31.0% 27.3–31.3% 26.6–32.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 230 218–244 214–248 212–252 207–258
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 149 139–160 136–163 134–167 130–171
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 126 117–136 114–139 112–142 108–146
Alternative für Deutschland 94 71 64–78 62–80 61–82 58–87
Die Linke 69 56 49–62 48–64 46–66 44–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 48–60 46–62 44–63 42–67
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 39 0–43 0–45 0–46 0–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.7%  
206 0.1% 99.6%  
207 0.2% 99.5%  
208 0.3% 99.3%  
209 0.3% 99.0%  
210 0.5% 98.7%  
211 0.4% 98%  
212 1.0% 98%  
213 0.8% 97%  
214 1.2% 96%  
215 1.0% 95%  
216 2% 94%  
217 2% 92%  
218 2% 90%  
219 3% 88%  
220 3% 86%  
221 3% 83%  
222 3% 80%  
223 4% 77%  
224 3% 73%  
225 4% 70%  
226 4% 67%  
227 3% 63%  
228 5% 60%  
229 2% 55%  
230 3% 53% Median
231 3% 49%  
232 4% 47%  
233 3% 43%  
234 4% 39%  
235 2% 36%  
236 3% 34%  
237 3% 31%  
238 3% 28%  
239 3% 25%  
240 3% 22%  
241 2% 19%  
242 3% 17%  
243 3% 14%  
244 2% 12%  
245 1.1% 10%  
246 1.2% 9%  
247 1.5% 7%  
248 0.9% 6%  
249 1.3% 5%  
250 0.7% 4%  
251 0.5% 3%  
252 0.6% 3%  
253 0.4% 2%  
254 0.3% 2%  
255 0.3% 1.2%  
256 0.3% 0.9%  
257 0.1% 0.7%  
258 0.1% 0.5%  
259 0.1% 0.4%  
260 0.1% 0.3%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.6%  
131 0.2% 99.4%  
132 0.4% 99.3%  
133 0.4% 98.9%  
134 1.0% 98%  
135 1.3% 97%  
136 2% 96%  
137 2% 95%  
138 2% 93%  
139 3% 91%  
140 1.4% 88%  
141 2% 87%  
142 2% 85%  
143 3% 83%  
144 4% 81%  
145 4% 76%  
146 6% 72%  
147 6% 66%  
148 7% 60%  
149 7% 53% Median
150 4% 47%  
151 3% 43%  
152 2% 40%  
153 2% 37%  
154 3% 35%  
155 4% 32%  
156 5% 28%  
157 4% 23%  
158 5% 19%  
159 3% 14%  
160 3% 11%  
161 2% 8%  
162 1.1% 7%  
163 0.8% 5%  
164 0.7% 5%  
165 0.5% 4%  
166 0.6% 4%  
167 0.6% 3%  
168 0.6% 2%  
169 0.6% 2%  
170 0.4% 1.2%  
171 0.3% 0.7%  
172 0.2% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.3% 99.7%  
109 0.4% 99.4%  
110 0.4% 99.1%  
111 0.7% 98.6%  
112 0.9% 98%  
113 1.1% 97%  
114 1.2% 96%  
115 2% 95%  
116 2% 92%  
117 2% 91%  
118 2% 88%  
119 4% 86%  
120 4% 81%  
121 4% 77%  
122 4% 73%  
123 6% 69%  
124 6% 63%  
125 6% 57%  
126 4% 50% Median
127 6% 47%  
128 3% 41%  
129 7% 38%  
130 3% 32%  
131 5% 29%  
132 3% 24%  
133 5% 22%  
134 2% 17%  
135 3% 15%  
136 2% 12%  
137 2% 10%  
138 2% 8%  
139 1.4% 6%  
140 1.3% 5%  
141 0.6% 3%  
142 1.1% 3%  
143 0.3% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.3%  
145 0.3% 0.9%  
146 0.2% 0.6%  
147 0.1% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.5% 99.4%  
60 0.5% 99.0%  
61 1.5% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 5% 93%  
65 3% 88%  
66 5% 85%  
67 4% 80%  
68 7% 76%  
69 6% 69%  
70 7% 63%  
71 7% 56% Median
72 6% 50%  
73 7% 43%  
74 7% 37%  
75 6% 30%  
76 4% 23%  
77 5% 19%  
78 5% 14%  
79 2% 10%  
80 2% 7%  
81 1.5% 5%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.2%  
86 0.3% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 0.8% 99.3%  
46 1.4% 98.5%  
47 2% 97%  
48 3% 95%  
49 3% 92%  
50 6% 89%  
51 5% 84%  
52 7% 79%  
53 7% 72%  
54 8% 65%  
55 7% 58%  
56 8% 50% Median
57 9% 42%  
58 6% 33%  
59 7% 27%  
60 5% 20%  
61 4% 15%  
62 3% 12%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.5% 4%  
66 0.9% 3%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.3%  
44 1.2% 98.7%  
45 1.5% 97%  
46 3% 96% Last Result
47 3% 93%  
48 5% 90%  
49 5% 85%  
50 8% 81%  
51 7% 72%  
52 8% 66%  
53 9% 58% Median
54 8% 49%  
55 9% 41%  
56 7% 33%  
57 7% 25%  
58 4% 19%  
59 5% 15%  
60 4% 11%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 0.9% 3%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.4%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0% 52%  
7 0% 52%  
8 0% 52%  
9 0% 52%  
10 0% 52%  
11 0% 52%  
12 0% 52%  
13 0% 52%  
14 0% 52%  
15 0% 52%  
16 0% 52%  
17 0% 52%  
18 0% 52%  
19 0% 52%  
20 0% 52%  
21 0% 52%  
22 0% 52%  
23 0% 52%  
24 0% 52%  
25 0% 52%  
26 0% 52%  
27 0% 52%  
28 0% 52%  
29 0% 52%  
30 0% 52%  
31 0% 52%  
32 0% 52%  
33 0% 52%  
34 0% 52%  
35 0% 52%  
36 0% 52%  
37 0% 52%  
38 0.5% 52%  
39 13% 51% Median
40 6% 38%  
41 11% 32%  
42 4% 21%  
43 7% 17%  
44 3% 10%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.4%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 556 100% 539–583 535–586 533–588 528–593
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 456 100% 440–470 437–473 433–476 428–481
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 433 100% 415–454 412–458 408–461 403–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 433 100% 417–447 413–451 409–454 404–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 410 100% 391–430 388–434 385–437 380–443
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 378 96% 360–394 356–398 353–401 347–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 355 52% 338–374 335–378 332–380 327–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 331 4% 315–349 311–353 308–356 303–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 307 0% 286–325 282–328 279–332 273–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 299 0% 277–317 274–320 272–323 265–329
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 276 0% 261–292 258–296 254–298 250–305
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 170–195 167–198 165–200 160–206
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 152 0% 125–170 122–173 120–175 115–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 100%  
518 0% 100%  
519 0% 100%  
520 0% 100%  
521 0% 100%  
522 0% 100%  
523 0% 100%  
524 0% 99.9%  
525 0.1% 99.9%  
526 0.1% 99.8%  
527 0.1% 99.7%  
528 0.2% 99.6%  
529 0.3% 99.4%  
530 0.4% 99.1%  
531 0.3% 98.8%  
532 0.5% 98%  
533 0.7% 98%  
534 1.0% 97%  
535 1.5% 96%  
536 1.3% 95%  
537 1.1% 93%  
538 2% 92%  
539 3% 91%  
540 2% 88%  
541 4% 86%  
542 3% 82%  
543 2% 79%  
544 3% 77%  
545 3% 75%  
546 4% 72%  
547 2% 67%  
548 3% 65%  
549 2% 62%  
550 3% 60%  
551 2% 57%  
552 2% 55%  
553 1.3% 53%  
554 0.9% 52%  
555 0.6% 51%  
556 0.9% 50%  
557 0.5% 49%  
558 0.3% 49% Median
559 0.3% 49%  
560 0.2% 48%  
561 0.2% 48%  
562 0.2% 48%  
563 0.2% 48%  
564 0.4% 47%  
565 0.7% 47%  
566 0.6% 46%  
567 0.8% 46%  
568 0.7% 45%  
569 1.3% 44%  
570 0.8% 43%  
571 1.5% 42%  
572 3% 41%  
573 4% 38%  
574 1.4% 34%  
575 2% 33%  
576 2% 31%  
577 2% 29%  
578 5% 27%  
579 3% 22%  
580 2% 19%  
581 2% 16%  
582 2% 14%  
583 3% 12%  
584 2% 9%  
585 2% 7%  
586 1.2% 6%  
587 1.1% 5%  
588 1.2% 4%  
589 0.6% 2%  
590 0.5% 2%  
591 0.4% 1.3%  
592 0.2% 0.9%  
593 0.3% 0.7%  
594 0.1% 0.4%  
595 0.1% 0.3%  
596 0.1% 0.2%  
597 0% 0.1%  
598 0% 0.1%  
599 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.2% 99.7%  
428 0.2% 99.5%  
429 0.2% 99.4%  
430 0.1% 99.2%  
431 0.2% 99.0%  
432 0.7% 98.8%  
433 0.8% 98%  
434 0.4% 97%  
435 0.7% 97%  
436 0.6% 96%  
437 1.4% 96%  
438 1.1% 94%  
439 0.8% 93%  
440 3% 92%  
441 1.2% 90%  
442 2% 89%  
443 1.3% 87%  
444 3% 86%  
445 4% 82%  
446 2% 79%  
447 2% 77%  
448 3% 75%  
449 2% 72%  
450 2% 70%  
451 3% 68%  
452 3% 65%  
453 5% 62%  
454 3% 57%  
455 3% 54%  
456 2% 51%  
457 3% 49%  
458 3% 46%  
459 4% 44%  
460 4% 39%  
461 3% 36%  
462 4% 33%  
463 1.4% 29%  
464 3% 28%  
465 3% 24%  
466 4% 22%  
467 3% 18%  
468 2% 16%  
469 2% 13%  
470 2% 11%  
471 1.2% 10% Median
472 2% 9%  
473 2% 7%  
474 1.2% 5%  
475 0.7% 4%  
476 0.6% 3%  
477 0.7% 2%  
478 0.4% 2%  
479 0.4% 1.3%  
480 0.2% 0.9%  
481 0.2% 0.6%  
482 0.1% 0.4%  
483 0.1% 0.3%  
484 0.1% 0.2%  
485 0.1% 0.2%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.6%  
404 0.3% 99.4%  
405 0.3% 99.1%  
406 0.3% 98.8%  
407 0.4% 98%  
408 0.7% 98%  
409 0.6% 97%  
410 0.8% 97%  
411 0.7% 96%  
412 2% 95%  
413 0.7% 93%  
414 2% 93%  
415 2% 91%  
416 2% 89%  
417 2% 87%  
418 2% 85%  
419 2% 83%  
420 4% 81%  
421 4% 77%  
422 2% 74%  
423 2% 72%  
424 3% 70%  
425 3% 67%  
426 2% 64%  
427 2% 63%  
428 2% 60%  
429 2% 58%  
430 1.1% 56%  
431 2% 55%  
432 2% 53% Median
433 2% 51%  
434 0.9% 49%  
435 1.3% 48%  
436 1.1% 46%  
437 2% 45%  
438 1.3% 43%  
439 0.9% 42%  
440 3% 41%  
441 1.2% 38%  
442 2% 37%  
443 1.3% 36%  
444 3% 34%  
445 3% 31%  
446 2% 28%  
447 2% 26%  
448 2% 24%  
449 2% 22%  
450 1.3% 20%  
451 2% 19%  
452 2% 16%  
453 3% 14%  
454 1.2% 11%  
455 2% 10%  
456 0.9% 8%  
457 1.1% 7%  
458 1.0% 6%  
459 1.0% 5%  
460 1.1% 4%  
461 0.6% 3%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.2% 2%  
464 0.4% 1.4%  
465 0.2% 1.0%  
466 0.3% 0.8%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.6%  
404 0.2% 99.5%  
405 0.2% 99.3%  
406 0.2% 99.0%  
407 0.3% 98.8%  
408 0.5% 98.6%  
409 0.6% 98%  
410 0.6% 97%  
411 0.8% 97%  
412 0.9% 96%  
413 0.9% 95%  
414 1.4% 94%  
415 1.3% 93%  
416 1.0% 92%  
417 3% 91%  
418 2% 88%  
419 2% 86%  
420 2% 84%  
421 3% 82%  
422 2% 78%  
423 2% 77%  
424 3% 74%  
425 2% 71%  
426 3% 69%  
427 4% 67%  
428 3% 63%  
429 3% 60%  
430 2% 58%  
431 2% 55%  
432 3% 53%  
433 3% 50%  
434 3% 47%  
435 2% 44%  
436 3% 42%  
437 3% 39%  
438 3% 36%  
439 3% 33%  
440 2% 31%  
441 5% 28%  
442 3% 24%  
443 3% 21%  
444 2% 18%  
445 2% 16%  
446 2% 14%  
447 2% 11%  
448 2% 10% Median
449 2% 8%  
450 1.4% 7%  
451 1.3% 5%  
452 0.7% 4%  
453 0.6% 3%  
454 0.7% 3%  
455 0.4% 2%  
456 0.3% 1.5%  
457 0.4% 1.2%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.2% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.3% 99.5%  
381 0.2% 99.2%  
382 0.2% 99.0%  
383 0.3% 98.7%  
384 0.4% 98%  
385 0.8% 98%  
386 0.9% 97%  
387 1.1% 96%  
388 0.6% 95%  
389 1.1% 95%  
390 2% 94%  
391 2% 92%  
392 1.1% 90%  
393 1.2% 89%  
394 2% 87%  
395 3% 85%  
396 2% 82%  
397 2% 80%  
398 3% 78%  
399 1.4% 75% Last Result
400 5% 74%  
401 2% 69%  
402 3% 67%  
403 2% 64%  
404 2% 62%  
405 3% 61%  
406 2% 57%  
407 2% 56%  
408 2% 54%  
409 2% 52% Median
410 2% 51%  
411 2% 49%  
412 1.4% 47%  
413 1.2% 46%  
414 2% 44%  
415 2% 43%  
416 1.2% 41%  
417 3% 40%  
418 2% 36%  
419 2% 34%  
420 2% 33%  
421 3% 30%  
422 2% 27%  
423 2% 26%  
424 2% 23%  
425 1.4% 21%  
426 2% 19%  
427 3% 17%  
428 2% 14%  
429 2% 12%  
430 1.1% 11%  
431 1.3% 9%  
432 1.3% 8%  
433 1.4% 7%  
434 0.9% 5%  
435 0.6% 5%  
436 1.1% 4%  
437 0.8% 3%  
438 0.6% 2%  
439 0.2% 1.4%  
440 0.3% 1.2%  
441 0.2% 0.9%  
442 0.2% 0.7%  
443 0.2% 0.6%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.4% 99.5%  
349 0.2% 99.0%  
350 0.4% 98.8%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.7% 98%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 0.7% 96% Majority
356 2% 95%  
357 0.7% 94%  
358 2% 93%  
359 1.1% 91%  
360 1.4% 90%  
361 2% 89%  
362 2% 87%  
363 2% 85%  
364 2% 83%  
365 3% 80%  
366 3% 78%  
367 1.3% 75%  
368 2% 73%  
369 2% 71%  
370 3% 69%  
371 2% 67%  
372 3% 64%  
373 3% 62%  
374 2% 59%  
375 2% 57%  
376 2% 55%  
377 2% 53%  
378 3% 51%  
379 2% 48%  
380 2% 45%  
381 1.4% 43%  
382 2% 42%  
383 3% 40%  
384 3% 37%  
385 3% 34%  
386 2% 31%  
387 2% 29%  
388 2% 26%  
389 3% 24%  
390 2% 21%  
391 3% 19%  
392 2% 16%  
393 2% 14% Median
394 2% 11%  
395 2% 9%  
396 1.1% 8%  
397 1.2% 7%  
398 1.1% 5%  
399 0.7% 4%  
400 1.0% 4%  
401 0.6% 3%  
402 0.5% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.4%  
404 0.2% 1.1%  
405 0.2% 0.9%  
406 0.2% 0.6%  
407 0.2% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.6%  
327 0.3% 99.5%  
328 0.2% 99.2%  
329 0.5% 99.0%  
330 0.2% 98.5%  
331 0.8% 98%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.8% 97%  
334 1.0% 96%  
335 0.9% 95%  
336 2% 94%  
337 2% 93%  
338 2% 91%  
339 2% 90%  
340 2% 88% Last Result
341 2% 86%  
342 1.1% 84%  
343 3% 83%  
344 3% 80%  
345 2% 77%  
346 2% 75%  
347 2% 72%  
348 3% 70%  
349 3% 67%  
350 3% 64%  
351 3% 61%  
352 2% 58%  
353 2% 56%  
354 2% 53% Median
355 2% 52% Majority
356 4% 50%  
357 1.4% 46%  
358 2% 45%  
359 2% 43%  
360 2% 41%  
361 2% 39%  
362 2% 36%  
363 2% 34%  
364 3% 32%  
365 3% 29%  
366 3% 26%  
367 1.2% 23%  
368 2% 22%  
369 1.4% 20%  
370 3% 19%  
371 2% 16%  
372 2% 14%  
373 2% 12%  
374 1.5% 10%  
375 1.0% 9%  
376 1.1% 8%  
377 0.5% 6%  
378 2% 6%  
379 0.7% 4%  
380 1.1% 4%  
381 0.4% 2%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.3% 1.4%  
385 0.2% 1.1%  
386 0.3% 0.8%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.7%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 0.2% 99.4%  
305 0.2% 99.1%  
306 0.3% 98.9%  
307 0.5% 98.6%  
308 0.6% 98%  
309 1.0% 97%  
310 0.7% 96%  
311 1.1% 96%  
312 1.2% 95%  
313 1.1% 93%  
314 2% 92%  
315 2% 91%  
316 2% 89%  
317 2% 86%  
318 3% 84%  
319 2% 81%  
320 3% 79%  
321 2% 76%  
322 2% 74%  
323 2% 71%  
324 3% 69%  
325 3% 66%  
326 3% 63%  
327 2% 60%  
328 1.4% 58%  
329 2% 57%  
330 2% 55%  
331 3% 52% Median
332 2% 49%  
333 2% 47%  
334 2% 45%  
335 2% 43%  
336 3% 41%  
337 3% 38%  
338 2% 36%  
339 3% 33%  
340 2% 31%  
341 2% 29%  
342 1.3% 27%  
343 3% 25%  
344 3% 22%  
345 2% 20%  
346 2% 17%  
347 2% 15%  
348 2% 13%  
349 1.4% 11%  
350 1.1% 10%  
351 2% 9%  
352 0.7% 7%  
353 2% 6%  
354 0.7% 5%  
355 0.8% 4% Majority
356 0.7% 3%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.2%  
361 0.4% 1.0%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.3% 99.4%  
276 0.3% 99.0%  
277 0.6% 98.7%  
278 0.5% 98%  
279 0.5% 98%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 0.8% 97%  
282 0.8% 96%  
283 0.8% 95%  
284 2% 94%  
285 2% 93%  
286 1.5% 91%  
287 2% 89%  
288 3% 87%  
289 1.4% 85%  
290 1.4% 83%  
291 2% 82%  
292 2% 79%  
293 2% 77%  
294 3% 75%  
295 2% 72%  
296 2% 70%  
297 3% 68%  
298 1.3% 65%  
299 2% 64%  
300 2% 62%  
301 2% 60%  
302 2% 58%  
303 2% 57%  
304 2% 55%  
305 1.5% 53%  
306 2% 52%  
307 1.3% 50%  
308 2% 49%  
309 2% 47%  
310 2% 45%  
311 2% 43%  
312 3% 41%  
313 2% 39%  
314 2% 37%  
315 3% 35%  
316 3% 32%  
317 2% 29%  
318 2% 27%  
319 2% 24%  
320 2% 22%  
321 4% 20%  
322 1.5% 16% Median
323 2% 15%  
324 2% 13%  
325 1.2% 11%  
326 3% 10% Last Result
327 0.7% 7%  
328 2% 6%  
329 0.6% 4%  
330 0.7% 4%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.7% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.4%  
335 0.3% 1.1%  
336 0.2% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.2% 99.2%  
268 0.2% 99.0%  
269 0.4% 98.8%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0.7% 98%  
273 0.8% 97%  
274 1.4% 96%  
275 2% 95%  
276 2% 93%  
277 0.8% 91%  
278 1.3% 90%  
279 1.4% 89%  
280 1.3% 87%  
281 2% 86%  
282 3% 84%  
283 2% 81%  
284 3% 79%  
285 4% 77%  
286 2% 73%  
287 2% 71%  
288 2% 69%  
289 2% 67%  
290 1.5% 66%  
291 3% 64%  
292 2% 62%  
293 1.2% 60%  
294 2% 58%  
295 2% 57%  
296 1.5% 55%  
297 2% 53%  
298 1.4% 52%  
299 2% 50%  
300 2% 48% Last Result
301 1.5% 47%  
302 2% 45%  
303 2% 43%  
304 3% 41%  
305 1.0% 38%  
306 2% 37%  
307 3% 35%  
308 3% 32%  
309 3% 29%  
310 3% 26%  
311 3% 24%  
312 2% 20%  
313 3% 18%  
314 2% 15% Median
315 2% 14%  
316 1.4% 12%  
317 2% 11%  
318 0.8% 9%  
319 2% 8%  
320 1.2% 6%  
321 1.2% 5%  
322 0.7% 4%  
323 0.7% 3%  
324 0.5% 2%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.2% 1.3%  
327 0.3% 1.0%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.6%  
251 0.4% 99.4%  
252 0.3% 99.0%  
253 0.7% 98.7%  
254 0.6% 98%  
255 0.7% 97%  
256 0.8% 97%  
257 0.6% 96%  
258 0.9% 95%  
259 2% 94%  
260 2% 93%  
261 3% 91%  
262 2% 89%  
263 3% 87%  
264 1.3% 84%  
265 3% 83%  
266 2% 80%  
267 2% 78%  
268 4% 76%  
269 3% 72%  
270 4% 70%  
271 4% 66%  
272 3% 62%  
273 3% 59%  
274 3% 56%  
275 3% 54% Median
276 4% 51%  
277 2% 47%  
278 4% 45%  
279 2% 42%  
280 3% 39%  
281 2% 37%  
282 3% 34%  
283 2% 31%  
284 3% 29%  
285 4% 26%  
286 2% 22%  
287 2% 20%  
288 2% 18%  
289 2% 16%  
290 1.4% 14%  
291 2% 13%  
292 2% 11%  
293 1.0% 9%  
294 1.3% 8%  
295 1.4% 7%  
296 1.0% 5%  
297 1.0% 4%  
298 0.8% 3%  
299 0.5% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.2% 1.3%  
303 0.3% 1.0%  
304 0.2% 0.7%  
305 0.2% 0.5%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.3% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.3%  
162 0.3% 99.1%  
163 0.5% 98.7%  
164 0.4% 98%  
165 1.3% 98%  
166 0.4% 97%  
167 2% 96%  
168 1.4% 94%  
169 1.1% 93%  
170 3% 92%  
171 3% 89%  
172 4% 86%  
173 3% 82%  
174 2% 79%  
175 4% 77%  
176 3% 72%  
177 5% 69%  
178 3% 65%  
179 5% 62%  
180 4% 57%  
181 3% 53%  
182 4% 50% Median
183 4% 46%  
184 3% 42%  
185 3% 39%  
186 4% 35%  
187 3% 32%  
188 4% 28%  
189 3% 25%  
190 4% 21%  
191 2% 17%  
192 2% 16%  
193 2% 13%  
194 2% 12%  
195 2% 10%  
196 2% 8%  
197 0.8% 6%  
198 1.2% 6%  
199 1.4% 4%  
200 0.7% 3%  
201 0.3% 2%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.5%  
204 0.3% 1.1%  
205 0.2% 0.8%  
206 0.3% 0.7%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.4% 99.4%  
117 0.4% 99.0%  
118 0.6% 98.6%  
119 0.5% 98%  
120 1.3% 98%  
121 0.7% 96%  
122 2% 95%  
123 2% 94%  
124 2% 92%  
125 3% 90%  
126 1.0% 87%  
127 4% 86%  
128 1.0% 82%  
129 5% 82%  
130 1.5% 77%  
131 3% 75%  
132 2% 72%  
133 4% 70%  
134 2% 67%  
135 2% 65%  
136 2% 62%  
137 2% 61%  
138 2% 59%  
139 1.2% 58%  
140 1.3% 56%  
141 0.6% 55%  
142 1.1% 54%  
143 0.3% 53%  
144 0.4% 53%  
145 0.3% 53%  
146 0.3% 52%  
147 0.2% 52%  
148 0.2% 52%  
149 0.2% 52%  
150 0.5% 51%  
151 0.5% 51%  
152 0.6% 51%  
153 0.7% 50%  
154 1.1% 49%  
155 1.1% 48%  
156 1.3% 47%  
157 1.2% 46%  
158 3% 45%  
159 2% 41%  
160 2% 39%  
161 3% 37%  
162 4% 34%  
163 3% 31%  
164 3% 27%  
165 4% 24% Median
166 4% 21%  
167 2% 17%  
168 2% 15%  
169 2% 13%  
170 3% 11%  
171 1.4% 8%  
172 1.3% 7%  
173 1.1% 5%  
174 0.8% 4%  
175 1.0% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.3%  
179 0.3% 0.9%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations