Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 21–24 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.8–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 209 200–218 197–222 195–225 190–228
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 118–136 115–137 114–139 111–143
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 119 111–127 109–129 108–132 103–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 74–88 73–91 72–93 69–96
Die Linke 69 67 61–73 60–76 58–77 57–80
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 58 51–63 49–65 47–66 45–68
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 48 43–53 41–55 40–56 38–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.7%  
190 0.3% 99.6%  
191 0.2% 99.4%  
192 0.3% 99.2%  
193 0.4% 98.9%  
194 0.3% 98%  
195 1.2% 98%  
196 0.8% 97%  
197 3% 96%  
198 2% 94%  
199 2% 92%  
200 1.1% 90% Last Result
201 4% 89%  
202 4% 85%  
203 6% 81%  
204 2% 75%  
205 7% 74%  
206 2% 67%  
207 4% 65%  
208 5% 60%  
209 6% 55% Median
210 5% 49%  
211 9% 43%  
212 3% 34%  
213 4% 31%  
214 3% 27%  
215 3% 24%  
216 5% 21%  
217 3% 16%  
218 3% 13%  
219 0.7% 10%  
220 1.3% 9%  
221 2% 8%  
222 2% 6%  
223 0.7% 5%  
224 1.2% 4%  
225 1.1% 3%  
226 0.8% 2%  
227 0.1% 0.9%  
228 0.3% 0.8%  
229 0.2% 0.5%  
230 0.1% 0.3%  
231 0.1% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.7%  
112 0.4% 99.4%  
113 0.5% 99.0%  
114 1.4% 98.5%  
115 3% 97%  
116 2% 94%  
117 0.5% 92%  
118 3% 91%  
119 1.5% 89%  
120 2% 87%  
121 5% 85%  
122 4% 80%  
123 7% 76%  
124 6% 69%  
125 5% 63%  
126 7% 58%  
127 6% 50% Median
128 9% 45%  
129 4% 36%  
130 3% 32%  
131 4% 29%  
132 4% 26%  
133 4% 22%  
134 4% 17%  
135 3% 13%  
136 5% 10%  
137 2% 6%  
138 0.8% 4%  
139 1.4% 3%  
140 0.8% 2%  
141 0.3% 1.1%  
142 0.2% 0.7%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.3% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 0.3% 99.3%  
106 1.0% 99.0%  
107 0.4% 98%  
108 0.7% 98%  
109 4% 97%  
110 1.4% 93%  
111 3% 92%  
112 5% 88%  
113 1.4% 83%  
114 4% 82%  
115 7% 78%  
116 3% 71%  
117 7% 67%  
118 10% 60%  
119 6% 51% Median
120 5% 44%  
121 7% 39%  
122 3% 32%  
123 6% 29%  
124 5% 23%  
125 3% 18%  
126 2% 15%  
127 5% 13%  
128 0.6% 8%  
129 2% 7%  
130 0.8% 5%  
131 1.1% 4%  
132 1.4% 3%  
133 0.3% 1.4%  
134 0.2% 1.0%  
135 0.4% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 1.0% 99.4%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 6% 94%  
75 2% 88%  
76 4% 86%  
77 5% 82%  
78 8% 78%  
79 4% 70%  
80 7% 66%  
81 8% 59%  
82 9% 51% Median
83 5% 42%  
84 9% 37%  
85 5% 28%  
86 8% 24%  
87 2% 15%  
88 4% 13%  
89 0.8% 10%  
90 4% 9%  
91 0.9% 5%  
92 1.1% 4%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 0.9% 2% Last Result
95 0.4% 1.3%  
96 0.3% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.5%  
58 0.4% 98%  
59 0.3% 97%  
60 6% 97%  
61 3% 91%  
62 2% 88%  
63 3% 85%  
64 11% 83%  
65 6% 71%  
66 8% 65%  
67 9% 58% Median
68 5% 49%  
69 13% 44% Last Result
70 5% 31%  
71 3% 27%  
72 4% 23%  
73 10% 19%  
74 2% 10%  
75 0.6% 8%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.4% 2%  
79 0.2% 1.3%  
80 0.8% 1.1%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
47 1.4% 98.5%  
48 1.4% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 94%  
51 3% 90%  
52 6% 87%  
53 4% 81%  
54 4% 78%  
55 8% 73%  
56 7% 65%  
57 7% 58%  
58 12% 51% Median
59 5% 38%  
60 8% 33%  
61 8% 25%  
62 3% 17%  
63 5% 14%  
64 4% 9%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.4%  
40 2% 98.8%  
41 3% 97%  
42 3% 95%  
43 7% 91%  
44 7% 85%  
45 7% 78%  
46 10% 71%  
47 9% 61%  
48 10% 52% Median
49 10% 42%  
50 9% 32%  
51 5% 23%  
52 6% 18%  
53 4% 12%  
54 3% 9%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.0% 3%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.4% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 512 100% 502–521 500–524 496–527 492–531
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 440 100% 431–451 429–453 425–456 418–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 433 100% 422–445 420–448 417–450 413–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 395 100% 385–407 383–410 380–413 374–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 393 100% 382–404 379–406 377–408 370–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 386 100% 373–397 371–399 368–401 364–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 349 19% 338–359 335–362 331–363 326–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 314 0% 303–325 300–329 297–330 291–335
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 314 0% 302–324 299–326 296–329 293–335
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 293 0% 283–305 280–307 278–311 272–315
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 245 0% 235–256 233–259 230–262 227–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 195 0% 184–204 181–206 180–209 175–213
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 174 0% 166–185 163–187 161–188 156–194

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 99.9%  
488 0.1% 99.9%  
489 0% 99.8%  
490 0.2% 99.8%  
491 0% 99.5%  
492 0.4% 99.5%  
493 0.1% 99.1%  
494 0.9% 99.0%  
495 0.3% 98%  
496 0.4% 98%  
497 0.5% 97%  
498 2% 97%  
499 0.3% 95%  
500 1.3% 95%  
501 4% 94%  
502 1.3% 90%  
503 2% 89%  
504 2% 87%  
505 3% 84%  
506 2% 81%  
507 4% 80%  
508 3% 76%  
509 7% 73%  
510 7% 66%  
511 5% 59%  
512 7% 54%  
513 6% 47% Median
514 3% 41%  
515 8% 39%  
516 3% 31%  
517 4% 28%  
518 4% 24%  
519 4% 19%  
520 3% 16%  
521 4% 13%  
522 1.0% 9%  
523 2% 8%  
524 1.4% 6%  
525 1.4% 5%  
526 0.4% 3%  
527 0.9% 3%  
528 0.8% 2%  
529 0.2% 1.0%  
530 0.2% 0.8%  
531 0.1% 0.5%  
532 0% 0.4%  
533 0.1% 0.4%  
534 0% 0.3%  
535 0% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.2%  
537 0% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0.1% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0.1% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0.1% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.4% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.3%  
420 0.1% 99.2%  
421 0.1% 99.0%  
422 0.1% 98.9%  
423 0.4% 98.8%  
424 0.8% 98%  
425 0.7% 98%  
426 0.8% 97%  
427 0.4% 96%  
428 0.3% 96%  
429 1.3% 95%  
430 3% 94%  
431 4% 91%  
432 4% 87%  
433 2% 83%  
434 2% 81%  
435 3% 79%  
436 5% 76%  
437 7% 71%  
438 6% 64%  
439 3% 58%  
440 5% 54%  
441 2% 50%  
442 6% 48% Median
443 2% 42%  
444 5% 40%  
445 7% 34%  
446 4% 27%  
447 1.2% 24%  
448 3% 22%  
449 3% 20%  
450 4% 17%  
451 4% 13%  
452 4% 10%  
453 1.3% 6%  
454 0.7% 5%  
455 0.2% 4%  
456 1.4% 4%  
457 0.9% 2%  
458 0.6% 1.4%  
459 0.2% 0.8%  
460 0.2% 0.6%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0.1% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.7%  
413 0.2% 99.6%  
414 0.2% 99.4%  
415 0.3% 99.3%  
416 0.5% 99.0%  
417 1.3% 98%  
418 0.8% 97%  
419 0.7% 96%  
420 2% 96%  
421 3% 94%  
422 5% 91%  
423 2% 87%  
424 3% 85%  
425 4% 82%  
426 4% 78%  
427 5% 74%  
428 4% 69%  
429 4% 65%  
430 5% 61%  
431 3% 56%  
432 2% 53%  
433 2% 50%  
434 4% 48% Median
435 2% 44%  
436 5% 42%  
437 3% 37%  
438 5% 34%  
439 2% 29%  
440 4% 27%  
441 3% 23%  
442 3% 19%  
443 3% 17%  
444 3% 13%  
445 2% 11%  
446 2% 8%  
447 2% 7%  
448 0.9% 5%  
449 0.9% 4%  
450 2% 3%  
451 0.2% 1.3%  
452 0.3% 1.1%  
453 0.1% 0.8%  
454 0.4% 0.7%  
455 0.2% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.2% 99.6%  
375 0.2% 99.4%  
376 0.2% 99.2%  
377 0.4% 98.9%  
378 0.5% 98%  
379 0.3% 98%  
380 1.0% 98%  
381 0.5% 97%  
382 1.0% 96%  
383 2% 95%  
384 2% 93%  
385 2% 90%  
386 2% 89%  
387 3% 87%  
388 4% 84%  
389 5% 80%  
390 2% 75%  
391 4% 73%  
392 3% 69%  
393 8% 66%  
394 4% 59%  
395 5% 55%  
396 5% 50%  
397 2% 45% Median
398 8% 42%  
399 2% 34%  
400 5% 32%  
401 2% 27%  
402 5% 26%  
403 1.4% 21%  
404 3% 19%  
405 5% 16%  
406 1.1% 11%  
407 3% 10%  
408 0.7% 7%  
409 1.2% 7%  
410 0.9% 5%  
411 1.0% 4%  
412 0.7% 3%  
413 0.7% 3%  
414 1.1% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.3% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.2% 99.7%  
370 0% 99.5%  
371 0.3% 99.5%  
372 0.1% 99.1%  
373 0.1% 99.0%  
374 0.6% 98.9%  
375 0.2% 98%  
376 0.5% 98%  
377 1.3% 98%  
378 0.5% 96%  
379 1.1% 96%  
380 1.0% 95%  
381 0.9% 94%  
382 4% 93%  
383 3% 89%  
384 2% 87%  
385 2% 84%  
386 2% 82%  
387 3% 80%  
388 5% 77%  
389 6% 72%  
390 5% 66%  
391 4% 61%  
392 3% 58%  
393 6% 55%  
394 8% 48% Median
395 2% 40%  
396 4% 39%  
397 4% 35%  
398 2% 31%  
399 6% 29% Last Result
400 4% 23%  
401 2% 19%  
402 2% 17%  
403 2% 15%  
404 4% 12%  
405 3% 8%  
406 1.2% 6%  
407 2% 4%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.6% 2%  
410 0.6% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.0%  
412 0.3% 0.8%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.2% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0% 99.6%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.4% 99.3%  
366 0.2% 98.9%  
367 1.0% 98.7%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 0.5% 97%  
370 2% 97%  
371 0.6% 95%  
372 2% 94%  
373 2% 92%  
374 1.1% 90%  
375 3% 89%  
376 3% 85%  
377 2% 82%  
378 2% 80%  
379 4% 78%  
380 4% 74%  
381 5% 71%  
382 4% 65%  
383 3% 61%  
384 3% 58%  
385 2% 55%  
386 4% 53% Median
387 8% 49%  
388 7% 41%  
389 4% 34%  
390 2% 30%  
391 2% 28%  
392 4% 26%  
393 4% 22%  
394 5% 18%  
395 2% 13%  
396 0.8% 11%  
397 1.0% 10%  
398 1.1% 9%  
399 4% 8%  
400 2% 5%  
401 0.2% 3%  
402 0.1% 2%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.7% 1.4%  
406 0.3% 0.7%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.4% 99.7%  
327 0.1% 99.2%  
328 0.2% 99.2%  
329 0.6% 98.9%  
330 0.7% 98%  
331 0.3% 98%  
332 0.5% 97%  
333 0.4% 97%  
334 1.4% 96%  
335 0.5% 95%  
336 1.0% 95%  
337 3% 94%  
338 3% 91%  
339 5% 88%  
340 2% 83% Last Result
341 4% 81%  
342 5% 76%  
343 5% 72%  
344 0.8% 67%  
345 3% 66%  
346 3% 63%  
347 4% 59%  
348 2% 56%  
349 5% 53% Median
350 11% 48%  
351 7% 38%  
352 4% 31%  
353 5% 27%  
354 4% 23%  
355 3% 19% Majority
356 2% 16%  
357 1.5% 14%  
358 3% 13%  
359 0.9% 10%  
360 2% 9%  
361 1.0% 8%  
362 3% 7%  
363 1.5% 4%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.4% 1.2%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.1% 99.4%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.1% 99.0%  
295 0.2% 98.9%  
296 0.6% 98.7%  
297 0.8% 98%  
298 0.4% 97%  
299 2% 97%  
300 1.2% 95%  
301 0.9% 94%  
302 3% 93%  
303 2% 90%  
304 3% 88%  
305 2% 85%  
306 1.2% 84%  
307 4% 82%  
308 7% 78%  
309 1.3% 72%  
310 3% 70%  
311 6% 67%  
312 7% 62%  
313 4% 55%  
314 3% 51%  
315 5% 48% Median
316 3% 43%  
317 4% 40%  
318 5% 36%  
319 6% 30%  
320 1.0% 25%  
321 3% 24%  
322 3% 20%  
323 3% 18%  
324 4% 15%  
325 2% 11%  
326 1.5% 9% Last Result
327 0.8% 8%  
328 2% 7%  
329 1.4% 6%  
330 2% 4%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.5% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.5%  
334 0.5% 1.2%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.2% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.3%  
295 1.1% 99.0%  
296 0.7% 98%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 1.0% 97%  
299 0.9% 96%  
300 1.2% 95%  
301 0.7% 93%  
302 3% 93%  
303 1.1% 90%  
304 5% 89%  
305 3% 84%  
306 1.4% 81%  
307 5% 79%  
308 2% 74%  
309 5% 73%  
310 2% 68%  
311 8% 66%  
312 2% 58%  
313 5% 55% Median
314 5% 50%  
315 4% 45%  
316 8% 41%  
317 3% 34%  
318 4% 31%  
319 2% 27%  
320 5% 25%  
321 4% 20%  
322 3% 16%  
323 2% 13%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 10%  
326 2% 7%  
327 1.0% 5%  
328 0.5% 4%  
329 1.0% 3%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.5% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.1%  
334 0.2% 0.8%  
335 0.2% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0.1% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.1% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.1% 99.2%  
276 0.2% 99.0%  
277 0.4% 98.8%  
278 2% 98%  
279 0.8% 97%  
280 2% 96%  
281 0.5% 94%  
282 3% 94%  
283 2% 91%  
284 2% 89%  
285 2% 87%  
286 6% 85%  
287 3% 80%  
288 5% 77%  
289 4% 71%  
290 2% 68%  
291 9% 65%  
292 3% 56%  
293 8% 53%  
294 2% 44% Median
295 2% 42%  
296 4% 40%  
297 5% 36%  
298 4% 31%  
299 1.1% 27%  
300 4% 26% Last Result
301 3% 21%  
302 6% 18%  
303 1.3% 12%  
304 1.1% 11%  
305 2% 10%  
306 1.4% 8%  
307 2% 6%  
308 0.4% 5%  
309 0.6% 4%  
310 0.9% 4%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 0.4% 2%  
313 0.2% 1.3%  
314 0.4% 1.0%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.7%  
227 0.4% 99.5%  
228 0.2% 99.1%  
229 0.9% 98.9%  
230 0.9% 98%  
231 0.6% 97%  
232 1.0% 97%  
233 0.9% 96%  
234 2% 95%  
235 3% 93%  
236 2% 90%  
237 2% 88%  
238 5% 86%  
239 1.0% 81%  
240 4% 80%  
241 3% 76%  
242 9% 73%  
243 6% 64%  
244 4% 58%  
245 6% 55%  
246 2% 49% Median
247 7% 47%  
248 4% 40%  
249 4% 36%  
250 6% 32%  
251 4% 26%  
252 2% 22%  
253 3% 20%  
254 3% 17%  
255 3% 15%  
256 3% 12%  
257 2% 9%  
258 2% 7%  
259 2% 5%  
260 0.4% 4%  
261 0.5% 3%  
262 1.1% 3%  
263 0.4% 2%  
264 0.3% 1.3%  
265 0.3% 0.9%  
266 0.1% 0.7%  
267 0.1% 0.5%  
268 0.2% 0.4%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.2% 99.8%  
175 0.3% 99.6%  
176 0.5% 99.3%  
177 0.2% 98.8%  
178 0.4% 98.6%  
179 0.6% 98%  
180 2% 98%  
181 0.9% 95%  
182 1.3% 94%  
183 2% 93%  
184 2% 91%  
185 4% 89%  
186 3% 85%  
187 3% 82%  
188 2% 79%  
189 2% 77%  
190 3% 74%  
191 7% 71%  
192 7% 64%  
193 2% 57%  
194 5% 55% Median
195 5% 50%  
196 3% 45%  
197 5% 42%  
198 6% 37%  
199 5% 31%  
200 3% 26%  
201 5% 24%  
202 3% 18%  
203 2% 15%  
204 3% 13%  
205 3% 9%  
206 2% 7%  
207 0.7% 5%  
208 2% 4%  
209 0.8% 3%  
210 0.5% 2%  
211 0.5% 1.3%  
212 0.2% 0.8%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.4%  
215 0.2% 0.3%  
216 0.1% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0% 99.8%  
150 0% 99.8%  
151 0% 99.8%  
152 0% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.2% 99.4%  
158 0.2% 99.3%  
159 0.3% 99.1%  
160 1.2% 98.7%  
161 1.5% 98%  
162 0.9% 96%  
163 2% 95%  
164 0.6% 94%  
165 1.4% 93%  
166 4% 92%  
167 4% 88%  
168 7% 84%  
169 3% 77%  
170 2% 73%  
171 4% 71%  
172 6% 68%  
173 9% 61%  
174 4% 52%  
175 5% 48% Median
176 5% 43%  
177 4% 38%  
178 3% 35%  
179 6% 31%  
180 5% 25%  
181 2% 20%  
182 4% 17%  
183 2% 13%  
184 1.0% 11%  
185 3% 10%  
186 1.5% 7%  
187 2% 5%  
188 0.5% 3%  
189 0.6% 2%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.4%  
192 0.1% 1.0%  
193 0.3% 0.9%  
194 0.3% 0.5%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations